Baseball Prospectus Review, Part II

Continuing on Baseball Prospectus Review, Part I (3/5/07), in Part II, I will select one player from each of the remaining teams, (Milwaukee to Washington) alphabetically speaking. Again, at the conclusion of the player portfolios, will be the lines I came across and found most humorous. Without further adieu:

Milwaukee Brewers
Ben Sheets, SP
2007 PECOTA Projection: 12-8, 177 IP, 171 K, 3.35 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
Notable Comparable: Juan Marichal
BP Comments: He’s always had great control before, but last year’s equivalent walk rate of 0.8 per nine innings is approaching the reliability you get with a pitching machine. Neat year – if healthy – he could easily be one of the best starters in the league.
My Comments: BP and PECOTA don’t disguise their love for Sheets, thanks mostly in part to an impeccable K/BB rate, and while they take caution of injury, they expect him to stay healthy all season. When healthy, Sheets is clearly one of the most talented in the league and to able to post nearly 1 K/IP or better with such a low walk rate solidifies his greatness, but he may need a little more to break his way in 2007 (besides his health) before he’s considered an elite pitcher as BP suggests.

Minnesota Twins
Justin Morneau, 1B
2007 PECOTA Projection: 88 R, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 2 SB, .292 AVG
Notable Comparable: Kent Hrbek
BP Comments: One disturbing thing: his PECOTA comps have a scary number of big, Stiffy Stifferson first basemen who stopped hitting in their early thirties. The good news is that Morneau…has a good chance of putting up the kind of numbers over the next five years that will keep him in the picture for a more legitimate MVP award.
My Comments: People forget Morneau was once rated higher than Joe Mauer as a prospect after struggling for two straight seasons, but he put up the numbers many expected of him in 2006. He’s a power hitter who can also hit for average. He’s one of the better all-around hitters in the majors when he’s on his game, which makes a 30 point dip in batting average, as PECOTA suggests, seemingly unlikely. He may not put up the same type of production in 2007 after a red-hot second half, but he could easily beat his PECOTA projection without having to exceed his potential.

New York Mets
Lastings Milledge, RF
2007 PECOTA Projection: 82 R, 16 HR, 62 RBI, 17 SB, .284 AVG
Notable Comparable: Adrian Beltre
BP Comments: Statistical comparisons to Jack Clark or Adrian Beltre aside, a more instructive comparison might be to Rondell White or Brian Jordan…the disconnect between Milledge’s self-regard and actual abilities is the reason the Mets haven’t wholly committed to him.
My Comments: It’s hard to consider PECOTA a pessimistic projection tool when they post such a favorable line for a very raw prospect who hasn’t shown a significant power stroke in his professional career yet and was overmatched in his ML debut last season. He still has great potential and all the tools needed to thrive, but he’s got to earn the respect of his current clubhouse and is currently mired on the outfield depth chart. Barring a trade, he won’t match the playing time PECOTA suggests, let alone the peripherals expected.

New York Yankees
Mariano Rivera, RP
2007 PECOTA Projection: 4-4, 27 SV, 59 IP, 48 K, 2.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Notable Comparable: Larry Andersen
BP Comments: When you add his continued excellence in the face of increasing fragility that afflicts most pitchers in their mid-30s, Rivera’s consistency becomes almost unprecedented – the notable exception being Hoyt Wilhelm, who like Rivera had one special pitch and used it to effect.
My Comments: Rivera has been hindered by injuries that have limited his pitch counts and innings totals, but he’s still topped 70 innings in each of the last four seasons, which PECOTA sees coming to an end. In addition to a significantly inferior comparable, it also predicts a near one run jump in ERA, resulting in his first 2.00+ ERA season since 2002. Rivera still has low mileage on him despite his age, has remained as effective as any reliever in baseball, and entering a contract year on a team favored to lead the majors in wins, and barring a catastrophe, Rivera will top his projected total of 27 saves, even if he misses time due to injury.

