In my first series of articles for 2008, I’ve decided to focus on perhaps the most unpredictable aspect on fantasy baseball: starting pitching. There’s a reason the first round is almost always dominated with position players and it’s not because point-for-point they’re that much for valuable in head-to-head or roto leagues, but because they’re much more reliable. Take the top five, six positional players in the fantasy baseball, guys like Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, David Wright, Vladimir Guerrero, Miguel Cabrera. Alfonso Soriano, David Ortiz and so on. When was the last time any of them had a bad season or a disappointing year that significantly prevented your team from winning? Even with Pujols’ “down year” last year, he was still one of the game’s best hitters and his .327-32-103 would’ve been considered a career year for 90% of the league.
Now, take the top five or six starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, Johan Santana aside, and scattered about will be several years of disappointment for various reasons (see: Jake Peavy, 2006, or Chris Carpenter, 2007). Pitchers obviously are more prone to injury, but there are also seems to be a much higher variance of inconsistency even amongst the game’s elite in comparison to hitters. Again in 2008, there’s no shortage of risks when it comes to drafting your starting rotation, and this year the risk is more stratified than ever. The risks and red flags start right at the top, with questions of whether or not Johan Santana will be able to handle the pressure of New York or if he’ll crumble like many superstars before him, and it goes straight on down through the line, including big-name pitchers such as: Josh Beckett (weight gain?), Curt Schilling (retirement?), Dontrelle Willis (overrated?), Pedro Martinez (endurance?), Dan Haren (fluke?), Erik Bedard (fully healed?), Fausto Carmona (fluke?), and so on and so forth.
Before we poke and prod this year’s starting pitching class and determine who is and isn’t worth the risk (and who’s of no risk at all), it’s best we start by laying the groundwork with an overview of each team’s rotational situation. No rotation is set in stone and the overall condition of a team’s rotation, including the other pitchers of which its comprised, can often heavily influence an individual pitcher’s outlook, so without further adieu, the first half of this year’s rotational rankings:
American League Starting Rotations
1. Los Angeles Angels
Tentative Rotation:
1. John Lackey
2. Kelvim Escobar
3. Jon Garland
4. Jered Weaver
5. Joe Saunders
Review: With the addition of Jon Garland, the Angels’ rotation went from a top-heavy unit with questionable inexperience on the back-end to possibly the best in baseball. Jon Garland is not the type of pitcher who puts a team over the top (nor was he alone worth Orlando Cabrera), but he’s a prototypical #3 starter in this league. He wins double-digit games, stays healthy, has good endurance, is in his prime, and has the experience and reliability managers look for. Combined with two Cy Young favorites in Lackey and Escobar at the top and two highly-touted young arm on the back in Weaver and Saunders, and Garland is the perfect compliment in the middle.
Ranking most contingent upon: Joe Saunders, the team’s lone lefty starter, extrapolating his average-to-above-average production in his first full season in the rotation.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Jered Weaver seems to have been buried on most fantasy boards and depth charts, especially now as his team’s fourth starter, but he should be earmarked as a mid-round sleeper. He dominated in his first big-league season in 2006 (after minimal minor league experience), and despite injury and inconsistency, still won 13 games with a near 3/1 K/BB rate and a sub-4.00 ERA. At age 24, he hasn’t even approached his prime and back at full strength in 2008, he could on the horizon of a very impressive fantasy campaign, especially with a strong offense and defense behind him.
Subject to Change: One of the reasons this is the top rotation in the American League is because there are no question marks at this time. All five pitchers are healthy, and not only are they locked into the rotation, but so is their sequential order.
On The Radar: Ervin Santana, who still has plenty of potential, and one of the liveliest arms in the game, will likely start the season in AAA. The bar was set high for him in 2007 and he came up significantly short. His primary reason for the downfall: an inability to pitch on the road. He was just 1-10 with eyesores in the ERA and opposing batting average department, at 8.38 and .325, respectively. He also has some control and confidence issues to work on, but barring an injury, he’ll start the year on the outside looking in. The Angels, at this time, show no interest in trading him.
2. Toronto Blue Jays Tentative Rotation:
1. Roy Halladay
2. A.J. Burnett
3. Dustin McGowan
4. Shaun Marcum
5. Casey JanssenReview: Countless and devastating injuries to the pitching staff last season may have turned out to be a blessing in disguise for the 2008 Toronto Blue Jays. GM J.P. Ricciardi tried out countless, cheap veteran stop-gap starters, ranging from Victor Zambrano to Tomo Ohka to John Thomson, all equally disastrous and unproductive. This opened the door to the emergence of young, talented homegrown starters including Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Casey Janssen, and Jesse Litsch. They all showed rapid and significant development last season and are all still on the right side of their peak years, making them the perfect supporting cast to ace Roy Halladay and second-in-command lefty A.J. Burnett.
Ranking most contingent upon: The health of top two starters, Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett, who since 2003 (ten combined seasons) have combined for only four seasons of 30+ starts.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Dustin McGowan was bordering on bust status before last year’s breakout campaign. He was drafted in the first round by the Blue Jays in 2000, continually showed good development and poise in the minors, but was continually knocked around in the majors. The Blue Jays continued to tout him as their top pitching prospect and stuck with him, despite countless lapses and intriguing trade offers and it eventually paid off. McGowan, now 25, seems poised to enter his peak years and while he’s still relatively inconsistent, he showed enough flashes of brilliance and dominance last season, that he’s still viewed as a potential ace down the line. He has the highest ceiling of the team’s young starters and could start to reach it as early as this season, potentially passing up Burnett on the depth chart.
