We continue with the second half of this year’s top half-dozen boom or bust fantasy options – the guys who are as likely to explode as they are implode. When perusing through the list, keep in mind one thing – the exclusivity of each player’s circumstances. Each one of these players has a high ceiling and a low basement, but each one also has a very unique story. We already saw the top-ranked minor-league position player of the early part of this decade go from potential roster casualty to a 2nd round fantasy pick. We also saw a pitcher who was the surefire rookie of the year in 2006 before an arm injury cost him the award and all of last season and we also saw a former #1 overall pick return to baseball after missing three full seasons due to drug abuse and off-the-field problems.
The stories are equally as interesting in the National League as we’ll take a look at a 26-year old pitcher who broke out in 2004 and was considered one of the best young lefties in the game before imploding in back-to-back seasons and returning to dominance in 2007. We’ll also look at a former top pitching prospect who suffered an eternal meltdown, lost his control, nearly retired from baseball, and returned as a power-hitting outfielder, and finally, a 33-year old rookie.
National League East: Oliver Perez, SP, New York Mets
Boom: On talent alone, Perez could be an ace. He’s crafty, has a great mix of pitches, has very good lefty/righty splits, can be virtually unhittable when he’s on his game, and has the ability to strikeout 200+ hitters on a yearly basis. Since leaving the moribund Pirates, he has worked closely with Mets’ pitching coach Rick Peterson and rediscovered the mechanics and success that made him one of the game’s most promising young pitchers in 2004, when he went 12-10 with a 2.98 ERA and striking out 239 batters. Last season, after a three-year hiatus, he returned to fantasy stud status, going 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA and striking out 174 in 177.0 IP. He should continue to thrive in a pitcher’s park, under Peterson’s tutelage, with the same great offense behind him, and minimal pressure as the #3 starter. Perez struggled a bit down the stretch last year (as the entire team collapsed), but despite whispers of him being a headcase, he was generally solid all year long, against righties and lefties, and at home and on the road. Assuming he continues his maturation in this friendly environment, he could be a very cheap and effective #3 fantasy starter while average more than 1 K/IP. He’s still only 26 and even when he struggles he’s a productive lefty, always averaging around one strikeout per inning.
Bust: 2007 was Perez’s best season since 2002. Perez followed up his 2002 campaign by going 7-5 with a 5.85 ERA in 2003, despite being under the same circumstances. He’s shown goog consistency within a given year, but usually he’s consistently getting rocked. In three of the last five seasons, his ERA has been above 5.50 and he’s allowed at least 20 HRs in every full season as a starter. He’s been unable to keep his mechanics under control for extended periods of time and his delivery raises some concerns. He has the propensity to implode at any time and he still struggles with his control. His ERA rose nearly a full run in the second half of the season and his BAA jumped from .207 to .254 after his luck on balls put in play gradually declined. He has electric stuff and ace potential, but he’s still a very risky proposition and can’t be trusted as a top-of-the-line fantasy starter. Considering he’s never put together back-to-back above-average fantasy seasons, he may have more upside than Ervin Santana, but he’s equally as combustible.
Verdict: Despite the criticism the Pirates organization has faced over the last decade, they’ve always seemed to manage their young pitchers well, so it’s hard to blame them for Perez’s implosion. The fact is, Perez is ubertalented, but his talent and potential stardom in the past clearly outweighed his lack of experience. He’s made very good strides as a Met and is learning to harness his talented arm and velocity. He could just as easily improve upon last year’s peripherals and become a top-of-the-line fantasy starter as easily as he could implode again, and for that reason, despite the fact that I think he’s more likely to do the former, I wouldn’t risk drafting him any higher than as a #4 fantasy starter.
National League Central: Rick Ankiel, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Boom: Like Josh Hamilton (referenced in the AL edition of Boom or Bust), Ankiel is a former top prospect, who had been through a lot on and off the field, before getting a good chunk of major league at-bats last season and emerging as one of the game’s top up-and-coming power hitters. Ankiel, simply put, is a talented athlete and ballplayer. He was an electrifying pitching prospect in his early years as a Cardinal before he lost his control, but revived his career in the outfield. He’s got plenty of tools, great resilience, the trust of the organization, and unmitigated home run power. He showed his tremendous upside upon making his debut as a full-time hitter last year, hitting .358-9-29 in his first 22 games in 2007. He cooled off a bit, but he still finished with a more than respectable .285-11-39 line in one-fourth of a season as a rookie hitter. He hit 32 home runs in AAA Memphis before the call-up last year and averaged a HR every 13.5 at-bats in the minors. He’s secured a spot in the starting lineup for the Cardinals this year and should get some much-needed protection from Albert Pujols. He’s an instant 30-HR threat and could display solid a solid AVG/OBP/SLG line to boot.
