2008 Regular Season, Playoff, & Fantasy Baseball Predictions Post

In celebration of the 2008 season kicking off this week, we decided to deviate a bit from standard fantasy baseball information and make our picks and predictions for the upcoming season. We’ll pick the divisional standings, playoff results, regular season award winners, sleepers, busts, top prospects, and a starting fantasy lineup for each division for bragging rights at the end of the season.

Please note that in an effort to avoid repetition, we opted not to consider our Rookie of the Year picks for each league in our divisional top prospect picks. Also, the utility/DH position in each divisional fantasy starting lineup is essentially the best hitter who’s not the best at his position – it is not reserved exclusively for DHs or players without any positional eligibility.

Without further adieu, our 2008 regular season, playoff, and fantasy baseball picks and predictions:

2008 Non-Roster Invitee Report

Last year, I covered both the American League and National League Non-Roster Invitees in great depth and while it made for an interesting topic, many of the entries had very little, if any, fantasy relevance last season. This year to ensure more efficient writing and less “intriguing storyline” fluff that really didn’t contribute to fantasy baseball in any way, I’ve decided to list the top ten potential fantasy relevant non-prospect non-roster invitees by division. By non-prospect, I mean any seasoned veterans to minor league free agents whose minor-league eligibility ran out in 2008 and were free to join other teams. It is pretty much eligible to everyone except the team’s top prospects who were invited before most of them are inevitably reassigned to minor league camp. As a result, you won’t see names like Jay Bruce (Reds), Fernando Martinez (Mets), or Jordan Schafer (Braves). This pool is strictly limited to players who have paid their dues in the minors or are already established veterans.

Before the division-by-division breakdown, please note I will be using the same criterion as last season to gauge potential value. It is a combination of predicted playing time and the potential success of the player if they receive adequate playing time. Each non-roster invitee will be followed by two numbers representing the following:

1) On a scale from 1-10, the likelihood of making the team, either out of spring training or getting a call up during the season. It is a rough scale to predict potential playing time, and the more immediate the playing time, the better the score.
2) On a scale from 1-10, the impact the player is likely to have upon receiving adequate playing time.

American League East Top 10 Non-Prospect Non-Roster Invitees:

1) Bartolo Colon, SP, Red Sox (7.5/6.0)
2) Morgan Ensberg, 1B/3B, Yankees (6.5/5.0)
3) Steve Trachsel, SP, Orioles (8.0/4.5)
4) Darrell Rasner, SP, Yankees (6.0/4.5)
5) Eric Hinske, 1B/3B/OF, Rays (5.5/4.0)
6) Shannon Stewart, OF, Blue Jays (5.5/4.0)
7) Kevin Cash, C, Red Sox (7.5/3.0)
8) John Rodriguez, OF, Rays (4.5/3.5)
9) Armando Benitez, RP, Blue Jays (5.0/3.0)
10) Heath Phillips, SP, Yankees (3.5/3.5)

The Catcher Primer

I don’t plan on devoting a primer to every position, but upon breaking down the fantasy options at catcher this year, I felt inspired to produce some sort of article on the way the position has evolved. The catcher position has always been fantasy baseball’s black hole, usually forcing half of the owners in standard-sized leagues to sift through waiver-wire material in the latter half of a draft just to find someone to plug into the spot. In the late 90’s, you either got Mike Piazza or Ivan Rodriguez, or you waited until the end of the draft to find a catcher. These days, while the position might still be the thinnest in fantasy baseball, there’s a lot more depth than there was before.

Last year, I went through the position and found twelve guys who I all thought were worthy of undisputed fantasy starter status at catcher. A few of those guys dropped off or lost their eligibility, and while I don’t think the talent pool is as good as it was a year ago, there is still a very good mix of front-line producers, established veteran hitters, and up-and-coming prospects. Upon breaking down the position on a team-by-team basis, there are a lot of potential platoons in the making, but there are enough undisputed starters that, in standard-sized leagues, everyone will be able to find at least a mediocre hitter who will play 4-5 times a week.

I found it most beneficial to break the position down in varying levels of fantasy value and I think these tiers and the separation they create is pretty rigid, which will play a big role in catcher draft strategy this year. There’s a clear divide between the elite and the second-tier and it’s pretty clear where the line can be drawn between undisputed starters that will need to be targeted by the middle rounds and the debatable starters, who you won’t have to feel compelled to draft right away. Here’s what I came up with for the catcher position in 2008:

Note: This is a class-by-class ranking system for this year’s catchers. I’ve come up with three flexible divisions: starters, borderline starters, and fantasy non-options. Within the class of starters (top ten), there are two subdivisions: first and second tier starters. Within the borderline starters, there are four sub-categories: up-and-comers, third-tier veterans, pure power hitters, and potential platooners. Finally, in the “non-options” division, there is one subdivision for full-time starters who offer minimal fantasy upside (defensive specialists) and the top ten tentative back-ups.

The Starters

The First-Tier Fantasy Starters:

1. Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
2007: .301, 25 HR, 114 RBI, 78 R, 0 SB

Arguably the best power-hitting catcher in baseball, Martinez was the only catcher last season to top 20 HRs and the only catcher to top 100 RBIs. He has no injury concerns and is a lifetime .301 hitter. If he’s not the best fantasy option this year, then he’s in the top two.

The Top Ten Storylines of 2008

At the outset of every fantasy season, there are a small number of themes or topics that grab the headlines and inevitably set the tone for most fantasy drafts and auctions. Every year, these teams provide the basis and general overview for what to expect in the coming year and while they’re not all-encompassing, they provide an informative foundation for the upcoming season. In order to ensure the most efficient and successful draft, you’ll need to go beyond just the attention-grabbing headline stories and major themes. Nevertheless, I’ve found that recapping the most powerful storylines of the offseason and those with the biggest direct effect on fantasy drafts and early roster set-ups and building off of them often makes for an effective way to open a fantasy season. So without further adieu:

1. The Three-Hundred Million Dollar Man

When it comes to controversial, emotional, and attention-grabbing headlines (that don’t have to deal with steroids or performance-enhancing drugs), no one monopolizes the market like Alex Rodriguez. Prior to A-Rod signing his second record-shattering contract in baseball history, Yahoo! Sports did a team-by-team offseason primer for every team in the league and every team had a section devoted to their chances of signing him; they called it the A-Rod-Meter. No one receives the special media attention A-Rod does, but no one can say he hasn’t earned it. Not only did he lead the league in media coverage last year, he won the AL MVP, and was, far and away, the most productive fantasy option in all formats.

After he lit up opposing pitchers to the tune .314-54-156 and was practically handed the MVP award in August, he stole the offseason limelight by not only opting out of the then-richest contract in baseball history, but doing so in the midst of the World Series, and then signing the new richest contract in baseball history with the same team. A-Rod agreed to the framework of a 10-year, $275 million deal, that also includes $30 million in bonuses when he inevitably sets the home run record in the next decade.

Money? Check. Media attention? Check. Awards? Check. It’s no surprise A-Rod is the superstar he is and poster boy for media coverage, but what does this all mean in terms of fantasy baseball? In a nutshell: the owner who holds the #1 pick is not only taking A-Rod, but he’s not even thinking twice about it.

Last year on March 7th, I did an Average Draft Position Report and discovered that Albert Pujols’ ADP was 1.08 (which I said was “about as close to a consensus #1 overall pick as you’ll ever get). Turns out I was wrong. Between engulfing last year’s consensus #1 Pujols’ production, leading all hitters in runs scored, home runs, RBIs, SLG, and OPS, sticking around to play in one of the most potent lineups in baseball, and earning the richest salary of all-time, A-Rod’s ADP is currently 1.06. This means (since according to the report he hasn’t been taken lower than #2 overall in any draft) that, on average, in every 100 drafts, A-Rod goes #1 overall in 94 of them and #2 overall in the other 6.

So, in an ideal world, if you have the #1 overall pick, you take A-Rod. Even if you don’t like him, rather have David Wright at third, or think he’ll flop this year, you take him and you trade him for a king’s ransom. Hanley Ramirez is currently second on the ADP report and at this point even he could fetch A-Rod in a trade without a top of the line starter or a second-tier third base replacement. A-Rod’s value right now is more dominant than his media attention and there’s really no reason to doubt it. He’s still in his prime (as obvious by last season) at age 33 and the closest thing the man has had to a down year in the last decade is a 36-106-.286-28 campaign that most hitters would dream about having.

Though, as we’ve annually seen, being the top-ranking fantasy player before the season starts, doesn’t mean you’ll still be there at the end of the season. Last year, Albert Pujols was #1 on the ADP charts, this year he’s #7. Last fall, no one dared pass on LaDainian Tomlinson with the #1 pick in fantasy football drafts, and while he may have been the most productive, he didn’t possess the stranglehold over the rest of the competition like everyone expected. A-Rod is the clear-cut headliner of this fantasy season, but as history has shown us, there’s no guarantee he will back here next season.

Ranking the Rotations: National League

On Thursday, February 21st, we kicked off the 2008 Fantasy Baseball season by ranking the American League rotations. Today, in the second article of the series, we follow-up with the National League:

National League Starting Rotations

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Tentative Rotation:
1. Brad Penny
2. Jason Schmidt
3. Derek Lowe
4. Hiroki Kuroda
5. Chad Billingsley

Review: The rotation may lack a lefty, but when everyone is healthy, the Dodgers are loaded with four veteran arms, all capable of being top-of-the-rotation pitchers. The fifth, Chad Billingsley, is a 22-year old future All-star, coming off his first full-season workload in the majors that resulted in a 12-5 record, 3.31 ERA, and 141/66 K/BB rate. In most rotations, Billingsley would fit in as a #2/#3. In Los Angeles, he’s the #5, who will have to wait a long time before he gets his shot as an ace. He can thank last year’s All-star game starter Brad Penny (16-4, 3.03), Derek Lowe, who’s averaging 15 wins over the last six seasons and has three straight sub-4.00 ERA campaigns, and rapidly-rehabbing Jason Schmidt, who prior to last year’s injury-riddled season, was considered a bona fide ace and a top five starter in the National League. Not to mention, the Dodgers also went out an signed Japanese standout Hiroki Kuroda, a 32-year old in his peak, who could’ve been signed as a #2/#3 starter elsewhere.

Ranking most contingent upon: The health of Jason Schmidt and the legitimacy of Hiroki Kuroda’s success in Japan. Schmidt underwent season-ending right shoulder surgery last June and the initial timetable had him getting off to a delayed start this year. In his first bullpen session of the spring, he proved to be well ahead of schedule, impressing new manager Joe Torre, and making the notion of him being ready for Opening Day a likely reality. Kuroda, the second star starter to come over from Japan in the last two years, was 91-81 with a career 3.77 ERA in 10 seasons, but Daisuke Matsuzaka was 93-45 with a 2.81 career ERA before coming over and he only finished with a 4.40 ERA in his debut season. Kuroda is a more low-upside, low-risk pitcher who could get off to a better start, but will have a lot to prove on his $10,000,000+ a year salary. Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Hiroki Kuroda doesn’t possess the same electric stuff as Matsuzaka did going into last season, but he’s a bit older, a bit more experienced and a bit more refined. He doesn’t have the ace potential Dice-K does, but with a good mix of pitches and a high baseball IQ, combined with pitching in a pitcher-friendly home park in the pitcher-friendliest division in baseball, it could result in a similar season to Dice-K’s 15 wins and 4.40 ERA a year ago or better.

Subject to Change: Penny, Lowe, Kuroda, and Billingsley are all but assured of a starting role and their spots within the rotation. The wildcard is Jason Schmidt. The Dodgers were half-expecting to open the season without him and their projected rotation prior to his first bullpen session had veteran Esteban Loiaza as the interim fill-in at #5 until Schmidt was ready to return. If Schmidt is healthy, this is all but concrete; if not, Loiaza should be the favorite to fill out the rotation for now.

On The Radar: Esteban Loiaza is the favorite because he’s a solid veteran pitcher with enough left in the tank to maintain a starting job and should be a capable fifth starter fill-in. The Dodgers didn’t invite any of their top pitching prospects to training camp this spring and without any intriguing arms out of the bullpen, as long as Loiaza can hold off a few interesting, but non-threatening non-roster invitees, he’s the only one legitimately on the radar if Schmidt isn’t ready to go.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks

Tentative Rotation:
1. Brandon Webb
2. Randy Johnson
3. Dan Haren
4. Doug Davis
5. Micah Owings

Review: If Schmidt isn’t healthy to open the year, the Diamondbacks could easily have the best and deepest rotation in baseball. Of course, after acquiring stud 26-year-old Dan Haren to give them arguably the best 1-2 punch in baseball with one of the game’s most reliable pitchers and 2006 Cy Young Award winner, Brandon Webb, their success may also hinge on the health of a rehabbing veteran. Randy Johnson may be one of the greatest of all-time, but in order to provide a bridge between righties Haren and Webb, he’ll need to show his 44-year-old weathered arm, body, and frame can still handle a full-season workload. He showed he’s still effective when he’s healthy, but the emphasis is on when he’s healthy, which wasn’t the case for the majority of last season. Doug Davis, a prototypical unglamorous but solid lefty, and Micah Owings, coming off a strong rookie debut round out a talented rotation.

Ranking most contingent upon: Randy Johnson’s health. The Diamondbacks would like to interject a lefty between Webb and Haren in the two-hole and Davis doesn’t have the arm to hold down the spot. If Johnson isn’t 100%, it moves every one up a spot and the rotation doesn’t look quite as good on paper.

Ranking the Rotations: American League

In my first series of articles for 2008, I’ve decided to focus on perhaps the most unpredictable aspect on fantasy baseball: starting pitching. There’s a reason the first round is almost always dominated with position players and it’s not because point-for-point they’re that much for valuable in head-to-head or roto leagues, but because they’re much more reliable. Take the top five, six positional players in the fantasy baseball, guys like Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, David Wright, Vladimir Guerrero, Miguel Cabrera. Alfonso Soriano, David Ortiz and so on. When was the last time any of them had a bad season or a disappointing year that significantly prevented your team from winning? Even with Pujols’ “down year” last year, he was still one of the game’s best hitters and his .327-32-103 would’ve been considered a career year for 90% of the league.

Now, take the top five or six starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, Johan Santana aside, and scattered about will be several years of disappointment for various reasons (see: Jake Peavy, 2006, or Chris Carpenter, 2007). Pitchers obviously are more prone to injury, but there are also seems to be a much higher variance of inconsistency even amongst the game’s elite in comparison to hitters. Again in 2008, there’s no shortage of risks when it comes to drafting your starting rotation, and this year the risk is more stratified than ever. The risks and red flags start right at the top, with questions of whether or not Johan Santana will be able to handle the pressure of New York or if he’ll crumble like many superstars before him, and it goes straight on down through the line, including big-name pitchers such as: Josh Beckett (weight gain?), Curt Schilling (retirement?), Dontrelle Willis (overrated?), Pedro Martinez (endurance?), Dan Haren (fluke?), Erik Bedard (fully healed?), Fausto Carmona (fluke?), and so on and so forth.

