Fantasy Prediction Recap: Spring Training, 2008

Here’s a recap of the four fantasy predictions I made this spring training and their actual outcomes:

Saturday, 2/23/08: The Indians trade Cliff Lee and promote either Aaron Laffey or Jeremy Sowers to the 5th spot in the rotation (leaning toward Laffey). The best guess on Lee’s possible destination: Cincinnati. The Reds currently lack a lefty starter and can easily fit him into a weak rotation.

What actually happened: The Indians, rather than trade Lee, promoted him back into the rotation as their #5 starter. Laffey, along with fellow youngsters Jeremy Sowers and Adam Miller, currently form the backbone of an imposing AAA rotation. Lee’s rotation stay could be short if any of the three get hot and teams start seeking lefty starters.

Wednesday, 2/27/08: After hitting .335 in 173 at-bats last season, Cody Ross carries his hot streak over to spring training and wins the starting centerfield job over superprospect Cameron Maybin and last year’s spring training victor, Alejandro de Aza.

What actually happened: Ross did win the centerfield job, but according to reports, he’ll likely have to share time with utility hitter Alfredo Amezaga. Maybin will open the year in AAA and de Aza was placed on the 15-day DL. It’s Ross’s job to lose at this point, even if he loses some at-bats to Amegaza and possibly Luis Gonzalez, once Jeremy Hermida comes off the DL.

Saturday, 3/15/08: Despite a crowded outfield, newly re-acquired Met, hot-hitting Angel Pagan, makes the team and replaces Moises Alou as the starter in left field until Alou returns from injury. As a result, Endy Chavez opens the season as the fourth outfielder, Damion Easley and Marlon Anderson as pinch-hitters, and superprospect Fernando Martinez in AAA.

What actually happened: Pagan kept his hot streak going through the spring, and as I expected, it was enough to win him the starting left field job while Alou rehabs on the DL. Chavez, Easley, and Anderson could all still see time in left, but the majority of their at-bats will be off the bench. Martinez was optioned back to AA Binghamton.

Wednesday, 3/19/08: Despite Joe Crede’s back issues and disappointing 2007 season, he wins the Opening Day starting third base job with a healthy, solid spring training. As a result, Josh Fields is optioned to AAA so he can play everyday rather than waste away on the major-league bench. Pablo Ozuna, who will also lose his position battle (at second base) will be kept on board as a utility player and Crede’s primary back-up at 3B. The trade rumors swirling around Crede will persist and pick up steam if he gets off to hot start this year.

What actually happened: Crede won the third base job, Fields will open the year as the starting 3B in AAA, and as expected, Ozuna will be relied on as the primary back-up to Crede after losing the 2B competition to Juan Uribe.

Prediction Success: 75%

I was pretty much on the money on the Pagan and Crede predictions. Technically, I was right on Cody Ross winning the CF job, despite a potential platoon lurking in the future once Hermida comes off the DL. But I flat out missed on the assumption that Cliff Lee would be dealt and replaced by Aaron Laffey in the rotation – though I rule out the possibility of this eventually happening at some point this season.

Boom or Bust: NL Edition

We continue with the second half of this year’s top half-dozen boom or bust fantasy options – the guys who are as likely to explode as they are implode. When perusing through the list, keep in mind one thing – the exclusivity of each player’s circumstances. Each one of these players has a high ceiling and a low basement, but each one also has a very unique story. We already saw the top-ranked minor-league position player of the early part of this decade go from potential roster casualty to a 2nd round fantasy pick. We also saw a pitcher who was the surefire rookie of the year in 2006 before an arm injury cost him the award and all of last season and we also saw a former #1 overall pick return to baseball after missing three full seasons due to drug abuse and off-the-field problems.

The stories are equally as interesting in the National League as we’ll take a look at a 26-year old pitcher who broke out in 2004 and was considered one of the best young lefties in the game before imploding in back-to-back seasons and returning to dominance in 2007. We’ll also look at a former top pitching prospect who suffered an eternal meltdown, lost his control, nearly retired from baseball, and returned as a power-hitting outfielder, and finally, a 33-year old rookie.

National League East: Oliver Perez, SP, New York Mets

Boom: On talent alone, Perez could be an ace. He’s crafty, has a great mix of pitches, has very good lefty/righty splits, can be virtually unhittable when he’s on his game, and has the ability to strikeout 200+ hitters on a yearly basis. Since leaving the moribund Pirates, he has worked closely with Mets’ pitching coach Rick Peterson and rediscovered the mechanics and success that made him one of the game’s most promising young pitchers in 2004, when he went 12-10 with a 2.98 ERA and striking out 239 batters. Last season, after a three-year hiatus, he returned to fantasy stud status, going 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA and striking out 174 in 177.0 IP. He should continue to thrive in a pitcher’s park, under Peterson’s tutelage, with the same great offense behind him, and minimal pressure as the #3 starter. Perez struggled a bit down the stretch last year (as the entire team collapsed), but despite whispers of him being a headcase, he was generally solid all year long, against righties and lefties, and at home and on the road. Assuming he continues his maturation in this friendly environment, he could be a very cheap and effective #3 fantasy starter while average more than 1 K/IP. He’s still only 26 and even when he struggles he’s a productive lefty, always averaging around one strikeout per inning.

Bust: 2007 was Perez’s best season since 2002. Perez followed up his 2002 campaign by going 7-5 with a 5.85 ERA in 2003, despite being under the same circumstances. He’s shown goog consistency within a given year, but usually he’s consistently getting rocked. In three of the last five seasons, his ERA has been above 5.50 and he’s allowed at least 20 HRs in every full season as a starter. He’s been unable to keep his mechanics under control for extended periods of time and his delivery raises some concerns. He has the propensity to implode at any time and he still struggles with his control. His ERA rose nearly a full run in the second half of the season and his BAA jumped from .207 to .254 after his luck on balls put in play gradually declined. He has electric stuff and ace potential, but he’s still a very risky proposition and can’t be trusted as a top-of-the-line fantasy starter. Considering he’s never put together back-to-back above-average fantasy seasons, he may have more upside than Ervin Santana, but he’s equally as combustible.

Verdict: Despite the criticism the Pirates organization has faced over the last decade, they’ve always seemed to manage their young pitchers well, so it’s hard to blame them for Perez’s implosion. The fact is, Perez is ubertalented, but his talent and potential stardom in the past clearly outweighed his lack of experience. He’s made very good strides as a Met and is learning to harness his talented arm and velocity. He could just as easily improve upon last year’s peripherals and become a top-of-the-line fantasy starter as easily as he could implode again, and for that reason, despite the fact that I think he’s more likely to do the former, I wouldn’t risk drafting him any higher than as a #4 fantasy starter.

Boom or Bust: AL Edition

This year I have often talked about “risky” players, guys like Barry Bonds, Evan Longoria, and Kerry Wood, but while they are risky, the risk involved isn’t one likely to seriously jeopardize your team. The players this article will focus on, one from each division, are the risky players who have the market value to actually damage your team if they aren’t worth the risk. These players can as easily be labeled “sleepers” as they could “disappointments.” They’re the ultimate boom-or-bust picks – the type of players who will tend to get drafted higher on potential than actual production, or the type of guys to fall a bit further than a player with similar production the year before would, because of a lack of track record or more red flags. They have the high-ceiling talent that can make you look like a genius for drafting or acquiring them and they have the low basement that can ruin your team if the risks outweigh the rewards.

So, if you feel you’ve put together a solid team this year, but feel you’re still lacking that one piece to put you over the edge, you might want to take a gamble on one of these six high-risk, high-reward players, who could end up paying huge dividends. First, the American League “boom-or-bust” picks for 2008:

American League East: B.J. Upton, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Boom: Upton was the #2 overall pick in the 2002 draft and was considered the top-hitting prospect for much of the early part of his career. He plowed through lower levels of the minors exuding 20-20 potential, despite still being underaged and very raw. He hit a snag in AAA and struggled early on the majors, but it was because he was still so raw. Last season, as he began to refine his skills, he made an instant impact, hitting .300 with 24 HRs, 82 RBIs, and stealing 22 bases. He’ll move to centerfield, where he’ll no longer have to wory about his defense jeopardizing playing time or focus on offense, and he’ll be in the heart of a very productive lineup. He has 30 HR potential, but his speed may be his best asset (as seen by perennial 40+ SB totals in the minors). He’s still only 23 years old and his five-tool talents could have him on the precipice of a monster season, with his potential.

Bust: Upton has plenty of potential, as despite refining his skills last year, he’s still very raw. He’ll be forced to learn a new position in centerfield this year and it could take away from his focus at the plate. He has an awful batting eye and was lucky to hit .300 last year, despite 154 strikeouts to only 65 walks. His batting dropped 35 points from the first half (.320) to the second half (.285) last year, and he hit  .270 and .244 in August and September, respectively.  He’s the type of hitter who can give you power and speed, but his average will eventually regress. He’s shown the ability to struggle long-term against quality pitching and if he doesn’t improve his batting eye, he might just wind up being a flashier version of Mike Cameron this year.

Verdict: Upton is the real deal. Is he a .300 hitter? Probably not, but he should be able to maintain an average in the .270-.280 range. He’s very risky, especially considering he’s gone in the second round of some drafts, but if you can land him at 2B, you should be pretty set. He might not reach 30 HRs this year, but another 20-20 season should be in store for fantasy owners.