Boom or Bust: NL Edition

We continue with the second half of this year’s top half-dozen boom or bust fantasy options – the guys who are as likely to explode as they are implode. When perusing through the list, keep in mind one thing – the exclusivity of each player’s circumstances. Each one of these players has a high ceiling and a low basement, but each one also has a very unique story. We already saw the top-ranked minor-league position player of the early part of this decade go from potential roster casualty to a 2nd round fantasy pick. We also saw a pitcher who was the surefire rookie of the year in 2006 before an arm injury cost him the award and all of last season and we also saw a former #1 overall pick return to baseball after missing three full seasons due to drug abuse and off-the-field problems.

The stories are equally as interesting in the National League as we’ll take a look at a 26-year old pitcher who broke out in 2004 and was considered one of the best young lefties in the game before imploding in back-to-back seasons and returning to dominance in 2007. We’ll also look at a former top pitching prospect who suffered an eternal meltdown, lost his control, nearly retired from baseball, and returned as a power-hitting outfielder, and finally, a 33-year old rookie.

National League East: Oliver Perez, SP, New York Mets

Boom: On talent alone, Perez could be an ace. He’s crafty, has a great mix of pitches, has very good lefty/righty splits, can be virtually unhittable when he’s on his game, and has the ability to strikeout 200+ hitters on a yearly basis. Since leaving the moribund Pirates, he has worked closely with Mets’ pitching coach Rick Peterson and rediscovered the mechanics and success that made him one of the game’s most promising young pitchers in 2004, when he went 12-10 with a 2.98 ERA and striking out 239 batters. Last season, after a three-year hiatus, he returned to fantasy stud status, going 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA and striking out 174 in 177.0 IP. He should continue to thrive in a pitcher’s park, under Peterson’s tutelage, with the same great offense behind him, and minimal pressure as the #3 starter. Perez struggled a bit down the stretch last year (as the entire team collapsed), but despite whispers of him being a headcase, he was generally solid all year long, against righties and lefties, and at home and on the road. Assuming he continues his maturation in this friendly environment, he could be a very cheap and effective #3 fantasy starter while average more than 1 K/IP. He’s still only 26 and even when he struggles he’s a productive lefty, always averaging around one strikeout per inning.

Bust: 2007 was Perez’s best season since 2002. Perez followed up his 2002 campaign by going 7-5 with a 5.85 ERA in 2003, despite being under the same circumstances. He’s shown goog consistency within a given year, but usually he’s consistently getting rocked. In three of the last five seasons, his ERA has been above 5.50 and he’s allowed at least 20 HRs in every full season as a starter. He’s been unable to keep his mechanics under control for extended periods of time and his delivery raises some concerns. He has the propensity to implode at any time and he still struggles with his control. His ERA rose nearly a full run in the second half of the season and his BAA jumped from .207 to .254 after his luck on balls put in play gradually declined. He has electric stuff and ace potential, but he’s still a very risky proposition and can’t be trusted as a top-of-the-line fantasy starter. Considering he’s never put together back-to-back above-average fantasy seasons, he may have more upside than Ervin Santana, but he’s equally as combustible.

Verdict: Despite the criticism the Pirates organization has faced over the last decade, they’ve always seemed to manage their young pitchers well, so it’s hard to blame them for Perez’s implosion. The fact is, Perez is ubertalented, but his talent and potential stardom in the past clearly outweighed his lack of experience. He’s made very good strides as a Met and is learning to harness his talented arm and velocity. He could just as easily improve upon last year’s peripherals and become a top-of-the-line fantasy starter as easily as he could implode again, and for that reason, despite the fact that I think he’s more likely to do the former, I wouldn’t risk drafting him any higher than as a #4 fantasy starter.

Boom or Bust: AL Edition

This year I have often talked about “risky” players, guys like Barry Bonds, Evan Longoria, and Kerry Wood, but while they are risky, the risk involved isn’t one likely to seriously jeopardize your team. The players this article will focus on, one from each division, are the risky players who have the market value to actually damage your team if they aren’t worth the risk. These players can as easily be labeled “sleepers” as they could “disappointments.” They’re the ultimate boom-or-bust picks – the type of players who will tend to get drafted higher on potential than actual production, or the type of guys to fall a bit further than a player with similar production the year before would, because of a lack of track record or more red flags. They have the high-ceiling talent that can make you look like a genius for drafting or acquiring them and they have the low basement that can ruin your team if the risks outweigh the rewards.

