Here’s a recap of the four fantasy predictions I made this spring training and their actual outcomes:
Saturday, 2/23/08: The Indians trade Cliff Lee and promote either Aaron Laffey or Jeremy Sowers to the 5th spot in the rotation (leaning toward Laffey). The best guess on Lee’s possible destination: Cincinnati. The Reds currently lack a lefty starter and can easily fit him into a weak rotation.
What actually happened: The Indians, rather than trade Lee, promoted him back into the rotation as their #5 starter. Laffey, along with fellow youngsters Jeremy Sowers and Adam Miller, currently form the backbone of an imposing AAA rotation. Lee’s rotation stay could be short if any of the three get hot and teams start seeking lefty starters.
Wednesday, 2/27/08: After hitting .335 in 173 at-bats last season, Cody Ross carries his hot streak over to spring training and wins the starting centerfield job over superprospect Cameron Maybin and last year’s spring training victor, Alejandro de Aza.
What actually happened: Ross did win the centerfield job, but according to reports, he’ll likely have to share time with utility hitter Alfredo Amezaga. Maybin will open the year in AAA and de Aza was placed on the 15-day DL. It’s Ross’s job to lose at this point, even if he loses some at-bats to Amegaza and possibly Luis Gonzalez, once Jeremy Hermida comes off the DL.
Saturday, 3/15/08: Despite a crowded outfield, newly re-acquired Met, hot-hitting Angel Pagan, makes the team and replaces Moises Alou as the starter in left field until Alou returns from injury. As a result, Endy Chavez opens the season as the fourth outfielder, Damion Easley and Marlon Anderson as pinch-hitters, and superprospect Fernando Martinez in AAA.
What actually happened: Pagan kept his hot streak going through the spring, and as I expected, it was enough to win him the starting left field job while Alou rehabs on the DL. Chavez, Easley, and Anderson could all still see time in left, but the majority of their at-bats will be off the bench. Martinez was optioned back to AA Binghamton.
Wednesday, 3/19/08: Despite Joe Crede’s back issues and disappointing 2007 season, he wins the Opening Day starting third base job with a healthy, solid spring training. As a result, Josh Fields is optioned to AAA so he can play everyday rather than waste away on the major-league bench. Pablo Ozuna, who will also lose his position battle (at second base) will be kept on board as a utility player and Crede’s primary back-up at 3B. The trade rumors swirling around Crede will persist and pick up steam if he gets off to hot start this year.
What actually happened: Crede won the third base job, Fields will open the year as the starting 3B in AAA, and as expected, Ozuna will be relied on as the primary back-up to Crede after losing the 2B competition to Juan Uribe.
Prediction Success: 75%
I was pretty much on the money on the Pagan and Crede predictions. Technically, I was right on Cody Ross winning the CF job, despite a potential platoon lurking in the future once Hermida comes off the DL. But I flat out missed on the assumption that Cliff Lee would be dealt and replaced by Aaron Laffey in the rotation – though I rule out the possibility of this eventually happening at some point this season.
Posted by James 