Atlanta Braves
Projected Starting Lineup (with early prediction):
C: Brian McCann (.305/20/84)
1B: Scott Thorman (.264/23/68)
2B: Kelly Johnson (.285/8/53)
SS: Edgar Renteria (.285/14/73)
3B: Chipper Jones (.297/28/85)
RF: Jeff Francouer (.268/25/101)
CF: Andruw Jones (.267/44/124)
LF: Ryan Langerhans (.256/16/47)
UT: Craig Wilson (.263/21/60)
Top Offensive Producer: Andruw Jones, CF
Top Offensive Dud: Ryan Langerhans, LF
Most Undervalued Player: Chipper Jones, 3B
Most Overvalued Player: Jeff Francouer, RF
Most Likely to Rebound: Scott Thorman, 1B
Most Likely to Regress: Brian McCann, C
The Rest:
Kelly Johnson, 2B: Converted outfielder has never played 2B or led off, below-average power, but some speed, can draw walks and could have starter value in NL-only leagues
Edgar Renteria, SS: Revived his career with return to NL, gives you double-digit HR/SBs, good RBI and run production for his position, a solid AVG and reliability
Craig Wilson, UT: Struggled with league switch, but should platoon at 1B and see some ABs in the outfield, strikeouts too often, but good power and can still hit .260-.270 in NL
The Bench:
Matt Diaz, OF
Pete Orr, INF
Brayan Pena, C
Chris Woodward, UTIL
Overall Bench Rating: 6.5/10
Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):
1. John Smoltz (14/3.39)
2. Tim Hudson (14/3.96)
3. Chuck James (12/3.68)
4. Mark Redman (9/5.04)
5. Lance Cormier (8/5.06)
Top Starting Pitcher: John Smoltz, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Chuck James, LHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Mark Redman, LHSP
The Rest:
Tim Hudson, RHSP: His win totals haven’t faltered, but his strikeout totals have become a serious issue and ERA jumped 1.34 in 2006; primed for rebound, but tops out as #4 fantasy starter
Lance Cormier, RHSP: Converted reliever has shown flashes of brilliance, but is all too hittable and best suited for long relief, his stay in rotation could be short if he is hit to tune of .314 again
The Bullpen:
Mike Gonzalez
Macay McBride
Chad Paronto
Rafael Soriano
Oscar Villareal
Tyler Yates
Top Middle Reliever: Rafael Soriano & Mike Gonzalez (tie)
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Macay McBride
Overall Bullpen Rating: 7.0/10
The Closer: Bob Wickman
Prediction: 31 SV, 48 K, 3.76 ERA
Injuries:
Mike Hampton, SP: He has started all of 12 games since ‘05 and missed all of last season, he was expected to make a full recover during the spring, but an oblique strain set him back and he’ll now miss at least the first two months of the season and his long-term value this season is still very risky based on his injury history
Willy Aybar, INF: A sprained right hand will put him on the 15-day DL to start the season and will likely keep him out ofmajor league action through April. The issue has affected his wrist and his swing, so an extended minor league rehab could be in the cards for the young prospect
Biggest Position Battle: Second Base
Kelly Johnson inherited the starting job at second in another Bobby Cox experiment and while he has the team’s confidence, as shown by his placement atop the order, he’s a lifetime .241 hitter, who didn’t even sniff the majors last season, and has never been anything more than a slightly above average prospect. Pete Orr, utility extraordinaire, can hit for contact and play a solid second base and should steal at bats and make a push for the starting job. Veteran presence and pinch-hitter Chris Woodward also has shown some good offensive upside this spring and could be in the mix as well. Countless intriguing prospects including Willy Aybar, Yunel Escobar, and 18-year old Elvis Andrus are not lurking far off in the distance themselves.
Biggest Fantasy Question: Can the newly-promoted, inexperienced starters at first base, second base, and left field live up to their billing and still allow this offense to be atop the NL in runs scored again in 2007 and will it be enough to make up for the weakest back-end of the rotation the Braves have assembled in a long time?
