Chicago White Sox
Surprise: Octavio Dotel
Dotel’s last three campaigns have been ruined by injury so it’s hard to set the bar high in 2008, regardless of how favorable his surroundings are. Nonetheless, 2007 was a rebound year for Dotel, who returned to form and looked good enough as the Royals’ closer to earn a trade to the Braves. After the trade he was hampered again by injuries and struggled with the league change, but all in all, 2007 was a success, throwing nearly as many innings as he did in 2005 and 2006 combined and posting an impressive 41/12 K/BB rate. Now, joining a deep White Sox bullpen, he can go back to the role he thrived in as a fantasy stalwart in Houston, as a 6th/7th, multi-inning reliever and occasional save vulture. It all depends on his health and since he has no injury concerns as of the moment, he projects as a good source of holds and strikeouts from a mid-relief roster spot.
Sleeper: Alexei Ramirez
A former Cuban All-star and the most recent prominent defector, the 27-year old Ramirez is a versatile fielder and hitter. The White Sox gave him a multi-million dollar contract and though he may start in the minors, all intentions are for him to be a long-term solution at 2B. He comes over from Cuba after leading the league with 20 HRs and hitting .335 last season. In six seasons, he was a career .334 hitter, showing a good power stroke, and adequate speed. He only stole 44 bases in his career, but with a 48% caught stealing rate in Cuba, he translates into a potential 10-15 SB guy in the U.S. He’s hitting .375 with 8 RBIs this spring and the only thing keeping him from a starting job is his defense. He’s still learning 2B, but is already adept at SS and CF, so he could even find a role as a back-up rather than open in AAA. Eventually, though, he will get a chance to start at one of the aforementioned positions and should be at least an above-average middle infielder offensively in due time.
Deep Sleeper: Jerry Owens
Through a series of injuries last season, opportunities emerged in the outfield and Owens was the prospect who seized them the most. He got the call-up in June and showed good development as a hitter and base runner. He also held his own defensively and could project as a future leadoff hitter. He’ll be stuck on the bench for now, but with three subpar fielders starting in the outfield and a lineup lacking a true leadoff hitter, he should get plenty at-bats from the bench. He hit .267 in 93 games last year, but more importantly scored 44 runs and stole 32 bases in 40 attempts. He could put Dave Roberts-esque production in the immediate future and has a slightly higher ceiling. At worst, he’ll be a one-dimensional base stealer type with a modest batting average, which always has some fantasy value.
Bust: Carlos Quentin
Quentin has been considered a top prospect or a deep sleeper since his professional career started, and though he has all the tools to be a successful power hitter in the league, he still hasn’t put it all together. His primary problems have been his penchant for striking out and inability to adapt to major-league pitching and shoulder injuries. His shoulder is still sore and it has limited him to about a dozen at-bats this spring. He’s also now forced to switch leagues and learn a new position on the fly and it could affect his ability to focus on his hitting. He’s projected as the starter in left field, but his shoulder still isn’t 100% and it’s likely he could open the year on the DL. He went from 9 HRs in 166 at-bats in 2006 to 5 HRs in 229 at-bats last year. He has the potential, but he may have been slightly overvalued, hitting predominantly in hitter-friendly minor-league parks and the shoulder concerns could set him back further. Jerry Owens is better defensively and better compliments a power-laden lineup, so a platoon or timeshare could further limit his numbers even if he’s healthy all season.
Cleveland Indians
Surprise: Josh Barfield
Barfield was a legit NL Rookie of the Year candidate in 2006, posting a .280-13-51-21 line for the Padres before getting dealt to the Indians and struggling to adjust to his new home. He finished with a disappointing .243-3-50-14 line, hitting a grotesque .193 in the second half before losing his job to Asdrubal Cabrera. He spent the offseason with his father, former major-leaguer Jesse Barfield, scrutinizing tapes of his hitting mechanics last year and working on the flaws. His biggest problem was an inability to draw walks and he has already showed vast improvement in pitch selection this spring. He may still have to open in AAA, but Cabrera projects as a utility player in the long run and won’t put up the type of spectacular production needed to fend off Barfield once he regains his form. Barfield was still a good clutch hitter and had flashes of success last year, once he puts it back together, he’s a top-12 offensive 2B, especially in a hitter-friendly AL Central.
Sleeper: Franklin Gutierrez
Gutierrez got his first real major-league workload last season and hle dhis own over the course of 100 games. He did well enough last year with the bat for the Indains to part ways with Trot Nixon and give him the everyday RF job this year. He was considered a five-tool prospect in the Dodgers system and has moved quickly through the Indian’s organization. In 271 at-bats last year, he hit .266-13-36-8, and extrapolating those numbers over a full season (approximately doubling his at-bat total), and you’re looking at a 25/15 hitter who should score plenty of runs in an explosive lineup. He’s only 25 and just starting to reach his potential, and he’s been torrid so far this spring, hitting .412 and being praised by manager Eric Wedge for his improved consistency. His disrespected 83rd ranked OF ADP has him currently behind an injured Wily Mo Pena and Rocco Baldelli, unemployed Barry Bonds, probable minor leaguers Colby Rasmus and Jay Bruce, back-up Ryan Doumit, and Angels’ 6th outfielder, Reggie Willits.
Deep Sleeper: Kelly Shoppach
Upon sorting all the back-up catchers based on offensive potential, potential playing time, and the likelihood of a trade or injury resulting in a starting gig, I had Shoppach ranked #1. He may be stuck behind the best offensive catcher in baseball, in Victor Martinez, but he’ll still see plenty of work as an organizational favorite and projected future starter. He was arguably the top catching prospect at the beginning of the decade and has gradually developed as a hitter through an extended minor league stay. Martinez, who is far from solid defensively often needs rest or has to start at 1B, making way for Shoppach to get into the lineup. He racked up 161 at-bats last year, hitting an impressive .330-4-17 in the first half before cooling off, but showed enough potential to garner plenty of interest from other teams. He’s stuck as a back-up for now, but if injuries strike either Hafner, Garko, or Martinez, he’ll crack the lineup, or if the Indians feel compelled to move him, there’s plenty of cities he could start in.
Bust: Paul Byrd
Byrd’s feel-good year in 2007 came crashing down after he was implicated in the steroids scandal as a former HGH user. While the offseason controversy could cause a distraction, Byrd will have a hard enough job duplicating last year’s win total of 15 without any impediments. He was 13th amongst all AL qualifying starters last year with a 6.02 (runs per game) run support, with the team scoring 7 or more runs in more than a third of his starts. The lineup production shouldn’t drop off, but Byrd might not be so lucky as to be the team’s leading pitcher in run support again in 2008. Byrd also won his 15 games with a below-average 4.59 ERA, while giving up 27 HRs and getting hit to tune of a .301 BAA> His control is still impeccable, but he doesn’t strike out many hitters, has hittable stuff, and had a good deal of luck last year. At age 37 and battling with off-the-field issues, an attrition is expected.
Detroit Tigers
Surprise: Dontrelle Willis
People have been waiting for Willis’ herky-jerky delivery to either be figured out, cause him injury, or cause him to meltdown. They’ve also been waiting for it to happen to Francisco Rodriguez (arguably the best fantasy closer), too. Willis suffered a setback last year, but got a much needed change of scenery, where he won’t have to carry the team on his shoulders and will receive much greater run support in another pitcher-friendly home park. He’ll get to match up against opposing #3/#4 staretrs for the most part instead of the NL’s elite pitchers like last season. If he stays healthy, which he has done every season since winning ROY (making a minimum of 32 starts each season), he’ll easily topple his 10 wins from a year ago. Considering last year’s 5.17 was over a full run higher than nay other single-season ERA posted by Willis and about a run-and-a-half higher than his career ERA, that should also improve. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, but he throws enough innings to post a solid total, and as long as he make the necessary slight improvements, should return to #3 fantasy SP form in 2008.
Sleeper: Marcus Thames
Considering every other position is filled by a star, the sleeper options were pretty limited here. Thames is never going to be a .300-30-100 hitter, especially platooning with Jacque Jones if LF this year, but he has underrated power. He’s already 31 so he’s past a breakout age, but with that lineup, pitchers will have no choice but to give him something to hit and if he can continually get a hold of it, he could duplicate or improve upon his career-high of 26 home runs. He’s averaged 1 HR in every 14 at-bats over the last two seasons and while the platoon won’t do him any favors, he’s also the primary back-up at 1B should Carlos Guillen in his first full-season at the position struggle or get hurt. He doesn’t draw a lot of walks but he should get a good chunk of at-bats, score a good amount of runs in that lineup when he does, and can give teams a solid power boost when needed, not bad for someone who won’t even be discussed on draft day.
Deep Sleeper: Jordan Tata
If injuries strike the tentative five starters, Tata might be first in line for a starting gig in 2008. An intimidating 6’6’’, 220 lb. righty equipped with a powerful fastball and good off-speed stuff, Tata is a homegrown talent who’s got major-league ready stuff. He could project to the bullpen, but with the fragility of the back-end of the rotation and after going 10-6 with a 3.81 ERA and 4-5 with a 3.05 ERA in his last two years in the minors (both in AAA), he’s likely to be kept a starter. His strikeout totals are about league-average, he’s 26 and well-polished, and if he gets a chance to crack the rotation, could be an instant fantasy option, especially with plenty of offense behind him.
Bust: Todd Jones
In the AL East edition of Sleepers & Busts, I said that fixing faulty mechanics was one of my favorite indicators of a breakout year. Conversely, when a pitcher struggles to regain his prior season form and can’t get his mechanics down pat in spring training, it’s an equally important sign of regression to me. According to Tigers’ pitching coach Chuck Hernandez, Jones’ throwing motion is completely off from last year and he can’t seem to fix it and it’s resulting in problems with his control. This is a big problem for prospective Jones’ owners considering his success hinges on his control. Without the 33 saves from last year, Jones’ 1-4 record, 4.26 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 6 blown saves, and 33/23 K/BB rate probably wouldn’t get him drafted in any format. His ability to limit walks and get out of tight jams has saved him, but without pinpoint control (which did regress from 2006 to 2007 as it was), he could be in for a rough year. He’ll be 40 in April and though Joel Zumaya is hurt, he’s capable of imploding and losing the job to whomever is next in line if he doesn’t get his mechanics under control.
Kansas City Royals
Surprise: Alex Gordon
The weight of the fantasy world was on Gordon’s shoulders last year as every fantasy magazine and website listed him not as the best fantasy prospect, but a top-5 3B in the making and a can’t miss young stud. Despite what would be considered a solid rookie debut for almost any other 23 year old two years removed from being drafted, he was considered a total bust and disappointment. In 2008, he gets to play in relative anonymity and could thrive in it as he’s done thus far this spring (hitting .310 in 29 at-bats with 5 RBI). He only hit .247 on the year, but finished with 15 HRs and 14 SBs and had a solid second half (.262-9-32). There are still holes in his swing and his power isn’t fully developed, but he showed he has the potential to reach the upper-echelon of first basemen in the near future if not this season. He showed noted improvement as the season progressed and the new coaching regime under a more player-friendly Trent Hillman should prove beneficial for him. He’s currently the 11th ranked 3B in terms of ADP, but has fallen until the 10th-12th round range as a result of many jaded owners passing on him this year. He’s got all the tools and it would be a shock, especially after his second-half improvement last year, if he didn’t at least improve upon last year’s production.
Sleeper: Luke Hochevar
The #1 overall pick in 2006, Hochevar hasn’t dominated the minors as expected despite his polish as an accomplished pitcher, but he still projects as an ace with a set of tools that enamors most scouts. He’s 24 years old and despite a shaky stint at AAA last year (1-3, 5.12 ERA in 10 starts), he’s impressed new manager Trey Hillman and remains in the mix for the 5th spot in the rotation. He’ll likely open in AAA to touch-up his stuff and better prepare him for major-league hitting, but his day is coming soon and with his resume’, he’ll be expected to make an instant impact.
