2010 Fantasy GM: New York Yankees

After the Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time in over a decade last season, there was a tremendous sense of urgency and the organization acted accordingly. In arguably the biggest offseason in baseball history, the Yankees went out and spent over $400 million in free agents. The pricey additions – starters C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett and first baseman Mark Teixeira – have paid off thus far. A year ago, the Yankees were a team on the brink with some serious question marks. Now, they’re a game away from the World Series. Sabathia and Burnett bolstered the rotation and Teixeira proved to be the missing piece in the heart of the lineup. However the Yankees’ revival was reliant on a lot more than adding a few new pieces. Veteran stalwarts Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon drastically improved upon their 2008 campaigns, A-Rod overcame his playoff failures, and Mariano Rivera continued his ninth-inning domination.

Things are once again looking rosy for the Yankees as they make their push for their 27th World Series Championship, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some concerns looming on the horizon. The Yankees will have a number of issues to address this offseason including how to address 60% of their starting rotation, what paths to take with prized arms Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, and potentially having to fill all three outfield positions for 2010. I wouldn’t expect an encore performance of the Yankees’ free-spending offseason of 2009, but  I do anticipate a series of moves to address the aforementioned issues.

As a result, these are the moves I’d make this offseason if I were Brian Cashman…

The 2010 New York Yankees Fantasy GM

1. Sign SP Erik Bedard

After the Mariners’ success without Bedard this season, it’s highly unlikely they’ll offer him arbitration and pay him upwards of $8 million to come back and pitch for them again next season. Bedard, for all intents and purposes, has become the left-handed Rich Harden. A dominant pitcher when healthy, but rarely ever healthy. He made only 30 starts in his two years as a Mariner and underwent season-ending shoulder surgery this past August. There are some positive signs here, though. He was fairly dominant when he was healthy in 2009, posting a 2.82 ERA with 90 strikeouts in 82 innings pitched. Also, the shoulder surgery was considered relatively “minor,” only repairing a frayed labrum, which means – barring any unforeseen setbacks – he should be ready to go for spring training. The starting pitching free agent pool is rather thin this offseason and especially light on effective left-handed starters. The Yankees may lose Andy Pettitte and though they have Sabathia as their ace, they could use another lefty in the back-end of the rotation. The Yankees took a gamble on signing A.J. Burnett last offseason, who was stigmatized as a fragile pitcher, but it paid off. The Yankees could take a gamble again this offseason on Bedard for a fraction of the price. If I were the Yankees, I’d give Bedard a one-year, $8 million deal with a team-option for a big payday in 2011 ($12-15 million) if he can prove that he’s once again healthy.

2. Re-sign OF Johnny Damon, do not resign DH Hideki Matsui

There were times where the $52 million contract the Yankees gave to Johnny Damon was going to backfire on them, but Damon proved to be worth the money in the end. Damon looked worn down in 2007 and nearing the end of his career, but has since given the Yankees two very productive campaigns in 2008 and 2009. He’s aged well. What he’s lost in speed, he’s made up for in power, base-running savvy (12 SBs in 12 attempts this season), and improved plate discipline. Sure, he may have the worst throwing arm of any starting outfielder in baseball, but he’s flourished in the #2 spot in the lineup and infuses the team with excitement. I’d bring him back as the team’s left fielder in 2010 by giving him a 3-year, $30 million deal, which is a little risky for a 36-year old, but he hasn’t shown signs of slowing down recently and his offensive value over the last two years has been worth the money. Given that you’re bringing back one hitter pushing 40, I’d have to let the other one – Matsui – walk. Matsui is still a reliable power hitter, but he’s aging much quicker than Damon and is limited to strictly to being a DH. He still has some value, but the Yankees can absorb the loss without having to bring back another hitter pushing 40.

3. Trade SP Chien-Ming Wang & RP Damaso Marte to Indians for DH Travis Hafner & RP Kerry Wood

This is basically two teams swapping players who no longer fit their roster. The Yankees get more upside, but have to take on more salary. The Indians get rid of some dead weight on the payroll to further the rebuilding process, but lose their closer. Both teams would benefit, however. The Yankees plan on non-tendering Chien-Ming Wang, which means they’d outright lose him if they don’t find a trading partner in the coming months. Damaso Marte’s career in New York has been a complete bust and he’s been phased out. Hafner has hit a brick wall in his early thirties as many stiff power hitters of his prototype have in the past, but he showed signs of rediscovering his stroke in 2009. If he’s even 75% healthy, the damage this left-handed power-masher could do in Yankee Stadium next season is very tempting. His power has waned, but given his massive size and bulk, he’s still capable of tanking any pitch he can get a hold of and he’s still capable of drawing walks at an above-average rate. Meanwhile, Wood gives the Yankees another power arm in the bullpen and a potential set-up man depending on what the team decides to do with Joba and Hughes. They’d be taking on a good amount of payroll, but Wood has become a very effective reliever who would likely thrive in a mid-relief role and Hafner would give them a younger alternative to Matsui at DH.

4. Trade 1B Juan Miranda and RP Brian Bruney to Rockies for RF Brad Hawpe

With the emergences of Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, and Seth Smith, Hawpe has become expendable for the Rockies, who are always looking to get younger. Hawpe has been a model of consistency for the last four years for the Rockies, hitting 22 or more HRs driving in 84+ RBIs, drawing 74+ walks, and hitting at least .283 in each season. At age 30, he’s still in his peak years and just set a career-high with 42 doubles in 2009. Hawpe is a stranger to the disabled list and can be relied on as an everyday starter. Additionally, despite playing in Coors, his home and away splits are nearly identical. He’d be a great fit in the Yankees lineup and Yankees stadium and would give them a reasonably priced RF. Acquiring Xavier Nady paid dividends prior to his unfortunate injury making him a non-factor in 2009. Hawpe offers the same type of potential for production with more power and less risk. The Yankees would give up Juan Miranda, who has flashed good offensive upside in AAA (think Kendry Morales-lite) and would be a potential heir to 1B when Todd Helton’s time comes to an end. Miranda’s future prospects are drawing dead in New York, however, with Teixeira firmly entrenched at 1B. Bruney, a serviceable righty, is another player with modest upside, but would have a tough time fitting onto the roster as is. With the depth in the bullpen, he is certainly a tradeable commodity.