Top 3Prospects Heading into 2007:
1. Scott Thorman, 1B
2. Matt Harrison, SP
3. Yunel Escobar, INF
Florida Marlins
Projected Starting Lineup (with early prediction):
C: Miguel Olivo (.257/17/54)
1B: Mike Jacobs (.256/25/76)
2B: Dan Uggla (.275/22/78)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (.301/12/61)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (.326/32/118)
RF: Jeremy Hermida (.280/18/68)
CF: Alejandro De Aza (.273/3/38)
LF: Josh Willingham (.272/29/83)
UT: Aaron Boone (.258/14/55)
Top Offensive Producer: Miguel Cabrera, 3B
Top Offensive Dud: Aaron Boone, UT
Most Undervalued Player: Josh Willingham, LF
Most Overvalued Player: Mike Jacobs, 1B
Most Likely to Rebound: Jeremy Hermida, RF
Most Likely to Regress: Dan Uggla, 2B
The Rest:
Miguel Olivo, C: has modest power, the ability to swipe the occasional bag, and is still in his prime, but his inability to draw a walk (9 in 430 ABs in ‘06!) will prevent him from ever being a fantasy starter
Hanley Ramirez, SS: A sensational debut resulting in winning the ROY which saw his raw skills gradually refine and do a very good Jose Reyes impression in ‘06, he’s still got some great upside Alejandro De Aza, CF: a very deep sleeper who was the underdog but won the starting CF job, will be on a short leash, but he’s got some blazing speed, and showed some good contact hitting in spring
The Bench:
Alfredo Amezaga, INF
Joe Borchard, OF
Cody Ross, OF
Matt Treanor, C
Overall Bench Rating: 5.0/10
Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):
1. Dontrelle Willis (14/3.63)
2. Scott Olsen (14/3.82)
3. Anibal Sanchez (10/4.14)
4. Sergio Mitre (7/4.91)
5. Ricky Nolasco (10/5.02)
Top Starting Pitcher: Dontrelle Willis, LHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Scott Olsen, LHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Ricky Nolasco, RHSP
The Rest:
Anibal Sanchez, RHSP: Finished with impressive 2.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, but no-hitter embellished stats and already had low K rate. Still a solid #4/5 starter, but not expected to match ‘06 peripherals
Sergio Mitre, RHSP: Still only 25, but has yet to be effective in any longterm stint and appears to top out as a #5 starter with high WHIPs and excessive HRs allowed
The Bullpen:
Kevin Gregg
Matt Lindstrom
Randy Messenger
Henry Owens
Renyel Pinto
Taylor Tankersley
Top Middle Reliever: Taylor Tankersley
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Henry Owens
Overall Bullpen Rating: 6.0/10
The Closer: Jorge Julio
Prediction: 32 SV, 76 K, 3.61 ERA
Injuries:
Josh Johnson, SP: Dealing with a soreness and nerve irritation in his right throwing arm, Johnson will likely miss the first two months of the season, but it was determined surgery won’t be required and he should make a full recovery by mid-to-late June. This is the type of injury that can be cured with some rest, which he’ll receive, so expect him to start throwing again soon and be a fantasy asset in the second half of the season.
Logan Kensing, RP: Kensing underwent Tommy John surgery late last season and his timetable is still very much unknown. Marlins are optimistic he can return after the all-star break, but he’s still in the very early stages of recovery and will not likely be a fantasy factor this season.
Jeremy Hermida, RF: Hermida will start the season on the DL after a hard-luck foul ball ricocheted off his shin causing a deep bone bruise. Hermida has been somewhat fragile in his early stages, so while a full recovery is expected by late April, it is best to still proceed with caution.
Biggest Position Battle: Center Field
Alejandro De Aza, arguably the biggest surprise of the spring, pulled out the starting job in center field despite never playing above AA in his young career. A sharp-hitting spring combined with good baserunning and defense helped him eek out the starting job over veteran journeyman and base-stealer extraordinaire Alex Sanchez and long-time, light-hitting prospect, Eric Reed, but it’s safe to say that he doesn’t have much job security at this point. He has a bright future, but a slow start coupled with decent AAA performances by the more-experienced Reed or Sanchez could call for an early swap. Not to mention, Jeremy Hermida is expected to return in late April, and current platooners Joe Borchard and Cody Ross (both capable CFs) will be tempting options off the bench.
Biggest Fantasy Question: Can the great rookie successes of Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Josh Willingham, Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco, and Taylor Tankersley carry over into 2007 despite being under new management, injury concerns aplenty, and numerous rookies who clearly played over their heads and slowed down in the second half?
Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:
1. Alejandro De Aza, CF
2. Matt Lindstrom, RP
3. Renyel Pinto, RP
New York Mets
Projected Starting Lineup (with early prediction):
C: Paul LoDuca (.298/7/47)
1B: Carlos Delgado (.280/36/121)
2B: Jose Valentin (.252/14/46)
SS: Jose Reyes (.297/17/78)
3B: David Wright (.315/30/115)
RF: Shawn Green (.267/16/62)
CF: Carlos Beltran (.278/35/114)
LF: Moises Alou (.289/24/76)
UT: Endy Chavez (.291/5/41)
Top Offensive Producer: Jose Reyes, SS
Top Offensive Dud: Shawn Green, RF
Most Undervalued Player: Moises Alou, LF
Most Overvalued Player: Paul LoDuca, C
Most Likely to Rebound: Carlos Delgado, 1B
Most Likely to Regress: Jose Valentin, 2B
The Rest:
David Wright, 3B: Despite s econd-half slump, he still put up fantastic numbers and was one of only three players to finish above average in all five major categories, and an improvement this season is not out of the question
Carlos Beltran, CF: Had a huge bounceback year as he found power stroke; SBs on the decline and no longer reliable and he still struggles at Shea, but definitely top-10 OF material
Endy Chavez, UT: Had a great season as fourth outfielder, whose glove, versatility, speed, and pinch-hitting abilities will continue to give him opportunities to be productive and post solid AVG
The Bench:
Ramon Castro, C
Julio Franco, 1B
Lastings Milledge, OF
David Newhan, UTIL
Overall Bench Rating: 7.0/10
Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):
1. Tom Glavine (14/3.76)
2. Orlando Hernandez (13/4.48)
3. John Maine (12/4.07)
4. Oliver Perez (9/4.93)
5. Mike Pelfrey (11/4.53)
Top Starting Pitcher: Tom Glavine, LHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Mike Pelfrey, RHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Orlando Hernandez, RHSP
The Rest:
John Maine, RHSP: Always considered an above-average prospect, but may have played a bit over his head last season. BABIP indicates very good luck and unlikely to repeat long unearned run streak which embellished stats.
Oliver Perez, LHSP: Hard to figure out, but since he’s usually going undrafted, he could be worth a gamble with good offense behind him, relative job security, noticable maturation, and still solid K totals.
The Bullpen:
Ambiorix Burgos
Pedro Feliciano
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoeneweis
Aaron Sele
Joe Smith
Top Middle Reliever: Aaron Heilman
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Joe Smith
Overall Bullpen Rating: 6.5/10
The Closer: Billy Wagner
Prediction: 38 SV, 92 K, 2.40 ERA
Injuries:
Pedro Martinez, SP: Martinez, who will be out through the first half of the season as he recovers from shoulder surgery, still has an open timetable and doesn’t appear to be in any rush to return. An early-to-mid July return isn’t out of the question, but August seems more likely at this time. He struggled in the second half, but he’s savvy and smart enough to still be a successful starter even if the injury has some long-term effects.
Duaner Sanchez, RP: Sanchez was originally expected to be back at full health at the start of the season, but he struggled to throw consistently during the spring and further setbacks ensued, resulting on an extended period on the shelf. He is expected to miss 2-3 months and his future with the Mets is in jeopardy at this point.
Biggest Position Battle: #5 Starter
Super prospect Mike Pelfrey will start the season as the #5 starter with potential for much more, but he will be kept on a short leash. His pitch counts will likely be kept low and should he struggle as he did last season, veterans Aaron Sele or Chan Ho Park could get an instant promotion. The rotation in general is an achilles’ heel and the team can’t afford any rookie struggles in the middle of what will likely be a tight pennant race. Pelfrey has some great stuff, but the Mets may feel safer with an innings-eating veteran like Sele or Park, if Pelfrey isn’t lights out. Also in the mix will be competing prospect and 1st-rounder Philip Humber, who is improving quickly and could be fighting for a spot in the rotation sooner than most think.
Biggest Fantasy Question: Can an aging, albeit still most potent and powerful (in the NL), offense combined with a below-average rotation and revamped bullpen win enough games to stave off the Braves from returning to the top of the division?
