Atlanta Braves
Surprise: Matt Diaz
Diaz spent the first five years of his career as an underappreciated farmhand for the Rays, then spent a year in Kansas City where they tried converting him to catcher, before joining the Braves and spending the last two years as one of the best platoon hitters in baseball. He’s hit for average at every stop in the majors (.320 lifetime average) and minors (.315 lifetime average), but this will be his first opportunity as a full-time starter. Unlike most platooners, he can hit both lefties (.356 in 2007) and righties (.318 in 2007), and really doesn’t have any holes in his swing. His power is mediocre, but in a full season, could make a run at 20 HRs and has underrated speed. He may only do everything else average, but he can slap singles better than just about anyone else in the NL and though he seems to be stuck with the platoon tag, he could surprise a lot of people by hitting .300+ with some pop in his first full-season workload.
Sleeper: Yunel Escobar
There’s not much left for me to say about Escobar that I haven’t already said in about five other articles, but when you consider the environment he’ll be playing, his hitting talents, his low ADP, and the fact that he carries three infield position flexibility, he might be the most undervalued player going into the season. He hit .326-5-28-5, walked 27 times to only 44 strikeouts, and scored 54 runs in just over a half-season’s work. The Havana, Cuba native joined the Braves at age 22 and only played 223 minor league games before his call-up. His power is still developing and with his 6’2’’ 200 lb. frame, he could be a 15-20 HR hitter in due time. He’s already got a great betting eye, good speed, and game-changing abilities, and he’ll get every opportunity to flaunt them on a full-season basis this year as the starting shortstop atop of a productive lineup.
Deep Sleeper: Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens, who came over from Detroit with only 30.2 IP in his career above AA, is now the favorite for the 5th rotation spot with a strong spring and Mike Hampton likely to open the season on the DL. Jurrjens allowed only one run in his first nine innings of work this spring and is building off a solid 2007 season in which he went 7-5 with a 3.20 ERA in 19 AA starts and held his own in his major-league debut as a 21-year old last season, going 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA in 7 starts. He’s got above-average command of his pitches and though he only struck out 13 in 30.2 major league innings last year, he was a near 1 K/IP strikeout pitcher in the minors. He doesn’t have tremendous upside, but he’s pretty developed for a 22-year old with limited high-minors experience and could have a quietly solid season with a chance to win a good number of games with average peripherals and an impressive home run allowed rate.
Bust: Tom Glavine
Glavine’s season-ending numbers look pretty good on paper: 13 wins, 4.45 ERA, 1.41 WHIP. Then, when you consider he only struck out 89 in 200.1 IP of work and had a BAA of .281 (the third-worst in his 21-year career) as a result of declining velocity, it’s hard to imagine him duplicating last year’s numbers without a good amount of luck. He returns to the Braves, who probably won’t get him the 5.21 runs per start the Mets got him last year or the .277 BABIP (as a result of very good defense), so he’ll probably have to pitch better than he did a year ago, which is asking a lot from a 42-year old. It’s also asking a lot from a pitcher who looked like he started to wear down in June before completely collapsing at the end of the season. Glavine’s ERA only jumped slightly in the second half of the season, but his BAA was 28 points higher and only struck out 36 in 84.0 IP and had a 6.10 ERA in September.
Florida Marlins
Surprise: Matt Lindstrom
Lindstrom spent all of last season as a set-up man and late-inning reliever for the Marlins without recording a save, and with Kevin Gregg set as the team’s closer, he’s not going to draw very much attention this offseason. The save opportunities will be limited regardless who is the closer in Florida, but Gregg, coming off a career year and as an established reliever, could have good trade value for the rebuilding Marlins. Gregg also has a relatively high bust factor with a very mediocre track record, a career 4.59 ERA in the minors, and benefiting from a .253 opposing batting average on balls put in play (well above league-average .290, indicating a high degree of luck last year). Lindstrom never pitched above AA before last year, when he made 71 appearances, boasting a 62/21 K/BB rate, a 3.09 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and allowing only 2 HRs in 67.0 IP and as he continued to acquiesce himself to the majors, only got better. In the second half, he had a 2.35 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 32 appearances. He’s an intimidating presence at 6’5’’ with a fastball in the upper nineties and surprisingly good control – he has all the tools needed to be a closer and with the Marlins in rebuilding mode, may get his chance to garner saves in 2008.
