AL East New Player Projections

The 2008 fantasy baseball season is upon us early this year (disgustingly early actually) and like every year, you’ll have to get use to all of the familiar faces in new places. You’ll also have to get use to the fact that when a player changes addresses his numbers are very often affected, whether it be for the good, the bad, or the insignificant. A change in leagues, stadium, lineup production, run support, and even altitude can and will impact the players and thus your fantasy team(s). The last 5 months have been full of transactions and in these next few posts I will help you sort out what the fantasy impacts of those moves will be. Note that all projections are over a full season’s workload.

AL EAST

Yankees: Well GM Brian Cashman certainly was not kidding when he said the Yankees were committed to building from within and developing young players instead of making huge trades or throwing huge cash at FAs. This was perhaps the quietest off-season in the history of the organization (sans the whole A-Rod opt out debacle and the “will he or won’t he play” Pettite saga) as the Yankees shockingly added only 2 new players to their Major League roster. Sadly Billy Crystal did not make the roster :

(1) RP LaTroy HawkinsHawkins is one of those guys that I kinda have always liked in real life baseball but never been crazy about in fantasy. My big problem with him is that he has been frustratingly inconsistent throughout his career. While he had a solid career in Minnesota, he struggled a bit the last time he was in the AL, which was only 2 seasons ago with Baltimore. He had an ERA of 4 and a half that year and I expect his ERA will be about the same this time around. He only threw 55 innings last season and I doubt he’ll go much higher than that total this season, especially since Joe Torre isn’t there to abuse his arm. Hawkins has never been a huge strikeout pitcher and that won’t change and he will have to compete with Farnsworth and Chamberlain for holds. If Rivera gets hurt, he is a third option at best to close and won’t get many opportunities to “vulture” saves or wins.

Projections: 3 wins, 21 holds, 4.63 ERA

Verdict: Hawkins is worth owning in AL only leagues as he will be a solid holds guy for your team and is worth owning over Farnsworth. In deep mixed leagues, not a terrible option as your 4th or 5th reliever but really only worth owning if your team is affected by injury or if the Yankees experience bullpen injuries

2) 3B/1B Morgan EnsbergIt was touch and go as to whether or not Ensberg would make the big league squad but the Yankees just purchased the former all-star’s contract. Good for Morgan but pretty useless fact for you and your fantasy team. Ensberg has zero chance of starting at any point. Even with an injury to Rodriguez or an issue at 1B, Wilson Betemit will play before Ensberg at third and Shelley Duncan may play before him at first bag. He will be lucky to get anywhere near 200 ABs and his numbers the past two seasons have been alarmingly terrible. In that span he has hit .231 and averaged only 49 RBIs. Yes, his shoulder injury impacted him but it’s time to view his 2005 season as an abnormality and not a realistic expectation of him. He has never come within 35 RBIs or 11 home runs of that 36/101 season and he certainly will not have the opportunity to try in ‘08. To top it off, he won’t even provide a cheap steal for your team every now and again.

Projection: .246/4/24

Verdict: Avoid at all costs, he won’t play and is of no value. Even if he is traded, it is unlikely he would start or be of any huge impact. Red Sox: As quiet as the Yankees off-season was, the Red Soxs’ was perhaps even quieter. When you’re the GM of the defending champions, you sometimes earn the right to take it a bit easy over the winter. Boston will make another deep run into the playoffs and they will do it with virtually the same core as last season as Epstein brought in only three new players to the big league squad.

1) SP Bartolo ColonIt was only 2005 when Colon was an all-star, 20 game winner, and a CY Young award winner for the Angels. My my time has a funny way of changing everything. Colon has not been the same since he partially tore his rotator cuff in the ‘05 post-season and opted to rehab it instead of go to Dr. Andrews (is there even another surgeon to the stars?) and one has to wonder if he’ll ever be remotely the same. Colon has a lot working against him, including the fact he’ll be 35 in May and he seems to have completely lost his velocity, which was his greatest weapon back in the day. Oh and there is the small fact that Beckett, Dice-K, Wakefield, Lester, Buchholz, and a healthy Schilling are all ahead of him on the depth chart. His only real chance to play may be to become a reliever.

Projections: 4 wins, 4.88 ERA, 52 K

Verdict: As much as I would like for Colon to rebound to his old form, it is highly unlikely to happen, especially in Boston this season. If the Red Soxs experience a slew of SP injuries, he may get some spot starts here and there but nothing substantial enough to justify owning him in any format. His value as a potential reliever will also be diminished by the bullpen depth as well. Not worth owning in any format.

