National Disaster

Update: The Nationals made several moves recently as they begin to finalize their starting rotation, but will have to do it without their top two starters going into the spring. Last year’s ace, Shawn Hill, will open the year on the 15-day DL as he continues from a right forearm injury from last season and 2005 & 2006 ace John Patterson was released as a result of a “lack of performance” with a 7.00 ERA this spring. Finally, the team purchased the contract of non-roster invitee Odalis Perez, who after back-to-back disappointing seasons with the Royals could be in the mix for the Opening Day start. With the most recent moves, the Nats’ projected Opening Day rotation is bordering on disastrous with Perez, Tim Redding, Jason Bergmann, Matt Chico, and John Lannan.

The View: There are quite a few developments here that could have fantasy relevance. First, John Patterson’s release apparently did not have anything to do with his recent arm injuries. He was getting shelled this spring and his fastball was peaking in the mid-80’s. It’s a bit conspicuous, considering Patterson has the control and stuff to get by without a blazing fastball and the state of the rotation is pretty shaky at this point without him. Manager Manny Acta said the organization didn’t think he was worth the risk again and GM Jim Bowden said he’s welcome to come back as a minor leaguer. Considering there seems to be something at play behind the scenes here and the decision wasn’t entirely performance-based, it’s very possible Patterson could get scooped up rather quickly and inserted into another team’s rotation. Possible suitors could include: Los Angeles Angels (who will be without Lackey and Escobar for at least a month), Florida (where he could feasibly be their ace tomorrow), Texas (who has some serious back-of-the-rotation questions), and Toronto (who lost Casey Janssen for the season after planning on making him their #4 starter and have all but given up on Gustavo Chacin). He’ll probably never be as good as his 2005 season and he’s not a great strikeout pitcher, but on a competitive team, he could be a solid back-end fantasy starter, despite injury risks.

Shawn Hill’s injury doesn’t appear to be serious and it seems to be more of a precautionary measure. Nevertheless, he was hurt on and off last season and already has a bit of a history with injury concerns despite his young age. He’s expected be to be activated on April 13 (only missing two starts), but that’s not written in ink. The staff definitely needs him back, but with this expected to be another lost season, don’t expect him to be rushed, consider this injury has already lingered for months. When healthy, he’s a good back-end fantasy starter, but right now, he’s best left on the waiver wire unless you have the room to stash him on the DL.

Odalis Perez was expected to get his major-league contract purchased from the day he signed with the Nationals, considering the rotation prospects, but it’s still too soon to consider him a viable fantasy starter. He had a good showing this spring and he’ll be at the top of this rotation, but he’s always had the look and tools of a front line starter, he just hasn’t had the focus to turn his potential into results. We saw Dmitri Young clean up his act under similar circumstances and Perez could see the rebirth of his career under the well-respected Manny Acta, but like the rest of the rotation, his immediate value is still minimal. He’s coming off a 8-11 season with the Royals, where he posted a 5.57 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and an eyesore of a BAA at .318. He also posted his worst strikeout rate of his career with 64 in 137.1 innings. He never really looked better than mediocre at any point last season and his best month was May, where he went 0-2 with a 4.40 ERA and 14 K in 30 IP. Set the bar low right now, regardless of where he sits in the rotation.

