Sleepers & Busts: NL East Edition

Atlanta Braves
Surprise: Matt Diaz
Diaz spent the first five years of his career as an underappreciated farmhand for the Rays, then spent a year in Kansas City where they tried converting him to catcher, before joining the Braves and spending the last two years as one of the best platoon hitters in baseball. He’s hit for average at every stop in the majors (.320 lifetime average) and minors (.315 lifetime average), but this will be his first opportunity as a full-time starter. Unlike most platooners, he can hit both lefties (.356 in 2007) and righties (.318 in 2007), and really doesn’t have any holes in his swing. His power is mediocre, but in a full season, could make a run at 20 HRs and has underrated speed. He may only do everything else average, but he can slap singles better than just about anyone else in the NL and though he seems to be stuck with the platoon tag, he could surprise a lot of people by hitting .300+ with some pop in his first full-season workload.

Sleeper: Yunel Escobar
There’s not much left for me to say about Escobar that I haven’t already said in about five other articles, but when you consider the environment he’ll be playing, his hitting talents, his low ADP, and the fact that he carries three infield position flexibility, he might be the most undervalued player going into the season. He hit .326-5-28-5, walked 27 times to only 44 strikeouts, and scored 54 runs in just over a half-season’s work. The Havana, Cuba native joined the Braves at age 22 and only played 223 minor league games before his call-up. His power is still developing and with his 6’2’’ 200 lb. frame, he could be a 15-20 HR hitter in due time. He’s already got a great betting eye, good speed, and game-changing abilities, and he’ll get every opportunity to flaunt them on a full-season basis this year as the starting shortstop atop of a productive lineup.

Deep Sleeper: Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens, who came over from Detroit with only 30.2 IP in his career above AA, is now the favorite for the 5^th rotation spot with a strong spring and Mike Hampton likely to open the season on the DL. Jurrjens allowed only one run in his first nine innings of work this spring and is building off a solid 2007 season in which he went 7-5 with a 3.20 ERA in 19 AA starts and held his own in his major-league debut as a 21-year old last season, going 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA in 7 starts. He’s got above-average command of his pitches and though he only struck out 13 in 30.2 major league innings last year, he was a near 1 K/IP strikeout pitcher in the minors. He doesn’t have tremendous upside, but he’s pretty developed for a 22-year old with limited high-minors experience and could have a quietly solid season with a chance to win a good number of games with average peripherals and an impressive home run allowed rate.

Bust: Tom Glavine
Glavine’s season-ending numbers look pretty good on paper: 13 wins, 4.45 ERA, 1.41 WHIP. Then, when you consider he only struck out 89 in 200.1 IP of work and had a BAA of .281 (the third-worst in his 21-year career) as a result of declining velocity, it’s hard to imagine him duplicating last year’s numbers without a good amount of luck. He returns to the Braves, who probably won’t get him the 5.21 runs per start the Mets got him last year or the .277 BABIP (as a result of very good defense), so he’ll probably have to pitch better than he did a year ago, which is asking a lot from a 42-year old. It’s also asking a lot from a pitcher who looked like he started to wear down in June before completely collapsing at the end of the season. Glavine’s ERA only jumped slightly in the second half of the season, but his BAA was 28 points higher and only struck out 36 in 84.0 IP and had a 6.10 ERA in September.

Sleepers & Busts: AL West Edition

Los Angeles Angels
Surprise: Juan Rivera
Rivera’s 2008 prospects look a little gloomy buried on the depth chart and coming off of a .279-2-8 line in 2007. People forget that prior to breaking his leg in winter ball last year, he hit .310-23-85 primarily as a back-up for the Angels and was on the verge of cracking the starting lineup with them or somewhere else via trade. He might be the best back-up OF in baseball, but his value diminished with the signing of Torii Hunter. He’ll be squeezed for at-bats for now, but if an injury strikes or he’s dealt (both probable), he could crack the starting lineup and produce a similar line to his breakout 2006 season