Top 3Prospects Heading into 2007:
1. Mike Pelfrey, SP
2. Philip Humber, SP
3. Carlos Gomez, OF
Philadelphia Phillies
Projected Starting Lineup (with early prediction):
C: Rod Barajas (.248/20/55)
1B: Ryan Howard (.302/50/142)
2B: Chase Utley (.310/27/101)
SS: Jimmy Rollins (.281/22/78)
3B: Wes Helms (.272/14/54)
RF: Shane Victorino (.290/5/52)
CF: Aaron Rowand (.269/15/61)
LF: Pat Burrell (.263/30/96)
UT: Jayson Werth (.255/15/48)
Top Offensive Producer: Ryan Howard, 1B
Top Offensive Dud: Rod Barajas, C
Most Undervalued Player: Jimmy Rollins, SS
Most Overvalued Player: Aaron Rowand, CF
Most Likely to Rebound: Jayson Werth, UT
Most Likely to Regress: Wes Helms, 3B
The Rest:
Chase Utley, 2B: Joined David Wright as the second of the three-man club that finished above average in all five major categories; far and away the best 2B in baseball
Shane Victorino, RF: showed good contact abilities and should score a ton of runs in two-hole behind Utley/Howard, just waiting on speed to translate into double-digit SBs
Pat Burrell, LF: Much maligned for his up-and-down contact issues, he’s still a good source of power, runs, and RBIs, high strikeouts hurt, but good all-around #3 OF value
The Bench:
Chris Coste, IF/OF
Greg Dobbs, 3B
Abraham Nunez, INF
Carlos Ruiz, C
Overall Bench Rating: 4.5/10
Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):
1. Brett Myers (14/3.52)
2. Cole Hamels (14/3.89)
3. Freddy Garcia (14/4.26)
4. Adam Eaton (10/4.75)
5. Jamie Moyer (10/4.43)
Top Starting Pitcher: Brett Myers, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Freddy Garcia, RHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Adam Eaton, RHSP
The Rest:
Cole Hamels, LHSP: Dominant lefty with great K rates, good control, exceptional velocity and refining his control. He has fantasy ace potential written all over him and could meet that potential as early as this year.
Jamie Moyer, LHSP: Gracefully aging thanks in part to great ocmmand and ability to utilize off-speed pitches, can still win double-digit games with league average ERA, but strikeout total could get ugly.
The Bullpen:
Antonio Alfonseca
Clay Condrey
Geoff Geary
Jon Lieber
Ryan Madson
Matt Smith
Top Middle Reliever: Geoff Geary
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Jon Lieber
Overall Bullpen Rating: 5.0/10
The Closer: Tom Gordon
Prediction: 36 SV, 72 K, 3.65 ERA
Injuries:
Freddy Garcia, SP: Limited due to mild bicep tenditis, Garcia, a workhorse in the past, should only miss his first or two turns in the rotation this season before making a full recovery. He’ll start the year on the 15-day DL, but it’s retroactive to March 23rd.
Jon Lieber, RP: Lieber could be back even sooner than Garcia as he heals from an oblique strain and could make some starts in the rotation. Oblique injuries have been hard to predict as of late, but all signs point to a speedy recovery.
Scott Mathieson, P: Mathieson will miss most, if not all of 2007, as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. He has started light throwing, but the Phillies still have an open timetable on him and right now the best case scenario would be an extended minor-league rehab stint by July/August.
Biggest Position Battle: Set-up Man
Antonio Alfonseca, who pitched all of 19 games and posted a 5.63 ERA and a .348 BAA last season, is likely to head a set-up-man-by-committee, and needless to say, the Phillies will not hesitate to replace him if he mirrors his ‘06 production. Alfonseca will likely share 8th inning opportunities to begin with and is only likely heading this group due to the experience factor. There should be a good number of holds to go around this season in Philly, and if Alfonseca doesn’t start racking them up, the Phillies could make a quick change and turn to younger, albeit not much more intriguing, arms like Ryan Madson, Matt Smith, or Geoff Geary. There’s also a very good chance a quality reliever is brought in via trade to hold down the fort in the 8th inning.
Biggest Fantasy Question: Can a much-improved rotation and powerful lineup overcome an inexperienced, injury-prone bullpen which lacks a dominant middle reliever, veteran leadership, any kind of stability, and is filled with low-upside arms and preserve leads for closer Tom Gordon?
Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:
1. Michael Bourn, OF
2. Zach Segovia, SP
3. Carlos Ruiz, C
Washington Nationals
Projected Starting Lineup (with early prediction):
C: Brian Schneider (.259/6/52)
1B: Dmitri Young (.276/21/78)
2B: Felipe Lopez (.278/10/55)
SS: Christian Guzman (.263/9/58)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (.293/24/102)
RF: Austin Kearns (.270/23/82)
CF: Nook Logan (.281/3/30)
LF: Ryan Church (.274/16/56)
UT: Chris Snelling (.258/7/43)
Top Offensive Producer: Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
Top Offensive Dud: Brian Schneider, C
Most Undervalued Player: Ryan Church, LF
Most Overvalued Player: Felipe Lopez, 2B
Most Likely to Rebound: Dmitri Young, 1B
Most Likely to Regress: Nook Logan, CF
The Rest:
Christian Guzman, SS: Formerly average offensive producer in AL put up maybe worst offensive season of all-time in ‘05 and missed all of ‘06, SBs down and never a great hitter to begin with
Austin Kearns, RF: Finally stayed healthy and showed good power production, even in RFK. He has good strength and if he can stay healthy in ‘07, could reap benefits of hitting behind Zimmerman
Chris Snelling, UT: Former top prospect who has struggled with injuries throughout career, had solid spring showing, but his only real asset is speed, and has low ceiling
The Bench:
Ronnie Belliard, 2B
Robert Fick, 1B/OF
Jesus Flores, C
Josh Wilson, INF
Overall Bench Rating: 5.0/10
Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):
1. John Patterson (11/3.99)
2. Shawn Hill (8/4.48)
3. Matt Chico (8/4.93)
4. Jerome Williams (8/4.36)
5. Jason Bergmann (6/5.25)
Top Starting Pitcher: John Patterson, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Shawn Hill, RHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Jerome Williams, RHSP
The Rest:
Matt Chico, LHSP: Diminutive lefty with blazing fastball, who could have streaky dominant periods during the season if he keeps his head on straight, should offer modest K rates
Jason Bergmann, RHSP: Converted reliever doesn’t have much upside, but could be a capable innings-eater on bad rotation, best suited for bullpen, where he’ll likely return soon
The Bullpen:
Micah Bowie
Jesus Colome
Ray King
Jon Rauch
Levale Speigner
Ryan Wagner
Top Middle Reliever: Jon Rauch
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Micah Bowie
Overall Bullpen Rating: 5.5/10
The Closer: Chad Cordero
Prediction: 30 SV, 64 K, 2.97 ERA
Injuries:
Luis Ayala, RP: Ayala missed all of last season after undergoing reconstructive elbow surgery in March of ‘06 and was placed back on the 15-day DL to start ‘07 as he still attempts his recovery. His time out of action will likely well past 15 days and he’ll likely have extended minor league rehab session before he is back in the majors.
Nick Johnson, 1B: Johnson, according to reports, is still hobbling around and is being hindered by his most recent right leg fracture. His timetable is very much up in the air and the possibility of missing the entire season has yet to be ruled out. A July/August, post-al-star break return seems like the best-case, and most likely, scenario at this time.
Biggest Position Battle: Left Field
Ryan Church entered the spring with the starting job in LF his to lose, but by the end of the spring, the Nats had a serious dilemma when Chris Snelling posted some very good numbers. Manager Manny Acta gave the edge to the power-hitting Church, but a platoon with the speedier Snelling is not of the question. Church has the edge for now, but Snelling will be lurking on the bench, as will their most MLB-ready and arguably best-hitting prospect, Kory Casto, who will start the season in AAA.
Biggest Fantasy Question: Can the cornerstones of the franchise still thrive despite weak supporting casts – will Ryan Zimmerman still be able to be a top 5 producer at third base with little protection, can John Patterson be worth a #3 fantasy starter spot despite being on an inferior squad with little run support, and can Chad Cordero be a dominant closer and post a solid save total with a team expected to be amongst the worst in baseball?
Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:
1. Shawn Hill, SP
2. Matt Chico, SP
3. Kory Casto, 3B/OF
Posted by James 
Posted by James 