So, if you feel you’ve put together a solid team this year, but feel you’re still lacking that one piece to put you over the edge, you might want to take a gamble on one of these six high-risk, high-reward players, who could end up paying huge dividends. First, the American League “boom-or-bust” picks for 2008:

American League East: B.J. Upton, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Boom: Upton was the #2 overall pick in the 2002 draft and was considered the top-hitting prospect for much of the early part of his career. He plowed through lower levels of the minors exuding 20-20 potential, despite still being underaged and very raw. He hit a snag in AAA and struggled early on the majors, but it was because he was still so raw. Last season, as he began to refine his skills, he made an instant impact, hitting .300 with 24 HRs, 82 RBIs, and stealing 22 bases. He’ll move to centerfield, where he’ll no longer have to wory about his defense jeopardizing playing time or focus on offense, and he’ll be in the heart of a very productive lineup. He has 30 HR potential, but his speed may be his best asset (as seen by perennial 40+ SB totals in the minors). He’s still only 23 years old and his five-tool talents could have him on the precipice of a monster season, with his potential.

Bust: Upton has plenty of potential, as despite refining his skills last year, he’s still very raw. He’ll be forced to learn a new position in centerfield this year and it could take away from his focus at the plate. He has an awful batting eye and was lucky to hit .300 last year, despite 154 strikeouts to only 65 walks. His batting dropped 35 points from the first half (.320) to the second half (.285) last year, and he hit  .270 and .244 in August and September, respectively.  He’s the type of hitter who can give you power and speed, but his average will eventually regress. He’s shown the ability to struggle long-term against quality pitching and if he doesn’t improve his batting eye, he might just wind up being a flashier version of Mike Cameron this year.

Verdict: Upton is the real deal. Is he a .300 hitter? Probably not, but he should be able to maintain an average in the .270-.280 range. He’s very risky, especially considering he’s gone in the second round of some drafts, but if you can land him at 2B, you should be pretty set. He might not reach 30 HRs this year, but another 20-20 season should be in store for fantasy owners.

Average Draft Position Report, March 2008

One way to prep for a draft is to target the players you want in advance and the round you expect to take them in, and the best way to do it is to know when each player is most likely to come off the board. An Average Draft Position Report gives you the data needed to do this successfully, including each player’s average draft slot, and the earliest and latest they’ve gone in any draft. Of course, each website’s ADP rankings will be exclusive to their website, as the default rankings on any website will greatly influence the ADP report, as well will the type of league. The following ADP report is based on the data from Mockdraftcentral.com using all draft results from standard 5×5 leagues over the past week. I’ll break it down by position and pick out the ones I found most surprising. It is worth noting that a standard league will usually consist of 12 teams with 23 man rosters, so the total number of picks would be 276 in a given draft.

Catcher

Highest Rated: Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
Average Draft Position: 29.27 (mid 3rd round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 22/38
Comments: Martinez has been doing battle with Russell Martin this preseason for the #1 fantasy catcher spot, but according to the ADP Report, he’s got a slight lead on him (Martin’s ADP is currently 31.08). This really shouldn’t come as a surprise considering Martinez is the better power hitter, drives in more runs, and has been putting up elite production from the catcher position a little bit longer than Martin has.

Surprisingly High: Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners
Average Draft Position: 124.08 (10th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 96/147
Comments: Most people would agree that there are five elite catchers this season (Martinez, Martin, Mauer, McCann, and Posada) and that if you don’t land one of them, you can wait until the latter stages of the draft to fill the position. Johjima is ranked as the 6th best catcher on the ADP and I have no qualms with that, but he is going, on average, 28 picks (approximately 2 1/2 rounds) before the #7 ranked catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Johjima is a good hitter and has shown good consistency in both his pro seasons, but there really shouldn’t be that much urgency expressed in landing Johjima after the top five are gone; he’s good, but he’s not that much better than the other top catchers still on the board.

Surprisingly Low: Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles
Average Draft Position: 254.96 (22nd round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 174/Undrafted
Comments: Hernandez is currently the fourteenth ranked catcher and that’s not too hard to believe since he hit .258-9-62 last year, but it’s a bit surprising a player with his offensive upside, despite coming off a down year, would be drafted behind an aging Jason Varitek, low upside A.J. Pierzynski, and a relative unknown in J.R. Towles. It was only two years ago that Hernandez hit .275-23-91 and was considered an up-and-coming talent at the position. He struggled with injuries last year, but he’s bulked up and is back at full strength for 2008 and has more upside than most of the catchers immediately listed ahead of him, despite sharing relatively equal injury risks.