Subject to Change: Casey Janssen has been penciled in as the #5 starter after a spotless season of set-up work in 2007. He was a starter throughout his minor league career, but looked very comfortable in a relief role last season, often pitching multiple innings at a time. His spot in the rotation is contingent upon the anticipated Opening Day return of B.J. Ryan. If Ryan is healthy and ready to reassume the role of closer, the Jays will have no problem turning to Jeremy Accardo, Jason Frasor, and Scott Downs as their set-up men. If Ryan isn’t ready to go, the Jays will likely want Janssen back in the bullpen to provide stability and have Jesse Litsch assume his spot in the rotation.
On The Radar: The aforementioned Litsch went 7-9 with a 3.81 ERA in his rookie season last year and would likely be a lock to regain a starting spot in most rotations. Nevertheless, with the starting pitching depth, Litsch looks like he’ll either start the year in AAA or perhaps in a long-relief role in the majors. Also, still lurking on the radar is the soft-armed Gustavo Chacin, who has been limited to 22 starts over the last two years due to injury. It wasn’t long ago, the lefty was considered the heir to Ted Lilly’s #3 spot in the rotation, and at age 26, there’s still plenty of mileage left on his arm, but he’s still dealing with a shoulder injury that should put him back on the DL to start the season.
3. Seattle Mariners
Tentative Rotation:
1. Erik Bedard
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Jarrod Washburn
4. Carlos Silva
5. Miguel Batista
Review: The Mariners rotation went from middle-of-the-pack to American League elite overnight with acquisition of lefty ace Erik Bedard for a slew of prospects. There’s still a reasonable amount of uncertainty surrounding Bedard, after an arm surgery cut his potential Cy Young season short last year and the fact that he still has but one sub-3.50 ERA season under his belt. Nevertheless, combined with phenom Felix Hernandez, they make possibly the most formiddable, talent-laden 1-2 punch in the AL. They’re backed with a myriad of unglamorous, but crafty, experienced arms, all with double-digit win potential.
Ranking most contingent upon: Carlos Silva’s 2007 campaign being one of legitimate success and not another contract year miracle worker who suckered the Mariners out of a big payday (yet again). Silva, in 2007: 4.19 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .287 BAA. Silva, in 2006: 5.94 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, .324 BAA.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Anytime your tenative #5 pitcher is coming off a 16-win season, you know you have a solid rotation. But, how reliable are win totals from a year ago? Miguel Batista had a modest career rebound at age 36 last season and he hasn’t dropped off yet despite his age, thanks to good deceptiveness, solid control, and an ability to induce timely groundballs, but expecting him to duplicate last year’s total may be aiming a bit too high. Batista’s success hinged upon a healthy dosage of good luck and unfamiliarity amongst hitters. In his second season in the AL West, hitters will certainly be more familiar with him, so here’s to good luck. He’s still a solid #5, but dont’ be surprised if a regression is in the works.
Subject to Change: Right now, the Mariners are set with their top five starters, but Silva (despite his $48 million) and Batista, are not written in ink. It will take an injury or complete dropoff in production for the win-now Mariners to pull either veteran for one of their younger options, but it’s not completely out of the question. Tentatively, though, everyone is healthy and the rotation is set.
On The Radar: Horacio Ramirez had moderate success with the Braves, but struggled mightily upon making the league change to the AL. He profiled as a back-end starter as it was, but after his ERA ballooned to over 7.00 last season, it’s certain he’ll open in AAA this year. He’s in a similar mold to the aforementioned Silva, a finesse pitcher, reliant on good control and defense, and he should get his shot again should injuries strike. Also on the radar is former first-round pick, Brandon Morrow, a starter by nature, but a relief pitcher, due to the Mariners’ lack of bullpen depth. He still projects as a starter in the long-run, but until they find a suitable solution to setting up J.J. Putz, his immediate future is in the bullpen.
4. Cleveland Indians
Tentative Rotation:
1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Fausto Carmona
3. Jake Westbrook
4. Paul Byrd
5. Cliff Lee
Review: The Indians entered 2007 with a prospective “Big Three” consisting of C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, and Cliff Lee. Sabathia held up his end of the deal, winning the AL Cy Young, but Westbrook struggled with injury and being entirely all too hittable before a strong finish resolidifed him as the team’s #3 starter, and Lee finished the year with a 6.29 ERA and in AAA. Sabathia’s career year was complimented with an emergence from obscurity by second-year reliever-turned-starter, Fausto Carmona, who has locked up the #2 spot with a 19-win, 3.08 ERA season. The back-end is filled out by 37-year old Paul Byrd, coming off an impressive 15-win season and a controversial off-season, and a lefty of the organization’s choice (Lee, Jeremy Sowers, or Aaron Laffey).