As far as the rest of the rotation is concerned, Tim Redding is coming off the best half-season of his career, is unlikely to duplicate last year’s success, and will have a tenuous grip on his job as the veteran target with pitching prospects closer than they appear in his rear view mirror. Jason Bergmann had a strong showing last year and unlike the rest of the team, can be an above-average strikeout pitcher, but he has low endurance, and is best suited for the bullpen. Matt Chico is a lefty with a cannon for an arm and repeatedly hit high 90’s with his fastball. The problem is his control is awful and despite his velocity, isn’t a strikeout pitcher. He’s still very raw, but as he continues to hone his skills, he could be a useful fantasy piece a year or two down the road. Finally, John Lannan is another young lefty who the team has become pretty high on. He plowed through A+ ball (6-0, 2.13 ERA), AA ball (3-2, 3.25 ERA), and AAA ball (3-1, 1.66 ERA) before climbing the prospect ladder to the majors. He showed pretty good poise for a pitcher, who one year earlier was toiling in A ball, and went 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in 6 starts. He’s had control issues every step of the way despite his success and won’t be a pitcher who racks up strikeouts. Despite this, he’s got a god arm and has impressed scouts this spring. The problem is, even if he posts similar numbers to last year’s major outing, he’ll likely be the odd man out when Shawn Hill is ready to return.

With the rotation in a state of chaos, all the veteran free agent pitchers probably have their agents zeroing in on Washington, in hopes of not having to settle for a minor-league deal elsewhere. The first and most prominent is Jeff Weaver, whose brother, Jered, confirmed he is in talks with the Nationals to sign a contract. The Nationals haven’t officially confirmed their interest, but it does make sense. Weaver, like Perez, needs a career revival in a low-key environment or he’s in risk of losing his “major league starter” status. Other names that could be pursued include: Freddy Garcia (if and when he’s ready to make his return), Rodrigo Lopez (health also pending), and Eric Milton (who could fill a lefty void if Chico and Lannan aren’t ready for a full season in the rotation). Right now, other than Garcia, no one is really worth tracking in terms of fantasy value.

Olson Bounced from Full House

Update: 2005 Supplemental draft pick Garrett Olson has been officially eliminated from the battle for the role of 5th starter, as Orioles manager Dave Trembley announced he was being optioned to AAA.

The View: Olson is powerful lefty with a lot of upside, but he might project better in the bullpen in the long run. He still has control issues to work out and there’s no need to rush him at this point. The Orioles’ have plenty of young pitchers competing for a 5th spot this spring and even with Olson out of the picture, it’s still murky. The odds-on favorite right now is newly-acquired Matt Albers, who came over in the Miguel Tejada trade from the Astros. Other possible candidates are in-house options Brian Burres and Jim Johnson, neither of which impressed in the majors last year.

Update: Equally disappointing news for baseball’s other Olson/Olsen twin was on display as AP sportswriter Steven Wine published this piece from the Marlins’ spring training site, which as many of us expected, states that Scott Olsen is still struggling to maintain control of his pitches (and his life). Olsen is one of four starters battling for the Opening Day nod and the role of ace, but if he’s still as erratic as he was last year as the article claims, he’s not likely to win.

The View: In 2006, Olsen emerged as a top-of-the-line quality young lefty, going 12-10 with a 4.04 ERA as a rookie. Then last season, he imploded under new managerment. It’s possible, he was overworked under Joe Girardi in 2006 or it’s possible he’s struggling with the mental aspects of the game, as he’s shown to lose his temper and control at times and has had some off-the-field issues. Whatever the reasons, when the load was placed upon his shoulder last year, he collapsed, going 10-15 with a 5.81 ERA and .315 BAA. He lost his control to a degree and saw his walk rate jump a bit, but the bigger problem was he was all too hittable. His strikeout total dropped by 33 and he gave up 66 more hits in four less innings from 2006 to 2007. Arm fatigue seems likely, but he never got it together in 2007 and it doesn’t sound like the kinks have been worked out yet in 2008. Right now, he should be avoided in all formats but the deepest NL-only leagues. It’s likely he’ll improve to some degree, but with minimal run support on a team likely to finish in dead-last and his draft value at an all-time low, you’ll be able to pluck him off the waiver wire rather than use a draft pick on him.

Strikeout King’s Nobility Hindered by Fragility

Update: Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon previously announced that Rays’ ace Scott Kazmir would likely open the season on the DL due to an elbow injury. The extent was unknown and it appeared as if Kazmir might miss at least the month of April. The Tampa Bay Tribune, though, reports that is not serious and the Rays’ anticipate placing him on the 15-day DL, but activating him on April 6th. Under this scenario, the Rays would be able to carry an extra reliever for the first week of the season, give Kazmir some time to heal his elbow, and only have him miss one start.