One-Man Mock Draft: March 2008

Sometime before my most important mock drafts and the start of the regular season, I like to host my own mock draft, in which I will make all the selections. I also like to reproduce the experiment on a monthly basis, which I find to be a useful tool for a multitude of reasons. It’s a good way to prep for future mock drafts, it’s a good way to formulate your own cheat sheets and rankings, and it shows which player’s values have fluctuated and how far they’ve fluctuated (at least in your own mind). It’s a good way to gauge the values between similar players and players of the same position and it can assist in assessing trade offers. Obviously, the results are highly subjective and may not closely reflect actual mock draft results, but it provides a good foundation to draft strategy and is a useful system to ensure you don’t overlook any players when it comes time for your real draft.

Before posting the results and recap of my own one-man mock draft, it is worth noting the criterion for the league in which I was drafting. The league settings employed are as follows: 12 teams, 24-man rosters (9-man starting lineup with flex/utility spot, 5-man starting rotation, 3 relief spots, 2 flex pitching spots, and 5 total bench spots), 6 x 6 head-to-head scoring (Hitting: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OPS; Pitching: W, K, SV, HLD, ERA, WHIP), and a mixed-league draft pool.

Round 1:
1. Team 1: Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY
2. Team 2: Hanley Ramirez, SS, FL
3. Team 3: David Wright, 3B, NYM
4. Team 4: Matt Holliday, OF, COL
5. Team 5: Jose Reyes, SS, NYM
6. Team 6: Miguel Cabrera, 3B, DET
7. Team 7: Chase Utley, 2B, PHI
8. Team 8: Albert Pujols, 1B, STL
9. Team 9: Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI
10. Team 10: Johan Santana, SP, NYM
11. Team 11: Jimmy Rollins, SS, PHI
12. Team 12: Alfonso Soriano, OF, CHC

Last year’s consensus #1 overall pick, Pujols drops to the mid-to-late first round this year partially because his line of .327-32-103 last season was arguably his worst pro season. More importantly, he has a torn ligament in his right elbow that will eventually require surgery. According to Pujols, it hasn’t effected his swing and he doesn’t plan to undergo surgery anytime soon. He’s hit 4 HRs already this spring, but if the Cardinals are out of contention by June or July and Pujols is in pain, they could opt to shut him down and have him undergo surgery so that he’s 100% for 2009.

Weekend Mock Drafts

I participated in three weekend mockdrafts on Saturday morning/afternoon on mockdraftcentral.com. Perhaps it’s because the rankings there are a little more subjective than on Yahoo!, but I noticed there were a lot of solid contributors in 2006 that were still hanging around late in the draft. Even in larger leagues, I still felt like I was able to put together better all-around squads than I could even in a standard Yahoo! league. I’ll simply post the two teams I ended up with, the strategies I used, and some observations I made during the drafts.

Note: The main focus of posting these drafts isn’t to showcase my teams, but to show how particular strategies can be utilized, which strategies are optimal this season, and to uncover some valuable trends and notes through my observations that can hopefully be utilized in future drafts.

Draft #1
League Settings: 14 teams, 23 man rosters, standard 5 x 5 scoring

My Team (Round:Pick)

C: Joe Mauer (2:13)
1B: Lyle Overbay (8:13)
2B: Robinson Cano (4:13)
SS: Jose Reyes (1:2)
3B: Aramis Ramirez (3:2)
OF: Eric Byrnes (10:13)
OF: Moises Alou (14:13)
OF: Chris B. Young (16:13)
DH: Shea Hillenbrand (17:2)
BN: Conor Jackson (15:2)
BN: Luke Scott (19:2)
BN: Yuniesky Betancourt (22:13)

SP: John Smoltz (5:2)
SP: Aaron Harang (6:13)
SP: Felix Hernandez (7:2)
SP: Matt Cain (9:2)
SP: Adam Wainwright (12:13)
RP: Francisco Cordero (11:2)
RP: Jason Isringhausen (13:2)
RP: Armando Benitez (18:13)
RP: Ryan Dempster (21:2)
BN: Chuck James (20:13)
BN: Daniel Cabrera (23:2)

Favorite Pick: Felix Hernandez, Round 7 – Even if he makes no progress this season, which is just baout impossible, this is still a good value. King Felix as your #3 starter is an absolute steal.