5. Sign CF Mike Cameron

I’ve been calling for the Yankees to acquire Mike Cameron for the last three offseasons now, and though he’ll be 36 next season, I still think he’d be a good fit for them. The Yankees nearly acquired him for Melky Cabrera last offseason but weren’t able to hammer out the details with the Brewers and the trade fell through. Now Cameron is a free agent and the Yankees can add him without having to give up any personnel. Despite being 35, Cameron posted the third-best range factor of all centerfielders in 2009 and provided his usual offensive output. He’s not a great hitter, by any means, but he has pop and still has some speed. He’s a poor-man’s Johnny Damon at the plate, but due to his high strikeout rate, will never hit much better than .250. Cameron’s addition, nonetheless, would give them a veteran power hitter at the bottom of the lineup, a tremendous defensive presence in center field, and allow Melky to flourish as a fourth outfielder. Given Cameron’s age, I’d give him a 1-year, $8.5 million deal (which is a modest raise from his 1-year, $7 million deal from last season).

6. Resign SP Andy Pettitte

I know I already gave the Yankees Erik Bedard, but there’s nothing wrong with having three effective left-handed starters in your rotation in the AL East. Pettitte looked like he was on the verge of retirement last offseason, but the Yankees lured him back on a 1-year $5.5 million deal and Pettitte was worth every penny of it (or at least for a team with unlimited payroll like the Yankees, he was). He gave them 32 starts, posting a solid 4.16 ERA, a near 2:1 K:BB rate and being a rock of consistency behind Sabathia and Burnett. The rest of the rotation would’ve been a complete liability without him. Additionally, he’s shown he can still take the ball on the big stage and can still thrive under pressure. His season could’ve been ever better if he didn’t make half his starts in the Yankees’ pinball machine of a stadium, as evidenced by his 3.71 road ERA. I’d bring Pettitte back on another 1-year deal in the neighborhood of $7 million, as he’s likely earned the raise for his 2009 performance. He’s always been good for 30+ starts and even at age 37, can still reliably take the ball every fifth day.

7. Sign SP Jon Garland

It appears as if the Yankees can rely on 30+ from Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte next season, but will have the roll the dice with Bedard. Signing Garland would give them a reliable, quality fifth starter. Garland, all things considered, is a pedestrian arm, but as a fifth starter, he offers pretty good value. Garland’s best asset, and quite possibly the only thing he offers at an above-average rate, is durability. He’s made 32 or more starts in every season since 2002. He keeps hitters fairly off-balance and though he’s very hittable, he knows how to use his defense, and can usually get out of jams. He’s not overpowering, but he’s improved his HRA rate and despite bouncing around in recent years, has still pulled in double-digit wins and maintained his consistency. Given all the starting pitching injuries the Yankees have suffered in recent years, Garland’s durability would go a long way. I’d give him a 2-year, $14 million to secure the fifth spot in the rotation and take some pressure off the young arms and the bullpen.

8. Keep RPs Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes in the bullpen

Chamberlain, despite the strong resistance by the Yankees’ brass to use him as a mediocre starter instead of a shutdown set-up man, is a no-brainer. The team gave him the opporuntity to be a full-time starter this season and it didn’t pan out. Not only was he monitored every pitch of the way, babied during every start, and eventually wore down to the point where, down the stretch, he was basically used as a reliever to start games for the first two or three innings. On top of all the maintenance and time invested in the project, the worst part was that he still wasn’t even an effective starter. As a matter of fact, his 4.75 ERA and unsightly 1.54 WHIP were well worse than the league-average numbers for AL starters. His HRA and walk rates soared and he lost his overpowering edge. At no point was he anywhere near dominant. The Yankees learned the hard way this season: Joba belongs in the bullpen. This year, he needs to return to the set-up role and be groomed to replace Mariano Rivera, whose contract is up at the end of next season.

Hughes has a bit more flexibility. What’s keeping him from a spot in the rotation is his need to develop a third pitch, which is something he has been working on and will continue to work on. Hughes has added a cutter to his arsenal, but as seen by his failings as a starter, he still needs to hone it. He’s got an excellent fastball and can change the pace with a solid curve, but if he doesn’t want to be the next Mike Pelfrey and be forced to rely on a fastball, he’ll have to continue to master the cutter. The best way to allow him to do that – besides extensive work in the offseason – is out of the bullpen again in 2010. Once he can establish a more robust repetoire, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be re-inserted into the rotation in 2011. He still has the stuff, makeup, and arm to project as a top-of-the-rotation starter. Unlike Joba, he has the arm durability to handle the workload of a starter. I’d give him one more season to refine his tools in the bullpen – given he’s still so young – and plan on moving him into the rotation in 2011. Also, just think how dominant that bullpen could be next season with Rivera, Chamberlain, Hughes, and Wood, not to mention, David Robertson, who was one of the best strikeout pitchers amongst all relievers this season.