Sleeper: Jeremy Hermida
Easier said than done, the only thing that is preventing Hermida from achieving stardom is his (lack of) health. He was a headlining sleeper as a rookie in 2006, but his full-season debut was cut short after 99 games and he hit .251-5-28. He continued the trend last year, but lasted 123 games this time around and showed great offensive upside, hitting .296-18-63 on the year, and was white-hot down the stretch, posting a .340-10-36 line in the second half. He’s got great size, good power, an ability to draw walks, and is most likely to replace Miguel Cabrera as the team’s primary source of RBIs. He has legitimate 30 HR potential and has been a significantly better hitter outside of his pitcher-friendly home park. If he lasts 123 games as he did last year (or more), he should be an automatic fantasy starter. The only problem is he’s already being hampered by a hamstring injury, but all signs point to him being a go on Opening Day and building off last year’s momentum. He can currently be drafted as a bench player so the risk is pretty minimal right now.
Deep Sleeper: Andrew Miller
The Tigers’ first-round pick in 2006, Miller would’ve probably gone #1 overall if it weren’t for signability issues. At UNC, he was one of the most polished, accomplished college pitchers in recent history and carried his success over, dominating hitters at the low minor league levels. He powered his way through the Tigers’ system before making 13 starts in the majors last year and getting dealt to the Marlins this offseason, where he’ll likely take over as staff ace. Despite his limited professional experience, Miller is ready for the majors. He’s 6’6’’ with a fastball in the upper-to-mid 90’s, a slider with great movement, and good control. His 2007 numbers don’t look very impressive, but note that seven of his starts came on the road, and three of six home starts were against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets, three of the best lineups in baseball. As expected, he had a high HRA rate, but a polished lefty like he is, should develop quickly in a low-pressured, pitcher-friendly environment in Florida as he continues to make strides of improvement with only 19 career starts above A-ball.
Bust: Sergio Mitre
Mitre will invariably be on the draft boards of most teams in each league thanks good size, good stuff, being at a peak age of 27, and coming off a season with a 4.65 ERA and 2/1 K/BB rate. Before his 15-start hot streak before the All-Star break last year, his best stint was posting a 5.37 ERA in seven starts and fourteen mop-up jobs for the Cubs in 2005. After the All-Star break, his ERA rose nearly 5 full runs, posting a near 1/1 K/BB rate (25:22), and getting shellacked with a .348 opposing batting average. There’s nothing in Mitre’s resume to indicate another white-hot half-season and without one, he’s a mediocre pitcher with a high rate of implosion.
New York Mets
Surprise: Pedro Martinez
After missing nearly the entire season in 2007 and looking like his career may be in jeopardy, Pedro fought through injury, made his return in September and revived his career. In his five starts last year, he looked like the Pedro of old, pitching in high pressure situations and not faltering, going 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA while striking out 32 in 28.0 innings of work. His velocity was down and he was much more hittable than he was in his prime, but he was able to get out jams and display more craftiness than ever. He’s carried over his hot streak and good health to the spring, where’s he off to another good start. He’s hitting about 90 mph on his fastball (higher than last year), but he looks sharp enough where that’s all the velocity he’ll need to succeed. He may be 36, but he’s the type of pitcher who projects well into his early-40’s; he just needs to stay healthy. People forget that he’s only two seasons removed from being one of the best pitchers in fantasy baseball and he might able to return to similar form with little mileage on his arm over the past two years.
Sleeper: Ryan Church
Church isn’t your typical Met starter in that, other than he’s white, he’s a low-key producer who won’t steal headlines. He’s a well-rounded hitter entering a late peak at age 29 and has overcome injuries early on in his career. He’ll benefit with a better protection in a stronger lineup in a more conducive offensive atmosphere. Last year, he hit .272-15-70 with the Nats and outside of cavernous RFK stadium, hit .278-10-40 in 70 games, which is the split the Mets are hoping Church will extrapolate upon in 2008. He can be inconsistent from month-to-month, but this will be his first opportunity to secure a starting job on a good offense and outside of Washington. He has the capabilities to hit 20 HRs and post a respectable average in a much better situation in 2008.
Deep Sleeper: Angel Pagan
With Moises Alou opening the season on the DL and the Mets not ready to turn the job over to prospect Fernando Martinez, it creates a void in left field that will likely be filled by Pagan. He was originally drafted by the Mets in 1999 before making his debut with the Cubs and ultimately getting traded back to the Mets this offseason. He’s a 25-year old switch hitter, who excels in every facet of the game without overwhelming production. His power has improved as he’s reached the majors, and though he only has 8 career stolen bases in 148 minor-league games, he was held back often as a Cub and isn’t far removed from his 63 stolen base season in AA in 2004. As a back-up with the Cubs, he showed good versatility, handling all three outfield spots and being able to bat almost anywhere in the lineup. He got off to a white-hot start this spring, hitting .471 as March 11th, and though he cooled down a bit, is hitting .333 in 60 at-bats and has been the most impressive and consistent Met hitter in spring training. He should open the season as the starting leftfielder, and if he holds his own, should be a productive asset off the bench when Alou finally returns.
Bust: Orlando Hernandez
El Duque turned around a dismal 2006 season with the Diamondbacks, where he was 2-4 with a 6.11 ERA, when he was dealt to New York and posted an ERA two runs lower with the Mets. Despite his career rebound, he was still a fragile pitcher, who despite good movement and an above-average strikeout rate, was error-prone with league-average peripherals. Then last season, he put up arguably the best half-season of his career at age 38 (?), despite giving up 10 HRs in 78.0 IP, an uninspiring K/BB rate, yet posted a 3.22 ERA while hitters only hit .210 against him. In the second half, his ERA rose a full run, he gave up the long ball at a much higher rate, but yet only gave up a .202 BAA. Further scrutiny of El Duque’s unexplained success revealed the lowest BABIP (batting average on balls put in play) of all pitchers with 100+ IP in 2007 with a .214 (21 points lower than the next lowest), indicating that he was arguably the luckiest pitcher in baseball by a good margin last year. He’ll still have a good offense and defense to work with, but at his age, with his league average peripherals, with average luck, he’s but an average pitcher, with a high risk of injury.
Philadelphia Phillies
Surprise: Brett Myers
Many are worried about whether Myers is still worthy of ace status after a disappointing 2007 season. It’s true Myers got off to a bad start in the rotation before getting hurt, but he only made three starts before his injury (not nearly enough work to project him struggling in the rotation the whole season if healthy). He came back and despite having no extensive relief experience in his career was named closer by manager Charlie Manuel. He rebuilt his arm strength and worked out the kinks in his mechanics despite learning a new role and posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the three months when he was the closer. He finished the year with 83 strikeouts in 68.2 IP and his lowest single-season BAA of his career (.234). Now, he’s back as a starter, spending the spring reestablishing his endurance, and has looked good enough to win the Opening Day start over phenom Cole Hamels. Prior to last season, as the staff ace in 2005 & 2006, Myers averaged 12.5 wins, 199 strikeouts, with a 3.81 ERA. Expect him to post similar production again back at full strength and as a full-time starter in 2008.
Sleeper: Jayson Werth
Werth looked like he was on the verge of reaching his potential after a solid 2004 with the Dodgers. He struggled in 2005, despite flashing good speed, and missed all of 2006 with injury. He came back with the Phillies last year and despite his lack of experience and success in the recent past, he showed enough talent to win a roster spot. As a back-up/injury fill-in/platooner, he hit .298-8-49 in only 255 at-bats, while getting on base at a .404 clip and tacking on seven steals. With his size (6’5’’, 210), strength, and versatile tool set, he could be a version of Corey Hart-lite in 2008 in a great lineup in a glorious hitter’s park. He’s only 28 and could be entering his peak. He’ll need to shed a potential platoon with Geoff Jenkins, but if he hits like he did to finish 2007 (.329-5-39-7 in the second half), he shouldn’t have a problem securing an everyday job.
Deep Sleeper: Greg Dobbs
Dobbs will open the season relegated to back-up and pinch-hitting duty, but like Werth, has an all-around good offensive skill set and can really mash against righties. He’s a good pinch hitter, can handle all the corner spots (1B, 3B, RF, LF), is a hard worker, can draw walks, and has the potential to grow and feasibly force a platoon at third base with Pedro Feliz. He’s the best lefty hitter on the bench and after .272-10-55 in mop-up work last year, has earned the respect of the staff and will continue to get extended playing time. If he forces the platoon, he could have solid value in NL-only leagues, and should injury strike, he could be on the precipice of an everyday job, where he would project roughly as a Kevin Youkilis-type producer, without the excessive walk rate.
