Exit Gold Glover, Enter Black Hole

Update: San Francisco Giants shortstop Omar Vizquel has announced that he will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left knee tomorrow, and as a result, will likely miss all of Spring Training. The surgery is expected to sideline him four to six weeks and puts his status in jeopardy for Opening Day. Vizquel, 41, tried working out the knee today before deciding surgery was the best issue. He’ll tentatively be replaced at shortstop by Kevin Fransden, who was battling both Ray Durham and Rich Aurilia for starting jobs in the infield.

The View: With Vizquel out, the Giants will likely open the season with the right-side of their infield questionable on both offense and defense. Ray Durham will be back at 2B after hitting .218/.295/.343 and Rich Aurilia is expected to start at 3B, despite an equally unimpressive .252/.304/.368 line. Fransden, 25, at least injects some youth and speed into the lineup, but as a natural second baseman, his range and abilities will certainly be put to the test at shortstop. His .331 OBP of a year ago along with natural speed give him the potential to be a top-of-the-lineup hitter down the road, but is right now, best suited hitting seventh or eighth. Like Aurilia and Durham, but on the right side of his peak, Fransden will likely be a below average defender at shortstop and doesn’t offer enough pop to be worth a fantasy roster spot. Fransden is diminutive and fast, but in over 100 games last year, he was only able to swipe four bags in seven attempts. Considering Vizquel isn’t expected to miss much more than the first week of the season, don’t feel compelled to pick up Fransden just because he’ll be an Opening Day starter. Right now the entire right side of the infield should be avoided.Even when Vizquel returns, at age 41, his clear-cut best asset is his defense, which you’re not likely to be rewarded for in any fantasy league. He had a good offensive season in 2006, but last year was another subpar year at the plate, hitting .246 with 4 home runs. He can still steal a few bases, but he even dipped in that department – going from 24 in ‘06 to 14 in ‘07. In an ideal world, Durham and Fransden would be platooning at 2B and Aurilia would be a utility infielder, but the Giants are severely lacking in the major league-ready infield talent department, and all three will likely have to start.

Deep sleepers who could benefit as a result of Vizquel’s injury freeing up an infield spot include: 25-year old Venezuelan superutility prospect Eugenio Velez and Justin Leone, a 31-year old, who annually posts 20+ HR totals and a modest batting average in AAA and could probably give teams league-average production at a much cheaper price than guys like Aurilia.

Tampa Bay Grays

Update: Rumors have surfaced that Tampa Bay is pursuing the possibility of offering a contract to free agent outfielder Barry Bonds. Thus far, this has been a quiet offseason for Bonds as the potential suitor list was dramatically reduced upon hearing his price tag along with potential perjury and obstruction of justice charges, to which Bonds has already pled not guilty. Nevertheless, The St. Petersburg Times is reporting the organization is having internal discussions whether or not they should seriously consider the 43-year old slugger, seven home runs removed of the all-time record and 65 hits short of 3,000. Manager Joe Maddon said he was unaware of the rumors and Andrew Freidman, VP of Operations, called it a “non-story.” Bonds himself has not yet commented on the situation.

The View: Considering Bonds’ prospects are limited, he might want to consider long and hard about joining the Rays, despite a history full of futility. The Rays may have emphasized a youth movement over the last half-decade, but have a history of overspending on the few veteran talents they attract. The Rays have undergone a minor rebuild this season, but it has pushed them closer to being a contender than ever. They already added 38-year old closer Troy Percival, 34-year old lefty specialist Trever Miller, and 35-year old outfielder Cliff Floyd to the major-league roster. They handed out minor-league deals to 38-year old catcher Mike DeFelice (who has a reasonable shot at winning the back-up job) and 35-year old pitcher Brian Anderson (who will compete for a bullpen spot)They also resigned 37-year old Al Reyes, expected to be Percival’s primary set-up man, giving the team their strongest veteran core in a long time and adding some more potential AARP members to the state of Florida.

So do the already aging Rays really even need Bonds?

Percival, Miller, and Reyes all fill voids and all address the team’s biggest problem: a 30th ranked bullpen of a year ago. They’re also low-key producers, good veteran leaders, and do not disrupt the clubhouse chemistry. The organization already cleaned its hands of two of its problem children this offseason, dealing Elijah Dukes to the Nationals and sending Delmon Young to the Twins. Carl Crawford has already come out and stated how the environment is much more positive and they have a stronger clubhouse chemistry than ever.