Least Favorite Pick: Aramis Ramirez, Round 3 – Not that I think Ramirez won’t be worth a 3rd round pick, but I could’ve picked up Ryan Zimmerman two full rounds later.

Strategy: This was my first ever draft on mockdraftcentral.com and I wasn’t too familiar with some of the trends on the website, so this was more of a feeling-out process. As you’ll see later on, I will take some of the same players, in noticably later rounds as I caught on. The basic strategy here, other than to familiarize myself with the site so I could have optimal success in future drafts, was to put together a good infield and a solid, unlgamorous, deep pitching staff without committing too many early picks into it. I was willing to test the depth of the outfield and to load up on back-end closers late in the draft.

How It Worked Out: I was able to piece together a great infield early on and was still able to land Lyle Overbay in the 8th round to solidfy it. I didn’t draft an outfielder until the 10th round, but still managed to get a 25/25 guy, a ROY favorite, and Moises Alou, who despite his age, is coming off a .300/20 HR campaign and enters a much better situation. The bench is pretty weak, I think I lost focus of it in the mid-to-late rounds while stockpiling pitching, but that can always be fixed off of the waiver wire. The closers aren’t pretty, but when you land four closers in a 14-team league, all of which, whose positions are secure for the time being and expected to be on competitive squads, you really can’t complain.

I didn’t take a pitcher until round 5 since there is such a superfluous amount of good second-tier starters that taking any of them earlier than the 5th would risk missing out on good hitters for no good reason. Smoltz is a little risky as an ace, but he’s been lights out over the last two seasons, and I gave him a phenomenal supporting cast, chock full of young, power arms capable of racking up strikeouts and winning double-digit games.

Observations

Round 2: Justin Morneau fell to 2:10 in this draft, after the likes of Ichiro, Jimmy Rollins, and Vernon Wells, all of which are premier talents, but should not have gone before Morneau, when other pure power hitters like Matt Holliday, Travis Hafner, and Mark Teixeira went earlier.

Round 5: Ryan Zimmerman is selected at 5:6, which I consider to be an absolute steal. I took Smoltz at 5:2 because I had yet to take a pitcher, but had I known Zimmerman was still on the board here, I might’ve taken him anyway. Scott Rolen went earlier at 5:3 and Garrett Atkins somewher in the 4th round, which just exemplifies the pure value of this pick.

Round 9: Starting pitchers selected include: Brett Myers, Matt Cain, A.J. Burnett, Rich Harden, and Cole Hamels – which means you can still land a #2 starter with ace potential in the middle rounds, which is why I showed no sense of urgency with my starters.

Rounds 12-14: Catchers selected include: Kenji Johjima, Mike Piazza, Michael Barrett, A.J. Pierzynski, and Russell Martin. I didn’t realize they’d fall this far. Yeah, I’ll capitalize on this in the next draft.

Round 17: Roger Clemens is selected at 17:8. I noticed he fell much further than I ever anticipated, after seeing him constantly go within the first 12 rounds on Yahoo! I’ve personally avoided him in every draft, but I was almost tempted this late in the draft.

Round 19-21: Durable, average-productivity, innings-eaters are still on the board here, with the selections including: Freddy Garcia, Jake Westbrook, Greg Maddux, Ted Lilly, Doug Davis, Jeff Suppan, and Kenny Rogers. Further exemplyifing why there should be no sense of urgency to address starting pitching after the top 10 are off the board.

Round 23: Mike Gonzalez and Justin Duchscherer, with the second-to-last pick in the draft no less, are taken here, and are both very productive in their current set-up man roles, and are closers waiting-in-the-wings with the current closer having dealt with injuries in the recent past. I’ll capitalize on this later myself, but I was too focused on stockpiling closers without the advantage of having Holds as a stat.

Draft #2
League Settings: 12 teams, 25 man rosters, standard 5 x 5 scoring

My Team (Round: Pick)

C: Michael Barrett (13:8)
1B: Justin Morneau (3:8)
2B: Robinson Cano (6:5)
SS: Carlos Guillen (5:8)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1:8)
OF: Lance Berkman (2:5)
OF: Raul Ibanez (10:5)
OF: Eric Byrnes (12:5)
DH: Dave Roberts (15:8)
BN: Edwin Encarnacion (17:8)
BN: Chris Burke (20:5)
BN: Conor Jackson (21:8)
BN: Corey Hart (24:5)

