Each fantasy season, there are a number of storylines that seem to engulf mainstream fantasy baseball sites and articles. While each season the storylines may change, the concept of these headliners themselves remain consistent year in and year out. While these attention-grabbing themes often epically effect drafting schemes and fantasy football leagues, they only lay the groundwork for avid fantasy football fans.
The bottomline: While these storylines are both important and intriguing, the real fantasy baseball fan will pay close attention to these themes as well as lesser themes like who’ll win the yet-to-be-determined Mark Redman sweepstakes*. These storylines are not only a nice way to lay a foundation for the 2007 fantasy season, keeping yourself familiar with the primary themes can prove useful for those of us about to enter our first live drafts of the season.
*As long as it isn’t the Blue Jays, I’ll be more than pleased with the outcome
Without further adieu:
1) The Undsiputed Number One(s)
While fantasy football experts were generous to offer you three options with the #1 overall pick this season, there’s only one name that better come off the draft board first in 2007, and that name is Albert Pujols, unless you dare face the ridicule and humiliation of your fellow league members. Pujols may have lost the MVP award to Ryan Howard this offseason, but as a pretty sweet consolation, he has earned the right to be crowned the first undisputed #1 overall draft pick in fantasy baseball since Barry Bonds in 2002. Pujols has a few things his MVP-winning rival can’t offer, including an impeccable track record, the ability to tack on a respectable number of stolen bases, minimal strikeouts, and most importantly an all-but-guaranteed .320 or better batting average.
Pujols may not be the all-around, five-category producer that Alfonso Soriano has the potential to be in a legitimate lineup, but he contributes significantly to every major offensive category, excluding steals (for which he is a mediocre producer). In terms of production vs. risk factor, he is far and away, head-and-shoulders above the rest. He may also be the most productive hitter in baseball, and to have the greatest production rate and the lowest risk factor may just earn him the highest percentage of #1 overall selections in legitimate leagues of all-time. He is that good and the lineup he hits in isn’t too bad either.Similarly, and maybe even to a greater degree, Johan Santana has the #1 spot atop the pitching rankings on lockdown. After his second Cy Young Award in three years, his third-straight sub-3.00, 235+ strikeout season, and oh, by the way, winning the pitching triple crown in 2006, Santana has no one even in the rear-view mirror in terms of being the best starting pitcher in fantasy baseball. He’s still only 27 and since he was relatively under-used prior to his break-out, he still has plenty of innings left on that arm. Not only does he have phenomenal stuff and can eat innings, but he gets better as the year goes on! He’s the #1 pitcher in the fantasy baseball regular season as well as the fantasy baseball postseason; which makes him all but flawless.
While Pujols can’t offer stolen bases, there is no relevant starting pitching category for which Santana isn’t a solid contributor. Now, with Brad Radke retired and Francisco Liriano out for the season, the Twins will rely on Santana more than ever before and as long as his arm can stand the extra work, we may even see him pitching on four days rest if the Twins are in the playoff hunt, which could further separate him from the pack.Santana is the most dominant pitcher of this era, but is his dominance the result of his greatness or the lack of starting pitching in baseball today? Luckily for fantasy owners, it doesn’t particularly matter, since outside of a poor stretch at the start of the ‘06 season, Santana’s numbers have been both brilliant and unparalleled. He’s even got a top-level bullpen to preserve his close-cut victories.
Like Pujols, there’s nothing not to like. He’s not as safe of a pick as Pujols, but his dominance is just as great, if not greater. Which may make him the answer to the following question….
2) So, Who’s #2?
