On Thursday, February 21st, we kicked off the 2008 Fantasy Baseball season by ranking the American League rotations. Today, in the second article of the series, we follow-up with the National League:
National League Starting Rotations
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tentative Rotation:
1. Brad Penny
2. Jason Schmidt
3. Derek Lowe
4. Hiroki Kuroda
5. Chad Billingsley 
Review: The rotation may lack a lefty, but when everyone is healthy, the Dodgers are loaded with four veteran arms, all capable of being top-of-the-rotation pitchers. The fifth, Chad Billingsley, is a 22-year old future All-star, coming off his first full-season workload in the majors that resulted in a 12-5 record, 3.31 ERA, and 141/66 K/BB rate. In most rotations, Billingsley would fit in as a #2/#3. In Los Angeles, he’s the #5, who will have to wait a long time before he gets his shot as an ace. He can thank last year’s All-star game starter Brad Penny (16-4, 3.03), Derek Lowe, who’s averaging 15 wins over the last six seasons and has three straight sub-4.00 ERA campaigns, and rapidly-rehabbing Jason Schmidt, who prior to last year’s injury-riddled season, was considered a bona fide ace and a top five starter in the National League. Not to mention, the Dodgers also went out an signed Japanese standout Hiroki Kuroda, a 32-year old in his peak, who could’ve been signed as a #2/#3 starter elsewhere.
Ranking most contingent upon: The health of Jason Schmidt and the legitimacy of Hiroki Kuroda’s success in Japan. Schmidt underwent season-ending right shoulder surgery last June and the initial timetable had him getting off to a delayed start this year. In his first bullpen session of the spring, he proved to be well ahead of schedule, impressing new manager Joe Torre, and making the notion of him being ready for Opening Day a likely reality. Kuroda, the second star starter to come over from Japan in the last two years, was 91-81 with a career 3.77 ERA in 10 seasons, but Daisuke Matsuzaka was 93-45 with a 2.81 career ERA before coming over and he only finished with a 4.40 ERA in his debut season. Kuroda is a more low-upside, low-risk pitcher who could get off to a better start, but will have a lot to prove on his $10,000,000+ a year salary. Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Hiroki Kuroda doesn’t possess the same electric stuff as Matsuzaka did going into last season, but he’s a bit older, a bit more experienced and a bit more refined. He doesn’t have the ace potential Dice-K does, but with a good mix of pitches and a high baseball IQ, combined with pitching in a pitcher-friendly home park in the pitcher-friendliest division in baseball, it could result in a similar season to Dice-K’s 15 wins and 4.40 ERA a year ago or better.
Subject to Change: Penny, Lowe, Kuroda, and Billingsley are all but assured of a starting role and their spots within the rotation. The wildcard is Jason Schmidt. The Dodgers were half-expecting to open the season without him and their projected rotation prior to his first bullpen session had veteran Esteban Loiaza as the interim fill-in at #5 until Schmidt was ready to return. If Schmidt is healthy, this is all but concrete; if not, Loiaza should be the favorite to fill out the rotation for now.
On The Radar: Esteban Loiaza is the favorite because he’s a solid veteran pitcher with enough left in the tank to maintain a starting job and should be a capable fifth starter fill-in. The Dodgers didn’t invite any of their top pitching prospects to training camp this spring and without any intriguing arms out of the bullpen, as long as Loiaza can hold off a few interesting, but non-threatening non-roster invitees, he’s the only one legitimately on the radar if Schmidt isn’t ready to go.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tentative Rotation:
1. Brandon Webb
2. Randy Johnson
3. Dan Haren
4. Doug Davis
5. Micah Owings
Review: If Schmidt isn’t healthy to open the year, the Diamondbacks could easily have the best and deepest rotation in baseball. Of course, after acquiring stud 26-year-old Dan Haren to give them arguably the best 1-2 punch in baseball with one of the game’s most reliable pitchers and 2006 Cy Young Award winner, Brandon Webb, their success may also hinge on the health of a rehabbing veteran. Randy Johnson may be one of the greatest of all-time, but in order to provide a bridge between righties Haren and Webb, he’ll need to show his 44-year-old weathered arm, body, and frame can still handle a full-season workload. He showed he’s still effective when he’s healthy, but the emphasis is on when he’s healthy, which wasn’t the case for the majority of last season. Doug Davis, a prototypical unglamorous but solid lefty, and Micah Owings, coming off a strong rookie debut round out a talented rotation.
Ranking most contingent upon: Randy Johnson’s health. The Diamondbacks would like to interject a lefty between Webb and Haren in the two-hole and Davis doesn’t have the arm to hold down the spot. If Johnson isn’t 100%, it moves every one up a spot and the rotation doesn’t look quite as good on paper.Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Doug Davis bounced around with three different teams in 2003 before emerging as a top-of-the-line lefty for the Brewers in 2004. Since ‘04, though, Davis has gradually regressed into a middle-of-the-pack, low-strikeout pitcher. A good filler on rotations, but a borderline fantasy starter, despite a relatively high ADP in recent seasons. His WHIP has climbed from 1.30 in 2005 to 1.51 in 2006 to a full-season career-worst 1.59 in 2007. Similarly, opposing hitters went from hitting .235 against him in 2005 to .266 in 2006 to an uninspiring .281 last season, and the hitter-friendly confines of Arizona won’t do him any favors again in 2008.
Subject to Change: If Randy Johnson isn’t healthy, though he appears to be on track to be 100% for Opening Day, Haren will bump up to the #2, Davis will fill the lefty spot in the middle of the rotation, and the back-end will likely filled by two high-potential youngsters, Micah Owings and Yusmeiro Petit. Webb is set at the top and Haren, Davis, and Owings are almost certain to follow at some point in that order, the rest is dependent on Johnson’s health.
On The Radar: Yusmeiro Petit, going 3-4 with a 4.58 with a 2/1 K/BB rate in a short fill-in stint last season looked like he’s finally start to meet his potential. He could be back-end fixture for countless teams in the league, but with the starting pitching depth in Arizona, he’ll likely have to fight for a job or seek a trade. He won’t just be fighting with the veterans for a rotation spot, he’ll also have to do battle with versatile 24-year old Edgar Gonzalez (5.03 ERA in 12 starts and 20 relief appearances in ‘07), 2006 1st rounder Max Scherzer who seamlessly stepped into AA-ball after a holdout last year, and intriguing lefty prospect Greg Smith.
3. New York Mets
Tentative Rotation:
1. Johan Santana
2. Pedro Martinez
3. John Maine
4. Oliver Perez
5. Orlando Hernandez
Review: A similar, but superior, situation to the Rangers’ rotation, the Mets starters looked good on paper, but they lacked a bona fide ace. Perhaps it was a combination of the horrifically disappointing conclusion to last season along with Mike Pelfrey’s continued lack of development, but whatever the reason, Omar Minaya was motivated to address the top of the rotation and did so by betting a good chunk of the farm on the game’s best pitcher, Johan Santana. Santana gives them their best staff ace since Tom Seaver, a dominant lefty, youth, and most importantly, stability, endurance, and good health. He’ll be teamed with a regressing Pedro Martinez, who could still prove to be one of the game’s best if healthy, and a pair of young pitchers in John Maine and Oliver Perez who have made tremendous strides of improvement since joining the organization. Assuming his arm and body don’t fall apart, 38-to-50 year old Orlando Hernandez, coming off a surprisingly effective 2007 campaign, will round out the rotation. Ranking most contingent upon: Johan Santana holding up under the pressures of playing in New York and Pedro Martinez staying healthy. There shouldn’t be any doubts about Santana’s make-up, but he’ll follow in the footsteps of many former All-Stars who crumbled in the spotlight of New York City, so the question should at least be raised (though have little or no bearing on 2008 expectations). Martinez, even with the addition of Santana, is still an invaluable part of the staff. He showed he’s still on the top of his game when he’s fully healthy, going 3-1 with 32 strikeouts to 7 walks and a 2.57 ERA in five post-injury starts to close out the year.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: El Duque is an antique, but he still was an effective fantasy option at time last year. He’s generously listed at 38 years old, leaving his age is up for debate, but not his fragility. He’s already hampered to start the spring and only made 24 starts last year. He was one of the most unhittable pitchers in the NL with a .206 BAA, thirty three points below his career BAA. His ability to baffle hitters baffled many scouts and as surprising as his success was, it would be even more surprising if he could somehow repeat it in 2008.
Subject to Change: Pedro appears to have no tentative injury concerns, so the top four should be all but set in stone. The fifth spot is El Duque’s to lose, but he’s already being hampered by a bunion, of all things. He’s coming off a good season, his arm is well rested, and provides a good veteran presence in the back of the rotation, so barring injury or an immaculate spring by a pitching prospect, the unit is pretty inflexible as of right now.
On The Radar: 2005 1st rounder Mike Pelfrey was expected be a staple in the rotation by this time, but in 17 career major league starts, he’s 5-9 with a 5.55 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and .300 BAA. He showed good promise in the low levels of the minors but even struggled in AAA last season, where he’s bound to repeat again in 2008. The Mets’ other top starting prospects were dealt in the Santana trade, but spot-starter and long reliever Jorge Sosa held his own in 14 starts last year, and as unreliable he is from season-to-season would probably be the best fit for the fifth spot right now should an injury strike. Non-roster invitee, Tony Armas, Jr., could fight for a spot, too, but is coming off a hideous season with the Pirates and is a long shot to win a major-league job.
4. San Francisco Giants
Tentative Rotation:
1. Barry Zito
2. Matt Cain
3. Tim Lincecum
4. Noah Lowry
5. Kevin Correia
Review: Not only is the Giants’ rotation in the upper-echelon on sheer talent alone, but all five tentative starters are under 30 and all but Zito were born in the 80’s. The rotation already has the tools to be the backbone of a competitive squad, an improved lineup behind them permitting, and they could get even better this year. Barry Zito tops the rotation, not because of his win total, strikeout rate, or ERA, but because of his salary. Nevertheless, Zito may not be worth the money he got (who is?), but last year was a career-worst year, and his lifetime 3.67 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and near 2/1 K/BB rate still merit ace consideration. He’s flanked by the team’s most effective pitcher, Matt Cain, who has shown improvement over each of the last three years and has established himself as a top-of-the-line starter. Second-year fireballer and future ace, Tim Lincecum, continues his meteoric rise through the organization after a standout rookie season. A pair of low-profile, home-grown, solid arms in Noah Lowry and Kevin Correia round out the rotation. Lowry had another quietly successful year in 2007 and Correia will make the jump to the rotation after bouncing around in numerous roles as a successful utility pitcher in seasons past.
Ranking most contingent upon: The continued development of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum. The 2002 and 2006 first round picks respectively both had their ups and downs in the rotation last year, but both improved in the second-half and have set the bar high for 2008 expectations. Cain has been refined into a sturdy #2, but as indicated by 7-16 record, he still has work to do. Lincecum made 24 starts in 2007, in 12 before the All-Star break he had an ERA of 4.63, in 12 after the All-Star break, he had a 3.39 ERA. Anything short of a sub-4.00 ERA and 1 K/IP strikeout rate could be considered a disappointment in 2008.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Kevin Correia has been an organizational soldier and utility pitcher for the Giants since his2003 debut. He’s spot-started, mopped up, set up, and has done everything the team has asked, often on very short notice. He’s also been effective in all roles, sporting a career 4.03 ERA. Now, with a defined role and a chance at a full-time spot in the rotation, he could put up Noah Lowry-esque undervalued success as a starter. He’s got a good make-up, can strikeout the occasional batter, and has good career peripherals, projecting well as a full-time starter and fantasy surprise.
Subject to Change: Noah Lowry has been involved in a few trade rumors this offseason, but nothing serious has been discussed yet. Kevin Correia has spent his short career in a utility role, but manager Bruce Bochy has anointed him the leading candidate for the fifth spot by a comfortable margin over top prospect, Jonathan Sanchez. If Lowry is dealt, Sanchez could be plugged in, but if no personnel moves are made, it’s likely Correia will stick in the five hole.
On The Radar: 24-year-old Jonathan Sanchez will open the year again as the Giants’ prized pitching prospect, but all signs point to him as the current odd man out in the rotation competition. He was limited to 23.2 IP in the minors last year (where he more than held his own with a 1.90 ERA) before the Giants’ bullpen was so decimated by injury that they had no choice but to plug him in. He gave up 57 hits in 52 innings with a unimpressive 5.88 ERA, but like Fausto Carmona in 2006, he clearly looked uncomfortable and unprepared for a bullpen role. Other than Sanchez, there are no other viable candidates for a rotation spot on the horizon.