The View: After winning 13 games, striking out 239 batters, and posting a 3.48 ERA, Kazmir should’ve been in the top 10 drafted SPs, but did not for a variety of reasons. Many owners are concerned about his injury history and potential fragility, others worry that 13 wins is a ceiling for him on a team with such a proclivity for futility, and his WHIP of 1.38 is not much better than league-average. With the latest injury news, regardless of severity, it’ll likely scare off even more owners. Considering he’s averaging 30 starts over the last three seasons, he might only miss one start while opening the season on the DL, and the fact that the Rays are improved team, he could be a steal as a #2 SP in 2008.

He’s got the potential to get even better and he’s capable of leading the majors in strikeouts (he finished one short of ML lead behind Jake Peavy last year). He’ll still carry the injury red flag for the next couple of seasons, despite relative good health over the last three years, and it will hurt his draft status as a result. Nevertheless, he’s got everything needed to be a bona fide ace and a top-5 SP in the coming seasons. He may never be a 20-game winner in Tampa, but with his strikeout rate and peripherals he doesn’t need to be. If you’ve already drafted, now might be the best time to make an offer to Kazmir owners, who could be nervous that he’ll start the year on the DL and may be willing to sell low on the 24-year old lefty.

Unlackey Angels Suffer Another Bad Break

Update: The Angels will now be forced to open the season without last year’s #1 and #2 starters, as John Lackey will be out three to four weeks because of a strained right tricep. He has already started rehabilitation, but will be unable to partake in any “baseball activities” for nearly a month. This means Lackey won’t likely even be cleared to resume simulated throwing until mid-to-late April. The Angels already lost Kelvim Escobar for the start of the season due to a shoulder injury and now have two open rotation spots.

The View: In single-season leagues, Lackey’s draft status for the reamining mock drafts will obviously take a significant hit. He was the 7th pitcher drafted overall, according to ADP last week, but will surely fall into at least the mid-teens from drafts between now and Opening Day. Considering Lackey doesn’t have any history of arm problems and has been nothing short of workhorse for the Angels in years past, it’s not worth giving up on him for the season. He could feasibly be back by the first of week of May and only miss four or five starts, though a triceps injury on his throwing arm should be taken seriously. He’s still worth drafting as a #2 SP in hopes he’ll miss minimal time and if the recent news scares away enough owners, he could be a steal if had as a #3 SP.

As far as the Angels are concerned, they’ll open the year with Jon Garland and Jered Weaver atop the rotation – which isn’t a terrible combination, but one that will likely be outmatched by superior top-of-the-rotation tandems on other elite AL teams. They’ll now scramble to fill the back-end of the rotation behind lefty Joe Saunders. The erratic, but highly talented Ervin Santana has all but assured himself a spot in the rotation with the latest injury, despite a 5.76 ERA last season (and going 1-10 with a 8.38 ERA on the road). He’s best avoided at this time, but he’s still young enough to rebound, and is fairly effective on the road, if you’re a very actvie owner in a league without transaction limits.

The last rotation spot could be won by the prospect who most impresses the staff. The Angels’ top pitching prospect, Nick Adenhart, has looked good this spring and could make the jump after an impressive 10-8, 3.65 ERA AA campaign last year. He’ll compete against Nick Green, who posted nearly identical numbers at AA last year (10-8, 3.68 ERA), but is considered more of a low-upside prospect. Also in the mix is effective long reliever and spot-starter Dustin Moseley, who would probably be one of the best #5 starters in the league but has high value in the bullpen.

Only $45.75 Million Short

Update: Right-hander Kyle Lohse agreed to a one-year, $4.25 million deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. Lohse will be expected to open the season in the rotation due to injuries to Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, Matt Clement, and Joel Pineiro, all of which could be on the DL to start the season.

