Stairing Down & Towering Over the Competition

Update: The Blue Jays made the final touches on their 25-man Opening Day roster with some uninspiring choices to round out the big league club. Josh Towers, who posted a 2-10 record with an eyesore ERA of 8.42 in 12 starts last season pulled out the #5 starter spot over Victor Zambrano. Meanwhile, 39-year old Matt Stairs, who hit .247 with 13 HRs while splitting time between the Royals, Tigers, and Rangers in 2006, took home the fourth outfielder spot over super-prospect Adam Lind.

The View: Towers had a good spring, but at 30 years old as the owner of a career 4.89 ERA and a lifetime 40-45 record, there is no upside here. Victor Zambrano, who is the better starter in my mind, might just benefit from the move, though. Zambrano, who is still building up his endurance, would translate well as a future closer if he can cover his much-improved control and with a set-up man vacancy, he could make the first steps to a successful transition. He’ll have to fight off former closer Jason Frasor for the set-up man spot and a move back to the rotation isn’t out of the question by any means, but I like his value as a back-end reliever in AL-only or deeper leagues for the time being.

Stairs, regardless of the 4th outfield job, still has no fantasy value. He’s had old player skills since he reached the majors and now he’s actually an old player to go with it. His average is always shaky, he strikes out far too often, he won’t get many at-bats in a loaded lineup and he’s already blocked off at DH with Frank Thomas’ presence. He can still jack the ball out of the yard on occasion, but he’s more or less just keeping the spot warm for Adam Lind, when he is ready to push Reed Johnson for the starting LF job by mid-season, at which point, Stairs will likely be forced to find his fifth suitor since the start of the 2006 season.

AL West Fantasy Preview

The AL West has been a two-team race between the Oakland A’s and Los Angeles Angels since the Mariners posted their 116-win, MLB-best record in 2001. The A’s and Angels have been on opposite ends of the spectrum in years past, as the Angels have relied heavily on key free agent acquisitions, a big payroll, and a productive offense. In contrast, the A’s have built their success largely on homegrown talent through the minor leagues, a diminutive payroll, and top-notch pitching. With each squad addressing their weaknesses to the best of their abilities and deviating more toward balanced squads, the race could be as tight as ever in 2007. Both have been hit hard by injuries and the Angels have some detrimental off-the-field issues including Gary Matthews, Jr. getting linked to the steroid scene and the resulting clubhouse chemistry, meanwhile the A’s have some big shoes to fill with Bob Geren replacing Ken Macha as manager, Mike Piazza replacing Frank Thomas at DH, and quite a few new faces on the field due to injuries striking early and often.

Despite both squads expected to be amongst the best the AL has to offer, they’ll have some added pressure to maintain success with a revived, reloaded Texas Rangers unit that could be a serious sleeper in 2007. Ron Washington takes over as manager after years as a successful assistant coach and with him includes arguably the best rotation the team has produced in the last decade, one of the best infields in baseball, a solid bullpen, and good team chemistry. The Rangers could have some back of the rotation issues and their outfield could struggle to be productive, but they’re an all-around solid squad who could surprise this season.

Finally, rounding out the division are the Mariners, who are still in the midst of an extended rebuilding phase. General manager Bill Bavasi continues to spend heavily on mediocre, aging veterans, while ignoring the farm system and the bullpen. The Mariners have some very good cornerstone players in Ichiro, Felix Hernandez, J.J. Putz, and Raul Ibanez, but the overspending on below-average arms like Jeff Weaver and Miguel Batista, while relying on the low-upside, inexperienced relievers and a weak bench will likely keep them in the cellar for at least another season.

The AL West never disappoints regarding their competitiveness to take home the division crown and with two evenly matched teams atop the division and with a potential dark horse emerging, it should come down to the wire again in 2007. Whether or not the AL West representative is good enough to match up with the winners in the east and the central and end the division’s recent playoff futility is yet to be seen.

Here are my predictions for the division:

Standings:

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Oakland A’s
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners

1. Los Angeles Angels
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 90.5
My Prediction: Over (91-93)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 1
Defense: 2
Bench: 1
Starting Pitching: 1
Bullpen: 1

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Howie Kendrick, 2B
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Gary Matthews, Jr., CF
Top Sleeper: Ervin Santana, SP
Deep Sleeper: Casey Kotchman, 1B

2. Oakland A’s
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 85.5
My Prediction: Over (86-88)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 4
Defense: 1
Bench: 4
Starting Pitching: 2
Bullpen: 2

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Eric Chavez, 3B
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Bobby Crosby, SS
Top Sleeper: Milton Bradley, CF
Deep Sleeper: Travis Buck, OF

3. Texas Rangers
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 80.5
My Prediction: Over (81-83)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 2
Defense: 3-t
Bench: 2
Starting Pitching: 3
Bullpen: 3

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Hank Blalock, 3B
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Eric Gagne, RP
Top Sleeper: Brandon McCarthy, SP
Deep Sleeper: Jason Botts, DH

4. Seattle Mariners
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 77.5
My Prediction: Under (71-73)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 3
Defense: 3-t
Bench: 3
Starting Pitching: 4
Bullpen: 4

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Felix Hernandez, SP
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Jeff Weaver, SP
Top Sleeper: Arthur Rhodes, RP
Deep Sleeper: Yuniesky Betancourt, SS

AL West All-Fantasy Starting Lineup:

C: Kenji Johjima, SEA
1B: Mark Teixeira, TEX
2B: Howie Kendrick, LAA
SS: Michael Young, TEX
3B: Adrian Beltre, SEA
RF: Vladimir Guerrero, LAA
CF: Ichiro Suzuki, SEA
LF: Raul Ibanez, SEA
DH: Nick Swisher, OAK

SP1: John Lackey, LAA
SP2: Rich Harden, OAK
SP3: Dan Haren, OAK
SP4: Felix Hernandez, SEA
SP5: Kevin Millwood, TEX
RP1: Francisco Rodriguez, LAA
RP2: J.J. Putz, SEA

AL West Top 5 Prospects for 2007:

1. Daric Barton, OAK
2. Travis Buck, OAK
3. Erick Aybar, LAA
4. Adam Jones, SEA
5. Brandon Wood, LAA

Fourth Outfielders

With the usual, solid depth in the outfield in any given season, combined with the fact that just about every league allows you to carry a few hitters on the bench, selecting your back-ups outfielders (specifically your 4th outfielder) can have a considerable impact on your team. Fourth outfielders, even if your OF stays in perfect health (which almost never happens), should see a good amount of playing time between slumps, off-days, and what have you. Fourth outfielders should be able to start in a pinch, have the potential for long-term starting, and in leagues that specify by outfield position, should be able to handle at least two of the three OF positions. For this article, I am going to subjectively establish the outfielders I believe are starters, based on IDP reports, rankings, and stats, and from that, I will draw together the best fourth outfield candidates for 12-team, non-specific OF position, leagues.

When creating this list of the best fourth outfielder candidates, I realized that I was starting to group some of the candidates together based on their niche; then I eventually realized I could roughly group each set of a few into general categories. Some of the 4th outfielders qualified for more than one category, but most of which are pretty well-defined by the one I selected for them. Upon completion of the top 4th outfield candidates and their groupings, I’ll rank them all at the bottom based on potential, startability, and value.

This Year’s OF Starters:

Note: In a 12-team league, there will be 36 OF starters, but this list includes the top 39 outfielders, since Lance Berkman, Nick Swisher, and Adam Dunn, will all have first base eligibility, but have been equally split between 1B/OF in drafts thus far. One players noticeably absent is Chone Figgins, whose abilities and positional flexibility best suit him as an infielder, and since he is currently injured, I felt it was best to just leave him off the list.

Bobby Abreu (NYY), Rocco Baldelli (TAM), Jason Bay (PIT), Carlos Beltran (NYM), Lance Berkman (HOU), Pat Burrell (PHI), Eric Byrnes (ARZ), Mike Cameron (SDO), Carl Crawford (TAM), Coco Crisp (BOS), Mike Cuddyer (MIN), Johnny Damon (NYY), J.D. Drew (BOS), Adam Dunn (CIN), Jermaine Dye (CWS), Jeff Francouer (ATL), Vladimir Guerrero (LAA), Brad Hawpe (COL), Matt Holliday (COL), Torii Hunter (MIN), Raul Ibanez (SEA), Andruw Jones (ATL), Austin Kearns (WAS), Carlos Lee (HOU), Nick Markakis (BAL), Hideki Matsui (NYY), Magglio Ordonez (DET), Corey Patterson (BAL), Juan Pierre (LAD), Manny Ramirez (BOS), Alexis Rios (TOR), Gary Sheffield (DET), Grady Sizemore (CLE), Alfonso Soriano (CHC), Ichiro Suzuki (SEA), Willy Taveras (COL), Vernon Wells (TOR), Delmon Young (TAM)

This Year’s top 4th Outfielders:

Group 1: The Base Stealers

Ranking the Candidates:
1.  Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds
Why he’s a good 4th OF: 3 straight seasons of 36+ SBs, starting CF job, good positional flexibility, showed some pop last season
Why he’s not a starter: low runs scored, very little RBI production, career .274 hitter with little pop, never a full-time starter

2.  Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants
Why he’s a good 4th OF: 40+ SB potential, hit .293 last season, low K rates, good walk rates, lack of HR power balanced out by triples
Why he’s not a starter: not a great run scorer, never topped 130 games in a season, very little power or RBIs, career .270 hitter

3. Scott Podsednik, Chicago White Sox
Why he’s a good 4th OF: good run scorer, dominant base stealer when healthy, has some pop when forced to use it, can hit for doubles and potential to lead league in SBs
Why he’s not a starter: hit 3 HRs in last two seasons, battling hamstring injury, strikes out often, only hit .261 last season

4. Chris Duffy, Pittsburgh Pirates
Why he’s a good 4th OF: good upside, can hit for AVG when healthy, stole 26 bases in half-season last year, efficient base stealer (28 for 31 in career attempts)
Why he’s not a starter: very little power, doesn’t hit for extra-base hits, battled injury last season, only hit .255 in 2006, draws very few walks, not great lineup behind him

5. Kenny Lofton, Texas Rangers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: 54 SBs over last two years, back-to-back .300+ seasons, 12 triples in ‘06, still scores runs and in a good lineup to do so
Why he’s not a starter: could split time with Marlon Byrd, very little upside, could fall off at age 39, injuries and at bats in question, no power

6. Nook Logan, Washington Nationals
Why he’s a good 4th OF: can easily be found off waiver wire, 33 career SBs in only 545 ABs, good speed and upside, low strikeout totals
Why he’s not a starter: may not be a fulltime starter, not much pop, very low walk rates, not a big run scorer, poor lineup, no track record

Value: The majority of the top-notch base stealers are usually below average producers in the ther major offensive categories, which makes them very suitable for 4th outfielder roles. Most can post a batting average that won’t hurt your lineup, will score some runs, and will get plenty of plate appearance due to sitting atop their lineups. They don’t offer much power production, but their speed can generate some value and they can be eased into the starting lineup if injuries strikes to offset readily found power, which most lineup have in excess.

Group 2: The Pure Power Hitters

Ranking the Candidates:
1. Josh Willingham, Florida Marlins
Why he’s a good 4th OF: good upside, hit 26 HRs in first year as starter, solid .277 AVG, still developing, consistent hitter, off-chance of regaining catcher eligibility
Why he’s not a starter: only drove in 74 runs and scored 62, very little speed, defense could be a liability and hurt playing time, not much protection in lineup

2. Craig Monroe, Detroit Tigers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: 3 seasons of 20 or more HR in last 4 years, career-high 28 HR last season, drove in 92 runs, modest run scorer, good doubles hitter
Why he’s not a starter: Strikes out way too often, little, inconsistent speed, .263 career hitter with very low OBP, for pure power needs to hit more HRs (18 in ‘04, 20 in ‘05) 

3. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles
Why he’s a good 4th OF: great track record, returning to division where he thrived and returns to hitters’ park, still has above-average power and will get ABs
Why he’s not a starter: HRs and RBIs have dropped four straight seasons, run-scoring abilities have decreased to below AVG, no speed, rapidly declining, low walks

4. Cliff Floyd, Chicago Cubs
Why he’s a good 4th OF: last full season hit 34 HRs and drove in 98, can still steal some bases, good power-hitting track record when healthy, draws walks, good lineup
Why he’s not a starter: arguably most injury-prone hitter in baseball, only .244 when healthy last season, could be platooned in LF, speed declining, runs scored an issue

5. Jonny Gomes, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Why he’s a good 4th OF: showed untapped power potential with scorching April numbers in 2006, draws walks, still young with upside and could rebound, modest speed
Why he’s not a starter: recovering from shoulder injury, hit .216 last season and will hit triple-digit striekout totals, doesn’t drive in enough runs for power, runs scored an issue

6. Marcus Thames, Detroit Tigers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: very good raw power, can hit for doubles, and has been spectacular in hot streaks, 1B experiment could give him added flexibility
Why he’s not a starter: playing time in question as team’s 4th OF, career .241 AVG is a huge liability, high K totals, low runs scored, 1 career SB, unlikely to start

Value: Pure power hitters do what they do best: hit HRs and rack up the indirect potential of RBIs and runs scored that come with each HR. Their AVGs are usually not pretty, they don’t steal many bases, and their upside is generally low, but because they can mash, they are a good bench filler and if they’re hitting HRs, they have starter value. Each HR is good for at least 1 RBI and 1 R as well, so when they’re on their power hot streaks, they’re capable starters with good trade value.