Before we poke and prod this year’s starting pitching class and determine who is and isn’t worth the risk (and who’s of no risk at all), it’s best we start by laying the groundwork with an overview of each team’s rotational situation. No rotation is set in stone and the overall condition of a team’s rotation, including the other pitchers of which its comprised, can often heavily influence an individual pitcher’s outlook, so without further adieu, the first half of this year’s rotational rankings:

American League Starting Rotations

1. Los Angeles Angels

Tentative Rotation:
1. John Lackey
2. Kelvim Escobar
3. Jon Garland
4. Jered Weaver
5. Joe Saunders

Review: With the addition of Jon Garland, the Angels’ rotation went from a top-heavy unit with questionable inexperience on the back-end to possibly the best in baseball. Jon Garland is not the type of pitcher who puts a team over the top (nor was he alone worth Orlando Cabrera), but he’s a prototypical #3 starter in this league. He wins double-digit games, stays healthy, has good endurance, is in his prime, and has the experience and reliability managers look for. Combined with two Cy Young favorites in Lackey and Escobar at the top and two highly-touted young arm on the back in Weaver and Saunders, and Garland is the perfect compliment in the middle.

Ranking most contingent upon: Joe Saunders, the team’s lone lefty starter, extrapolating his average-to-above-average production in his first full season in the rotation.

Biggest Potential Bust/Surprise: Jered Weaver seems to have been buried on most fantasy boards and depth charts, especially now as his team’s fourth starter, but he should be earmarked as a mid-round sleeper. He dominated in his first big-league season in 2006 (after minimal minor league experience), and despite injury and inconsistency, still won 13 games with a near 3/1 K/BB rate and a sub-4.00 ERA. At age 24, he hasn’t even approached his prime and back at full strength in 2008, he could on the horizon of a very impressive fantasy campaign, especially with a strong offense and defense behind him.

Subject to Change: One of the reasons this is the top rotation in the American League is because there are no question marks at this time. All five pitchers are healthy, and not only are they locked into the rotation, but so is their sequential order.

On The Radar: Ervin Santana, who still has plenty of potential, and one of the liveliest arms in the game, will likely start the season in AAA. The bar was set high for him in 2007 and he came up significantly short. His primary reason for the downfall: an inability to pitch on the road. He was just 1-10 with eyesores in the ERA and opposing batting average department, at 8.38 and .325, respectively. He also has some control and confidence issues to work on, but barring an injury, he’ll start the year on the outside looking in. The Angels, at this time, show no interest in trading him.

2. Toronto Blue Jays

Fourth Outfielders

With the usual, solid depth in the outfield in any given season, combined with the fact that just about every league allows you to carry a few hitters on the bench, selecting your back-ups outfielders (specifically your 4th outfielder) can have a considerable impact on your team. Fourth outfielders, even if your OF stays in perfect health (which almost never happens), should see a good amount of playing time between slumps, off-days, and what have you. Fourth outfielders should be able to start in a pinch, have the potential for long-term starting, and in leagues that specify by outfield position, should be able to handle at least two of the three OF positions. For this article, I am going to subjectively establish the outfielders I believe are starters, based on IDP reports, rankings, and stats, and from that, I will draw together the best fourth outfield candidates for 12-team, non-specific OF position, leagues.

When creating this list of the best fourth outfielder candidates, I realized that I was starting to group some of the candidates together based on their niche; then I eventually realized I could roughly group each set of a few into general categories. Some of the 4th outfielders qualified for more than one category, but most of which are pretty well-defined by the one I selected for them. Upon completion of the top 4th outfield candidates and their groupings, I’ll rank them all at the bottom based on potential, startability, and value.

This Year’s OF Starters:

Note: In a 12-team league, there will be 36 OF starters, but this list includes the top 39 outfielders, since Lance Berkman, Nick Swisher, and Adam Dunn, will all have first base eligibility, but have been equally split between 1B/OF in drafts thus far. One players noticeably absent is Chone Figgins, whose abilities and positional flexibility best suit him as an infielder, and since he is currently injured, I felt it was best to just leave him off the list.

Bobby Abreu (NYY), Rocco Baldelli (TAM), Jason Bay (PIT), Carlos Beltran (NYM), Lance Berkman (HOU), Pat Burrell (PHI), Eric Byrnes (ARZ), Mike Cameron (SDO), Carl Crawford (TAM), Coco Crisp (BOS), Mike Cuddyer (MIN), Johnny Damon (NYY), J.D. Drew (BOS), Adam Dunn (CIN), Jermaine Dye (CWS), Jeff Francouer (ATL), Vladimir Guerrero (LAA), Brad Hawpe (COL), Matt Holliday (COL), Torii Hunter (MIN), Raul Ibanez (SEA), Andruw Jones (ATL), Austin Kearns (WAS), Carlos Lee (HOU), Nick Markakis (BAL), Hideki Matsui (NYY), Magglio Ordonez (DET), Corey Patterson (BAL), Juan Pierre (LAD), Manny Ramirez (BOS), Alexis Rios (TOR), Gary Sheffield (DET), Grady Sizemore (CLE), Alfonso Soriano (CHC), Ichiro Suzuki (SEA), Willy Taveras (COL), Vernon Wells (TOR), Delmon Young (TAM)

This Year’s top 4th Outfielders:

Group 1: The Base Stealers

Ranking the Candidates:
1.  Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds
Why he’s a good 4th OF: 3 straight seasons of 36+ SBs, starting CF job, good positional flexibility, showed some pop last season
Why he’s not a starter: low runs scored, very little RBI production, career .274 hitter with little pop, never a full-time starter

2.  Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants
Why he’s a good 4th OF: 40+ SB potential, hit .293 last season, low K rates, good walk rates, lack of HR power balanced out by triples
Why he’s not a starter: not a great run scorer, never topped 130 games in a season, very little power or RBIs, career .270 hitter

3. Scott Podsednik, Chicago White Sox
Why he’s a good 4th OF: good run scorer, dominant base stealer when healthy, has some pop when forced to use it, can hit for doubles and potential to lead league in SBs
Why he’s not a starter: hit 3 HRs in last two seasons, battling hamstring injury, strikes out often, only hit .261 last season

4. Chris Duffy, Pittsburgh Pirates
Why he’s a good 4th OF: good upside, can hit for AVG when healthy, stole 26 bases in half-season last year, efficient base stealer (28 for 31 in career attempts)
Why he’s not a starter: very little power, doesn’t hit for extra-base hits, battled injury last season, only hit .255 in 2006, draws very few walks, not great lineup behind him

5. Kenny Lofton, Texas Rangers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: 54 SBs over last two years, back-to-back .300+ seasons, 12 triples in ‘06, still scores runs and in a good lineup to do so
Why he’s not a starter: could split time with Marlon Byrd, very little upside, could fall off at age 39, injuries and at bats in question, no power

6. Nook Logan, Washington Nationals
Why he’s a good 4th OF: can easily be found off waiver wire, 33 career SBs in only 545 ABs, good speed and upside, low strikeout totals
Why he’s not a starter: may not be a fulltime starter, not much pop, very low walk rates, not a big run scorer, poor lineup, no track record

Value: The majority of the top-notch base stealers are usually below average producers in the ther major offensive categories, which makes them very suitable for 4th outfielder roles. Most can post a batting average that won’t hurt your lineup, will score some runs, and will get plenty of plate appearance due to sitting atop their lineups. They don’t offer much power production, but their speed can generate some value and they can be eased into the starting lineup if injuries strikes to offset readily found power, which most lineup have in excess.

Group 2: The Pure Power Hitters

Ranking the Candidates:
1. Josh Willingham, Florida Marlins
Why he’s a good 4th OF: good upside, hit 26 HRs in first year as starter, solid .277 AVG, still developing, consistent hitter, off-chance of regaining catcher eligibility
Why he’s not a starter: only drove in 74 runs and scored 62, very little speed, defense could be a liability and hurt playing time, not much protection in lineup

2. Craig Monroe, Detroit Tigers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: 3 seasons of 20 or more HR in last 4 years, career-high 28 HR last season, drove in 92 runs, modest run scorer, good doubles hitter
Why he’s not a starter: Strikes out way too often, little, inconsistent speed, .263 career hitter with very low OBP, for pure power needs to hit more HRs (18 in ‘04, 20 in ‘05) 

3. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles
Why he’s a good 4th OF: great track record, returning to division where he thrived and returns to hitters’ park, still has above-average power and will get ABs
Why he’s not a starter: HRs and RBIs have dropped four straight seasons, run-scoring abilities have decreased to below AVG, no speed, rapidly declining, low walks

4. Cliff Floyd, Chicago Cubs
Why he’s a good 4th OF: last full season hit 34 HRs and drove in 98, can still steal some bases, good power-hitting track record when healthy, draws walks, good lineup
Why he’s not a starter: arguably most injury-prone hitter in baseball, only .244 when healthy last season, could be platooned in LF, speed declining, runs scored an issue

5. Jonny Gomes, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Why he’s a good 4th OF: showed untapped power potential with scorching April numbers in 2006, draws walks, still young with upside and could rebound, modest speed
Why he’s not a starter: recovering from shoulder injury, hit .216 last season and will hit triple-digit striekout totals, doesn’t drive in enough runs for power, runs scored an issue

6. Marcus Thames, Detroit Tigers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: very good raw power, can hit for doubles, and has been spectacular in hot streaks, 1B experiment could give him added flexibility
Why he’s not a starter: playing time in question as team’s 4th OF, career .241 AVG is a huge liability, high K totals, low runs scored, 1 career SB, unlikely to start

Value: Pure power hitters do what they do best: hit HRs and rack up the indirect potential of RBIs and runs scored that come with each HR. Their AVGs are usually not pretty, they don’t steal many bases, and their upside is generally low, but because they can mash, they are a good bench filler and if they’re hitting HRs, they have starter value. Each HR is good for at least 1 RBI and 1 R as well, so when they’re on their power hot streaks, they’re capable starters with good trade value.

Group 3: The Glorified, Aging Veterans

Ranking the Candidates:
1. Moises Alou, New York Mets
Why he’s a good 4th OF: back-to-back .300+ seasons, career .301 hitter, still has 25/25 HR/DB power, draws good number of walks, enters one of best lineups in baseball
Why he’s not a starter: Only 221 games played in last two years, injuries a concern, takes a lot of days off to rest, runs scored rapidly decreasing, no speed, only average RBIs

2.Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants
Why he’s a good 4th OF: hit .292 post all-star break in 2006, still showed above-average power with 26 HRs in 367 ABs, ridiculously high walk rates, solid AVG
Why he’s not a starter: injuries, aging, and legal concerns all limit playing time and his knee is still a concern, power has noticeably dropped a bit, traditionally low RBI totals

3. Garret Anderson, Los Angeles Angels
Why he’s a good 4th OF: uncanny consistency, has never hit below .280 in 12 seasons, very good clutch hitter, good RBI totals, modest power, good safety valve, good lineup
Why he’s not a starter: no speed, below-average runs scored, power has decreased, AVG still solid but dropping, age and playing time could be concerns

4. Ken Griffey, Jr., Cincinnati Reds
Why he’s a good 4th OF: still shows very good power, good RBI production, lifetime .291 hitter, who hit .301 in last full season, skills still sharp when healthy, will add RF eligibility
Why he’s not a starter: sub-.265 AVG in four of last five seasons, has spent time on DL in each of last six seasons, very injury prone, SBs have completely diminished

5. Jim Edmonds, St. Louis Cardinals
Why he’s a good 4th OF: when healthy he still offers above-average HR and RBI totals, very good walk rates, modest runs scored when healthy, good doubles hitter
Why he’s not a starter: hindered by aging, HR, RBI, SB, R, AVG all have dropped each of last three years to average at best, still battling injuries, could lose some playing time

6. Luis Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: healthy with 316 hits since ‘05, hit 52 (!) doubles in ’06still has modest power, solid RBI totals, very impressive walk rates, still scores 90+ runs
Why he’s not a starter: will turn 40 at end of season, still relative injury risk, no speed or SB potential, power is average at best, hasn’t topped 80 RBIs since ‘03, low upside

Value: Established stars, while still risky as they enter the final stages of their career, offer you the comfort of having a hitter with a great track record on the bench and shoring up the depth chart. They usually still offer very good power, good number of at-bats and if they stay healthy, can still generate very good production. They may be power-specific and their speed may be on the decline, but they are the perfect comlement to risky, young OF starters.

Group 4: The Jacks of All Trades, Masters of None

Ranking the Candidates:
1. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: above-average mix of speed and power, hit 19 HRs and power is still developing, good walk rates, scored 90 runs, good source of DBs and TPR, modest SBs
Why he’s not a starter: led league in strikeouts last season, many holes in swing, may be overvalued after postseason success, won’t offer much more than league average power

2. Gary Matthews, Jr., Los Angeles Angels
Why he’s a good 4th OF: has always posted very solid DB & HR rates per AB, has double-digit SB speed, moves to hitters’ park, scored 100+ runs last season, modest walks
Why he’s not a starter: has never been starter quality before last season’s contract year, steroid and off-the-field issues could hurt playing time, production, low RBI totals

3. Preston Wilson, St. Louis Cardinals
Why he’s a good 4th OF: still capable of 20+ HRs, SB totals on the rise, good doubles hitter, slugging percentage always hovers around .500, still some upside
Why he’s not a starter: playing time in serious question, power on the decline, 15 SB max. potential, not a good source of runs or walks, average hitter at best since leaving Coors

4. Milton Bradley, Oakland A’s
Why he’s a good 4th OF: still has some untapped power potential, career average translates to 16 SBs for a full season, good doubles hitter, can offer plus AVG & OBP
Why he’s not a starter: off-the-field and character issues have limited production, could return to bench when Kotsay is healthy, has struggled with AVG as of late, weak lineup

5. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals
Why he’s a good 4th OF: lifetime .292 hitter with AVG rising in each of last three seasons, scored 83 runs and if lineup improves total could come near 100, good doubles hitter
Why he’s not a starter: HR & SB totals too low to offer much value, useless if he doesn’t hit at least .290, RBI totals will always be low as leadoff hitter, 50% career SB success

6. Aaron Rowand, Philadelphia Phillies
Why he’s a good 4th OF: solid mix of speed and power, hits in a solid lineup in hitters’ park and gets to face weak divisional pitching staffs, very good doubles hitter
Why he’s not a starter: HRs and SBs have both declined in each of last three years, could be traded and role is undefined, injury risks, high K and low walk rate, poor OBP

Value: These are the prototypical back-ups, they can fill in at numerous positions, can contribute a little to every category and make for ideal roster fillers. They can start in a pinch, offer modest versatile contributions and if they can excel in one particular area, they could force a platoon if a hitter is struggling. They may not give you jaw-dropping power or stolen bases, but they are often overlooked and offer more value than they are given credit for.

Group 5: The Overlooked, Low-Upside, Middle-Aged Veterans

Ranking the Candidates:
1. Jacque Jones, Chicago Cubs
Why he’s a good 4th OF: 23 or more HR in 4 of last 5 seasons, double-digit SB potential, consistent average-to-above-average runs and RBI totals, improved lineup around him
Why he’s not a starter: AVG can be a liability and fluctuates too often, tops out at 80 RBI potential, average SB totals at best, high K totals, could be traded, future is murky

2. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres
Why he’s a good 4th OF: still one of the best doubles hitters, triple-digit walk totals, above-average RBIs, has shown elite hitter capabilities, good side of steals, good run totals
Why he’s not a starter: pitchers’ park in pitchers’ division limits upside, could age rapidly at 36, power is below average and AVG is on sharp decline, OBP dropped 50 points in ‘063. Juan Encarnacion, St. Louis Cardinals
Why he’s a good 4th OF: three straight seasons of consistent modest HR, DB and RBI totals, still has some upside, AVG has gradually improved, offers safe, modest hitting
Why he’s not a starter: will start season on DL with wrist injury, could have ABs limited upon return, not a good source of runs, SBs have dropped and are below average

4. Emil Brown, Kansas City Royals
Why he’s a good 4th OF: back-to-back seasons of .286 and .287 AVG, has averaged 16 HRs and 84 RBIs since winning starting job, very consistent since ‘05, usually undrafted
Why he’s not a starter: emerging from obscurity still makes him risky and suceptible to sharp dropoff, poor lineup, could be squeezed for playing time by younger hitters

5. Randy Winn, San Francisco Giants
Why he’s a good 4th OF: capable of 20+ SB potential when healthy, good doubles hitter, slightly above-average run scorer, showed still starter-quality when on hot streak
Why he’s not a starter: below average power, RBI totals generally low and inconsistent, low walk rates, should score more runs based on tools, only hit .262 in ‘06

6. Geoff Jenkins, Milwaukee Brewers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: prior to last season, had three straight years of 25+ HRs/86+ RBIs, still a capable power source, good doubles hitter, can still have positive AVG
Why he’s not a starter: set to platoon with Mench in ‘07, power and runs scored sharply declined, AVG is inconsistent, no speed, very high strikeout rates, .434 SLG in ‘06

Value: As the protoypical safety valves, the overlooked, low-upside veterans offer good durability, experience, modest power, and a solid, cheap borderline-starter, when they’re hitting well. Veterans give you a good presence on the bench and make owners feel more comfortable about subbing in and out outfielders when one is struggling or hurt. Guys like these don’t offer much potential, but have proven to be capable starters but are often overlooked because of a lack of flash.

Group 6: The Up-and-Comers

Ranking the Candidates:
1. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: great size, power, athleticism, untapped power potential, can steal bases, great minor league track record, starting job intact, still available late in drafts
Why he’s not a starter: posted unimpressive run total in debut, low walk rates, large strike zone could result in high K totals, poor SB success rate, not enough DBs in ‘06

2. Chris Burke, Houston Astros
Why he’s a good 4th OF: has double-digit HR potential, underrated speed and base stealer, potential for double-digit runs atop lineup, hits in hitters’ park, modest DBs
Why he’s not a starter: career .258 AVG, very low walk rates, needs to prove he can handle full-season workload, average power at best, RBIs could be an issue

3. Luke Scott, Houston Astros
Why he’s a good 4th OF: hit .336 /.426/.622 in major league debut, established minor league hitter, very good K/BB rate, in his prime, above-average power, will get ABs
Why he’s not a starter: low upside and possibility of sharp dropoff second go-around, very little speed, won’t score a ton of runs, averaged 107 K had he played full-season in ‘06

4. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies
Why he’s a good 4th OF: solid contact hitter with leadoff capabilities, blazing speed, good triples hitter, solid run scorer, good situation to develop as hitter in solid lineup
Why he’s not a starter: could have short leash as starter, speed has yet to translate into high SB totals, very low basement and may not be starter-quality, below-average power

5. Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: former top prospect who has shown 20/15 potential, hit .308 in ML debut last season, just above-average run scored and RBI producer, good upside
Why he’s not a starter: may struggle in severe pitchers’ park, low success rate as base stealer, 2/1 K/BB rate needs to improve, numbers dropped as season progressed

6. Chris Duncan, St. Louis Cardinals
Why he’s a good 4th OF: has 30 HR potential, draws decent number of walks, hit .293 last season, handled pressure well, will get ABs, low speed but can still post good runs scored
Why he’s not a starter: nothing in track record shows he is capable of hitting anywhere near .293 again, high K rates, old-player skills, could be platooned, no steals

Value: Too risky to be starters and too much potential to be mired on the bench, up-and-comers give you great upside at a low price and instant startability if they can continue their successful development. They’re still available in the latter stages of the draft, are entering their primes, are very enticing trade commodities, provide good youth, and are arguably the best price-to-production gorup of fourth outfielders in 2007. They usually have some fleixibility as they discover their niches and should develop more power with added playing time.

Group 7: The Prospects

Ranking the Candidates:
1. Chris B. Young, Arizona Diamondbacks
Why he’s a good 4th OF: Locked in as starting CF, very toolsy, has 20/20 potential, hitters’ park, should be solid all-around producer and good run scorer in improved lineup
Why he’s not a starter: Could struggle with AVG as seen by .243 in 70 ABs last season, never a dominant minor league hitter, average power at best, not great source of doubles

2. Lastings Milledge, New York Mets
Why he’s a good 4th OF: hot spring could win him starting job, blazing speed, raw power and developing offensive tools, great lineup surrounding him, good potential for runs
Why he’s not a starter: struggled mightily in ‘06, will start season on bench, power in question, character issues could force a trade, speed has yet to translate to high SBs

3. Jeremy Hermida, Florida Marlins
Why he’s a good 4th OF: one of the best minor league hitters and top prospect in past five years, untapped potential, good size and athleticism, good doubles hitter, 30 HR potential
Why he’s not a starter: he’ll start season on DL and has been injury prone in young career, playing time in question, .256 career major league hitter, not much speed

4. Carlos Quentin, Arizona Diamondbacks
Why he’s a good 4th OF: bulky, strong power hitter who can fill spot in heart of the lineup, plays in hitters’ park, showed ability to shred pitching upon MLB arrival, decent walk rate
Why he’s not a starter: will start season on DL and could battle with shoulder injury, cooled off after hot start and only hit .253 in ‘06, high K totals, very little speed

5. Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays
Why he’s a good 4th OF: has hit well at every level, good power lefty with above-average batting eye, good position flexibility, only Reed Johnson stands in way of starting job
Why he’s not a starter: will start season in minors, never has possessed remote speed, could struggle to get playing time on stacked roster, could still use some seasoning

6. Adam Jones, Seattle Mariners
Why he’s a good 4th OF: very good speed, former blue-chip prospect with untapped potential, could offer good flexibility and production as all-around back-up on M’s
Why he’s not a starter: struggled with hitting consistently and figuring out major league pitching, weak lineup, could be pressed for ABs, still very raw, average power at best

Value: Their value is purely in their upside and their instant value should they inherit a starting job. They’re toolsy, they offer very good flashy production, can provide a spark off the bench by getting off to a hot start, and can usually swipe a bag at a steady rate. Prospects are usually very low risk, high upside options and while they are risky as a 4th outfielder in that they may be forced to start on your squad without actually having a starting job, they complement aging veterans very well.

Group 8: The Undrafted, Playing-time-in-question, Deep Sleepers

Ranking the Candidates:
1. David Dellucci, Cleveland Indians
Why he’s a good 4th OF: can hit for average in smaller workloads and has shown 25+ HR potential in larger roles, will get good number of ABs in a very good lineup, some speed
Why he’s not a starter: terrible doubles hitter, low upside and best suited as a MLB team’s 4th OF, high K rate, inconsistent walks and runs scored, below-average RBIs

2. Jason Kubel, Minnesota Twins
Why he’s a good 4th OF: established minor leaguer hitter who could develop some serious pop, can focus on hitting as DH, entering prime years, could post Cuddyer-like numbers
Why he’s not a starter: struggled adjusting to ML-pitching with .241 AVG and .279 OBP, below-average strikeout rate, low walk totals, not great source of runs, low SBs

3. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs
Why he’s a good 4th OF: has translated very well as major league hitter and has shown starter capability, developing above-average power, decent speed, very good walk rate
Why he’s not a starter: will platoon with Cliff Floyd to start season and could be limited as a bench player, won’t steal double-digit bases, average runs and RBIs as ceiling

4. Ryan Church, Washington Nationals
Why he’s a good 4th OF: can handle all three OF spots, good size and power, still a toolsy offensive option, some speed, has shown flashes of brilliance, decent walks totals
Why he’s not a starter: struggled with injury, poor lineup, plays in severe pitchers’ park, could be platooned with Chris Snelling, high strikeouts hurt AVG, low runs scored

5. Terrmel Sledge, San Diego Padres
Why he’s a good 4th OF: hit 6 HRs in ST, shown very good power potential, can draw walks, average doubles hitter who could take advantage of large PETCO gaps, starting job
Why he’s not a starter: lifetime .261 MLB hitter with high K totals and not much potential for higher average, low runs and very low SB totals, could struggle with RBIs, already 30

6. Melky Cabrera, New York Yankees
Why he’s a good 4th OF: showed capable of starting on even a quality team, handled pressure well, good flexibility, good all-around tools, above-average speed, draws walks
Why he’s not a starter: slated as 4th outfielder and will struggle to get ABs, below-average power, could have reached ceiling in ‘06, not much more upside

Value: With playing time in question, it’s hard to offer much value as the next-in-line starter, but their value lies in being able to put good peripherals and modest production in small stints. Also, since they can usually be plucked off the waiver wire, they allow you to focus on other needs, have very little risk, and are usually one injury away from stepping into the limelight and being a very tradeable commodity.

The Top 10 uncategorized fourth outfield candidates

Ranking the Candidates:
1. Jose Guillen, Seattle Mariners
Why he’s a good 4th OF: above-average power, still in peak years, got much-needed change of scenery, good doubles hitter, good source of runs when healthy
Why he’s not a starter: hit .216 last season, still fighting fluke tag and very risky, character issues have caused adverse effects, very low walk rates, generally low RBIs

2. Juan Rivera, Los Angeles Angels
Why he’s a good 4th OF: hit .310-23-85 in ‘06 despite inconsistent playing time, can be a consistent .300 hitter, low K totals, good doubles hitter, starter-quality upside
Why he’s not a starter: broke his leg in winter ball and could miss most of ‘07, even when he returns playing time in jeopardy, below-average speed, not good source of runs

3. Xavier Nady, Pittsburgh Pirates
Why he’s a good 4th OF: good pedigree, hit .300 upon arriving in Pittsburgh, late bloomer who has gradually refined his tools, starter-capable during hot streaks, modest pop
Why he’s not a starter: still improving, but his ceiling is significantly lower than as a prospect, tops out at 20 HR potential, terrible walk rate, low runs scored and speed

4. Reed Johnson, Toronto Blue Jays
Why he’s a good 4th OF: all-around modest producer with double-digit HR power, hit .319 in ‘06, good doubles hitter, very underrated and overlooked, good lineup
Why he’s not a starter: played over his head in ‘06, high BABIP indicate dropoff in AVG expected, tops out at 10-12 SB potential, low RBI totals, could be on short leash

5. Shawn Green, New York Mets
Why he’s a good 4th OF: still possesses some pop, enough speed to score decent runs and steal a few bases, in a great lineup, good track record, young enough to rebound
Why he’s not a starter: HRs and RBIs have dropped three straight years, speed rapidly declining, inconsistent AVG as of late, hit .257 as a Met, could lose starting job

6. Wily Mo Pena, Boston Red Sox
Why he’s a good 4th OF: capable of monster power production, good outfield flexibility, showed improvement as a hitter in AL, posted .301 AVG last season, still in prime
Why he’s not a starter: terrible walk rates, very high strikeout totals, on the bench behind quality starters, very little speed, doesn’t drive in or score enough runs to match power

7. Shannon Stewart, Oakland A’s
Why he’s a good 4th OF: career .299 hitter, who hit .293 in ‘06, decent speed on basepaths, low strikeout totals, could score good number of runs if healthy
Why he’s not a starter: battling injury and decreasing effectiveness as hitter, below average power and declining speed, could be useless if he doesn’t hit .300, poor lineup

8. Rob Mackowiak, Chicago White Sox
Why he’s a good 4th OF: can hit for average in smaller stints, hit .290 in ‘06, has modest speed and can steal some bases, good flexibility, decent pop, occasional hot streak
Why he’s not a starter: considered more of a utility player than a starter, struggles with AVG in large workloads, high strikeout totals, low runs and RBIs, should hit more doubles

9. Jay Gibbons, Baltimore Orioles
Why he’s a good 4th OF: back-to-back seasons of .277 show improved batting eye and modest consistency, still has good power potential, hitters’ park and improved lineup
Why he’s not a starter: low walk rates, never a good source of runs, very low RBI totals compared to HRs hit, no speed, constant injury concerns, could be platooned

10. Kevin Mench, Milwaukee Brewers
Why he’s a good 4th OF: can single-handedly win you a week during his annual hot streak, has tremendous power, surprisingly low strikeout rates, decent doubles hitter
Why he’s not a starter: in a platoon in ‘07, has struggled outside of Arlington, AVG fluctuates and could be a liability, inconsistent, susceptible to long cold spells, low runs

Last minute addition:

Elijah Dukes, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Why he’s a good 4th OF: announced opening day CF starter, he’s very toolsy, can hit for .300, has raw power, good speed, overmatched minor league pitching
Why he’s not a starter: starting job is temporary and likely platoon at DH when Baldelli can return to CF, character issues, still raw, could struggle against big-league pitching

Ranking the Fourth Outfield Options for 2007:

-Note: these rankings are not based solely on production potential, but as well as playing time, injury risk, and value compared to draft position and waiver wire availability.

1. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers
2. Chris B. Young, Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Moises Alou, New York Mets
4. Jacque Jones, Chicago Cubs
5. Josh Willingham, Florida Marlins
6. Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds
7. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres
8. Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants
9. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers
10. Chris Burke, Houston Astros
11. Luke Scott, Houston Astros
12. Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants
13. Gary Matthews, Jr., Los Angeles Angels
14. Garret Anderson, Los Angeles Angels
15. David Dellucci, Cleveland Indians
16. Craig Monroe, Detroit Tigers
17. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles
18. Jason Kubel, Minnesota Twins
19. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs
20. Jose Guillen, Seattle Mariners
21. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies
22. Scott Podsednik, Chicago White Sox
23. Ken Griffey, Jr., Cincinnati Reds
24. Cliff Floyd, Chicago Cubs
25. Lastings Milledge, New York Mets
26. Juan Encarnacion, St. Louis Cardinals
27. Chris Duffy, Pittsbirgh Pirates
28. Jeremy Hermida, Florida Marlins
29. Juan Rivera, Los Angeles Angels
30. Elijah Dukes, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
31. Preston Wilson, St. Louis Cardinals
32. Milton Bradley, Oakland A’s
33. Andre Etheir, Los Angeles Dodgers
34. Carlos Quentin, Arizona Diamondbacks
35. Jim Edmonds, St. Louis Cardinals
36. Chris Duncan, St. Louis Cardinals
37. Xavier Nady, Pittsburgh Pirates
38. Reed Johnson, Toronto Blue Jays
39. Jonny Gomes, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
40. Emil Brown, Kansas City Royals
41. Randy Winn, San Francisco Giants
42. Ryan Church, Washington Nationals
43. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals
44. Terrmel Sledge, San Diego Padres
45. Kenny Lofton, Texas Rangers
46. Melky Cabrera, New York Yankees
47. Luis Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers
48. Aaron Rowand, Philadelphia Phillies
49. Shawn Green, New York Mets
50. Nook Logan, Washington Nationals
51. Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays
52. Geoff Jenkins, Milwaukee Brewers
53. Wily Mo Pena, Boston Red Sox
54. Marcus Thames, Detroit Tigers
55. Adam Jones, Seattle Mariners
56. Shannon Stewart, Oakland A’s
57. Rob Mackowiak, Chicago White Sox
58. Jay Gibbons, Baltimore Orioles
59. Kevin Mench, Milwaukee Brewers
60. Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers

Non-Roster Invitee Report: American League

Last week I posted the National League’s most intriguing NRIs with ratings for potential playing time and fantasy impact upon receiving said playing time. This weekend I’ll polish off the NRI reports with some very intriguing AL NRIs, some of which are actually battling for starting jobs and rotation spots. Without further adieu:

Baltimore Orioles

1) J.R. House, C (6.5/5.0)
2) Jon Knott, 1B/OF (5.0/4.5)
3) Rob Bell, SP (5.5/3.5)
4) Terry Tiffee, 3B (4.0/3.5)
5) Roger Cedeno, OF (4.0/3.0)
6) Brandon Sing (3.0/3.5)

A two-star athlete and a former prospect with plus-power and a cannon for an arm at catcher, J.R. House, looks to finally meet his potential as a 27-year old, with a long history of injury, but still very good upside, as indicated by his .412 AVG in AAA last year. Rob Bell was a servicable fifth starter from 2000-04, and could stick on a bad club with good run support if given another opportunity. He’s struggled at all levels as of late, but has good control and durability. Terry Tiffee was considered an above-average prospect for the Twins and showed some pop in a few cups of coffee; he’s low-upside, but he is a cheap, young corner infield backup option.

Boston Red Sox

1) Runelvys Hernandez, SP (5.5/5.5)
2) Adam Bernero, SP (6.5/4.0)
3) Joe McEwing, UTIL (5.0/3.5)
4) Bryan Corey, RP (5.0/3.0)
5) Alex Ochoa, OF (3.5/2.5)
6) Kevin Cash, C (3.0/2.0)

Runelvys Hernandez was never a top prospect and has likely been living off a very impressive ML debut and a cool name, but despite some conditioning issues, arm-related injuries, and terribly-low strikeout totals, he could find a niche. The Red Sox could use a fifth starter to eat innings and Runelvys could be a cheap, experienced option. Joe McEwing, a super utility guy/25th man for years has bounced around the minors, but still has enough of a bat to stick on a club who could use some help up the middle of the infield. Alex Ochoa, who hasn’t played in the majors since 2002, hit well in Japan, and hopes to revive his career as a 5th outfielder at age 35.

Chicago White Sox

1) Lance Broadway, SP (5.5/6.5)
2) John Danks, SP (5.0/6.0)
3) Eduardo Perez, 1B/OF (5.5/4.5)
4) Wiki Gonzalez, C (4.0/3.5)
5) Junior Spivey, 2B (4.0/3.0)
6) Vladimir Nunez, RP (3.0/2.5)

Gavin Floyd is penciled in as the fifth starter, but Lance Broadway and John Danks will give him a run for his money. Broadway dominated AA last season, but still needs some refinement. Danks, a tad older and more experienced, has been mediocre in higher levels of the minors, but has more control and is less risky than Floyd, and could have an instant impact as a back-end starter. Eduardo Perez is a good veteran presence, and although he’s a little shaky in the field, he can fill in at any corner position and still has some pop in his bat. Vladimir Nunez, the Marlins’ closer in 2002, has since imploded and has battled back through the minors, and is still young enough to get another shot.

Cleveland Indians

1) Adam Miller, SP (5.5/8.5)
2) Keith Ginter, 2B (5.5/4.5)
3) Cliff Politte, RP (6.0/4.0)
4) Jason Stanford, SP (5.0/3.5)
5) Luis Rivas, 2B (3.5/3.0)
6) Javi Herrera, C (3.0/2.5)

Adam Miller, the Indians #1 prospect, who has dominated through the minors and was perfect in spring training, not allowing a single run. He’s got great upside and a very good repetoire of pitches, he’s ML ready, but he’ll start in AAA and will wait in the wings for an opening in the rotation. Keith Ginter was considered a viable starter at 2B after a 19-60-.262 campaign in ‘04, but struggled mightily in ‘05, and rebuilt his skills in the minors in ‘06.  Cliff Politte, a former closer, put up a remarkable 2005 campaign, but imploded in 2006 before getting cut by the White Sox. With a weak bullpen that could use an effective veteran arm, if Politte does well in AAA, he should get a call-up.
Detroit Tigers

1) Craig Dingman, RP (6.5/4.0)
2) Joey Eischen, RP (5.5/4.0)
3) Brandon Watson, OF (4.5/3.5)
4) David Espinosa,SS/OF (4.0/4.0)
5) Felix Heredia, RP (4.5/3.0)
6) Timo Perez, OF (4.0/3.0)
7) Dane Sardinha, C (3.0/2.5)

Craig Dingman was a former Yankees prospect who bounced around as a long reliever in the minors and even Mexico, but finally put it together in 2005 with a 3.66 ERA in 34 relief appearance before missing all of 2006, but is expected to be healthy this season. With a potential opening for a mop-up role in the pen, besides Dingman, 37-year old Joey Eischen, who pitched in the majors in mid-90’s, before returning in 2001, and posted four straight sub-4.00 ERA seasons before arm injuries and ineffectiveness resulted in a woeful 2006, could be in the mix, as well. David Espinosa is a former 1st round pick by the Reds, who has converted from shortstop to outfield and looked like a solid rule V draft pick, but stuck with the Tigers and could be in the mix for a 5th outfield spot, along with the speedy, light-hitting Brandon Watson.

Kansas City Royals

1) Brandon Duckworth, SP (6.0/4.5)
2) Zach Day, SP (5.5/4.5)
3) Alex S. Gonzalez, SS (6.0/4.0)
4) Graham Koonce, 1B (4.5/4.5)
5) Jorge Padilla, OF (4.5/4.0)
6) Jason Standridge, RP (5.0/3.5)
7) Wayne Franklin, RP (4.5/3.0)
8) Dewon Brazelton, SP (4.0/3.0)
9) Adam Greenberg, OF (3.0/2.5)

Like the Nationals in the NL, the arguably-worst team in the league, the Royals have the deepest, most-intriguing set of NRIs. Brandon Duckworth, now 31, has been a servicable 5th starter, who could be a below-average innings-filler and pitch in with some long relief. With a weak bullpen, he could have some value as a spot-starter, long-reliever and could even crack the rotation. Zach Day, a former top prospect, had some good years as a finesse pitcher before some arm injuries and Coors Field took a toll on him, but he’s young and talented enough to rebound. Graham Koonce is an all-power, low-AVG, high-K minor league veteran masher, who could have a solid Bucky Jacobsen-esque stint if the Royals take a flier for a cheap DH option. Dewon Brazelton has been given ample opportunities but has pitched poorly in every aspect after being the #3 overall pick in 2001, and his only hope now may be as a middle reliever.

Los Angeles Angels

1) Matt Wilhite, RP (5.0/4.5)
2) Sean Rodriguez, SS (4.0/6.0)
3) Curtis Pride, OF (6.0/3.0)
4) Chris Bootcheck, RP (4.0/3.0)
5) Nathan Haynes, OF (3.5/3.0)

Matt Wilhite, who was slightly too old to have great upside, put up some very solid numbers in AAA as a 25-year old sidearmer who can pitch multiple innings in late relief, but his value comes from his pick-off move that has resulted in over 30 pick offs at second base. He’s a very intriguing arm, who could find a spot in the pen, and would have overwhelming value in a zany league with pickoffs as a stat. Sean Rodriguez is a very good hitting shortstop prospect, but will be blocked off by Brandon Wood and Orlando Cabrera, should he be able to play OF or 3B, he could get called up earlier than expected. Curtis Pride, the only active deaf major leaguer, has stuck around baseball for almost 20 years and has continually gotten cups of coffee late in the season as a back-up OF.

Minnesota Twins

1) Ken Harvey, 1B/DH (5.0/4.5)
2) Randy Choate, RP (5.5/3.5)
3) Sidney Ponson, SP (5.0/3.5)
4) Matt LeCroy, 1B/C (4.5/3.5)
5) Glenn Williams, 3B (4.0/4.0)
6) Josh Rabe, OF (4.0/3.5)
7) Mike Venafro, RP (3.5/3.0)

Ken Harvey, a 2004 Al-star, is a stocky 6′2” 240 masher, in the mold of the aforementioned Graham Koonce, who could have value as a cheap DH option. Unlike Koonce, he can draw a walk and even post a moderate average, but with below average speed and health issues, he has some risks. Sidney Ponson has bounced around, getting rocked as a starter for various teams, but the Twins are still willing to give him a shot. He’s now 30 years old, poorly conditioned and gives up too many hits, but is the only option with prior fantasy value and still a good fastball; with the lack of arms in the rotation, getting a call up would not be a surprise. Matt LeCroy has some pop and is a former Twin, but he’s a liability at catcher defensively; Glenn Williams has hit well in the minors, and the former undrafted Australian could be a cheap, effective left-side infield utility hitter with modest pop.

New York Yankees

1) Philip Hughes, SP (4.5/8.0)
2) Ron Villone, RP (5.5/4.0)
3) Ben Davis, C (4.5/4.0)
4) Todd Pratt, C (4.5/4.0)
5) Chris Basak, INF (4.0/3.5)
6) Matt DeSalvo, SP (3.5/3.0)
7) Raul Chavez, C (3.5/3.0)
8) Ben Kozlowski, SP (3.0/2.5)

Philip Hughes is arguably the top-rated pitching prospect in all of baseball, with phenomenal size and velocity, good strikeout rates, and good performances in the minors; with injuries striking the rotation and the intrigue surrounding him, he could get a call-up by midseason. Ron Villone is still a capable long-reliever, mop-up man, but may be passed up by younger options. Todd Pratt, a veteran with good pop and an experienced back-up, Ben Davis, a former top prospect whose hitting has gradually deteriorated, and Raul Chavez, a low-upside 33-year old with a modest bat and good defense, could all be in the mix for a back-up catcher job who could get a decent number of at-bats.

Oakland A’s

1) Daric Barton, 1B (5.5/7.0)
2) Erasmo Ramirez, RP (5.0/4.0)
3) John Baker, C (4.5/4.0)
4) Hiram Bocachica, OF (4.5/3.5)
5) Ricky Ledee, OF (4.5/3.0)
6) Erubiel Durazo, 1B/DH (4.0/3.5)
7) Charles Thomas, OF (4.0/3.0)
8) Kazuhito Tadano, RP (3.5/3.0)
9) Lou Merloni, UTIL (4.0/2.5)

Daric Barton is recovering from injury and didn’t look great in a short stint in AAA last season, but he’s got great upside, plenty of offensive tools, a good eye, and nice power. He’ll need some time in the minors, but could develop quickly and take over at 1B by season’s end. John Baker has revived his bat at AAA, offers good average with some pop, and with Jason Kendall a FA at the end of the season,could get some time in as he auditions for a starting job next season. Hiram Bocachica, a dominant AAA hitter but useless in the majors, along with career 4th outfielder Ricky Ledee (who was dreadful last season, but still useful as a pinch-hitter), and Charles Thomas, who despite being solely remembered for a hot streak in 2004, is still hitting well in AAA, could all see time with a thin outfield corps.

Seattle Mariners

1) Arthur Rhodes, RP (6.0/4.0)
2) Justin Lehr, RP (4.5/4.0)
3) Sean Burroughs, 3B (4.0/3.5)
4) Jaime Cerda, RP (4.5/3.0)
5) Jesse Foppert, SP (3.5/4.5)
6) Gookie Dawkins, INF (4.0/3.0)
7) Aaron Small, RP (4.0/3.0)
8) Rey Ordonez, SS (2.5/2.0)

Arthur Rhodes, now 37, struggled as a set-up man in Philly last season, but returns to Seattle, where he was an elite midle reliever with some fantasy value in the late 90’s/early 00’s. He still averaged over 1 K/IP last season, and with a shortage of experience in the pen, he could return as the team’s set-up man this season. Justin Lehr, a former AAA closer with good velocity, as well as former Met relief prospect and servicable Quadruple-A’er arm, Jaime Cerda, could also stick in the pen. Sean Burroughs, a top 10 pick in 1998, has never had enough power or speed to make it at 3B, but as a .280 lifetime hitter, if he can handle a middle infield spot, he could revive his career as a utility guy.

Tampa Bay Devilrays

1) Gary Glover, SP
2) Carlos Pena, 1B
3) Steve Andrade, RP
4) Hee Seop Choi, 1B/OF
5) Shinji Mori, RP
6) Dustan Mohr, OF
7) Jason Grabowski, UTIL
8) Yamid Haad, C

Gary Glover is a perfect utility pitcher, who can spot-starter, handle long relief, and even close out games in a pinch if needed. With a jumbled rotation and a complete lack of a bullpen, he could certainly find a niche on this staff. He’s had a strong spring, has good experience, and a decent mix of pitches. With Ty Wigginton, the only viable first baseman, two former top power prospects, Carlos Pena and Hee Seop Choi could work their way onto the roster. Both have good pop, good minor league track records, but don’t hit for average and strike out way too often. Shinji Mori was an average reliever in Japan, but posted very good K rates, and despite coming off arm injury and never pitching professionally in America yet, he’s could be a sleeper closer candidate if he rehabs well.

Texas Rangers

1) Sammy Sosa, OF (7.5/5.5)
2) Jamey Wright, SP (6.5/5.0)
3) Mike Wood, RP (5.0/4.5)
4) Jerry Hairston, Jr., UTIL (4.5/4.5)
5) Willie Eyre, RP (4.5/3.5)
6) Bruce Chen, SP (4.0/3.5)
7) Franklyn German, RP (4.0/3.5)
8) Matt Kata, 2B (3.5/3.0)
9) Jared Sandberg, 3B (3.0/3.0)
10) Desi Relaford, INF (2.5/2.5)

Everyone knows Sammy Sosa’s story, as he returns to the majors for the first time since hitting 14 HRs and .221 for the Orioles in 2005. He’s lit up pitching with 4 HRs this spring and looks to be in line for the DH job on a loaded lineup in a hitter’s park. He’s pushing for 600 career HRs, and if he stays healthy, he should have enough pop to reach it, but his AVG could be a liability. Veteran below-average, inning eaters, Bruce Chen and Jamey Wright are both serious contenders for the #5 spot, but both have very limited value. A spot in the bullpen is also open and former top prospect Mike Wood, who finally put it together before injuries struck, is a good long relief option with some upside, but could have to fend off Willie Eyre (Scott’s younger brother), who spent all of last season as a servicable mop-up man in the best bullpen in baseball for the Twins last season.