Oakland A’s
Dan Haren, SP
2007 PECOTA Proejction: 13-10, 203 IP, 152 K, 4.08 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Notable Comparable: Freddy Garcia
BP Comments: Haren has established himself as one of the more durable starters in the majors, making 34 starts in both seasons. He’s otherwise consistent, too, with 14 wins in each season and nearly identical numbers down the line. Haren has just one weakness: Home runs.
My Comments: Rich Harden may be the flashiest starter in Oakland and start the year as ace, but Haren has quietly been the team’s best pitchers in the post-Big Three era. Haren is not only durable, strong, and consistent, he’s effective, has good control, and an above-average strikeout rate. After two straight solid seasons and entering a peak age of 26, PECOTA expects similar, though slightly worse, production, which seems like a worst-case scenario, based on his abilities and near flawless health.

Philadelphia Phillies
Cole Hamels, SP
2007 PECOTA Projection: 12-8, 177.2 IP, 180 K, 3.66 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Notable Comparable: Dave Righetti
BP Comments: No young pitcher is totally in the clear, but most of Hamels’ injuries haven’t been from pitching…Missing out on minor league innings may be a developmental negative and a health positive; like Chris Capuano, Hamels matured physically with less wear and tear on his arm.
My Comments: Hamels certainly turned out to be a better prospect than Gavin Floyd, but he may not quite be at the level PECOTA suggests next season. He’s got great velocity and some nasty stuff, so the 1+ K/IP rate is expected, but he is still battling with control and his HRA totals and pitches in one of the most favorable hitter’s parks, so a sub 4.00 ERA will really require a lot of improvement. He should win double-digit games, but it will most likely be accomplished thanks to a good lineup behind him rather than extremely polished peripherals.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Freddy Sanchez, 3B
2007 PECOTA Projection: 76 R, 9 HR, 63 RBI, 5 SB, .298 AVG
Notable Comparable: Mark Grudzielanek
BP Comments: …he is 29 already, doesn’t hit the long ball, doesn’t walk, and doesn’t steal. He’s good in the field, though, and if he were the team’s shortstop we’d be that much more excited about him. Sanchez is the kind of player who can hit .300 and not be all that productive.
My Comments: Like his comparable Grudzielanek, Sanchez is a good contact hitter, but has all-around below-average offensive skills. He’s better than his PECOTA projection, but he played over his head in 2006. An slight increase in power and a decline in average, as PECOTA suggests, is very possible, especially if he sticks at third base, but he’s hit well for contact on almost level, and while there’s nothing wrong with hitting .298, a 46 point drop is hard to imagine at only age 29 with a low strikeout rate.

St. Louis Cardinals
Chris Duncan, LF
2007 PECOTA Projection: 62 R, 20 HR, 66 RBI, 2 SB, .272 AVG
Notable Comparable: Carlos Pena
BP Comments: As awkward as it might be to deal the pitching coach’s son, his trade value is probably as high as it will ever get – there is nothing in his minor league track record to suggest he’s really a .290 hitter.
My Comments: Duncan posted big power numbers while hitting consistently after emerging on the scene, despite a high strikeout rate and poor fielding, a la Shane Spencer. He’s certainly a more polished prospect than Spencer ever was, but a big fall off, especially in batting average, isn’t out of the question. PECOTA expects solid power numbers still, but less HRs in 2007, despite 100+ more ABs. With his old-player skills and low walk totals, the .272 AVG seems pretty optimistic. He should still have decent fantasy value, but possibly with more power and less average than PECOTA projects.

