Sleepers & Busts: AL Central Edition

Chicago White Sox
Surprise: Octavio Dotel
Dotel’s last three campaigns have been ruined by injury so it’s hard to set the bar high in 2008, regardless of how favorable his surroundings are. Nonetheless, 2007 was a rebound year for Dotel, who returned to form and looked good enough as the Royals’ closer to earn a trade to the Braves. After the trade he was hampered again by injuries and struggled with the league change, but all in all, 2007 was a success, throwing nearly as many innings as he did in 2005 and 2006 combined and posting an impressive 41/12 K/BB rate. Now, joining a deep White Sox bullpen, he can go back to the role he thrived in as a fantasy stalwart in Houston, as a 6^th/7^th, multi-inning reliever and occasional save vulture. It all depends on his health and since he has no injury concerns as of the moment, he projects as a good source of holds and strikeouts from a mid-relief roster spot.

Sleeper: Alexei Ramirez
A former Cuban All-star and the most recent prominent defector, the 27-year old Ramirez is a versatile fielder and hitter. The White Sox gave him a multi-million dollar contract and though he may start in the minors, all intentions are for him to be a long-term solution at 2B. He comes over from Cuba after leading the league with 20 HRs and hitting .335 last season. In six seasons, he was a career .334 hitter, showing a good power stroke, and adequate speed. He only stole 44 bases in his career, but with a 48% caught stealing rate in Cuba, he translates into a potential 10-15 SB guy in the U.S. He’s hitting .375 with 8 RBIs this spring and the only thing keeping him from a starting job is his defense. He’s still learning 2B, but is already adept at SS and CF, so he could even find a role as a back-up rather than open in AAA. Eventually, though, he will get a chance to start at one of the aforementioned positions and should be at least an above-average middle infielder offensively in due time.

Deep Sleeper: Jerry Owens
Through a series of injuries last season, opportunities emerged in the outfield and Owens was the prospect who seized them the most. He got the call-up in June and showed good development as a hitter and base runner. He also held his own defensively and could project as a future leadoff hitter. He’ll be stuck on the bench for now, but with three subpar fielders starting in the outfield and a lineup lacking a true leadoff hitter, he should get plenty at-bats from the bench. He hit .267 in 93 games last year, but more importantly scored 44 runs and stole 32 bases in 40 attempts. He could put Dave Roberts-esque production in the immediate future and has a slightly higher ceiling. At worst, he’ll be a one-dimensional base stealer type with a modest batting average, which always has some fantasy value.

Bust: Carlos Quentin
Quentin has been considered a top prospect or a deep sleeper since his professional career started, and though he has all the tools to be a successful power hitter in the league, he still hasn’t put it all together. His primary problems have been his penchant for striking out and inability to adapt to major-league pitching and shoulder injuries. His shoulder is still sore and it has limited him to about a dozen at-bats this spring. He’s also now forced to switch leagues and learn a new position on the fly and it could affect his ability to focus on his hitting. He’s projected as the starter in left field, but his shoulder still isn’t 100% and it’s likely he could open the year on the DL. He went from 9 HRs in 166 at-bats in 2006 to 5 HRs in 229 at-bats last year. He has the potential, but he may have been slightly overvalued, hitting predominantly in hitter-friendly minor-league parks and the shoulder concerns could set him back further. Jerry Owens is better defensively and better compliments a power-laden lineup, so a platoon or timeshare could further limit his numbers even if he’s healthy all season.

Unlackey Angels Suffer Another Bad Break

Update: The Angels will now be forced to open the season without last year’s #1 and #2 starters, as John Lackey will be out three to four weeks because of a strained right tricep. He has already started rehabilitation, but will be unable to partake in any “baseball activities” for nearly a month. This means Lackey won’t likely even be cleared to resume simulated throwing until mid-to-late April. The Angels already lost Kelvim Escobar for the start of the season due to a shoulder injury and now have two open rotation spots.

The View: In single-season leagues, Lackey’s draft status for the reamining mock drafts will obviously take a significant hit. He was the 7th pitcher drafted overall, according to ADP last week, but will surely fall into at least the mid-teens from drafts between now and Opening Day. Considering Lackey doesn’t have any history of arm problems and has been nothing short of workhorse for the Angels in years past, it’s not worth giving up on him for the season. He could feasibly be back by the first of week of May and only miss four or five starts, though a triceps injury on his throwing arm should be taken seriously. He’s still worth drafting as a #2 SP in hopes he’ll miss minimal time and if the recent news scares away enough owners, he could be a steal if had as a #3 SP.

As far as the Angels are concerned, they’ll open the year with Jon Garland and Jered Weaver atop the rotation – which isn’t a terrible combination, but one that will likely be outmatched by superior top-of-the-rotation tandems on other elite AL teams. They’ll now scramble to fill the back-end of the rotation behind lefty Joe Saunders. The erratic, but highly talented Ervin Santana has all but assured himself a spot in the rotation with the latest injury, despite a 5.76 ERA last season (and going 1-10 with a 8.38 ERA on the road). He’s best avoided at this time, but he’s still young enough to rebound, and is fairly effective on the road, if you’re a very actvie owner in a league without transaction limits.

The last rotation spot could be won by the prospect who most impresses the staff. The Angels’ top pitching prospect, Nick Adenhart, has looked good this spring and could make the jump after an impressive 10-8, 3.65 ERA AA campaign last year. He’ll compete against Nick Green, who posted nearly identical numbers at AA last year (10-8, 3.68 ERA), but is considered more of a low-upside prospect. Also in the mix is effective long reliever and spot-starter Dustin Moseley, who would probably be one of the best #5 starters in the league but has high value in the bullpen.