5. San Diego Padres
Tentative Rotation:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Young
3. Greg Maddux
4. Randy Wolf
5. Justin Germano
Review: Jake Peavy, revived his status as a top 3 pitcher in the NL after a hiccup in 2006 by dominating all hitters without prejudice and winning the Cy Young Award last season. Peavy was joined by the monstrous 6′10” Chris Young, who after a 8-3 record and 2.00 ERA at the All-Star break, gave the Padres best top of the rotation in baseball last season. Young then suffered oblique and back injuries in July and wasn’t the same pitcher when he returned, going 0-5 with a 6.00 ERA in August and September. With a new workout regiment this spring to prevent this from reoccurring, Young will be back as the #2 and slotted just ahead of all-time great, Greg Maddux, who still showed signs of life as a top-to-middle-of-the-rotation starter, winning 14 games, boasting a 4/1 K/BB rate, and stepping up as a solid #2 down the stretch and improving after the All-Star Break. The rotation is rounded out by the talented, but oft injured lefty, Randy Wolf, and a pretty open fifth spot, though it doesn’t mean that it won’t be filled by a quality arm, which the Padres have plenty of in the organization.
Ranking most contingent upon: Chris Young’s return to dominance. There was a point last season, around late July, when Young had a 1.82 ERA and was arguably the second-best pitcher on both the Padres and the entire National League. The back injuries set him back, affecting his motion and delivery from his 6′10” frame. Young not only wasn’t his dominating self upon returning, but was a liability down the stretch. Back at 100% to start 2008, his return to dominance is key to the success of the rotation.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Justin Germano was a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners upon earning a spot in the rotation last season, but his success didn’t last for very long. His season-ending numbers, 7 wins, 4.46 ERA, and 78/40 K/BB ratio, look good on paper and offer good promise from a 24-year old, but they should be taken with restraint. Germano was 2-9 in 14 starts from July on after a hot start and hitters seem to catch up to him. He allowed 10 homers in his final 79 innings and even lost his spot in the rotation in September. He has some upside, but in the long run, he projects best as a long reliever and spot starter.
Subject to Change: Justin Germano has a tenuous grip as the fifth starter favorite and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Padres opted to go a different direction for the job and use him out of the bullpen. Peavy, Young, and Maddux are all locked in as the 1-2-3, and all signs point to a healthy Wolf holding down the fort and the lefty in the rotation and the #4 starter. The only thing that’s up for consideration right now, barring any unforeseen injuries, is the final spot in the rotation.
On The Radar: Clay Hensley, like Germano, spent a good chunk of time in the Padres’ major-league rotation last year, failing to impress anyone with a 6.84 ERA in thirteen appearances. Hensley was a key piece of the rotation during their playoff run in 2006 and while he has a tad more upside than Germano, he too, seems destined for a bullpen job and even more so than his counterpart right now. Mark Prior was given an incentive-laden one-year deal if he can kick the injury bug and make an impact. He’s started throwing, but the best-case scenario is a return in May. With Prior’s history, though, it’s not worth considering him in the mix for a spot in a rotation until he’s officially healthy and cleared to play.
6. Milwaukee Brewers
Tentative Rotation:
1. Ben Sheets
2. Jeff Suppan
3. Yovani Gallardo
4. Chris Capuano
5. Dave Bush
Review: The Brewers strength isn’t in an individual’s superstardom to lead the staff, though Ben Sheets has the capabilities of a top-10 pitcher when healthy, nor is it due to a reliable set of accomplished veterans. It’s due to a vast wealth of depth in an era where most team’s starting pitching pools are severely thin. Sheets is a capable ace, as he shown when he’s 100%, Suppan isn’t the ideal #2, but he’s a stable, smart, experienced pitcher and teams could do worse than using him at the front end of a rotation. Following the veterans are super-prospect and strikeout phenom Yovani Gallardo, who blew major league hitters away and allowing no earned runs in four of his last eight starts. The final two spots are open for competition between Chris Capuano and David Bush, solid rotational stalwarts of the last two years, Carlos Villanueva, utility pitcher extraordinaire, the unglamorous Claudio Vargas (the only candidate out of minor league options), and untested rookie lefty Manny Parra. All have the potential to start or be traded to start elsewhere if they don’t fit into the rotation.
Ranking most contingent upon: Another healthy season from Ben Sheets. The back-end of the rotation could be revamped if they decide to part with one of their low-upside starters (Chris Capuano, David Bush, or Claudio Vargas), but with their depth, the effect would be minimal on the rotation as a whole. The biggest factor for the rotation is whether or not Ben Sheets can hold up for a full-season and give them a dominating, reliable veteran to lead the staff.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Carlos Villanueva has been outshined and out-publicized by Yovani Gallardo’s phenomenal stuff, but he’s developed into a very impressive young pitcher himself. Last year, he opened as a quality reliever, eating up multiple innings at a time before too frequent usage resulted in temporarily wearing him down and an ugly implosion in August that hurt his full-season numbers. He came back and made five starts in September, going at least five innings in all five and posting a 2.10 ERA over that span. The Brewers called him their most valuable pitcher last year and whatever role he fills in 2008, he’ll offer good fantasy value.
Subject to Change: Sheets and Suppan have secured their spots at the top of the rotation, but the rest is to be determined. For certain, Gallardo will be in there somewhere and conventional wisdom has him as the #3 starter. The last two spots are wide-open with five viable candidates. Penciled in are Bush and Capuano as they last held those spots, but they’re as likely to be dealt or optioned to the minors as they are to resecure them as of right now.
On The Radar: As mentioned, youngsters Villanueva and Parra will be competing for rotation spots after strong 2007 campaigns as will 29-year old Claudio Vargas, who went 11-6 with a 5.09 ERA, mainly used as the fifth starter last season. The only other name worth mentioning at this point is 6′5” 220 lb. lefty, Zach Jackson, who had a mediocre season at AAA last year, but is not in serious contention for a major league job at this time.
7. Philadelphia Phillies
Tentative Rotation:
1. Cole Hamels
2. Brett Myers
3. Kyle Kendrick
4. Adam Eaton
5. Jamie Moyer
Review: Failing to address the back-end of the rotation, the Phillies will rely heavily one of the games’ best, young 1-2 punches. Cole Hamels established himself as a bona fide ace in his first full-season last year, striking out 177 to 43 walks, winning 15 games, posting a 3.39 ERA, dominating both home and away, and lowering his ERA a full run in the second half. He was also the linchpin of the rotation and shouldered a big load when Brett Myers assumed the role of closer. Myers is back in the rotation this year to form a tandem with the budding superstar, Hamels, and at age 27, could just be entering his peak as well. These two have unlimited potential, but after that, it gets a bit shaky. Kyle Kendrick filled in admirably as a rookie, but with astonishingly low strikeout rates and a relatively high BAA, he’ll need to make adjustments to duplicate last season’s success. The back-end is comprised of free agent bust Adam Eaton, whose tools still haven’t transformed into on-the-field results at age 30, and the oldest player in baseball under a major-league contract, in Jamie Moyer.