Deep Sleeper: Mitch Maier
Maier has often been overlooked in discussion with the acquisition of Jose Guillen, the conversion of Mark Teahen, and super-prospect Chris Lubanski waiting in the wings in the minors, but Mitch Maier is a former first-round pick coming off a .279-14-62-7 season in AAA and has the make and mold of a quality back-up with future potential for starting. He’s gone from catching to second base to the outfield, a la Craig Biggio, and could project as a similar (albeit inferior) hitter if he improves his pitch selection and gets a chance to play everyday. His ceiling is lower than the big name prospects, but he’s the type of tough player managers love, and could crack the everyday lineup with a few breaks in 2008, despite expecting to open in AAA.
Bust: Brian Bannister
Bannister’s 12-9 record and 3.87 ERA in 2007 look good when isolated, but statistically, he was the luckiest pitcher in the American Lague last year and 3rd in all of baseball amongst pitchers who threw 120+ innings last year. Bannister’s BABIP (batting average on balls put in play) was .252, which often indicates either a high amount of luck or great defense (which the Royals didn’t have), considering the league-average is .290. His DIPS (defense-independent ERA) was a 4.40, slightly above league-average, which is about where most scouts see Bannister, a soft-tossing, groundball-inducing low-upside starter. If his ERA and BAA regress toward league-average in 2008, which is highly probable unless he has another great run of luck or drastically improves upon his mechanics, his mediocre win total and excessively low strikeout total (77 K’s in 165 IP last year) would make him a #5/#6 fantasy starter at best this season.
Minnesota Twins
Surprise: Jason Kubel
Kubel got his chance to be an everyday starter last year, and despite some nagging injuries and a slow start, played in 128 games and showed very good promise as a middle-to-bottom-of-the-order power hitter. He finished with a solid line of .273-13-65-5 in just over 400 at-bats last year; more importantly, he hit .303-6-28 in 178 second-half at-bats. He’s got 20-25 HR potential and can draw walks, which projects him as a 2.70-.280 hitter, who could flirt with a .400 OBP if he continues to improve his contact-hitting. He’ll get to focus on his hitting as the primary DH and in an improved lineup, could be a solid #3 OF this season despite little fanfare.Sleeper: Jason Pridie
Despite Denard Span’s homegrown prospect status and his close friendship with Torii Hunter, Pridie projects better as the Opening Day starting centerfielder in 2008. He’s a 24-year old left-handed hitter who posted a .318-10-39-12 line in 63 AAA games last season after a .290-4-27-14 line in AA to open the year. He’s a polished hitter, a good defensive player, possesses good all-around tools, and is smart at the plate and on the basepaths (as seen by 102 career minor-league steals in 150 attempts). He doesn’t have much doubles power and doesn’t draw a ton of walks, but could be a solid fixture at the bottom of the lineup and get plenty of RBI opportunities if he wins the CF job as expected.
Deep Sleeper: Matt Guerrier
Guerrier, a 29-year old converted starter, gets lost in a crowded bullpen at times with elite closer Joe Nathan, setup man Juan Rincon, homegrown talent Jesse Crain, and cult hero Pat Neshek, but his stats have benefited from being relegated often to middle-inning and clean-up work. He’s more than a glorified mop-up man, though, as seen by his 2.35 ERA, 3/1 K/BB rate, and .221 BAA in 88.0 innings pitched last year. He has the poise to handle late-inning work, the stuff to sit down hitters on a regular basis, and the endurance to pitch 80 games a year if needed and multiple innings at a time on occasion. If Nathan is dealt in his contract year, he could get a shot as the setup man, but either way, he’ll be a safe source of strikeouts, low ERA and WHIP, and holds.
Bust: Mike Lamb
Lamb is the type of player you love so much in a platoon or bench role that you cry he deserves a starting job, but when he gets one, he’s revealed as a league-average player. Lamb has made a name for himself as an excellent platooner and back-up for four seasons with the Astros, where he has shown good power (hitting 11-14 HRs each season despit less than 400 at-bats every time), posting good walk rates, and sporadically hitting for average. The problem is, he got plenty of time to rest, was often put in situations conducive to him, and is no more than a league-average bat against righties. He hit .289 last year and .307 in 2006, but only .236 in 2005. He could be end up producing a line like .280-18-80 as easily as he could struggle like Wes Helms with a starting gig and be exposed as a glorified platooner as a full-time player. The problem here is that the risks are greater than the low-ceiling rewards for the 32-year old.