Group 3: The Glorified, Aging Veterans

Ranking the Candidates:
1. Moises Alou, New York Mets
Why he’s a good 4th OF: back-to-back .300+ seasons, career .301 hitter, still has 25/25 HR/DB power, draws good number of walks, enters one of best lineups in baseball
Why he’s not a starter: Only 221 games played in last two years, injuries a concern, takes a lot of days off to rest, runs scored rapidly decreasing, no speed, only average RBIs

2.Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants
Why he’s a good 4th OF: hit .292 post all-star break in 2006, still showed above-average power with 26 HRs in 367 ABs, ridiculously high walk rates, solid AVG
Why he’s not a starter: injuries, aging, and legal concerns all limit playing time and his knee is still a concern, power has noticeably dropped a bit, traditionally low RBI totals

3. Garret Anderson, Los Angeles Angels
Why he’s a good 4th OF: uncanny consistency, has never hit below .280 in 12 seasons, very good clutch hitter, good RBI totals, modest power, good safety valve, good lineup
Why he’s not a starter: no speed, below-average runs scored, power has decreased, AVG still solid but dropping, age and playing time could be concerns

4. Ken Griffey, Jr., Cincinnati Reds
Why he’s a good 4th OF: still shows very good power, good RBI production, lifetime .291 hitter, who hit .301 in last full season, skills still sharp when healthy, will add RF eligibility
Why he’s not a starter: sub-.265 AVG in four of last five seasons, has spent time on DL in each of last six seasons, very injury prone, SBs have completely diminished

5. Jim Edmonds, St. Louis Cardinals
Why he’s a good 4th OF: when healthy he still offers above-average HR and RBI totals, very good walk rates, modest runs scored when healthy, good doubles hitter
Why he’s not a starter: hindered by aging, HR, RBI, SB, R, AVG all have dropped each of last three years to average at best, still battling injuries, could lose some playing time

6. Luis Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: healthy with 316 hits since ‘05, hit 52 (!) doubles in ’06still has modest power, solid RBI totals, very impressive walk rates, still scores 90+ runs
Why he’s not a starter: will turn 40 at end of season, still relative injury risk, no speed or SB potential, power is average at best, hasn’t topped 80 RBIs since ‘03, low upside

Value: Established stars, while still risky as they enter the final stages of their career, offer you the comfort of having a hitter with a great track record on the bench and shoring up the depth chart. They usually still offer very good power, good number of at-bats and if they stay healthy, can still generate very good production. They may be power-specific and their speed may be on the decline, but they are the perfect comlement to risky, young OF starters.

Group 4: The Jacks of All Trades, Masters of None

Ranking the Candidates:
1. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: above-average mix of speed and power, hit 19 HRs and power is still developing, good walk rates, scored 90 runs, good source of DBs and TPR, modest SBs
Why he’s not a starter: led league in strikeouts last season, many holes in swing, may be overvalued after postseason success, won’t offer much more than league average power

2. Gary Matthews, Jr., Los Angeles Angels
Why he’s a good 4th OF: has always posted very solid DB & HR rates per AB, has double-digit SB speed, moves to hitters’ park, scored 100+ runs last season, modest walks
Why he’s not a starter: has never been starter quality before last season’s contract year, steroid and off-the-field issues could hurt playing time, production, low RBI totals

3. Preston Wilson, St. Louis Cardinals
Why he’s a good 4th OF: still capable of 20+ HRs, SB totals on the rise, good doubles hitter, slugging percentage always hovers around .500, still some upside
Why he’s not a starter: playing time in serious question, power on the decline, 15 SB max. potential, not a good source of runs or walks, average hitter at best since leaving Coors

4. Milton Bradley, Oakland A’s
Why he’s a good 4th OF: still has some untapped power potential, career average translates to 16 SBs for a full season, good doubles hitter, can offer plus AVG & OBP
Why he’s not a starter: off-the-field and character issues have limited production, could return to bench when Kotsay is healthy, has struggled with AVG as of late, weak lineup

5. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals
Why he’s a good 4th OF: lifetime .292 hitter with AVG rising in each of last three seasons, scored 83 runs and if lineup improves total could come near 100, good doubles hitter
Why he’s not a starter: HR & SB totals too low to offer much value, useless if he doesn’t hit at least .290, RBI totals will always be low as leadoff hitter, 50% career SB success

6. Aaron Rowand, Philadelphia Phillies
Why he’s a good 4th OF: solid mix of speed and power, hits in a solid lineup in hitters’ park and gets to face weak divisional pitching staffs, very good doubles hitter
Why he’s not a starter: HRs and SBs have both declined in each of last three years, could be traded and role is undefined, injury risks, high K and low walk rate, poor OBP

Value: These are the prototypical back-ups, they can fill in at numerous positions, can contribute a little to every category and make for ideal roster fillers. They can start in a pinch, offer modest versatile contributions and if they can excel in one particular area, they could force a platoon if a hitter is struggling. They may not give you jaw-dropping power or stolen bases, but they are often overlooked and offer more value than they are given credit for.

Group 5: The Overlooked, Low-Upside, Middle-Aged Veterans

Ranking the Candidates:
1. Jacque Jones, Chicago Cubs
Why he’s a good 4th OF: 23 or more HR in 4 of last 5 seasons, double-digit SB potential, consistent average-to-above-average runs and RBI totals, improved lineup around him
Why he’s not a starter: AVG can be a liability and fluctuates too often, tops out at 80 RBI potential, average SB totals at best, high K totals, could be traded, future is murky

2. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres
Why he’s a good 4th OF: still one of the best doubles hitters, triple-digit walk totals, above-average RBIs, has shown elite hitter capabilities, good side of steals, good run totals
Why he’s not a starter: pitchers’ park in pitchers’ division limits upside, could age rapidly at 36, power is below average and AVG is on sharp decline, OBP dropped 50 points in ‘063. Juan Encarnacion, St. Louis Cardinals
Why he’s a good 4th OF: three straight seasons of consistent modest HR, DB and RBI totals, still has some upside, AVG has gradually improved, offers safe, modest hitting
Why he’s not a starter: will start season on DL with wrist injury, could have ABs limited upon return, not a good source of runs, SBs have dropped and are below average

4. Emil Brown, Kansas City Royals
Why he’s a good 4th OF: back-to-back seasons of .286 and .287 AVG, has averaged 16 HRs and 84 RBIs since winning starting job, very consistent since ‘05, usually undrafted
Why he’s not a starter: emerging from obscurity still makes him risky and suceptible to sharp dropoff, poor lineup, could be squeezed for playing time by younger hitters

5. Randy Winn, San Francisco Giants
Why he’s a good 4th OF: capable of 20+ SB potential when healthy, good doubles hitter, slightly above-average run scorer, showed still starter-quality when on hot streak
Why he’s not a starter: below average power, RBI totals generally low and inconsistent, low walk rates, should score more runs based on tools, only hit .262 in ‘06

6. Geoff Jenkins, Milwaukee Brewers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: prior to last season, had three straight years of 25+ HRs/86+ RBIs, still a capable power source, good doubles hitter, can still have positive AVG
Why he’s not a starter: set to platoon with Mench in ‘07, power and runs scored sharply declined, AVG is inconsistent, no speed, very high strikeout rates, .434 SLG in ‘06

Value: As the protoypical safety valves, the overlooked, low-upside veterans offer good durability, experience, modest power, and a solid, cheap borderline-starter, when they’re hitting well. Veterans give you a good presence on the bench and make owners feel more comfortable about subbing in and out outfielders when one is struggling or hurt. Guys like these don’t offer much potential, but have proven to be capable starters but are often overlooked because of a lack of flash.

Group 6: The Up-and-Comers

Ranking the Candidates:
1. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: great size, power, athleticism, untapped power potential, can steal bases, great minor league track record, starting job intact, still available late in drafts
Why he’s not a starter: posted unimpressive run total in debut, low walk rates, large strike zone could result in high K totals, poor SB success rate, not enough DBs in ‘06

2. Chris Burke, Houston Astros
Why he’s a good 4th OF: has double-digit HR potential, underrated speed and base stealer, potential for double-digit runs atop lineup, hits in hitters’ park, modest DBs
Why he’s not a starter: career .258 AVG, very low walk rates, needs to prove he can handle full-season workload, average power at best, RBIs could be an issue

3. Luke Scott, Houston Astros
Why he’s a good 4th OF: hit .336 /.426/.622 in major league debut, established minor league hitter, very good K/BB rate, in his prime, above-average power, will get ABs
Why he’s not a starter: low upside and possibility of sharp dropoff second go-around, very little speed, won’t score a ton of runs, averaged 107 K had he played full-season in ‘06

4. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies
Why he’s a good 4th OF: solid contact hitter with leadoff capabilities, blazing speed, good triples hitter, solid run scorer, good situation to develop as hitter in solid lineup
Why he’s not a starter: could have short leash as starter, speed has yet to translate into high SB totals, very low basement and may not be starter-quality, below-average power

5. Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: former top prospect who has shown 20/15 potential, hit .308 in ML debut last season, just above-average run scored and RBI producer, good upside
Why he’s not a starter: may struggle in severe pitchers’ park, low success rate as base stealer, 2/1 K/BB rate needs to improve, numbers dropped as season progressed

6. Chris Duncan, St. Louis Cardinals
Why he’s a good 4th OF: has 30 HR potential, draws decent number of walks, hit .293 last season, handled pressure well, will get ABs, low speed but can still post good runs scored
Why he’s not a starter: nothing in track record shows he is capable of hitting anywhere near .293 again, high K rates, old-player skills, could be platooned, no steals

Value: Too risky to be starters and too much potential to be mired on the bench, up-and-comers give you great upside at a low price and instant startability if they can continue their successful development. They’re still available in the latter stages of the draft, are entering their primes, are very enticing trade commodities, provide good youth, and are arguably the best price-to-production gorup of fourth outfielders in 2007. They usually have some fleixibility as they discover their niches and should develop more power with added playing time.

Group 7: The Prospects

Ranking the Candidates:
1. Chris B. Young, Arizona Diamondbacks
Why he’s a good 4th OF: Locked in as starting CF, very toolsy, has 20/20 potential, hitters’ park, should be solid all-around producer and good run scorer in improved lineup
Why he’s not a starter: Could struggle with AVG as seen by .243 in 70 ABs last season, never a dominant minor league hitter, average power at best, not great source of doubles

2. Lastings Milledge, New York Mets
Why he’s a good 4th OF: hot spring could win him starting job, blazing speed, raw power and developing offensive tools, great lineup surrounding him, good potential for runs
Why he’s not a starter: struggled mightily in ‘06, will start season on bench, power in question, character issues could force a trade, speed has yet to translate to high SBs

3. Jeremy Hermida, Florida Marlins
Why he’s a good 4th OF: one of the best minor league hitters and top prospect in past five years, untapped potential, good size and athleticism, good doubles hitter, 30 HR potential
Why he’s not a starter: he’ll start season on DL and has been injury prone in young career, playing time in question, .256 career major league hitter, not much speed

4. Carlos Quentin, Arizona Diamondbacks
Why he’s a good 4th OF: bulky, strong power hitter who can fill spot in heart of the lineup, plays in hitters’ park, showed ability to shred pitching upon MLB arrival, decent walk rate
Why he’s not a starter: will start season on DL and could battle with shoulder injury, cooled off after hot start and only hit .253 in ‘06, high K totals, very little speed

5. Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays
Why he’s a good 4th OF: has hit well at every level, good power lefty with above-average batting eye, good position flexibility, only Reed Johnson stands in way of starting job
Why he’s not a starter: will start season in minors, never has possessed remote speed, could struggle to get playing time on stacked roster, could still use some seasoning

6. Adam Jones, Seattle Mariners
Why he’s a good 4th OF: very good speed, former blue-chip prospect with untapped potential, could offer good flexibility and production as all-around back-up on M’s
Why he’s not a starter: struggled with hitting consistently and figuring out major league pitching, weak lineup, could be pressed for ABs, still very raw, average power at best

Value: Their value is purely in their upside and their instant value should they inherit a starting job. They’re toolsy, they offer very good flashy production, can provide a spark off the bench by getting off to a hot start, and can usually swipe a bag at a steady rate. Prospects are usually very low risk, high upside options and while they are risky as a 4th outfielder in that they may be forced to start on your squad without actually having a starting job, they complement aging veterans very well.

Group 8: The Undrafted, Playing-time-in-question, Deep Sleepers

Ranking the Candidates:
1. David Dellucci, Cleveland Indians
Why he’s a good 4th OF: can hit for average in smaller workloads and has shown 25+ HR potential in larger roles, will get good number of ABs in a very good lineup, some speed
Why he’s not a starter: terrible doubles hitter, low upside and best suited as a MLB team’s 4th OF, high K rate, inconsistent walks and runs scored, below-average RBIs

2. Jason Kubel, Minnesota Twins
Why he’s a good 4th OF: established minor leaguer hitter who could develop some serious pop, can focus on hitting as DH, entering prime years, could post Cuddyer-like numbers
Why he’s not a starter: struggled adjusting to ML-pitching with .241 AVG and .279 OBP, below-average strikeout rate, low walk totals, not great source of runs, low SBs

3. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs
Why he’s a good 4th OF: has translated very well as major league hitter and has shown starter capability, developing above-average power, decent speed, very good walk rate
Why he’s not a starter: will platoon with Cliff Floyd to start season and could be limited as a bench player, won’t steal double-digit bases, average runs and RBIs as ceiling

4. Ryan Church, Washington Nationals
Why he’s a good 4th OF: can handle all three OF spots, good size and power, still a toolsy offensive option, some speed, has shown flashes of brilliance, decent walks totals
Why he’s not a starter: struggled with injury, poor lineup, plays in severe pitchers’ park, could be platooned with Chris Snelling, high strikeouts hurt AVG, low runs scored

5. Terrmel Sledge, San Diego Padres
Why he’s a good 4th OF: hit 6 HRs in ST, shown very good power potential, can draw walks, average doubles hitter who could take advantage of large PETCO gaps, starting job
Why he’s not a starter: lifetime .261 MLB hitter with high K totals and not much potential for higher average, low runs and very low SB totals, could struggle with RBIs, already 30

6. Melky Cabrera, New York Yankees
Why he’s a good 4th OF: showed capable of starting on even a quality team, handled pressure well, good flexibility, good all-around tools, above-average speed, draws walks
Why he’s not a starter: slated as 4th outfielder and will struggle to get ABs, below-average power, could have reached ceiling in ‘06, not much more upside

Value: With playing time in question, it’s hard to offer much value as the next-in-line starter, but their value lies in being able to put good peripherals and modest production in small stints. Also, since they can usually be plucked off the waiver wire, they allow you to focus on other needs, have very little risk, and are usually one injury away from stepping into the limelight and being a very tradeable commodity.

The Top 10 uncategorized fourth outfield candidates

Ranking the Candidates:
1. Jose Guillen, Seattle Mariners
Why he’s a good 4th OF: above-average power, still in peak years, got much-needed change of scenery, good doubles hitter, good source of runs when healthy
Why he’s not a starter: hit .216 last season, still fighting fluke tag and very risky, character issues have caused adverse effects, very low walk rates, generally low RBIs

2. Juan Rivera, Los Angeles Angels
Why he’s a good 4th OF: hit .310-23-85 in ‘06 despite inconsistent playing time, can be a consistent .300 hitter, low K totals, good doubles hitter, starter-quality upside
Why he’s not a starter: broke his leg in winter ball and could miss most of ‘07, even when he returns playing time in jeopardy, below-average speed, not good source of runs

3. Xavier Nady, Pittsburgh Pirates
Why he’s a good 4th OF: good pedigree, hit .300 upon arriving in Pittsburgh, late bloomer who has gradually refined his tools, starter-capable during hot streaks, modest pop
Why he’s not a starter: still improving, but his ceiling is significantly lower than as a prospect, tops out at 20 HR potential, terrible walk rate, low runs scored and speed

4. Reed Johnson, Toronto Blue Jays
Why he’s a good 4th OF: all-around modest producer with double-digit HR power, hit .319 in ‘06, good doubles hitter, very underrated and overlooked, good lineup
Why he’s not a starter: played over his head in ‘06, high BABIP indicate dropoff in AVG expected, tops out at 10-12 SB potential, low RBI totals, could be on short leash

5. Shawn Green, New York Mets
Why he’s a good 4th OF: still possesses some pop, enough speed to score decent runs and steal a few bases, in a great lineup, good track record, young enough to rebound
Why he’s not a starter: HRs and RBIs have dropped three straight years, speed rapidly declining, inconsistent AVG as of late, hit .257 as a Met, could lose starting job

6. Wily Mo Pena, Boston Red Sox
Why he’s a good 4th OF: capable of monster power production, good outfield flexibility, showed improvement as a hitter in AL, posted .301 AVG last season, still in prime
Why he’s not a starter: terrible walk rates, very high strikeout totals, on the bench behind quality starters, very little speed, doesn’t drive in or score enough runs to match power

7. Shannon Stewart, Oakland A’s
Why he’s a good 4th OF: career .299 hitter, who hit .293 in ‘06, decent speed on basepaths, low strikeout totals, could score good number of runs if healthy
Why he’s not a starter: battling injury and decreasing effectiveness as hitter, below average power and declining speed, could be useless if he doesn’t hit .300, poor lineup

8. Rob Mackowiak, Chicago White Sox
Why he’s a good 4th OF: can hit for average in smaller stints, hit .290 in ‘06, has modest speed and can steal some bases, good flexibility, decent pop, occasional hot streak
Why he’s not a starter: considered more of a utility player than a starter, struggles with AVG in large workloads, high strikeout totals, low runs and RBIs, should hit more doubles

9. Jay Gibbons, Baltimore Orioles
Why he’s a good 4th OF: back-to-back seasons of .277 show improved batting eye and modest consistency, still has good power potential, hitters’ park and improved lineup
Why he’s not a starter: low walk rates, never a good source of runs, very low RBI totals compared to HRs hit, no speed, constant injury concerns, could be platooned

10. Kevin Mench, Milwaukee Brewers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: can single-handedly win you a week during his annual hot streak, has tremendous power, surprisingly low strikeout rates, decent doubles hitter
Why he’s not a starter: in a platoon in ‘07, has struggled outside of Arlington, AVG fluctuates and could be a liability, inconsistent, susceptible to long cold spells, low runs

Last minute addition:

Elijah Dukes, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Why he’s a good 4th OF: announced opening day CF starter, he’s very toolsy, can hit for .300, has raw power, good speed, overmatched minor league pitching
Why he’s not a starter: starting job is temporary and likely platoon at DH when Baldelli can return to CF, character issues, still raw, could struggle against big-league pitching

Ranking the Fourth Outfield Options for 2007:

-Note: these rankings are not based solely on production potential, but as well as playing time, injury risk, and value compared to draft position and waiver wire availability.

1. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers
2. Chris B. Young, Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Moises Alou, New York Mets
4. Jacque Jones, Chicago Cubs
5. Josh Willingham, Florida Marlins
6. Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds
7. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres
8. Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants
9. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers
10. Chris Burke, Houston Astros
11. Luke Scott, Houston Astros
12. Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants
13. Gary Matthews, Jr., Los Angeles Angels
14. Garret Anderson, Los Angeles Angels
15. David Dellucci, Cleveland Indians
16. Craig Monroe, Detroit Tigers
17. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles
18. Jason Kubel, Minnesota Twins
19. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs
20. Jose Guillen, Seattle Mariners
21. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies
22. Scott Podsednik, Chicago White Sox
23. Ken Griffey, Jr., Cincinnati Reds
24. Cliff Floyd, Chicago Cubs
25. Lastings Milledge, New York Mets
26. Juan Encarnacion, St. Louis Cardinals
27. Chris Duffy, Pittsbirgh Pirates
28. Jeremy Hermida, Florida Marlins
29. Juan Rivera, Los Angeles Angels
30. Elijah Dukes, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
31. Preston Wilson, St. Louis Cardinals
32. Milton Bradley, Oakland A’s
33. Andre Etheir, Los Angeles Dodgers
34. Carlos Quentin, Arizona Diamondbacks
35. Jim Edmonds, St. Louis Cardinals
36. Chris Duncan, St. Louis Cardinals
37. Xavier Nady, Pittsburgh Pirates
38. Reed Johnson, Toronto Blue Jays
39. Jonny Gomes, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
40. Emil Brown, Kansas City Royals
41. Randy Winn, San Francisco Giants
42. Ryan Church, Washington Nationals
43. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals
44. Terrmel Sledge, San Diego Padres
45. Kenny Lofton, Texas Rangers
46. Melky Cabrera, New York Yankees
47. Luis Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers
48. Aaron Rowand, Philadelphia Phillies
49. Shawn Green, New York Mets
50. Nook Logan, Washington Nationals
51. Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays
52. Geoff Jenkins, Milwaukee Brewers
53. Wily Mo Pena, Boston Red Sox
54. Marcus Thames, Detroit Tigers
55. Adam Jones, Seattle Mariners
56. Shannon Stewart, Oakland A’s
57. Rob Mackowiak, Chicago White Sox
58. Jay Gibbons, Baltimore Orioles
59. Kevin Mench, Milwaukee Brewers
60. Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers

Around the League

With all the roster moves and injury news that has occurred over the past few days, this news brief will touch upon all the top stories and their potential impact.

Update: Eric Gagne, much to the surprise of no one, will start the season on the 15-day DL as he continues to recover from back and elbow surgery. All reports state he should be ready to return by the end of April.

The View: Reports also said he’d be ready by Opening Day and you get the feeling seeing Gagne ever pitch again for an extended period of time is becoming more and more enigmatic. For all I know at this point, he could spend the whole season on the DL again. His velocity is way down and he wasn’t overwhelming anyone this spring. Akinori Otsuka now assumes the role of closer and sees his value skyrocket, and this should end any trade talks regarding Otsuka getting swapped for an OF.

Update: Dan Johnson, who collided with Yorvit Torrealba on the basepaths Monday, suffered some torn hip cartilage, which will keep him out up to three months. He’ll start the year on the 15-day DL, but it’s very possible he’ll need extra time to heal the damaged cartilage and even he could come back sooner, he’d be limited to a DH role.

The View: Johnson’s view was pretty low to begin with after flopping in his first full season as a potential starter. This shouldn’t have much long term effect on his ability to mash, but he was never a great first baseman to begin with and trading him when he’s healthy to serve as someone else’s DH seems more and more likely. With Mark Kotsay’s injury already forcing Nick Swisher into RF, the A’s may have to turn to Erubiel Durazo (no joke) to start at 1B on Opening Day.

Update: Carl Pavano is named Opening Day starter for the Yankees. He will be proceeded by Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Kei Igawa, and a 5th pitcher yet to be named.

The View: The only reason this should raise Pavano’s minimal value is because at least he is healthy enough to start and possibly the healthiest of all Yankee starters at this point. He’s still got durability issues and his long term health is anybody’s guess. He’s also got to prove 2004 wasn’t a fluke and he can handle AL hitting. Luckily he’ll get the Opening Day nod against the Devil Rays, so if you’re looking as if you’ll need a cheap win or two during the first week of the season because of injuries or 4-man rotations and whatnot, picking up Pavano wouldn’t be the worst idea.

Update: Kenny Rogers will start the day on the 15-day DL due to arm fatigue. Rumors are circulating that it could be a blood clot in his pitching arm.

The View: I’m not buying the rumors; the Tigers’ rotation was grossly overworked down the stretch last season, which I’ve said on here numerous times. Bonderman is a workhorse who can handle that type of load and Robertson is a light tosser who won’t wear himself out, but 41-year old Kenny Rogers and rookie Justin Verlander could definitely show some ill effects this season. Luckily for Rogers, assuming it is just arm fatigue, he should be up and running as normal after getting some rest.

Update: Alejandro De Aza wins the starting job in center field over Alex Sanchez and Eric Reed.

The View: De Aza, 22, looked like a seasoned pro all spring and while he may not be starter quality for a long period of time at this point of his career, he offers much more hitting upside than Reed and more of a spark than Sanchez. He’s got good speed on the base paths, carries a good glove, can hit for average, and even pinch hit; if all breaks well for De Aza, he could mirror Endy Chavez’s 2006 season and even have some back-end fantasy value for his speed.

Update: Twins name Carlos Silva the fifth starter over Matt Garza, who is optioned to AAA Rochester.

The View: As the Twins’ most coveted young, healthy arm, expect Garza’s stay in AAA to be a short one. Silva has been rocked all spring, doesn’t strikeout batters, and his best asset, his control, has faltered as of late. Between the low-upside Silva, the unreliable, waiting-to-implode Sidney Ponson, and the HR-allowing Ramon Ortiz, someone will get the boot early and Garza will likely be the go-to man.

Update: Royals name Zach Grienke their #3 starter behind Gil Meche and Odalis Perez and option Brian Bannister to AAA.

The View: Grienke is the perfect late-round sleeper pick at this point, seeing that this move has still attracted very little fanfare because it took place in Kansas City. It wasn’t very long ago that Grienke was considered arguably the best pitching prospect in all of baseball and had posted some promising numbers as a rookie on a very bad team. He since took a beating in 2005 and a tumultous 2006 kept him off the mound. If he can rediscover his talent and stick in the rotation, he has legitimate ace potential and some very intriguing late round value as of right now.

Update: The Cubs name Wade Miller their #5 starter while optioning Mark Prior to AAA and placing Kerry Wood on the 15-day DL.

The View: It’s nice to see Miller make his return to the big leagues and I think he should have some good #6 starter value on fantasy rosters, considering he had some pretty good success in the NL Central not too long ago and has a productive lineup behind him. Like Gagne, though, seeing Wood or Prior ever pitch again for a long period of time has become increasingly unlikely and for both, it’s a very tragic example of the great injury risks of pitchers. Both aren’t suffering any major injuries, but both still can’t seem to overcome their past injuries and will likely never be the same again. Storing Wood on the DL right now can’t hurt if you have the open spot, but I’d be sending Prior back to the waiver wire after the demotion.

AL West Team Fantasy Previews

Los Angeles Angels

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: Mike Napoli (.245/20/62)
1B: Casey Kotchman (.275/17/70)
2B: Howie Kendrick (.297/12/56)
SS: Orlando Cabrera (.276/10/68)
3B: Chone Figgins (.274/6/55)
RF: Vladimir Guerrero (.322/36/125)
CF: Gary Matthews, Jr. (.273/18/83)
LF: Garret Anderson (.278/20/85)
DH: Shea Hillenbrand (.292/16/79)

Top Offensive Producer: Vladimir Guerrero, RF
Top Offensive Dud: Mike Napoli, C
Most Undervalued Player: Orlando Cabrera, SS
Most Overvalued Player: Chone Figgins, 3B
Most Likely to Rebound: Casey Kotchman, 1B
Most Likely to Regress: Gary Matthews, Jr., CF

The Rest:
Howie Kendrick, 2B: Hit well in his ‘06 debut, top prospect with good contact hitting skills and ability to steal bases, sleeper at thin second base position
Garret Anderson, LF: Has strung together back-to-back 140+ game, 17 HR, 80+ RBI seasons, againg but still respectable AVG, good 4th OF
Shea Hillenbrand, DH: Struggled with AVG after move to NL, but posted career high in HRs, not enough walks or pop to start at 1B, but very solid back-up

The Bench:
Maicer Izturis, INF
Jose Molina, C
Tommy Murphy, OF
Robb Quinlan, 1B/3B

Overall Bench Rating: 5.5/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. John Lackey (15/3.70)
2. Jered Weaver (12/3.32)
3. Kelvim Escobar (10/3.53)
4. Ervin Santana (15/4.17)
5. Joe Saunders (10/4.68)

Top Starting Pitcher: John Lackey, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Kelvim Escobar, RHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Jered Weaver, RHSP

The Rest:
Ervin Santana, RHSP: Nasty stuff, good velocity, and youth indicate strikeout totals should improve and could give him #3 starter value in near future
Joe Saunders, LHSP: Lefty filler with good upside, but high ERA and struggles against righties could jeopardize rotation spot if Colon is healthy

The Bullpen:

Hector Carrasco
Dustin Moseley
Darren Oliver
Chris Resop
Scot Shields
Justin Speier

Top Middle Reliever: Scot Shields
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Chris Resop
Overall Bullpen Rating: 9.0/10

The Closer: Francisco Rodriguez
Prediction: 44 SV, 103 K, 2.10 ERA

Injuries:
Bartolo Colon, SP: Returning from rotator-cuff surgery, Colon has begun throwing 50 pitch sessions and has gotten his velocity back up to speed. He is still working on mixing his pitches, but should be ready for some minor league trials in April and coudld be back in the majors by May.
Chone Figgins, 3B: Figgins dislocated two fingers, which are currently in splints, placing him on the DL to start the season and will keep him out for upto six weeks. It could affect his ability to grip a bat, but it doesn’t appear as if it will affect his long term value this season, with his anticipated return tentatively scheduled before June 1st.
Juan Rivera, OF: Rivera, who broke his leg this winter, is still rehabbing slowly and his timetable is still unclear. He could return by the all-star break, but that is likely a best-case scenario. His flexibility, upside, and power make him worth stashing on the DL since a mid-season return is imminent with a good chunk of ABs to likely come in the process.
Jered Weaver, SP: Weaver will likely only miss his first two scheduled starts of the regular season due to bicep tenditis, but it will likely cause his pitch counts to be carefully monitored and could limit his workload and effectiveness early on this season.