9. Resign IF/OF Jerry Hairston, Jr. & C Jose Molina

Both of these veterans are essential pieces of the Yankees reserve cast. Hairston’s versatility and ability to step into just about any position at any time in the game makes him invaluable as a super-utility player. He’s also been surprisingly productive with the bat and offers great speed on the basepaths. He’d give the team a fifth outfielder, back-up middle infielder, pinch-hitter, and pinch-runner extraordinaire all in one roster spot and for a reasonable price. I’d resign him with a two-year, $4 million contract. I’d also bring back Molina, a fundamentally sound defensive catcher and the perfect complement to Jorge Posada. He’d also likely serve as Burnett’s personal catcher, increasing his value. Francisco Cervelli has some upside, but he can spend another year in AAA and work on his game-calling abilities while the Yankees give Molina another year as Posada’s back-up. I’d resign Molina for one year at $1.5 million.

10. Sign RP B.J. Ryan to a minor-league deal

The Yankees coveted Ryan four years ago as their primary set-up man when he hit free agency, but lost out to the Blue Jays who offered him a whopping contract and the ability to be a full-time closer. Ryan had his ups and downs during his tenure in Toronto. When he was good, he was his an above-average closer; when he was bad, he was usually hurt. Then, he downright imploded last season and became a roster casualty during the Blue Jays’ roster purge. That doesn’t mean he’s finished. If the Blue Jays were still competitive, you can bet they would’ve let him work his problems out in mid-relief. He went to the Cubs and was subsequently cut again, but the Cubs have a history of giving up on pitchers with mechanical issues (see: Rich Hill, Chad Gaudin, etc.). Given Ryan’s accomplishment, he warrants another opportunity and the Yankees can now bring him in practically for free. I’d give him a minor-league deal and let him battle it out with Phil Coke for the lefty-specialist spot in the bullpen.

11. Make OF Melky Cabrera the fourth outfielder; option OF Brett Gardner to AAA

Cabrera is a serviceable starter in centerfield and would probably be held in much higher regard as any everyday player on a small-market franchise. However, while he’s still capable as an everyday player, his skill set would make him a premier fourth outfielder. He can handle all three outfield spot, he’s got great range and a great arm in the field, he can switch-hit, he has some pop, and he’s got speed on the basepaths. He’s the type of guy who does everything well, but not much great. Given the make-up of this roster, he’s the perfect fit for a fourth outfielder. Gardner impressed when he was healthy last year, and has the potential to be a very good fourth outfielder in his own right, but there’s just no room for him right now. Anything he could offer would already be offered by either Cabrera or Hairston, so he’d be best kept in AAA, should an injury occur.

As a result, if I were the Yankees’ GM this offseason, this is the roster I would assemble for 2010:

The 2010 New York Yankees

Starting Lineup:

1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Jorge Posada, C
6. Brad Hawpe, RF
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Travis Hafner, DH
9. Mike Cameron, CF

Bench:

Jose Molina (C)
Jerry Hairston, Jr. (IF/OF)
Nick Swisher (1B/OF)
Melky Cabrera (OF)

Starting Rotation:

1. C.C. Sabathia
2. A.J. Burnett
3. Erik Bedard
4. Andy Pettitte
5. Jon Garland

Bullpen:

Mariano Rivera (Closer)
Joba Chamberlain (Set-up man)
Phil Hughes
Kerry Wood
B.J. Ryan
David Robertson
Alfredo Aceves

Analysis: The Yankees really only have two major areas of concern: the outfield and the back-end of the rotation. Adding Hawpe and Cameron and resigning Damon fixes the outfield, while adding Bedard and Garland and resigning Pettitte patches up the rotation. Essentially, the Yankees added the foundation to their team with big contracts last offseason and this offseason, they’re peppering in one-year deals to lock up a strong supporting veteran cast to address their deficiencies. If they can get similar production from Damon, Jeter, and Posada in the lineup and Burnett, Pettitte, and Rivera on the pitching staff, then they’ll be in good shape. Adding more talent that’s still at or near the midpoints of their careers, including Hawpe, Hafner, and Wood, makes things even better. They’ll have arguably the best lineup, starting pitcher, and bullpen in all of baseball, all assembled on the same team, which puts them in good position for a division title repeat in 2010.

AL Fantasy All-Star Team

Less than a week from now the Bronx will be home to the 2008 All-Star Game, the symbolic mid-point to the baseball season.  As far as fantasy baseball goes, we’re about 60% through the regular season and I felt this was a good time to list my FANTASY all-stars to this point of the season.  Some of the guys I have on this team are different from the real life squads (I have major beef with the rosters this year but hey that’s a whole other story) but as you should know by now, fantasy baseball and real baseball don’t always run parallel.  Here’s my 32 man roster:

1B- Kevin Youkillis                                                                                                                                        .311 AVG, .916 OPS, 50 runs, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 3 Steals

This was a tough call taking the Youk over Justin Morneau as their stats have been eerily similar thus far this season but Youkillis gets the nod as he has been slightly better in getting on base and shockingly has been a better power hitter.  If you still need a tiebreaker, consider the fact Youkillis is eligible at 3B as well.  Note: beware Youkillis is historically a horrific second half hitter.

2B- Ian Kinsler                                                                                                                                              .332 AVG, .936 OPS, 79 runs, 14 HR, 53 RBI, 23 steals

Kinsler has been nothing short of a beast this season.  The argument can be made that he has been the best fantasy 2B in baseball this season, though that’s a tough debate considering the likes of Chase Utley, Dan Uggla, and Dustin Pedroia.  Not only does he lead all of baseball in runs but Kinsler has hit for both power and average.  He gets on base a ton as his walk rate has been steadily increasing all season.  His 23 steals are ninth best in the game.  He gets bashed a bit for playing in such a loaded lineup but he is the leadoff hitter and igniter of that lineup.