Ranking most contingent upon: Brett Myers re-establishing success as a starting pitcher. In 2005-06, Myers was the staff ace, going 25-15, averaging just shy of 200 strikeouts, and posting two sub-4.00 ERAs. Last year, he got off to a slow start and was plagued by injury forcing him to assume the role of closer. He filled in nicely in the role by season’s end, but will now be relied upon to return to top-tier starting form, or the Phillies could have four question marks in their rotation going into 2008.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Adam Eaton was nice enough to stay healthy the entire season en route to earning $8 million for his 6.29 ERA, but people still haven’t given up on him. His contract is an albatross, which explains why he’s still a starter in Philadelphia and it’s time people realize he’s never going to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. He’s as susceptible to home runs as anyone and has to make half his starts in a boombox stadium, already putting him at a disadvantage. If goes well, he could be a double-digit winner with a modest ERA, but with all the risks and continual disappointment, the rewards don’t merit risking a draft pick on him until he shows some tangible signs of improvement.
Subject to Change: Hamels is the ace, Myers is second in command. Kendrick, Moyer, and Eaton all seem to have secured spots in the rotation, but their sequential order could be shaken up. Eaton seems best suited as the #4, which could just leave the 45-year old Moyer to duke it out with the 22-year old Kendrick for the #3 spot.
On The Radar: There’s no shortage of young, potential starters to fill a void if injuries strike again in 2008, but none of them offer a noteworthy combination of reliability, upside, and staying power. J.D. Durbin re-established his mid-level prospect status in 18 solid appearances for the Phillies last year after giving up 7 ER in less than an inning with the Diamondback before getting cut. Scott Mathieson showed some promise in 2006, but underwent Tommy John surgery and missed nearly all of 2007 and is still in the midst of a gradual rehab process. Zach Segovia and J.A. Happ are two prized homegrown prospects with good upside, but both still appear to be about a year away from fulltime major league duty. Finally, the Phillies inked Kris Benson to a minor-league deal after he missed all of 2007. He was never a top-of-the-rotation starter, but he’s still capable of filling a back-end role at age 33 and if he is back at full-strength, the signing could be a boon.
8. Atlanta Braves
Tentative Rotation:
1. John Smoltz
2. Chuck James
3. Tim Hudson
4. Tom Glavine
5. Jair Jurrjens
Review: Last season, the Braves had their ace in John Smoltz, their consistent and effective #2 in Tim Hudson, and their budding star lefty in Chuck James at the top of the rotation. The problem was the back-end was a disaster. This year, the Braves feel more confident in their supporting cast, bringing back longtime Brave and future Hall-of-Fame, Tom Glavine, and handing the keys to the 5th spot to up-and-comer Jair Jurrjens. Glavine is still a capable pitcher and a solid #4 as many may forget after memories of a strong summer were erased with a complete implosion at season’s end. Jurrjens is still a bit of an unknown commodity, but comes highly touted by both the Tigers and Braves organizations and has little left to prove in the minors with a career 3.21 ERA in 84 starts.
Ranking most contingent upon: Tom Glavine’s late season meltdown a product of being overworked and not a rapidly-declining skill set. Reasonable expectations don’t have Jurrjens doing that much better than the mess of fifth starters used last season. The revamping of the back-end of the rotation will be reliant on Glavine providing good, week-to-week, stable veteran productivity. The majority of Glavine’s numbers were relatively unchanged prior to and after the All-Star break, the notable exception being a 28 point jump in BAA and his innings per start dipping more than a half-inning. He’ll need to be the 2007 pre All-Star version of Tom Glavine to help turn this rotation around for all of 2008.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Chuck James saw his ERA jump by a half-run in 2007 and all in all, had a disappointing sophomore season. He showed flashes of brilliance and had a few hot streaks, but struggled with inconsistency at times, looked lost. He was solid for most of the year and a dreadful August really put a damper on his final numbers. He’s not on par with Smoltz or Hudson, but he’s better than last year’s disappointing 11-10 record and 4.24 ERA.
Subject to Change: The top four have secured their spots in the rotation, and while Smoltz is the ace, the next three spots could be filled in a variety of orders. In order to ensure alternating lefties and righties, either Glavine or James will need to be bumped ahead of the practical #2, Hudson. Whether Cox chooses the veteran or the up-and-comer or if he just sticks with Hudson and chooses not to alternate is yet to be seen at this time. Also, Jurrjens is the favorite for the fifth spot right now, but his ability to maintain the job will be dependent on a solid spring.
On The Radar: It’s hard to consider someone who hasn’t pitched in almost three years as someone seriously on the radar, but before Mike Hampton had his latest setback, he was considered the favorite to the #5 spot. Hampton is still rehabbing a hamstring injury and there is currently no timetable for his return. Jo-Jo Reyes, a 22-year old lefty, will be in the mix, but the Braves didn’t like what they saw in 10 major league starts from him last year, and though he’s older, he’s not as major-league ready as Jurrjens. Buddy Carlyle is still on the roster after a feel-good, relatively-effective 2007 helped him make his first start since 1999, but with everyone healthy, he’s best suited back in the minors. The Braves also acquired former Yankee prospect Matt DeSalvo this offseason after he was surpassed by superior talent, but he looks like he’ll be minor league fodder for now.
9. Chicago Cubs
Tentative Rotation:
1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Ted Lilly
3. Rich Hill
4. Jon Lieber
5. Ryan Dempster
Review: The Cubs, like the aforementioned Braves, have a good amount of reliability in their top three starters, but after injuries and underperformance last season, they’re looking to shake up the back-end of the rotation. Carlos Zambrano was a little rocky at time early on, but settled down, finishing with an ERA just under 4.00 (3.95), and posting a career-high 18 wins. He posted his lowest full-season strikeout total and highest full-season WHIP, but he was still a top ten pitcher in the NL. He’s flanked by a pair of solid lefties: Ted Lilly, coming off back-to-back 15 win seasons and career-bests in ERA and WHIP and in his prime, and Rich Hill, a lefty with superstar potential armed with all the tools needed to develop into a dominant pitcher. After the big three, unglamorous innings-eaters such as Jon Lieber and Jason Marquis could round out the rotation, as well as starter-turned-closer-turned-starter Ryan Dempster, giving them a solid veteran presence.