SP: Carlos Zambrano (4:5)
SP: Ben Sheets (7:8)
SP: Jeremy Bonderman (8:5)
SP: Scott Kazmir (9:8)
SP: Ervin Santana (14:5)
RP: Brad Lidge (11:8)
RP: Joe Borowski (16:5)
RP: Salomon Torres (18:5)
RP: Scot Shields (22:5)
BN: Kevin Millwood (19:8)
BN: Yovani Gallardo (23:8)
BN: Joel Pineiro (25:8)

Favorite Pick: Justin Morneau, Round 3 – I just can’t quite figure out why a guy like Morneau, who is a 25-year old former top prospect, reigning AL MVP, who put up monster numbers both pre and post all-star break, home and away, vs. lefties and righties and is the ideal power hitter, can fall to 32nd overall. Stealing Morneau in the third solidified my offense with three bonafide mashers and allowed me to focus elsewhere.

Least Favorite Pick: Brad Lidge, Round 11 – Lidge in the 11th isn’t a terrible selection, but having to rely on Lidge as my #1 closer just might be my worst decision of the draft. He’s still getting pounded on this spring and despite all-around productivity, he’s been an inconsistent head case since the 2005 NLCS, and shouldn’t be relied on as a #1 closer, especially in a 12-team league.

Strategy: I had the same base strategy as the first draft, but with a more defined plan. Again, I wanted to piece together a top-notch infield right off the bat and a modest OF to complement. My one goal was to see how it would work out if I landed a top-10 starter (which I did), and I planned to team him up with more young, strikeout-happy arms in the mid-to-late rounds (which I also did). I also wanted to improve upon the bullpen compared to my last draft, whether or not I actually did is up for debate.

How It Worked Out: After getting the acquainting process out of the way in the last draft, I had a good idea of guys I could target in the middle rounds as very good values. Naturally, I would’ve jumped on a guy like Robinson Cano, Justin Morneau, or Michael Barrett a full round earlier, but I stuck with the trends and still picked them up later than I would’ve expected. Similar to the first draft, I wrapped up my infield first (excluding Michael Barrett at catcher, who was still around in the 13th), and with Berkman heading my outfield, I polished off the rest of the offense later than I usually would. Still, after Berkman, I drafted five OF-eligible players from the 10th round on, including the same 25/25 guy from last draft (Eric Byrnes), Raul Ibanez (coming off of a 33 HR campaign), Dave Roberts (a legit base stealer), and two intriguing young hitters in Chris Burke and Corey Hart – enough talent to not make OF a liability.

Also, like the first draft, after landing a stud ace in Zambrano, I waited until the middle rounds and hording good, young power arms to complement him. I had enough depth and talent at starting pitcher, that I was able to take a flier on super-prospect Yovani Gallardo in the final stages. I may not have upgraded the bullpen compared to the first draft, but I again got four tentatie closers, three of which will be on very competitive squads. They’re not glamorous, but I would hope at least two of them (which two I don’t know) should pan out and rack up some saves.

Observations

Round 1: Johan Santana fell to 11th overall, which is the lowest I’ve seen him go in a draft this year. I was tempted myself to take him at 8th, knowing a hitter of similar caliber to Miguel Cabrera would be available in the 2nd round, but I was focused on giving my offense a foundation, as were most.

Round 7: Young hitters without decorative track records seemed to be severely devalued in this draft, and no pick was more telling of this trend than Delmon Young at 7:5, sandwiched between Adam LaRoche and Adam Dunn.

Round 11-12: Despite the alleged lack of depth at 2B, three capable starters in Josh Barfield (11:5), Howie Kendrick (11:7), andJeff Kent (11:11) in round 11 and make for nice value picks, considering other owners jumped on similar talents much earlier. To further exemplify this, 2B Tad Iguchi and Freddy Sanchez come off the board in the following round.

Round 16-18: With the all-around lack of talent at closer, being able to still land guys who saved 30+ games last season and/or are the team’s surefire option in the ninth for the time being, are very attractive picks. Joe Borowski (16:5), Octavio Dotel (16:8), Armando Benitez (18:2), and Salomon Torres (18:5) all fall this late despite the relative shallow closer pool.

Round 22-25: The temptation to grab super-prospect stud pitchers may come much sooner, but as I learned in this draft, there’s no need to rush the affair. Homer Bailey (22:11), Philip Hughes (23:2), Yovani Gallardo (23:8), Andrew Miller (24:11), and Tim Lincecum (25:2) all came off the board here. All will likely start in the minors but are on their team’s fast track, and this just goes to show you that you can still stockpile top-level minor-league talent in the final rounds of most drafts.

