One way to prep for a draft is to target the players you want in advance and the round you expect to take them in, and the best way to do it is to know when each player is most likely to come off the board. An Average Draft Position Report gives you the data needed to do this successfully, including each player’s average draft slot, and the earliest and latest they’ve gone in any draft. Of course, each website’s ADP rankings will be exclusive to their website, as the default rankings on any website will greatly influence the ADP report, as well will the type of league. The following ADP report is based on the data from Mockdraftcentral.com using all draft results from standard 5×5 leagues over the past week. I’ll break it down by position and pick out the ones I found most surprising. It is worth noting that a standard league will usually consist of 12 teams with 23 man rosters, so the total number of picks would be 276 in a given draft.
Catcher
Highest Rated: Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
Average Draft Position: 29.27 (mid 3rd round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 22/38
Comments: Martinez has been doing battle with Russell Martin this preseason for the #1 fantasy catcher spot, but according to the ADP Report, he’s got a slight lead on him (Martin’s ADP is currently 31.08). This really shouldn’t come as a surprise considering Martinez is the better power hitter, drives in more runs, and has been putting up elite production from the catcher position a little bit longer than Martin has.
Surprisingly High: Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners
Average Draft Position: 124.08 (10th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 96/147
Comments: Most people would agree that there are five elite catchers this season (Martinez, Martin, Mauer, McCann, and Posada) and that if you don’t land one of them, you can wait until the latter stages of the draft to fill the position. Johjima is ranked as the 6th best catcher on the ADP and I have no qualms with that, but he is going, on average, 28 picks (approximately 2 1/2 rounds) before the #7 ranked catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Johjima is a good hitter and has shown good consistency in both his pro seasons, but there really shouldn’t be that much urgency expressed in landing Johjima after the top five are gone; he’s good, but he’s not that much better than the other top catchers still on the board.
Surprisingly Low: Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles
Average Draft Position: 254.96 (22nd round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 174/Undrafted
Comments: Hernandez is currently the fourteenth ranked catcher and that’s not too hard to believe since he hit .258-9-62 last year, but it’s a bit surprising a player with his offensive upside, despite coming off a down year, would be drafted behind an aging Jason Varitek, low upside A.J. Pierzynski, and a relative unknown in J.R. Towles. It was only two years ago that Hernandez hit .275-23-91 and was considered an up-and-coming talent at the position. He struggled with injuries last year, but he’s bulked up and is back at full strength for 2008 and has more upside than most of the catchers immediately listed ahead of him, despite sharing relatively equal injury risks.
First Base
Highest Rated: Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
Average Draft Position: 10.38 (late 1st round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 5/15
Comments: For the first time in a long time, Albert Pujols is no longer the top-ranked fantasy 1B, despite spending almost the entire preseason in the #1 position. He has since been passed up by power-hitting beast, Ryan Howard, as concerns surrounding his elbow and potential season-ending surgery loom. Howard has been pushing Pujols for top placement amongst first basemen for sometime now, but has finally pulled ahead of him for the first time, but by a very slight margin (Howard’s ADP is 10.38, Pujols’ is 10.90). Both are coming off relatively disappointing seasons, but considering Howard still hit 47 HRs (third-best in all of baseball) in his “disappointing season” and has no injury concerns, it’s not surprising he’s passed Pujols on the ADP report.
Surprisingly High: Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates
Average Draft Position: 219.76 (18th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 146/Undrafted
Comments: Upon scanning the first basemen in terms of ADP, no one actually stuck out as being drafted significantly too high. I chose LaRoche not because I disagreed with his 16th overall 1B ranking in terms of draft position, but because Joey Votto, the 17th ranked 1B and a Rookie of the Year frontrunner who could be on the verge of a monster season, is going, on average, 63 picks later. LaRoche has become infamous for his first half slumps and second-half rebounds and as a result is usually on the waiver wire of most leagues deep into July, early August, so I see no need to rush the affair. It’s especially surprising to me to see him going five full rounds earlier than Votto, who has more offensive upside and plays in a more conducive offensive environment.