Toronto Blue Jays

1) Victor Zambrano, SP (7.0/5.5)
2) Matt Stairs, OF (6.0/4.0)
3) Kevin Barker, 1B (4.5/4.0)
4) John-Ford Griffin, OF (4.0/4.0)
5) Jeremi Gonzalez, RP (4.5/3.5)
6) Sal Fasano, C (4.5/3.5)
7) Rainer Olmedo, INF (4.0/3.0)
8) Jeff Duncan, OF (3.0/3.0)
9) Jo Matumoto, RP (3.0/3.0)

Victor Zambrano, the Devil Rays former ace and Mets middle-rotation, wild-armed starter, is coming off Tommy John surgery, but has rehabbed rapidly and could be in the rotation come Opening Day. His velocity is still down, but he’s added some movement, worked on his command, is still young and doesn’t have much mileage, and could be a very enticing sleeper. Matt Stairs is a 37-year old DH/4th OF option, who still showed good pop and veteran skills, but doesn’t drive or score runs and his average as well as his playing time are liabilities, and may not start the season in the majors for the first time in nearly a decade. Kevin Barker, a career minor league masher, is a tempting 1B back-up option, but he has a below-average glove, strikes out too often, and has struggled in his ML stints. Jo Matumoto is a 36-year old reliever and the first ever Brazilian pitcher in baseball, but even as an unknown, unfamiliarized commodity, he doesn’t have much velocity and is far too old to be expected to be anything more than a feel-good story.

Something to Prove

You would think, considering second base is considered the most shallow, least talented fantasy position this season, that there would be no pressure on this year’s class. Wrong. As talent-lacking as the position appears to be this offseason, there are numerous second basemen around the league who will need to prove they can maintain or improve their 2006 production, or the position could really become a serious liability for fantasy owners. There are a good number of mid-level second basemen that aren’t getting the credit they’re due, but should these top-tier second basemen with chips on their shoulder for various reasons in 2007, not meet expectations, the mid-tier options could push elite status at the position. Here are top second base candidates with something to prove in 2007:

1. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins
2006 Season: 105 R, 27 HR, 90 RBI, 6 SB, .282

Uggla entered 2006 as a 26-year old, low-ceiling, rule V draft pick battling for a roster spot. He stuck it out, landed the job at second, and never looked back, posting good all-around production, including 60 extra-base hits. Uggla, now 27, is in the prime of his career, and while he was always an above-average minor league hitter, he was always significantly older than his competition. His 2006 is likely as good as it’ll ever get, though it not bad at all, but his track record doesn’t indicate an ability to constantly produce at that level. He cooled off in the second half with a .256 AVG, 1 SB, and a 3:1 K:BB rate and the pressure will be on to prove that he’s more than just a half-season, over-aged prospect flash-in-the-pan and is a legitimate 20 HR, .280 hitter and can be a mid-level starter for years to come at second base.

2. Ray Durham, Giants
2006 Season: 79 R, 26 HR, 93 RBI, 7 SB, .293

Durham was always a very modest all-around fantasy contributor with decent pop and good speed, but when a guy of any caliber posts far-and-away the best single-season HR and RBI totals of his career at age 34, there will always be something to prove. Durham was on a steady downward slope as a former all-star turned league-average second baseman and prior to last season, looked like he might be best suited in a Craig Biggio platoon-esque role. After 26 HRs and a solid .293 AVG, he certainly revived his career, but can he maintain his form now that he’s no longer in a contract year and got his big payday? He’ll be hard-pressed to match those power numbers again in 2007, but should he come close and maintain a respectable average, he could stave off the notion that his career is nearing an end.

3. Robinson Cano, Yankees
2006 Season: 62 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 5 SB, .342

No one contributed more offensively down the stretch to the Yankees’ banged-up, makeshift offense than Cano. No one is expected to post .365-11-51 in a third of a season like Cano did in 53 post-all-star break games, so Cano doesn’t need to prove himself by duplicating his 2006 performance but by continuing to hit notably higher than league-average at 2B and maintain his place atop the AL rankings at the position. Cano is a high-level prospect with untapped power, great contact-hitting abilities, and the ability to shred all comes when he’s on his game, but he’s underrated and under-appreciated in the talent-laden Yankees all-star offense. Cano has put together two very good seasons as a pro, but he’ll need to prove that he’s more than just a role player on a great offense and worthy of the #1 AL 2B label with a healthy, productive campaign.

4. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
2006 Season: 78 R, 13 HR, 74 RBI, 4 SB, .296 AVG

Like Ray Durham, but without half the offensive track record, DeRosa put up career-bests across the board in a 2006 contract year. At age 31, he’s spent nearly his entire career as a utility man, but got another opportunity to crack a starting lineup with the Rangers last season and took advantage of it with timely hitting and all-around flexibility in the field. Now, after four months as a capable starting bat, he earned a fairly-sized contract and a starting job on a rebuilding Cubs unit. He cooled off, hitting .200 from September 1st on last season and has struggled in larger doses in the past. He’ll need to prove he’s more than just a utility hitter who was masquerading as a starter for a couple of months to get a big payday by at least extrapolating his post-all-star break numbers of 9-45-.265 for the Cubs in 2007, since he will be one of the most scrutinized players should Chicago falter out the gate.

5. Jose Valentin, Mets
2006 Season: 56 R, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 6 SB, .271

Valentin was a NRI signed to a minor-league deal last Spring Training before he stuck with the club and eventually usurped no-hit, all-field prospect, Anderson Hernandez. Valentin, a 35-year old hitter coming off a .170 AVG campaign entering 2006, looked like he was on the verge of a coaching gig or retirement more so than a starting job in the field. He shocked many by not only starting, but holding his own and giving the bottom of the Mets lineup some stability. He posted his best season AVG since 2000 combined with modest power and he was even worth starting in some leagues. He got a modest two-year deal to comeback as the Mets’ starter, but he’ll have his work cut for him to prove that he’s still a starter-worthy option in fantasy baseball, whether or not he can start a full season without being a liability, and whether he can continue to stave off retirement.

6. Brandon Phillips, Reds
2006 Season: 65 R, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 25 SB, .276

A former top-10 MLB prospect, Phillips tore up the lower levels of the minors before wearing out his welcome in two organizations, while struggling mightily with both the bat and glove in AAA and extended MLB stints. He bounced around the Indians organization and just didn’t have a role in the team’s future. Bordering on potential minor-league journeyman, quadruple-A’er status, the former prospect revived his potential and career with a stellar showing for the Reds. He made Felipe Lopez expendable and held his own for the rest of the season. He showed more pop that was ever expected of him and stole 25 bases in a mere 27 attempts. Now that pitchers are familiar with him and who he is, he’ll be out to prove that he was worthy of his former top prospect status, that he can be an elite base-stealer, and that his bat is good enough to carry his glove and not to return to Quadruple-A’er status in 2007.

7. Jorge Cantu, Devil Rays
2006 Season: 40 R, 14 HR, 62 RBI, 1 SB, .249

Similarly to Dan Uggla, Cantu was an organizational soldier, who hit well in the minors without making scouts drool nor projecting well as a major league starter. Also like Uggla, Cantu tore it up in his first full season as a starter, hitting 28-117-.286 and getting nabbed as a top 5 2B in 2006. When he followed it up with an injury-marred, subpar offensive campaign, it was easy for some to label him as a fluke or a commodity that had been figured out, but Cantu showed enough upside in 2005 to still have some believers. Last season can be written off as a mulligan if he can return to a fantasy starter-quality level of play, but he’ll have to prove himself as more than a future utility man on a good team with a bounce-back year in 2007.

8. Marcus Giles, Padres
2006 Season: 87 R, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 10 SB, .261

It was only 2003 B.U. (before Utley), when Giles was considered the best up-and-coming second baseman in all of baseball, possessing legitimate 25/25 potential, with a good bat, and the ability to score a ton of runs. Since his 24-year old 101-21-69-.316-14 season, he has gradually regressed to an inconsistent 10/10 hitter, whose average has dropped in each of the last four seasons, hitting an uninspiring .262 low last year. Now, at age 28, after still showing good tools but less-than-impressive results, he was shipped out of Atlanta, viewed as a potential scapegoat, and reunites with his brother in San Diego. Giles is entering a contract year and if he ever wants to re-emerge as an elite 2B with top ten potential and a savory skill set, he needs to rebound with a big year in 2007. He should utilize the big gaps and master Petco as a doubles-hitter, but should he not, he’ll have a hard time proving he’s anything more than a #7-#8 hitter, with modest pop and speed, and an all-around average starter, as opposed to the top-tier player his potential offers.

9. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
2006 Season: 73 R, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 19 SB, .279

The second overall pick in 2003, Weeks was a highly-polished college hitter expected to make an immediate impact and man second base for years to come. In two full seasons since being drafted, Weeks has spent nearly half the time battling injury on the DL, while posting an unimpressive .257 AVG with a 3:1 K:BB rate. Weeks wasn’t nearly as polished as expected, even struggling in AAA, and while he’s still raw, the tools are still there. The Brewers are expected to contend in a weak division this year and Weeks is expected to play an integral role in the process. At age 24, entering his third full season, the time is now for Weeks and all excuses have been used up. A failure to produce better as a hitter and turn those skills into production and he’ll lose that elite luster. He needs to stay healthy, show a better eye, score more runs and overall power if he wants to prove he was worth that #2 overall pick and show that he’s still capable of being an elite, upper-echelon fantasy 2B.

10. Kazuo Matsui & Jamey Carroll, Rockies
Matsui’s 2006 Season: 32 R, 3 HR, 26 RBI, 10 SB, .267
Carroll’s 2006 Season: 84 R, 5 HR, 36 RBI, 10 SB, .300

Carrol, in his first season as starter, showed some good contact hitting ability, but his total lack of power and relative lack of speed and base-stealing success (10 SBs in 22 attempts in 2006), will make it very hard for him to maintain a starting job if he doesn’t hit at least .300. As a career .280 hitter, with an already-established career as a utility man, at age 33, hitting .300 again looks like quite the task. Factor in still only 33 extra-base hits despite playing his home games at Coors and a hideous .220-3-17 road split, and Carroll will need to show some added pop and a better total package to prove he shouldn’t return to the bench as a super-utility, pinch-hitter type and that last year’s impressive peripherals weren’t a Coors-induced fluke.

Similarly, Kaz Matsui, arguably the biggest Japanese flop of them all, put together the best offensive stint of his unproductive career with a 2-19-8-.345 line in 32 games upon joining the Rockies. He offers more offensive upside and power than Carroll, though that’s damning with faint praise, but he also has a better track record as a hitter, is swifter on the base paths, and certainly more intriguing and suited to be a starter. Unfortunately, he hasn’t hit anywhere near that since arriving in the U.S. and his .411 AVG in Coors played a big role in his rebound. Luckily, he’ll take half his at-bats in Coors again in 2007 and could be in line for a starting job to prove he’s not the biggest Japanese-imported fantasy bust and that he could still have some value as a light-hitting, moderate-AVG, base stealer in deeper leagues.

Aces of Fantasy Diamonds

Regardless of the depth, talent, and intrigue surrounding any draft class of starting pitchers, every team should focus on landing a legitimate, safe pick as their ace to solidfy their rotation. The purpose of this article is to establish what requirements should be met to qualify as a fantasy ace, which starting pitchers in 2007 meet this criterion, and who are the top 12/14 (based on the size of most standard leagues) starting pitchers this season (i.e. which pitchers should be aces in standard leagues). Not all 12/14 starters will meet all the requirements in 2007, as is the case in many years, but the list will be rounded out by those closest to meeting requirements and with the greatest potential of achieving ace status this season.

The Requirements:

Due to the high-risk of injury that seems to swirl around starting pitchers combined with the extreme difficulty of sustaining a high level of continued, consistent success as a pitcher in a hitter’s era with more and more hitter’s ballparks, all of the following requirements will be based on three-year principles. This will notably and intentionally exclude all starting pitchers with less than three years experience, as my personal definition of an ace is someone with an established track record who presents a high-level of reliability. Not that I don’t think a guy like Scott Kazmir or Rich Harden won’t develop into aces this season (if healthy), but the idea is to find low-risk, high-reward pitchers to be the backbone of your staff, and you wouldn’t want to rely on Harden as your ace if he only made 9 starts again, would you?

1) Durability/Health
Nothing is more essential to the success of your staff’s ace than is ability to go out and make starts each week. We have seen hundreds of great arms with ace potential fall by the wayside because they couldn’t stay healthy or couldn’t reach high pitch counts. The primary purpose of the ace is to provide stability and security to a rotation, and regardless of actual production, it is impossible to meet this goal without good-to-great health. Any pitcher who is to qualify as an ace should have made at least 75 starts over the past three seasons, with at least 22 starts in each season, and averaged at least 6 IP per outing. The pitcher should also have no recent arm injury history and obviously, should not be coming off any kind of surgery that affects throwing motion or delivery.

2) Ability to maintain a sub-4.00 ERA
Wins may be considered the most important fantasy stat by some, but wins are a much more readily found commodity. Every year, there will be the same numbers of wins available to all pitchers, but as the league becomes more and more favorable to hitters, sub-4.00 ERAs become harder and harder to find. Also, pitchers who can post three straight seasons of sub-4.00 ERAs should be considered very valuable commodities regardless of their other numbers. Strikeouts and wins have been tallied on by below-average starters each season, but finding a pitcher who limits his mistakes and can consistently put up an ERA better than league-average is something that is often only found amongst the elite starters. Not every ace needs to be on a great team or have a sparkling K/BB ratio, but they need to be able to keep their earned runs low. Any pitcher who averages a sub-4.00 ERA over the past three seasons, with at least 2 sub-4.00 seasons will meet the requirements.

3) Double-digit Wins
ERA may be far more important to a pitcher’s stature, but any legitimate ace, regardless of how bad of a squad he pitches for and regardless of how much run support, must be able to consistently churn out double-digit win totals each season. If a pitcher makes 25-30 starts a season and can’t win at least a third of those, then they should not qualify as an ace. Wins can be accumulated by the rest of the rotation, but to be a part of the upper-echelon of starters, big win totals must be offered as an additional bonus. To qualify, any pitcher must have won 35 games over the last three seasons and at least 10 games in each season.