San Diego Padres
Jake Peavy, SP
2007 PECOTA Projection: 14-8, 206.1 IP, 212 K, 3.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
Notable Comparable: Pedro Martinez
BP Comments: Twenty-two quality starts in 32 is supposed to generate better results in terms of wins and losses, but Peavy was the second-most unlucky starter in baseball when you compare his performance to his actual win-loss record.
My Comments: When a 25 year old pitcher sees his ERA rise over a full run and only sees his hits allowed, HRs allowed, and walk rate slightly increase, there may be more at play than luck; hitters may be catching up with him. PECOTA is ready to write 2006 off as pure bad luck, but other than more wins and a significantly improved ERA, the rest of his numbers are nearly identical. There’s nothing wrong with the rest of his numbers and I wouldn’t be surprised with 200+ K, double-digit wins, and a WHIP near 1.00, but his ERA may be closer to his 4.09 of 2006 than 2.88 of 2005.

San Francisco Giants
Ray Durham, 2B
2007 PECOTA Projection: 74 R, 16 HR, 66 RBI, 7 SB, .304 AVG
Notable Comparable: Roberto Alomar
BP Comments: Durham thrived initially when put in the five-hole in 2005 and, returning to it last year, he was even better, muscling up for a career-best 26 homers…PECOTA expects him to lose some playing time to age this year, but otherwise predicts that his Indian summer will last another season.
My Comments: People forget that Durham was not too long ago considered a top 10 offensive producer at his position and a viable fantasy starter. He may never hit 20+ HRs again, and PECOTA’s power projections are more in line with his career averages. He’s no longer at a peak at age 35 and he has his last big contract in the bag, so a decline in production is almost guaranteed, but he’s still capable of starter-quality numbers in a thin pool at second base. Not surprisingly, he could even flirt with .300, as suggested.

Seattle Mariners
Felix Hernandez, SP
2007 PECOTA Projection: 13-10, 202 IP, 182 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Notable Comparable: Bert Blyleven
BP Comments: Hernandez came around, but, overall, the season was a disappointment…his strikeout and walk rates held steady, and he remained one of the top-ten groundball pitchers in the majors. [His] 91% improvement rate is incredibly high for a guy who didn’t exactly stink up the joint last year.
My Comments: Unlike Hamels, expecting King Felix’s ERA to lower a full run wouldn’t be overly surprising. He has too much talent, movement on his pitches, and all-around skills to not improve naturally. He may have been overwhelmed by facing other top-level pitchers and the amount of publicity he was receiving; he gained excessive weight and struggled with his in-game durability. He’s back at a managable weight, looks as sharp as ever, and at age 21, could improve to a scary degree this season, perhaps even better than an already favorable PECOTA projection.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Akinori Iwamura, 3B
2007 PECOTA Projection: 80 R, 17 HR, 64 RBI, 7 SB, .274 AVG
Notable Comparable: Lou Whitaker
BP Comments: Iwamura can fill in at second base and all three outfield slots, so he’s not going to be blocking any deserving prospects. The general line of thinking is that players coming from Japan have an easier time maintaining their batting average than their power, and PECOTA agrees.
My Comments: Lou Whitaker’s numbers in this era aren’t quite the same as when he did it in the 80’s, but Iwamura could still have value as a back-up infielder, especially if he can pick up some added position eligibility at 2B. His numbers seem to be in line with Tad Iguchi’s two seasons in Chicago, and would be an adequate comparison, based on similar production in Japan. He’s not big or strong enough to hit 20+ HRs, but could post all-around modest production with a slightly better average than PECOTA expects.

Texas Rangers
Ian Kinsler, 2B
2007 PECOTA Projection: 84 R, 21 HR, 79 RBI, 12 SB, .284 AVG
Notable Comparable: Wil Cordero
BP Comments: Kinsler’s season left some question marks for 2007, among them if he can hit on the road, and if his second-half slowdown (.267/.329/.399 vs. .320/.379/.553 in the first half) means the league is catching up to him or can be chalked up to rookie inconsistency.
My Comments: Kinsler was on the fast track to ROY before flashier, attention-grabbing pitchers passed him by. He still put together a very good offensive and defensive year and showed a lot of potential for 2007. He was slowed down by an injury midseason and never seemed to find his timing. In a very thin pool of second basemen, he is under the radar and PECOTA shows the possibility of breaking out, or at least living up to his 2006 averages, should he stay healthy.