Ranking most contingent upon: Continued average-to-below-average production from the back-end of the rotation. With their top three starters, the Cubs should have a rotation in the top 5 in the NL, but are hindered by back-end uncertainties. Lieber and Marquis can eat innings, but give up more than their share of hits and home runs and Marquis especially has a penchant for long-term implosions (see: all of 2006 or the second-half of 2007). Ryan Dempster is intriguing, but he was never more than a back-end starter before the closer conversion anyway. The Cubs will shake up the last two spots, but it doesn’t necessarily mean it will generate better results.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Rich Hill had a stellar sophomore campaign, but left many salivating for more. He won 11 games, averaged nearly 1 K/IP, and maintained a sub-4.00 ERA, but has the potential for much more. He showed steady improvement after a red-hot start and with no lingering health problems, his maturity should continue in 2008 and he could be a top 20 fantasy starter by season’s end if all goes well.
Subject to Change: Zambrano is solidified as the ace and Lilly and Hill have secured spots in the rotations, but they could be split up so the rotation can alternate between lefties and righties. Lieber should almost be assured of a spot in the back of the rotation, but could be bumped up to the #3 if Piniella feels compelled to break up the lefties. Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis will likely battle for the last spot, but so will lefty Sean Marshall. If Marshall wins the final spot, then they’ll be able to keep Lilly and Hill as the #2 and #3; if it goes to a veteran righty, the sequential order could be shaken up a bit.
On The Radar: The Cubs currently have three veterans (Marquis, Lieber, and Dempster) fighting it out for the final two spots. The best outside shot belongs to Sean Marshall, a solid 25-year old lefty who can no longer be considered a prospect after a providing nineteen solid fill-in starts when injuries struck last season, going 7-8 with a 3.92. He’s fine as a fifth starter, but with minor league options and immovable, expensive veterans above him, he may have to wait another year for a shot a full-season starting gig. Longtime Cubs’ prized pitching prospect Angel Guzman is now 26 and as ready as ever for a spot on a major league staff, but may be better suited in the bullpen. Also in the mix, another starting pitching prospect, Juan Mateo, has paid his dues in the minors but will likely be back at AAA due to the pitching depth.
10. Pittsburgh Pirates
Tentative Rotation:
1. Tom Gorzelanny
2. Ian Snell
3. Matt Morris
4. Paul Maholm
5. Zach Duke
Review: Arguably the least talented and most likely destined to finish in last place in the NL Central, the Pirates surprisingly have the most stable rotation in the division. Their co-aces, Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell, don’t have the experience of Zambrano/Lilly or the potential of Sheets/Gallardo, but they’re a quality lefty-righty combo with good upside, good control and consistency, and surprisingly well-refined skills for third-year starters. They’re joined by the veteran staff anchor and middle-man, Matt Morris, who has seven straight years of double-digit victories and most importantly to a young staff, annually logs upwards of 200 innings pitched. The back-end consists of lefties Paul Maholm (10-15, 5.02) and Zach Duke (3-8, 5.53) both coming off disappointing campaigns, but both worthy young starters deserving of rotation spots.
Ranking most contingent upon: The Pirates not trading Matt Morris. Pittsburgh has a nice young core of a rotation, but their stability hinges upon the veteran leadership and innings-eating capabilities of Morris. Gorzelanny, Snell, Maholm, and Duke are comparable to the Giants’ young core, but they’re not quite as talented and aren’t fully ready to lead a staff on their own. Morris may be dealt for a contender (it only makes sense), but until he does at least the rotation is stable (which is more than can be said for the rest of the NL Central).
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Gorzelanny made but 12 major league starts prior to taking over as the ace in his first full-season workload and he didn’t disappoint. He logged over 200 innings, en route to 14 wins, a 2/1 K/BB rate, and a respectable 3.88 ERA. We’ve seen recent Pirates’ starters struggle in their second seasons (most notably Zach Duke), but Gorzelanny has the talent and low-risk factor to buck the trend. He may not get much better, but there’s more upside than downside here and the low publicity he receives as a result of pitching for the cellar-dwelling Pirates could be a blessing in disguise for savvy fantasy owners.
Subject to Change: The Pirates committed to their five starters almost a month ago and no groundbreaking development have emerged to provide any reason to doubt them. Morris could be dealt, but it doesn’t appear likely, as he’s been praised by the coaching staff as a mentor to younger, developing arms. It’s highly probable, the two lefties, Maholm and Duke, currently listed as the #4 and #5 could be split up so they can better alternate between lefties and righties, but other than that, no changes are likely to occur.
On The Radar: The Pirates have a plethora of fringe pitching prospects who have failed to succeed at the major-league level nor live up to their draft-day hype. 2002 #1 overall pick (taken just before B.J. Upton), Bryan Bullington, is already 26 and has made but three major league starts. He put pedestrian numbers in his second season at AAA and will likely be back for a third stint to open 2008. John Van Benschoten, their 2001 1st rounder outpitched Bullington in AAA, but was massacred to the tune of 10.15 ERA in 11 appearances last season, all but eradicating any chance of opening 2008 in the majors. They also brought in a pair of fringe prospects in former Red Phil Dumatrait and former Blue Jay Ty Taubenheim, and if all else fails veteran non-roster invitees including Jaret Wright, Adam Bernero, and Casey Fossum should at least provide competition and push the starters this spring.
11. Colorado Rockies
Tentative Rotation:
1. Jeff Francis
2. Aaron Cook
3. Ubaldo Jimenez
4. Jason Hirsh
5. Franklin Morales
Review: The Rockies have always been known for their great lineups but last year when a very good young rotation formed, it not only dramatically improved the team, but sparked a playoff run. Jeff Francis put it all together in 2007 and established himself as a worthy ace. His ERA and WHIP may have jumped a bit from 2006, but he logged over 200 innings for the first time, dramatically increased his strikeout rate, and showed tremendous poise, not faltering under intense pressure. Aaron Cook will be back as the #2 after his regular season ended in August but returned for one solid playoff start. He’s a modest second starter, but his career has been hampered by nagging injuries and he’s not exactly a shut-down big-game pitcher. Nevertheless, he’s continued to be a great road pitcher. Ubaldo Jimenez steps in as the #3 after earning rave reviews for electric stuff and a good presence last season going from AAA to the middle of a wildcard race and more than holding his own. The back two spots will likely be filled by Jason Hirsh, returning from a broken leg after a promising start, and Franklin Morales, another 2007 rookie who thrived and exuded great control despite intense scrutiny and tough competition.