2) RP David AardsmaAardsma is a good young pitcher with a high ceiling who I like a lot. Unfortunately, his value in fantasy baseball will be next to nil this season. I fully expect him to make the squad and be able to last the entire season with the big club but at the same time, he is highly inexperienced in the big show. He projects more as a long reliever/middle relief guy and his opportunity for holds will be severely low.

Projections: 1 win, 7 holds, 4.37 ERA

Verdict: Good young pitcher who may one day achieve a degree of big league success but for the 2008 fantasy season is useless. Not worth owning in any format unless Boston experiences a bunch of bullpen injuries.

3) 1B Sean CaseyCasey is one of those great, classy veterans who is a contributor to any big league club he is on. Unfortunately, he is a bench contributor who is known for his glove and those kind of guys are essentially useless in fantasy land. Casey, who I would’ve sworn was about 37 (he’s only 33) has battled injuries the past three seasons and his power has completed been zapped. Youkilis is firmly entrenched at 1B after a solid 2007 season and even if he is benched or hurt, Casey will provided nothing more than a .290 average for you.

Projections: .292/2/38

Verdict: Nice guy, great bench player, but of no value in fantasy baseball especially at a power heavy position. Only bother if you’re in an absurdly deep AL-only league

Blue Jays: Relatively speaking, the Blue Jays also had a relatively quiet off-season. Much like Boston, they were in a position where they really didn’t have to as they have built a nice core going into the future. Oddly enough, much of Toronto’s offense in 2007 had their worst seasons of their careers. Watch out for this team. Their only real move of any significance was the Rolen for Glaus trade, which made little sense for both teams.

1) 3B Scott Rolen

To me, JP Ricardi simply traded one injury prone, aging 3B who probably needs to become a DH soon for another. Rolen can still bring it with the glove, even on turf, but his offensive production has been ravaged over the last three seasons by injuries. In Rolen’s defense though, he wasn’t too badly hurt in 2006 and put up .296/22/95 season which is more than respectable. But he missed way too much time in both ‘05 and ‘07 for me to feel comfortable with projecting him anywhere near those numbers. On top of all that MLB.com is reporting he is likely to miss all of April with his broken finger. He’s only 32 but he has aged like he is 38 already.

Projections: .283/14/67/6 steals

Verdict: In very deep AL only leagues he is a great backup. Only a starter if you’re 3B goes down with an injury. You could do worse at a weak fantasy position, but note that Rolen is not one of the top 15 3B available.

2) C Rod Barajas

Barajas is a veteran catcher who is best suited as a backup at this point in his career. He showed promising power in his short stint as the Ranger’s primary catcher from 2004-06 but he also showed that he can’t hit for average to save his life. On top of all that, his defense is spotty. He is behind Gregg Zaun on the depth chart, which doesn’t mean much because at 36 Zaun will certainly experience durability issues. Fasano is gone so he doesn’t have to worry about him taking his job but he does have to worry about Curtis Thigpen, who the organization seems to really like.

Projections: .232/9/38

Verdict: Between not getting enough at bats and his terrible average, he is of no use to you unless Zaun suffers a long term injury. In that scenario, he still should only be your starter if you’re desperate.

3) 2B/3B/SS Marco Scutaro

Scutaro made a career for himself in Oakland by being that Joe McEwing/ Little Engine Who Could type of utility infielder. In large part that was thanks to the fact Mark Ellis and Bobby Crosby are absolutely incapable of staying on the field. Unfortunately for Scutaro, Aaaron Hill and David Eckstein are much more durable and his playing time will be much more sparse. Great real life utility infielder, of no value in fantasy baseball

Projections: .267/6/31/3 steals

Verdict: Don’t forget he got a lot of playing time in Oakland over the years and he showed that he is a good role player with minimal power. He won’t get remotely the same playing time in Toronto and is not useful to your fantasy team in any format.

Orioles: This is one of the strangest teams in all of baseball. Their team seems to be made up completely of aging, minimally productive veterans and unproven youngsters. They were certainly, however, active in the trade market this season as they sent their star hitter (Miguel Tejada) and their ace (Erik Bedard) packing. The Orioles brought in a plethora of youngsters for the two. Only time will tell how it works out

1) OF Adam Jones

This kid is a beast of an athlete and he absolutely slaughtered AAA pitching last season. He has absolutely nothing left to prove there and he will be given a long leash in the majors. He has solid power potential and is a solid contact hitter, although he may struggle initially being so raw. He may not pay huge dividends in ‘08 but he will be a star down the road, you’ll just have to deal with a likely high K rate, minimal walks and boughts of inconsistency this season. Projections: .274/22/76/12 stealsVerdict: Jones is going to be a star in the Baltimore OF for years to come. He may not be a fantasy stud in 2008 but he is absolutely worth a bench spot. In keeper leagues, you’d be a fool not to draft/trade for/sign him. 2) SP Troy PattonPatton was brought over in part of the Tejada trade and while he is still a valued prospect, he has fallen off quite a bit from when he was viewed as a top of the rotation guy by Houston. He struggled as he got higher in the minors last season and he battled a biceps injury. It appears manager Dave Trembley is going to give him a go as his fourth starter but his fastball has seemingly gotten flatter and flatter over the past year.

Projections: 7 wins/4.51/122 K

Verdict: Patton is definitely a prospect to watch. His value in 2008 doesn’t expect to be much as I would not be shocked if he lost his starting spot at least once due to either injury or productivity. May be draftable in 2009, but for 2008 he is your last starter at best…at best.

3) P Matt Albers

Albers was another young pitcher brought over in the Tejada trade. He is currently battling Brian Burres for the 5th starter spot and I expect he will lose out on it. At that point, I think he will start the season as a reliever and not in Triple A. Both he and Burres are guys who will get rocked but Burress has a much better K rate. Albers got 18 starts in the majors and 13 relief appearances last season and dropped 11 of those decisions, working his way to an ERA of near 6. Perhaps once he gains more control that ERA will dip a bit, but don’t hold your breath

Projections: 5 wins/5.54/113 K

Verdict: He is still only 25 but his control leaves something to be desired. He is also a pitcher who forces a lot of contact, not a good scenario with a spotty defense and a hitter’s park behind him. He gave up a lot of dingers last season in a short sampling and his value as a starter or reliever is next to nil for you, unless you like to get watch your ERA and WHIP increase

4) OF Luke Scott

Scott joins Jones and Nick Markakis to form not only a ridiculously young outfield, but also an absurdely young one. The Orioles have a legit shot to have a star studded OF for years to come and while many consider Scott the least talented of the three, I am not as fast to agree. Many feel Scott struggled in his first season as a full-time player in Houston but he hit .255 with 18 homers in a terrible lineup. While this lineup may not be much better and Camden Yards not as much as a hitter’s park as Minute Maid, Scott will put up solid numbers this season as a part of that electrifying OF. He may not start right away as both Payton and Redman will compete for playing time with him but I expect he will be fully entrenched at LF by mid season. His power is legit and his minor league track record suggests his long term batting average is more in the .285 range than .250.

Projections: .268/21/72/7 steals

Verdict: The big thing going against Scott is playing time, but as I said, I feel like he will get enough of it to approach 400 ABs. He will one day hit 30-35 home runs and he may prove to be a huge sleeper. Intriguing in ‘09 for those of you who play in keeper leagues. Definitely invest in AL only, strongly consider in mixed formats.

5) RP Dennis Sarfate

Sarfate is yet again one of the prospects brought in by the Tejada trade (Houston really went with a “must win right the hell now!” approach huh?) and his upside is absolutely tremendous, yet he flies under the radar. He has a huge, powerful fastball and has clinched his bullpen spot already. In all likelihood, he will become the closer if George Sherrill faulters. He has only thrown 16.2 major league innings but he has struck out 25 batters and only walked 5 in that short sampling. Sarfate potentially has electric stuff and should be a staple in the Oriole pen. He reminds me of Joel Zumaya. The only real negative with him is that he is already 26 and his minor league numbers are a bit questionable but he is no longer attempting to be a starter and even as a minor league starter his ERA was always tucked under 4. He seems to have found his niche as a reliever.

Projections: 3 wins/2.47/17 holds/11 saves/107 K

Verdict: While I kinda like Sherrill, I like him more as a middle reliever/set-up man than a closer and I am confident Sarfate will pitch his way into the role. If not this season, then perhaps in 2009. I predict he will be a ROY candidate by season’s end and a top 10 drafted closer going into ‘09. If you’re in a league that counts holds, definitely go after Sarfate as he will accumulate as many as he can on a bad team and he will K a ton.

6) RP Greg Aquino

The Orioles bullpen was terrible last season and they definitely attempted to address it this season. Unfortunately, Aquino is not of much help. I expect he’ll spend the majority of the season in Triple A to deal with command issues. Even if he is on the roster, there are about four guys ahead of him for both holds and saves. If he does get to pitch a decent amount, however, he will have a good K rate.