Ranking most contingent upon: Fausto Carmona following up his completely unexpected and entirely impressive 2007 season (19-8, 3.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) with another strong showing and proving he’s not a fluke.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Aaron Laffey, a far less glamorous prospect than former first-round picks Jeremy Sowers and Adam Miller, could have the fast track on the #5 spot, especially with the trade rumors swirling around Cliff Lee. Laffey, a crafty lefty, went 4-2 in 9 starts, posting a 4.56 ERA and a 2/1 K/BB rate. He even logged four scoreless innings in the ALCS against the Red Sox. The Indians have no plans to put him in the bullpen right now and if all goes well in spring training, he could lock up a rotation spot, at which point, he should be on fantasy radars as a late-round sleeper.
Subject to Change: The top four spots have been solidified, but the fifth spot, currently with Lee penciled in, is up for grabs. Lee has the most experience, but with Sabathia, Westbrook, and Byrd already in the rotation, it may not be a significant factor in the decision and with a slew of younger lefties on the 40-man roster, he may be most valuable in a trade. If Lee is dealt, Laffey, as mentioned, had a strong debut in his nine-start stint, and Adam Miller, still the team’s highly-touted prospect, will also make a push for his spot.
On The Radar: In addition to Laffey and Miller, there’s Jeremy Sowers, the 2004 first-round pick, who went 7-4 with a 3.57 ERA in 2006 but imploded last season with a 6.42 ERA, is still in the mix. He’s still in the team’s long-term plans, but will almost certainly start the year atop the team’s AAA rotation.
5. Boston Red Sox
Tentative Rotation:
1. Josh Beckett
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka
3. Jon Lester
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Clay Buchholz
Review: Josh Beckett is a bona fide ace, but with Curt Schilling’s season (and career) in jeopardy, the rest of the rotation has become a bit unstable. Hindsight is 20/20, but how much better would this rotation look with Johan Santana in it instead of Jon Lester? This was considered a top-5 rotation in all of baseball a few weeks ago and it still can be, even without Schilling, but it has become a strict proponent of risk vs. reward. Behind Beckett, is Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is coming off a second-half struggle in his MLB debut, Jon Lester, with 26 career starts and a pedestrian 4.68 career ERA, and Clay Buchholz, who tossed a no-hitter last season, but still qualifies as a rookie. They’ll all be joined by 41-year old knuckleballer, Tim Wakefield, who has more experience than all four combined and coming off a healthy 17-win, 4.76 ERA season. The potential is through the roof for Matsuzaka, Lester, and Buchholz, but can they reach it in 2008?
Ranking most contingent upon: Curt Schilling not likely to pitch anytime in the near future. Apparently, Schilling wanted to opt for season-ending surgery, but the Red Sox are merely suggesting rehab – probably not a good formula for a 41-year old with recent arm history. If signs point to a healthy Schilling (however unlikely it is), the rotation has to be bumped up a few notches, but is it really that much of a lateral move if Buchholz is the real deal?
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: The only thing that has halted the hype of Clay Buchholz this offseason as an immediate fantasy impact pitcher is the fact that it didn’t appear that he would have a spot in the rotation. With Schilling’s latest arm injury, Buchholz not only has himself a spot in the rotation, but is bound to see his fantasy value skyrocket. If you draft soon, draft him before the hype sets in. He’s already a known commodity to avid fantasy ballers, but his current ADP (average draft position) could be cut in half by the end of the month.
Subject to Change: Other than a miraculous immediate return by Schilling, it would be thoroughly surprising to see anyone else crack the rotation. Wakefield’s spot is secured thanks to his vast experience and craftiness, but his 2007 success was heavily reliant on good run support (though, admittingly, he did allow no earned runs in 5 of his 31 starts). If the Red Sox decide to go out and land a veteran starter, Wakefield could slide into a long relief role (similar to one previously held by Julian Tavarez), but other than that, what you see is what you’re going to get to open the season for Boston.
On The Radar: Lester and Buchholz have been on the radar for the past couple of seasons and now that they’re in the rotation, there’s currently no young starting pitchers on the cusp of cracking the rotation. Julian Tavarez was brought back and is considered the only competition to Clay Buchholz, but he’s still a complete longshot at this point.
6. Detroit Tigers
Tentative Rotation:
1. Justin Verlander
2. Dontrelle Willis
3. Jeremy Bonderman
4. Kenny Rogers
5. Nate Robertson
Review: The Tigers went into the 2007 season with one of the best and most intriguing 1-2 punches with staff ace and innings-eater Jeremy Bonderman and reigning ROY Justin Verlander. They were on pace to be amongst the best starting pitching duo in baseball until Bonderman completely collapsed in the second half with a 2-8 record and 7.38 ERA. This year Verlander takes over as the ace after his second stand-out season, but Bonderman will be slid into the #3 spot. Newly-acquired lefty Dontrelle Willis, coming off an equally disappointing season to Bonderman, will hope to rebound as the team’s #2. Filling out the rotation are veteran lefties, Nate Robertson and Kenny Rogers, offering a good mix of pedestrian success, an ability to eat innings, and provide experience and stability to the rotation.
Ranking most contingent upon: Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis rebounding from last year’s disastrous campaigns and re-establishing themselves as top-of-the-rotation starters.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Dontrelle Willis has always been considered one of the riskiest starting pitcher investments in fantasy baseball due to an unstable Marlins’ franchise, a herky-jerky delivery, sporadic control and consistency issues, and the hype that has surrounded him since winning ROY. Last year, he was feasted on by critics after a 5.17 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and allowing 29 HRs. This year, he switches leagues, joins a contender, is backed by one of the best lineups in the league, and no longer has the pressure of carrying a franchise on his shoulders. He’s started 32+ games in each of the last four seasons, and as long as he keeps that streak alive this season, he’ll easily top his 10 wins of a year ago, with an explosive Tigers’ lineup behind him. He’s still only 27 and after four years of success, all signs point to a rebound after career-worst numbers on a moribund Marlins’ squad last season.
