The simple idea behind this particular article is to see which player’s contemporary value has fluctated the most over a short time span – it’s like a Hot/Cold variation that doesn’t just take into account improved statistics. It’s more of a sponatenous post that quickly captures those whose value has increased or decreased the most since the last post of this nature was published. Consider it more of a quick heads-up as to whom is on the rise/decline than to a well-published, thought-out article.
3 Up
1. Sammy Sosa, DH, Rangers: It’s hard to put spring training statistics into a full perspective, since this spring means a lot more to guys like Sammy than some of the pitching he has faced, but you can’t ignore a .917 slugging clip regardless of the variables. Nelson Cruz has been penciled in as the RF starter and Sosa still looks shaky in all non-power-hitting facets of the game, so it looks as if he’ll get the nod at DH, but he could still split time with Frank Catalanotto.
We all know Sosa can still hit 30-35 HRs if healthy, especially in Arlington, and he should score runs in a loaded lineup, but the big question is if he can maintain a .250 AVG or better over the course of extended playing time. Sosa’s value has skyrocketed with his successful return thus far, but even still, it will be difficult to have value in mixed leagues after missing the entire 2006 season (combined with an atrocious 2005 campaign) and possibily offering no position eligibility. Knowing how good of a hitter Sosa was in the 90’s makes it all the more tempting, and though the risks are still quite obvious, at least we are seeing hope for some good power-number rewards.
2. Russ Ortiz, SP, Giants: Ortiz was on a steady decline since leaving the Bay Area in 2002, but he hit well below rock bottom last year and it’s going to take a hell of a lot more than a solid spring training to regain any fantasy value whatsoever. Nevertheless, Ortiz, who entered camp after losing about 15 pounds this offseason, seems to be the favorite for the 5th spot in the Giants rotation and gets to return to a heavily pitching-favored divison in one of the best pitchers’ parks in baseball. He also gets to return to a team for which he has a career record 67-44 record and a pitching coach in Dave Righetti, for whom he performed best under. Ortiz pitched 2 1/3 of no-hit ball against the D’Backs and while he still has a lot of progress to make to re-establish himself, he’s still young enough (32) for a career revival and now gets to return to the most favorable conditions for that revival. It’ll be a long road, but Ortiz looks much improved and could be ready for the journey back to a mid-level fantasy starter.
3. Matt Lindstrom, RP, Marlins: Lindstrom got a late jump on his career due to his religious commitments as a Mormon, but after getting shipped from the Mets to the Marlins this offseason, he has become one of the more intriguing players vying for a job this spring. Lindstrom is already 27 years old, but has shown a good closer make-up and mentality, has done well throughout the minors, and most importantly, has a fastball that reaches triple-digits on the radar gun. With Taylor Tankersley still sidelined due to shoulder problems, Lindstrom appears to be the favorite to inherit the job, until Tankersley is ready to return. Lindstrom still has to stave off some competition and needs to develop a repetoire behind his heater, but has the highest ceiling of all current healthy closer candidate for the Marlins. His value is still very low, but as a trial-and-error third closer on your fantasy team, he’s worth the risk, we’ve seen closers thrive in Florida the past couple of seasons and Lindstrom could be the next in line.
3 Down
1. Mike Hampton, SP, Braves: Hampton’s value was strictly limited to a late-round deep sleeper to begin with, but with the latest setback to his left side, it appears he’ll miss all of April and eradicate any possible value at this time. Hampton isn’t a lock to return to the rotation, if and when he is back at 100%, and with a strikeout rate well below league average and at age 34, it’s hard to project much value upon returning. There are still questions about his reconstructed elbow, and now we can add this most recent history to a growing set of red flags for Hampton; combine that with 12 starts in the last two seasons and it’s easy to why Hampton’s already extremely-low value just got a little lower.
2. Mark Kotsay, CF, A’s: After Kotsay’s AVG and runs scored dipped for the third straight season in 2006 and he finished with a meager line of 7-59-.275, he was bordering on 5th OF/waiver-wire status in most fantasy leagues. Now, undergoing back surgery that will put him on the shelf for 8-12 weeks, Kotsay has plummeted straight down the value charts and isn’t even worth a DL spot at this time. Milton Bradley will be expected to take over, and if he keeps his head on straight, the A’s should see no reason to rush Kotsay back. Kotsay’s Games Played total has also dropped three straight years, and expected to continue that trend, Kotsay is merely worth keeping on the waiver-wire radar in June/July at this point.
3. Orlando Hernandez, SP, Mets: We all know the Mets are masquerading El Duque around as a #2 starter when he clearly isn’t, but after giving up 5 runs and 6 hits in two innings against the Orioles yesterday, you have to question whether or not he’s the biggest liability in a very weak rotation. No one truly knows how old he is, but at an alleged age of 37 and suffering countless, though often minor, ailments over the past couple of seasons, his durability is in question. On the plus side, he’s still capable of posting a strikeout rate over 1 K/IP and he’ll get cheap wins with arguably the NL’s best lineup behind him and getting to face the Nationals a handful of times., but will it matter if he posts another ERA in the range of 5.00? He rebounded with the Mets during the regular season last year, but has struggled to regain full health and effectiveness, and while it is only spring training, he’s one of the last guys you want to see get knocked around early on. Right now, he’s a #5 fantasy starter at best, but with his value dropping, most leagues will have him on the waiver wire come Opening Day.
Posted by James 