Sleeper: Kendry Morales
One reason the Angels didn’t go shopping for a first baseman this season other Casey Kotchman’s breakout is because they have Morales waiting in the wings. He’s a 24-year old, 6’2’’ 225 masher with power to spare, surprisingly good contact-hitting abilities, and is well beyond his years in terms of polish. He’s got a smooth swing and he’s good enough in the field to not be a liability. He also picked up some time in right field and if he makes the roster, could pick up 1B/OF elibigility by midseason. He hit .324-21-82 and .391-9-42 in his two seasons in Cuba as a 19 & 20 year old and has hit .320-12-52 and .341-5-37 in AAA in parts of the last two seasons. He’s got a career 2:1 K: rate in his career and has hit at every stop. He’s ready to play everyday, he just needs an extended opportunity. It could come sooner than people think with Kotchman nursing a shin injury and possibly starting on the DL while Morales is hitting .375 with 2 HRs and 6 RBIs this spring.

Deep Sleeper: Justin Speier
Despite missing two full months last year as a result of flu-like symptoms and getting bombed in August after making his return (14.1 IP, 3 HRA, 6.28 ERA), he still finished with top-20 mid-relief numbers. He made 51 relief appearance (his seventh straight year of 50+ games), posted a 2.88 ERA (his third straight sub-3.00 ERA), recorded 24 holds, maintained a 4:1 K:BB rate, and had a sub-1.00 WHIP (0.96). He’s in a great bullpen on a team that wins plenty of close games, giving him ample opportunities to rack up holds. The team is also partial to him as their 7^th inning man (as seen by his 51 appearances is just over half of a season last year) and he thrives in the lower-pressured middle innings. He’ll get plenty of work, has no injury track record, and is a good source of holds and strikeouts, and assuming he doesn’t catch the flu again, he’s a potential top-10 non-closer amongst eligible RPs.

Bust: Maicer Izturis
The idea behind dealing Orlando Cabrera was that Izturis would pick up where he left off. Izturis is clearly better than a bench player with a good glove and hitting .293-5-44 and .289-6-51 in the last two seasons, but whether he’s meant to be a full-time starter or a utility player is still yet to be determined. He’s got everything you’d look for in a platoon/utility role, hitting for average, playing good defense, and flashing some speed, the question is if his bat would hold up for a full-season. The Angels are apparently pretty concerned about that, and as a result, it looks like Izturis could be platooning with the more offensive-minded Erick Aybar. Izturis could be a valuable fantasy bench player, but now that the position battle is looking like a future timeshare, you can cross off any expectations of him duplicating Cabrera’s success of a year ago.

Sleepers & Busts: AL Central Edition

Chicago White Sox
Surprise: Octavio Dotel
Dotel’s last three campaigns have been ruined by injury so it’s hard to set the bar high in 2008, regardless of how favorable his surroundings are. Nonetheless, 2007 was a rebound year for Dotel, who returned to form and looked good enough as the Royals’ closer to earn a trade to the Braves. After the trade he was hampered again by injuries and struggled with the league change, but all in all, 2007 was a success, throwing nearly as many innings as he did in 2005 and 2006 combined and posting an impressive 41/12 K/BB rate. Now, joining a deep White Sox bullpen, he can go back to the role he thrived in as a fantasy stalwart in Houston, as a 6^th/7^th, multi-inning reliever and occasional save vulture. It all depends on his health and since he has no injury concerns as of the moment, he projects as a good source of holds and strikeouts from a mid-relief roster spot.

Sleeper: Alexei Ramirez
A former Cuban All-star and the most recent prominent defector, the 27-year old Ramirez is a versatile fielder and hitter. The White Sox gave him a multi-million dollar contract and though he may start in the minors, all intentions are for him to be a long-term solution at 2B. He comes over from Cuba after leading the league with 20 HRs and hitting .335 last season. In six seasons, he was a career .334 hitter, showing a good power stroke, and adequate speed. He only stole 44 bases in his career, but with a 48% caught stealing rate in Cuba, he translates into a potential 10-15 SB guy in the U.S. He’s hitting .375 with 8 RBIs this spring and the only thing keeping him from a starting job is his defense. He’s still learning 2B, but is already adept at SS and CF, so he could even find a role as a back-up rather than open in AAA. Eventually, though, he will get a chance to start at one of the aforementioned positions and should be at least an above-average middle infielder offensively in due time.