Draft #3
League Settings: 14 teams, 25 man rosters, standard 5 x 5 scoring

My Team (Round:Pick)

C: Michael Barrett (12:11)
1B: Paul Konerko (3:4)
2B: Ian Kinsler (13:4)
SS: Jose Reyes (1:4)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (4:11)
OF: Delmon Young (7:4)
OF: Raul Ibanez (8:11)
OF: Nick Markakis (11:4)
DH: Travis Hafner (2:11)
BN: Edwin Encarnacion (16:11)
BN: Chris Burke (20:11)
BN: Luke Scott (24:11)
BN: James Loney (23:4)

SP: Aaron Harang (6:11)
SP: Daisuke Matsuzaka (9:4)
SP: Barry Zito (10:11)
SP: Freddy Garcia (17:4)
SP: Jake Westbrook (18:11)
RP: Billy Wagner (5:4)
RP: Jason Isringhausen (11:4)
RP: Salomon Torres (15:4)
RP: Matt Capps (22:11)
BN: Zach Duke (21:4)
BN: Nate Robertson (25:4)

Favorite Pick: Ryan Zimmerman, 4th round – Landing Zimmerman with the fourth-to-last pick of the 4th round really boosted my confidence regarding this draft. I was a little concerned about my hitting foundation prior to this pick, but getting a young stud capable of big all-around production with the 53rd pick, after guys like Victor Martinez, Carlos Delgado, and Brian Roberts, really shored up the offense.

Least Favorite Pick: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Round 9 – I’ve done quite a few drafts this offseason and this is the first time I’ve selected Dice-K. Sure, he has the upside to certainly match the value of the pick here, but with Aaron Harang as my ace, I should’ve made a better effort to land a low-risk, safety valve veteran behind him, in case Harang falters.

Strategy: My strategy in this draft, now that I had two drafts under my belt and had a pretty good grasp of the trends to expect, was to mix it up and still put together a solid all-around team. I wanted to break the trends I set in the earlier drafts, including putting together a complete outfield early on, seeing how long I could wait before taking a starting pitcher, get a elite closer, and round out my starting lineup and bench with a lot of young hitters with upside rather than seasoned vets.

How It Worked Out: This was my unluckiest draft, as many of my targeted players came off the board literally right before I selected; I made the best out of it, but had to make some alterations midway through. I decided not to focus on any particular area and address all major areas within the first 6-7 picks. I got some infield help, some outfield help, a DH, an ace, and a closer in m seven picks, and rotated rounding each area out as the draft continued. The end result was a well-rounded team, not overwhelming strong or weak in any one area, but with a noticably better bullpen and inferior top of the rotation.

Observations

Round 2: After landing Jose Reyes to be the cornstone of my infield, I planned on taking an outfielder to fill a similar role in round 2. Unfortunately, Vernon Wells, Ichiro, Grady Sizemore, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and Manny Ramirez all went in the mid-second round, a devastating blow to the depth at OF by the time I picked.

Round 6-7: The run on second mid0level second basemen began earlier than I’ve ever seen this offseason, with mid-round talents like Julio Lugo (6:1), Brandon Phillips (7:3), Jeff Kent (7:5 – who went a full four rounds later in draft #2), and Rickie Weeks (7:13) coming off much earlier than anticipated.

Round 10: Round 10 seemed to mark the end of the mid-tier closers, with Brad Lidge, Francisco Cordero, and Brian Fuetnes all getting selected here. The next closer picked, Bob Wickman (with significantly less K’s and upside) would not get his name called until 13:5, a full 34 picks after Fuentes at the tail-end of the 10th.

Round 12: Unlike some of the other squads, who rushed for their 2nd baseman in the 6th & 7th rounds, I targeted either Josh Barfield or Howie Kendrick here, but both went off the board before I picked. I selected with Michael Barrett here, since I targeted him in the 13th and didn’t want the same to occur at catcher, and still got a reasonably good Ian Kinsler in the next round.

Round 17: I’m not sure if this was intentional or not (I’m pretty sure it wasn’t), but every team took a pitcher this round. The end result: 6 solidified back-end starters, 3 high-risk closers, 4 middle relievers who are in line for closer jobs should injuries strike, and high upside swingman Chad Billingsley. With the exception of Seth McClung, I’d consider all picks of pretty good value, including my selection, Freddy Garcia.