Toronto Blue Jays
Gustavo Chacin, SP
2007 PECOTA Projection: 7-8, 124.1 IP, 74 K, 5.37 ERA, 1.55 WHIP
Notable Comparable: Bob Ojeda
BP Comments: Relying on a cutter that’s just average and a deceptive delivery, Chacin has little margin for error when it comes to losing anything further off his stuff. When coupled with concerns about his health and his propensity for giving up the longball, that will keep him on a short leash this year.
My Comments: PECOTA will naturally display lower-than-expected numbers for pitchers with low K and high HRA rates, but this seems excessively low. Chacin doesn’t have excellent stuff and he does rely on his defense, but he pitched through injury last season and was still close to league-average. In his first 36 starts, he was a #3 starter, and if he’s healthy again this season, at age 26, a return to his prior stature seems more imminent than a bust as PECOTA thinks. The win total of 7 is the hardest number to be convinced of, especially with a good offense behind him and 9 wins in an injury-riddled season in ‘06.

Washington Nationals
Larry Broadway, 1B
2007 PECOTA Projection: 47 R, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 3 SB, .246 AVG
Notable Comparable: Damon Minor
BP Comments: At this stage, he’s playing for injury-created gigs – which can happen, this being Nick Johnson’s team – and cameos that might translate into a solid-money offer play in Japan.
My Comments: At age 26, a 6′4”, 230 lefty masher with a .284 lifetime minor league average, who is expected to open the season as the starter at first base, should garner more attention and better projections. He doesn’t simply because he strikeouts way too often and other than power, he offers little of anything else, which is not something hard to find at first base. He has some upside, but he’ll probably be best suited for a platoon role. He can muscle out some good power numbers, but it’ll come at the expense of his average; he’ll get downgraded because of it, but the line between guys like Broadway and Nick Swisher could become blurry at times, especially if Broadway hits well outside of the cavernous RFK Stadium.

Some more good lines from the latter half of Baseball Prospectus:

-On Twins’ second base prospect, Alexi Casilla
Who wants to be the next Luis Castillo? No, it’s not the latest reality show on Fox, but if it was, here’s your favorite to win the big prize.

-On Yankees’ reliever, Jose Veras
“I feel proud that the Yankees have signed me to help set the table for Mariano Rivera,” Veras said after joining the Yankees as a minor league free agent…As it turned out, Veras would have a better chance of table-setting for Mo if he had moonlighted as a waiter at Rivera’s new restaurant.

-On former Athletics’ DH, Frank Thomas
He wound up earning more than $3 million after cashing in on most of his bonus clauses (except for the $50,000 Gold Glove bonus, which must’ve been someobody’s idea of a joke, and a pretty good one).

-On former Mariners’ starter, Gil Meche
Gil Meche leaves town with his commemorative “I Survived Being A Mariners Pitching Prospect and All I Got Was This Lousy Arm Surgery” t-shirt, which, on the back, lists a partial roster of his fallen comrades, fellows such as Ryan Anderson, Jeff Heaverlo, Matt Thornton, Ken Cloude, and Bobby Madritsch

-On Angels’ newly-signed outfielder, Gary Matthews, Jr.
You’ve got to be happy for Matthews, the patent holder of the $50 Million Catch, but that doesn’t make the Angels less crazy.

-On former Nationals’ infielder Damian Jackson
He’s sort of the other choice for your in-flight meal – if you’re asked “chicken or pasta,” and you somehow wind up with inedible tofu that tastes vaguely like peanut butter and wallpaper glue, you’ve got the Damian Jackson Special.