Bust: Ankiel has never been a dominant hitter in all facets of the game outside of his white-hot 22 game stint in the majors last year. Even before the call-up, he hit 32 HRs in AAA, but only hit .267, only scored 62 runs, and had a miserable 90 strikeouts to 25 walks in 102 games. Once big league pitchers caught up to him after his torrid start, he hit .220-2-10 in his final 25 games on the season. He has shown no ability to steal bases or score a respectable amount of runs and looked awful on the road, hitting .244-2-6 in 22 games. He was also equally unimpressive against righties, hitting .246-7-23 in 126 at-bats. Despite his power, he’s always been a poor doubles hitter (only 15 to his 32 HRs at AAA last year), and despite displaying annual double-digit HR power, he’s only topped 11 HRs at any stop once in his career. He hasn’t had many opportunities as a full-time hitter, but he also doesn’t have any kind of track record outside of an impressive 2007. He’s a lifetime .265 hitter in the minors and with the holes in his swing, his struggles against righties, his swing-for-the-fences mentality, and his inexperience as a hitter, that’s probably what he’ll hit around this year. He could give you an impressive HR total, but even RBIs could be questionable with his skills and in that lineup. He could be even more one-dimensional than the aforementioned Josh Hamilton, if he doesn’t rebound from a slow finish to 2007. Don’t forget he was implicated in the steroid scandal last season, too.
Verdict: Due to Ankiel’s elusive background, he’s a very hard hitter to project. The best bet is, though, he’s going to crush homers on occasion, ride a few hot streaks, and finish with all-around pedestrian production outside of the power department. Considering that he really came crashing down to earth during his second time around the National League and the fact that the closest he’s ever been to a dominant hitter was one power-laden season at AAA, and it makes him a pretty big risk. He doesn’t have the all-around upside of Hamilton, but might have more power and has less of a chance of losing his job. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t be willing to draft him as anything more than a bench player right now.
National League West: Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Boom: Kuroda may already be 33, but like many other pitchers from Japan, he’s aged well and is still performing at a peak level. He has a fastball in the mid-90’s, and plus-secondary pitches in a forkball, sinker, and slider. He’s a crafty pitcher with good control and good mound presence and has the make-up and experience to carry over his success to the states. He’ll get to ease his way into the majors as the 4th starter with a solid offense behind him in a pitcher’s park in a pitcher’s division. He keeps the ball down and maintains an impressive HRA rate. He threw 74 complete games in Japan and has 200+ IP endurance. He won double-digit games in six of his last seasons in Japan, including going 13-6 with a 1.85 ERA in 2006 and 12-8 with a 3.56 ERA in 2007. His strikeout total won’t be great, but it won’t be a liability either. His upside isn’t tremenouds, but he looked good this spring and should more than hold his own as a back-end starter on a highly competitive team. He appears to be the most polished, major-league ready starter from Japan since Hideo Nomo. He doesn’t have Dice-K’s upside, but he should make a smoother transition.
Bust: For every Hideo Nomo and Daisuke Matzusaka, there’s a Kei Igawa and Kazuhisa Ishii. History has shown us, that for the most part, Japanese starting pitchers’ numbers should be taken with a grain of salt and their peripherals inflated if you plan on extrapolating their numbers. Outside of a dominant 2006 season, Kuroda was a good, but not great pitcher in Japan. He underwent elbow surgery last year, which is why he stayed in Japan the extra season, despite a phenomenal 2006. He doesn’t have great upside and with 1,700 IP already on his arm at age 33, his best bet may be as a solid, unglamorous back-end fantasy starter who can utilize his surroundings with a low ERA, good win total, and pedestrian peripherals. If he was a lifetime 3.69 ERA pitcher with a mediocre strikeout rate in Japan, then even if he doesn’t drop off (which usually happens to Japanese starters), he’s still only a solid back-end fantasy filler. He’s polished, but with limited upside and the combustibility of Japanese starting pitchers, the risks outweigh the rewards.
Verdict: Kuroda won’t be the next Japanese phenom, but pitching in Dodger stadium in the back-end of the rotation and being a crafty pitcher who limits his mistakes and gets out of jams, he should instantly be a solid fantasy starter. He’s not going to wow with strikeout totals, but he could give Chien-Ming Wang-esque production with a strong lineup behind him and being in a winning environment. He might not post a huge win total, but anything short of 12-14 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA should be considered a disappointment especially with only a modest strikeout rate. The arm injury was minor and he’s been consistently productive in Japan. He won’t be great, but with a low ADP, I’d be more than willing to trust him as a #5 fantasy starter.