Surprisingly Low: Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
Average Draft Position: 37.51 (early 4th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 27/49
Comments: For the second straight year, I think Morneau is being vastly undervalued in terms of draft position. His 2007 average did take a fifty-point dip from 2006, but he still put together a very good campaign, hitting .271-31-111. He doesn’t have the 40 HR-potential Mark Teixeira does and Teixeira will probably hit for average slightly better than Morneau will over the course of time, but I don’t see enough of a difference between the two to warrant a 16 pick gap. Teixeira is usually off the board by early-to-mid second round, but Morneau is teetering between late third to early fourth round value. Teixeira may have more power potential, but over the last two years, Morneau has more HRs and more RBIs, but despite this he has still fallen and sits only three picks higher than Derrek Lee in terms of ADP.
Second Base
Highest Rated: Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Average Draft Position: 8.18 (mid-to-late 1st round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 4/12
Comments: To no one’s surprise, Utley has a stranglehold on the 2B position for the second straight season and his ADP is one full round higher than the next highest second baseman, Brandon Phillips. Utley missed 30 games last year with injury and had he not gotten hurt, it might’ve been him who won MVP, not teammate Jimmy Rollins. Utley finished with a line of .332-22-103-9, raising his career batting average to .300, and posting back-to-back 40+ double, 100+ run, 100+ RBI seasons. If he stays healthy in all of 2008 (as he did for 2006 & 2007), he could even separate himself further from the pack and return to the 30-HR plateau.
Surprisingly High: Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers
Average Draft Position: 116.54 (9th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 81/147
Comments: I hate to use the same players from last year’s ADP reports in the same categories as I did a year ago because it makes it seem more like a personal vendetta against a particular player than providing unbiased observations, but I still don’t understand why Rickie Weeks has asserted himself as a surefire fantasy starter. He has a great power/speed combo and he’s in a great lineup, but he’s a terrible hitter with runners in scoring position, has too many holes in swing and strikes out too often, and has never played more than 118 games in a season. He’s got a skill set that tantalizes scouts and his upside is probably why he continues to be drafted over more productive, safer options, but he’s either eventually going to have put it all together or accept the bust label, and the time is running out. He’s made progress as shown by a good second half last year, but he’s still raw and still making the same mistakes he did as a rookie. He could be the #7 best fantasy 2B by season’s end (as his draft position would have you believe) just as easily as he could get hurt and hit .235 again, which surprises me that he’s being drafted higher than Howie Kendrick, Jeff Kent, and Aaron Hill.
Surprisingly Low: Placido Polanco, Detroit Tigers
Average Draft Position: 164.25 (13th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 112/207
Comments: Polanco is currently being drafted as the 12th highest 2B, which means he’s a borderline starter in standard leagues, despite hitting .341 last season. He does have a history of occasional injury and outside of his batting average, he doesn’t really contribute to any statistic at an above-average rate, but you would think he is still at least a top 10 2B. Last year he hit nine HRs and stole seven bases, nothing fantastic, but he did score 105 runs, and he has shown double-digit HR potential in the recent past (he hit 17 in 2004). While he’s not a great HR hitter, his slugging percentage is still respectable (thanks to 36 doubles last year) and he had the third-highest OPS amongst qualifying second basemen in 2007. It’s unreasonable to expect anyone to hit .341 in a season as Polanco did last year, but if anyone could duplicate it, he’d be a prime candidate as the hardest hitter in baseball to strikeout and as a player who has hit .338 and .341 in two of his three seasons in Detroit. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s likely to hit second and score plenty of runs in arguably the deepest lineup in baseball.
Shortstop
Highest Rated: Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins
Average Draft Position: 2.64 (early 1st round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 1/6
Comments: Ramirez is in a highly-contested battle for the top shortstop position with fellow division-mates, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins. It’s not surprising though that Ramirez has the edge in ADP after he finished just one HR shy of joining the 30-50 club, while hitting .332, stroking 48 doubles, and driving in 81 runs. He also scored 125 runs, a total that could take a dip without Miguel Cabrera in the lineup anymore, but a number that would still be impressive even if there was a 20% attrition rate in 2008. Meanwhile, Jose Reyes slumped to end the year and was pretty much dominated across the board from a statistics standpoint by Ramirez. His edge over the competition is narrow, but it is well-earned.
Surprisingly High: Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians
Average Draft Position: 172.12 (14th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 132/208
Comments: Peralta’s ADP and draft status are prime examples of fantasy owners’ uncontrollable urge to overdraft power hitters at every position. Peralta is currently the 13th ranked shortstop in terms of ADP, despite his 21 HRs being his only numbers above-average amongst the top shortstops in fantasy baseball. He did score an impressive 87 runs and should continue to do so in a solid lineup, but he’s a .266 lifetime hitter and despite his power, has never been a great source of RBIs. He had a solid season in 2008, hitting .270-21-72, but with no speed and high strikeout rate, we saw just how harmful he could be as a starting shortstop if he struggles with his power as he did in 2006 (hitting .257-13-68). Despite being a borderline-starter, he doesn’t really offer any other starting qualities besides his power and is being drafted two full rounds ahead of Khalil Greene, who is a similar hitter with more pop than Peralta.
Surprisingly Low: Yunel Escobar, Atlanta Braves
Average Draft Position: 195.71 (16th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 128/Undrafted
Comments: I can’t help but continue to wax poetically about Escobar every opportunity I get this preseason. Escobar’s 195.71 ADP means you can usually find him still available in the 15th-16th round range and after less inspiring options like the aforementioned Jhonny Peralta and J.J. Hardy. He’s a bit risky as a second-year starter, but after hitting .326-5-28-5 last year as a rookie, concerns should significantly diminish. He also carries 2B, SS, and 3B eligibility in a year with so few flexible utility infielders and will be an everyday starter despite his flexibility. Taking into consideration his potential, his usefulness as a bench player, and the lineup he’ll be hitting in, if he’s worth a top 10 round pick by next season.
Third Base
Highest Rated: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Average Draft Position: 1.07 (first overall)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 1/2
Comments: After hitting 54 HRs, driving in 156 runs, scoring 143 runs, stealing 24 bases, hitting .314, and posting a ridiculous 1.067 OPS, A-Rod has earned the undisputed #1 overall pick tag going into 2008. He re-upped with the Yankees with the richest contract in history, so more of the same should be expected from the future all-time home run king and man who hasn’t hit less than 35 homers, drove in less than 105 runs, or hit under .285 in a decade. His 1.07 ADP means that he’s going #1 overall in 93 out of every 100 drafts and the fact that he hasn’t gone lower than 2nd overall in any of them means that he’s the #2 pick in the other 7 drafts. History shows us that the #1 undisputed pick isn’t always the best option, but with his numbers, track record, and fantasy trade value, it’s almost entirely too difficult to pass him up.
Surprisingly High: Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs
Average Draft Position: 34.22 (late 3rd round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 26/45
Comments: Ramirez is what he is, a very good power hitter, who has stabilized a respectable batting average over the past four seasons. He’s been good for 30+ HRs in three of the last four years, 100+ RBIs in three of the last four years, and a .300 batting average in three of the last four years. The only thing is Ramirez isn’t ever going to get much better than he did in 2008, hitting .291-38-119. That’s not a bad thing per se, but after a 12-HR did in 2007, it’s surprising he’s still ranked ahead of the Rockies’ Garrett Atkins. He’s definitely top-tier starter quality, but he lacks the upside of Atkins or Ryan Zimmerman, and even though he strung together four very good seasons, he’s still a bit risky with injury concerns and his proneness to extended slumps and power outages (hitting only 6 HRs between June, July, and August last year). He’s going in the mid-to-late third, but he’s probably better suited as a 4th/5th round pick.
Surprisingly Low: Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
Average Draft Position: 90.22 (mid-7th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 57/116
Comments: Zimmerman’s statistical regression was inevitable last season on a moribund offense, in arguably the most favorable pitcher’s park in baseball, and having to shoulder the load of the entire team. Prior to a disappointing 2007, people were bridging the gap between him and David Wright, and while he’s not in that class yet, he showed in 2006 as the Rookie of the Year runner-up, he’s got top-5 3B potential with good support. The Nationals patched up the lineup and Zimmerman got a much needed year of seasoning as a team leader under his belt and the Nationals will leave cavernous RFK for a new more offensively-conducive stadium this season. He’s showed great endurance playing every game last season, and though his average dipped a bit, his power numbers and walk-to-strikeout rate remained nearly identical. At age 23 on a team on the rise, he could be due for the breakout year many wanted to see last year. He hit nearly 30 points higher after the All-Star break and finished strong, making him a very good value as the #9 ranked 3B in terms of ADP.