Baseball Prospectus Review, Part I

For those of you who aren’t familiar with Baseball Prospectus, I can’t adequately describe its function or methods in such a short space as a paragraph, and giving an introduction any more room would be deviating well beyond fantasy baseball. BP, for short, is one of the most popular annual baseball publishings, which reviews the year prior, and using their PECOTA system, attempts to pinpoint exactly what a player will do the following season. There’s more to the book than that, and obviously, like any prediction method, it is never fully accurate, but it is often an entertaining read and since they come about as close as anyone on the majority of their predictions, it is certainly relevant to fantasy baseball.

Each year BP will add something new to the mix and this year happened to be managerial reports. They provided an interesting outlook on each manager’s season, but it didn’t really off too much in overall terms of strategy, nuances, etc. Fantasy footballers realize that the coach has a huge impact on the scheme and statistics of a player, but the impact in baseball is far less, so in order to really discover some influential traits about a manager, you would have to dig further down beyond the number of pinch hitters, pinch runners, and relievers used in a given season. The managerial reports merely scratched the surface this year, but I like the approach, and I hope they continue to expand upon it in next year’s edition.

For this particular review, I selected one player from each of the first 15 teams in the book (Arizona-Los Angeles (N)) whose comparables and projection for the upcoming season I found most interesting. I’ve also included some of the best lines/quotes from the book I stumbled across, often sardonic gestures made by the authors, one of the books trademarks. Before I proceed with the player capsules, it is also worth noting that BP, while open-minded and creative will often focus too heavily on a hitter’s walk rate and a pitcher’s strikeout rate when discussing the player’s chances of success in the future. Sure, no one is going to devalue the aforementioned skills, but when a player can appear to have an ambiguous future, BP will often simply refer to these rates as the sole determining factor. With that in mind, let’s begin:

Arizona Diamondbacks
Chris B. Young, CF
2007 PECOTA Projection: 79 R, 24 HR, 72 RBI, 19 SB, .280 AVG
Notable Comparable: Don Baylor
BP Comments: Among a talented group of [Diamondback] prospects, Young is the one with the most potential to bust out and have a truly outstanding career.
My Comments: PECOTA and BP are generally on the more pessimistic side of the scale, but Young seems to have a very bright outlook, especially in the immediate future. While I think he’ll offer more speed than power, PECOTA disagrees, but not by much. Young was a solid sleeper pick to begin with, but should he put up the power numbers PECOTA suggests, he could this year’s Johnny Damon.

Atlanta Braves
Kelly Johnson, 2B
2007 PECOTA Projection: 58 R, 13 HR, 50 RBI, 7 SB, .287 AVG, .375 OBP
Notable Comparable: Mel Hall
BP Comments: …his minor league experience at short and third could make him a good candidate for the second base job this spring. Should the Braves find a spot for him, he’d provide some much-needed plate discipline…
My Comments: At the time BP went to press, Johnson’s role in 2007 was still undecided and BP was unaware that he would be named the starting 2B. Johnson has been a solid AAA hitter, but marginal as a major league hitter. Thanks to his good batting eye and ability to draw walks, PECOTA has developed a bit of a man crush on him. Johnson could have a solid season with moderate power (as predicted), but I don’t think his AVG or OBP will be quite as high. He’s a sleeper pick, but he doesn’t have much value at this point.

Baltimore Orioles
Corey Patterson, CF
2007 PECOTA Projection: 61 R, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 31 SB, .259 AVG
Notable Comparable: Deion Sanders
BP Comments: Patterson is a former favprote of scouts and statheads alike, but he turned out to be one of those players who, at age 20, was about as good as he was ever going to be.
My Comments: At age 27, this seems to ring true for the once top 10 prospect Patterson, and while he put up his best campaign of his career last season, it wasn’t much to write home about it and a repeat performance seems relatively unlikely. PECOTA expects all major fantasy numbers to slightly decline and he didn’t quite earn a favorable comparable. Patterson should still have enough value to provide some SBs off your bench, but not from your starting lineup.