The View: This is a good move for the Cardinals, baseball, and fantasy owners. The Cardinals, who I had ranked last when rating the NL rotations a few weeks ago, desperately needed another veteran innings-eating arm. Lohse isn’t glamorous, but he has no tentative injury concerns (a huge plus for the Cardinals), is coming off a fairly useful season, and gives them a bridge between Wainwright and the slew of converted relivers who will fill out the rotation until guys like Clement, Carpenter, and Mulder are ready to return.

It’s an even better move for baseball, after Lohse spent the offseason thinking he was going to get, and I quote, “a five-year, $50 million deal.” Thankfully, GMs realized that they could pay a fraction of the cost for a prospect to pitch as effectively and Lohse had to settle for a one-year deal in the neighborhood of $4.25 million. Lohse, who hasn’t won double-digit games since 2003, has a career ERA of 4.82, and averages well under 1 K/IP really had no business demanding that kind of money, but after last year’s offseason pitcher splurge, it wasn’t out of the realm of possibility. Baseball economics have apparently taken a turn for the better and as a result, he’ll have to prove he’s a quality pitcher again in 2008 in hopes of a multiyear deal next season.

Finally, owners benefit by getting one more filler veteran arm as a potential fantasy option. Obviously, no one is going into the draft targeting Lohse, but with all the injuries that are striking pitchers, it’s always good to have extra back-up veteran starters available. In NL-only leagues, he might be in consideration for a final starting spot, but right now he’s just going to bolster the waiver wire depth. He could be a short-term filler, but who knows what his role will be if and when everyone is healthy in the rotation.

Exit Gold Glover, Enter Black Hole

Update: San Francisco Giants shortstop Omar Vizquel has announced that he will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left knee tomorrow, and as a result, will likely miss all of Spring Training. The surgery is expected to sideline him four to six weeks and puts his status in jeopardy for Opening Day. Vizquel, 41, tried working out the knee today before deciding surgery was the best issue. He’ll tentatively be replaced at shortstop by Kevin Fransden, who was battling both Ray Durham and Rich Aurilia for starting jobs in the infield.

The View: With Vizquel out, the Giants will likely open the season with the right-side of their infield questionable on both offense and defense. Ray Durham will be back at 2B after hitting .218/.295/.343 and Rich Aurilia is expected to start at 3B, despite an equally unimpressive .252/.304/.368 line. Fransden, 25, at least injects some youth and speed into the lineup, but as a natural second baseman, his range and abilities will certainly be put to the test at shortstop. His .331 OBP of a year ago along with natural speed give him the potential to be a top-of-the-lineup hitter down the road, but is right now, best suited hitting seventh or eighth. Like Aurilia and Durham, but on the right side of his peak, Fransden will likely be a below average defender at shortstop and doesn’t offer enough pop to be worth a fantasy roster spot. Fransden is diminutive and fast, but in over 100 games last year, he was only able to swipe four bags in seven attempts. Considering Vizquel isn’t expected to miss much more than the first week of the season, don’t feel compelled to pick up Fransden just because he’ll be an Opening Day starter. Right now the entire right side of the infield should be avoided.Even when Vizquel returns, at age 41, his clear-cut best asset is his defense, which you’re not likely to be rewarded for in any fantasy league. He had a good offensive season in 2006, but last year was another subpar year at the plate, hitting .246 with 4 home runs. He can still steal a few bases, but he even dipped in that department – going from 24 in ‘06 to 14 in ‘07. In an ideal world, Durham and Fransden would be platooning at 2B and Aurilia would be a utility infielder, but the Giants are severely lacking in the major league-ready infield talent department, and all three will likely have to start.