4) The Ability to Rack Up Strikeouts
One of the key ingredients that can be found in any of the top 15-20 starters in terms of productivity is the ability to consistently strike out batters. A good strikeout rate exemplifies a pitcher’s ability to overpower hitters, limit the number of balls put in play and the influence of luck and the defense behind him, more readily get out of james, and most importantly, absorb any damage done by the occasional bad start. When your ace doesn’t post a quality start, it can have a significantly adverse effect on your team, but that bad start can practically be erased or transformed into a quality start if he can accumulate a large strikeout total. Strikeouts like wins are an added bonus, but strikeouts often indicate just how successful a pitcher will be in the longterm, and are the most basic form of racking up additional points and maintaining productivity regardless of overall effectiveness. Most would like 1 K/IP from their aces, but .8 K/IP and up are acceptable, solid rates. Any pitcher who has been able to maintain a level of .8 K/IP over the course of three straight seasons and has struck out at least 140 each year would qualify.

5) Limiting Mistakes
While stats like HRs allowed, intentional walks allowed, opposing hitters’ batting average, and BAA with runners in scoring position don’t directly influence scoring in most leagues (in that they are not usually stats), they still play a large factor in a pitcher’s success and likelihood of prolonging that success in the future. Rarely will you ever see a pitcher overly susceptible to the longball and amongst the top 20 in HRs allowed come anywhere near achieving ace status, and same goes for pitchers who allow too many walks, regardless of how unhittable their stuff is. If they can’t consistently throw strikes, it will catch up with them. Opposing batting average may be heavily influenced by defense, luck, and BABIP (Batting Average for Balls Put in Play – for which a pitcher has limited control), but I think it’s pretty obvious that if a pitcher is allowing anything higher than a BAA between .270-.275, he should be avoided. BAA w/ RISP is a further example of how hittable a pitcher is, but more importantly, in pressure situations with runs on the line. The ability to have consistent success in getting out of jams can often shave a full run off a season-ending injury. The bottomline for requirements: No appearances in the top ten in HRs Allowed for their league in any of the last three seasons, never having an opposing BAA of .265 or higher in any season, and a cumulative WHIP under 1.30 over the last three seasons.

6) The It Factor
There’s no tool to which to measure it, but any ace must have “it.” The abiliy to dominate for extended periods of time, the ability to shoulder the load of their teams when the offense isn’t scoring runs and the team isn’t winning games, the ability to take over games are all part of an inmeasurable intangible that solidfies an ace’s reputation and stature and gives you the confidence to make him the backbone of your rotation. Often interwined are a pitcher’s natural abilities – arm strength, repetoire of pitches, stuff, velocity, command, and poise, possessing these tools usually in turn is represented through the success of the above requirements. Obviously this is entirely subjective, so it’s impossible to set a particular standard for the requirement, you just have to use your best judgment.

7) Consistency
Obviously, being able to meet each requirement for each season over a three-year span indicates very good season-to-season consistency, and the ability to be consistently effective on a large scale. The consistency I’m referring to is the week-to-week consistency that is of paramount importance, especially in head-to-head leagues. If a pitcher is very up and down throughout the course of the season and can’t be relied on or has a propensity for long, cold spells that result in average-to-below average production and last for more than 3-4 or starts, they should be approached cautiously. I don’t have the time or resources to put together a viable consistency stat to meet a requirement, so this should also be considered subjective, but avoidable with some moderate research using game logs and bi-weekly splits.

Recap: Obviously even the particular numerical requirements I suggested are far too stringent to actually prevent a pitcher from being an ace should he not meet one or two of them. If a pitcher meets everything suggested above, but only averages 7.5 K/IP, would you not consider him an ace? Of course you would. If Jake Peavy, in arguably the unluckiest season by a starting pitcher in recent memory, only won 9 games instead of 11, would he no longer be considered an ace? Not a chance.

The bottomline is that each owner will hold the qualificationsand expectations of an ace in a different regard, depending on opinion, team make-up, and philosophy. The numbers I manifested were just my personal standards and are not inflexible, which doesn’t mean to take them with a grain of salt, but to not allow them to become the end-all when determining which pitchers should and shouldn’t be aces. Obviously, most people (hopefully) aren’t going to scrutinize every little aspect I laid out when selecting an ace, so I figured this article might have some value if I did it for you.

2007 Starters Who Fully Qualify for Ace Status:
-These five pitchers meet each and every of the above qualifications (including the subjective ones in my opinion), so I don’t think any explanation is required. Just note that three of the five come from the NL Central.

1. Johan Santana, LHSP, Twins
04: 34 GS / 228.0 IP / 20 W / 265 K / 2.61 ERA / 0.91 WHIP / .192 BAA
05: 33 GS / 231.2 IP / 16 W / 238 K / 2.87 ERA / 0.97 WHIP / .210 BAA
06: 34 GS / 233.2 IP / 19 W / 245 K / 2.77 ERA / 1.00 WHIP / .216 BAA

2. Chris Carpenter, RHSP, Cardinals
04: 28 GS / 182.0 IP / 15 W / 152 K / 3.46 ERA / 1.14 WHIP / .245 BAA
05: 33 GS / 241.2 IP / 21 W / 213 K / 2.83 ERA / 1.06 WHIP / .231 BAA
06: 32 GS / 221.2 IP / 15 W / 184 K / 3.09 ERA / 1.07 WHIP / .235 BAA

3. Carlos Zambrano, RHSP, Cubs
04: 31 GS / 209.2 IP / 16 W / 188 K / 2.75 ERA / 1.22 WHIP / .225 BAA
05: 33 GS / 223.1 IP / 14 W / 202 K / 3.26 ERA / 1.15 WHIP / .212 BAA
06: 33 GS / 214.0 IP / 16 W / 210 K / 3.41 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / .208 BAA

4. Roy Oswalt, RHSP, Astros
04: 35 GS / 237.0 IP / 20 W / 206 K / 3.49 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / .260 BAA
05: 35 GS / 241.2 IP / 20 W / 184 K / 2.94 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / .262 BAA
06: 32 GS / 220.2 IP / 15 W / 166 K / 2.98 ERA / 1.17 WHIP / .263 BAA

5. John Smoltz, RHSP, Braves
99*: 29 GS / 186.1 IP / 11 W / 156 K / 3.19 ERA / 1.12 WHIP / .245 BAA
05: 33 GS / 229.2 IP / 14 W / 169 K / 3.06 ERA / 1.15 WHIP / .243 BAA
06: 35 GS / 232.0 IP / 16 W / 211 K / 3.49 ERA / 1.19 WHIP / .251 BAA

*Smoltz spent 2001-04 as an effective closer, therefore was not penalized for seasons in relief (unlike Curt Schilling, who posted a 5.00+ ERA in 2005 while making the majority of his appearances in relief).

Starters Nearly Qualifying for Ace Status:
-These next seven starters nearly meet all requirements, but for a variety of reasons, came up just short of fully meeting the requirements. They’re all reliable, durable pitchers who may have had minor injury setbacks, an unexpected struggle, or a bad campaign despite a track record of productivity.

6. Brandon Webb, RHSP, Diamondbacks
Where he came up short: 7-16 record in 2004 with 1.50 WHIP
Why he’s still an ace: The 2004 D’Backs were downright terrible and were the worst team in baseball. Webb still posted a 3.59 ERA and 164 K’s, and on any other team, and Webb would’ve met every single requirements by garnering double-digit wins with those same peripherals in 2004. He’s coming off a career-year resulting in a Cy Young and has every right to be including in the same breath as the NL pitchers listed above.

7. Roy Halladay, RHSP, Blue Jays
Where he came up short: Injury-plagued 2004 & 2005, limiting him to 40 total starts, with a mere 8-8 record with 4.20 ERA in ‘04. Three seasons of sub-140 K’s from ‘04-06.
Why he’s still an ace: Halladay has missed parts of each of the last three seasons, but he’s still averaging 12 wins with a 3.24 ERA per season since 2004. Halladay may not garner the massive strikeout totals, but when he’s healthy he can eat up a bunch of innings (as shown by his 9 CG since 2005) and with modest strikeout rates, he can flirt with 150 K. Halladay may have some injury concerns, but he’s still effective on a full-season level even when he’s injured, and he’s Cy Young material when he’s healthy.

8. Jake Peavy, RHSP, Padres
Where he came up short: 4.09 ERA in 2006
Why he’s still an ace: Based on BABIP, he was the second unluckiest starter in baseball last season, and if he was somehow able to post an ERA just .09 lower, he would’ve met every single qualification. He’s a bona fide ace who racks up strikeouts, wins double-digit games under any circumstances, and always maintains a good WHIP/BAA.

9. John Lackey, RHSP, Angels
Where he came up short: 4.67 ERA & .278 BAA in 2004
Why he’s still an ace: Lackey has quietly become a productive, power-armed innings-eating ace. He’s posted two nearly-identical season in 2005 & 2006, meeting all ace requirements, and coming up just shy of 200 K. Lackey is 28 and has established himself as the top arm in a deep rotation and has gradually improved into arguably the best, most reliable pitcher in his division.

10. Jason Schmidt, RHSP, Dodgers
Where he came up short: 4.40 ERA & 1.42 WHIP in injury-hampered 2005 campaign
Why he’s still an ace: Schmidt has falled quite a bit since his 17-win, 2.34 ERA 2003 season, and may have less upside than some of the riskier, young arms, but Schmidt has still met every requirement (except the two listed above) since 2002, and it could be attributed to injury. Schmidt bounced back last season, with a very impressive strikeout total, a sub-.240 BAA and still being stingy against the longball.

11. Curt Schilling, RHSP, Red Sox
Where he came up short: A disastrious 2005 season, with the majority of the season in relief – resulting in 5.69 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and .314 BAA.
Why he’s still an ace: Despite the atrocious 2005 season and his age, Schilling is still a very low-risk starter. Put him on one of the deepest teams in baseball, behind one of the best lineups and entering a contract season, in which he plans on continuing his career in 2008, and last season’s results, in which he just made all ace requirements, could significantly improve. Take away 2005, and he’s been a bona fide ace for a decade now and hasn’t shown signs of slowing down.

12. Jeremy Bonderman, RHSP, Tigers
Where he came up short: 4.89 ERA in ‘04, 4.57 ERA in ‘05, and 4.08 ERA in ‘06
Why he’s still an ace: Posting a sub-4.00 ERA is arguably the most important aspect of being an ace, and though Bonderman has yet to post a sub-4.00 ERA in his career, he has been an ace in every other single respect. Not only does he generate K’s, limit his mistakes, post above-average WHIP/BAA, winning double-digit games, and chows down innings at a very productive rate. He’s young, powerful, has no injury or durability concerns, and his ERA has significantly improved in each of the last two seasons and is gradually nearing that elusive sub-4.00 range.

Bonus Aces (for standard 14-team leagues):

13. Aaron Harang, RHSP, Reds
Where he came up short: 4.86 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and .280 BAA in 2004
Why he’s on the cusp: With only two full seasons with ace-quality numbers in his career, it’s hard to simply throw away a mediocre 2004. He can easily establish himself as a fantasy ace, if he can maintain similar production of 05-06 this season. He’s the NL’s version of John Lackey; huge, with a powerful arm, who can rack up strikeouts, remain durable all season and keep an ERA just under 4.00. He was a top 10 starter in 2006 and has put together back-to-back ace-worthy campaigns.

14. Ben Sheets, RHSP, Brewers
Where he’s come up short: Injuries have limited him to 39 starts since 2005 and a 6-win season in 2006
Why he’s on the cusp: When healthy in the past, there was always a hotly-debated discussion regarding who was the better pitcher between him and Roy Oswalt. In the last four seasons, Sheets’ potential numbers and averages based on full-health, not only meet, but blow away ace requirements. Like Roy Halladay, even with injury, he’s still effective and has long-term season-ending value, but when healthy, he is a Cy Young favorite. After struggling with arm problems all season, he only made half his expected starts, but still struck out 116 (while walking only 11). He’s got unbelieve control, the ability to stikeout 1+ K/IP and has won double-digit games in every season in which he’s made at least 20 starts.

The Aces of 2007:
1. Johan Santana, MIN
2. Chris Carpenter, STL
3. Carlos Zambrano, CHC
4. Roy Oswalt, HOU
5. John Smoltz, ATL
6. Brandon Webb, ARZ
7. Roy Halladay, TOR
8. Jake Peavy, SD
9. John Lackey, LAA
10. Jason Schmidt, LAD
11. Curt Schilling, BOS
12. Jeremy Bonderman, DET
*13. Aaron Harang, CIN
*14. Ben Sheets, MIL

Just Missed the Cut: Brett Myers (PHI), Scott Kazmir (TAM), Rich Harden (OAK), Dan Haren (OAK), Felix Hernandez (SEA), Randy Johnson (ARZ), Mike Mussina (NYY), Barry Zito (SF), Matt Cain (SF), Josh Beckett (BOS), A.J. Burnett (TOR), Dontrelle Willis (FL), Jered Weaver (LAA)

Non-Roster Invitee Report: National League

One of the best things about spring training each season are the storylines surrounding the players fighting for roster spots and starting lineups. The stars with job security may look at spring training as an extended vacation, but there are many more players who will be impacting rosters and, in turn, fantasy strategy. Some of the most intriguing players are the non-roster invitees, players fighting for contracts, but players that include former all-stars, minor league standouts, and quadruple-A’ers, entering their peak years. Every year the non-roster invitee pool has some very intriguing sleeper picks who end up finding their way onto a roster and having an impact and this year is no different than any other. Here are some NRIs to keep an eye on should they be available on the waiver wire:

Notes: Most prospects will not be included in that they are likely to be returned to the minors. These lists will mostly be composed of major and minor league veterans, most of which, with ML experience. The prospects listed will have a very good shot at making the roster. The two numbers in parenthesis following the player listed indicate the following:

1) On a scale from 1-10, the likelihood of making the team, either out of spring training or getting a call up during the season. It is a rough scale to predict potential playing time, and the more immediate the playing time, the better the score

2) On a scale from 1-10, the impact the player is likely to have upon receiving adequate playing time.

The players will be ranked according to my subjective opinion, based on potential playing time and fantasy value upon receiving playing time, for each team.

Arizona Diamonbacks

1) Micah Owings, SP(6.5/8.0)
2) D.J. Carrasco, RP (5.0/4.5)
3) Adam Bass, SP (4.5/5.0)
4) Matt Erickson, 2B (4.0/4.0)
5) Chad Harville, RP (3.0/3.5)
6) Dee Brown, OF (3.5/4.0)
7) Rich Thompson, OF (3.0/4.5)
8) Jamie D’Antonia, 3B (2.5/3.5)

Micah Owings is an intriguing leading candidate for the 5th spot in the rotation, at 6′5” 220 with impressive velocity, and posting a 16-2 record in the minor last season. D.J. Carrasco has some closing experience and could stick in the bullpen as a setup man. Dee Brown was a former top prospect for the Royals and offers good power, but not much else. Rich Thompson has bounced around from system to system, but is still young. He offers 40+ SB potential, but not much else, though he’s a better hitter than Joey Gathright.