Boston Red Sox
Jason Varitek, C
2007 PECOTA Projection: 59 R, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 3 SB, .272 AVG
Notable Comparable: Lance Parrish
BP Comments: Varitek never got on track in 2006. His .243/.331/.411 line through July 31 would have been his worst since 2002, but a torn meniscus gave “worst” a whole new meaning…He’ll have the winter to recuperate, but the Sox must reckon with owning a 35-year old catcher whose body is no longer under warranty.
My Comments: While the comment seems a little harsh, it attributes Varitek’s offensive struggles to his injury for the most part. PECOTA expects a return to normalcy, as do most, but there is a caution sign up for a reoccuring injury. With the number of legitimately viable offensive catchers out there, even a solid line shown above, doesn’t quite counteract the injury risk. As of right now, Varitek looks like he’ll be the best catcher on the waiver wire come opening day in most leagues.

Chicago Cubs
Derrek Lee, 1B
2007 PECOTA Projection: 74 R, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 14 SB, .288
Notable Comparable: Cliff Floyd
BP Comments: A full offseason of rest should help, but the injury has only increased the likelihood that 2005 will remain an outlier on Lee’s record. Lee should come back at his 2000-04 level, when he was a very good player, but not a great one.
My Comments: Broken wrists often can have a lasting effect on a batter’s swing, timing, and approach, and Lee seems to have suffered throughout the 2006 season. PECOTA expects a rather sharp return to Earth, but his comparables suggest he could still have a big power year left in him (Jose Canseco appeared on the list as well). Lee was always a good all-around producer, and while I’m the first to admit 2005 was way over his head, I expect him to beat out his PECOTA expectations, and still have top 10 value at first base.

Chicago White Sox
Mark Buehrle, SP
2007 PECOTA Projection: 11-11, 192 IP, 108 K, 4.74 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
Notable Comparable: Jim Kaat
BP Comments: There’s no neat capsule summary to explain what happened to Mark Buehrle in 2006. It was part fatigue, part regression to the mean, and perhaps partly a bit of premature graying for a guy who could never really afford to lose much off his fastball.
My Comments: Buehrle has been an established pitcher for quite some time, so it seems as if a projection of gradual decline from here on out it is possible, but people forget he is still only 28. He has relied on his defense to make plays and never had overwhelming stuff, but guys who continually post sub-4.00 ERAs with low K totals aren’t solely dependant on luck. Buehrle’s PECOTA projection doesn’t give us much hope for a rebound, but I think we’ll see an improvement, albeit not a drastic one.

Cincinnati Reds
Bronson Arroyo, SP
2007 PECOTA Projection: 13-11, 212 IP, 157 K, 4.31 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Notable Comparable: John Thomson
BP Comments: …his platoon splits are massive and getting worse, and lefties have pumped their slugging against him from .429 to .488 to .498 in the last three years. Legit four-pitch assortment or not, something clearly isn’t working.
My Comments: BP devoted over a paragraph to Arroyo and generally they think with a little work, he can become a solid #2 pitcher, but there is some serious concern that lefties will continue to mash off him and he’ll come back down to Earth quickly. His PECOTA projection is closer to his career averages rather than last season and there may be no pitcher out there who has more pressure to remove the fluke label than Arroyo. He’s a typical risk/reward pitcher going into fantasy drafts, and while I think Harang is the clear-cut ace here, Arroyo has done well enough throughout his career to have the potential to be a solid sidekick with #3/#4 fantasy SP value.