Ranking most contingent upon: The Rockies sticking with Morales and Hirsh in the back-end of the rotation. 11th out 16 isn’t much to brag about, but their low ranking is due to a high level of unpredictability, not a lack of talent. Cook and Hirsh are returning from injury and Jimenez and Morales have a combined 23 career starts. If they stick with their pitchers and let them blossom, they should be rewarded in the future. Should they turn to the unpredictable and recently struggling veterans they added in the offseason in an effort to “win now,” rather than open up with their homegrown talent, they could regress as a whole (see: Toronto Blue Jays, circa 2007).
Biggest Potential Surprise/Disappointment: Jimenez will already be on the radar of many savvy fantasy baseball owners, but he could be worth taking a round or two ahead of conventional wisdom with his potential. He’s got a nasty repetoire of pitches that limited hitters to a .228 BAA, despite pitching his home games at Coors field. He just needs some refinement, which he should get under the close watch of Bob Apodaca this year in their quest to develop him into a formidable #2 behind Francis.
Subject to Change: Clint Hurdle said there is competition for the role of ace, but he has yet to announce who it will be. It’s quite obvious Francis will be back at the top despite Hurdle’s ambiguity. After Francis, Cook should be the favorite, but he could be usurped by Jimenez. Morales and Hirsh are currently interchangeable in the final two spots, assuming they both hold off countless veterans fighting for their jobs. The Rockies doled out a few major-league deals to veteran pitchers, so it’s not for certain that Morales and Hirsh are guaranteed spots in the rotation.
On The Radar: Of the veterans vying for rotation spots, Kip Wells, Mark Redman, and Josh Towers are all currently on the 40-man roster and expect to open the season in the majors. Wells led the majors with 17 losses last season and even though he had little run support in his starts, his 5.70 ERA and 186 hits allowed were the main proponents of a disappointing year. Redman had a tale of two halves last year, going 0-4 with a 11.63 to start the season with the Braves, but looked good with the Rockies, posting a 3.20 ERA in 19.0 IP. Towers imploded in 2006, but returned to slightly-below-league-average form for the Blue Jays in 2007 and showed he can still be a capable long reliever/spot starter. Also added from the Blue Jays was Victor Zambrano, a 32-year old non-roster invitee, who appears to be well past his prime despite his age.
12. Cincinnati Reds
Tentative Rotation:
1. Aaron Harang
2. Bronson Arroyo
3. Josh Fogg
4. Edinson Volquez
5. Matt Belisle
Review: Aaron Harang has established himself as an ace, workhorse, and intimidating presence on the mound. The staff as a whole is underwhelming, but Harang is its saving grace, preventing it from being at the very bottom of the NL. He’s produced back-to-back 16 win, 200+ strikeout, sub-3.80 ERA campaigns, starting 69 games, pitching 8 complete games, and logging over 465 innings. He’s the backbone of a rotation that also boasts a modest #2 in Bronson Arroyo, who would’ve likely slid down the rotation with any competition after sporting an ERA well over through June, but rebounded well and provides some security after Harang. Josh Fogg was added to eat innings and provide a veteran arm at a low price and bridge to the back-end of the rotation, who could be filled with a variety of pitchers.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Josh Fogg got a lot of publicity last season as the Rockies’ “dragon slayer,” stepping up to the challenge late in the season against the team’s toughest competitors. He didn’t lose in last seven starts, but he didn’t exactly blow hitters away, getting hit to the tune of .306 in August and .294 in September and relied on great defense, momentum, consistent run support, and a healthy dosage of good luck. In the last five years, he hasn’t topped 11 wins or posted an ERA below 4.64 and even with a nice run late in the season, well above his potential, he still finished with a humdrum 4.94 ERA and .293 BAA. He’ll get some hype as the #3 for the Reds and a strong finish in 2007, but there’s no need to spend a draft pick on him at this time.
Ranking most contingent upon: Homer Bailey and Jonny Cueto still not ready to make a splash in the majors as full-time starters. Dusty Baker will likely prefer a veteran pitching staff seeing as the Reds appear to be in a win-now mode and both top pitching prospects will likely be on the outside looking in. If they get their shot and live up the hype, this rotation rating could skyrocket, but if its littered with veteran free agent holdovers as expected, it’ll probably remain in the bottom half of the league.
Subject to Change: Harang is the undisputed ace and Arroyo the #2, but the rest is up for grabs. Fogg admitted that he was guaranteed a spot on the roster, but not one in the rotation, though all signs point to him inheriting the #3 spot. Behind Fogg, Matt Belisle is expected to return in a back-end role and Edinson Volquez (who was acquired for Josh Hamilton) is expected to be an immediate starter, according to management. Neither Belisle or Volquez are assured of their spots and they’ll face stiff competition from top prospects.
On The Radar: Homer Bailey has been on the radar for a spot in the major league rotation since he was drafted, but he struggled against big-league hitting, losing composure at times and walking as many batters as he struck out. He’s still only 21 and dominated in the minors including in 12 starts last year in AAA, but there’s talk that he’s been passed in the organization by fellow prospect, Johnny Cueto. Cueto, three months Bailey’s senior, manhandled the competition in A+, AA, and AAA and has the Reds high on his potential. He’s been an instant success since coming over from the Dominican Republic and shows no signs of slowing, but with only 4 AAA starts, it doesn’t hurt to get in some more minor league seasoning before making the jump. Matt Maloney is another highly-touted prospect, but he’s currently slated behind both Bailey and Cueto. Also in the mix is the recently signed Jeremy Affeldt, who has the ability to start, but will likely be more heavily considered for a mid-relief role, which he adequate success in last season.
13. Houston Astros
Tentative Rotation:
1. Roy Oswalt
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Brandon Backe
4. Woody Williams
5. Shawn Chacon
Review: Roy Oswalt has been a staple in the Astros’ rotation for the last seven years, winning 112 games since 2001 and never posting an ERA over 3.50 since his rookie season. Oswalt has carried the team at times, but will now have to shoulder a bigger load than ever. Whether it was Wade Miller, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, or even Jason Jennings, management always attempted to give Oswalt one other quality top-of-the-rotation starter in the rotation. Not this year, though. Wandy Rodriguez is the tentative #2, a toolsy lefty, who made nice strides in 2007 but was still a complete head case on the road. It appears as if the rotation will be filled out with Brandon Backe, who has made a total of 13 starts in the last two seasons, Woody Williams, who is 41 and coming off a season in which he posted a 5.27 ERA and allowed the second-most hits for any NL starter with less than 190 innings pitched, and newly-acquired Shawn Chacon. Chacon finished with a 3.94 as a long reliever for the Pirates last year, but in his 4 starts, posted an uninspiring 5.59 ERA.