Atlanta Braves

1)Mark Redman, SP (8.0/6.5)
2) James Jurries, 1B (5.5/5.5)
3) Willie Harris, UTIL (6.0/4.5)
4) Steve Colyer, RP (4.5/3.5)
5) Yunel Escobar, 2B (4.0/3.5)
6) Trey Hodges, SP (2.5/3.0)
7) Bill McCarthy, OF (2.5/2.5)

Mark Redman is almost a lock to win a spot in the back-end of the rotation and provide a veteran arm to eat innings as he’s done throughout his career; while undeserving, it’s also worth mentioning he was an all-star just a year ago. James Jurries was a former mid-level prospect, now 27, that put up Adam LaRoche-lite production, but flopped in 2006 in his biggest opportunity and will have to work his way back up the ladder. Steve Colyer is a modest AAA closer, but is only useful in small stints in the majors. Yunel Escobar is still young and very raw, but could get some playing without much depth up the middle.

Chicago Cubs

1) Adam Harben, SP (5.5/7.5)
2) Casey McGehee, INF (6.0/5.5)
3) Koyie Hill, C (4.0/4.0)
4) Jason Anderson, RP (4.5/3.5)
5) Mike Kinkade, 1B (3.5/3.5)
6) Ben Howard, RP (3.5/3.0)

Adam Harben has good size and velocity and overmatched many hitters at AA, he still needs some refinement, but if injuries strike the Cubs’ rotation (which they tend to do), Harben should get a big-league call-up and would have some modest value in deeper leagues. Casey McGehee hit .280 in AAA last year, can handle most infield positions, and carries a decent bat; he could probably post Mark DeRosa numbers at a much cheaper price. Koyie Hill was once considered one of the top 4-5 prospects at his position, but his bat has all but disappeared at higher levels. Mike Kinkade can still mash AAA hitting, but at 33, with his lone asset being his power, he’d be unlikely to be anything more than a pinch-hitter.Cincinnati Reds

1) Dustin Hermanson, RP (7.0/6.5)
2) Eddie Guardado, RP (6.5/5.5)
3) Victor Santos, SP (6.0/5.0)
4) Brian Meadows, RP (5.5/4.0)
5) Paul Wilson, SP (5.5/3.5)
6) Mark Bellhorn, 2B (4.5/3.5)
7) Michael Gosling, SP (3.5/3.5)
8) Kerry Ligtenberg, RP (3.5/2.5)

With an unidentified closer and a bullpen that is full of mediocre (though fairly young) arms coming off career-years, there’s a very good shot that former closers, Dustin Hermanson and Eddie Guardado will earn spots on the staff and could end up getting save opportunities. Both are coming off injuries, but have plenty of experience and are solid veteran presences. Similarly, the back-end of the rotation is far from stable and Victor Santos is a tempting 5th starter option, who has made 71 starts in the majors since 2004. Also in the mix, is Paul Wilson, the former Mets 1st round pick, nearing the end of an injury-riddled career, but performed well enough to have value in his last healthy season in 2005.

Colorado Rockies

1) Mike DeJean, RP (6.0/4.0)
2) Matt Herges, RP (5.5/4.0)
3) Steve Finley, OF (4.0/5.0)
4) Joe Koshansky, 1B (3.5/7.0)
5) Danny Graves, RP (4.0/4.5)
6) Sean Barker, OF (3.5/4.5)
7) Erick Almonte, INF (3.5/4.0)
8) Bob Keppel, SP (3.5/3.5)
9) John Mabry, UTIL (4.0/3.0)
10) Dave Veres, RP (3.0/3.0)
11) Geronimo Gil, C (3.5/2.5)

With a shaky bullpen that constantly churns out plenty of arms each season, former major-league closers, Mike DeJean (coming off injury in 2006) and Danny Graves (who pitched mediocrely in AAA) look to revive their careers before facing retirement. Matt Herges, who pitched in 66 games for the Marlins last year and is a durable utility reliever, also should be in the mix for a spot. Joe Koshansky hit 31 HRs in AA and still needs time to develop, but if Todd Helton is dealt, he could be given a cup of coffee as the back-up at first base and could display some big power at Coors. Erick Almonte has hit well at every stop in minors and held his own in a few stints with the Yankees, but has never gotten good opportunities. Coming off a .302 season with the L.I. Ducks and very little stability in the middle of the infield, he could get another call-up and post modest production.Florida Marlins

1) Alex Sanchez, OF (7.5/5.5)
2) Felix Rodriguez, RP (6.5/4.0)
3) Mike Koplove, RP (6.0/4.0)
4) Eddy Rodriguez, RP (5.0/3.5)
5) Wes Obermueller, SP (4.0/3.5)
6) Joe Dillon, 3B (3.5/4.0)
7) Chris George, SP (3.5/3.5)
8) Jason Wood, INF (4.0/3.0)
9) Ricardo Rodriguez, SP (3.0/2.5)

Alex Sanchez has been a career .296 hitter in the majors and was a prolific base stealer in his prime, he’s struggled with consistent hitting and defense, but after an abysmal year in AAA in ‘06, he is line to win the job in CF and get a good chunk of at-bats this season. Felix Rodriguez had a dominant run from ‘00-’04 as one of the game’s best relivers, but he’s achieving journeyman status bouncing around and getting hammered in each stint, but could rebound and be a solid veteran arm on a young staff. Both Mike Koplove and Eddy Rodriguez have been very good AAA relievers but only adequate in the majors, but again, with little stability in the pen, both are intriguing arms, who could carve a niche, get some save opportunities, and have some value if all breaks right for them.

Houston Astros

1) Hunter Pence, OF (6.5/7.5)
2) Richard Hidalgo, OF (6.0/4.0)
3) Rick White, RP (6.5/3.0)
4) Brian Moehler, SP (4.5/4.0)
5) Scott Sauerbeck, RP (4.0/3.5)
6) Eric Munson, INF (3.0/3.5)

Hunter Pence and Richard Hidalgo seem to be mired in a battle for the 4th outfield spot and it appears to be pretty even right now. Pence is the Astros’ top offensive prospect, who manhandled AA pitching and has good all-around offensive abilities, but a rapid promotion resulting in not enough at-bats could stunt his development. Hidalgo, on the other hand, is on the decline and perfect for the role, but his bat may not be good enough anymore. Rick White has still hung on as a journeyman reliever, who will almost certainly see some mop-up work at some point and pitch in at a league-average. The Astros could use a veteran starter in the #5 spot, but Brian Moehler looks like he doesn’t have the endurance to start anymore and there’s already a logjam of better, younger arms in the pen.Los Angeles Dodgers

1) Choo Freeman, OF (6.0/4.0)
2) Larry Bigbie, OF (5.5/4.0)
3) Rudy Seanez, RP (6.0/3.5)
4) Mitch Jones, OF (3.5/4.0)
5) Joe Mays, SP (4.0/3.0)
6) Fernando Tatis, 3B (2.0/2.0)

Choo Freeman was a former top prospect for the Rockies who has since topped out at 4th outfielder value at age 28. He’s been a good minor league hitter, but doesn’t have much upside and his skill set is best suited for an all-around back-up, which will make it tough to stick around on a team loaded with younger options. Larry Bigbie’s 2004 season of .280 is a distant memory and while he could still revive his career and be a good bench player, he’s nearing 30 and is buried on the depth chart. Rudy Seanez is a economically-friendly veteran arm for mop-up work and has good postseason experience, and will almost certainly get some innings somewhere this season. Joe Mays may have the best track record of all, but has deteriorated in past seasons and after an atrocious ‘06, he may need to spend all of ‘07 in AAA, proving he still has what it takes to pitch in the majors.

Milwaukee Brewers

1) Yovani Gallardo, SP (6.0/9.0)
2) Ryan Braun, 3B (5.0/7.5)
3) Chris Spurling, RP (5.5/3.5)
4) Vince Perkins, SP (4.0/4.0)
5) Alec Zumwalt, RP (4.5/3.0)
6) Brad Nelson, 1B (3.0/3.0)

Yovani Gallardo and Ryan Braun are two of the rare elite prospects that made this list, simply because there is a very good shot both will stick with the big-league club. Gallardo is a crafty 21 year-old with a good repetoire, who struck out a ridiculous 188 in 155 IP last season in AA and has impressed this spring. Braun, a top draft pick, with unlimited power potential did some damage at AA and is in the mix for a spot at third base, though is still very inexperienced. Chris Spurling has come back from surgery and with some good experience, could stick in the pen, as could intriguing minor league righty reliever, Alec Zumwalt.

New York Mets

1) Aaron Sele, SP (6.5/5.0)
2) Ruben Gotay, 2B (5.5/4.0)
3) Jorge Vasquez, RP (5.5/3.5)
4) Andy Tracy, 1B (3.5/3.5)
5) Mark Kiger, INF (3.5/3.0)
6) Clint Nageotte, SP (3.0/3.5)
7) Sandy Alomar, Jr., C (4.0/2.5)

Aaron Sele has made 352 career major league starts and still showed he could be a league-average arm in 2006, with a solid, but unspectacular season with the Dodgers. He’s best suited as a long reliever who can make an occasional spot start, but could end up winning the 5th spot in the rotation. Ruben Gotay didn’t have the bat to stick in his first MLB stint, but hit moderately well in AAA last season and could see some time at 2B this year with little depth there. Jorge Vasquez is 25 and too old for AA, but posted some terrific numbers in relief there in 2006 and could be a sleeper pick for a mop-up spot should injuries strike. It’ll take an injury for Sandy Alomar, Jr. to make the team, but should one occur, he’s still a capable back-up catcher, though without any offensive upside.

Philadelphia Phillies

1) Ron Calloway (5.5/3.5)
2) John Ennis (4.5/3.0)
3) Karim Garcia (3.5/4.0)
4) Randall Simon (4.0/3.0)
5) Lou Collier (2.0/2.0)

Ron Calloway is a suitable 4th outfielder with a good minor league track record and some pop in his bat. He’s not a good fielder, and while he’s done well in AAA, he hasn’t hit major league pitching yet, but with little depth in the OF, he could stick at some point. John Ennis has been an durable innings-eater in AAA and has unglamorous, but solid arm, and Phillies have employed numerous cheap, veteran minor leaguers in the pen in recent years. Randall Simon is a career .283 hitter, but he strikeouts too often and is too slow for anything more than a limited bench spot. Karim Garcia has been out of baseball since 2004, but may still be the most intriguing of this sad class of NRIs.

Pittsburgh Pirates

1) Dan Kolb, RP (7.0/5.5)
2) Luis Matos, OF (6.5/4.5)
3) Masumi Kuwata, RP (6.5/4.0)
4) Michael Tejera, SP (4.5/4.0)
5) Nick Green, INF (5.5/3.0)
6) Jose Hernandez, INF (5.0/3.5)
7) Franquelis Osoria, RP (4.0/3.0)
8) Einar Diaz, C (4.5/2.5)
9) Jim Brower, RP (4.0/3.0)

Dan Kolb has pitched 16 games in six seasons and has been league average or better for five of them, including an all-star appearance, he may have struggled late as a closer, but he can still be an effective set-up man and should earn a spot in late innings. Luis Matos put together two very good seasons in ‘04-’05, but flopped in ‘06 before getting cut twice, but could be in line for a 4th OF job this season and see significant time in CF. Masumi Kuwata was a top ten starter in Japan during the 90’s, but at age 37, he may be best suited as a long reliever. Nick Green did well in a utility role for the Yankees last season and would make for a useful additional backing up an infield significantly lacking depth, though he doesn’t offer much offensive upside.

St. Louis Cardinals

1) Jolbert Cabrera, UTIL (7.5/4.0)
2) Eli Marrero, UTIL (6.5/3.5)
3) Chris Lambert, SP (4.5/5.5)
4) Taggert Bozied, 1B (4.0/4.0)
5) Rick Ankiel, OF (4.0/4.0)
6) Michel Hernandez, C (3.0/2.5)
7) Ryan Christianson, C (2.5/2.5)

Jolbert Cabrera was a utility-extraordinaire in ‘04-’05 before going to Japan, but he returns at age 34, still capable of handling all positions, hitting for moderate average with some steals, and with all the injuries occuring should make the team and see significant playing time. Similar to Cabrera, Eli Marrero can handle almost all positions and has plenty of experience, he made his debut with the Cardinals and has bounced around as a journeyman, but could stick as a 3rd catcher/utility player. Taggert Bozied is a good power, who once dominated AAA hitting, but has regressed and may not be worth more than a back-up corner infield spot. Rick Ankiel has converted from former starter and hit 21 HRs in AAA last season, but strikeouts too often and is a liability in the field.

San Diego Padres

1) Shawn Estes, SP (6.5/4.0)
2) Oscar Robles, IF (5.5/3.5)
3) Todd Greene, C (4.0/3.0)
4) Shawn Wooten, UTIL (4.0/3.0)
5) Vince Sinisi, 1B (3.0/3.5)
6) Aaron Rakers, RP (3.0/3.0)

A 12-year veteran, who has pitched for seven teams since 2001, Shawn Estes is a decent, cheap veteran lefty option for the back of the rotation, but coming off of surgery in 2006 and at age 34, he’ll be battling for the 5th spot in the rotation. Oscar Robles, a top hitter in Mexico, had a solid return season in 2005, but struggled mightily in 2006, and while he can play all positions, he doesn’t offer much value in any category. Shawn Wooten was a former mid-level power prospect, who dominated minor league pitching, but he’s now 34 and has solidified his status as Quadruple-A’er with moderate AAA production and a few cups of coffee. Vince Sinisi is in the mix for a back-up spot at first, but after beating up on AA pitching, struggled in a short AAA stint and could use some seasoning.

San Francisco Giants

1) Tim Lincecum, SP (5.5/8.0)
2) Tyler Walker, RP (6.0/4.0)
3) Justin Leone, 3B (4.5/4.5)
4) Justin Knoedler, C (3.5/2.5)
5) Sun-Woo Kim, SP (3.0/3.0)

Tim Lincecum is a diminutive 21-year old with a funky wind-up, who has baffled minor league batters to the tune of a 1.95 ERA with 48 K in 27.2 IP. His nasty stuff with his delivery make him a very intriguing young pitcher, but with only 8 minor league starts and Russ Ortiz locked in at #5, he’ll likely start the year in the minors. Tyler Walker is coming off major arm surgery, but is back for a second stint as a Giant after recording 10 saves for the Devil Rays last year. Justin Leone is a career .260 minor league hitter, who has averaged 20 HRs a year, and at age 30 could peak, and would make for a cheap, effective corner infield back-up if given a chance. Sun-Woo Kim is deceptive and durable, but he gives up too many HRs to survive as a starter, but could be in the mix for a long relief role.

