AL West Fantasy Preview

The AL West has been a two-team race between the Oakland A’s and Los Angeles Angels since the Mariners posted their 116-win, MLB-best record in 2001. The A’s and Angels have been on opposite ends of the spectrum in years past, as the Angels have relied heavily on key free agent acquisitions, a big payroll, and a productive offense. In contrast, the A’s have built their success largely on homegrown talent through the minor leagues, a diminutive payroll, and top-notch pitching. With each squad addressing their weaknesses to the best of their abilities and deviating more toward balanced squads, the race could be as tight as ever in 2007. Both have been hit hard by injuries and the Angels have some detrimental off-the-field issues including Gary Matthews, Jr. getting linked to the steroid scene and the resulting clubhouse chemistry, meanwhile the A’s have some big shoes to fill with Bob Geren replacing Ken Macha as manager, Mike Piazza replacing Frank Thomas at DH, and quite a few new faces on the field due to injuries striking early and often.

Despite both squads expected to be amongst the best the AL has to offer, they’ll have some added pressure to maintain success with a revived, reloaded Texas Rangers unit that could be a serious sleeper in 2007. Ron Washington takes over as manager after years as a successful assistant coach and with him includes arguably the best rotation the team has produced in the last decade, one of the best infields in baseball, a solid bullpen, and good team chemistry. The Rangers could have some back of the rotation issues and their outfield could struggle to be productive, but they’re an all-around solid squad who could surprise this season.

Finally, rounding out the division are the Mariners, who are still in the midst of an extended rebuilding phase. General manager Bill Bavasi continues to spend heavily on mediocre, aging veterans, while ignoring the farm system and the bullpen. The Mariners have some very good cornerstone players in Ichiro, Felix Hernandez, J.J. Putz, and Raul Ibanez, but the overspending on below-average arms like Jeff Weaver and Miguel Batista, while relying on the low-upside, inexperienced relievers and a weak bench will likely keep them in the cellar for at least another season.

The AL West never disappoints regarding their competitiveness to take home the division crown and with two evenly matched teams atop the division and with a potential dark horse emerging, it should come down to the wire again in 2007. Whether or not the AL West representative is good enough to match up with the winners in the east and the central and end the division’s recent playoff futility is yet to be seen.

Here are my predictions for the division:

Standings:

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Oakland A’s
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners

1. Los Angeles Angels
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 90.5
My Prediction: Over (91-93)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 1
Defense: 2
Bench: 1
Starting Pitching: 1
Bullpen: 1

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Howie Kendrick, 2B
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Gary Matthews, Jr., CF
Top Sleeper: Ervin Santana, SP
Deep Sleeper: Casey Kotchman, 1B

2. Oakland A’s
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 85.5
My Prediction: Over (86-88)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 4
Defense: 1
Bench: 4
Starting Pitching: 2
Bullpen: 2

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Eric Chavez, 3B
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Bobby Crosby, SS
Top Sleeper: Milton Bradley, CF
Deep Sleeper: Travis Buck, OF

3. Texas Rangers
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 80.5
My Prediction: Over (81-83)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 2
Defense: 3-t
Bench: 2
Starting Pitching: 3
Bullpen: 3

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Hank Blalock, 3B
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Eric Gagne, RP
Top Sleeper: Brandon McCarthy, SP
Deep Sleeper: Jason Botts, DH

4. Seattle Mariners
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 77.5
My Prediction: Under (71-73)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 3
Defense: 3-t
Bench: 3
Starting Pitching: 4
Bullpen: 4

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Felix Hernandez, SP
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Jeff Weaver, SP
Top Sleeper: Arthur Rhodes, RP
Deep Sleeper: Yuniesky Betancourt, SS

AL West All-Fantasy Starting Lineup:

C: Kenji Johjima, SEA
1B: Mark Teixeira, TEX
2B: Howie Kendrick, LAA
SS: Michael Young, TEX
3B: Adrian Beltre, SEA
RF: Vladimir Guerrero, LAA
CF: Ichiro Suzuki, SEA
LF: Raul Ibanez, SEA
DH: Nick Swisher, OAK