Fantasy Prediction Recap: Spring Training, 2008

Here’s a recap of the four fantasy predictions I made this spring training and their actual outcomes:

Saturday, 2/23/08: The Indians trade Cliff Lee and promote either Aaron Laffey or Jeremy Sowers to the 5th spot in the rotation (leaning toward Laffey). The best guess on Lee’s possible destination: Cincinnati. The Reds currently lack a lefty starter and can easily fit him into a weak rotation.

What actually happened: The Indians, rather than trade Lee, promoted him back into the rotation as their #5 starter. Laffey, along with fellow youngsters Jeremy Sowers and Adam Miller, currently form the backbone of an imposing AAA rotation. Lee’s rotation stay could be short if any of the three get hot and teams start seeking lefty starters.

Wednesday, 2/27/08: After hitting .335 in 173 at-bats last season, Cody Ross carries his hot streak over to spring training and wins the starting centerfield job over superprospect Cameron Maybin and last year’s spring training victor, Alejandro de Aza.

What actually happened: Ross did win the centerfield job, but according to reports, he’ll likely have to share time with utility hitter Alfredo Amezaga. Maybin will open the year in AAA and de Aza was placed on the 15-day DL. It’s Ross’s job to lose at this point, even if he loses some at-bats to Amegaza and possibly Luis Gonzalez, once Jeremy Hermida comes off the DL.

Saturday, 3/15/08: Despite a crowded outfield, newly re-acquired Met, hot-hitting Angel Pagan, makes the team and replaces Moises Alou as the starter in left field until Alou returns from injury. As a result, Endy Chavez opens the season as the fourth outfielder, Damion Easley and Marlon Anderson as pinch-hitters, and superprospect Fernando Martinez in AAA.

What actually happened: Pagan kept his hot streak going through the spring, and as I expected, it was enough to win him the starting left field job while Alou rehabs on the DL. Chavez, Easley, and Anderson could all still see time in left, but the majority of their at-bats will be off the bench. Martinez was optioned back to AA Binghamton.

Wednesday, 3/19/08: Despite Joe Crede’s back issues and disappointing 2007 season, he wins the Opening Day starting third base job with a healthy, solid spring training. As a result, Josh Fields is optioned to AAA so he can play everyday rather than waste away on the major-league bench. Pablo Ozuna, who will also lose his position battle (at second base) will be kept on board as a utility player and Crede’s primary back-up at 3B. The trade rumors swirling around Crede will persist and pick up steam if he gets off to hot start this year.

What actually happened: Crede won the third base job, Fields will open the year as the starting 3B in AAA, and as expected, Ozuna will be relied on as the primary back-up to Crede after losing the 2B competition to Juan Uribe.

Prediction Success: 75%

I was pretty much on the money on the Pagan and Crede predictions. Technically, I was right on Cody Ross winning the CF job, despite a potential platoon lurking in the future once Hermida comes off the DL. But I flat out missed on the assumption that Cliff Lee would be dealt and replaced by Aaron Laffey in the rotation – though I rule out the possibility of this eventually happening at some point this season.

Boom or Bust: NL Edition

We continue with the second half of this year’s top half-dozen boom or bust fantasy options – the guys who are as likely to explode as they are implode. When perusing through the list, keep in mind one thing – the exclusivity of each player’s circumstances. Each one of these players has a high ceiling and a low basement, but each one also has a very unique story. We already saw the top-ranked minor-league position player of the early part of this decade go from potential roster casualty to a 2nd round fantasy pick. We also saw a pitcher who was the surefire rookie of the year in 2006 before an arm injury cost him the award and all of last season and we also saw a former #1 overall pick return to baseball after missing three full seasons due to drug abuse and off-the-field problems.

The stories are equally as interesting in the National League as we’ll take a look at a 26-year old pitcher who broke out in 2004 and was considered one of the best young lefties in the game before imploding in back-to-back seasons and returning to dominance in 2007. We’ll also look at a former top pitching prospect who suffered an eternal meltdown, lost his control, nearly retired from baseball, and returned as a power-hitting outfielder, and finally, a 33-year old rookie.

National League East: Oliver Perez, SP, New York Mets

Boom: On talent alone, Perez could be an ace. He’s crafty, has a great mix of pitches, has very good lefty/righty splits, can be virtually unhittable when he’s on his game, and has the ability to strikeout 200+ hitters on a yearly basis. Since leaving the moribund Pirates, he has worked closely with Mets’ pitching coach Rick Peterson and rediscovered the mechanics and success that made him one of the game’s most promising young pitchers in 2004, when he went 12-10 with a 2.98 ERA and striking out 239 batters. Last season, after a three-year hiatus, he returned to fantasy stud status, going 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA and striking out 174 in 177.0 IP. He should continue to thrive in a pitcher’s park, under Peterson’s tutelage, with the same great offense behind him, and minimal pressure as the #3 starter. Perez struggled a bit down the stretch last year (as the entire team collapsed), but despite whispers of him being a headcase, he was generally solid all year long, against righties and lefties, and at home and on the road. Assuming he continues his maturation in this friendly environment, he could be a very cheap and effective #3 fantasy starter while average more than 1 K/IP. He’s still only 26 and even when he struggles he’s a productive lefty, always averaging around one strikeout per inning.

Bust: 2007 was Perez’s best season since 2002. Perez followed up his 2002 campaign by going 7-5 with a 5.85 ERA in 2003, despite being under the same circumstances. He’s shown goog consistency within a given year, but usually he’s consistently getting rocked. In three of the last five seasons, his ERA has been above 5.50 and he’s allowed at least 20 HRs in every full season as a starter. He’s been unable to keep his mechanics under control for extended periods of time and his delivery raises some concerns. He has the propensity to implode at any time and he still struggles with his control. His ERA rose nearly a full run in the second half of the season and his BAA jumped from .207 to .254 after his luck on balls put in play gradually declined. He has electric stuff and ace potential, but he’s still a very risky proposition and can’t be trusted as a top-of-the-line fantasy starter. Considering he’s never put together back-to-back above-average fantasy seasons, he may have more upside than Ervin Santana, but he’s equally as combustible.