With the aforementioned Pujols as the certified #1 overall pick, there is a muddled mess in the two-hole. This season offers a handful of players who are not only worthy of the #2 spot, but are of near equal value, which means that if you’re in a snake-style draft, the #2 spot is not where you want to be this year. Not only are the next level of players interchangable and that the value you are getting at #2 could be lesser or equal to the value at #6, you are forced to wait a good chunk of time (and miss out on some good players) before you pick again. Luckily, this second tier offers some tremendous talent. Here’s a look at the top candidates for the #2 overall ranking in fantasy baseball this season:
a) Johan Santana – Only the third pitcher in the last 50 years to win the Pitching Triple Crown for the entire MLB. Any questions?
b) Ryan Howard – He stole the MVP award away from Pujols for good reason. He put up monster numbers, he’s young, strong, and has a solid lineup around him. He’s has legit 60 HR potential and he didn’t crack under pressure down the stretch last season. Pitchers still haven’t figured out how to pitch to him and he offers a solid .300+ batting average and an off-the-wall slugging percentage. He may need to work on his batting eye, but will earn a solid number of free passes and his power output is second to none.
c) Alfonso Soriano - His 40/40 campaign last year is a great indication of his all-around talent and his ability to seamlessly make the transition to the outfield speaks volumes about his baseball knowledge. Still amidst the peak of his career, he now gets to peak in the heart of what could be one of the best lineups in baseball. There is a great deal of risk involved, since his batting average is well below .300, we’ve seen him struggle in the recent past, and whether or not his motivation is still as fervent after the big payday. If he plays at the same level of a year ago and the Cubs’ lineup lives up to its billing, Soriano could make a run at the #1 overall ranking, but the risks can’t be ignored.
d) Jose Reyes – Fantasy owners are enamored with power, and while power isn’t atop the skill department on Reyes’ fantasy resume, he offers enough power to put him in the #2 discussion. Similar to Ichiro, he has untapped power, but because of his tools and his role, it’s best kept untapped for the sake of the team. Nevertheless, 19 home runs is nothing to sneeze at, especially with a .300 batting average, 64 stolen bases, 122 runs, 17 triples, and an improving batting eye, which produced 10 walks in the month of September. He’s still raw and he lacks the power output of the other hitters on his value level, but his potential and his ability to produce runs is uncanny. He is an electrifying player with all-around productivity, which makes him worth entering the discussion.
e) Everyone else – Vladimir Guerrero bounced back to have a tremendous MVP-like year and if he stays healthy, he certainly belonged in this discussion. David Ortiz put up a quiet 54 HRs despite injury and should not be overlooked. Despite all of the criticism A-Rod takes, his fantasy value is still at a premium, and without a legit #2, there are countless young hitters like Miguel Cabrera, Justin Morneau, and David Wright who could fight their way into the conversation.
Needless to say, while the #1 overall pick should be nothing short of predictable, it’s anybody’s guess who will follow and if you find yourself in the #2 or #3 draft position and have the ability to trade down, do it. The drop-off, as you can see, is almost non-existant.
3) Matsuzaka-mania and the Continuance of the Asian Persuasion
Similarly to Bushmania in fantasy football this season, Matsuzaka-mania brings a new wave of owners who will absorbed by an unknown commodity with mouth-watering tools and untapped potential. Also, similar to Reggie Bush, Dice-K will find himself passing up much safer, proven commodities at his position thanks in part to the media-frenzy that will surround him. Nevertheless, with a relatively weak strating pitching class and joining a team with an offense that will produce runs, Matsuzaka deserves to be in the top ten SP discussion. He’s young, he’s mysterious, his novelty offers a very good chance that hitters will be baffled initially, and while dominating in Japan without the $1.99 won’t get you a cup of coffee, he has a good make-up and even better repetoire of pitches.
Will Matsuzaka inevitably get overhyped? Yep. Will he emerge as a top-ten SP this season regardless? The odds appear to be in his favor. Josh Beckett made the transition to the AL last season as a Red Sox and got bombed, but still put together a solid fantasy campaign. If Matsuzaka is half as good as he is hyped to be and is better than Beckett circa ‘06, then we could be looking at a line of at least 15 wins and 180+ K’s. I would hardly expect anything above a 4.00 in the ERA department, so while the production may not match the hype, it could come pretty damn close.