Biggest Position Battle: First Base

Former #1 prospect Casey Kotchman will inherit the starting job, but at only age 23 and coming off a 2006 stint resulting in a .152 AVG, with the team likely to be mired in a pennant race his job is far from secure. Current DH and platoon 1B Shea Hillenbrand offers more experience and pop, but less defense, but could take over if need be. Also in the mix will be Robb Quinlan, who may be te best hitter of all three when he’s healthy and on his game, as seen by his .344 AVG in ‘04 and .321 in ‘06. An infield shift to move a hot prospect like Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick, or converted shortstop Brandon Wood isn’t entirely out of the question at this point either, nor is an out-of-house candidate like Todd Helton via trade.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Can the questionable supporting cast around Vladimir Guerrero overcome the struggles of 2006 (Napoli, Kotchman, Hillenbrand), the offseason issues (Matthews, Jr.), and the injury concerns (Figgins, G. Anderson, J. Rivera), and the inexperience (Kendrick, Izturis) and the other questions surrounding it to allow Vlad to be a top 5 fantasy producer and be productive enough to surpass the A’s for the division crown?

Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:

1. Erick Aybar, INF
2. Brandon Wood, SS
3. Dustin Moseley, SP

Oakland A’s

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: Jason Kendall (.282/3/48)
1B: Dan Johnson (.268/24/76)
2B: Mark Ellis (.262/14/57)
SS: Bobby Crosby (.253/21/70)
3B: Eric Chavez (.275/28/89)
RF: Nick Swisher (.260/32/93)
CF: Milton Bradley (.285/16/62)
LF: Shannon Stewart (.290/10/61)
DH: Mike Piazza (.277/26/84)

Top Offensive Producer: Nick Swisher, RF
Top Offensive Dud: Jason Kendall, C
Most Undervalued Player: Mike Piazza, DH
Most Overvalued Player: Bobby Crosby, SS
Most Likely to Rebound: Eric Chavez, 3B
Most Likely to Regress: N/A

The Rest:
Dan Johnson, 1B: Still shows good pop, but struggled mightily to start ‘06 and never rebounded. Current starter, but could be traded or platooned.
Mark Ellis, 2B: Below-average power and speed coupled with two sub-.250 seasons in last three full seasons and still some injury risk make him back-up option at best.
Milton Bradley, CF:Tools have regressed and potential tops out at 20/15 guy at best, still some off-field issues, but couldbe productive with consistent playing time
Shannon Stewart, LF: Returning from injury, still gives good AVG and potential for runs, but never had great power and speed may be sapped

The Bench:
Bobby Kielty, OF
Adam Melhuse, C
Donnie Murphy, INF
Marco Scutaro, INF

Overall Bench Rating: 4.5/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Rich Harden (12/3.41)
2. Dan Haren (14/4.06)
3. Esteban Loaiza (10/4.65)
4. Joe Blanton (13/4.43)
5. Brad Halsey (8/4.78)

Top Starting Pitcher: Rich Harden, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Dan Haren, RHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Esteban Loaiza, RHSP

The Rest:
Joe Blanton, RHSP: Young innings-eater with potential to be better, gave up way to many hits in ‘06 and got some lucky breaks to pick up 16 wins with below-average ERA/WHIP
Brad Halsey, LHSP: Token lefty without much endurance, low velocity and ceiling, but good mix of pitches. Low strikeout totals hinder any possible value.

The Bullpen:

Kiko Calero
Justin Duchscherer
Alan Embree
Chad Gaudin
Joe Kennedy
Jay Witasick

Top Middle Reliever: Justin Duchscherer
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Chad Gaudin
Overall Bullpen Rating: 7.0/10

The Closer: Huston Street
Projection: 35 SV, 72 K, 3.17 ERA

Injuries:
Bobby Crosby, SS: Crosby has been hindered by back problems much of spring, but it hasn’t limited his performance at the plate and he will open the season as the starter at SS. His ability to play back-to-back games and not be a liability in the field are still in question, which could hurt his ABs early on if forced into platoon.
Mark Kotsay, CF: Also suffering from back problems, Kotsay underwent surgery earlier this spring, which will likely put him out until July. He hasn’t been able to return to any form of conditioning yet and will have an approximate six-week program to complete before returning to the field.

Biggest Position Battle: #5 Starter

The A’s haven’t officially decided on Brad Halsey or Joe kennedy for the 5th starter spot, but neither starter-converted-to-reliever lefty appears to be ideal for the spot. Both good look in long relief and as effective pieces in the pen, but to open the season, the A’s need a lefty to fill the five hole in the rotation. The battle could go back and forth early on or could be decided by the acquisition of a veteran or promotion of a tempting young arm like Jason Windsor or Dan Meyer. This two-man race could expand quickly depending on Halsey’s (or Kennedy’s) rebuilt endurance and effectiveness upon returning to the rotation.

Biggest Fantasy Question:Can top offensive members, including Eric Chavez, Dan Johnson, and Shannon Stewart, have bounce back years and provide enough pop to absorb the loss of Frank Thomas, make up for the fact that the team doesn’t have a dominant go-to power hitter, and score enough runs to win another division crown?

Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:
1. Daric Barton, 1B
2. Travis Buck, OF
3. Jason Windsor, SP

Seattle Mariners

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: Kenji Johjima (.285/17/82)
1B: Richie Sexson (.267/32/106)
2B: Jose Lopez (.273/9/71)
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt (.285/11/53)
3B: Adrian Beltre (.270/25/85)
RF: Jose Guillen (.276/23/77)
CF: Ichiro Suzuki (.335/8/67)
LF: Raul Ibanez (.284/27/89)
DH: Jose Vidro (.280/9/52)

Top Offensive Producer: Ichiro Suzuki, CF
Top Offensive Dud: Jose Vidro, DH
Most Undervalued Player: Raul Ibanez, LF
Most Overvalued Player: Richie Sexson, 1B
Most Likely to Rebound: Jose Guillen, RF
Most Likely to Regress: Jose Lopez, 2B

The Rest:
Kenji Johjima, C: Solid debut season showed combination on modest pop and AVG, in his peak, likely to at east duplicate top-5 catcher performance of ‘06
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS: Underrated and undervalued, solid AVG, below-average but not to the degree of liability power, still developing with good speed
Adrian Beltre, 3B: Went from great to awful to slightly above average, he is what he is. High strikeouts, but 20+ HRs, mediocre AVG and handful of steals; back-end starter.

The Bench:
Willie Bloomquist, UTIL
Ben Broussard, 1B
Jeremy Reed, OF
Rene Rivera, C

Overall Bench Rating: 5.0/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Felix Hernandez (13/3.86)
2. Jarrod Washburn (11/4.10)
3. Miguel Batista (11/4.67)
4. Jeff Weaver (10/4.95)
5. Horacio Ramirez (7/4.51)

Top Starting Pitcher: Felix Hernandez, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Jarrod Washburn, LHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Jeff Weaver, RHSP

The Rest:
Miguel Batista, RHSP: Rubber arm with durability, but WHIP is too high, and is often bailed out by ability to induce double plays. Poor K/BB rates and aging.
Horacio Ramirez, LHSP: Oft-injured, but offers potential for a sub-4.00 ERA, despite relaitvely high WHIP and low K totals. Upside has diminished.

The Bullpen:

Jon Huber
Julio Mateo
Chris Reitsma
Arthur Rhodes
George Sherrill
Jake Woods

Top Middle Reliever: Arthur Rhodes
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Chris Reitsma
Overall Bullpen Rating: 5.5/10

The Closer: J.J. Putz
Projection: 32 SV, 94 K, 3.29 ERA

Injuries:
Mark Lowe, RP: Underwent arthoscopic surgery on his right elbow, there is currently no timetable for Lowe’s return. He would likely supplant a current reliever for a spot if he returns healthy by midseason, but he isn’t guaranteed to pitch at all in 2007 and his elbow will need ample time to heal in the process.

Biggest Position Battle: Setup Man

The Mariners’ bullpen as a whole is pretty solid, but they lack an elite arm to preserve saves for Putz. Effective utility pitcher and spot starter turned below-average closer, Chris Reitsma is in the mix but needs to return to form and has some slight injury concerns. The favorite is currenty non-roster invitee Arthur Rhodes, who returns to Seattle at age 37, after a mediocre showing in Philly. His velocity is down, but he still has good K rates and offers the most reliability. If his age starts to show, the Mariners could turn to numerous candidates, including successful lefty specialist George Sherrill, long reliever/spot-starter Jake Woods (in the Reistma mold), or Jon Huber, who posted a sub-2.00 ERA in his’06 debut in the bullpen.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Can King Felix finally reach his potential and develop into an ace and will the rest of the overpaid, average arms of the rotation provide enough veteran experience and eat enough innings to not overwork a middling bullpen?

Top 3 Prospect Heading into 2007:
1. Adam Jones, OF
2. Brandon Morrow, SP
3. Jeff Clement, C

Texas Rangers

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: Gerald Laird (.284/12/53)
1B: Mark Teixeira (.287/38/120)
2B: Ian Kinsler (.290/16/65)
SS: Michael Young (.320/17/91)
3B: Hank Blalock (.271/27/88)
RF: Nelson Cruz (.245/11/43)
CF: Kenny Lofton (.285/2/40)
LF: Brad Wilkerson (.247/21/63)
DH: Sammy Sosa (.255/30/74)

Top Offensive Producer: Mark Teixeira, 1B
Top Offensive Dud: Nelson Cruz, RF
Most Undervalued Player: Ian Kinsler, 2B
Most Overvalued Player: Brad Wilkerson, LF
Most Likely to Rebound: Sammy Sosa, DH
Most Likely to Regress: Kenny Lofton, CF

The Rest:
Gerald Laird, C: Finally gets chance to start, well-seasoned with good pop, but little speed and low potential for runs, not much upside, but could be a solid sleeper
Michael Young, SS: Arguably the most overlooked and undervalued hitter in baseball. Great AVG, good pop for his position, tripe-digit potential for runs and RBIs
Hank Blalock, 3B: Struggled mightily in 2006 and power appeared to be sapped. Still starter with good upside, but job security could be in question.

The Bench:
Marlon Byrd, OF
Frank Catalanotto, OF
Jerry Hairston, Jr., INF
Miguel Ojeda, C

Overall Bench Rating: 5.5/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Kevin Millwood (14/4.45)
2. Vincente Padilla (12/4.56)
3. Brandon McCarthy (10/4.05)
4. Robinson Tejada (10/4.89)
5. Jamey Wright (8/5.15)

Top Starting Pitcher: Kevin Millwood, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Brandon McCarthy, RHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Vincente Padilla, RHSP

The Rest:
Robinson Tejada, RHSP:Finished strong in 2006 with 2.32 post-all-star ERA. Not great source of K’s, high HR rate and WHIP, but could pick up good wins with average ERA
Jamey Wright, RHSP: Veteran filler who is league-average at best, and most often, below-average. No standout contributions and could struggle in hitters’ park

The Bullpen:

Joaquin Benoit
Scott Feldman
Kameron Loe
Ron Mahay
Akinori Otsuka
C.J. Wilson

Top Middle Reliever: Akinori Otsuka
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Scott Feldman
Overall Bullpen Rating: 6.0/10

The Closer: Eric Gagne
Projection: 29 SV, 81 K, 3.68 ERA

Injuries: N/A

Biggest Position Battle: Designated Hitter

Sammy Sosa appears to be the favorite for the DH spot, but considering he didn’t play at all in 2006, posted a .221 AVG in 2005, and still has some strides to make as a contact hitter, he will likely be platooned with Frank Catalanotto. Catalanotto complements well with good AVG and little pop, but could be called upon more as a 4th outfielder, emergency utility guy rather than a DH. Jason Botts, a 6′6” 250 lb., 26-year old established power hitter in the minors would appear to be a perfect, cheap solution to the job should either veteran struggle. If all else fails, back-up OF Marlon Byrd or recently called-up 3B prospect Adam Fox could get some at bats at DH, as they offer more less risk than Sosa, more speed than Botts, and more pop than Cat.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Can Eric Gagne stay healthy and return to form as one of the league’s most dominant closer and allow the bullpen to thrive with Akinori Otuska to thrive as the setup man, or will injuries strike again, forcing Otsuka to take over as closer and the putting the bullpen in a state of disarray?

Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:
1. Jason Botts, 1B
2. Edinson Volquez, SP
3. Eric Hurley, SP

Top 32 Middle Reliever Board, Vol. 1

Like the top 25 SB board, I’ll periodically rank the top 25 middle relievers in an attempt to help out those looking for a cheap contributor for some holds, strikeouts, or to lower ERA. Most standard leagues do not count holds as a stat which all but eliminates any value for any non-upper-echelon middle relievers, which seems somewhat hypocritical considering any closer, regardless of quality, will have value. Holds isn’t a perfect science, but either is saves, and holds is a good way to gauge value in pressure situations. For my Top 25 board, holds will factor into the rankings, as will ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, the potential for saves or to take over at closer at some point, and to a lesser degree, wins, appearances, HRs allowed, and innings pitched. Since I found so many good middle relievers bunched near the middle of the pack, I extended the initial rankings to the top 32 for this one. That said, here are my inaugural middle reliever rankings for 2007:

Note: For 2007, the first number represents (on a scale from 1-10) the likelihood that the closer and/or other relievers blocking the player from taking over as closer get injured, are ineffective, or traded. It also includes the likelihood of that player getting traded to become another team’s closer or assuming the role of closer due to exceptional performance – basically it is a scaled number to indicate the possibility of receiving save opportunities on a regular basis. The second number (also on a 1-10 scale) indicates how effective I believe the player would be if they inherited the role of closer.