Bust: Pedro Feliz
Example #1,678,392 of how power hitters are overvalued in fantasy baseball. Feliz still is drafted as a borderline starter in some formats simply because he has hit 20 HRs in each of the last four seasons. He did drive in 98 once over that span, but his next best RBI total was 84. He’s never scored more than 75 runs, has never stolen more than 5 bases, and has hit .250 or lower in four of his five full seasons of work. It’s possible that his all-around production struggled due to a poor lineup and a pitcher’s division, but it’s also possible that if he only hit 15 HRs a year, no one would care. The difference between 15 and 20 HRs at 3B won’t win you a championship. If he was a utility player with the Phillies (as he probably should be) and had multi-position eligibility, he’d probably make for a good fantasy bench player. Unfortunately, with only eligibility at 3B, there are much better options available.
Washington Nationals
Surprise: Lastings Milledge
Milledge earned a bad reputation for his off-the-field issues and questionable personality and work ethic as a Met, but has developed well in each of the last two seasons despite the distractions. He was dealt to the Nationals where he’ll get the opportunity to focus on one position, play everyday, and continue to grow as a cornerstone of the franchise. Despite bouncing from majors to minors, to right, center, and left field, and falling out of favor with the coaching staff, he went on to hit a solid .272-7-29 in 181 at-bats as a 22-year old. He’s bulked up and looks like he could flirt with 15-20 HRs coming off a solid showing last year. He’s not a fantasy starter yet, but he’s worth stashing on the bench in hopes he’ll quickly develop into a five-category producer playing everyday. If he gets to bat behind Ryan Zimmerman, it could work wonders for his stats and make him a starter-quality fantasy outfielder when it’s all said and done this year.
Sleeper: Nick Johnson
Johnson has earned one of the biggest injury red flags amongst all position players and while it’s somewhat deserved, it’s safe to say that his freak injury could’ve happened to anyone and would’ve likely ended their season, too. He missed all of 2007, but in the two years prior, played 278 games, and averaged a line of .290-19-76-6 despite playing in RFK and the team in rebuilding mode. He looked like he wouldn’t even get a sniff at the majors this year, and as a result, has zero draft value right now. Despite this, he’s looked good this spring, is expected to open the season on the roster, and there are whispers that he will at least force a platoon with Dmitri Young at 1B, while Young is shopped around
Deep Sleeper: Collin Balester
With the injury to Shawn Hill and the release of John Patterson, the Nationals have an extremely thin and unstable rotation and plenty of mid-to-upper level pitching prospects waiting in the wings. One of the most qualified, respected, and accomplished prospect is Collin Balester, who unlike his competitors hasn’t had any injury concerns, already had success above AA, and projects as a top-of-the-rotation starter within the next 2-3 years. Balester was the Nats’ #1 ranked prospect according to Baseball America last year and didn’t disappoint, making 27 starts between AA and AAA, posting a sub 4.00 ERA, striking out approximately 7 hitters per nine innings and showing good movement on his pitches. He’s still only 21, but has swiftly conquered the minor league ranks, and as a 6’5’’ righty with good command, could be the first big-name prospect to crack the rotation this year and could have moderate success immediately.
Bust: Dmitri Young
Young was a feel-good story last year, hitting .320 en route to winning Comeback player of the Year, but it looks like the Honeymoon won’t last much longer. First, it appeared as if he put on some of the weight he lost last spring, then he strained his side and missed the start of spring training, and now he’s being challenged for playing time and could platoon with Nick Johnson. With a potential logjam at first, it’s Young, not the oft-injured Johnson, whose name is being whispered in trade rumors and it sounds to an outsider like the Nats are growing tired of Young already after one season. Even if he keeps his head on straight, stays healthy and his weight has no adverse effects on him, it would extremely optimistic to expect him to duplicate his .320/.378/.491 2007 season. His power looked like it regressed despite his re-emergence as a contact hitter and he didn’t finish strong, hitting 51 points lower in the second half of the season with only 5 HRs and 15 doubles. A regression is naturally expected at age 34, but now he’ll have an uphill battle to be an everyday player again in 2008.