SP1: John Lackey, LAA
SP2: Rich Harden, OAK
SP3: Dan Haren, OAK
SP4: Felix Hernandez, SEA
SP5: Kevin Millwood, TEX
RP1: Francisco Rodriguez, LAA
RP2: J.J. Putz, SEA

AL West Top 5 Prospects for 2007:

1. Daric Barton, OAK
2. Travis Buck, OAK
3. Erick Aybar, LAA
4. Adam Jones, SEA
5. Brandon Wood, LAA

AL Central Fantasy Preview

The AL Central is likely to be the most competitive division in baseball in 2007 with four teams, who all have a very good shot at winning the pennant. The Twins, last year’s division champs, who eeked out the division in the final day of the regular season over the dominant Tigers, will be pushed to the limit once again to repeat as champs, this time by three teams. Without a clear-cut favorite, the Twins are a safe pick to win it again, but without a legitimate #2 starter and a middle-of-the-pack lineup, they’ll be forced to rely heavily on Johan Santana, the bullpen, and the few offensive bright spots.

The Tigers still have their pitching staff intact, a top-notch bullpen, and an all-around solid lineup that has no noticable weak spot, but they’ll have to fight off the fluke tag and hope for the best out of a pitching staff that was well overworked late last season. The 2005 World Series champion Chicago White Sox are also a legitimate contender once again after bolstering their bullpen, shaking up the rotation, and improving upon their role players and have the most experience and intangibles in their favor. Finally, the Indians, who finished six games under .500 and 18 games back of the division, have been favored by more of the “experts” than any of their division rivals to take home in the crown in the best division in baseball.

With four stellar, competitive teams, all with potent lineups and star-studded rosters, the budding Kansas City Royals get lost in the mix. Yes, the Royals are still the laughing stock of the AL (Tampa Bay excluded), but they added an ace, have a very strong bench, and have arguably the best set of major-leaguer prospects in all of baseball, many of which who could see significant playing time in 2007 and make this team bearable to watch. The Royals will be far from competitive in this stacked division, but they’ll be better than their record indicates and could play a deciding role in the outcome in a spoiler role.

Here are my predictions for the division:

Standings:

1. Cleveland Indians
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals

1. Cleveland Indians
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 86.0
My Prediction: Over (90-92)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 1
Defense: 4t
Bench: 1
Starting Pitching: 2
Bullpen: 4

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Josh Barfield, 2B
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Paul Byrd, SP
Top Sleeper: Jake Westbrook, SP
Deep Sleeper: Ryan Garko, 1B

2. Detroit Tigers
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 88.5
My Prediction: Under (87-89)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 2
Defense: 1
Bench: 5
Starting Pitching: 1
Bullpen: 2

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Gary Sheffield, DH
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Kenny Rogers, SP
Top Sleeper: Nate Robertson, SP
Deep Sleeper: Andrew Miller, SP

3. Minnesota Twins
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 83.5
My Prediction: Over (83-85)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 3t
Defense: 2
Bench: 2
Starting Pitching: 4
Bullpen: 1

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Jason Kubel, OF
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Ramon Ortiz, SP
Top Sleeper: Boof Bonser, SP
Deep Sleeper: Jeff Cirillo, INF

4. Chicago White Sox
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 88.5
My Prediction: Under (79-81)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 3t
Defense: 4t
Bench: 4
Starting Pitching: 3
Bullpen: 3

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Scott Podsednik, OF
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Jon Garland, SP
Top Sleeper: Mike MacDougal, RP
Deep Sleeper: Josh Fields, 3B

5. Kansas City Royals
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 67.0
My Prediction: Over (67-69)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 5
Defense: 3
Bench: 3
Starting Pitching: 5
Bullpen: 5

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Octavio Dotel, RP
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Gil Meche, SP
Top Sleeper: Esteban German, INF
Deep Sleeper: Zach Grienke, SP

AL Central All-Fantasy Starting Lineup:

C: Joe Mauer, MIN
1B: Justin Morneau, MIN
2B: Josh Barfield, CLE
SS: Carlos Guillen, DET
3B: Joe Crede, CWS
RF: Jermaine Dye, CWS
CF: Grady Sizemore, CLE
LF: Mark Teahen, KAN
DH: Travis Hafner, CLE