Assuming, Rocco Baldelli is and stays healthy (albeit, a pretty big assumption), the Rays have their starting outfield in place. They also already added Cliff Floyd as a veteran, power hitting 4th outfielder/designated hitter. They have a top prospect in outfielder Justin Ruggiano and two more pretty good ones in Wes Bankston and Fernando Perez and all could feasibly be major-league ready by the start of the season. They also have Jonny Gomes, who has shown good pop and is capable of handling both corner outfield positions. Bonds would just make a crowded outfield/DH competition more crowded. He should instantly assume the DH spot on a full-time basis (considering the money he’d likely get to sign), but that would move both Floyd and Gomes, who both possess a similar skill set, to the bench and force someone to either be traded or cut. Also, if anyone could completely restructure the clubhouse chemistry, it would be the game’s most-controversial figure and his recliner chair.

All things considered, the Rays could probably field a much better team spending the money they may offer Bonds elsewhere. It’s not always about fielding the best team, though. Bonds would sell tickets and that’s a quality they could desperately use. The team, while still not considered a serious contender, has surpassed the Orioles by a good margin and could field the most competitive team in its young history without Bonds. Adding Bonds would give them a veteran presence and experience needed in the heart of the lineup (much more so than Cliff Floyd could provide).

It’s far from a done deal, but considering Bonds’ potential suitor list should instantly be down to 14 before perjury charges and relative lack of interest shown this offseason, along the lack of other veteran power-hitting options on the market, and this could be the best move for both Bonds and the Rays. If they sign him and his playing time isn’t restricted due to legal issues, he would likely make Floyd (another lefty bat) obsolete and the only Gomes would have a small possibility of eating away at Bonds’ at-bats at DH. Bonds’ playing time has been limited by his aging body and the fact that he was a liability in left field, but both concerns would be significantly reduced if all he had to do is worry about hitting. He still has 30 HR potential, walks at a higher rate than any other hitter, and scores a reasonable amount of runs. As a DH, he has the best chance of reaching these numbers, and if a deal is struck, he should be considered as a mid-to-late round option for the utility/DH spot in fantasy league starting lineups.

The Top Ten Storylines of 2008

At the outset of every fantasy season, there are a small number of themes or topics that grab the headlines and inevitably set the tone for most fantasy drafts and auctions. Every year, these teams provide the basis and general overview for what to expect in the coming year and while they’re not all-encompassing, they provide an informative foundation for the upcoming season. In order to ensure the most efficient and successful draft, you’ll need to go beyond just the attention-grabbing headline stories and major themes. Nevertheless, I’ve found that recapping the most powerful storylines of the offseason and those with the biggest direct effect on fantasy drafts and early roster set-ups and building off of them often makes for an effective way to open a fantasy season. So without further adieu:

1. The Three-Hundred Million Dollar Man

When it comes to controversial, emotional, and attention-grabbing headlines (that don’t have to deal with steroids or performance-enhancing drugs), no one monopolizes the market like Alex Rodriguez. Prior to A-Rod signing his second record-shattering contract in baseball history, Yahoo! Sports did a team-by-team offseason primer for every team in the league and every team had a section devoted to their chances of signing him; they called it the A-Rod-Meter. No one receives the special media attention A-Rod does, but no one can say he hasn’t earned it. Not only did he lead the league in media coverage last year, he won the AL MVP, and was, far and away, the most productive fantasy option in all formats.

After he lit up opposing pitchers to the tune .314-54-156 and was practically handed the MVP award in August, he stole the offseason limelight by not only opting out of the then-richest contract in baseball history, but doing so in the midst of the World Series, and then signing the new richest contract in baseball history with the same team. A-Rod agreed to the framework of a 10-year, $275 million deal, that also includes $30 million in bonuses when he inevitably sets the home run record in the next decade.

Money? Check. Media attention? Check. Awards? Check. It’s no surprise A-Rod is the superstar he is and poster boy for media coverage, but what does this all mean in terms of fantasy baseball? In a nutshell: the owner who holds the #1 pick is not only taking A-Rod, but he’s not even thinking twice about it.

Last year on March 7th, I did an Average Draft Position Report and discovered that Albert Pujols’ ADP was 1.08 (which I said was “about as close to a consensus #1 overall pick as you’ll ever get). Turns out I was wrong. Between engulfing last year’s consensus #1 Pujols’ production, leading all hitters in runs scored, home runs, RBIs, SLG, and OPS, sticking around to play in one of the most potent lineups in baseball, and earning the richest salary of all-time, A-Rod’s ADP is currently 1.06. This means (since according to the report he hasn’t been taken lower than #2 overall in any draft) that, on average, in every 100 drafts, A-Rod goes #1 overall in 94 of them and #2 overall in the other 6.

So, in an ideal world, if you have the #1 overall pick, you take A-Rod. Even if you don’t like him, rather have David Wright at third, or think he’ll flop this year, you take him and you trade him for a king’s ransom. Hanley Ramirez is currently second on the ADP report and at this point even he could fetch A-Rod in a trade without a top of the line starter or a second-tier third base replacement. A-Rod’s value right now is more dominant than his media attention and there’s really no reason to doubt it. He’s still in his prime (as obvious by last season) at age 33 and the closest thing the man has had to a down year in the last decade is a 36-106-.286-28 campaign that most hitters would dream about having.