Deep sleepers who could benefit as a result of Vizquel’s injury freeing up an infield spot include: 25-year old Venezuelan superutility prospect Eugenio Velez and Justin Leone, a 31-year old, who annually posts 20+ HR totals and a modest batting average in AAA and could probably give teams league-average production at a much cheaper price than guys like Aurilia.

Tampa Bay Grays

Update: Rumors have surfaced that Tampa Bay is pursuing the possibility of offering a contract to free agent outfielder Barry Bonds. Thus far, this has been a quiet offseason for Bonds as the potential suitor list was dramatically reduced upon hearing his price tag along with potential perjury and obstruction of justice charges, to which Bonds has already pled not guilty. Nevertheless, The St. Petersburg Times is reporting the organization is having internal discussions whether or not they should seriously consider the 43-year old slugger, seven home runs removed of the all-time record and 65 hits short of 3,000. Manager Joe Maddon said he was unaware of the rumors and Andrew Freidman, VP of Operations, called it a “non-story.” Bonds himself has not yet commented on the situation.

The View: Considering Bonds’ prospects are limited, he might want to consider long and hard about joining the Rays, despite a history full of futility. The Rays may have emphasized a youth movement over the last half-decade, but have a history of overspending on the few veteran talents they attract. The Rays have undergone a minor rebuild this season, but it has pushed them closer to being a contender than ever. They already added 38-year old closer Troy Percival, 34-year old lefty specialist Trever Miller, and 35-year old outfielder Cliff Floyd to the major-league roster. They handed out minor-league deals to 38-year old catcher Mike DeFelice (who has a reasonable shot at winning the back-up job) and 35-year old pitcher Brian Anderson (who will compete for a bullpen spot)They also resigned 37-year old Al Reyes, expected to be Percival’s primary set-up man, giving the team their strongest veteran core in a long time and adding some more potential AARP members to the state of Florida.

So do the already aging Rays really even need Bonds?

Percival, Miller, and Reyes all fill voids and all address the team’s biggest problem: a 30th ranked bullpen of a year ago. They’re also low-key producers, good veteran leaders, and do not disrupt the clubhouse chemistry. The organization already cleaned its hands of two of its problem children this offseason, dealing Elijah Dukes to the Nationals and sending Delmon Young to the Twins. Carl Crawford has already come out and stated how the environment is much more positive and they have a stronger clubhouse chemistry than ever.

Assuming, Rocco Baldelli is and stays healthy (albeit, a pretty big assumption), the Rays have their starting outfield in place. They also already added Cliff Floyd as a veteran, power hitting 4th outfielder/designated hitter. They have a top prospect in outfielder Justin Ruggiano and two more pretty good ones in Wes Bankston and Fernando Perez and all could feasibly be major-league ready by the start of the season. They also have Jonny Gomes, who has shown good pop and is capable of handling both corner outfield positions. Bonds would just make a crowded outfield/DH competition more crowded. He should instantly assume the DH spot on a full-time basis (considering the money he’d likely get to sign), but that would move both Floyd and Gomes, who both possess a similar skill set, to the bench and force someone to either be traded or cut. Also, if anyone could completely restructure the clubhouse chemistry, it would be the game’s most-controversial figure and his recliner chair.

All things considered, the Rays could probably field a much better team spending the money they may offer Bonds elsewhere. It’s not always about fielding the best team, though. Bonds would sell tickets and that’s a quality they could desperately use. The team, while still not considered a serious contender, has surpassed the Orioles by a good margin and could field the most competitive team in its young history without Bonds. Adding Bonds would give them a veteran presence and experience needed in the heart of the lineup (much more so than Cliff Floyd could provide).