Outfield
Highest Rated: Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
Average Draft Position: 5.19 (mid-1st round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 2/9
Comments: Holliday is the only outfielder whose ADP falls in the first round of standard-sized leagues and despite a thinner than usual outfield pool, he might be a better #1 overall OF than Alfonso Soriano was a year ago. Holliday hit .340-36-137-11 and is entrenched in one of the best lineups in baseball and gets to play his home games in the boombox that is Coors Field. Some may write Holliday off as a top-tier outfielder because he gets to play his home games at Coors (where he hit .376-25-82 last year), but that isn’t going to change anytime soon and we saw Larry Walker put up top-notch fantasy production year in and out despite uninspiring home/away splits. Holliday has tremendous power, will drive in and score triple-digit run totals, and he’s still a well-above-average hitter on the road, hitting .301-11-55 away from Coors last year, en route to earning the #1 OF spot for 2008.
Surprisingly High: Nick Swisher, Chicago White Sox
Average Draft Position: 83.79 (late 6th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 63/108
Comments: Like Rickie Weeks, this is the second straight year I find Nick Swisher’s draft position well higher than I would ever take him. He’s currently ranked as the 24th drafted outfielder, making him a borderline #2 OF in standard-sized leagues, despite hitting .262-22-78 last year. Perhaps a trade out of pitcher-friendly Oakland to a more stable White Sox lineup will give him a power boost, but it’s doubtful it will work wonders on his .251 lifetime AVG. He’s a better power hitter than his 22 HRs and 78 RBIs indicate and he could hit 30 home runs in any given season, but other than his ability to draw walks (something most leagues don’t directly reward), he possesses little speed, doesn’t score a ton of runs, and has never topped 100 RBIs. He’s currently being drafted ahead of Hideki Matsui, Jason Bay, and Matt Kemp.
Surprisingly High: Johnny Damon, New York Yankees
Average Draft Position: 122.44 (10th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 101/148
Comments: Damon looked like he aged about five years both at the plate and in the field over the course of last season and though he greatly benefited from a late-season hot streak, he still finished with an uninspiring line of .270-12-63-27. His best asset last year was his 93 runs scored, something owners should continue to benefit from in a great lineup, but owners should be cautious that Damon could lose the leadoff spot after hitting .270 last year and posting his lowest OBP in four years. He’s still sharp on the basepaths, but at age 34, it’s likely he’s turning into a more power-emphatic hitter than the speed/average producer he was in years past. The problem for Damon owners is he’s only hit more than 20 HRs once in his career and as his AVG continues to decline (as it did last year for the third straight year), he’s probably best suited as a back-up, despite being drafted as a starter.
i>Surprisingly Low: Magglio Ordonez, Detroit Tigers
Average Draft Position: 32.34 (mid-to-late 3rd round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 23/41
Comments: Some players’ reputations will be forever tainted because of the most untimely injuries and such is likely the case for Magglio Ordonez. In his first six seasons as a pro, he played 145+ games every season and has only missed twelve games over the last two years. In between, though, just as Ordonez was on the verge of reaching superstar status, he had back-to-back injury-riddled campaigns in 2004 and 2005, and he probably single-handedly ruined many teams chances of winning championships those two years. The facts stand, though, Ordonez has been fully healthy for 8 of his 10 pro seasons, and in each of those healthy seasons has hit at least 24 home runs, drove in 100 runs every year except once (when he had 99 RBIs in 2003), and has maintained a lifetime .312 AVG. Since coming back from injury, he’s looked better than ever, despite his home run power tailing off a bit, and put up Ted Williams-esque production last year with 54 doubles, 28 HRs, 139 RBIs, a 76/79 BB/K rate, hitting .363, and slugging .595. It may have been a bit over his head, but not by much, and has he continues to hit in the heart of baseball’s best lineup, more of the same should be expected – which is why it is so surprising that he is the 12th ranked OF in terms of ADP (making him a borderline #1 OF in standard formats).
Surprisingly Low: Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles
Average Draft Position: 47.38 (late 4th round, early 5th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 31/63
Comments: Markakis has thrived in Baltimore with little fanfare as the team has struggled to be competitive and has been stripped of its stars, which has been a blessing in disguise for fantasy owners who know what he is capable of accomplishing. In his second season, he continued the trend of a slow start followed by a red-hot second half, but this time, the numbers were better all-around. He’s continuing to improve as the 24-year old centerpiece of the Orioles’ lineup and while he could have a minor setback like Ryan Zimmerman did shouldering the load for the Nats last year, it’s hard to argue with his numbers: 23 HRs, 112 RBI, 18 SB, and a .300 AVG. Despite his tremendous upside, his success thus far, and the fact that he’s building off of a .325-14-61-9 second half, he’s still falling to the late fourth, early fifth rounds of most drafts, a boon for owners, considering his youth and 30/30 potential.
Starting Pitchers
Highest Rated: Johan Santana, New York Mets
Average Draft Position: 13.01 (late 1st round, early 2nd round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 2/19
Comments: For the first time since 2003, last year was not a Cy Young-worthy season from Johan Santana and he was out-produced and performed by a handful of young pitchers. Nevertheless, he was the #1 starting pitcher by such a wide margin and long period of time that even if he wasn’t the best last season, he’s still the odds-on favorite to be the best this season. He still went 15-13 with a 3.33 ERA and 235 K, but those will be expected to be improved upon, considering his career season averages and the fact that he is now a New York Met. The Mets will give him better run support and he’ll get to avoid facing the Indians, who he went 0-5 against in 6 starts last year, and should benefit from his new home park in a lighter-hitting division and league. His imminent rebound expected and his past credentials justify him as the #1 selected SP despite a setback season in 2007.
Surprisingly High: Chris Young, San Diego Padres
Average Draft Position: 85.88 (early 7th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 72/108
Comments: Prior to last season, Chris Young was an above-average pitcher. He wasn’t great, but he was a serviceable #3 fantasy starter with a good strikeout rate and improve peripherals. In 2007, Young broke out in the first half of the year, nearly outshining teammate and Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy, going 8-3 with a 2.00 ERA and 99 Ks in 103.2 IP. While continuing his success in July and leading the majors in opposing batting average, Young suffered an oblique injury on July 24th that put him on the 15-day DL, but he did not come back as the same pitcher. In August and September, he made a combined ten starts, going 0-5 with a 5.97 ERA to finish the season. He’s rehabbed the injury and claims to be back at 100%, but his velocity is down this spring (and he only threw about 85-88mph before the injury), and with his frame (at 6’10’’) and pitching motion, he could be a high risk for re-injury in the future. Obviously, the rewards can be bountiful, but they’ll come with high risk of injury and attrition, which makes it surprising that he’s entrenched as a #2 fantasy starter this year despite being at best a #3 for his entire career, the first half of last year excluded.
Surprisingly High: Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs
Average Draft Position: 132.42 (11th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 110/150
Comments: Lilly had the best year of his career and his first full-season sub-4.00 ERA in his first year with the Cubs. He probably benefited from the league switch to the NL, but even with 15 wins, 174 strikeouts, and a 3.83 ERA at age 32, he tops out as a fantasy #3/#4 starter. Coming off his career year of 2007, he’s currently 31st amongst starting pitchers in ADP, meaning he’s being drafted a mid-tier #3 starter, but more importantly, over the likes of Chad Billingsley and superprospects Yovani Gallardo and Phil Hughes, all with much higher ceilings and better run support. Lilly has been solid in the last couple of seasons, but he’s more of a veteran staff filler in fantasy leagues than the type of pitcher than can push you over the top, like some of the higher-upside young pitchers he’s being taken ahead of. A slight regression to his career averages and he’s not that distinguishable from the best available waiver wire starters.
Surprisingly Low: Aaron Harang, Cincinnati Reds
Average Draft Position: 70.76 (late 6th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 52/88
Comments: Harang has been a model for consistency, endurance, and successful power pitching as the Reds’ ace for the last three seasons, thriving despite his team’s lack of success and making half his starts in a hitter’s park. Harang is the glamorous version of Livan Hernandez at his peak; he’s young, he can pitch 200+ innings annually, pitches late in games to pick up hard-fought wins, and has a great strikeout rate. He’ll give up a lot of HRs, but limits his mistakes, and has seen his ERA, strikeout total, and WHIP improve each of the last three seasons. He’s also got 8 complete games and 3 shutouts over the last two seasons, but is still barely cracking fantasy ace status as the 12th starter selected on average, according to the ADP report. He’s currently behind an injured John Lackey, Carlos Zambrano, who he surpassed last season as the NL Central’s best starter, and Dan Haren, who despite a breakout year in 2007, had a lower strikeout rate, one less win, and a higher WHIP than Harang last year.