Round 20: Joel Pineiro, who I landed in the latter-half of round 25 in the last draft, comes off the board here, and is the last tentative closer selected in the draft.

Round 25: Two former aces recovering from arm injuries in Pedro Martinez and Mark Mulder were selected in the final round as ultimate low-risk, high-reward picks. I landed Nate Robertson, who may not be as rewarding as the other two if healthy, but poses a significantly higher chance of making 25-30 starts, and after a sub-4.00 ERA, 13 win season on a team set to cotend for a divisional crown, it just goes to show you how deep mid-level pitching really is this season.

Handcuffs

Handcuffing one player to another is a concept much more prevalent in fantasy football, especially in the case of committee-splitting RBs, but it also plays a significant role in fantasy baseball. The reason it’s far less significant in baseball is because most players who are handcuffed together in baseball can’t be simultaneously productive. In football, runningbacks in a platoon can both score TDs in the same game, but in the cases of the most common baseball handcuffs, it’s usually either one or the other who will have an opportunity for success. For instance, for hitters split in platoons , only one can start and get the majority of the at-bats per game, and for potential committee closers, only one can pick up the save.

The most sensible and effective handcuffs are those in which the players have good complementary skills, will both see significant playing time, and can both put up decent production even if their roles don’t change and one receives more (favorable)playing time than the other. There aren’t too many handcuffs that make sense in standard-sized leagues, but there are a few that could turn out to be useful down the stretch, and here they are:

Atlanta Braves
Bob Wickman & Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano

Before a midseason trade to Atlanta, Wickman had a 4.18 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and a .271 BAA; he seemed shaky in the ninth inning for the Indians and if it weren’t for the Braves’ absolute desperation for a closer, Wickman may have been demoted to a set-up man. A midseason trade revived Wickman and he put the best half-season of his career, but with a long history of injury and mediocrity, if he doesn’t maintain a similar level of play, we could be looking at an alternate option taking over at closer. Both Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano were acquired this offseason, both of whom have minor closing experience, phenomenal peripherals and stuff, and are coming off sub-2.50 ERA and 1+ K/IP campaigns in 2006. Soriano seems like an ideal 8th inning man, but he still has very good value in that role, especially in leagues that count holds as a stat. Both Gonzalez and Soriano can have an impact as relievers and both will likely garner some save opportunities, one of which could take over at closer, should Wickman fail to stay healthy and/or effective.

Chicago Cubs
Cliff Floyd & Matt Murton

It’s hard to draft two position players that are stuck in a platoon simply because, barring injuries, etc., they’ll be expected to combine for 162 games and 500 or so at-bats, something that you can usually get from one player without having to waste the extra roster spot and having to go back anf forth each day and making sure you’re starting the right platooner. Floyd & Murton may make you work a little harder, but could very well be worth it. Floyd, the lefty, showed he can still offer raw power and steal some bases, while Murton, the righty, can hit for average, score runs, and put up modest HR & RBI totals. They compliment each other very well and could easily combine for 35-40 HRs, 100 RBIs, and a solid AVG. Also, based on Floyd’s injury history, it makes sense to take his replacement should you have the room and with the rumors swirling regarding trading Jacque Jones, both could end up starting simultaneously on a regular basis in 2007.

Jacque Jones & Felix Pie

Like I said, the rumors surrounding trading Jones have been heating up all offseason, and if he does find himself on the move, one of the favorites to take over in the outfield is five-tool talent, Felix Pie. Pie, 22, took a step back last season, but he would make an instant impact should get the call-up. Jones had a very good season, which he’s unlikely to duplicate, and should the Cubs fail to live up to potential in 2007, Jones could be the first scapegoat out the door. Jones can still offer all-around modest production, though his AVG has been consistently unimpressive (excluding 2006) and Pie would take over, with notably more upside. The possibility of starting both simultaneously is an added bonus, though if Jones is traded, he may be better off as your 4th OF.

Ryan Dempster & Kerry Wood

Dempster blew nine saves and lost nine games in 2006, while posting a below-average 4.80 ERA. He’s still slated to be the closer on Opening Day, but coming off of a 7.15 ERA in September without recording a save and a change in regime, and Dempster will be on a very short leash. Bob Howry seems like the most deserving to take over at closer, but the real intrigue surrounds Kerry Wood. Howry is ideal in the 8th inning and the Cubs will be reluctant to tinker with his role. Wood is the complete wildcard because he has the velocity, stuff, makeup, and ability to miss bats that are perfect for the 9th inning. He suffered a minor setback, but all signs still point to him being healthy by the start of April. If he can just hold his own and Dempster doesn’t make significant improvement, there could be a switch early. Even if Wood doesn’t take over right away, his ability to pitch multiple innings per outing combined with a high strikeout rate give him very good value in the bullpen, while Dempster can still record saves with hopefully league-average peripherals.