Though, as we’ve annually seen, being the top-ranking fantasy player before the season starts, doesn’t mean you’ll still be there at the end of the season. Last year, Albert Pujols was #1 on the ADP charts, this year he’s #7. Last fall, no one dared pass on LaDainian Tomlinson with the #1 pick in fantasy football drafts, and while he may have been the most productive, he didn’t possess the stranglehold over the rest of the competition like everyone expected. A-Rod is the clear-cut headliner of this fantasy season, but as history has shown us, there’s no guarantee he will back here next season.

Ranking the Rotations: National League

On Thursday, February 21st, we kicked off the 2008 Fantasy Baseball season by ranking the American League rotations. Today, in the second article of the series, we follow-up with the National League:

National League Starting Rotations

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Tentative Rotation:
1. Brad Penny
2. Jason Schmidt
3. Derek Lowe
4. Hiroki Kuroda
5. Chad Billingsley

Review: The rotation may lack a lefty, but when everyone is healthy, the Dodgers are loaded with four veteran arms, all capable of being top-of-the-rotation pitchers. The fifth, Chad Billingsley, is a 22-year old future All-star, coming off his first full-season workload in the majors that resulted in a 12-5 record, 3.31 ERA, and 141/66 K/BB rate. In most rotations, Billingsley would fit in as a #2/#3. In Los Angeles, he’s the #5, who will have to wait a long time before he gets his shot as an ace. He can thank last year’s All-star game starter Brad Penny (16-4, 3.03), Derek Lowe, who’s averaging 15 wins over the last six seasons and has three straight sub-4.00 ERA campaigns, and rapidly-rehabbing Jason Schmidt, who prior to last year’s injury-riddled season, was considered a bona fide ace and a top five starter in the National League. Not to mention, the Dodgers also went out an signed Japanese standout Hiroki Kuroda, a 32-year old in his peak, who could’ve been signed as a #2/#3 starter elsewhere.

Ranking most contingent upon: The health of Jason Schmidt and the legitimacy of Hiroki Kuroda’s success in Japan. Schmidt underwent season-ending right shoulder surgery last June and the initial timetable had him getting off to a delayed start this year. In his first bullpen session of the spring, he proved to be well ahead of schedule, impressing new manager Joe Torre, and making the notion of him being ready for Opening Day a likely reality. Kuroda, the second star starter to come over from Japan in the last two years, was 91-81 with a career 3.77 ERA in 10 seasons, but Daisuke Matsuzaka was 93-45 with a 2.81 career ERA before coming over and he only finished with a 4.40 ERA in his debut season. Kuroda is a more low-upside, low-risk pitcher who could get off to a better start, but will have a lot to prove on his $10,000,000+ a year salary. Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Hiroki Kuroda doesn’t possess the same electric stuff as Matsuzaka did going into last season, but he’s a bit older, a bit more experienced and a bit more refined. He doesn’t have the ace potential Dice-K does, but with a good mix of pitches and a high baseball IQ, combined with pitching in a pitcher-friendly home park in the pitcher-friendliest division in baseball, it could result in a similar season to Dice-K’s 15 wins and 4.40 ERA a year ago or better.

Subject to Change: Penny, Lowe, Kuroda, and Billingsley are all but assured of a starting role and their spots within the rotation. The wildcard is Jason Schmidt. The Dodgers were half-expecting to open the season without him and their projected rotation prior to his first bullpen session had veteran Esteban Loiaza as the interim fill-in at #5 until Schmidt was ready to return. If Schmidt is healthy, this is all but concrete; if not, Loiaza should be the favorite to fill out the rotation for now.

On The Radar: Esteban Loiaza is the favorite because he’s a solid veteran pitcher with enough left in the tank to maintain a starting job and should be a capable fifth starter fill-in. The Dodgers didn’t invite any of their top pitching prospects to training camp this spring and without any intriguing arms out of the bullpen, as long as Loiaza can hold off a few interesting, but non-threatening non-roster invitees, he’s the only one legitimately on the radar if Schmidt isn’t ready to go.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks

Tentative Rotation:
1. Brandon Webb
2. Randy Johnson
3. Dan Haren
4. Doug Davis
5. Micah Owings

Review: If Schmidt isn’t healthy to open the year, the Diamondbacks could easily have the best and deepest rotation in baseball. Of course, after acquiring stud 26-year-old Dan Haren to give them arguably the best 1-2 punch in baseball with one of the game’s most reliable pitchers and 2006 Cy Young Award winner, Brandon Webb, their success may also hinge on the health of a rehabbing veteran. Randy Johnson may be one of the greatest of all-time, but in order to provide a bridge between righties Haren and Webb, he’ll need to show his 44-year-old weathered arm, body, and frame can still handle a full-season workload. He showed he’s still effective when he’s healthy, but the emphasis is on when he’s healthy, which wasn’t the case for the majority of last season. Doug Davis, a prototypical unglamorous but solid lefty, and Micah Owings, coming off a strong rookie debut round out a talented rotation.