Cleveland Indians
Andy Marte, 3B
2007 PECOTA Projection: 54 R, 19 HR, 66 RBI, 0 SB, .247 AVG
Notable Comaparable: Tom Evans
BP Comments: There is still a lot to like here. Marte remains a very good hitter with above-average power. At the same time, those projections for future superstardom are starting to fade away.
My Comments: Marte is still only 23 and while he’s struggled in the minors as of late, whether it be from getting overmatched from higher levels of pitching, or switching farm systems three times in 45 days, he is not meeting his potential. Former traded-to-Indians top prospect, Brandon Phillip,s faced similar struggles, but has since rebounded later. Marte is a better hitter than Phillips, and certainly better than Tom Evans, his projection seems pretty accurate, since he’ll likely face some rookie struggles, and hit toward the very bottom of a loaded lineup. He has more upside than the book gives him, but he’s best kept on the waiver wire for now.

Colorado Rockies
Garrett Atkins, 3B
2007 PECOTA Projection: 102 R, 25 HR, 99 RBI, 3 SB, .314 AVG
Notable Comparable: Cal Ripken
BP Comments: Atkins was steady from start to finish in 2006, even hitting .313/.402/.531 on the road, a marked improvement from 2005. He still plays defense like a converted first baseman but….Atkins should be the Rockies third baseman for the forseeable future.
My Comments: Of all the players who had breakout seasons last year, Atkins seems to be the most likely to duplicate his success of a year ago. The Rikpen projection is still way, way over his head, but he’s got good power and if he stays in Coors, Ripken-esque numbers are not out of the question. He’s an all-around power hitter and showed the ability to hit on the road, so he’s got some good potential. Despite the numbers, he’s not ready to mix in with the upper-echelon of third basemen, but is a good, young second-tier fantasy option, with keeper potential.

Detroit Tigers
Justin Verlander, SP
2007 PECOTA Projection: 11-9, 177.2 IP, 128 SO, 4.28 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Notable Comparable: Kevin Millwood
BP Comments: His 17-9 record and 3.63 ERA probably overstate his ability to some extent, but he’s adept at pitching to the situation, with his strikeout rate going way up with runners in scoring position.
My Comments: PECOTA and I tend to agree on a noticable regression this season, but for different reasons. Naturally, because of a low strikeout rate, despite his youth, past success, and pure talent, PECOTA expects a regression. I expect it because he was clearly overworked by season’s end and the postseason may have did him in. I think he’ll rebound by 2008 and have a better career than his comparable, Kevin Millwood, but I think he might be best avoided in 2007, since he’ll have a tired arm and likely already be overvalued with the ROY tag.

Florida Marlins
Anibal Sanchez, SP
2007 PECOTA Projection: 11-11, 190 IP, 157 K, 4.22 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Notable Comparable: Joel Pineiro
BP Comments: Given his ultra-low BABIP (.243) and the fact that he nearly cut his career home run rate in half last year, it’s easy to see why he’s a good candidate for some regression.
My Comments: Typical of PECOTA and BP, a young pitcher with a league-average strikeout rate, who made a drastic improvement, is expected to have a significant regression. Sanchez was fairly lucky with a good defense behind him, but he still has that good defense in place and still pitches in a severely favorable pitcher’s park. The no-hitter got him more recognition than he deserved and padded his stats, but he’s still capable of a sub-4.00 ERA with solid production n 2007. While Pineiro is the most notable comparable, a little further down the list is Tom Seaver. He’ll never be Seaver, but consider him somewhere in a favorable middle on that scale.

Houston Astros
Luke Scott, RF
2007 PECOTA Projection: 76 R, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 5 SB, .269 AVG
Notable Comparable: Paul O’Neill
BP Comments: Scott’s been a career .280/.366/.534 hitter in the minor leagues, which suggests he has something to contribute at the major-league level….He has a solid (if short) future as a platoon outfielder.
My Comments: Obviously, Scott isn’t going to come anywhere near his. 336 of a year ago, but a well-seasoned, smart hitter with a good track record like his, indicate that he could be the #5 hitter the Astros so desperately need behind Lee/Berkman. His PECOTA projections seems pretty fair and I think he could have some solid value as a #4/#5 fantasy OF, depending on the makeup of a given team. He possesses good power and enough plate discipline to get by as a fantasy option.