It’s far from a done deal, but considering Bonds’ potential suitor list should instantly be down to 14 before perjury charges and relative lack of interest shown this offseason, along the lack of other veteran power-hitting options on the market, and this could be the best move for both Bonds and the Rays. If they sign him and his playing time isn’t restricted due to legal issues, he would likely make Floyd (another lefty bat) obsolete and the only Gomes would have a small possibility of eating away at Bonds’ at-bats at DH. Bonds’ playing time has been limited by his aging body and the fact that he was a liability in left field, but both concerns would be significantly reduced if all he had to do is worry about hitting. He still has 30 HR potential, walks at a higher rate than any other hitter, and scores a reasonable amount of runs. As a DH, he has the best chance of reaching these numbers, and if a deal is struck, he should be considered as a mid-to-late round option for the utility/DH spot in fantasy league starting lineups.

Stairing Down & Towering Over the Competition

Update: The Blue Jays made the final touches on their 25-man Opening Day roster with some uninspiring choices to round out the big league club. Josh Towers, who posted a 2-10 record with an eyesore ERA of 8.42 in 12 starts last season pulled out the #5 starter spot over Victor Zambrano. Meanwhile, 39-year old Matt Stairs, who hit .247 with 13 HRs while splitting time between the Royals, Tigers, and Rangers in 2006, took home the fourth outfielder spot over super-prospect Adam Lind.

The View: Towers had a good spring, but at 30 years old as the owner of a career 4.89 ERA and a lifetime 40-45 record, there is no upside here. Victor Zambrano, who is the better starter in my mind, might just benefit from the move, though. Zambrano, who is still building up his endurance, would translate well as a future closer if he can cover his much-improved control and with a set-up man vacancy, he could make the first steps to a successful transition. He’ll have to fight off former closer Jason Frasor for the set-up man spot and a move back to the rotation isn’t out of the question by any means, but I like his value as a back-end reliever in AL-only or deeper leagues for the time being.

Stairs, regardless of the 4th outfield job, still has no fantasy value. He’s had old player skills since he reached the majors and now he’s actually an old player to go with it. His average is always shaky, he strikes out far too often, he won’t get many at-bats in a loaded lineup and he’s already blocked off at DH with Frank Thomas’ presence. He can still jack the ball out of the yard on occasion, but he’s more or less just keeping the spot warm for Adam Lind, when he is ready to push Reed Johnson for the starting LF job by mid-season, at which point, Stairs will likely be forced to find his fifth suitor since the start of the 2006 season.

Around the League

With all the roster moves and injury news that has occurred over the past few days, this news brief will touch upon all the top stories and their potential impact.

Update: Eric Gagne, much to the surprise of no one, will start the season on the 15-day DL as he continues to recover from back and elbow surgery. All reports state he should be ready to return by the end of April.

The View: Reports also said he’d be ready by Opening Day and you get the feeling seeing Gagne ever pitch again for an extended period of time is becoming more and more enigmatic. For all I know at this point, he could spend the whole season on the DL again. His velocity is way down and he wasn’t overwhelming anyone this spring. Akinori Otsuka now assumes the role of closer and sees his value skyrocket, and this should end any trade talks regarding Otsuka getting swapped for an OF.

Update: Dan Johnson, who collided with Yorvit Torrealba on the basepaths Monday, suffered some torn hip cartilage, which will keep him out up to three months. He’ll start the year on the 15-day DL, but it’s very possible he’ll need extra time to heal the damaged cartilage and even he could come back sooner, he’d be limited to a DH role.

The View: Johnson’s view was pretty low to begin with after flopping in his first full season as a potential starter. This shouldn’t have much long term effect on his ability to mash, but he was never a great first baseman to begin with and trading him when he’s healthy to serve as someone else’s DH seems more and more likely. With Mark Kotsay’s injury already forcing Nick Swisher into RF, the A’s may have to turn to Erubiel Durazo (no joke) to start at 1B on Opening Day.

Update: Carl Pavano is named Opening Day starter for the Yankees. He will be proceeded by Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Kei Igawa, and a 5th pitcher yet to be named.