Ranking most contingent upon: Randy Johnson’s health. The Diamondbacks would like to interject a lefty between Webb and Haren in the two-hole and Davis doesn’t have the arm to hold down the spot. If Johnson isn’t 100%, it moves every one up a spot and the rotation doesn’t look quite as good on paper.

Ranking the Rotations: American League

In my first series of articles for 2008, I’ve decided to focus on perhaps the most unpredictable aspect on fantasy baseball: starting pitching. There’s a reason the first round is almost always dominated with position players and it’s not because point-for-point they’re that much for valuable in head-to-head or roto leagues, but because they’re much more reliable. Take the top five, six positional players in the fantasy baseball, guys like Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, David Wright, Vladimir Guerrero, Miguel Cabrera. Alfonso Soriano, David Ortiz and so on. When was the last time any of them had a bad season or a disappointing year that significantly prevented your team from winning? Even with Pujols’ “down year” last year, he was still one of the game’s best hitters and his .327-32-103 would’ve been considered a career year for 90% of the league.

Now, take the top five or six starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, Johan Santana aside, and scattered about will be several years of disappointment for various reasons (see: Jake Peavy, 2006, or Chris Carpenter, 2007). Pitchers obviously are more prone to injury, but there are also seems to be a much higher variance of inconsistency even amongst the game’s elite in comparison to hitters. Again in 2008, there’s no shortage of risks when it comes to drafting your starting rotation, and this year the risk is more stratified than ever. The risks and red flags start right at the top, with questions of whether or not Johan Santana will be able to handle the pressure of New York or if he’ll crumble like many superstars before him, and it goes straight on down through the line, including big-name pitchers such as: Josh Beckett (weight gain?), Curt Schilling (retirement?), Dontrelle Willis (overrated?), Pedro Martinez (endurance?), Dan Haren (fluke?), Erik Bedard (fully healed?), Fausto Carmona (fluke?), and so on and so forth.

Before we poke and prod this year’s starting pitching class and determine who is and isn’t worth the risk (and who’s of no risk at all), it’s best we start by laying the groundwork with an overview of each team’s rotational situation. No rotation is set in stone and the overall condition of a team’s rotation, including the other pitchers of which its comprised, can often heavily influence an individual pitcher’s outlook, so without further adieu, the first half of this year’s rotational rankings:

American League Starting Rotations

1. Los Angeles Angels

Tentative Rotation:
1. John Lackey
2. Kelvim Escobar
3. Jon Garland
4. Jered Weaver
5. Joe Saunders

Review: With the addition of Jon Garland, the Angels’ rotation went from a top-heavy unit with questionable inexperience on the back-end to possibly the best in baseball. Jon Garland is not the type of pitcher who puts a team over the top (nor was he alone worth Orlando Cabrera), but he’s a prototypical #3 starter in this league. He wins double-digit games, stays healthy, has good endurance, is in his prime, and has the experience and reliability managers look for. Combined with two Cy Young favorites in Lackey and Escobar at the top and two highly-touted young arm on the back in Weaver and Saunders, and Garland is the perfect compliment in the middle.

Ranking most contingent upon: Joe Saunders, the team’s lone lefty starter, extrapolating his average-to-above-average production in his first full season in the rotation.

Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Jered Weaver seems to have been buried on most fantasy boards and depth charts, especially now as his team’s fourth starter, but he should be earmarked as a mid-round sleeper. He dominated in his first big-league season in 2006 (after minimal minor league experience), and despite injury and inconsistency, still won 13 games with a near 3/1 K/BB rate and a sub-4.00 ERA. At age 24, he hasn’t even approached his prime and back at full strength in 2008, he could on the horizon of a very impressive fantasy campaign, especially with a strong offense and defense behind him.

Subject to Change: One of the reasons this is the top rotation in the American League is because there are no question marks at this time. All five pitchers are healthy, and not only are they locked into the rotation, but so is their sequential order.

On The Radar: Ervin Santana, who still has plenty of potential, and one of the liveliest arms in the game, will likely start the season in AAA. The bar was set high for him in 2007 and he came up significantly short. His primary reason for the downfall: an inability to pitch on the road. He was just 1-10 with eyesores in the ERA and opposing batting average department, at 8.38 and .325, respectively. He also has some control and confidence issues to work on, but barring an injury, he’ll start the year on the outside looking in. The Angels, at this time, show no interest in trading him.

2. Toronto Blue Jays