Verdict: Despite the criticism the Pirates organization has faced over the last decade, they’ve always seemed to manage their young pitchers well, so it’s hard to blame them for Perez’s implosion. The fact is, Perez is ubertalented, but his talent and potential stardom in the past clearly outweighed his lack of experience. He’s made very good strides as a Met and is learning to harness his talented arm and velocity. He could just as easily improve upon last year’s peripherals and become a top-of-the-line fantasy starter as easily as he could implode again, and for that reason, despite the fact that I think he’s more likely to do the former, I wouldn’t risk drafting him any higher than as a #4 fantasy starter.

Boom or Bust: AL Edition

This year I have often talked about “risky” players, guys like Barry Bonds, Evan Longoria, and Kerry Wood, but while they are risky, the risk involved isn’t one likely to seriously jeopardize your team. The players this article will focus on, one from each division, are the risky players who have the market value to actually damage your team if they aren’t worth the risk. These players can as easily be labeled “sleepers” as they could “disappointments.” They’re the ultimate boom-or-bust picks – the type of players who will tend to get drafted higher on potential than actual production, or the type of guys to fall a bit further than a player with similar production the year before would, because of a lack of track record or more red flags. They have the high-ceiling talent that can make you look like a genius for drafting or acquiring them and they have the low basement that can ruin your team if the risks outweigh the rewards.

So, if you feel you’ve put together a solid team this year, but feel you’re still lacking that one piece to put you over the edge, you might want to take a gamble on one of these six high-risk, high-reward players, who could end up paying huge dividends. First, the American League “boom-or-bust” picks for 2008:

American League East: B.J. Upton, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Boom: Upton was the #2 overall pick in the 2002 draft and was considered the top-hitting prospect for much of the early part of his career. He plowed through lower levels of the minors exuding 20-20 potential, despite still being underaged and very raw. He hit a snag in AAA and struggled early on the majors, but it was because he was still so raw. Last season, as he began to refine his skills, he made an instant impact, hitting .300 with 24 HRs, 82 RBIs, and stealing 22 bases. He’ll move to centerfield, where he’ll no longer have to wory about his defense jeopardizing playing time or focus on offense, and he’ll be in the heart of a very productive lineup. He has 30 HR potential, but his speed may be his best asset (as seen by perennial 40+ SB totals in the minors). He’s still only 23 years old and his five-tool talents could have him on the precipice of a monster season, with his potential.

Bust: Upton has plenty of potential, as despite refining his skills last year, he’s still very raw. He’ll be forced to learn a new position in centerfield this year and it could take away from his focus at the plate. He has an awful batting eye and was lucky to hit .300 last year, despite 154 strikeouts to only 65 walks. His batting dropped 35 points from the first half (.320) to the second half (.285) last year, and he hit  .270 and .244 in August and September, respectively.  He’s the type of hitter who can give you power and speed, but his average will eventually regress. He’s shown the ability to struggle long-term against quality pitching and if he doesn’t improve his batting eye, he might just wind up being a flashier version of Mike Cameron this year.

Verdict: Upton is the real deal. Is he a .300 hitter? Probably not, but he should be able to maintain an average in the .270-.280 range. He’s very risky, especially considering he’s gone in the second round of some drafts, but if you can land him at 2B, you should be pretty set. He might not reach 30 HRs this year, but another 20-20 season should be in store for fantasy owners.

2008 Regular Season, Playoff, & Fantasy Baseball Predictions Post

In celebration of the 2008 season kicking off this week, we decided to deviate a bit from standard fantasy baseball information and make our picks and predictions for the upcoming season. We’ll pick the divisional standings, playoff results, regular season award winners, sleepers, busts, top prospects, and a starting fantasy lineup for each division for bragging rights at the end of the season.

Please note that in an effort to avoid repetition, we opted not to consider our Rookie of the Year picks for each league in our divisional top prospect picks. Also, the utility/DH position in each divisional fantasy starting lineup is essentially the best hitter who’s not the best at his position – it is not reserved exclusively for DHs or players without any positional eligibility.

Without further adieu, our 2008 regular season, playoff, and fantasy baseball picks and predictions:

AL East New Player Projections

The 2008 fantasy baseball season is upon us early this year (disgustingly early actually) and like every year, you’ll have to get use to all of the familiar faces in new places. You’ll also have to get use to the fact that when a player changes addresses his numbers are very often affected, whether it be for the good, the bad, or the insignificant. A change in leagues, stadium, lineup production, run support, and even altitude can and will impact the players and thus your fantasy team(s). The last 5 months have been full of transactions and in these next few posts I will help you sort out what the fantasy impacts of those moves will be. Note that all projections are over a full season’s workload.

AL EAST

Yankees: Well GM Brian Cashman certainly was not kidding when he said the Yankees were committed to building from within and developing young players instead of making huge trades or throwing huge cash at FAs. This was perhaps the quietest off-season in the history of the organization (sans the whole A-Rod opt out debacle and the “will he or won’t he play” Pettite saga) as the Yankees shockingly added only 2 new players to their Major League roster. Sadly Billy Crystal did not make the roster :

(1) RP LaTroy HawkinsHawkins is one of those guys that I kinda have always liked in real life baseball but never been crazy about in fantasy. My big problem with him is that he has been frustratingly inconsistent throughout his career. While he had a solid career in Minnesota, he struggled a bit the last time he was in the AL, which was only 2 seasons ago with Baltimore. He had an ERA of 4 and a half that year and I expect his ERA will be about the same this time around. He only threw 55 innings last season and I doubt he’ll go much higher than that total this season, especially since Joe Torre isn’t there to abuse his arm. Hawkins has never been a huge strikeout pitcher and that won’t change and he will have to compete with Farnsworth and Chamberlain for holds. If Rivera gets hurt, he is a third option at best to close and won’t get many opportunities to “vulture” saves or wins.

