Head-to-Head, Vol. 2

In the second installment of head-to-head, I’ll take on some more potential draft day dilemmas including the Windy City first basemen, the greatest closers of all-time, and which catcher to take after Joe Mauer.

1. Paul Konerko vs. Derrek Lee

Situation: Who’s the better Chicago first baseman?

The Winner: Paul Konerko

The city may be big enough for both of them, but it isn’t likely your fantasy roster will be. Both Konerko and Lee are 31 years old and have put very similar career numbers in a very similar timespan. Konerko’s has played in 1275 career games, with a 677-245-805-5-.283 career fantasy line, while Lee, who has played in 1235 career games, has posted a 671-216-656-86-.276 line. Both have proven to be good 3rd/4th round values, and while it can be argued that Lee has the higher ceiling, Konerko is certainly the safer pick at this point. Konerko certainly has more stability surrounding him and after three straight seasons of 35+ HRs, 100+ RBIs and a batting average that has risen each of the last four years, he’s a low-risk, high-reward pick.

Lee is still a better all-around producer when healthy, in that he can also add a good number of stolen bases, and we’ve seen his ability to be an elite hitter after a terrific 2005 campaign, but with a likely regress toward his career averages and coming off injury, he’s a high-risk, higher-potential-for-rewards option compared to Konerko, but the potential of 2005-esque rewards aren’t high enough to meet the risk nor are they likely to be met. Both are very good second-tier first basemen, and Lee was always consistent prior to injury last season, but Konerko is more consistent and reliable at this point.

2. Jonathan Papelbon vs. Adam Wainwright

Situation: Which young reliver-turned-starter is the better fantasy option?

The Winner: Adam Wainwright

Papelbon may have outperformed Wainwright last season as relievers, but as dominant minor-league starters, both should be on relatively the same plane in their rotations this season. Hitters looked as if they were catching up to Papelbon a bit late in the season before he was shut down due to injury, while Wainwright continued to dominate all season long right through the posteason, where he threw 9.2 scoreless innings, striking out 15 and allowing a .194 BAA under the spotlight. Wainwright has carried over his postseason success with a dominant spring training, has proven that he’s built his endurance back up, and is with little risk here.

Papelbon has recovered quickly from injury and has been lights out himself this spring with 13 K in 8.2 IP and a 2.08 ERA. Both have nasty stuff, have great track records and young, intriguing arms, but Wainwright has more endurance at this point, less injury concern, and is a riding a much hotter streak. Papelbon should get into the groove by no later than May and will likely post a slightly higher K rate, but Wainwright appears to be the safer option, more likely to be able to go 7/8 innings to pick up the few extra wins that could separate them in value by season’s end.

3. Brian McCann vs. Victor Martinez

Situation: Who’s the second-best fantasy option at catcher after Joe Mauer this season?

The Winner: Victor Martinez

For the first two matchups, I clearly chose reliability over upside, and I was about to change my stance in this case, until I realized that V-Mart was second amongst all catchers in runs scored, with an impressive total of 82. McCann may offer more offensive punch and power upside, but Martinez is the more legitimate, all-around, offensive weapon that gives the added dimension of runs scored, which is so rarely seen from the catcher position. Martinez also has the added bonus of 1B eligibility, hitting in a much better lineup, ina more favorable home park and league. McCann will likely post better power numbers than Martinez,and even though he hit 17 points higher, a repeat of his .333 AVG a season ago is unlikely. They finished tied with 93 RBIS apiece, and even if you give a slight edge in power and average to McCann, they don’t make up for Martinez’ ability to generate and score runs at a much higher level.

4. Jason Giambi vs. Troy Glaus

Situation: Who’s the better Three Tue Outcomes* (HR, Walk, Strikeout), all-power, low-average corner infielder?

*courtesy of Basebal Prospectus

The Winner: Jason Giambi

Giambi and Glaus both have a lot in common, including the propensity to either homer, walk, or strikeout in the majority of their plate appearances; both are limited one-dimensional corner infielders with old-player skills, both score plenty of runs despite being less than nimble on the basepaths and extremely low stolen bases totals, and both will get the opportunity to drive in plenty of runs in the heart of a loaded lineup. Glaus may be five years younger, but because of his aforementioned old-player skills, his age plays a very limited factor, when compared to Giambi, who has only recently worn a similar tag. Giambi has a better injury track record, has slightly more power, has historically driven in more runs than Glaus per season, and has also, on average, struck out about 30 times less while walking about 20 more times. Glaus still scores more runs, and can actually steal the occassional base, unlike Giambi, but Giambi is superior in pure power production and potential for a non-liability AVG. Giambi is still a career .292 hitter, as opposed to Glaus’ career .253, which has in turn, resulted in a significantly higher career OPS (.954 vs. .860).

