Update: The Nationals made several moves recently as they begin to finalize their starting rotation, but will have to do it without their top two starters going into the spring. Last year’s ace, Shawn Hill, will open the year on the 15-day DL as he continues from a right forearm injury from last season and 2005 & 2006 ace John Patterson was released as a result of a “lack of performance” with a 7.00 ERA this spring. Finally, the team purchased the contract of non-roster invitee Odalis Perez, who after back-to-back disappointing seasons with the Royals could be in the mix for the Opening Day start. With the most recent moves, the Nats’ projected Opening Day rotation is bordering on disastrous with Perez, Tim Redding, Jason Bergmann, Matt Chico, and John Lannan.
The View: There are quite a few developments here that could have fantasy relevance. First, John Patterson’s release apparently did not have anything to do with his recent arm injuries. He was getting shelled this spring and his fastball was peaking in the mid-80’s. It’s a bit conspicuous, considering Patterson has the control and stuff to get by without a blazing fastball and the state of the rotation is pretty shaky at this point without him. Manager Manny Acta said the organization didn’t think he was worth the risk again and GM Jim Bowden said he’s welcome to come back as a minor leaguer. Considering there seems to be something at play behind the scenes here and the decision wasn’t entirely performance-based, it’s very possible Patterson could get scooped up rather quickly and inserted into another team’s rotation. Possible suitors could include: Los Angeles Angels (who will be without Lackey and Escobar for at least a month), Florida (where he could feasibly be their ace tomorrow), Texas (who has some serious back-of-the-rotation questions), and Toronto (who lost Casey Janssen for the season after planning on making him their #4 starter and have all but given up on Gustavo Chacin). He’ll probably never be as good as his 2005 season and he’s not a great strikeout pitcher, but on a competitive team, he could be a solid back-end fantasy starter, despite injury risks.
Shawn Hill’s injury doesn’t appear to be serious and it seems to be more of a precautionary measure. Nevertheless, he was hurt on and off last season and already has a bit of a history with injury concerns despite his young age. He’s expected be to be activated on April 13 (only missing two starts), but that’s not written in ink. The staff definitely needs him back, but with this expected to be another lost season, don’t expect him to be rushed, consider this injury has already lingered for months. When healthy, he’s a good back-end fantasy starter, but right now, he’s best left on the waiver wire unless you have the room to stash him on the DL.
Odalis Perez was expected to get his major-league contract purchased from the day he signed with the Nationals, considering the rotation prospects, but it’s still too soon to consider him a viable fantasy starter. He had a good showing this spring and he’ll be at the top of this rotation, but he’s always had the look and tools of a front line starter, he just hasn’t had the focus to turn his potential into results. We saw Dmitri Young clean up his act under similar circumstances and Perez could see the rebirth of his career under the well-respected Manny Acta, but like the rest of the rotation, his immediate value is still minimal. He’s coming off a 8-11 season with the Royals, where he posted a 5.57 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and an eyesore of a BAA at .318. He also posted his worst strikeout rate of his career with 64 in 137.1 innings. He never really looked better than mediocre at any point last season and his best month was May, where he went 0-2 with a 4.40 ERA and 14 K in 30 IP. Set the bar low right now, regardless of where he sits in the rotation.
As far as the rest of the rotation is concerned, Tim Redding is coming off the best half-season of his career, is unlikely to duplicate last year’s success, and will have a tenuous grip on his job as the veteran target with pitching prospects closer than they appear in his rear view mirror. Jason Bergmann had a strong showing last year and unlike the rest of the team, can be an above-average strikeout pitcher, but he has low endurance, and is best suited for the bullpen. Matt Chico is a lefty with a cannon for an arm and repeatedly hit high 90’s with his fastball. The problem is his control is awful and despite his velocity, isn’t a strikeout pitcher. He’s still very raw, but as he continues to hone his skills, he could be a useful fantasy piece a year or two down the road. Finally, John Lannan is another young lefty who the team has become pretty high on. He plowed through A+ ball (6-0, 2.13 ERA), AA ball (3-2, 3.25 ERA), and AAA ball (3-1, 1.66 ERA) before climbing the prospect ladder to the majors. He showed pretty good poise for a pitcher, who one year earlier was toiling in A ball, and went 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in 6 starts. He’s had control issues every step of the way despite his success and won’t be a pitcher who racks up strikeouts. Despite this, he’s got a god arm and has impressed scouts this spring. The problem is, even if he posts similar numbers to last year’s major outing, he’ll likely be the odd man out when Shawn Hill is ready to return.
With the rotation in a state of chaos, all the veteran free agent pitchers probably have their agents zeroing in on Washington, in hopes of not having to settle for a minor-league deal elsewhere. The first and most prominent is Jeff Weaver, whose brother, Jered, confirmed he is in talks with the Nationals to sign a contract. The Nationals haven’t officially confirmed their interest, but it does make sense. Weaver, like Perez, needs a career revival in a low-key environment or he’s in risk of losing his “major league starter” status. Other names that could be pursued include: Freddy Garcia (if and when he’s ready to make his return), Rodrigo Lopez (health also pending), and Eric Milton (who could fill a lefty void if Chico and Lannan aren’t ready for a full season in the rotation). Right now, other than Garcia, no one is really worth tracking in terms of fantasy value.