Projections: 3 wins, 21 holds, 4.63 ERA

Verdict: Hawkins is worth owning in AL only leagues as he will be a solid holds guy for your team and is worth owning over Farnsworth. In deep mixed leagues, not a terrible option as your 4th or 5th reliever but really only worth owning if your team is affected by injury or if the Yankees experience bullpen injuries

2) 3B/1B Morgan EnsbergIt was touch and go as to whether or not Ensberg would make the big league squad but the Yankees just purchased the former all-star’s contract. Good for Morgan but pretty useless fact for you and your fantasy team. Ensberg has zero chance of starting at any point. Even with an injury to Rodriguez or an issue at 1B, Wilson Betemit will play before Ensberg at third and Shelley Duncan may play before him at first bag. He will be lucky to get anywhere near 200 ABs and his numbers the past two seasons have been alarmingly terrible. In that span he has hit .231 and averaged only 49 RBIs. Yes, his shoulder injury impacted him but it’s time to view his 2005 season as an abnormality and not a realistic expectation of him. He has never come within 35 RBIs or 11 home runs of that 36/101 season and he certainly will not have the opportunity to try in ‘08. To top it off, he won’t even provide a cheap steal for your team every now and again.

Projection: .246/4/24

Verdict: Avoid at all costs, he won’t play and is of no value. Even if he is traded, it is unlikely he would start or be of any huge impact.

National Disaster

Update: The Nationals made several moves recently as they begin to finalize their starting rotation, but will have to do it without their top two starters going into the spring. Last year’s ace, Shawn Hill, will open the year on the 15-day DL as he continues from a right forearm injury from last season and 2005 & 2006 ace John Patterson was released as a result of a “lack of performance” with a 7.00 ERA this spring. Finally, the team purchased the contract of non-roster invitee Odalis Perez, who after back-to-back disappointing seasons with the Royals could be in the mix for the Opening Day start. With the most recent moves, the Nats’ projected Opening Day rotation is bordering on disastrous with Perez, Tim Redding, Jason Bergmann, Matt Chico, and John Lannan.

The View: There are quite a few developments here that could have fantasy relevance. First, John Patterson’s release apparently did not have anything to do with his recent arm injuries. He was getting shelled this spring and his fastball was peaking in the mid-80’s. It’s a bit conspicuous, considering Patterson has the control and stuff to get by without a blazing fastball and the state of the rotation is pretty shaky at this point without him. Manager Manny Acta said the organization didn’t think he was worth the risk again and GM Jim Bowden said he’s welcome to come back as a minor leaguer. Considering there seems to be something at play behind the scenes here and the decision wasn’t entirely performance-based, it’s very possible Patterson could get scooped up rather quickly and inserted into another team’s rotation. Possible suitors could include: Los Angeles Angels (who will be without Lackey and Escobar for at least a month), Florida (where he could feasibly be their ace tomorrow), Texas (who has some serious back-of-the-rotation questions), and Toronto (who lost Casey Janssen for the season after planning on making him their #4 starter and have all but given up on Gustavo Chacin). He’ll probably never be as good as his 2005 season and he’s not a great strikeout pitcher, but on a competitive team, he could be a solid back-end fantasy starter, despite injury risks.

Shawn Hill’s injury doesn’t appear to be serious and it seems to be more of a precautionary measure. Nevertheless, he was hurt on and off last season and already has a bit of a history with injury concerns despite his young age. He’s expected be to be activated on April 13 (only missing two starts), but that’s not written in ink. The staff definitely needs him back, but with this expected to be another lost season, don’t expect him to be rushed, consider this injury has already lingered for months. When healthy, he’s a good back-end fantasy starter, but right now, he’s best left on the waiver wire unless you have the room to stash him on the DL.

Odalis Perez was expected to get his major-league contract purchased from the day he signed with the Nationals, considering the rotation prospects, but it’s still too soon to consider him a viable fantasy starter. He had a good showing this spring and he’ll be at the top of this rotation, but he’s always had the look and tools of a front line starter, he just hasn’t had the focus to turn his potential into results. We saw Dmitri Young clean up his act under similar circumstances and Perez could see the rebirth of his career under the well-respected Manny Acta, but like the rest of the rotation, his immediate value is still minimal. He’s coming off a 8-11 season with the Royals, where he posted a 5.57 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and an eyesore of a BAA at .318. He also posted his worst strikeout rate of his career with 64 in 137.1 innings. He never really looked better than mediocre at any point last season and his best month was May, where he went 0-2 with a 4.40 ERA and 14 K in 30 IP. Set the bar low right now, regardless of where he sits in the rotation.

As far as the rest of the rotation is concerned, Tim Redding is coming off the best half-season of his career, is unlikely to duplicate last year’s success, and will have a tenuous grip on his job as the veteran target with pitching prospects closer than they appear in his rear view mirror. Jason Bergmann had a strong showing last year and unlike the rest of the team, can be an above-average strikeout pitcher, but he has low endurance, and is best suited for the bullpen. Matt Chico is a lefty with a cannon for an arm and repeatedly hit high 90’s with his fastball. The problem is his control is awful and despite his velocity, isn’t a strikeout pitcher. He’s still very raw, but as he continues to hone his skills, he could be a useful fantasy piece a year or two down the road. Finally, John Lannan is another young lefty who the team has become pretty high on. He plowed through A+ ball (6-0, 2.13 ERA), AA ball (3-2, 3.25 ERA), and AAA ball (3-1, 1.66 ERA) before climbing the prospect ladder to the majors. He showed pretty good poise for a pitcher, who one year earlier was toiling in A ball, and went 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in 6 starts. He’s had control issues every step of the way despite his success and won’t be a pitcher who racks up strikeouts. Despite this, he’s got a god arm and has impressed scouts this spring. The problem is, even if he posts similar numbers to last year’s major outing, he’ll likely be the odd man out when Shawn Hill is ready to return.

With the rotation in a state of chaos, all the veteran free agent pitchers probably have their agents zeroing in on Washington, in hopes of not having to settle for a minor-league deal elsewhere. The first and most prominent is Jeff Weaver, whose brother, Jered, confirmed he is in talks with the Nationals to sign a contract. The Nationals haven’t officially confirmed their interest, but it does make sense. Weaver, like Perez, needs a career revival in a low-key environment or he’s in risk of losing his “major league starter” status. Other names that could be pursued include: Freddy Garcia (if and when he’s ready to make his return), Rodrigo Lopez (health also pending), and Eric Milton (who could fill a lefty void if Chico and Lannan aren’t ready for a full season in the rotation). Right now, other than Garcia, no one is really worth tracking in terms of fantasy value.

Sleepers & Busts: NL East Edition

Atlanta Braves
Surprise: Matt Diaz
Diaz spent the first five years of his career as an underappreciated farmhand for the Rays, then spent a year in Kansas City where they tried converting him to catcher, before joining the Braves and spending the last two years as one of the best platoon hitters in baseball. He’s hit for average at every stop in the majors (.320 lifetime average) and minors (.315 lifetime average), but this will be his first opportunity as a full-time starter. Unlike most platooners, he can hit both lefties (.356 in 2007) and righties (.318 in 2007), and really doesn’t have any holes in his swing. His power is mediocre, but in a full season, could make a run at 20 HRs and has underrated speed. He may only do everything else average, but he can slap singles better than just about anyone else in the NL and though he seems to be stuck with the platoon tag, he could surprise a lot of people by hitting .300+ with some pop in his first full-season workload.

Sleeper: Yunel Escobar
There’s not much left for me to say about Escobar that I haven’t already said in about five other articles, but when you consider the environment he’ll be playing, his hitting talents, his low ADP, and the fact that he carries three infield position flexibility, he might be the most undervalued player going into the season. He hit .326-5-28-5, walked 27 times to only 44 strikeouts, and scored 54 runs in just over a half-season’s work. The Havana, Cuba native joined the Braves at age 22 and only played 223 minor league games before his call-up. His power is still developing and with his 6’2’’ 200 lb. frame, he could be a 15-20 HR hitter in due time. He’s already got a great betting eye, good speed, and game-changing abilities, and he’ll get every opportunity to flaunt them on a full-season basis this year as the starting shortstop atop of a productive lineup.

Deep Sleeper: Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens, who came over from Detroit with only 30.2 IP in his career above AA, is now the favorite for the 5^th rotation spot with a strong spring and Mike Hampton likely to open the season on the DL. Jurrjens allowed only one run in his first nine innings of work this spring and is building off a solid 2007 season in which he went 7-5 with a 3.20 ERA in 19 AA starts and held his own in his major-league debut as a 21-year old last season, going 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA in 7 starts. He’s got above-average command of his pitches and though he only struck out 13 in 30.2 major league innings last year, he was a near 1 K/IP strikeout pitcher in the minors. He doesn’t have tremendous upside, but he’s pretty developed for a 22-year old with limited high-minors experience and could have a quietly solid season with a chance to win a good number of games with average peripherals and an impressive home run allowed rate.

Bust: Tom Glavine
Glavine’s season-ending numbers look pretty good on paper: 13 wins, 4.45 ERA, 1.41 WHIP. Then, when you consider he only struck out 89 in 200.1 IP of work and had a BAA of .281 (the third-worst in his 21-year career) as a result of declining velocity, it’s hard to imagine him duplicating last year’s numbers without a good amount of luck. He returns to the Braves, who probably won’t get him the 5.21 runs per start the Mets got him last year or the .277 BABIP (as a result of very good defense), so he’ll probably have to pitch better than he did a year ago, which is asking a lot from a 42-year old. It’s also asking a lot from a pitcher who looked like he started to wear down in June before completely collapsing at the end of the season. Glavine’s ERA only jumped slightly in the second half of the season, but his BAA was 28 points higher and only struck out 36 in 84.0 IP and had a 6.10 ERA in September.

Average Draft Position Report, March 2008

One way to prep for a draft is to target the players you want in advance and the round you expect to take them in, and the best way to do it is to know when each player is most likely to come off the board. An Average Draft Position Report gives you the data needed to do this successfully, including each player’s average draft slot, and the earliest and latest they’ve gone in any draft. Of course, each website’s ADP rankings will be exclusive to their website, as the default rankings on any website will greatly influence the ADP report, as well will the type of league. The following ADP report is based on the data from Mockdraftcentral.com using all draft results from standard 5×5 leagues over the past week. I’ll break it down by position and pick out the ones I found most surprising. It is worth noting that a standard league will usually consist of 12 teams with 23 man rosters, so the total number of picks would be 276 in a given draft.

Catcher

Highest Rated: Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
Average Draft Position: 29.27 (mid 3rd round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 22/38
Comments: Martinez has been doing battle with Russell Martin this preseason for the #1 fantasy catcher spot, but according to the ADP Report, he’s got a slight lead on him (Martin’s ADP is currently 31.08). This really shouldn’t come as a surprise considering Martinez is the better power hitter, drives in more runs, and has been putting up elite production from the catcher position a little bit longer than Martin has.

Surprisingly High: Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners
Average Draft Position: 124.08 (10th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 96/147
Comments: Most people would agree that there are five elite catchers this season (Martinez, Martin, Mauer, McCann, and Posada) and that if you don’t land one of them, you can wait until the latter stages of the draft to fill the position. Johjima is ranked as the 6th best catcher on the ADP and I have no qualms with that, but he is going, on average, 28 picks (approximately 2 1/2 rounds) before the #7 ranked catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Johjima is a good hitter and has shown good consistency in both his pro seasons, but there really shouldn’t be that much urgency expressed in landing Johjima after the top five are gone; he’s good, but he’s not that much better than the other top catchers still on the board.

Surprisingly Low: Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles
Average Draft Position: 254.96 (22nd round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 174/Undrafted
Comments: Hernandez is currently the fourteenth ranked catcher and that’s not too hard to believe since he hit .258-9-62 last year, but it’s a bit surprising a player with his offensive upside, despite coming off a down year, would be drafted behind an aging Jason Varitek, low upside A.J. Pierzynski, and a relative unknown in J.R. Towles. It was only two years ago that Hernandez hit .275-23-91 and was considered an up-and-coming talent at the position. He struggled with injuries last year, but he’s bulked up and is back at full strength for 2008 and has more upside than most of the catchers immediately listed ahead of him, despite sharing relatively equal injury risks.

Olson Bounced from Full House

Update: 2005 Supplemental draft pick Garrett Olson has been officially eliminated from the battle for the role of 5th starter, as Orioles manager Dave Trembley announced he was being optioned to AAA.

The View: Olson is powerful lefty with a lot of upside, but he might project better in the bullpen in the long run. He still has control issues to work out and there’s no need to rush him at this point. The Orioles’ have plenty of young pitchers competing for a 5th spot this spring and even with Olson out of the picture, it’s still murky. The odds-on favorite right now is newly-acquired Matt Albers, who came over in the Miguel Tejada trade from the Astros. Other possible candidates are in-house options Brian Burres and Jim Johnson, neither of which impressed in the majors last year.

Update: Equally disappointing news for baseball’s other Olson/Olsen twin was on display as AP sportswriter Steven Wine published this piece from the Marlins’ spring training site, which as many of us expected, states that Scott Olsen is still struggling to maintain control of his pitches (and his life). Olsen is one of four starters battling for the Opening Day nod and the role of ace, but if he’s still as erratic as he was last year as the article claims, he’s not likely to win.

The View: In 2006, Olsen emerged as a top-of-the-line quality young lefty, going 12-10 with a 4.04 ERA as a rookie. Then last season, he imploded under new managerment. It’s possible, he was overworked under Joe Girardi in 2006 or it’s possible he’s struggling with the mental aspects of the game, as he’s shown to lose his temper and control at times and has had some off-the-field issues. Whatever the reasons, when the load was placed upon his shoulder last year, he collapsed, going 10-15 with a 5.81 ERA and .315 BAA. He lost his control to a degree and saw his walk rate jump a bit, but the bigger problem was he was all too hittable. His strikeout total dropped by 33 and he gave up 66 more hits in four less innings from 2006 to 2007. Arm fatigue seems likely, but he never got it together in 2007 and it doesn’t sound like the kinks have been worked out yet in 2008. Right now, he should be avoided in all formats but the deepest NL-only leagues. It’s likely he’ll improve to some degree, but with minimal run support on a team likely to finish in dead-last and his draft value at an all-time low, you’ll be able to pluck him off the waiver wire rather than use a draft pick on him.

Middle Reliever Big Board, March 2008

As I planned on doing last season, I’ll periodically rank the top 25 middle relievers in an attempt to help out those looking for a cheap contributor for some holds, strikeouts, or to lower ERA. Most standard leagues do not count holds as a stat which all but eliminates any value for any non-upper-echelon middle relievers, which seems somewhat hypocritical considering any closer, regardless of quality, will have value. Holds isn’t a perfect science, but either is saves, and holds is a good way to gauge value in pressure situations. For my Top 25 board, holds will factor into the rankings, as will ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, the potential for saves or to take over at closer at some point, and to a lesser degree, wins, appearances, HRs allowed, and innings pitched.

Notes: For 2008, the first number represents (on a scale from 1-10) the likelihood that the closer and/or other relievers blocking the player from taking over as closer get injured, are ineffective, or traded. It also includes the likelihood of that player getting traded to become another team’s closer or assuming the role of closer due to exceptional performance – basically it is a scaled number to indicate the possibility of receiving save opportunities on a regular basis. The second number (also on a 1-10 scale) indicates how effective I believe the player would be if they inherited the role of closer. Also, some of the closer battles have not yet been officially decided, but I have included those who I do not think will open the season as their team’s closer (i.e. Kerry Wood & Bob Howry).

The Top 25 Middle Relievers

1. Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers
2007: 82.0 IP, 4 W, 2 SV, 99 K, 32 HLD, 2.85 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
2008: 5.5; 9.0

2. Hideki Okajima, Boston Red Sox
2007: 69.0 IP, 3 W, 5 SV, 63 K, 27 HLD, 2.22 ERA, 0.97 WHIP
2008: 2.0; 8.0

3. Scot Shields, Los Angeles Angels
2007: 77.0 IP, 4 W, 2 SV, 77 K, 31 HLD, 3.86 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
2008: 3.0; 8.0