Washington Nationals

1) Dmitri Young, 1B/3B (7.5/5.5)
2) Ray King, RP (8.0/4.0)
3) Brandon Claussen, SP (5.5/4.5)
4) Robert Fick, C (6.5/3.5)
5) Chris Michalak, SP (5.0/3.5)
6) D’Angelo Jimenez, IF (4.5/3.5)
7) Joe Thurston, 2B (4.0/3.5)
8) Luis Martinez, SP (3.5/4.0)
9) George Lombard, OF (3.5/3.0)
10) Wayne Lydon, OF (3.0/4.0)
11) Colby Lewis, SP (3.5/3.0)
12) Brandon Harper, C (4.0/2.5)
13) Felix Diaz, SP (2.5/2.0)

Bad teams often have the deepest, most intriguing NRIs, and the Nationals are are as bad as they come. Dmitri Young is coming off an injury-plagued, controvery filled season, and his defense is detriorating, but he’s a seasoned veteran, who can still mash and even bat in the middle of a poor lineup. Ray King has thrown six straight years of 60+ gaes at league-average or better, and with rumors swirling about Chad Cordero possibly getting traded, he could fill-in as a servicable veteran closer or set-up man. With the rotation in shambles, former top prospect Brandon Claussen and journeyman Chris Michalak, who returned to the majors last season for the first time since ‘02 and posted a respectable 4.89 ERA, are in the mix. Robert Fick still has better offensive upside than most catchers, but struggles to maintain consistency as well as defensively, but could stick as a veteran bat as an all-around back-up, with only Rule V draftee Jesus Flores standing in his way as the back-up catcher.

2007 Contract-Year Players

I think most people are fairly familiar with the recent phenomenon of players posting career years prior to hitting the free agent market the following offseason. Whether or not some of the most recent exhibits were inspired by a big payday or just have impeccable timing, the trend is hard to deny. We’ve seen average players turn into superstars, superstars turn into megastars, and in some cases, we’ve seen them return to their previous stature after getting paid. This phenomenon certainly doesn’t hold true for all upcming free agents in a given season, but the idea of this article isn’t to dispute its credibility or its importance on an upcoming fantasy season, it is to attempt to seek out which players could become the next wave of this growing trend. Plucking the right contract-year player at the right time can often make for the best value of any selection in a given draft and have a significant effect on drafting strategies. So, without further adieu, here is a position-by-position breakdown of this year’s class of contract-year players.

Position: Players Eligible for Free Agency

C: Brad Ausmus, Rod Barajas, Michael Barrett, Ramon Castro, Jason Kendall, Paul LoDuca, Damian Miller, Jose Molina, Jorge Posada, Ivan Rodriguez, Yorvit Torrealba

Most likely to be affected by contract-year status: Rod Barajas, Phillies

He got some (bad) publicity when he spurned the Blue Jays for a starting gig for the Phillies, but publicity is publicity and for the first time, he finds himself  undisputedly atop the depth chart. Entering the crossroads of his career as a 31-year old career backup, gradually approaching journeyman catcher status, Barajas knows that this is make-or-break time, if he wants to get that big payday. He returns to the NL, where he was once considered a top prospect, and he’ll get to flaunt his best asset, his power, in one of the most favorable hitter’s parks in baseball against relatively weak pitching the NL East. While I wouldn’t suggest drafting him as a starter since I don’t partcularly find him to have much offensive potential outside of his power, he could play well over his head this year in a small park to get that big payday in 2008.

Natural Fantasy Value: Back-up catcher to provide power boost
Fantasy Value, if properly motivated: Back-end starter

1B: Sean Casey, Tony Clark, Shea Hillenbrand, Kevin Millar, Olmedo Saenz, Mike Sweeney, Craig Wilson

Most likely to be affected by contract-year status: Shea Hillenbrand, Angels

Hillenbrand knew he’d have to settle for a mediocre short-term deal this offseason after getting cast as a clubhouse cancer, getting traded dirt cheap, and struggling mightily upon siwtching squads. Hillenbrand is still in his peak years and while he doesn’t have a defined position, he can get by in the field at 1B/3B and has the hitting tools to maintain a job at either corner position or DH. He put up a career high 21 HRs last season despite his off-the-field issues and while he has very little patient at the plate, his lifetime .287 average combined with modest power would be enough to earn him a 4-5 year deal worth $7-8 million a year, if he can rebound in Los Angeles this season.

Natural Fantasy Value: Bench player to fill-in at corner infield spots
Fantasy Value, if propely motivated: Starter at 3B/UTIL

2B: Luis Castillo, Marcus Giles, Mark Grudzielanek, Jeff Kent, Mark Loretta, Jose Valentin

Most likely to be affected by contract-year status: Marcus Giles, Padres

Giles hasn’t been injured nearly as often as most people believe, but with an aura of fragileness combined with his AVG and OBP dropping four straight seasons, Giles is in need of a serious career revival if he ever wants to be considered anything more than a mediocre second baseman with top-tier potential. Giles was dumped fairly cheaply, and while he used to be considered a potential 20/20 guy, he has struggled to be a 10/10 guy over the past few seasons and is a tricky guy to place in the batting order. A prototypical #2 hitter when he’s on his game, San Diego may be the perfect place for Giles entering his contract-year. He’ll be in a comfort zone playing in his hometown alongside his big brother, and while Petco is a nightmare for most hitters, it is perfect for the gap-hitting, double-loving Giles, who can take advantage of the vast open spaces in the outfield. He doesn’t need to hit 20 HRs, but we should expect to see a rise in AVG, OBP, and runs scored at the very least.

Natural Fantasy Value: Back-end starter
Fantasy Value, if properly motivated: Mid-level starter

SS: David Eckstein, Carlos Guillen, Juan Uribe, Omar Vizquel

Most likely to be affected by contract-year status: Carlos Guillen, Tigers

With a similar tool set as the aforementioned Giles, Guillen turned around his career in the spacious Comerica Park by becoming a doubles hitter, taking more chances on the base paths, and hitting for contact, not power. Guillen has dealt with some injuries in the past, but with a .320 average, 44 HRs, 34 SB, and 205 RBI in 2 1/2 seasons since joining the Tigers, Guillen is establishing himself as an elite offensive shortstop, who carries a good glove and offers some positional flexibility. He knows he’s on the precipice of a monster payday with a big 2007, and if all goes well, we could see some team reach and give him Jeter or Tejada-like money.

Natural Value: Mid-level starter
Fantasy Value, if properly motivated: Top-tier starter, with top 5 potential at position

3B: Aaron Boone, Pedro Feliz, Cesar Izturis, Corey Koskie, Mike Lowell

Most likely to be affected by contract-year status: Pedro Feliz, Giants

f all the players mentioned, Feliz stands out to me as not only one of the guys who could most benefit from a career year in 2007, but one who would be most likely to put it all together just in time for a big payday from a GM dumb enough to think he’s worth a starting job as their 3B. Feliz carries a powerful bat that offers perennial 20HR/80RBI potential, but his swing has too many holes, he doesn’t draw walks and has never hit overly well in pressure situations. He struggles to keep an average above .250 and while his slugging percentage is eye-catching, he has never had the luster of an everyday starter. He’s perfect in a Rob Mackowiak jack-of-all-trades role with his positional flexibility, but if he can even show some minor improvements as a contact hitter, he could flirt with a modest payday next offseason as a penciled-in starter.

Natural Fantasy Value: Bench player with all-around utility role
Fantasy Value, if properly motivated: Platoon player at 3B/UTIL

RF: Bobby Abreu, Milton Bradley, Jermaine Dye, Jose Guillen, Geoff Jenkins, Reggie Sanders, Ichiro Suzuki

Most likely to be affected by contract-year status: Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners

There isn’t much for Ichiro to prove. We all know he’s one of the best contact hitters in the game, he’s a stellar defender, a sparkplug in any lineup, and has untapped potential. We also know that the Mariners look to be a distant fourth in a four team race in the AL West this season and with Mike Hargrove likely to get canned if the inevitable occurs, the Marines could enter a rebuilding stage and do the unthinkable and let Ichiro test the free agent market. Ichiro put up a great 2006 campaign, but he’s capable of even better numbers. Ichiro has the pop in his bat for 20 HRs and with GMs ga-ga for any type of power, should Ichiro show an improvement in power numbers along with 30-40 SBs and another .300+ season, he could be looking at some big time fantasy value in 2007 and an even bigger payday in 2008.

Natural Fantasy Value: 2nd round pick, #1 OF
Fantasy Value, if properly motivated: 1st round pick, #1 OF

CF: Eric Byrnes, Mike Cameron, Brady Clark, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Corey Patterson, Aaron Rowand

Most likely to be affected by contract-year status: Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks

Player A, entering contract year in 2006: 32 years old, can play all three outfield positions, possessing great defensive skills and known for big-play capabilities in the field, has been with 6 different major league teams, career .249 hitter, who just posted career highs in HRs (17) and RBI (55) in 2005

Player B, entering contract year in 2007: 31 years old, call play all three outfield positions, possessing great defensive skills and known for big-play capabilities in the field, has been with 4 different major league teams, career .261 hitter, who just posted career highs in HRs (26) and RBI (79) in 2006

If you haven’t guessed it yet, Player A is Gary Matthews, Jr., who posted a career year in his contract year and got a 5-year, $50 million deal this offseason. Player B is Eric Byrnes, who certainly appears to be destine for similar fate, considering he’s still two years younger, has more offensive upside, and has 30 SB potential. Byrnes has earned a reputation with his highlight reel, all-out defensive style and versatility. He had a quiet 25/25 season at the plate and if he can hone his contact hitting just a touch and put up anything near Matthews’ .313 last year, he could be in for a big 2007 and find himself getting wooed by plenty of teams next offseason.

Natural Fantasy Value: top-level #3 OF
Fantasy value, if properly motivated: mid-level #2 OF

LF: Moises Alou, Barry Bonds, Adam Dunn, Cliff Floyd, Brad Wilkerson, Preston Wilson

Most likely to be affected by contract-year status: Preston Wilson, Cardinals

Wilson originally signed a deal with the Astros that could’ve earned him in excess of $28 million over the next four seasons had he lived up to expectations last season. Wilson not only fell short, he didn’t even come close, finding himself on the waiver wire midseason. When Wilson looked as if his value hit rock-bottom, he had an offensive revival with the Cardinals, for whom he re-upped for a season in 2007. Wilson will be slated as the 4th outfielder, but with his ability to handle all three OF spots and only a rapidly-declining Jim Edmonds and fairly inexperienced Chris Duncan standing in his way as a starter, he should find adequate playing time. He was very productive with 8 HR and 6 SB in only 33 games as a Cardinal and with the potential of earning that big payday in 2008, Wilson could step it up even further this season.

Natural Fantasy Value: waiver-wire pick-up
Fantasy Value, if properly motivated: #4 OF on bench/back-end #3 OF

SP: Mark Buehrle, Shawn Chacon, Bartolo Colon, Tom Glavine, Freddy Garcia, Livan Hernandez, Jason Jennings, Byung-Hyun Kim, Jon Lieber, Odalis Perez, Andy Pettitte, Curt Schilling, Jeff Weaver, Jake Westbrook, Randy Wolf, Jaret Wright, Carlos Zambrano

Most likely to be affected by contract-year status: Curt Schilling, Red Sox

At end of 2005, everyone was ready to write Curt Schilling off as ever having fantasy value again. At the end of 2006, everyone is ready to write Curt Schilling off as nothing more than a low-end #2/high-end #3 fantasy starter. Schilling has adamantly expressed that he is looking to prolong his career after this season by not retiring and with the Red Sox possessing enough arms for a nuclear war, Schilling will likely be able to test the market one last time. Schilling wants to go out in style, and as the tentative ace on a well-stocked team with a powerful offense behind him, he could flirt with 20 wins in 2007, and if he’s inspired enough, could top 200 K and maintain his usual sub-4.00 ERA. If he does it, and improves upon last year’s numbers, he could be looking at something similar, but sperior, to what Andy Pettitte got this offseason (1 year, $16 million).

Natural Fantasy Value: low-end #2/high-end #3 fantasy starter
Fantasy value, if properly motivated: low-end #1/high-end #2 starter

2nd Most likely to be affected by contract-year status: Jake Westbrook, Indians

Westbrook perfectly fits the mold of a pitcher with a high ceiling capable of putting together a huge 2007 campaign and getting a big payday in ‘08. We saw Gil Meche earn a 5-year, $55 million deal thanks mostly due to his durability and consistency as an average, finesse pitcher. Westbrook offers the same great durability, making 96 starts over the last three years, a respectable 4.35 career ERA, and a modest near-2:1 K/BB ratio. Westbrook has good size and velocity with above-average command, combined with the fact that he was relatively unused prior to 2003 and will only be 30 years old come next offseason. With the Indians a sexy sleeper pick to make a division run and with an offense that could light up scoreboards in 2007, Westbrook, assuming he prolongs his track record of good health, should at least post a thirs straight season of 15 victories while maintaining league-average peripherals and find himself getting #2 starter money next year.

Natural Fantasy Value: #4 innings eating starter
Fantasy value, if properly motivate: low-end #2/high-end #3 starter

RP: Armando Benitez, Joe Borowski, Francisco Cordero, Eric Gagne, Eddy Guardado, LaTroy Hawkins, Trevor Hoffman, Jason Isringhausen, Todd Jones, Jorge Julio, Joe Kennedy, Scott Linebrink, Joe Nathan, Darren Oliver, Joel Pineiro, Mariano Rivera, J.C. Romero, Julian Tavarez, Mike Timlin, Luis Vizcaino, Bob Wickman, Kerry Wood

Most likely to be affected by contract-year status: Jason Isringhausen

With Adam Wainwright breathing down his neck for the role of closer this season and a growing concern for his penchant for injury, Izzy knows this is his make-or-break season. People forget that Isringhausen posted five straight seasons of sub-3.00 ERAs with 305 K in 313 IP from 2001-05 prior to last season’s injury-hampered campaign. Even with injury, Izzy still racked up 33 saves and kept a respectable 3.68 ERA. The problem was a career high in losses and HRs allowed since being converted into a reliever, as well as a career worst WHIP of 1.46. When healthy, he’s still definitely closer-material, but in order to work his way back into the top half of the league’s closers and get himself a big contract next offseason, he needs to rebound with a reviving, injury-free 2007 campaing.

Natural Fantasy Value: mid-level #2 closer
Fantasy value, if properly motivated: low-end #1/high-end #2 closer

2nd Most likley to be affected by contract-year status: Kerry Wood, Cubs

Wood always seems to enter February healthy, but then never seems to get going in Spring Training and ends up getting pushed back, missing the season opener, and pitching a few times here and there during the season. So, while, saying Wood appears to be in the best condition in quite some years and should be making his spring training debut next week will be taken with a grain of salt by most, this could just finally be the year Wood stays healthy. Why? Because with his unbelievable velocity and nasty stuff, all it takes is one good, healthy year prior to hitting free agency and Wood could become a very rich man. Wood is slated to pitch in the bullpen this season and if he’s healthy and Ryan Dempster’s struggles from last season carry over, Wood may find himself in the role of closer, which would further boost his 2007 value and 2008 paycheck. If Wood is back and he’s determined, he could finally be worth that late-round sleeper pick.

Natural Fantasy Value: late-round pick/waiver-wire pick-up
Fantasy value, if properly motivated: high-end #3 relief pitcher