Over/Under, Vol. 2

1. Over/Under: .333 Batting Average – Ichiro Suzuki

Over

With a .331 lifetime average, a .322 average in 2006, and a .298 post all-star break average last season, you would think .333 would be quite the hurdle for Ichiro in 2007. Nonetheless, Ichiro is still the best contact hitter in baseball, can put a ball in play as long as its anywhere near the strike zone, and can beat out more routine outs for base hits than anyone in baseball. Most importantly, Ichiro, who is still well into his peak at 33, enters a contract year, and knows topping .333 (and getting a hit once in at least every three at bats) combined with his superstardom status could land him one of the biggest paydays in baseball history. We all know he has batting practice power and he could start using more of it to showcase his all-around abilities, especially if the team is down and out as expected, and further boost his average rather than trying to leg out infield hits. He hit .358 with nobody on and nobody out last season, and that will likely make up a good portion of his ABs again in 2007. His .339 home average, the mediocre overall pitching talent of the AL West, and the fact that he’s already eclipsed the elusive .333 average twice in his young MLB career further enhance his potential to do it again in ‘07.

2. Over/Under: 22 Home Runs – Barry Bonds

Over

Whether or not the majority of baseball fans will want to see Bonds’ break Hank Aaron’s career Home Run mark in 2007, breaking the record appears to be imminent. Bonds will struggle to get a consistent number of plate appearances and will struggle even more to get a good number at at-bats with the number of free passes he will receive, but considering he’s much healthier than a year ago, he should get just as any chances as last season. Despite the slow start in 2006, he still beat out the mark of 22 HRs and finished with 12 HRs in the final two months of the season. He’s got a better lineup around him, and while his overall skills may continue to deteriorate, he still has hiw power. I expect Bonds to beat this number by a pretty wide margin, assuming no legal actions are taken that force him to miss some regular season action.

3. Over/Under: 25 Stolen Bases – Shane Victorino

Under

Victorino is getting consideration as a trendy, up-and-coming sleeper pick by many experts and it’s primarily because of his sensational speed. Unfortunately, he is one of the few guys whose speed on the basepaths and more notably in the field doesn’t translate into very many stolen bases. He’s only topped 25 SBs twice in his career (in A-ball in 2001 & in AA-ball in 2002), and since he’s progressed, his totals have continued to shrink. His SB success rate is good, not great, and was only 4-for-7 in 153 games as a back-up/pinch-runner last season. As a starter, he’ll get more opportunities and should easily improve upon that number, but based on his natural abilities and the fact that he’ll probably be in more hit-and-run situations at the bottom of the lineup, expecting him to nab 25 on the season is aiming a bit too high.

4. Over/Under: 200 Strikeouts – Matt Cain

Over

Cain has averaged at least 7.5 strikeouts (and usually much more) per nine innings at every significant stop of his career, and assuming he stays healthy and makes his same 32 starts again in 2007 and has improved upon his durability with a full-season workload under his belt, breaking the 200 strikeout mark shouldn’t be too difficult. Cain was kept on a short leash by the conservative Felipe Alou, but Bruce Bochy will likely keep him in games longer than Alou did and let him work well over 200 innings a la Jake Peavy in San Diego. Cain has some wicked stuff and very good velocity and before he tired out near season’s end, he was averaging well over 1 K/IP in the second half. Cain is still developing which is scary and has shown he can be a dominant pitcher when he’s on his game. Dominant pitchers rack up the strikeouts and with some good coaches helping him improve, his 179 strikeout total of a year ago should also significantly improve, and considering he averaged exactly 1 K/IP against divisional foes in ‘06, if he can top 200 innings, he certainly can top 200 Ks.

5. Over/Under: 36 Saves – Joe Borowski

Under

Borowski saved 36 games in 2006 for a Marlins club expected to the worst team in baseball. Borowski was coming off some significant injury problems, some ineffective stints as a Cub and a Devil Ray and got to salvage his career as a closer under close friend Joe Girardi. After reportedly failing a physical with the Phillies this offseason and signing with the Indians, with whom he has no close ties and will be on a much shorter leash on a competitive team, he will have the odds against him to match his save total of a year ago. Borowski topped 30 saves once before in his career, and how did he follow it up? By posting 9 saves and a 8.02 ERA the following year. Both Armando Benitez and Todd Jones recently put up stellar seasons as closer in Florida only to put up significantly less production elsewhere the following year. He’ll be in a much more competitive division with much better offensive opponents in a much more offensive-minded league with much more offensive-friendly ballparks. His ERA should rise and it could result in enough blown saves to get him yanked early. The Indians don’t have a good enough bullpen to get by with anything less than a lights out closer, which Borowski isn’t on his best day, so a midseason replacement to further limit his potential to match last season’s total is a very likely scenario as well.

Over/Under, Vol. 1

One variation of article I intend on utilizing is something I like to call “Over/Under.” Basically, I aim to take a number that will be highly debatable (and relevant to fantasy baseball) and determine to the best of my ability whether or not a given player (tandem, team, etc.) will or will not exceed said numerical value. For future articles, my over/under projections will most likely be exclusive to the upcoming month, week, etc., but being it’s only February, these will deal with season-long projections.