Projections: 3 holds/4.74/33 K

Verdict: Too many guys are ahead of him in Baltimore’s pen and he has been unable to stick in the majors because of command issues. Won’t contribute to your team at all. Avoid him completely.

7) RP George Sherrill

A lot of people have hoped on the Sherrill sleeper closer bandwagon but I am not really one of those guys. He had a stunning K rate, WHIP, and ERA last season when he set up J.J. Putz in Seattle and he has earned the hype. However, he has only saved four games in his career and I feel he is much better suited as a lefty specialist and set-up man than closer. He is not a traditional closer by any means, and if he struggles in the role Sarfate and Jamie Walker will be the immediate candidates to replace him. Just in the same, I could see Sherrill living up to the hype and being a sleeper closer

Projections: 3 wins/3.17/23 saves/7 holds/68 K

Verdict: The ERA and WHIP will not be under 3 and 1 respectively like last season but they will suffice. Sherrill could be hit or miss in this role but either way he will get saves or holds while providing K’s and not hurting your ERA. A must to have in your pen in any format.

8) SP Steve Trachsel

Trachsel is a solid veteran and pending he stays healthy, will remain in the rotation.  He pitched solidly in his stint with Baltimore last season but was horrible in his four starts after being traded back to the Cubs.  In fantasy world, he is a bottom tier starter as his K rate is terrible and his ERA is a bit too high for a guy who doesn’t bring strikeouts.  In fact, he hasn’t struck out more than 100 batters since 2004 and that trend is not going to change.

Projections: 7 wins/4.64/57 K

Verdict: Terrible K rate, too high of an ERA for a finesse pitcher, aging and injury prone.  Trachsel is of minimal value as a last starter in deep AL only leagues and of none in any mixed league.
Rays: Tampa Bay made 2 radical changes this off-season: they changed their name from Devil Rays to Rays and traded young OF Delmon Young to Minnesotta. I hated the name change but I don’t mind the trade as they accquired a talented young pitcher who should contribute solidly in 2008. They also brought in a handful of solid veterans, an indication that they are finally taking a small step in the right direction. Tampa Bay has a deadly young staff brewing in Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Andy Sonnastine

1) SP Matt Garza

Garza is an elite pitching prospect and for as much criticism as he got last season with the Twins, I don’t think he pitched that poorly overall. His minor league numbers fully indicate that he can be a star pitcher in this league, but he must master his control and get more balls by more hitters. He has given up way too many hits in his short experience in the majors and that trend will take awhile to change. Despite all of the hits he gave up last season, his ERA was only 3.69 surprisingly.

Projections: 12 wins/4.22/152 K

Verdict: The sky is the limit for Garza but his breakout will not come in 2008. Must have in AL only, should have in mixed league. Keeper League stud by September. 2) OF Cliff FloydHe isn’t going to stay healthy and I have no idea why Tampa Bay brought him into to a RF/DH platoon with Johnny Gomes. Floyd, at only 35, has always been battling injury and it has painfully impacted his production. He had a great season in 2005 with the Mets but sadly those days are long gone and so is his body.

Projections: .276/13/46

Verdict: Floyd is beyond risky but if he can stay on the field, the playing time will be there especially since it’s doubtful Rocco Baldelli will ever be able to make it back or stay on the field. If he can stay healthy, he can give you solid power and a respectable average but you’d be playing with dynamite if you banked on it

3) SS Jason Bartlett

Bartlett is more of a traditional SS than a contemporary one. He has almost no power but he will hit for a solid average and steal you bases. In terms of fantasy, his only real value is his speed and he had a success rate of near 90% on steals last season. He could be a nice steals sleeper for your team

Projections: .276/6/51/26

Verdict: Really he is only useful in fantasy for steals. He will get all the opportunity in the world to play unless that batting average dips too much, which I expect it won’t. Backup in deep AL only.

4) RP Troy Percival

What an odd, amazing story Percival’s career has been the past three years or so. From 1996 to 2004, Percival was one of the game’s greatest closers and seemingly headed for a spot in the Hall. However, injuries quickly derailed him and this time last year it seemed he was retired. He excelled back in the bigs last season as a set-up man in St. Louis and now the only question is whether or not he can stay on the field in ‘08. I expect he gets through the season with few health issues

Projections: 3 wins/31 saves/44 K

Verdict: His arm health has to be a concern but he stayed healthy last season and he is back in the role he strived in for a decade. Tampa Bay won’t be very good but 30 saves is more than reasonable. Just remember he isn’t quite the K guy he once was and you’ll be fine. Good in all formats.See you soon with the rest of the new player projections by division (I won’t write as much I promise haha)Take Care and best of luck,Dave