Top 32 Middle Relievers

1. Joel Zumaya, Detroit Tigers
2006: 83.1 IP, 6 W, 1 SV, 30 HLD, 97 K, 1.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
2007: 7.0; 9.0

2. Scot Shields, Los Angeles Angels
2006: 87.2 IP, 7 W, 2 SV, 31 HLD, 84 K, 2.87 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
2007: 3.0; 8.0

3. Akinori Otsuka, Texas Rangers
2006: 59.2 IP, 2 W, 32 SV, 7 HLD, 47 K, 2.11 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
2007: 8.0; 8.0

4. Dan Wheeler, Houston Astros
2006: 71.1 IP, 3 W, 9 SV, 24 HLD, 68 K, 2.52 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
2007: 7.5; 7.5

5. Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers
2006: 76.1 IP, 4 W, 3 SV, 12 HLD, 97 K, 2.59 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
2007: 4.5; 8.0

6. Scott Linebrink, San Diego Padres
2006: 75.2 IP, 7 W, 2 SV, 36 HLD, 68 K, 3.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
2007: 5.5; 8.5

7. Mike Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves
2006: 54.0 IP, 3 W, 24 SV, 3 HLD, 64 K, 2.17 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
2007: 5.0; 7.5

8. Rafael Soriano, Atlanta Braves
2006: 60.0 IP, 1 W, 2 SV, 18 HLD, 65 K, 2.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
2007: 4.5; 8.0

9. Juan Rincon, Minnesota Twins
2006: 74.1 IP, 3 W, 1 SV, 26 HLD, 65 K, 2.91 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
2007: 2.5; 6.0

10. Aaron Heilman, New York Mets
2006: 87.0 IP, 4 W, 0 SV, 27 HLD, 73 K, 3.62 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
2007: 3.5; 5.5

11. Bobby Howry, Chicago Cubs
2006: 76.2 IP, 4 W, 5 SV, 21 HLD, 71 K, 3.17 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
2007: 4.5; 6.5

12. Justin Speier, Los Angeles Angels
2006: 51.1 IP, 2 W, 0 SV, 25 HLD, 55 K, 2.98 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
2007: 2.5; 6.0

13. Mike MacDougal, Chicago White Sox
2006: 29.0 IP, 1 W, 1 SV, 11 HLD, 21 K, 1.55 ERA, 0.93 WHIP
2007: 4.5; 6.5

14. Justin Duchscherer, Oakland A’s
2006: 55.2 IP, 2 W, 9 SV, 17 HLD, 51 K, 2.91 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
2007: 4.0; 7.0

15. Jorge Julio, Arizona Diamondbacks
2006: 66.0 IP, 2 W, 16 SV, 1 HLD, 88 K, 4.23 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
2007: 7.0; 5.5

16. Luis Vizcaino, New York Yankees
2006: 65.1 IP, 4 W, 0 SV, 25 HLD, 72 K, 3.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
2007: 2.5; 5.0

17. Fernando Rodney, Detroit Tigers
2006: 71.2 IP, 7 W, 7 SV, 18 HLD, 65 K, 3.52 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
2007: 4.5; 6.0

18. Kiko Calero, Oakland A’s
2006: 58.0 IP, 3 W, 2 SV, 23 HLD, 67 K, 3.41 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
2007: 3.0; 5.0

19. Pat Neshek, Minnesota Twins
2006: 37.0 IP, 4 W, 0 SV, 10 HLD, 53 K, 2.19 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
2007: 2.5; 6.0

20. Chad Qualls, Houston Astros
2006: 88.0 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 23 HLD, 56 K, 3.76 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
2007: 3.0; 5.5

21. Scott Eyre, Chicago Cubs
2006: 61.1 IP, 1 W, 0 SV, 18 HLD, 73 K, 3.38 ERA, 1.48 WHIP
2007: 3.0; 5.5

22. Scott Proctor, New York Yankees
2006: 102.1 IP, 6 W, 1 SV, 26 HLD, 89 K, 3.52 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
2007: 3.0; 4.5

23. Jon Rauch, Washington Nationals
2006: 91.1 IP, 4 W, 2 SV, 18 HLD, 86 K, 3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
2007: 5.0; 5.0

24. Matt Thornton, Chicago White Sox
2006: 54.0 IP, 5 W, 2 SV, 18 HLD, 49 K, 3.33 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
2007: 3.0; 4.5

25. Kyle Farnsworth, New York Yankees
2006: 66.0 IP, 3 W, 6 SV, 19 HLD, 75 K, 4.36 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
2007: 5.0; 5.5

26. Jason Frasor, Toronto Blue Jays
2006: 50.0 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 12 HLD, 51 K, 4.32 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
2007: 3.0; 6.0

27. Duaner Sanchez, New York Mets
2006: 55.1 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 14 HLD, 44 K, 2.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
2007: 3.5; 5.5

28. Cla Meredith, San Diego Padres
2006: 50.2 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 16 HLD, 37 K, 1.07 ERA, 0.71 WHIP
2007: 3.0; 4.0

29. Matt Capps, Pittsburgh Pirates
2006: 80.2 IP, 9 W, 1 SV, 13 HLD, 56 K, 3.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
2007: 6.5; 5.5

30. Danys Baez, Baltimore Orioles
2006: 59.2 IP, 5 W, 9 SV, 12 HLD, 39 K, 4.53 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
2007: 4.5; 5.5

31. Dennys Reyes, Minnesota Twins
2006: 50.2 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 16 HLD, 49 K, 0.89 ERA, 0.99 WHIP
2007: 2.5; 4.0

32. Roberto Hernandez, Cleveland Indians
2006: 63.2 IP, 0 W, 2 SV, 12 HLD, 48 K, 3.11 ERA, 1.46 WHIP
2007: 5.5; 5.5

Notes on results: Rankings were created prior to Jorge Julio getting traded to the Marlins and before it was announced that Duaner Sanchez would miss an additional four months due to hairline fracture in shoulder. Obviously, had these been taken into account, Jorge Julio would not appear on the list because he wouldn’t be considered a middle reliever, and Duaner Sanchez would fall significantly and well out of the top 32. The most likely replacements off the top of my head would be Taylor Tankersley (Marlins) and Rafael Betancourt (Indians).

Injury Report, 3/25/07

Bartolo Colon, Starting Pitcher, Los Angeles Angels
Injury: rotator cuff tear recovery
Timetable: expected to return to mound next week, will miss start of season
Outlook: Colon hasn’t pitched off a mound in a game situation since the end of July, when he tore his rotator cuff. His throwing shoulder has healed slowly, but he’s been throwing 50-60 pitch sessions and is building up his arm strength and endurance gradually. He will make his return in the minors in the near future, and assuming everything goes well, could be back in the rotation by May or June. Shoulder injuries are often harder to repair than elbow injuries, but Colon has spent adequate time rehabbing, and in a contract year, he could be nice late-round pick to stash on the DL until he’s ready to return.

Carl Crawford, Outfielder, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Injury: left groin tightness
Timetable: expected to return this week
Outlook: Crawford strained his groin right before Friday’s game and was a late-minute scratch. Reports stated that he only had mild tightness in his groin and could’ve likely played this weekend, but the Devil Rays have no interest in rushing him back and risking further straining for their star hitter. Crawford will likely return by Tuesday of this week and should show no ill effects on the basepaths.

Chone Figgins, Third Baseman, Los Angeles Angels
Injury: fractured index and middle fingers
Timetable: Will miss five to six weeks
Outlook: Unfortunately for Figgins’ owners, they’ll have to spend the first month of the season finding an altenate source of steals, but on the bright side, fractured fingers should heal quickly enough for him to start gripping a bat in a month and should have no adverse effect on his SB totals when he returns. His fingers are in splints now and we’ll have a better idea of a timetable when he is re-evaluated in three weeks. For now, the Angels will turn to Maicer Izturis in Figgins’ place, who could be an excellent source of steals himself, while posting a solid AVG sans power.

Carlos Guillen, Shortstop, Detroit Tigers
Injury: bruised shin
Timetable: day-to-day
Outlook: Guillen fouled a Tim Hudson fastball off his shin yesterday and was forced to leave the game, but the injury isn’t expected to have any lingering effects. He limped off the field, but was wearing a shin guard and spent the rest of the day in the clubhouse with an ice packed wrapped around the injury. The team states he’s day-to-day and while Guillen said he’ll miss today’s game against the Yankees, he should be back at 100% on Monday.

Jeremy Hermida, Outfielder, Florida Marlins
Injury: bone bruise on right knee
Timetable: expected to miss Opening Day but to return by April
Outlook: Like Guillen, Hermida’s injury was caused by a pitch fouled off of himself. Hermida fouled a pitch off his right knee on March 17th and has yet to return to action. Doctors state it is a very deep bone bruise on the knee and it has effected his stance, swing, and speed. Hermida had an ankle fracture on the same leg at the end of last season, but was back at full-strength prior to the bone bruise. He’s likely to start the season on the DL, but is expected to serve his 15 days and come back and start by April. In his place will likely be Joe Borchard, but his fantasy value is limited by a poor AVG.

Jon Lieber, Middle Reliever, Philadelphia Phillies
Injury: strained right oblique
Timetable: unknown
Outlook: After feeling some discomfort after a bullpen session on Friday, Lieber was diagnosed with a strained oblique and his timetable as of right now is up in the air. The team states he’ll be out indefinitely for the near future, but a less ambiguous time table should be made public by Monday. Lieber, whose value already took a huge hit when he was demoted to the bullpen, will now likely lose all value due to the abdominal strain. He shouldn’t miss too much time, but will likely miss the start of the season.

Joe Mauer, Catcher, Minnesota Twins
Injury: stress reaction in left fibula
Timetable: expected to be ready for Opening Day
Outlook: The Twins said they caught the “stress reaction” before it turned into a stress fracture, which could’ve resulted in a very significant loss of playing time. Mauer is still under scrutiny by team doctors and will likely be well rested for the remainder of the spring right up until Opening Day. Mauer originally complained about soreness in his left leg, but luckily an MRI revealed no serious or lingering damage. This could get him off to the slow start, but he’s still the #1 catcher in fantasy baseball and all signs point to no DL time.

Carlos Quentin, Outfielder, Arizona Diamondbacks
Injury: ailing left shoulder
Timetable: week-to-week, may miss Opening Day
Outlook: Quentin suffered a shoulder strain last Thursday, received a cortizone shot over the weekend and was told to rest it until a better diagnosis was determined in about a week. Quentin’s injury doesn’t sound overly serious and more or less just a temporary setback, but the team seems to be preparing Scott Hairston to start the season in RF in his place. He’s expected to undergo a four-to-five day strengthening program, at which point a better timetable will be set, but right now, it’s not of the question that he’ll start the season on the DL.

Freddy Sanchez, Second Baseman, Pittsburgh Pirates
Injury: sprained ligament in right knee
Timetable: week-to-week, may miss Opening Day
Outlook: Sanchez, who has been out since March 6th with the ligament sprain has shown no ill effects in the field or at the plate, but it has greatly hindered his ability on the basepaths. The team is debating whether or not to start Sanchez on the DL for the first week of the season or allow him to gradually rehab in minor league camp, but either way will likely miss Opening Day on April 2nd. He’s still day-to-day and his progress could change significantly by the end of the week, but even if he does start the season on the DL, he is expected to rejoin the lineup by mid-April.

Chien-Ming Wang, Starting Pitcher, New York Yankees
Injury: right hamstring strain
Timetable: Will start season on DL, expected to miss three to four weeks
Outlook: Wang, who was slated as the Yankees’ Opening Day starter, will start the season on the DL and is expected to miss most or all of the month of April after straining his hamstring while sprinting. GM Brian Cashman has said that Wang will not return until at least the end of April, but with only a grade 1 sprain, he should start throwing again in light session in a week or two and make a full recovery by the first week of May. He’ll be replaced by low-key prospect Jeff Karstens, who has been lights out this spring and could be a nice temporary fit.

Danks A Lot

Update: In a battle for the #5 spot in the White Sox rotation, which also including former super-prospect and recently acquired Gavin Floyd, knuckleballer Charlie Haeger, 2005 1st rounder Lance Broadway, and 6′8” 250 prospect Adam Russell, John Danks emerged victorious. Danks was acquired this offseason from the Rangers in the Brandon McCarthy deal and went 2-0 with a 4.32 ERA this spring. The lefthander, who was ranked the #1 prospect in the Rangers organization by Baseball America this offseason, went 9-9 with a 4.24 ERA between AA & AAA last season.

The View: Danks has progressed slower than expected. While he doesn’t look to be a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher anytime in the near future, he’s a good lefty with a strong arm, who can post very good strikeout rates. He was once expected to be an ace, but his ceiling tops out around a #2/#3 starter. He’s a wildcard in the five hole for the White Sox, who need an intriguing arm like this young lefty. The bar will be set low, especially considering he wasn’t overwhelming this spring, but he could be a nice strikeout contributor as a #5/#6 fantasy starter, and maybe even a little more valuable in AL-only leagues. As far as Gavin Floyd is concerned, after posting an 8.44 ERA this spring, his immediate future is still very murky. He’ll start the year in AAA and should Danks falter, he’d likely be next in line, but he’s not worth seriously scrutinizing at this stage.

Saturday Observations (3/24/07)

As a full-time college student with a full-time job, I rarely have time to spend the entire just watching baseball, but when I do, I like to take the time to watch as many games as possible, making as many fantasy observations as possible. With only a week to go in spring training, the games are heating up and each game can have a significant impact on the upcoming season. Here’s what I was able to make out of today’s games and box scores:

Cleveland 4, Atlanta 3

-Despite some injury concerns earlier this spring, Chipper Jones has kept his bat alive and well, and with a 2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI showing today bumped his average up to .324 this spring and should erase any immediate health concerns.

-Ryan Garko prolonged his good spring with a 2-4 performance at DH resulting in a HR and 3 RBI. He’s hitting on the same plane he did at the end of last season and he’s shown good consistency, which indicates he could carry this over to this season and have some key value as an up-and-coming power prospect.

-Tom Mastny got the start for the Indians, but only last two innings, allowing four base runners on three hits and one walk, resulting in two earned runs. He looked strong but is clearly hittable and doesn’t appear to be a good fit as a starter nor the makeup as closer; his best bet is in a mid-inning relief role this season.

Boston 1, Tampa Bay 1

-Mike Lowell continues his spring training struggles leaving four on base today, but managed to pick up a base hit in three at-bats as he nears .200 this spring. He hasn’t shown anything terribly wrong with him, so it’s not worth over-examining his minor struggle at this point.