1. Over/Under: 60 Home Runs – Ryan Howard

Under

Howard should only continue to improve his batting eye and technique after his first full season, and while I think one day he will top 60 HRs, I don’t see it happening in 2007. Howard clobbered National League pitching right through September, with the majority of the damage done coming against his NL East rivals (29 HRs, 74 RBI), but with refining skills comes a sense of familiariy, from most notably, the NL East pitchers and pitching coaches, who will see the most of him this season. Of course, the great hitters adjust and Howard is a great hitter, and while I don’t expect a regression, I think he’ll have to make some adjustments to match his amazing production of a year ago. Another thing working against him is the increasing number of free passes he will receive (he was walked 31 times in 85 games before the All-Star break and 77 times in 75 games after). Without much protection behind him, he could continue to average one free pass a game (or more) in 2007, which could cost him almost 200 at-bats and hinder his chances of topping 60 HRs. The Braves and Marlins have both improved their pitching staffs, and while he should continue to clobber the Mets and Nationals, taking into less at-bats, more free passes, and a lack of protection behind him, I think Howard will top out at about 54-55 HRs in ‘07.

2. Over/Under: 130 RBI – Carlos Lee

Over

Remove Lee and Berkman from the heart of it, and the Astros may just have the worst lineup in all of baseball, offensively-speaking. Nevetheless, if Lee is plugged into the lineup behind Berkman, as planned, and if guys like Chris Burke (.276/.347/.418) and Luke Scott (.336/.426/.622) can hit half as well as they did last season, the top half of the lineup could be just potent enough to make up for the lack of production from the bottom part of the order. Not only will Lee get plenty of opportunities with men on base, he gets to do it in a hitter’s dream park, against the mediocre pitching staffs of the NL Central, and should improve upon an impressive .331 batting average with RISP of a year ago. Lee is too good to be labeled a niche player, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a player better suited to be strictly an RBI-machine. Lee has topped 110 RBIs three times in the last four years in lesser lineups, so there’s a good chance he could top 130 in ‘07, assuming Berkman doesn’t steal too many opportunities away.

3. Over/Under: 15 Wins – Daisuke Matsuzaka

Over

Dice-K has quite a few things going for him, even if he doesn’t live up to the hype. He’s an unknown commodity with nasty stuff, who should certainly baffle batters at least the first time around. He’s a savvy pitcher who can limit walks and use the Green Monster to his advantage. More importantly, he’s got one of the most potent lineups in baseball behind him. The questionable bullpen could cost him a few victories, but if Josh Beckett could win 16 games with a 5.01 ERA and giving up 36 longballs on a 3rd place team, then as long as Matsuzaka can be Hideo Nomo-lite in ‘07, 15 victories shouldn’t be too difficult. Consider the number of times he’ll face the Devil Rays and Orioles, and the fact that he’ll be matching up against opposing staff’s #3/#4 starters for the most part, and Matsuzaka’s rookie season should be a success.

4. Over/Under: 40 Saves – J.J. Putz

Under

We’ve seen relievers emerge from obscurity plenty of times before, but rarely have we seen one do it with a 104/13 K/BB ratio. Putz showed off some wicked stuff, along with an unsuspected amount of poise. He garnered 36 saves for the last-place Mariners, despite not officially taking over at closer until May. He dominated lefties and righties, home and away, and didn’t hit a snare all season long. Can he top his unbelievable 2006 campaign? It’s unlikely, but as close as you’ll get to a white K-Rod, Putz doesn’t look like a flash in the pan. Hitters will inevitably catch up with his stuff at some point and without a dominant 8th inning guy like Rafael Soriano in front of him, he could be facing a significantly less number of save opportunities. It doesn’t help much that the Angels and Rangers tuned up their lineup and the Mariners should once again be in the cellar.

5. Over/Under: 5.00 ERA – Washington Nationals’ Pitching Staff

Over

The Nationals have John Patterson (that’s right the same John Patterson, who holds a career 17-20 record with a lifetime 4.09 ERA) penciled in as the ace. Patterson, who is a smart pitcher with good stuff, has shown flashes of brilliance, but is he an ace? Absolutely not. Will he hold his own? Quite possibly, but matching up against the best pitchers in the NL won’t bode well, nor will having to face the potent lineups of the NL East. Sadly enough, behind Patterson, the Nats have four wide-open spots in the bullpen, likely to be handed out to inexperienced rookies and marginal retreads. The Nats had a team ERA of 5.03 last season, but with the staff only getting worse and likely to lose All-star closer Chad Cordero via trade at some point, this may be the worst pitching staff from top-to-bottom in all of baseball. They’ll face some tough offenses and they could improve as the season goes on, but without any continuity in the rotation as well as a bullpen stalwart, this pitching staff could even flirt with a 6.00 team ERA.