On Thursday, February 21st, we kicked off the 2008 Fantasy Baseball season by ranking the American League rotations. Today, in the second article of the series, we follow-up with the National League:
National League Starting Rotations
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tentative Rotation:
1. Brad Penny
2. Jason Schmidt
3. Derek Lowe
4. Hiroki Kuroda
5. Chad Billingsley 
Review: The rotation may lack a lefty, but when everyone is healthy, the Dodgers are loaded with four veteran arms, all capable of being top-of-the-rotation pitchers. The fifth, Chad Billingsley, is a 22-year old future All-star, coming off his first full-season workload in the majors that resulted in a 12-5 record, 3.31 ERA, and 141/66 K/BB rate. In most rotations, Billingsley would fit in as a #2/#3. In Los Angeles, he’s the #5, who will have to wait a long time before he gets his shot as an ace. He can thank last year’s All-star game starter Brad Penny (16-4, 3.03), Derek Lowe, who’s averaging 15 wins over the last six seasons and has three straight sub-4.00 ERA campaigns, and rapidly-rehabbing Jason Schmidt, who prior to last year’s injury-riddled season, was considered a bona fide ace and a top five starter in the National League. Not to mention, the Dodgers also went out an signed Japanese standout Hiroki Kuroda, a 32-year old in his peak, who could’ve been signed as a #2/#3 starter elsewhere.
Ranking most contingent upon: The health of Jason Schmidt and the legitimacy of Hiroki Kuroda’s success in Japan. Schmidt underwent season-ending right shoulder surgery last June and the initial timetable had him getting off to a delayed start this year. In his first bullpen session of the spring, he proved to be well ahead of schedule, impressing new manager Joe Torre, and making the notion of him being ready for Opening Day a likely reality. Kuroda, the second star starter to come over from Japan in the last two years, was 91-81 with a career 3.77 ERA in 10 seasons, but Daisuke Matsuzaka was 93-45 with a 2.81 career ERA before coming over and he only finished with a 4.40 ERA in his debut season. Kuroda is a more low-upside, low-risk pitcher who could get off to a better start, but will have a lot to prove on his $10,000,000+ a year salary. Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Hiroki Kuroda doesn’t possess the same electric stuff as Matsuzaka did going into last season, but he’s a bit older, a bit more experienced and a bit more refined. He doesn’t have the ace potential Dice-K does, but with a good mix of pitches and a high baseball IQ, combined with pitching in a pitcher-friendly home park in the pitcher-friendliest division in baseball, it could result in a similar season to Dice-K’s 15 wins and 4.40 ERA a year ago or better.
Subject to Change: Penny, Lowe, Kuroda, and Billingsley are all but assured of a starting role and their spots within the rotation. The wildcard is Jason Schmidt. The Dodgers were half-expecting to open the season without him and their projected rotation prior to his first bullpen session had veteran Esteban Loiaza as the interim fill-in at #5 until Schmidt was ready to return. If Schmidt is healthy, this is all but concrete; if not, Loiaza should be the favorite to fill out the rotation for now.
On The Radar: Esteban Loiaza is the favorite because he’s a solid veteran pitcher with enough left in the tank to maintain a starting job and should be a capable fifth starter fill-in. The Dodgers didn’t invite any of their top pitching prospects to training camp this spring and without any intriguing arms out of the bullpen, as long as Loiaza can hold off a few interesting, but non-threatening non-roster invitees, he’s the only one legitimately on the radar if Schmidt isn’t ready to go.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tentative Rotation:
1. Brandon Webb
2. Randy Johnson
3. Dan Haren
4. Doug Davis
5. Micah Owings
Review: If Schmidt isn’t healthy to open the year, the Diamondbacks could easily have the best and deepest rotation in baseball. Of course, after acquiring stud 26-year-old Dan Haren to give them arguably the best 1-2 punch in baseball with one of the game’s most reliable pitchers and 2006 Cy Young Award winner, Brandon Webb, their success may also hinge on the health of a rehabbing veteran. Randy Johnson may be one of the greatest of all-time, but in order to provide a bridge between righties Haren and Webb, he’ll need to show his 44-year-old weathered arm, body, and frame can still handle a full-season workload. He showed he’s still effective when he’s healthy, but the emphasis is on when he’s healthy, which wasn’t the case for the majority of last season. Doug Davis, a prototypical unglamorous but solid lefty, and Micah Owings, coming off a strong rookie debut round out a talented rotation.
Ranking most contingent upon: Randy Johnson’s health. The Diamondbacks would like to interject a lefty between Webb and Haren in the two-hole and Davis doesn’t have the arm to hold down the spot. If Johnson isn’t 100%, it moves every one up a spot and the rotation doesn’t look quite as good on paper. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted by James 