5. Trevor Hoffman vs. Mariano Rivera

Situation: Which of the two greatest closers of all-time is the better fantasy option in 2007?

The Winner: Trevor Hoffman

This one was the hardest for me to personally decide upon of all five matchups, not only because their regular season careers are extraordinarily amazing and similar, but because both are in such similar situations and are projected to post very similar numbers by many in 2007. Hoffman may be two years older with more wear and tear on his arm, but Rivera should be considered the less durable and more injury prone of the two. While Hoffman has clearly lost a step in his final stages, he has still posted three straight seasons of 41+ saves and sub-3.00 ERAs. Rivera, while still clearly dominant (and unbelievably efficient) in terms of ERA, WHIP, BAA, and Wins, his save totals have diminished to below average in recent seasons and have dropped from 53 in 2004 to 43 in 2005 to a mere 34 in 2006. Rivera’s appearances have also seen a sharp drop, and while unlike Hoffman, he still offers multiple-inning outings, his value is limited when he is subject to missing weeks at a time to rest.

When both are fully healthy, Rivera is superior, but his dwindling appearance and innings pitched totals are worrisome as is the bullpen in front of him responsible for protecting leads. Both are still the favorites in their division and will be able to rack up saves against inferior competition. With the likelihood of more save opportunities based on appearances and preserved leads, as well as a slightly higher strikeout rates and still very consistent, good (although inferior) peripherals, Hoffman is my pick to be the more effective closer in terms of overall season value and week in and out consistency.

Head-to-Head, Vol. 1

The concept behind head-to-head is to take two players who are in similar situations with similar stat projections and attempt to determine which option should reign supreme in 2006. It’s a beneficial draft tool when you’re in a dilemma as to which option to select in your draft and it’s also a worthwhile read if you plan on dropping one player for a similar player. By no means should my opinion be considered the end-all to any head-to-head dilemma you’re having, but it certainly can’t hurt. So, without further adieu, here are five head-to-head matchups that could affect your draft board.

1. Rich Harden vs. Scott Kazmir

Situation: Who’s the better young ace coming off arm problems in 2006?

The Winner: Scott Kazmir

Both Harden and Kazmir will be amongst the top 20 pitchers drafted in just about any styleof draft this offseason, and while neither has topped 11 wins in a single season, the potential of these two pitchers staying healthy has fantasy owners drooling at the possibility of a mid-round steal.

Naturally, Harden, who is on a far superior A’s squad, should be considered the favorite to win more games. Harden also has, historically, carried a significantly lower WHIP and BAA than Kazmir. Nevertheless, Harden has had a significant injury track record that has haunted him every season he has been considered as the premier sleeper at pitcher, and while he is fully healthy this spring, the caution flag is still up. Harden has never been an ace before, and while the tag shouldn’t slow im down, the offense behind him could cost him some close games.

Kazmir will lose his share of games in 2007 as well with his cellar-dwelling Devil Rays and complete devoid of a bullpen, but the lefty has untapped potential, potential that even exceed Harden’s. Kazmir has made 56 starts in the last two seasons, and at only age 23, he has averaged more than 1 K/IP and has kept a career ERA well below 4.00. He missed the remainder of last season with a shoulder problem, that shouldn’t be overlooked, but this is the first notable injury of his career and he’s already up and running as if nothing ever happened this spring. He may not win as many games as Harden, but he should throw more innings, strikeout more batters, keep a slightly lower ERA, and prove to be slightly more valuable in 2007.

2. Mike Piazza vs. Frank Thomas

Situation: Who’s the better 38-year old DH?

The Winner: Frank Thomas

Both Piazza and Thomas had significant career revivals in 2006, with Thomas having not only the greater revival but also the superior offensive season. Thomas crushed 39 HRs and posted a solid .926 OPS for an A’s team that second-to-last in the AL in batting average, hits, and slugging percentage. Piazza hit 22 HRs and posted his highest full-season batting average (.283) since 2001 for a similarly punchless Padre team, while playing his home games in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball.

Both have high hopes for 2007 and while we know nothing ever works out as it should, but both are entering situations that should further improve upon their prior campaigns. Thomas signed a two-year deal with the Blue Jays, where he’ll have much more protection in a better lineup that better suits his power (see: Troy Glaus). Piazza may even have a better chance for improvement as he joins the more hitter-friendly AL and can focus solely on hitting for the first time in his career. It doesn’t hurt that he won’t have to play in the pitcher-friendly NL West parks (Coors Field obviously excluded) for the majority of the season.