Deep Sleeper: Jerry Owens
Through a series of injuries last season, opportunities emerged in the outfield and Owens was the prospect who seized them the most. He got the call-up in June and showed good development as a hitter and base runner. He also held his own defensively and could project as a future leadoff hitter. He’ll be stuck on the bench for now, but with three subpar fielders starting in the outfield and a lineup lacking a true leadoff hitter, he should get plenty at-bats from the bench. He hit .267 in 93 games last year, but more importantly scored 44 runs and stole 32 bases in 40 attempts. He could put Dave Roberts-esque production in the immediate future and has a slightly higher ceiling. At worst, he’ll be a one-dimensional base stealer type with a modest batting average, which always has some fantasy value.

Bust: Carlos Quentin
Quentin has been considered a top prospect or a deep sleeper since his professional career started, and though he has all the tools to be a successful power hitter in the league, he still hasn’t put it all together. His primary problems have been his penchant for striking out and inability to adapt to major-league pitching and shoulder injuries. His shoulder is still sore and it has limited him to about a dozen at-bats this spring. He’s also now forced to switch leagues and learn a new position on the fly and it could affect his ability to focus on his hitting. He’s projected as the starter in left field, but his shoulder still isn’t 100% and it’s likely he could open the year on the DL. He went from 9 HRs in 166 at-bats in 2006 to 5 HRs in 229 at-bats last year. He has the potential, but he may have been slightly overvalued, hitting predominantly in hitter-friendly minor-league parks and the shoulder concerns could set him back further. Jerry Owens is better defensively and better compliments a power-laden lineup, so a platoon or timeshare could further limit his numbers even if he’s healthy all season.

Sleepers & Busts: AL East Edition

One of the most utilized tools for fantasy draft strategy is targeting the players most likely to exceed their current status and expectations. Accurately determining which players are the year’s “sleepers” or “surprises” can pay dividends over the course of a season, allowing you to draft the top players early on and be able to land above-average production later on in a draft while most are merely sifting through waiver wire fodder. Sleepers and surprise players maximize their draft value, give you some wiggle room when it comes to the margin of error on your early selections, and can make for useful bench players when injuries strike or as trade bait to address weaknesses.

Equally as productive as nabbing late-round draft “steals,” is being able to avoid the players on the verge of collapse, attrition, regression, or an injury-plagued season. While injuries are almost impossible to predict, there are always a number of players who get over-hyped or drafted earlier than they should who won’t live up to expectations. They don’t necessarily have to be players coming off great seasons; they can often be confused as sleepers, players who are getting optimistic reviews, returning from injury or earning the “superprospect” label.

Last year, for instance, Alex Gordon was a top prospect and considered a solid sleeper at 3B. He never had a great major-league season before so he had no reputation to uphold, but he was still a bust nonetheless. Owners reached on him much earlier than prospects usually go and as a result they were forced to deal with his rookie struggles rather than targeting a productive veteran who would usually go in his place. Considering the flexibility of the term, “busts” come in all shapes and sizes – established veterans, players coming off career years, rookies, prospects, imports – and all hurt your team by preventing you to take someone better worth the value of that particular draft pick (whichever round it was used in).

Before my team-by-team analyses of this year’s surprises, sleepers, deep sleepers, and busts, it is worth noting my definition of the following terms to prevent the article from being misinterpreted. There are no rigid definitions for any of the aforementioned terms, so as a result, they’re often used rather broadly and often encompass a vast majority of players who usually have nothing in common. To better distinguish my predictions, please note that I consider a “sleeper” is a player, usually not established as a major-leaguer, who could provide starter-quality numbers (or better) despite a lack of publicity, a low ADP (average draft position), and general expectations below league-average production. A “deep sleeper” to me is the same definition but to a greater extreme, the odds of panning out are significantly greater. A “surprise” pick is a player who I consider likely to significantly improve upon last year’s stats and surprise owners with a noticeable boost in production (for a variety of reasons). Finally, to me, a “bust” is a player who will simply disappoint. They might put up better numbers than they did last year, but they aren’t likely to live up to their hype, ADP, or expected production. That said, here are this year’s team-by-team surprise, sleeper, deep sleeper, and bust picks: