This year I have often talked about “risky” players, guys like Barry Bonds, Evan Longoria, and Kerry Wood, but while they are risky, the risk involved isn’t one likely to seriously jeopardize your team. The players this article will focus on, one from each division, are the risky players who have the market value to actually damage your team if they aren’t worth the risk. These players can as easily be labeled “sleepers” as they could “disappointments.” They’re the ultimate boom-or-bust picks – the type of players who will tend to get drafted higher on potential than actual production, or the type of guys to fall a bit further than a player with similar production the year before would, because of a lack of track record or more red flags. They have the high-ceiling talent that can make you look like a genius for drafting or acquiring them and they have the low basement that can ruin your team if the risks outweigh the rewards.
So, if you feel you’ve put together a solid team this year, but feel you’re still lacking that one piece to put you over the edge, you might want to take a gamble on one of these six high-risk, high-reward players, who could end up paying huge dividends. First, the American League “boom-or-bust” picks for 2008:
American League East: B.J. Upton, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Boom: Upton was the #2 overall pick in the 2002 draft and was considered the top-hitting prospect for much of the early part of his career. He plowed through lower levels of the minors exuding 20-20 potential, despite still being underaged and very raw. He hit a snag in AAA and struggled early on the majors, but it was because he was still so raw. Last season, as he began to refine his skills, he made an instant impact, hitting .300 with 24 HRs, 82 RBIs, and stealing 22 bases. He’ll move to centerfield, where he’ll no longer have to wory about his defense jeopardizing playing time or focus on offense, and he’ll be in the heart of a very productive lineup. He has 30 HR potential, but his speed may be his best asset (as seen by perennial 40+ SB totals in the minors). He’s still only 23 years old and his five-tool talents could have him on the precipice of a monster season, with his potential.
Bust: Upton has plenty of potential, as despite refining his skills last year, he’s still very raw. He’ll be forced to learn a new position in centerfield this year and it could take away from his focus at the plate. He has an awful batting eye and was lucky to hit .300 last year, despite 154 strikeouts to only 65 walks. His batting dropped 35 points from the first half (.320) to the second half (.285) last year, and he hit .270 and .244 in August and September, respectively. He’s the type of hitter who can give you power and speed, but his average will eventually regress. He’s shown the ability to struggle long-term against quality pitching and if he doesn’t improve his batting eye, he might just wind up being a flashier version of Mike Cameron this year.
Verdict: Upton is the real deal. Is he a .300 hitter? Probably not, but he should be able to maintain an average in the .270-.280 range. He’s very risky, especially considering he’s gone in the second round of some drafts, but if you can land him at 2B, you should be pretty set. He might not reach 30 HRs this year, but another 20-20 season should be in store for fantasy owners.
American League Central: Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins
Boom: As shown when healthy, Liriano has the talent to be the second-most productive lefty starter in baseball behind Johan Santana. Once he got out of the Giants’ organization, he blossomed under the tutelage of a knowledgeable Twins’ minor league staff and has put together an impressive track record between high-minors and the majors. In 2006, he went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA and struck out 144 in 121.0 IP. He would’ve been the hands-down Rookie of the Year, if it weren’t for an injury that cut his season short and kept him out for all of last season. He’s back at full-strength this year, but the Twins want him to make a few minor-league rehab starts at Fort Myers (A-ball) before calling him back up. Opening the year in the minors will scare away a good amount of owners, so you can benefit by buying low, because if he’s healthy and back in the majors by May (as expected), he’ll pick up where he left off in 2006, baffling hitters with electric stuff, winning double-digit games, and posting a strikeout rate well above 1 K/IP. Considering how carefully he was monitored and not rushed back, despite the elbow injury, there appears to be a very low chance of re-occurrence.
Bust: Prior to breaking out in AAA Rochester for the Twins in 2005, Liriano had a career record of 20-26 with a lifetime 3.80 ERA in the minors and perennially battled arm injuries. He put together two great seasons in 2005 and 2006, but it’s hard to expect him to just “pick up where he left off” this year after not pitching in a major league game in over a year-and-a-half and undergoing Tommy John surgery. He’s starting in the minors because his velocity and arm strength aren’t where they’re supposed to be yet and as we’ve seen with Tommy John survivors, he may not fully recover for months, if ever at all. With more of a track record, maybe he’d be worth the risk, but he was a gamble to duplicate his 2006 success even before the injury. Now, after being out of action for two full years and unable to start the year in the majors, he’s riskier than ever.
Verdict: Despite arm injury concerns and a slow minor-league start, I would still happily invest in Liriano as a frontline fantasy starter in 2008. Maybe he’ll get off to a slow start, but he’s expected to work his way through the minors fairly quickly, and he should be up by May. He’s a nice guy to target since he’ll probably have “N/A” next to his name, which will inevitably lower his value and he could be a second-half stud this year. Don’t expect him to duplicate 2006 peripherals, but expect him to easily assume the role of ace for the Twins once he’s back.
American League West: Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers
Boom: Josh Hamilton has one of the most exclusive skill sets in baseball. He’s got excellent size at 6′4” 220-lb., tremendous power, a good glove, and good enough speed to lead off. Hamilton has always had the talent, he just never had the focus. Now, that he’s focused and assured of a starting job, he’s ready to amount to the potential he had as the #1 overall pick in 1999. He may have lost some seasons due to off-the-field problems, but he was able to pick up right where he left off and is ready to blossom as a 26-year old power stud in his peak. Even last year as a part-time platoon player, he hit .292-19-47, posted a solid 65-33 strikeout-to-walk rate, showed good poise on the basepaths, played everywhere he was asked to in the outfield, and could hit anywhere in the lineup. Now, he’ll get to be a full-time starter in CF for the Rangers, entrenched in a powerful lineup in a hitter’s division in a hitter’s ballpark – an all-around more conducive atmosphere for an up-and-coming hitter like himself. He’s still making adjustments, but showed that when he heats up, no one can slow down his monster power. He had a red-hot spring and he should have no problems carrying over his torrid pace into the regular season.
Bust: It appears as if Hamilton has finally put it all together from a mental standpoint, but do you really feel comfortable investing a starting role on a guy who missed practically four full seasons of baseball? Even if he’s no longer an off-the-field risk, he still has numerous things to work out on the field. For starters, he can’t hit lefties and is a risk to end up back in a platoon because of it. He was shielded from lefties for the most part by the Reds last year, but when he faced them, he was exposed – hitting .222 with 1 HR in 72 at-bats. He also went down with injury last year and only appeared in 26 games after the All-star break. He’s also unlikely to continue to hit .292 with his skill set, 2/1 K/BB rate, emphasis on power, having to play against lefties, and having to adjust to a whole new set of pitchers. The power is there and so is the potential to be a fantasy starter, but there’s still so many red flags. He’s a feel-good story, but that won’t earn you any points in fantasy leagues. Also, despite his ability to lead off, he only stole 3 bases last season and it would be shocking if he stole more than 10 this season. He could wind up being a pure power hitter who doesn’t offer much else, and in my book, an Adam Dunn-lite hitter isn’t worth starting.
Verdict: I’m not as sold on Hamilton as I am Upton and Liriano, but I’m not about to doubt his abilities. I personally would only draft him as a fourth fantasy outfielder to open the season. His lefty/righty splits definitely raise concerns about a potential platoon, especially considering he’s never been a full-time starter and Marlon Byrd, a right-handed bat, who hit .307-10-70 and .327 against lefties last year, will be on the bench pushing for playing time. Hamilton could be an instant 30-HR guy, but questions about his average dipping, the fact that he only scored 52 runs for the Reds last year, and a low RBI to HR rate, and he could end up being a one-dimensional power hitter in fantasy baseball this year. My guess is he extrapolates on his power numbers last year but the average dips into the .260-.280 range.