-Edwin Jackson stole the show today as the former #1 prospects in the Dodgers organization struck out 6 in 4.2 IP, allowing five hits and on run in his start. He’s in the mix for a spot in the rotation and his 1.84 ERA this spring combined with his overwhelming potential may push him past the tentative starters.

Detroit 7, Houston 5

-Omar Infante’s battle to stick as the team’s primary utility infielder took a hit today, with arguably the worst performance of the day. An 0-5 day at the plate, resulting in 3 LOB was matched with a poor performance in the field and an error charged to his name. He’s still better than Neifi Perez or Ramon Santiago, but today hurt.

-Luke Scott put together another solid effort at the plate, going 2-4 with a double off Zach Miner and 2 RBI. He’s held his own this spring, and despite a valiant effort from guys like Jason Lane and Hunter Pence, Scott will keep his spot in the lineup. He looked like a well experienced hitter today and while a decrease in AVG/OPS is expected, he could still be a productive #3/4 OF.

Los Angeles (N) 4, Baltimore 2

-Randy Wolf continued his recovery from arm surgery and strengthened his bid today, by showing good arm strength and durability over the course of a 5.2 inning start. His 7 K’s are nice, but a good pitch count was most important. He stayed effective for the majority of his start and looked like he could be a viable #5 starter this season.

-Brian Roberts went 0-3 today, but showed his speed can take over when his bat struggles. He stole a base and got into scoring position before adding a run. He’s a flashy player who can generate runs and even though he didn’t record a hit today, he’s got a good bat to go with his wheels.

Florida 6, New York (N) 5

-Alejandro De Aza has been a brilliant surprise this spring playing a sharp centerfield and hitting a near .400 all spring while showing good speed on the base paths. He’ll start in the minors, but after picking up a key pinch hit single in the 8th, he showing he could be a nice asset off the bench, should he get off to a hot start in AAA.

-John Maine has more pressure on him to duplicate his 2006 performance than any other pitcher. The problem is, statistically, he was one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball last season, didn’t post good K rates, gave up a lot of hits and had a much-better-than-average BABIP success. Today’s performance exemplifies the problems he still needs to work on – as he allowed 12 hits in 5.2 IP, but maintained a 3.07 for the spring.

Cincinnati 7, Philadelphia 0

-Bronson Arroyo threw six solid innings of shutout baseball against one of the more potent lineups in baseball, striking out six and walking only one. His 1.53 ERA this spring is top-notch and after today’s performance, he could be a good bet to get off to a strong start and perhaps match last year’s unexpected production.

-The Phillies struggled as a whole offensively today, recording only six hits, but Shane Victorino picked up one of those, going 1-4, lowering his spring AVG to .371. His best asset is his speed, but as the expected starter in RF to start the season, if he can hit half as well, he could be a tempting sleeper.

Pittsburgh 13, Minnesota 7

-6′5” 245 26-year old power-hitting Brad Eldred led the way for an explosive offensive onslaught, going 3-4 with 2 runs scored, 1 HR, and 3 RBI. He crushed a homer off Carlos Silva and brought his spring training average up to .347. He hit 40 HRs between MLB, AAA, and AA in 2005, so he’s got some monster power and potential.

-Carlos Silva is still in line for a rotation spot, but was annihilated to the tune of 11 hits and 9 earned runs in 3.1 innings against a light-hitting lineup. He only struck out two in the process and while his control looked good, he was entirely hittable and overmatched. His spring ERA: 11.02, but he’s still slated as the #3 starter.

St. Louis 4, Washington 2

-With a spot open in the OF with due to mounting injuries, Skip Schumaker put together a good line, recording three singles in five at-bats and scoring a run. He showed some good contact hitting and is an adequate fielder, which could put him in the mix for a roster spot.

-Christian Guzman who missed all of last season after one of the worst offensive seasons in major league history in 2005, Guzman has rebounded well this spring, and after going 2-3 with an RBI today, he bumped his AVG up to .438. He’s still rusty, but he’s gradually returning to form with each successful at bat.

Baltimore 2, New York (N) 1

-Hayden Penn may have had a good outing on the surface, lasting four innings and not allowing a run, but playing against the majority of Mets without much on the line, combined with 4 BB and 0 K, and it’s average at best. He did only allow one hit and is a touted prospect, so this could help his bid for a spot in the rotation.

-Shawn Green prolonged his spring struggles, going 0-2, including grounding into a double play. Lastings Milledge posted his best game of the spring against the Marlins today and with Green hitting a measley .140, there could be a position battle looming.

New York (A) 4, Toronto 4

-Hideki Matsui continues his climb back up the OF rankings this spring, going 2-3 today with an RBI today. His wrists look fine and his bat speed is still remarkable, throw in the fact that he was hitting pitches in all areas of the strike zone, and there’s no need to worry about Matsui’s ability to produce this season.

-Victor Zambrano may have lost a touch off his fastball, as was evident today, but he’s added some movement on his pitches and his command looked impressive today. Four solid innings, with 3 Ks and 2 BBs against a very good lineup put him way ahead of schedule and keep him in the mix for a rotation spot.

San Diego 7, Arizona 6

-Terrmel Sledge continues to further secure the LF job, as he hit his 6th HR of the spring off Doug Slaten in the sixth inning. Throw in a good showing in the field, drawing a walk, and some serious power today and thus far in spring training, and he may be a quality deep sleeper pick, especially in NL-only leagues.

-I already gushed about Micah Owings’ potential in the NRI report, but today put an exclamation point of his bid for the fifth starter, as he went 4 innings, not allowing a run and only two base runners. He lowered his ERA to 1.93 for the spring and showed some quality stuff today.

Arizona 5, Chicago (A) 4

-Scott Hairston looks to seize a timely opportunity and open as the starter in RF and looked worth of the job today, going 2-4 with a triple and an RBI. He’s got good pop, can handle all OF spots, and is hitting .391 this spring. He’s still got upside and more hitting like this will secure him some early season ABs.

-Jon Garland, who was heavily-reliant on a good offense behind him to pick up wins over the last two years, could be exposed as a below-average #3 starter, based on his spring. His ERA ballooned to 8.66 with a 5.2 inning performance in which he alowed 11 hits, walked two, and gave up four earned and didn’t have any show any above-average pitches today.

Chicago (N) 3, San Francisco 2

-Wade Miller may have all but locked up the #5 spot today, with a 5 inning, no-run performance today. He struck out five in as many innings, didn’t allow a single free pass, and allowed only three hits. Miller has battled injury in the recent past, but not long ago he was a solid NL Central starter, capable of double-digit wins – today showed the potential to return to form.

-Mark Sweeney is in position for a 4th OF/pinch-hitter job this season and showed why today, with a pinch-hit double in the 6th and adding a HR off Angel Guzman in the 8th. He’s only hitting .194 on the spring, but he’s a good veteran presence and is valued for his pinch hitting, as seen today.

Colorado 11, Los Angeles (A) 1

-John Mabry is a veteran jack-of-all-trades with good experience and a modest bat, but will be a longshot to crack the Rockies’ MLB roster in any form. He made a good showing today with a double, triple, and a run scored in three at-bats along with a solid performance at first base, but it won’t likely be enough to stick. Mabry could get a call-up, but even if he does, his value is at a minimal.

-Chris Resop, a servicable young, relief arm acquired from the Marlins took a beating today, going 1.2 innings and allowing seven hits, a walk, four earned runs, and a homer. He’s still got a bright future, but may have cost himself a spot in a loaded bullpen come Opening Day.

Seattle 5, Kansas City 4

-Chris Reitsma may have earned the save today, but he still looked shaky, as he allowed two hits and a run in his ninth inning appearance. He’s better than last season’s numbers, but he still shows an inability to cope with pressure, he might struggle as a set-up man as he’s expected to be, but could develop into a good mid-relief option should he be shifted.

-Odalis Perez has been much maligned over the last year and a half, and while today’s performance wasn’t anything to write home about, 1 ER in 5 innings is still a solid outing. He allowed 6 hits and 3 walks, but showed good stuff and an ability to get off jams when needed.

Oakland 5, Texas 2

-Nick Swisher’s biggest flaw last season was his propensity for striking out and a poor AVG, but his batting eye has looked much improved this spring, and he continued that trend today, going 2-3 with two doubles. He did strike out once for good measure, but he’s still hitting .320 this March. His AVg is still a concern, but an improvement seems imminent.

-Mike Wood pitched the final three innings for the Rangers and showed some good set-up man, spot-closer potential, should Akinori Otsuka be dealt, after allowing two hits and striking out three today. He picked up some late-inning opportunities in Kansas City and has a good make-up to thrive if healthy, as seen by his miniscule 1.69 ERA this spring.

San Diego 5, Milwaukee 2

-Josh Bard will be fighting off the fluke tag every step of the way this season, but with the starting job secured, he’s still hitting .353 this spring, thanks in part to solid outings like today. Bard added to his spring resume with a 1-3 showing and 2 RBI.

-J.J. Hardy still has the faith of the organization despite missing most of 2006 with injury and struggling at the playe in 2005. He’s still developing his stroke and could be one of the most improved hitters this year, and his spring training performances are enhancing that notion. He’s locked in as the starting SS, but today’s 2-3 showing with a solo shot best shows his improved pop this spring.

Non-Roster Invitee Report: American League

Last week I posted the National League’s most intriguing NRIs with ratings for potential playing time and fantasy impact upon receiving said playing time. This weekend I’ll polish off the NRI reports with some very intriguing AL NRIs, some of which are actually battling for starting jobs and rotation spots. Without further adieu:

Baltimore Orioles

1) J.R. House, C (6.5/5.0)
2) Jon Knott, 1B/OF (5.0/4.5)
3) Rob Bell, SP (5.5/3.5)
4) Terry Tiffee, 3B (4.0/3.5)
5) Roger Cedeno, OF (4.0/3.0)
6) Brandon Sing (3.0/3.5)

A two-star athlete and a former prospect with plus-power and a cannon for an arm at catcher, J.R. House, looks to finally meet his potential as a 27-year old, with a long history of injury, but still very good upside, as indicated by his .412 AVG in AAA last year. Rob Bell was a servicable fifth starter from 2000-04, and could stick on a bad club with good run support if given another opportunity. He’s struggled at all levels as of late, but has good control and durability. Terry Tiffee was considered an above-average prospect for the Twins and showed some pop in a few cups of coffee; he’s low-upside, but he is a cheap, young corner infield backup option.

Boston Red Sox

1) Runelvys Hernandez, SP (5.5/5.5)
2) Adam Bernero, SP (6.5/4.0)
3) Joe McEwing, UTIL (5.0/3.5)
4) Bryan Corey, RP (5.0/3.0)
5) Alex Ochoa, OF (3.5/2.5)
6) Kevin Cash, C (3.0/2.0)

Runelvys Hernandez was never a top prospect and has likely been living off a very impressive ML debut and a cool name, but despite some conditioning issues, arm-related injuries, and terribly-low strikeout totals, he could find a niche. The Red Sox could use a fifth starter to eat innings and Runelvys could be a cheap, experienced option. Joe McEwing, a super utility guy/25th man for years has bounced around the minors, but still has enough of a bat to stick on a club who could use some help up the middle of the infield. Alex Ochoa, who hasn’t played in the majors since 2002, hit well in Japan, and hopes to revive his career as a 5th outfielder at age 35.

Chicago White Sox

1) Lance Broadway, SP (5.5/6.5)
2) John Danks, SP (5.0/6.0)
3) Eduardo Perez, 1B/OF (5.5/4.5)
4) Wiki Gonzalez, C (4.0/3.5)
5) Junior Spivey, 2B (4.0/3.0)
6) Vladimir Nunez, RP (3.0/2.5)

Gavin Floyd is penciled in as the fifth starter, but Lance Broadway and John Danks will give him a run for his money. Broadway dominated AA last season, but still needs some refinement. Danks, a tad older and more experienced, has been mediocre in higher levels of the minors, but has more control and is less risky than Floyd, and could have an instant impact as a back-end starter. Eduardo Perez is a good veteran presence, and although he’s a little shaky in the field, he can fill in at any corner position and still has some pop in his bat. Vladimir Nunez, the Marlins’ closer in 2002, has since imploded and has battled back through the minors, and is still young enough to get another shot.

Cleveland Indians

1) Adam Miller, SP (5.5/8.5)
2) Keith Ginter, 2B (5.5/4.5)
3) Cliff Politte, RP (6.0/4.0)
4) Jason Stanford, SP (5.0/3.5)
5) Luis Rivas, 2B (3.5/3.0)
6) Javi Herrera, C (3.0/2.5)

Adam Miller, the Indians #1 prospect, who has dominated through the minors and was perfect in spring training, not allowing a single run. He’s got great upside and a very good repetoire of pitches, he’s ML ready, but he’ll start in AAA and will wait in the wings for an opening in the rotation. Keith Ginter was considered a viable starter at 2B after a 19-60-.262 campaign in ‘04, but struggled mightily in ‘05, and rebuilt his skills in the minors in ‘06.  Cliff Politte, a former closer, put up a remarkable 2005 campaign, but imploded in 2006 before getting cut by the White Sox. With a weak bullpen that could use an effective veteran arm, if Politte does well in AAA, he should get a call-up.
Detroit Tigers

1) Craig Dingman, RP (6.5/4.0)
2) Joey Eischen, RP (5.5/4.0)
3) Brandon Watson, OF (4.5/3.5)
4) David Espinosa,SS/OF (4.0/4.0)
5) Felix Heredia, RP (4.5/3.0)
6) Timo Perez, OF (4.0/3.0)
7) Dane Sardinha, C (3.0/2.5)

Craig Dingman was a former Yankees prospect who bounced around as a long reliever in the minors and even Mexico, but finally put it together in 2005 with a 3.66 ERA in 34 relief appearance before missing all of 2006, but is expected to be healthy this season. With a potential opening for a mop-up role in the pen, besides Dingman, 37-year old Joey Eischen, who pitched in the majors in mid-90’s, before returning in 2001, and posted four straight sub-4.00 ERA seasons before arm injuries and ineffectiveness resulted in a woeful 2006, could be in the mix, as well. David Espinosa is a former 1st round pick by the Reds, who has converted from shortstop to outfield and looked like a solid rule V draft pick, but stuck with the Tigers and could be in the mix for a 5th outfield spot, along with the speedy, light-hitting Brandon Watson.