SP1: Johan Santana, MIN
SP2: Jeremy Bonderman, DET
SP3: C.C. Sabathia, CLE
SP4: Justin Verlander, DET
SP5: Javier Vazquez, CWS
RP1: Joe Nathan, MIN
RP2: Joel Zumaya, DET

AL Central Top 5 Prospects for 2007:

1. Alex Gordon, KAN
2. Ryan Garko, CLE
3. Andrew Miller, DET
4. Matt Garza, MIN
5. Luke Hochevar, KAN

AL East Fantasy Preview

What was generally referred to as a perennial two-team race for nearly a decade saw a shake-up near the top as the Blue Jays made a late surge past the Red Sox in September to finish in 2nd place behind the Yankees. As usual, it has been another highly-publicized, active offseason for both the Red Sox and the Yankees, which should once again establish them as the favorite to finish atop the division. The Blue Jays followed up their big-spending 2006 offseason with another, though not quite as active, productive winter. The Orioles attempted to plug up their holes, but still generally lack starting pitching and while the Devil Rays will finally get to see some of the organization’s premier prospects reach the big leagues, it doesn’t appear to be enough of an impact to make up for their lack of pitching and experience. One thing that appears to ge the norm throughout the AL East is a focus on offense. All of these teams have a tremendous ability to score runs, but each one has their own weakness in the pitching department. Could another shake up occur? It’s possible, but unlikely. Here are my predictions for the 2007 AL East:

Standings

1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4 Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

New York Yankees:
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 97
My Prediction: Under (92-94)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 1
Defense: 4
Bench: 1
Starting Pitching: 2
Bullpen: t-1

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Hideki Matsui, LF
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Jason Giambi, DH
Top Sleeper: Melky Cabrera, OF
Deep Sleeper: Philip Hughes, SP

Boston Red Sox:
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 91
My Prediction: Under (88-90)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 3
Defense: 1
Bench: 2
Starting Pitching: 1
Bullpen: 4

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Josh Beckett, SP
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Julio Lugo, SS
Top Sleeper: Kevn Youkilis, 1B
Deep Sleeper: Jon Lester, SP

Toronto Blue Jays
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 86 1/2
My Prediction: Over (86-88)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 2
Defense: 2
Bench: 3
Starting Pitching: 3
Bullpen: t-1

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: A.J. Burnett, SP
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Reed Johnson, LF
Top Sleeper: Alex Rios, RF
Deep Sleeper: Victor Zambrano, SP

Baltimore Orioles:
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 74
My Prediction: Under (70-72)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 5
Defense: 3
Bench: 5
Starting Pitching: 4
Bullpen: 3

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Nick Markakis, LF
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Corey Patterson, CF
Top Sleeper: Adam Loewen, SP
Deep Sleeper: Garrett Olson, SP

Tampa Bay Devil Rays:
Official Over/Under Line on Wins: 67 1/2
My Prediction: Over (69-71)

Divisional Rankings:
Offense: 4
Defense: 5
Bench: 4
Starting Pitching: 5
Bullpen: 5

Biggest Fantasy Improvement: Rocco Baldelli, CF
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Ty Wigginton, 1B
Top Sleeper: James Shields, SP
Deep Sleeper: Dioner Navarro, C

AL East All-Fantasy Starting Lineup:

C: Ramon Hernandez, BAL
1B: Lyle Overbay, TOR
2B: Robinson Cano, NYY
SS: Derek Jeter, NYY
3B: Alex Rodriguez, NYY
RF: Bobby Abreu, NYY
CF: Vernon Wells, TOR
LF: Manny Ramirez, BOS
DH: David Ortiz, BOS

SP1: Roy Halladay, TOR
SP2: Curt Schilling, BOS
SP3: Scott Kazmir, TAM
SP4: Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS
SP5: Mike Mussina, NYY
RP1: B.J. Ryan, TOR
RP2: Mariano Rivera, NYY

AL East Top 5 Prospects:

1. Delmon Young, TAM
2. Philip Hughes, NYY
3. Jeff Nieman, TAM
4. Adam Lind, TOR
5. Dustin Pedroia, BOS