While both have the potential to improve, both have significant health and age risks, and while Thomas’ recent past has been much more turbulent (with some pretty bad lows), Piazza has remained fairly steady, though generally average in the recent past. While Thomas may have a greater risk, after a strong September, relatively good health, and a favorable change of scenery he has 40 HR/100 RBI potential, which is something we can’t say for Mike Piazza.

3. Robinson Cano vs. Dan Uggla

Situation: Who’s the better 2B coming off of a breakout season?

The Winner: Robinson Cano

Dan Uggla had one of the most magical, inspiring seasons we’ve seen in quite some time as a 26-year old rookie bordering on minor league journeyman status. Uggla emerged from obscurity and while he got off to a slow start, he heated up midseason and looked like a seasoned-vet by season’s end. He finished the season with 27 HRs, 90 RBIs, and a .282 batting average, numbers that would’ve certainly garnered a ROY award had it not been the greatest rookie class in recent memory.

In the AL, second year man Robinson Cano got off to an even slower start, as he battled injury, but Cano soon showed why the Yankees were willing to stay the course with him at second and not go out and buy a former all-star to man the position. Cano had a solid rookie campaign in 2005, but his post all-star break line of .365/.380/.635 was something no one expected. He was considered a blue-chip prospect early on, so everyone knew he could hold his own as a starter, but the way he tore through AL pitching down the stretch was downright unbelievable.

Both deserve to be top 5 2B going into 2007, but we may have already seen Dan Uggla’s peak and while it doesn’t look like he’s going anywhere soon, a regression would not be shocking. Cano should also likely regress, as the numbers he posted after the all-star break last season shouldn’t expected from even the greatest players, but with a much higher peak and more upside than the older Uggla, Cano should solidfy himself as the #2 2B (behind Utley) in all of fantasy baseball and continue to exude keeper potential.

4. Gil Meche vs. John Patterson

Situation: Who’s the better first-time ace with a lot to prove?

The Winner: John Patterson

Both Meche and Patterson are in the unfortunate situation of inheriting the role of ace for a team that is almost certain to be a punching bag for the best division in their respective leagues. Also, unfortunately for both, neither has a solid bullpen behind them or an offense capable of scoring runs on a daily basis.

Luckily for Patterson, he has shown ace-like qualities in the past, even if it was for just one season. His 3.13 ERA/1.19 WHIP/ 185 K in 198 IP 2005 campaign had him riding high, but it all came crashing down after an injury-riddled ‘06 season produced mediocre peripherals. Patterson is a power pitcher with the ability to put up solid strikeout totals to make up for the lack of wins and potential drubbings he’ll take from the offensively-superior likes of the Mets and Phillies. He was a highly regarded prospect for the Diamondbacks and while he still has to prove that 2005 wasn’t a fluke, he has a good pedigree and make-up that indicate he could top out as a near-the-top-of-the-rotation starter if all goes well.

Meche, on the other hand, has never shown us anything beyond #4 starter qualities. In four full seasons, he has shown one impressive quality – durability. But, to be an ace, especially up against the best in the AL Central, he’ll need a lot more than durability; as the only thing durability may get him in 2007 is a 20-loss season. Meche has never posted a sub-4.40 ERA in his four full seasons, and while he posted an impressive K/BB ratio last season, his four-year average in mediocre at best. He’s susceptible to the longball, he has average-to-above-average stuff and he has never shown the ability to dominate on any basis. While he is the best the Royals have to offer, it’s damning with faint praise, and he might just be the least deserving tentative ace going into the 2007 season, John Patterson included.

5. Carlos Beltran vs. Jose Reyes vs. David Wright

Situation: Which Mets’ cornerstone should be drafted first?

The Winner: Jose Reyes

Both Beltran and Wright offer you a significant portion of power with a side of speed, but neither offer the all-around value of the electrifying Jose Reyes. Reyes is a five-category producer, who even showed off a little pop in his bat with 19 HRs and a .487 slugging percentage (thanks in part to his league-leading 17 triples). He even outproduced Ryan Howard, strictly based on a points scenario, last season. Reyes biggest knock may be his inability to draw walks, but even his batting eye showed significant improvement down the stretch and with the ability to hit 20 HRs, he offers top-of-the-line production with a skill set that can’t be matched at a position severely lacking. Unfortunately, for Wright and Beltran, both deserving of 1st round picks themselves, their skill sets are both more readily found (thugh still somewhat uncommon) and their positions offer much greater depth, thus making them slightly less valuable on draft day than the do-it-all Reyes.