Kansas City Royals

1) Brandon Duckworth, SP (6.0/4.5)
2) Zach Day, SP (5.5/4.5)
3) Alex S. Gonzalez, SS (6.0/4.0)
4) Graham Koonce, 1B (4.5/4.5)
5) Jorge Padilla, OF (4.5/4.0)
6) Jason Standridge, RP (5.0/3.5)
7) Wayne Franklin, RP (4.5/3.0)
8) Dewon Brazelton, SP (4.0/3.0)
9) Adam Greenberg, OF (3.0/2.5)

Like the Nationals in the NL, the arguably-worst team in the league, the Royals have the deepest, most-intriguing set of NRIs. Brandon Duckworth, now 31, has been a servicable 5th starter, who could be a below-average innings-filler and pitch in with some long relief. With a weak bullpen, he could have some value as a spot-starter, long-reliever and could even crack the rotation. Zach Day, a former top prospect, had some good years as a finesse pitcher before some arm injuries and Coors Field took a toll on him, but he’s young and talented enough to rebound. Graham Koonce is an all-power, low-AVG, high-K minor league veteran masher, who could have a solid Bucky Jacobsen-esque stint if the Royals take a flier for a cheap DH option. Dewon Brazelton has been given ample opportunities but has pitched poorly in every aspect after being the #3 overall pick in 2001, and his only hope now may be as a middle reliever.

Los Angeles Angels

1) Matt Wilhite, RP (5.0/4.5)
2) Sean Rodriguez, SS (4.0/6.0)
3) Curtis Pride, OF (6.0/3.0)
4) Chris Bootcheck, RP (4.0/3.0)
5) Nathan Haynes, OF (3.5/3.0)

Matt Wilhite, who was slightly too old to have great upside, put up some very solid numbers in AAA as a 25-year old sidearmer who can pitch multiple innings in late relief, but his value comes from his pick-off move that has resulted in over 30 pick offs at second base. He’s a very intriguing arm, who could find a spot in the pen, and would have overwhelming value in a zany league with pickoffs as a stat. Sean Rodriguez is a very good hitting shortstop prospect, but will be blocked off by Brandon Wood and Orlando Cabrera, should he be able to play OF or 3B, he could get called up earlier than expected. Curtis Pride, the only active deaf major leaguer, has stuck around baseball for almost 20 years and has continually gotten cups of coffee late in the season as a back-up OF.

Minnesota Twins

1) Ken Harvey, 1B/DH (5.0/4.5)
2) Randy Choate, RP (5.5/3.5)
3) Sidney Ponson, SP (5.0/3.5)
4) Matt LeCroy, 1B/C (4.5/3.5)
5) Glenn Williams, 3B (4.0/4.0)
6) Josh Rabe, OF (4.0/3.5)
7) Mike Venafro, RP (3.5/3.0)

Ken Harvey, a 2004 Al-star, is a stocky 6′2” 240 masher, in the mold of the aforementioned Graham Koonce, who could have value as a cheap DH option. Unlike Koonce, he can draw a walk and even post a moderate average, but with below average speed and health issues, he has some risks. Sidney Ponson has bounced around, getting rocked as a starter for various teams, but the Twins are still willing to give him a shot. He’s now 30 years old, poorly conditioned and gives up too many hits, but is the only option with prior fantasy value and still a good fastball; with the lack of arms in the rotation, getting a call up would not be a surprise. Matt LeCroy has some pop and is a former Twin, but he’s a liability at catcher defensively; Glenn Williams has hit well in the minors, and the former undrafted Australian could be a cheap, effective left-side infield utility hitter with modest pop.

New York Yankees

1) Philip Hughes, SP (4.5/8.0)
2) Ron Villone, RP (5.5/4.0)
3) Ben Davis, C (4.5/4.0)
4) Todd Pratt, C (4.5/4.0)
5) Chris Basak, INF (4.0/3.5)
6) Matt DeSalvo, SP (3.5/3.0)
7) Raul Chavez, C (3.5/3.0)
8) Ben Kozlowski, SP (3.0/2.5)

Philip Hughes is arguably the top-rated pitching prospect in all of baseball, with phenomenal size and velocity, good strikeout rates, and good performances in the minors; with injuries striking the rotation and the intrigue surrounding him, he could get a call-up by midseason. Ron Villone is still a capable long-reliever, mop-up man, but may be passed up by younger options. Todd Pratt, a veteran with good pop and an experienced back-up, Ben Davis, a former top prospect whose hitting has gradually deteriorated, and Raul Chavez, a low-upside 33-year old with a modest bat and good defense, could all be in the mix for a back-up catcher job who could get a decent number of at-bats.

Oakland A’s

1) Daric Barton, 1B (5.5/7.0)
2) Erasmo Ramirez, RP (5.0/4.0)
3) John Baker, C (4.5/4.0)
4) Hiram Bocachica, OF (4.5/3.5)
5) Ricky Ledee, OF (4.5/3.0)
6) Erubiel Durazo, 1B/DH (4.0/3.5)
7) Charles Thomas, OF (4.0/3.0)
8) Kazuhito Tadano, RP (3.5/3.0)
9) Lou Merloni, UTIL (4.0/2.5)

Daric Barton is recovering from injury and didn’t look great in a short stint in AAA last season, but he’s got great upside, plenty of offensive tools, a good eye, and nice power. He’ll need some time in the minors, but could develop quickly and take over at 1B by season’s end. John Baker has revived his bat at AAA, offers good average with some pop, and with Jason Kendall a FA at the end of the season,could get some time in as he auditions for a starting job next season. Hiram Bocachica, a dominant AAA hitter but useless in the majors, along with career 4th outfielder Ricky Ledee (who was dreadful last season, but still useful as a pinch-hitter), and Charles Thomas, who despite being solely remembered for a hot streak in 2004, is still hitting well in AAA, could all see time with a thin outfield corps.

Seattle Mariners

1) Arthur Rhodes, RP (6.0/4.0)
2) Justin Lehr, RP (4.5/4.0)
3) Sean Burroughs, 3B (4.0/3.5)
4) Jaime Cerda, RP (4.5/3.0)
5) Jesse Foppert, SP (3.5/4.5)
6) Gookie Dawkins, INF (4.0/3.0)
7) Aaron Small, RP (4.0/3.0)
8) Rey Ordonez, SS (2.5/2.0)

Arthur Rhodes, now 37, struggled as a set-up man in Philly last season, but returns to Seattle, where he was an elite midle reliever with some fantasy value in the late 90’s/early 00’s. He still averaged over 1 K/IP last season, and with a shortage of experience in the pen, he could return as the team’s set-up man this season. Justin Lehr, a former AAA closer with good velocity, as well as former Met relief prospect and servicable Quadruple-A’er arm, Jaime Cerda, could also stick in the pen. Sean Burroughs, a top 10 pick in 1998, has never had enough power or speed to make it at 3B, but as a .280 lifetime hitter, if he can handle a middle infield spot, he could revive his career as a utility guy.

Tampa Bay Devilrays

1) Gary Glover, SP
2) Carlos Pena, 1B
3) Steve Andrade, RP
4) Hee Seop Choi, 1B/OF
5) Shinji Mori, RP
6) Dustan Mohr, OF
7) Jason Grabowski, UTIL
8) Yamid Haad, C

Gary Glover is a perfect utility pitcher, who can spot-starter, handle long relief, and even close out games in a pinch if needed. With a jumbled rotation and a complete lack of a bullpen, he could certainly find a niche on this staff. He’s had a strong spring, has good experience, and a decent mix of pitches. With Ty Wigginton, the only viable first baseman, two former top power prospects, Carlos Pena and Hee Seop Choi could work their way onto the roster. Both have good pop, good minor league track records, but don’t hit for average and strike out way too often. Shinji Mori was an average reliever in Japan, but posted very good K rates, and despite coming off arm injury and never pitching professionally in America yet, he’s could be a sleeper closer candidate if he rehabs well.

Texas Rangers

1) Sammy Sosa, OF (7.5/5.5)
2) Jamey Wright, SP (6.5/5.0)
3) Mike Wood, RP (5.0/4.5)
4) Jerry Hairston, Jr., UTIL (4.5/4.5)
5) Willie Eyre, RP (4.5/3.5)
6) Bruce Chen, SP (4.0/3.5)
7) Franklyn German, RP (4.0/3.5)
8) Matt Kata, 2B (3.5/3.0)
9) Jared Sandberg, 3B (3.0/3.0)
10) Desi Relaford, INF (2.5/2.5)

Everyone knows Sammy Sosa’s story, as he returns to the majors for the first time since hitting 14 HRs and .221 for the Orioles in 2005. He’s lit up pitching with 4 HRs this spring and looks to be in line for the DH job on a loaded lineup in a hitter’s park. He’s pushing for 600 career HRs, and if he stays healthy, he should have enough pop to reach it, but his AVG could be a liability. Veteran below-average, inning eaters, Bruce Chen and Jamey Wright are both serious contenders for the #5 spot, but both have very limited value. A spot in the bullpen is also open and former top prospect Mike Wood, who finally put it together before injuries struck, is a good long relief option with some upside, but could have to fend off Willie Eyre (Scott’s younger brother), who spent all of last season as a servicable mop-up man in the best bullpen in baseball for the Twins last season.

Toronto Blue Jays

1) Victor Zambrano, SP (7.0/5.5)
2) Matt Stairs, OF (6.0/4.0)
3) Kevin Barker, 1B (4.5/4.0)
4) John-Ford Griffin, OF (4.0/4.0)
5) Jeremi Gonzalez, RP (4.5/3.5)
6) Sal Fasano, C (4.5/3.5)
7) Rainer Olmedo, INF (4.0/3.0)
8) Jeff Duncan, OF (3.0/3.0)
9) Jo Matumoto, RP (3.0/3.0)

Victor Zambrano, the Devil Rays former ace and Mets middle-rotation, wild-armed starter, is coming off Tommy John surgery, but has rehabbed rapidly and could be in the rotation come Opening Day. His velocity is still down, but he’s added some movement, worked on his command, is still young and doesn’t have much mileage, and could be a very enticing sleeper. Matt Stairs is a 37-year old DH/4th OF option, who still showed good pop and veteran skills, but doesn’t drive or score runs and his average as well as his playing time are liabilities, and may not start the season in the majors for the first time in nearly a decade. Kevin Barker, a career minor league masher, is a tempting 1B back-up option, but he has a below-average glove, strikes out too often, and has struggled in his ML stints. Jo Matumoto is a 36-year old reliever and the first ever Brazilian pitcher in baseball, but even as an unknown, unfamiliarized commodity, he doesn’t have much velocity and is far too old to be expected to be anything more than a feel-good story.

What’s the Worst/Best that Could Happen? Vol. 1

One way to help gauge a player’s fantasy value is to explore his potential and see where his extremes lie. Determining and comparing a player’s ceiling to his basement will help establish a reasonable scope of risks and rewards and give you an idea what to look forward to in the upcoming season. Since the best and worst case scenarios are more than likely absolute extremes, creating a middle ground by which to judge an average, expected performance is not a bad idea. Fantasy baseball isn’t an exact science and obviously either is this. What’s the Worst/Best that Could Happen? will take historically good and bad seasons which seem relevant to the player discussed as potential extremes and attempt to fabricate a reasonable middle ground (averaging out the two seasons) as a safe-side projection.

One Note: Each worst case, best case, and average scenario are based strictly on performance and do not take into account injury, because obviously, the worst case scenario for any player is missing the entire season on the DL – listing that for every player would be quite boring.

For this particular version, I’m going to take one player from each division, with an even split amongst hitters and pitchers.

National League West:
Will Taveras, Outfielder, Colorado Rockies
2006: 83 R, 1 HR, 30 RBI, 33 SB, .278

What’s the Worst that Could Happen?
Pat Listach, Milwaukee Brewers, 1993
50 R, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 18 SB, .244

What’s the Best that Could Happen?
Juan Pierre, Colorado Rockies, 2001
108 R, 2 HR, 55 RBI, 46 SB, .327

Calculated Middle Ground:
79 R, 3 HR, 43 RBI, 32 SB, .286

Pat Listach’s 1992 Rookie of the Year season is eerily similar to Willy Taveras’ 2004 Rookie of the Year campaign, in which they both debatedly beat out players who had much better immediate futures in Kenny Lofton and Ryan Howard, respectively. Taveras hit well enough in 2005 to stave off the fluke tag for the time being and appears to be for real, but as did Listach after his 54 SB rookie campaign. Juan Pierre, with a very similar, but superior, skill set, put up a much better average and SB totals than we could reasonably expect from Taveras, but who knows how great of an effect Coors can have. The middle ground nails Taveras’ career AVG and SB rates, though it exaggerates his power, but again, we have to factor in a move to Coors.

National League Central:
Jason Jennings, Starting Pitcher, Houston Astros
2006: 9-13, 212 IP, 142 K, 3.78 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

What’s the Worst that Could Happen?
Jamey Wright, Milwaukee Brewers/St. Louis Cardinals, 2002
7-13, 129.1 IP, 77 K, 5.30 ERA, 1.59 WHIP

What’s the Best that Could Happen?
Darryl Kile, St. Louis Cardinals, 2000
20-9, 232.1 IP, 192 K, 3.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Calculated Middle Ground:
14-11, 180 IP, 135 K, 4.60 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

When Jamey Wright left Coors, he was exposed as a below-average pitcher who could no longer use a poor park factor as an excuse. Jennings put up better numbers than Wright during his tenure at Coors, but with some arm problems, a low strikeout rate, and a middling ERA, he may end up topping out as an average pitcher at best (see middle ground projection). Darryl Kile was an established arm prior to the move to Coors, and always had average strikeout rates, but upon relocating to the NL Central put up some very good numbers and won 20 games – which is something that Jennings, a former ROY winner, has the potential to match on a good team.