The View: The only reason this should raise Pavano’s minimal value is because at least he is healthy enough to start and possibly the healthiest of all Yankee starters at this point. He’s still got durability issues and his long term health is anybody’s guess. He’s also got to prove 2004 wasn’t a fluke and he can handle AL hitting. Luckily he’ll get the Opening Day nod against the Devil Rays, so if you’re looking as if you’ll need a cheap win or two during the first week of the season because of injuries or 4-man rotations and whatnot, picking up Pavano wouldn’t be the worst idea.

Update: Kenny Rogers will start the day on the 15-day DL due to arm fatigue. Rumors are circulating that it could be a blood clot in his pitching arm.

The View: I’m not buying the rumors; the Tigers’ rotation was grossly overworked down the stretch last season, which I’ve said on here numerous times. Bonderman is a workhorse who can handle that type of load and Robertson is a light tosser who won’t wear himself out, but 41-year old Kenny Rogers and rookie Justin Verlander could definitely show some ill effects this season. Luckily for Rogers, assuming it is just arm fatigue, he should be up and running as normal after getting some rest.

Update: Alejandro De Aza wins the starting job in center field over Alex Sanchez and Eric Reed.

The View: De Aza, 22, looked like a seasoned pro all spring and while he may not be starter quality for a long period of time at this point of his career, he offers much more hitting upside than Reed and more of a spark than Sanchez. He’s got good speed on the base paths, carries a good glove, can hit for average, and even pinch hit; if all breaks well for De Aza, he could mirror Endy Chavez’s 2006 season and even have some back-end fantasy value for his speed.

Update: Twins name Carlos Silva the fifth starter over Matt Garza, who is optioned to AAA Rochester.

The View: As the Twins’ most coveted young, healthy arm, expect Garza’s stay in AAA to be a short one. Silva has been rocked all spring, doesn’t strikeout batters, and his best asset, his control, has faltered as of late. Between the low-upside Silva, the unreliable, waiting-to-implode Sidney Ponson, and the HR-allowing Ramon Ortiz, someone will get the boot early and Garza will likely be the go-to man.

Update: Royals name Zach Grienke their #3 starter behind Gil Meche and Odalis Perez and option Brian Bannister to AAA.

The View: Grienke is the perfect late-round sleeper pick at this point, seeing that this move has still attracted very little fanfare because it took place in Kansas City. It wasn’t very long ago that Grienke was considered arguably the best pitching prospect in all of baseball and had posted some promising numbers as a rookie on a very bad team. He since took a beating in 2005 and a tumultous 2006 kept him off the mound. If he can rediscover his talent and stick in the rotation, he has legitimate ace potential and some very intriguing late round value as of right now.

Update: The Cubs name Wade Miller their #5 starter while optioning Mark Prior to AAA and placing Kerry Wood on the 15-day DL.

The View: It’s nice to see Miller make his return to the big leagues and I think he should have some good #6 starter value on fantasy rosters, considering he had some pretty good success in the NL Central not too long ago and has a productive lineup behind him. Like Gagne, though, seeing Wood or Prior ever pitch again for a long period of time has become increasingly unlikely and for both, it’s a very tragic example of the great injury risks of pitchers. Both aren’t suffering any major injuries, but both still can’t seem to overcome their past injuries and will likely never be the same again. Storing Wood on the DL right now can’t hurt if you have the open spot, but I’d be sending Prior back to the waiver wire after the demotion.

Danks A Lot

Update: In a battle for the #5 spot in the White Sox rotation, which also including former super-prospect and recently acquired Gavin Floyd, knuckleballer Charlie Haeger, 2005 1st rounder Lance Broadway, and 6′8” 250 prospect Adam Russell, John Danks emerged victorious. Danks was acquired this offseason from the Rangers in the Brandon McCarthy deal and went 2-0 with a 4.32 ERA this spring. The lefthander, who was ranked the #1 prospect in the Rangers organization by Baseball America this offseason, went 9-9 with a 4.24 ERA between AA & AAA last season.