Subject to Change: All five starters’ jobs are secure, the only potential shake-up is who will be the #2 starter. With three lefties in the rotation, righties Verlander and Bonderman will need to be split up at the top. Conventional wisdom says Willis would be the #2 starter, but depth charts currently show Kenny Rogers in that position. The Tigers may choose experience over potential here and give Rogers the job, but either way, it has little bearing on the fantasy values of either.
On The Radar: The Tigers got to try out some of their young arms when injuries inevitably striked last season, but no one other than the recently traded Andrew Miller caught anyone’s eye. Jordan Tata and Virgil Vazquez are the top two starting pitching prospects in terms of major league readiness, but both will start the season in the minors and won’t crack the rotation unless injuries strike.
7. New York Yankees
Tentative Rotation:
1. Chien-Ming Wang
2. Andy Pettitte
3. Philip Hughes
4. Mike Mussina
5. Ian Kennedy
Review: Another year and another unstable rotation to open the season for the Yankees, but this may be the riskiest set of starters they have put forward. Chien-Ming Wang is a sure thing atop of the rotation as a finesse-pitching, groundball-inducing machine. Wang has continued his meteoric rise from an above-average, unpublicized prospect to staff ace and while he doesn’t rack up the strikeouts, he shows good poise, leadership, and gives the Yankees a chance to win everytime he takes the mound. He’s joined by aging veterans, Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina, the former still a top lefty in the game but a controversial offseason and questions of his desire to still play plague his value while the latter is coming off a career-worst season. The final two spots are tentatively filled by 2 of their top 3 pitching prospects, Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Hughes didn’t falter, making a seamless transition to the majors last year and holding his own over 13 starts. Kennedy didn’t falter either, but the Yankees are setting the bar high for the 22-year old with three career starts under his belt. Both have unlimited potential, but they’re still risky propositions in the rotation with minimal experience and bound to be under heavy scrutiny.
Ranking most contingent upon: Andy Pettitte’s on-field performance being unphased by a controversial offseason and the fact that he is in his self-proclaimed final season before retirement. If Pettitte isn’t a stand-out lefty and can be a reliable bridge from Wang to the rest of the unstable rotation, this ranking could take a tumble.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Philip Hughes’ continued success wouldn’t surprise most avid fantasy baseball fans, but looking at the numbers of all the Yankees’ tentative starters, his are the most likely to vary from last year’s production, and in a favorable manner. He might not be ready to make a run at Wang’s role as ace, but continued improvement in 2008, now with no lingering injury concerns, could have him bordering on ace potential for 2009. There’s very little not to like here and he’s still currently ranked as the top Yankees’ pitching prospect, despite strong pushes from Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain.
Subject to Change: Ian Kennedy’s grip on the 5th spot in tenuous at best right now. In normal circumstances, giving a 22-year old, coming off an impressive (albeit short) stint as a starter wouldn’t be a big deal. But this is the Yankees. This is also a team already putting a lot of weight on the shoulders of one young budding superstar pitcher. If Hughes and Kennedy both make the rotation, their pitch counts will be monitored closely, which could puta lot of stress on the aging arms of Mussina and Pettitte. Kennedy’s spring training poise will have a lot to say as to whether or not he keeps the 5th spot or opens in AAA.
On The Radar: The most likely in-house candidate for the 5th spot if the Yankees don’t think Kennedy is ready would have to be Japanese veteran Kei Igawa. He got knocked around in his MLB debut, but he’s worked closely with new pitching coach Dave Eiland, and the Yankees aren’t ready to give up on the investment. He’s the most established of the bunch, but there’s no shortage of talented young arms ready to make the jump to the majors. The usual spot-starting suspects such as Jeffrey Karstens, Darrell Rasner, and Chase Wright are still around, but so is a slew of even more intriguing, higher-upside pitchers. Alan Horne, Ross Ohlendorf, Jeffrey Marquez, and Humberto Sanchez are all amongst the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, and with the Yankees no strangers to injury, anyone of them could find themselves getting a shot by season’s end. The Yankees have a plenthora of options waiting in the wings, but this a partial list not even including the injury-plagued, multimillionaire Carl Pavano, who’s still on the payroll, a couple of highly-rated draft picks from last year, and the high probability of the Yankees still going out and getting an expensive veteran arm.
8. Minnesota Twins
Tentative Rotation:
1. Francisco Liriano
2. Scott Baker
3. Livan Hernandez
4. Boof Bonser
5. Kevin Slowey
Review: It’s quite a feat when a rotation loses the undisputed best pitcher in baseball, replaces him with an uglamorous innings-eating middle-of-the-rotation pitcher and is still verging on being in the better of the half. The Twins were able to part ways with Johan Santana thanks to one of the best farm systems in baseball and countless high-level minor league pitching prospects. The success of the rotation, though, hinges on the return of phenom Francisco Liriano, a Santana clone in 2006, before missing all of 2007 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Twins seem to expect him to miss little to no time once his visa issue is resolved and if he is back, he’ll supplant whoever currently sits atop the depth chart as the ace. Behind him, Boof Bonser and Scott Baker are still young, but have developed into a solid supporting cast after taking their licks in the rotation over the past two seasons. Livan Hernandez was a nice stop-gap addition, signing a one-year deal to eat innings and provide veteran leadership to a young rotation. The final spot will be filled by yet another home-grown, high-upside pitcher, the favorite currently Kevin Slowey.