National League East:
Wes Helms, Third Baseman, Philadelphia Phillies
2006: 30 R, 10 HR, 47 RBI, 0 SB, .329

What’s the Worst that Could Happen?
Abraham Nunez, Philadelphia Phillies, 2006
42 R, 2 HR, 32 RBI, 1 SB, .211

What’s the Best that Could Happen?
Morgan Ensberg, Houston Astros, 2003
69 R, 25 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB, .290

Calculated Middle Ground:
56 R, 14 HR, 46 RBI, 4 SB, .251

The Phillies took a gamble on Abraham Nunez last season as their starting third baseman after he parlayed a couple of months of good, well-over-his-head hitting into a nice size contract and a starting job. Needless to say he didn’t match his 2005 numbers, but also returned to his Quadruple-A’er status, hitting well below even the lowest expectations. Morgan Ensberg, who proved he was worthy of his debut stint as a starter, turned in a big year in 2003 in his first full season as a starter. You would think a best-case scenario would call for more than 60 RBIs, but Helms has only topped that number once. The best case scenario would be Helms extrapolating last year’s averages into a full-season workload, but this is a much reasonable best-case scenario based on Helms’ prior trials as a starter. The middle ground should call for more pop, but it took a tremendous hit due to Nunez’ natural lack of power and just how extraordinarily terrible he was in 2006, and the rest looks pretty good.

American League West:
J.J. Putz, Closer, Seattle Mariners
2006: 4-1, 36 SV, 104 K, 2.30 ERA, 0.92 WHIP

What’s the Worst that Could Happen?
Jorge Julio, Baltimore Orioles, 2003
0-7, 36 SV, 52 K, 4.38 ERA, 1.52 WHIP

What’s the Best that Could Happen?
Brad Lidge, Houston Astros, 2005
4-4, 42 SV, 103 K, 2.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

Calculated Middle Ground:
2-5, 39 SV, 78 K, 3.34 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Putz emerged from middle-of-the-pack, middle-relief obscurity and inherited a closer role that suited his profile perfectly and allowed to him showcase his nasty stuff, while striking out batters at a well-above-league-average, and racking up saves. Jorge Julio saved 25 games in his first season as closer after a few stints in middle relief and put tremendous peripherals, and while he increased his save totals, his peripherals came back down to earth, along with his strikeout rate and an ugly 0-7 record. Putz was way better than Julio in his first stint as closer, as good as Julio was, and the Lidge comparisons seem fair considering they are both big, strong powerarms with great strikeout rates. People may have forgotten how good Lidge was in his second year as closer in 2005, so Putz will have his work cut out for him. A full run spike, but still very good numbers as the middle ground suggests seems likely on a bad team with hitters who will now be more familiar the second time around.

American League Central:
Jermaine Dye, Outfielder, Chicago White Sox
2006: 103 R, 44 HR, 120 RBI, 7 SB, .315

What’s the Worst that Could Happen?
Moises Alou, Chicago Cubs, 2002
50 R, 15 HR, 61 RBI, 8 SB, .275

What’s the Best that Could Happen?
Juan Gonzalez, Texas Rangers, 1993
105 R, 46 HR, 118 RBI, 4 SB, .310

Calculated Middle Ground:
78 R, 31 HR, 90 RBI, 6 SB, .292

Moises Alou had put together a string of great seasons after an above-average numbers earlier in his career, but it all toppled down temporarily after he lost his power stroke and with it went his AVG and runs scored. Alou has since rebounded but 2002 marred his future value as it would do to Dye, who is entering his walk year. Gonzalez’ 1993 season was his break-out year and while his numbers in the late nineties may better reflect the situation, his numbers were either way too good or not good enough to represent a best-case scenario. Ideally, Dye should duplicate his 2006 season, but Gonzo’s ‘93 numbers would be slightly better. The middle ground is a nice representation of Dye’s potential if he’s healthy, and a very good foundation for fantasy owners to shoot for.

American League East:
Kei Igawa, Starting Pitcher, New York Yankees
2006: N/A

What’s the Worst that Could Happen?
Masato Yoshii, Colorado Rockies, 2000
6-15, 167.1 IP, 88 K, 5.86 ERA, 1.52 WHIP

What’s the Best that Could Happen?
Hideo Nomo, Los Angeles Dodgers, 1995
13-6, 191.1 IP, 236 K, 2.54 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Calculated Middle Ground:
10-11, 179.1 IP, 162 K, 4.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

First off, the best-case/worst-case scenarios should are not simply because they are Asian pitchers but because their situations as baseball veterans in another league with little MLB experience match up well with Igawa’s 2006 situation. Yoshii did well in his debut in a spacious Shea, but when he entered Coors he was exposed as an inferior pitcher and didn’t live up the hype nor his Japan numbers. Igawa has a much better team, much better ability to miss bats, and is younger, so this worst-case scenario may be pushing the envelope, but it’s a reminder that the MLB is a lot less friendly to average-to-above-average arms. Nomo’s rookie season was something to be marveled, but matches up well with Igawa’s career in Japan, and one would think if Igawa could translate his Japan numbers in America, similar to Nomo, this would be an absolute best case scenario. The middle ground seems very fair, considering he’s a #4 starter, who was never dominant in Japan, but was a strikeout king. Give him a winning record, since he’s on the Yankees, and I don’t see much reason for anyone to complain.

Something to Prove

You would think, considering second base is considered the most shallow, least talented fantasy position this season, that there would be no pressure on this year’s class. Wrong. As talent-lacking as the position appears to be this offseason, there are numerous second basemen around the league who will need to prove they can maintain or improve their 2006 production, or the position could really become a serious liability for fantasy owners. There are a good number of mid-level second basemen that aren’t getting the credit they’re due, but should these top-tier second basemen with chips on their shoulder for various reasons in 2007, not meet expectations, the mid-tier options could push elite status at the position. Here are top second base candidates with something to prove in 2007:

1. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins
2006 Season: 105 R, 27 HR, 90 RBI, 6 SB, .282

Uggla entered 2006 as a 26-year old, low-ceiling, rule V draft pick battling for a roster spot. He stuck it out, landed the job at second, and never looked back, posting good all-around production, including 60 extra-base hits. Uggla, now 27, is in the prime of his career, and while he was always an above-average minor league hitter, he was always significantly older than his competition. His 2006 is likely as good as it’ll ever get, though it not bad at all, but his track record doesn’t indicate an ability to constantly produce at that level. He cooled off in the second half with a .256 AVG, 1 SB, and a 3:1 K:BB rate and the pressure will be on to prove that he’s more than just a half-season, over-aged prospect flash-in-the-pan and is a legitimate 20 HR, .280 hitter and can be a mid-level starter for years to come at second base.

2. Ray Durham, Giants
2006 Season: 79 R, 26 HR, 93 RBI, 7 SB, .293

Durham was always a very modest all-around fantasy contributor with decent pop and good speed, but when a guy of any caliber posts far-and-away the best single-season HR and RBI totals of his career at age 34, there will always be something to prove. Durham was on a steady downward slope as a former all-star turned league-average second baseman and prior to last season, looked like he might be best suited in a Craig Biggio platoon-esque role. After 26 HRs and a solid .293 AVG, he certainly revived his career, but can he maintain his form now that he’s no longer in a contract year and got his big payday? He’ll be hard-pressed to match those power numbers again in 2007, but should he come close and maintain a respectable average, he could stave off the notion that his career is nearing an end.

3. Robinson Cano, Yankees
2006 Season: 62 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 5 SB, .342

No one contributed more offensively down the stretch to the Yankees’ banged-up, makeshift offense than Cano. No one is expected to post .365-11-51 in a third of a season like Cano did in 53 post-all-star break games, so Cano doesn’t need to prove himself by duplicating his 2006 performance but by continuing to hit notably higher than league-average at 2B and maintain his place atop the AL rankings at the position. Cano is a high-level prospect with untapped power, great contact-hitting abilities, and the ability to shred all comes when he’s on his game, but he’s underrated and under-appreciated in the talent-laden Yankees all-star offense. Cano has put together two very good seasons as a pro, but he’ll need to prove that he’s more than just a role player on a great offense and worthy of the #1 AL 2B label with a healthy, productive campaign.

4. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
2006 Season: 78 R, 13 HR, 74 RBI, 4 SB, .296 AVG

Like Ray Durham, but without half the offensive track record, DeRosa put up career-bests across the board in a 2006 contract year. At age 31, he’s spent nearly his entire career as a utility man, but got another opportunity to crack a starting lineup with the Rangers last season and took advantage of it with timely hitting and all-around flexibility in the field. Now, after four months as a capable starting bat, he earned a fairly-sized contract and a starting job on a rebuilding Cubs unit. He cooled off, hitting .200 from September 1st on last season and has struggled in larger doses in the past. He’ll need to prove he’s more than just a utility hitter who was masquerading as a starter for a couple of months to get a big payday by at least extrapolating his post-all-star break numbers of 9-45-.265 for the Cubs in 2007, since he will be one of the most scrutinized players should Chicago falter out the gate.

5. Jose Valentin, Mets
2006 Season: 56 R, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 6 SB, .271

Valentin was a NRI signed to a minor-league deal last Spring Training before he stuck with the club and eventually usurped no-hit, all-field prospect, Anderson Hernandez. Valentin, a 35-year old hitter coming off a .170 AVG campaign entering 2006, looked like he was on the verge of a coaching gig or retirement more so than a starting job in the field. He shocked many by not only starting, but holding his own and giving the bottom of the Mets lineup some stability. He posted his best season AVG since 2000 combined with modest power and he was even worth starting in some leagues. He got a modest two-year deal to comeback as the Mets’ starter, but he’ll have his work cut for him to prove that he’s still a starter-worthy option in fantasy baseball, whether or not he can start a full season without being a liability, and whether he can continue to stave off retirement.

6. Brandon Phillips, Reds
2006 Season: 65 R, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 25 SB, .276

A former top-10 MLB prospect, Phillips tore up the lower levels of the minors before wearing out his welcome in two organizations, while struggling mightily with both the bat and glove in AAA and extended MLB stints. He bounced around the Indians organization and just didn’t have a role in the team’s future. Bordering on potential minor-league journeyman, quadruple-A’er status, the former prospect revived his potential and career with a stellar showing for the Reds. He made Felipe Lopez expendable and held his own for the rest of the season. He showed more pop that was ever expected of him and stole 25 bases in a mere 27 attempts. Now that pitchers are familiar with him and who he is, he’ll be out to prove that he was worthy of his former top prospect status, that he can be an elite base-stealer, and that his bat is good enough to carry his glove and not to return to Quadruple-A’er status in 2007.

7. Jorge Cantu, Devil Rays
2006 Season: 40 R, 14 HR, 62 RBI, 1 SB, .249

Similarly to Dan Uggla, Cantu was an organizational soldier, who hit well in the minors without making scouts drool nor projecting well as a major league starter. Also like Uggla, Cantu tore it up in his first full season as a starter, hitting 28-117-.286 and getting nabbed as a top 5 2B in 2006. When he followed it up with an injury-marred, subpar offensive campaign, it was easy for some to label him as a fluke or a commodity that had been figured out, but Cantu showed enough upside in 2005 to still have some believers. Last season can be written off as a mulligan if he can return to a fantasy starter-quality level of play, but he’ll have to prove himself as more than a future utility man on a good team with a bounce-back year in 2007.

8. Marcus Giles, Padres
2006 Season: 87 R, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 10 SB, .261

It was only 2003 B.U. (before Utley), when Giles was considered the best up-and-coming second baseman in all of baseball, possessing legitimate 25/25 potential, with a good bat, and the ability to score a ton of runs. Since his 24-year old 101-21-69-.316-14 season, he has gradually regressed to an inconsistent 10/10 hitter, whose average has dropped in each of the last four seasons, hitting an uninspiring .262 low last year. Now, at age 28, after still showing good tools but less-than-impressive results, he was shipped out of Atlanta, viewed as a potential scapegoat, and reunites with his brother in San Diego. Giles is entering a contract year and if he ever wants to re-emerge as an elite 2B with top ten potential and a savory skill set, he needs to rebound with a big year in 2007. He should utilize the big gaps and master Petco as a doubles-hitter, but should he not, he’ll have a hard time proving he’s anything more than a #7-#8 hitter, with modest pop and speed, and an all-around average starter, as opposed to the top-tier player his potential offers.

9. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
2006 Season: 73 R, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 19 SB, .279

The second overall pick in 2003, Weeks was a highly-polished college hitter expected to make an immediate impact and man second base for years to come. In two full seasons since being drafted, Weeks has spent nearly half the time battling injury on the DL, while posting an unimpressive .257 AVG with a 3:1 K:BB rate. Weeks wasn’t nearly as polished as expected, even struggling in AAA, and while he’s still raw, the tools are still there. The Brewers are expected to contend in a weak division this year and Weeks is expected to play an integral role in the process. At age 24, entering his third full season, the time is now for Weeks and all excuses have been used up. A failure to produce better as a hitter and turn those skills into production and he’ll lose that elite luster. He needs to stay healthy, show a better eye, score more runs and overall power if he wants to prove he was worth that #2 overall pick and show that he’s still capable of being an elite, upper-echelon fantasy 2B.

10. Kazuo Matsui & Jamey Carroll, Rockies
Matsui’s 2006 Season: 32 R, 3 HR, 26 RBI, 10 SB, .267
Carroll’s 2006 Season: 84 R, 5 HR, 36 RBI, 10 SB, .300

Carrol, in his first season as starter, showed some good contact hitting ability, but his total lack of power and relative lack of speed and base-stealing success (10 SBs in 22 attempts in 2006), will make it very hard for him to maintain a starting job if he doesn’t hit at least .300. As a career .280 hitter, with an already-established career as a utility man, at age 33, hitting .300 again looks like quite the task. Factor in still only 33 extra-base hits despite playing his home games at Coors and a hideous .220-3-17 road split, and Carroll will need to show some added pop and a better total package to prove he shouldn’t return to the bench as a super-utility, pinch-hitter type and that last year’s impressive peripherals weren’t a Coors-induced fluke.

Similarly, Kaz Matsui, arguably the biggest Japanese flop of them all, put together the best offensive stint of his unproductive career with a 2-19-8-.345 line in 32 games upon joining the Rockies. He offers more offensive upside and power than Carroll, though that’s damning with faint praise, but he also has a better track record as a hitter, is swifter on the base paths, and certainly more intriguing and suited to be a starter. Unfortunately, he hasn’t hit anywhere near that since arriving in the U.S. and his .411 AVG in Coors played a big role in his rebound. Luckily, he’ll take half his at-bats in Coors again in 2007 and could be in line for a starting job to prove he’s not the biggest Japanese-imported fantasy bust and that he could still have some value as a light-hitting, moderate-AVG, base stealer in deeper leagues.