The View: Danks has progressed slower than expected. While he doesn’t look to be a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher anytime in the near future, he’s a good lefty with a strong arm, who can post very good strikeout rates. He was once expected to be an ace, but his ceiling tops out around a #2/#3 starter. He’s a wildcard in the five hole for the White Sox, who need an intriguing arm like this young lefty. The bar will be set low, especially considering he wasn’t overwhelming this spring, but he could be a nice strikeout contributor as a #5/#6 fantasy starter, and maybe even a little more valuable in AL-only leagues. As far as Gavin Floyd is concerned, after posting an 8.44 ERA this spring, his immediate future is still very murky. He’ll start the year in AAA and should Danks falter, he’d likely be next in line, but he’s not worth seriously scrutinizing at this stage.

Who Needs a Closah?

Update: The Red Sox have finally filled their void at closer internally, as Jonathan Papelbon, the starter-turned-closer-turned-starter-turned-closer-again agreed to return as the Red Sox ninth inning man. Papelbon was currently slotted in the #4 spot in the rotation, but with a well rounded group of starters and no legitimate closer, Papelbon agreed to take one for the team. Papelbon posted 35 saves with a sparkling 0.92 ERA as closer last season and has been lights out thus far in spring training. With Papelbon taking over at closer, Joel Pineiro, Brendan Donnelly, and the rest of the bullpen will return to their low-value set-up roles. Meanwhile long-reliver Julian Tavarez will temporarily take over the fifth spot in the rotation, until Jon Lester is ready to return.

The View: As a starter, Papelbon found himself as a mid-round draft pick, stuck behind three more reliable options on his team alone. Fantasy owners were straying away for the time being, not so much because they didn’t think Papelbon would have good value, but because they weren’t sure what type of value he would have. Now for those who selected Papelbon in the late rounds as a back-end starter get a tremendous value as he now returns to the ninth inning as a potential top 5 closer. The Red Sox rotation takes a slight hit, but it’s for the betterment of the staff, and Papelbon’s fantasy value and ADP will certainly skyrocket.

As for Joel Pineiro, whatever minor value he had as a bottom-tier closer with little job security has all but been eradicated, excluding the deepest of AL-only leagues. He did well in the pen last season, but without the potential for saves, his value plummets tremendously. Julian Tavarez was marginal as a spot-starter last season, but shouldn’t be viewed as a long-term solution to the #5 spot and his endurance will certainly be put to the test. He was tempting as a long reliever to eat up innings and pick up some good strikeout and hold totals, but he’s a lot less intriguing as a 33-year old starter, who has made six starts since 2003, averaging about five innings per start in that span. 

It’s (Almost) Miller Time

Update: Despite 14.0 shutout inngings in three starts and one relief appearances, in which he allowed only eight hits, struck out eight, and threw 67% of his pitches for strikes, Indians #1 ranked prospect, Adam Miller, is set to begin the season at Triple-A Buffalo. Despite a lights-out spring and an opening in the rotation due to Cliff Lee’s injury, the Indians are committed to progressing Miller gradually and giving him some more time to perfect his trade against minor league hitting.

The View: 23-year old Fausto Carmona, who is relatively much less intriguing with less upside, has all but secured the temporary #5 spot in the rotation until Lee is ready to return. Carmona has a good minor league track record, but was clearly outmatched in anything other than mop-up work last season, losing 10 games, blowing three saves, and giving up 88 hits in 74.2 IP. There’s room for improvement and he should do significantly better as a starter than a closer, but Miller is the prize prospect of the organization who has paid his dues in the minors, and at age 22, is major-league ready. Miller can dominate lefties, has a good mix of pitches, good durability and arm strength, and possesses above-average control for his age. Carmona is a safe pick, but Miller would have tremendously more value if he were inserted here. With Lee’s status still in question, Carmona’s ineffectiveness in 2006, and Paul Byrd’s borderline mediocrity, Miller could still crack this rotation at some point and could have instantaneous value, so keep an eye on him on the waiver wire.