Kansas City Royals
Ambiorix Burgos, RP
2007 PECOTA Projections: 3-3, 61 IP, 58 K, 3.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Notable Comparable: Mike Jackson
BP Comments: He still throws very, very hard, and he doesn’t turn 23 until after the season begins. Burgos moves to the inferior league, against hitters not familiar with him, and Shea Stadium is a godsend for power pitchers.
My Comments: Typical of a high-striekout rate pitcher with a power arm, PECOTA gives him a very favorable projection. Burgos is still very much lacking command for all the heat he throws, and was grouped in earlier in the book with Jorge Julio as a pitcher most likely to give up either a walk, strikeout, or home run against every batter he faces. He has good upside and closer potential, but even a league-switch a stadium upgrade will not likely churn out results that good in 2007.

Los Angeles Angels
Jered Weaver, SP
2007 PECOTA Projection: 14-10, 205.2 IP, 177 K, 3.76 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Notable Comparable: Dennis Eckersley
BP Comments: He’s going to settle in as a solid second or third starter, sort of what his brother has been at the best of times, while being every bit as much of a high-intensity moundsman with excellent command of a broad assortment of pitches.
My Comments: Based on his pedigree, his size, his repetoire, his 2006 results as a very inexperienced rookie, his 2007 PECOTA projection, and comparable, you would think Jered got a little better capsule than being that of his brother’s equal. BP coined the term TINSTAAPP (There’s no such thing as a pitching prospect), and while their precautions with young pitchers are often relevant, the bar seems to be set unjustly low by BP. He could even beat out his PECOTA projections, but after a rough ending to the season, if he puts up those numbers this year, it’s still a very good campaign, and puts him in line for a very big year in 2008.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Takashi Saito, RP
2007 PECOTA Projection: 3-4, 21 SV, 56 IP, 58 K, 3.85 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Notable Comparable: Rudy Seanez
BP Comments: Overall, he lead major league relievers in strikeouts….didn’t allow a homer after May 15, and skinned right-handers alive (.129/.205/.193). Rather than overpay for damaged goods in Eric Gagne, the Dodgers persuaded Saito to remain stateside with a one-year, $1 million deal, providing considerably better bang for their buck.
My Comments: With a reduced workload as the slated fulltime closer, a sharp dropoff in K’s could affect his value of a year ago, especially with added pressure and facing hitters who are now familiar with him. I think he’ll beat his PECOTA projection, but should he struggle as closer, he’ll still have very good value with K rates and if he is used properly, and gets to face a ton of righties in mid-innings. Either way, while 2006 will be difficult to repeat, he should have solid value on a winning team that will give him the necessary save opportunities.

I’ll finish off the second half of the teams sometime later this week, but I’ll conclude for now with some of the best lines that I’ve come across thus far:

-On 25-year old Braves prospect, Tony Pena:
If he limits his ambitions to winning a deathmatch with Pete Orr, he might end up happy.

-On Cincinnati Reds shortstop, Alex Gonzalez
Thanks to the midseason retirement of his eponymous counterpart, here’s the winner of the last Last Alex Gonzalez Standing award, a boon to anyone incapable of remembering which was which.

-On Cincinnati Reds’ outfielder Brandon Watson
Like most aspiring fifth outfield types, he hits lefty, runs well, can handle playing center, and lights a candle every week praying to Tom Goodwin, their patron saint, that he, too, will someday luck into an everyday job.

-On free agent reliever Danny Graves
Graves spent the offseason looking for a spring training invite. In 2005 and 2006 combined, his ERA was 6.32 and he allowed 12 home runs in 52.2 innings-the sort of performance that makes a team send a guy invites to other people’s camps.

-On Marlins’ reliever Randy Messenger
If his control problems are more or less behind him, Messenger is a pretty average reliever, which isn’t a bad thing, so don’t shoot him.