Ranking most contingent upon: The Astros not acquiring a bona fide #2 pitcher. It’s hard to imagine, after selling the farm for Miguel Tejada and Jose Valverde, that the Astros wouldn’t feel more compelled to address their starting rotation with the team in a win-now mode within a weak division. Maybe Wandy Rodriguez can get his stuff together on the road and prove to be the answer behind Oswalt, but he definitely profiles much better as a #3 at this point in his career. There are free agent pitchers out there, but until the Astros acquire one, they’ll have to rebound from a disappointing 2007 with their weakest supporting cast behind Oswalt yet.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Many are intrigued by the potential of a healthy Brandon Backe after two straight injury-plagued campaigns, but with a 4.63 career ERA, the expectations should be tempered. Backe has looked good in his minimal post-rehab workloads in the last two years, but as a fulltime pitcher, his peripherals seemed to continually deviate back to league-average. As a former 18th rounder without a cannon for an arm, the ceiling was never high, but Backe made the most of his opportunities. He’ll get plenty more again in 2008, but even at full strength, he’s at best a waiver-wire add if he gets hot and not worth drafting.
Subject to Change: Only Oswalt and Rodriguez are set in stone as of right now, and there’s even some wiggle room on Rodriguez’s #2 spot should the Astros make a surprise free agent signing to bolster the rotation. Backe is stationed as the #3 which he shouldn’t have a problem maintaining if he’s healthy. Woody Williams doesn’t fit well in the bullpen, so until they find a better veteran alternative, he should be a mainstay in the rotation again. Upon signing the deal, reports said the Astros would slot Chacon in the fifth spot, but nothing is official yet and he’ll need to hold off Chris Sampson this spring to prevent return to a long relief role.
On The Radar: Chris Sampson was the team’s 5th starter until they reached a deal with Chacon earlier in the week. Sampson’s definitely not a glamorous pitcher nor one scouts get excited about, but he got good control and is a smart pitcher – helping him post a respectable 4.05 career ERA despite allowing more than a hit per inning and averaging a mere 3.79 K/9 IP. He could assume the long relief role if Chacon takes the final spot in the rotation. Fernando Nieve, one of the remaining top pitching prospects will compete as well. Nieve looked solid in 40 major league appearances in 2006, made but five starts last year and is recovering from injury. Finally, Felipe Paulino looked sharp in a full season’s work in AA before making an unsuccessful jump to the majors. He’ll likely start the year in AAA.
14. Florida Marlins
Tentative Rotation:
1. Scott Olsen
2. Sergio Mitre
3. Andrew Miller
4. Mark Hendrickson
5. Ricky Nolasco
Review: The Marlins entered the 2007 season with the best young rotation in baseball, boasting an established ace and four rookie pitchers coming off double-digit win seasons. One year later, their ace has been dealt away, three of the four sensational rookies from 2006 are plagued with injury and their immediate futures in jeopardy, and the one who stayed healthy saw his ERA jump over a run-and-a-half in 2007 while getting hit to the tune of .315 by opposing batters. The one who stayed healthy and got rocked, Scott Olsen, is the favorite to be their ace in 2008. He’s assured a rotation spot along with low-ceiling Sergio Mitre (who, outside of a 2.85 pre-All-Star break ERA last year has never had a significant period of time in his career with a sub-5.00 ERA), Andrew Miller, the untested prized prospect the Marlins’ received for Dontrelle Willis, and journeyman Mark Hendrickson. The fifth spot is up for grabs, but with three lefties already in the rotation, it will likely go to the best righty prospect of the bunch.
Ranking most contingent upon: Andrew Miller gradually developing into the staff ace by season’s end. Honestly, this rotation, without Miller’s potential to blossom into the next great lefty might be the worst in baseball. Their ace had a 5.81 ERA last season, their #2 had a 7.27 ERA after the All Star Break, and Mark Hendrickson has spent the past two seasons spot-starting and long relieving because he was dropped from two rotations. Miller may only be two years removed from college, but he was one of the most polished pre-draft pitchers in a long time and he should be able to put together a solid season in the pitcher friendly confines of Florida.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Sergio Mitre will invariably be on the draft boards of a few teams in each league thanks good size, good stuff, being at a peak age of 27, and coming off a season with a 4.65 ERA and 2/1 K/BB rate. Before his 15-start hot streak before the All-Star break last year, his best stint was posting a 5.37 ERA in seven starts and fourteen mop-up jobs for the Cubs in 2005. After the All-Star break, his ERA rose nearly 5 full runs, posting a near 1/1 K/BB rate (25:22), and getting shellacked with a .348 opposing batting average. There’s nothing in Mitre’s resume to indicate another white-hot half-season and without one, he’s lucky to be the Marlins’ #5 starter.
Subject to Change: The entire rotation. Fredi Gonzalez said the competition for ace is a wide-open race including Olsen, Mitre, Miller, Hendrickson, Al Leiter, Wayne Huizenga, former Governor Jeb Bush, and the winner of their fan sweepstakes roster spot giveaway. In all seriousness, their tentative top four starters are all in consideration for the spot atop the rotation, meaning their sequential order could shake out in a variety of scenarios. The fifth spot appears to be a battle between Ricky Nolasco and Rick Vanden Hurk but there’s about a half-dozen other viable candidates who could claim it as well.
On The Radar: Assuming Nolasco, who was one of countless starters who battled injury problems in 2007, is the favorite for the last spot, then Rick Vanden Hurk is the on-the-radar favorite to usurp a spot. He’s a 6′5” 22-year-old righty from the Netherlands, who spent his entire first four professional seasons between rookie and A+ ball, logging only 150 innings in that span. Then, last year, in his fifth season, he advanced through AA and AAA before cracking the major league rotation and racking up over 140 innings of work alone last season. He’s swiftly moving up the internal prospect rankings and could be a major player this spring. Also in the mix are 24-year old Daniel Barone (1-3, 5.71), 2005 1st round pick Chris Volstad, Dallas Trahern, who came over with Andrew Miller this offseason after going 12-6 with a 3.87 ERA in AA, former Devil Rays spot starter Tim Corcoran, and 21-year old Gaby Hernandez coming off a solid season in AA is back in his second major league training camp with the intentions of winning a back-end starting job.