Ranking most contingent upon: Francisco Liriano’s health. No single pitcher is more important to the overall potential success of their rotation right now than Liriano. Sure, without Beckett, the Red Sox are in trouble, but without Liriano, this rotation has no ace, no major-league ready lefty, and no one to intimidate the powerful lineups of the AL Central. They’re not likely to be in the playoff mix this year, but they certainly won’t stand a chance with Scott Baker as their ace.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Assuming Slowey keeps his spot in the back of the rotation, he could on course for big things this season. He’s a 22-year old, well-refined pitcher, who was a standout in college at Winthrop, and since being drafted in 2005 has dominated at every stop in the minors. Included in his domination was AAA hitters last season, which Slowey posted a 107/18 K/BB rate, 1.89 ERA, and 0.96 WHIP. He struggled a bit when first coming into contact with major-league hitting, but seemingly got better with each start and finished with a solid stint. He’s got more upside than already moderately successful Scott Baker and Boof Bonser and could be the next top-of-the-line starter fielded by the Twins.
Subject to Change: If Liriano isn’t ready to go by Opening Day, it will move everyone up a spot and thus secure Slowey’s placement in the rotation. If Liriano is healthy and ready to start by April, the #5 spot could see some competition. Slowey is still the favorite to round out the rotation, but there are a few other pitching prospects coming off solid minor league showings and ready to compete for a major league job.
On The Radar: Slowey’s top competition for the 5th spot is likely to be fellow Rochester Redwing dominating pitcher, 25-year old Nick Blackburn, who went 7-3 with a 2.11 ERA in 17 AAA starts last season. Also, in the mix, Philip Humber, the prized possession of the Santana trade, who had a pedestrian season for the Mets’ AAA affiliate last year. The Twins doled out two of their starting spots to veteran free agents at the outset of last year (to Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson), and though the idea bombed, should they feel daring enough to try it again, 28-year old Zach Day could make a push to add some much needed experience.
9. Tampa Bay Rays
Tentative Rotation:
1. Scott Kazmir
2. James Shields
3. Matt Garza
4. Andrew Sonnanstine
5. Edwin Jackson
Review: The Rays’ have pieced together solid rotations for the last couple of seasons, but this may be the best rotation on paper in their franchise history. Scott Kazmir has been the centerpiece and staff ace for past three seasons and has developed into one of the best lefties in the game. Now for the first time in Kazmir’s tenure, the spot behind him is also secure as James Shields posted production right on par with Kazmir last season, with a thoroughly impressive 3.85 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a downright ridiculous near 6/1 K/BB rate. After the Rays’ 1-2 punch, the newly acquired Matt Garza will bridge to the back of the rotation, after annually ranking as the Twins’ top pitching prospect. After the “Big Three” (whom closer Troy Percival has dubbed the next Smoltz-Glavine-Avery), will be a myriad of intriguing, young arms filling out the last two spots. The favorites are currently Andrew Sonnanstine, a top prospect coming off a disappointing season where he showed very good upside and Edwin Jackson, who is building off a strong second half.
Ranking most contingent on: The back-end of the rotation not bombing. Sonnanstine showed plenty of potential, but he finished with a 5.85 ERA. Edwin Jackson finished with a 5.76. Jason Hammel finished with a 6.14, and last but not least, J.P. Howell with a 7.59. The back-end will need to improve or they’ll be putting an extreme amount of pressure on their young trio atop the rotation.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Matt Garza won’t get as much publicity leading up to the season with Kazmir approaching superstar status and Shields coming off a phenomenal season, but he’s ready to step in as the next young stud in the rotation. He quietly posted a 3.69 ERA in 15 starts last season with a 67/32 K/BB rate. He’s still a bit raw, but he’s got a strong arm, good control, and was well coached in Minnesota. He should be drafted in almost all formats as a back-end fantasy starter with potential to blossom.
Subject to Change: Andrew Sonnanstine has all but secured the fourth spot, but there are no guarantees going into spring training. His bloated ERA was mainly a result of a susceptibility to allowing the long ball more than poor stuff or lack of development, but he’ll need to look better this spring to assure his spot. The fifth spot has Edwin Jackson penciled in, mainly because the bullpen is filled and Jackson is out of options. The Rays have to find a spot on the staff for him or risk losing him on waivers, so right now, he’s the 5th by default, but that’s subject to change depending on how things play out.
On The Radar: Jason Hammel, like Sonnanstine, got an opportunity to make his debut last season, and while the numbers were subpar, the talent is there. He’ll need more time to work out the kinks, but should be the first name called if a spot opens up. J.P. Howell has continued to struggle against major league hitting, but he’s a lefty with a good pedigree and will be in the mix for the 5th spot as well. Prospects Mitch Talbot, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and James Houser all have future top-to-middle of the rotation starter written all over them, and Talbot and Niemann may even be ready for the show, but with plenty of young talent blocking their way, they’ll have to start in the minors. 10. Oakland A’sTentative Rotation:
1. Rich Harden
2. Joe Blanton
3. Chad Gaudin
4. Justin Duchscherer
5. Lenny DiNardoReview: Despite Billy Beane’s attempt to break up the team and go into a complete rebuilding mode after one season in which they were not competitive, they still have the talent to field a formiddable rotation. Like the Twins, it will hinge upon the fragile health of young ace, Rich Harden. When Harden’s healthy, he has the potential to be one of the best young pitchers in baseball, but long spurts of health have been few and far between. This year, they’ll rely on him more than ever with the departure of Dan Haren, bumping the hittable, but surprisingly successful Joe Blanton into the two hole. Behind them, sit three converted relievers, including Chad Gaudin, who made a seamless transition last year, Lenny DiNardo, whose transition wasn’t quite as smooth, and Justin Duchscherer, who will make the transition this year. All three have above-average arms, but only Gaudin has proved to have the endurance needed to make the conversion to a fulltime starter thus far.Ranking most contingent upon: Rich Harden’s health and Billy Beane’s insatiable desire to deal Joe Blanton and rival the Marlins for the youngest team in baseball. If Harden is hurt, the team has some good depth to absorb the loss and they’re used to it by now. If Blanton is gone too, things could get ugly with Gaudin as the ace.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Long before Justin Duchscherer had become one of the most reliable setup men in the AL, he was a pretty successful minor league starter, going 12-2 in AAA in 2003, his final year as a starter. He has a career ERA of 3.44, primarily as a reliever in the majors, but back from injury, he has the arm to make a successful transition. It may not be as smooth as Gaudin, who spot started on occasion before stepping into the rotation, but he’s a better pitcher with a better track record. He’s in his prime at 30 and if his success carries over, he’ll definitely be fantasy relevant as a starter.
Subject to Change: Lenny DiNardo has bounced around as the team’s 5th starter, spot starter, mop up man, and long reliever, but right now, with four righties ahead of him on the depth, he looks good for the default lefty role. If any of the A’s top prospects steps up and has a big spring, he could be moved back into a long relief role.
On The Radar: Of the top prospects looking for a big spring to usurp DiNardo, Dana Eveland may be the best bet to do so. He’s one of three top lefty prospects who hasn’t developed as quickly or successfully as the A’s have hoped, but he’s the most major league ready of the bunch. The other two, Dan Meyer, has disappointed since coming over from Atlanta and the organization may be running out of patience with him, and Dallas Braden, was rushed too quickly to the majors last season and is best suited for more seasoning at AAA. Two other lefties, newly-acquired Greg Smith (from Arizona) has plenty of upside, but only has 10 starts above AA in his career, and last year’s Rule V draftee, Jay Marshall, struggled as a converted reliever, but could be in the mix with a likely transition back to starter.
11. Chicago White Sox
Tentative Rotation:
1. Javier Vazquez
2. Mark Buerhle
3. Jose Contreras
4. John Danks
5. Gavin Floyd
Review: The White Sox top 5 starters from last year finished with pedestrian numbers across the board, including a 4.45 ERA, and continued to regress since the standout cast that led them to a World Series title three years ago. Rather than upgrade the pedestrian staff to push them back over the edge and into contention, they dealt long-time staple and innings-eater Jon Garland and replaced him with Gavin Floyd, he of significant control issues and a 6.30 lifetime ERA. Javier Vazquez quietly produced a career year as the ace and was well-complimented by Mark Buerhle’s resurgence. Jose Contreras, who was hit at a .304 clip last season will be masquerading as the #3 and followed by John Danks, who is bumped up a spot from a year ago, despite a 5.50 ERA last year. They may still be in the market for a veteran starter, but right now, they’re relying heavily on a 1-2 punch that will have difficulty matching last year’s success, a highly-hittable #3, and an inexperienced back-of-the-rotation that is still developing.
Ranking most contingent upon: The White Sox not acquiring a veteran arm to fill Garland’s void and sticking with Floyd as their #5. Floyd was once one of the game’s highly-touted prospects and he still has potential, but he was clobbered by major-league hitting again last year and though he held his own in AAA, he didn’t blow scouts away. The White Sox have been rumored to be nearing a deal with Bartolo Colon, who isn’t going to make them a contender, but would be a experienced upgrade to Floyd.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: John Danks spent last year as Chicago’s fulltime fifth starter after coming over from Texas in the Brandon McCarthy trade. Danks took down a slew of other prospects to win the job and kept his grip on it all season long despite a 5.50 season-ending ERA and allowing 28 HRs in 139.0 innings of work. Danks was the Rangers’ #1 ranked prospect by Baseball America before the trade, speaking more about the lack of talent in the Rangers’ system than Danks’ abilities. An improvement is obviously expected, but all in all, Danks doesn’t really profile as a top of the line starter and one wonders how long he would’ve lasted in the rotation if he were a righty. He’s in the perfect situation to get overhyped with a misleading promotion to the #4 spot (actually, manager Ozzie Guillen has said, as of right now, Danks is his #3 ahead of Contreras), but there are better young pitchers available in the late rounds of most drafts with significantly higher upside.
Subject to Change: The top two are secured and Contreras is assured a spot somewhere in the rotation, whether it be as the #3 or #4. Danks is the default lefty, so if the White Sox do add a veteran, it will be at the expense of Floyd, who is penciled in as the #5. The White Sox may wait until spring training starts to see how Floyd progresses before deciding on a personnel move to add a veteran.
On The Radar: Besides the entire veteran free agent pitching market, 23-year-old knuckleballer Charlie Haegar will compete against Floyd after a disappointing stint at AAA last year and may be better suited for long relief. Adam Russell is a massive-sized pitcher with a powerful arm and plenty of upside but the White Sox seem content on using him out of the bullpen for now. Other prospects such as Lance Broadway and Jack Egbert will be considered, but they’re still in need of some more minor league seasoning.
12. Kansas City Royals
Tentative Rotation:
1. Gil Meche
2. Brian Bannister
3. Zach Grienke
4. Brett Tomko
5. Jorge de la Rosa
Review: The Royals’ rotation has been in flux for the past couple of seasons, but have appeared to find some stability at the top. Gil Meche was signed to a five-year deal to take over as the staff ace in a move that left most pundits scratching their heads, but has subsequently worked out well thus far. The newly-annointed ace coming off a career year will be teamed with Brian Bannister, who finished third in the AL ROY voting last year after baffling hitters with off-speed stuff and inducing plenty of groundballs. Zach Grienke, formerly a top pitching prospect in all of baseball went from the bullpen to the rotation finding success in all roles last season and beginning to meet his potential after a tumultuous start to his career. Brett Tomko was signed to fill the four hole, provide experience and depth, and transition to whichever young pitcher fills the #5 spot and default lefty role.
Ranking most contingent upon: The belief that both their top two pitchers peaked last season and Brett Tomko belongs in the bullpen. Meche and Bannister gave the Royals’ the best one-two punch they’ve had in a long time, but they may have both hit their ceilings last year. Meche went from an innings-eater to ace after a mediocre career and Bannister, while having success at all stops thus far, isn’t the type of pitcher who will dominate hitters on a consistent basis. If I’m wrong, this rotation could be in the top-half of the league, but with the top two coming off career years and question marks littered throughout the back half, this is where they belong for now.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Brian Bannister always profiled as a major-league starter, but not many ever expected him to be much more than a #3. He has impeccable control and doesn’t give hitters much to hit, but he’s not overpowering nor does he possess great stuff. Good pitchers have gotten by with less, but he’s relies a lot on the defense behind him and will struggle to maintain a 2/1 K/BB rate. He’s a solid pitcher, but his upside is limited and so is his fantasy value with 96 career strikeouts in 200+ IP.
Subject to Change: Manager Trey Hillman said he assured Tomko of the #4 spot when they signed him and the top three have already been set, so that leaves a wide-open battle for the #5 spot. Currently a favorite after falling out of favor with Buddy Bell last year, Jorge de la Rosa is a decent lefty, but his future could be in the bullpen. He could be swapped with countless pitchers including veteran non-roster invitees, top pitching prospects, or converted relievers, such as lefty John Bale.
On The Radar: The Royals as mentioned may attempt to convert the 33-year-old Bale into a starter after a solid season of relief in his first year back in the majors since 2007. If that doesn’t work, #1 overall pick Luke Hochevar could be advanced early into the rotation, though the club would like him to open in AAA. Hochevar is already 24 and while he could hold his own in the majors, some more minor league refinement could put him on track for stardom as early as next season. Another prospect, Tyler Lumsden is a refined lefty who had a setback in AAA last year, but the Royals added him to the 40-man roster to protect him and are high on his potential. If no young stud emerges, plenty of veterans are being brought in to push the youngsters. Hideo Nomo, Brian Lawrence, Mike Maroth, and Brandon Duckworth lead an accomplished cast of intriguing non-roster invitees.
13. Texas Rangers
Tentative Rotation:
1. Kevin Millwood
2. Vincente Padilla
3. Jason Jennings
4. Brandon McCarthy
5. Kason Gabbard
Review: The Rangers have a good mix of experienced veterans, middle-of-the-pack post-prospect arms, and developing, young pitchers. The only thing their rotations lack is…an ace. Kevin Millwood and Vincente Padilla both took major steps backwards last year and their lack of success atop the rotation may be most responsible for the Rangers disappointing season. Brandon McCarthy also failed to live up to the hype and will remain as a back-of-the-rotation starter. They added Jason Jennings at a good price to step into the #3 spot. Whiel Jennings has shown the potential to be a good #2, he also has recently shown a propensity to implode and look like a #5. Speaking of #5, the final spot for the Rangers is open for competition and with a lefty likely to round it out, Kason Gabbard, who had a strong showing last year could be back for more. The bottomline is that the rotation has potential, but its prospects of success would look much better with everyone bumped down a notch.
Ranking most contingent upon: the top four’s struggles in 2007 continuing. Millwood, Padilla, Jennings, and McCarthy all fell noticeably short of expectations last year and some fell short of some fantasy owners’ worst nightmares. Rebounds are expected, but enthusiasm has to be tempered as Padilla and Millwood are already in their 30’s, Jennings is coming off arm surgery, and McCarthy had numerous minor injuries and has never really dominated hitters since graduating from A+ ball.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: If any of the Rangers’ top four starters is to rebound significantly, Brandon McCarthy may be the likeliest to do so. He lacks the track record of the other three, but his injuries last season were fairly minor and he’s still only 24. Last year was also his first full season as a starter and he showed strides of improvement once he acquiesced himself to a new role on a new organization and showed good staying power as a young pitcher. He saw his ERA drop two full runs over the second half of the season and allowed only 3 HRs in 41.2 Post All-Star Break innings pitched. He’ll have little pressure on him with the rotation stacked with veterans above and his spot secure and continued improvement is very likely for the potential-laden McCarthy.
Subject to Change: Kason Gabbard did everything he could to win a spot in the Red Sox rotation in seven starts last year, but ended up being the odd man out anyway. He made 8 starts as a Ranger posting a 5.58 ERA, but his ERA was bloated by two poor starts to finish the year (possibly due to fatigue). As a matter of fact, he allowed 3 ER or less in his first six starts as a Ranger. The moral of the story: Gabbard may be the only one not guaranteed a spot in the rotation, but barring a free agent signing, the tentative rotation should carry over to Opening Day.
On The Radar: John Rheinecker (4-3, 5.36), Kameron Loe (6-11, 5.36), Mike Wood (3-2, 5.33), Robinson Tejada (5-9, 6.61), and A.J. Murray (1-2, 4.50) all made spot starts and filled in as long relievers as the injuries mounted last season and all will stick around this year to battle Gabbard for the final spot in the rotation. All are entering the post-prospect phases of the career year and while some have had some past success, none of them failed to stand out last year. Wood and Loe seem to project better as long relievers and Murray’s future role is still up in the air. Rheinecker fits the bill as a reliable fifth starter and he’s also a lefty, likely making him Gabbard’s top competitor this spring.
14. Baltimore Orioles
Tentative Rotation:
1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Daniel Cabrera
3. Adam Loewen
4. Steve Trachsel
5. Matt Albers
Review: The Orioles arguably had the worst rotation in baseball going into the year even with stud lefty Erik Bedard as their ace. With Bedard departed for Seattle and no major league ready talent to fill the void, there is no argument. Jeremy Guthrie had a feel-good season last year, finding his groove with the Orioles after five disappointing years in the Indians’ organization, but has a long way to go before he can be considered a true ace. He’ll have to do for now, despite allowing 22 home runs over a 19-start period toward the end of the season, but finishing with solid peripherals across the board. He’ll be followed by perhaps the most erratic, unstable, enigmatic pitcher of all, Daniel Cabrera, who has the stuff of an ace but the reliability of a mop-up man. He’s plenty talented but his inconsistencies best suit him in the back of a rotation. Adam Loewen will likely find a spot in the middle after missing the entire season after six solid starts to open the year. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. Steve Trachsel was signed likely as the veteran stopgap, and there are about a dozen viable prospects who will compete for the fifth spot. Every spot in the rotation should be up for grabs and the only thing the Orioles can hope is competition bringing out the best in everyone.
Ranking most contingent upon: The Orioles’ prospects still at least a year away from beginning to reach their potential. The Orioles already had some intriguing arms on the farm, but added a whole bunch more in a series of off-season acquisitions in an attempt to rebuild the organization. Their young arms should get plenty of opportunities this year, but many are still in the early stages of development.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Jeremy Guthrie is a reasonable pick to regress, but Adam Loewen is a better bet to succeed if the current reports are true about him being back at 100%. He posted a 3.56 ERA in six starts before season-ending surgery last year and could’ve given the Orioles a nasty pair of lefties with Bedard had he stayed healthy. He still has control issues to figure out (as indicated by his 22/26 K/BB rate last season), but he’s got the most long-term ace potential of any current major league starter and is already being considered for the Opening Day start. He could develop as Bedard did with a couple of solid seasons under his belt before breaking out and 2008 looks to be the start of said development. He’s at least worth a late-round flier in standard-to-deep leagues right now.
Subject to Change: The entire rotation. Guthrie could be supplanted by Loewen as the ace. Cabrera could be shifted down toward the bottom if he’s still a head case in spring trainging. Trachsel isn’t even on the 40-man roster at this point so his spot in the rotation is still nothing but speculation. Anyone could fill the fifth spot and we may not even know who until the season starts. The entire rotation is in flux and nothing is concrete right now except that Guthrie and Loewen (if healthy) will be in there somewhere toward the top.
On The Radar: The Orioles acquired three pitching prospects for Miguel Tejada. Matt Albers is healthy and on track to secure a spot despite a tough time against major league hitting last season. Troy Patton, probably the best of the bunch, is being brought along slowly due to a shoulder injury. Finally, Dennis Sarfate, the oldest at 26, is out of minor-league options and the Orioles would prefer to use him out of the bullpen. The Mariners also sent over three pitching prospects, none of which have any immediate fantasy relevance. A laundry list of in-house pitching prospects round out the remaining candidates including: lefty Brian Burres (6-8, 5.95), lefty Garrett Olson (1-3, 7.79), Hayden Penn, who has been nothing short of shellacked in his 14-start major league career, low-upside 6’5’’ righty Jim Johnson, still raw Radhames Liz, and 22-year old Rule V draftee Randor Bierd.
James O’Donnell
Creator & Co-Writer