Matsuzaka will steal the spotlight, but there are a number of other Japanese players who will be making their debut this season, and as we’ve seen with the lesser-known, unheralded successes of Akinori Otsuka and Takashi Saito, you don’t have to steal headlines to be a solid fantasy contributor.
a) Kei Igawa – with all the publicity surrounding A-Rod and Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Pettitte’s return, and the crowded outfield, no one is paying much attention to Igawa, who fits in very nicely as the #4 starter. His numbers as a Hanshin Tiger weren’t much to write home about, but he carried a very respectable K/BB ratio and finished off last season with a 2.97 ERA. He’s a finesse pitcher with good control, who may not offer gaudy strikeout totals, but has #4 fantasy starter potential written all over him.
b) Akinori Iwamura – vastly undersized and missing out on the limelight as a Devil Ray, Iwamura seems to be in the mold of Kazuo Matsui, but offers a greater potential for power. Obviously, his power numbers should sap in America, but he has a good eye and good all-around tools. Most importantly, with the Devil Rays’ infield a mess, he’s all but locked up the starting job at 3B and could find himself favorable positioned in the lineup behind their young studs in the outfield. He’ll go undrafted, but he’s worth keeping atop your waiver watch list.
c) Hideki Okajima – the most recent success of Japanese imports has come from unheralded, middle-aged, middle-relievers and Okajima fits that description to a tee. He’s a 32-year old lefty with average size and tools and good control, but with the Red Sox closer situation entirely up-for-grabs, he could pull a Takashi Saito and shock us all. Of course, the Red Sox are a little more scrutinized than the Dodgers are and Okajima may not be of equal talent to Saito, he averaged more than a strikeout-per-inning last season in Japan and has some closer experience, so he’s worth keeping an eye on.
4) The Fantastically Over-Scrutinized Four
There are four players that come to mind when I think of players who are garnering more fantasy attention than they could ever match on the field this offseason – those being Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Roger Clemens, and Sammy Sosa. Fortunately for fantasy owners who have enough sense to segregate off-field controversy and on-the-field potential, Bonds and A-Rod could wind up being bargains in the more role-model-conscious fantasy drafts. Clemens, on the other end of the spectrum, has seen his value inflate thanks in part to the overscrutization, as I’ve seen him go as high as the 2nd round. Not bad for a guy who may not even take the mound in 2007. On an entirely different end of the spectrum, Sosa’s overscrutinization has seemingly no bearing on his already non-existant value, so basically he’s just taking away headlines from more deserving players, but that’s life.
a) Barry Bonds – As of right now, the general consensus is that he’s a #5 OF, worthy of late round flier. Not bad, considering he put together a 26-HR campaign in only 367 at-bats. He finally hit his stride in August, hitting over .300 with 12 home runs in the final two months of the season. Has the steroid controversy tarnished his reputation and career success? Absolutely, but that’s an entirely separate debate. Whether or not his injury last season was legit or whether his numbers suffered from a sans-steroid consumption is up for debate, but they appear to be in the past, at least from a fantasy perspective.
b) Alex Rodriguez – David Wright has made a hell of a push to be the #1 rated 3B in fantasy baseball, but most experts will still lean toward A-Rod. Here’s why: in 2006, he finished in the top 3 in R, HR, RBI, and OBP amongst qualifying 3B and still put up a respectable batting average (.290) and stolen base total (15). He’s still the best all-around contributor at the position, and while Wright could gradually pass him by, A-Rod final production (all that really matters) is still tops at his position.
His deteorating friendship with Derek Jeter, the fact that most Yankee fans despise the man, and the overexaggerated notion that he can’t hit for pressure continually hurt his fantasy status without actually hurting his overall fantasy value. Not that there’s anything wrong with taking David Wright over A-Rod, the man shouldn’t be falling out of the top 10.
c) Roger Clemens – The question for most seemingly isn’t if the Rocket will return, but when will he return and with whom will be returning. Do I personally think Clemens will stay retired in 2007? No, but I’m not willing to bet a roster spot on it, especially not a top 5-6 round pick on it as I’ve seen. Clemens came back to the surprise of very few last season and while he put up good enough numbers to warrant stashing on the bench, I highly doubt he was the deciding factor in anyone’s fortunes. He has #1 fantasy starter potential even to this day and you know he will only end up on a contender with a good lineup behind him. So, why not draft him as your #2 fantasy starter? It’s all about risk vs. reward and while I’d snatch Clemens up in a heartbeat if he does officially return, the risk of permanent retirement vs. the reward of 7 whopping wins a year ago do not balance out.
d) Sammy Sosa – I guess it may seem hypocritical for me to say that Sosa is taking up the spotlight of more-deserving players and then include him in the top storylines, but do remember I don’t make the storylines. Sosa is one year removed from his last season, which he put up 14 HRs and a .221 batting average. He should be revived and could carve out a very good niche as a 4th OF/DH in an offensively-favorable ballpark, but he has no business being on any fantasy roster as of right now.
5) The Catcher Revolution
The parallels to the NFL fantasy season may get tiresome, but consider the recent explosion of productivity at the Tight End position. Baseball has seen an offensive output at the catcher position that has never been seen before, and while Joe Mauer is no Antonio Gates, he is an offensive stud, who is deserving of the 3rd/4th round value he is receiving. Mauer heads a myriad of young, offensive-minded backstops who are revolutionizing the position.
The days of missing out on Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez meaning a season of using eleven different catchers cobining for a .260 batting average and 10 HRs are long gone. The sense of urgency at catcher hasn’t fully diminished, but with a good mix of wily veterans who know how to swing the bat with the new wave of offensive studs make for the most depth the position has ever seen. In some circles, catcher has passed second baseman and shortstops as the least-productive offensive position and has gradually climbed into a position of moedrate respectability. In today’s standard 12-team league, there’s no reason why everyone can’t have a non-liability at the catcher position.
No one was surprised by the continued success of young stars in Joe Mauer or Victor Martinez, but the emergence of, most notably, Brian McCann, bring added intrigue to the position. Throw in Russell Martin, Kenji Johjima, Johnny Estrada, and Ramon Hernandez and the pool of 30 and under catchers who can hit is no long lacking. The continued offensive success of veterans Ivan Rodriguez, Paul LoDuca, Jason Varitek, Michael Barrett, A.J. Pierzynski, Jorge Posada, and Bengie Molina add legitimacy and further depth to the position and round out this solid group. Then, factor in, guys like Josh Bard and David Ross, who came out of nowhere to have solid offensive seasons, and there are countless ways to address the position this offseason. So, while Mauer has top-round value, there’s no need to pull the trigger if you’re confident you can land a Brian McCann or Ramon Hernandez in the middle rounds.
6) The Next Wave
The next generation of offensive catchers, with their improved combination of power and contact, represent a microcosm of the next wave of hitters on the whole. With the emergence of numerous young studs combined with the regression of numerous veterans, and 2007 could be the official changing of the guard at top level of hitters. As the stars of the 90’s continually regress, and the middle-aged players maintain their level of success, the doors have opened for a brand new set of young hitters who are ready to dominate.
Reigning AL MVP Justin Morneau is an integral part of the top-tier hitters with 3 full seasons of experience and the drastic rebound of his value as a fantasy 1B better represents the rapid change. In addition to Morneau, Miguel Cabrera has put back-to-back MVP caliber seasons despite a lack of surrounding talent in the lineup and has solidified his status as a first rounder. The much-heralded David Wright has also achieved first-round status, despite a 2nd half struggle, and offers as much all-around talent as anyone, excluding maybe teammate Jose Reyes.
Joining this elite group of young studs, includes Chase Utley, who with the departure of 2B eligibility for Soriano, has a stranglehold atop the 2B rankings after a 32-HR, .309 campaign. His numbers on his own offer up first round potential and when you factor in his position and he could push his way into the top ten in some drafts along with teammate Ryan Howard, who needs no introduction. Another set of teammates who have earned their right to be mentioned in this next wave, regardless of where they play their home games are Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins, who both put up top-20 offensive seasons in 2006.
Throw in five-tool stud Grady Sizemore and NL ROY Hanley Ramirez, and we could be looking at ten hitters who offer perennial .300/20+ HR potential and represent the new wave of hitters, who should represent more than half of the hitters chosen in the first three rounds of nearly all drafts this offseason.
7) The Rise of the Middle Reliever Class
While there is a definite, noticable dropoff in talent at the starting pitcher position, the dropoff in productive, surefire closers could be even greater and the number of reliable options may be at an all-time low. With Brad Lidge’s recent meltdown, Jon Papelbon’s desire to move to the starting rotation, combined with guys like Ryan Demspter and Jose Valverde keeping their closer status despite less than stellar 2006 campaigns and the chances of landing one, let alone two, dominant closers is almost impossible. That’s not to say a darkhorse candidate can’t emerge like numerous have in the recent past (see: J.J. Putz), but the current list of closers should impress no one.
In addition to subpar relievers like Dempster keeping their jobs, there are numerous teams who have nothing short of a mess at the position, including:
a) The Reds – Eddy Guardado could join the running midseason, but right now it’s a sad toss-up between journeyman relievers Mike Stanton and David Weathers.
b) The Redsox – Mike Timlin is a great set-up man, but he’s not the man you want taking the mound in the ninth inning. He’s a servicable closer, but with mounting pressure and some tough lineups in the AL East, he could get eaten alive. Fellow bullpen-mates don’t offer much more consolation including the erratic Joel Pineiro, untested Hideki Okajima, journeyman Brendan Donnelly, and the inexperienced Craig Hansen.
c) The Devilrays – With Seth McClung as the favorite to win the job, it represents the sad state of this organization. McClung has good stuff but not nearly enough control or presence to be considered a legitimate closer. His closest competition is Dan Miceli, who has bounced back and forth from Japan and has some injury concerns. There are few intriguing darkhorse candidates, but no one worthy of mention at this point.
d) The Pirates – The departure of Mike Gonzalez opens up the opportunity for a young reliever to emerge, but the keys will likely be given to retread, servicable middle-reliever Salomon Torres. Torres fits well as a 7th inning man, but there are much better options playing second-fiddle elsewhere in the MLB. While there are some young competitors, again, no blue-chip prospects are in the mix here.
Take the favorites to win these four jobs, along with the struggles of Lidge, Dempster, and Valverde, and the injury concerns of Eric Gagne, Jason Isgrinhausen, and Octavio Dotel, as well as the mediocrity of aging options like Bob Wickman and Joe Borowski, and the untested Taylor Tankersley, and you’re looking at some questionable closers for more about half of the league.
Surprisingly, while the talent at closer has deteriorated, there are countless middle relievers and set-up men who have some nasty stuff and the potential to revive the dying position. Joel Zumaya is undoubtedly the poster child for guys who should be closing, and with his wickedly, electrifying stuff with his control and make-up, at least he offers fantasy value regardless of his role. Joining him are a pair of newly-acquired Braves, in Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, both whom have closing experience, and a favorable combination of control and the ability to strike out batters.
Another setup man with closing experience, and one who did pretty damn well in a closing position last season, is Akinori Otsuka, who with only oft-injured Eric Gagne standing in his way, is still higher valued than half of the closers out there. With Gagne healthy, Otsuka will also have a good chunk of fantasy value, but that value would be exponentially greater with the closer tag. Similarly, do-it-all, post-hype prospect Adam Wainwright is only one Jason Isgrinhausen injury away from becoming a very sought-after fantasy closer.
Scott Linebrink has represented this underappreciated group for some years now, but with him all but penciled in as Trevor Hoffman’s heir to the throne, we know he’ll eventually get his time to shine. For other intriguing middle relievers, like Juan Rincon, Duaner Sanchez, Jonathan Broxton, and Justin Duchscherer, we will have to wait it out and see, while lesser options get the keys to the ninth inning.
All this said, one trend that could emerge for the first time could be an extremely high rate (30-50%) of pitchers in the top 30 relievers drafted (even if leagues without Holds as a stat) that aren’t tentative closers.
8) Old Guys in New Uniforms
We saw the re-emergence of numerous, aging vets on the verge of calling it quits as well as the continued success of some notable over-the-hillers. While no one suggests you pull a Prince and draft like it’s 1999, going old school in the late round could prove to be very favorable. Some of the most successful old guys earned themselves a change of scenery which could further enhance their value for the 2007 season. The most notable:
a) Frank Thomas – The Big Hurt almost pulled off the biggest upset to win MVP with a white-hot September. The 38-year old was the heart and soul of a punchless A’s lineup, hit 39 HRs, and drove in 114 runs, while many were calling for his retirement at the start of the season. His offensive dominance earned him a new contract with the Blue Jays, with a better supporting cast and a more favorable offensive setting.
b) Mike Piazza – Arguably the greatest offensive catcher of all-time, he just didn’t fit into the Mets’ plans with the signings of Carlos Delgado and Paul LoDuca, and rather than retire, he revived his career in the spacious Petco Park. He got himself a new deal in a very similar situation in Oakland, but with more ability to focus solely on hitting as the A’s new DH. He inherits the job of Frank Thomas and while he isn’t likely to put up 39 HRs, he could continue to gradually improve his power numbers.
c) Randy Johnson – He went to the Yankees as the #1 pitcher in fantasy baseball, and just two years later, he’s leaving as a #3 starter. Maybe it was too much offense in the AL East or the short porch in right field, but returning to the relatively light-hitting NL West and the pitcher-friendly confines of the stadium-formerly-known-as-the-BOB, could spark a revival in Johnson’s career. His numbers in New York weren’t bad by any means, but they didn’t live upto expectations. Returning to a familiar setting with less pressure and those numbers could even get a little better.
d) Moises Alou – Flushing, New York was a popular site of revival last season, as we saw guys like Jose Valentin and Darren Oliver not only return to their level of play from years past, but put up arguably their best numbers in their career. Alou is a very good candidate to continue this trend, after hitting 22 HRs in only 98 games last season, he should find himself in an opportunistic position to drive in runs nearly every game. Shea Stadium isn’t a hitter’s park by any means, but it is a nice upgrade to the spacious AT & T in San Francisco.
e) Gary Sheffield – Everyone has been waiting for Sheffield’s production to come to a screeching halt, but the 38-year old is still in great shape and still put up good potential numbers, despite injury. He gets to focus on hitting as the Tigers’ new DH and will be well-rested come Opening Day. He still looked sharp in his return in September and he hasn’t hit under .290 since 1998.
These five aren’t the only familiar faces in new places this season, but best represent a class of successful veterans, who still offer solid fantasy value, and could see their values rise with a favorable change of scenery. We saw two 40+ year olds in Greg Maddux and Jamie Moyer switch uniforms midway through 2006 and both had enough success to return in 2007, these five are certainly capale of prolonging the trend.
9) Will the Mediocre Pitchers of 2006 Live Up to Their 2007 Salaries?
While Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez will be the most-scrutinized players this fantasy season, no group of players carries a bigger burden than the starting pitchers who joined the eight-figure salary club this season. Pitchers who’ve most recently peaked just above mediocrity found themselves literally striking gold this offseason earning upwards of over $10 million a season; one even found himself getting the cash and the the ace moniker. While these pitchers have often put up solid win totals, with mediocre ERAs and strikeout totals, their increased salary and importance could lead to a spike in fantasy value, but these guys still have a lot to prove:
a) Gil Meche – Meche currently owns a career record of 55-44 with a lackluster 4.65 ERA and a less than 2:1 K:BB ratio. So, he may have the most to prove after a monster payday and inheriting the #1 spot in Kansas City’s rotation. Without phenomenal stuff nor great control, nor a rubber arm, he’ll have to do it with a good amount of luck, defense, and smart pitching. With the Royals likely to get dominated in the best division in baseball, Meche is facing quite a few unfavorable matchups and until proven otherwise, he’s a servicable #4/#5 fantasy starter.
b) Vicente Padilla – A slightly smaller contract with a better track record, Padilla still has a lot to prove. He’s been consistent, but consistently mediocre, and last time I checked, mediocrity wasn’t worth $11,000,000 a year. Padilla is no stranger to double-digit win totals, but his ERA has continually fluctuated and his K/BB ratio is average at best. He’ll have a good offense behind him and he has a good make-up, but despite the big payoff, he isn’t likely to improve beyond #4 fantasy starter status.
c) Adam Eaton – This one may be the most baffling, considering he’s never had a sub-4.00 ERA once in his career and he is coming off a less-than-impressive 5.12 2006 campaign. Eaton still is considered an injury risk and has only topped 30 starts twice in his career. He’ll face some tough offenses in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks around. If all goes well, he could pick up a big win total, but it’ll come with an inflated ERA and WHIP.
d) Jeff Weaver & Miguel Batista – Nobody throws around money to guys coming off a convenient career year like Bill Bavasi, and while both of these guys are getting big paydays, their 2006 seasons were mediocre at best. Weaver’s stock is at its highest in quite some time, which is particularly shocking after posting a 5.76 regular season ERA. Batista, on the other hand, put up a #4-#5 starter-worthy season of mediocre pitching, but earned almost $10,000,000 a season nevertheless. Both have a lot to prove and top out at #5 fantasy starters right now.
f) Ted Lilly & Jason Marquis – Not to be outdone, Cubs GM Jim Hendry invested just about twice as much as Bavasi on his pair of mediocre starters. Lilly, being a lefty with some good stuff has some good potential in 2007, but Marquis, who lost his postseason rotation spot after 35 regular season HRs and a 6.00+ ERA, managed to get $21 million and with the depth at starting pitching for the Cubs, isn’t even guaranteed a spot in the rotation.
While Jeff Suppan may not be worth the four years, $42 million he got this offseason, he looks like a bargain compared to some of these deals. Maybe a change of scenery and added responsbility will turn these pitchers into #2/#3 fantasy starters, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I would be willing to bet these contracts do earn them some added hype and cause them to (undeservedly) creep up the boards on draft day.
10) The Rookie Class
With argubaly the greatest rookie class in recent history in 2006, the rookies of 2007 have some big shoes to fill. With the exception of a hyped-up few, most of them will have to emerge from the shadows to earn their fantasy value in 2007, but this rookie class has the potential to fill those shoes adequately. This class may not have the depth or overall talent of last yea’rs (few ever will), but there are some standouts who could make a montrous impact as well as few sleepers, who could make for some late-round steals in both leagues.
a) The American League – All of the success of last year’s rookie class and no one has the bar set higher than this year’s first-year phenom, Daisuke Matsuzaka. He has the benefit of not having to be the ace in the deepest rotation in baseball and could outpitch his inferior counterparts…..Alex Gordon has dominated every level of play from High School on, and with his rapid tear through the minors, he is viewed as the Royals’ savior. A five-tool talent with a big bat, if he makes the roster, he should have fantasy starter-potential from the get-go…..After a tumultous 2006, Delmon Young may be better prepared to break out than any other rookie in the AL. He’s got natural athleticism, combined with refined skills and offensive potential through the roof. He’ll get plenty of opportunities and he should make the most of them…..Kei Igawa has been overlooked during a highly-publicized Yankee offseason, but his finesse and control could prove successful a la Mike Mussina in the Bronx, and could be a sleeper candidate for ROY…..The Blue Jays’ Adam Lind, White Sox’ Josh Fields, and A’s Daric Barton could make for a strong supporting cast.
b) The National League – While most of the hype lies in the AL, the most prepared and toolsy rookie may be the Diamondbacks’ Chris B. Young, who not only carries a great glove, but has 20 HR potential, a good batting eye, and speed to burn and could have an immediate fantasy impact as the slated starter in CF…..While he has his work cut out for him to earn a roster spot, minor league phenom Felix Pie oozes with the athleticism and tools scout look for and makes for a very tempting late round pick even with potential playing time and/or a roster spot still up in the air. He’s that good, but he’s still that raw…..Troy Tulowitzki had a rough go-about-it in a short stint in 2006, but he showed good poise and has a good eye with a decent bat. He’s a former first rounder and he gets to play his home games in Coors, he should be in the mix for ROY this season……The Mets’ rotation has numerous spots up for grabs and two pitchers in the mix are former first-rounders and potential-laden Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber, both with a solid mix of size and stuff, but both with significant strides to make…Also in the mix and worth noting on draft day are the Diamondbacks’ Micah Owings and the Dodgers’ Adam Laroche.