15. Washington Nationals
Tentative Rotation:
1. Shawn Hill
2. John Patterson
3. Matt Chico
4. Jason Bergmann
5. Tim Redding
Review: The rotation is more stable than it was a year ago, but they still have some strides to make as a unit. Shawn Hill, despite being hurt half the season, showed enough potential in his 16 starts to open the year as the staff ace. He’s a crafty 26-year old coming off his first significant major-league stint, which resulted in a 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and a 65/25 K/BB ratio. Assuming he’s fully healed from surgery, John Patterson, the team’s former ace, will follow-up in the two hole and hope to return to 2005 form, when he went 9-7 with a 3.13 ERA. Matt Chico will bridge the staff as a fireball-throwing lefty who is still sorting out the finer points of his game but made a good impression on scouts last year. Jason Bergmann is assured of a back-end rotation spot after 21 solid, but unspectacular starts, modest endurance, and serving as perhaps the best strikeout pitcher of the bunch. The fifth and final spot is open for competition, though, Tim Redding should be considered a front-runner, offering a good veteran presence and coming off a strong showing in the same role last year.
Ranking most contingent upon: The Nationals’ top minor-league pitchers still being a year away from the majors. The Nationals have plenty of intriguing, young arms who will eventually push the likes of Bergmann and Redding either to the bullpen or to another organization, but until these arms are ready for big-league hitting, the Nationals’ rotation will be a high (injury) risk, moderate-reward unit.
Biggest Potential Surprise/Disappointment: Prior to last year’s resurgence, Tim Redding had an ERA of 10.58 since leaving the Astros in 2005. Redding revived his career logging plenty of garbage time innings for a team out of contention, often against other teams out of contention, and making 10 of his 15 starts in cavernous RFK Stadium (where his ERA was 0.59 lower). He was always considered an above-average pitcher, so modest success shouldn’t shock anyone, but it would be a surprise to see Redding stick in the rotation for all of 2008 and post anywhere near his 3.64 ERA of last season, especially in a new, less pitcher-friendly park. Maybe worth a flier in deeper leagues, but without a secure rotation spot, you should only be interested in him if you have to scrape the bottom of the barrel.
Subject to Change: Shawn Hill isn’t a certainty atop the rotation and therefore either are spots 2-5. That said, it would be very surprising if Hill doesn’t make the Opening Day start. Patterson is assured a spot in the rotation and presumably behind Hill, if he’s healthy. Likewise, Bergmann has secured a starting gig somewhere within the rotation, health-pending. Chico is the team’s top lefty, so not only is he safe, but he should be aiming to open as the #2 or #3 depending on who else is healthy enough to join him. The fifth spot is wide-open and the frontrunner for the spot could flip-flop numerous times before the season starts.
On The Radar: There are almost too many pitchers to name, many of them young arms without a full season’s workload in the majors under their belt, but in major league camp regardless. 30-year old talented-but-troubled lefty Odalis Perez coming off his second straight subpar season with the Royals inked a minor league deal earlier in the week and is the elder statesmen of those on the bubble. He’s joined by fellow lefties John Lannan (2-2, 4.15 in 6 ML starts in ‘07), Mike O’Connor (who made 20 solid major league starts in 2006), and Josh Smoke (their 2007 1st round pick). The righty pool includes highly-touted, strong-armed Garrett Mock, who was acquired from Arizona in the Livan Hernandez trade, former Yankee prospect Tyler Clippard, and 21-year old Collin Balester, the organization’s top prospect according to Baseball America last season.
16. St. Louis Cardinals
Tentative Rotation:
1. Adam Wainwright
2. Braden Looper
3. Joel Pineiro
4. Anthony Reyes
5. Todd Wellemeyer
Review: Baseball version’s of a MASH unit, the Cardinals’ rotation has been devastated with injuries before spring training even began. Without ace Chris Carpenter, one-time top-of-the-rotation headliner Mark Mulder, and veteran Matt Clement, they’ve been forced to use two converted relievers in Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer (who were pedestrian starters last season), a pitcher coming off a 2-14 season in Anthony Reyes, and Joel Pineiro, who was acquired midseason last year for cash and a minor leaguer to be named later. Adam Wainwright made a smooth transition back to starter after taking over as the team’s closer in 2006 and leading a strong bullpen to a World Series victory. Wainwright proved he has the arms, tools, and make-up to thrive in any role, and he shouldn’t falter even with the pressure of staff ace on his shoulders. After Wainwright, though, it’ll be a mish-mosh of cast-offs and converted relievers until the aforementioned veterans heal and even the great Dave Duncan will be challenged to get adequate productivity from the rest of the rotation.
Ranking most contingent upon: Injuries. If Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Matt Clement are all healthy, this rotation should be in the middle of the pack. Considering the three combined for a whopping four starts and all are over thirty, the Cardinals should plan to make due without the trio for a good chunk of the season. Mulder is expected out until June and Carpenter will likely miss the entire first half of the season. Their makeshift rotation just doesn’t come close to adequately filling these voids and that’s why they’re ranked last.
Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Anthony Reyes can’t get any worse after going 2-14 with a 6.04 ERA, but he certainly has the intangibles to make a dramatic improvement this year if he wins a spot in the rotation. His chances are looking good, competing with Wellemeyer and reliever Brad Thompson for the final two spots and with even league-average run support this year, his fantasy numbers could significantly improve right off the bat. He’ll also get to make a good number of starts against divisional opponents in a weak NL Central. While at USC, there were times where he was ranked ahead of Mark Prior by scouts and he’s shown good resiliency despite major league struggles. He still dominated in AAA last year and belongs in the rotation.
Subject to Change: Wainwright has secured the starting role, and as the only other pitcher to spend the majority of last season in the rotation and have moderate success, Looper will be the #2 by default. The only real variable here are the final two spots, which has come down to a three man race between Wellemeyer, Reyes, and Brad Thompson.
On The Radar: Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan’s penchant for converting relievers to starters was a prominent factor on last year’s rotation and may be again in 2008. Brad Thompson looks like the long shot of the three finalists for the last two rotation spots, but he’ll be back in the bullpen and first in line to step into the rotation should more injuries occur or if one of the tentative starters implodes. If LaRussa and Duncan are interested in the novel concept of using starters in the starting rotation, 24-year old prospect, Mark Parisi could get a long look this spring after a strong showing in AAA last year, as could a veteran free agent starter still on the market. Otherwise, Thompson is the best bet to step up and if he’s not good enough, it’s anybody’s guess who will step into this rotation in the interim.
James O’Donnell
Creator & Co-Writer