Surprisingly Low: Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
Average Draft Position: 134.64 (11th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 108/162
Comments: Gallardo has been hyped up as a future ace and strikeout king since dominating rookie ball in 2004. He sailed through every stop in the minors, always posting a sub-3.00 ERA, a strikeout rate greater than 1 K/IP, and throwing electrifying stuff, en route to garnering more publicity and fanfare as he approached the majors. Then, he finally broke through to the big leagues in 2007 and did not disappoint, going 9-5 with a 3.67 ERA and striking out 101 in 110.1 IP. His rookie accomplishments get even better when you take into consideration he had a slip-up at hitter-friendly Coors Field last year, allowing 11 ER in 2.2 IP, and with that aberration removed from his stats, he would’ve finished with a 2.86 ERA. It’s surprising, though, considering his track record, fanfare, pedigree, pitching arsenal, strikeout rate, and fact that he’s secured the # spot on a good team in a bad division, that he’s not being championed as at least a #2 fantasy starter. Instead, he’s being drafted as a #3, behind the likes of Ted Lilly and John Maine, as well as fellow youngsters Tim Lincecum and Rich Hill. Gallardo may be young and may only have 17 starts under his belt, but the potential rewards, low risk factor, and fact that he’ll get to match up against inferior #3 starters all year, should have his value on the verge of skyrocketing to potential ace status.
Relief Pitchers
Highest Rated: Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Average Draft Position: 45.74 (mid-to-late 4th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 32/58
Comments: It seems as if there are four closers this preseason (Papelbon, Putz, Nathan, or K-Rod) that are worthy of #1 RP status. The winner appears to be Papelbon, the owner of a 10.86K/9IP rate, 72 saves, and owner of a miniscule 1.34 ERA over the last two seasons since becoming the Red Sox closer. He’s shown no weaknesses, has dominated from start to finish in both seasons, benefits from plenty of save opportunities on a winning ball club coming off a World Series championship, and has not faltered under pressure. Unlike K-Rod, he has no contract issues, unlike Nathan, he won’t have to worry about save opportunities, and unlike Putz, he’s strung together back-to-back historically great seasons. He’ll be 27 this season and in his third year as Boston’s stopper, which means he probably hasn’t even peaked yet. This is a scary thought considering the success he’s had already, which further justifies his #1 RP status in terms of draft position.
Surprisingly High: Manny Corpas, Colorado Rockies
Average Draft Position: 123.18 (10th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 96/145
Comments: Corpas had a great debut as closer, taking over for incumbent Brian Fuentes in the second half of the season, and help guiding the team to the World Series last year. He made 34 post-All Star Break appearances, picked up 18 saves, striking out 25 in 35.0 IP, and posting a 1.54 ERA, but without any kind of track record indicating he will pitch at this level annually, it’s surprising he was so quickly rewarded with a huge contract from the Rockies and has rocketed up the ADP charts. He was solid but unspectacular for most of his minor league career prior to posting a 0.98 ERA in AA in 2006, but his rookie season in the majors was rather pedestrian. He could be bound for great things, but he’ll need to cut down on his HR rate (no easy task while pitching at Coors), still have to fend off Fuentes for saves, and improve his strikeout rate if he’s to have #1 closer value, as he’s already being drafted as in 2008 mock drafts.
Surprisingly Low: Billy Wagner, New York Mets
Average Draft Position: 94.20 (8th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 78/111
Comments: There’s really nothing else Billy Wagner can do or improve upon as a closer, but yet he hasn’t climbed into that upper-echelon of closers, in terms of ADP, in his two seasons as a Met. Since 2001, Wagner has seven straight sub-2.75 ERA seasons all with strikeout rates well above 1 K/IP, and all but one (a 2004 season hindered by injury) resulting in 34 or more saves. Wagner is still a strikeout king amongst closers and though he’s become more hittable (.219 and .216 opposing batting averages as a Met after five straight sub-.200 BAAs), he’s still producing near peak levels at age 36. He has 74 saves in his two seasons as a Met (2 more than Papelbon in that timespan), and will continue to rack them up as the undisputed closer on a team expected to be amongst the winningest teams in baseball in 2008. Despite his production, reliability, and high chance of save opportunities this season, he is drafted as the 8th closer overall, behind less reliable options such as Francisco Cordero and Jose Valverde, both on new teams expected to be in the middle-of-the-pack in the NL Central and both with much higher likelihoods of regressing or imploding.