Cleveland Indians
Casey Blake & Ryan Garko

Blake is slated to be the Opening Day first baseman, but with his positional flexibility and the question marks at RF/3B, he could end up being a plug-and-play option, starting in any corner position. If he does, the door at first base will be opened up to 26-year old, Ryan Garko, who has mashed at all minor league levels and posted a solid 7-45-.292 in 50 games during his first significant major leauge stint. Both are falling late in the draft because their roles are still undefined, but with Trot Nixon and David Dellucchi slated as the corner outfielders and Andy Marte, who struggled mightily in AAA last season, at third, a position shift for one of the two, could give each a starting role. Until then, they’ll likely platoon, but both are very good hitters who compliment well, and as we saw with two lesser hitters in Ben Broussard and Eduardo Perez last season, a platoon at first in Cleveland can still give both players adequate value.

Detroit Tigers
Todd Jones & Joel Zumaya

Similar, but superior, to the Dempster/Wood situation, this is an ideal handcuff. The Tigers won 90+ games last season, many of them very close, which means lots of save and hold opportunities for relievers. Jones was steady in the ninth inning, though his 28 strikeouts in 64 innings was the lowest K rate amongst all qualifying closers, his 3.94 ERA was league-average, and he can only pitch a max. of 1 inning per appearance. What gives him his true value is his great control (11 walks all season), his low WHIP, and his ability to still rack up saves (77 over past two seasons). Zumaya is the perfect complement – ridiculously high strikeout totals, vicious, electric stuff to baffle batters and contribute to his 1.94 ERA and .187 BAA, his ability to pitch multiple innings per appearance, while picking up wins, all at the mere expense of a relatively high walk rate. Not only will both instantly contribute in their current roles, if Jones should struggle and lose his job someone would still give him a shot at closer, and if Zumaya took over as closer, you’d be looking at arguably the most valuable reliever in baseball, all at a very reasonable price.

Houston Astros
Brad Lidge & Dan Wheeler

Lidge’s struggles have continued this spring training with a current 13.50 ERA in 6.0 IP. Lidge battled with maintaining consistency all season in 2006, while posting an ugly 5.28 ERA, allowing 10 HRs in 75.0 IP, and blowing six saves. All in all, take away the ERA and he had an average-to-above-average season, resulting in over 100 Ks, 32 saves, and a .238 BAA. Unfortunately, the Astros are growing tired of his inconsistency and with a heavy trade market for closers and some holes elsewhere, a deal could soon be in the works. Dan Wheeler would inherit the closer role, and based on his 2.38 ERA, his .91 K/IP rate, near .200 BAA, and 12 saves in Lidge’s absence since arriving in Houston 2 1/2 seasons ago, and would likely be an effective, cheap option for saves. Until he does take over as closer, assuming Lidge is traded, he still has top-shelf value for middle relievers with good peripherals, good strikeout totals, and the ability to pick up saves when Lidge’s struggles are at their worst.

Los Angeles Angels
Gary Matthews, Jr. & Chone Figgins/Juan Rivera

Even the most optimistic fans of Gary Matthews, Jr. didn’t think he could top his 2006 numbers and live up to his $50 million contract, but now with a steriod-controversy swirling, there is even less optimism regarding his 2007 fantasy outlook. Rumors have swirled about the Angels attempting to void Matthews, Jr.’s contract and right now this situation is still very tenuous, especially if Matthews, Jr. returns to his usual level of 4th outfielder level of play. It’s hard to imagine him getting benched with that salary, but if he struggles, Figgins could cut into his playing time in centerfield, while Hillenbrand would take over at third. Another possibility is Juan Rivera, who hit 23-85-.310 last season but broke his leg and will be out until at least June, but will definitely be on the radar. If Matthews can post similar numbers to his ‘06 production, he’ll have good #3 OF value, but not without risks. Stashing Rivera away on the DL or handcuffing the SB-machine Figgins seem to be very good idea with the deck currently stacked against Matthews.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Wilson Betemit & James Loney

Nomar Garciaparra is going to start somewhere in the infield on Opening Day, whether it’s at 1B or 3B, will ultimately determine the value of the two players listed above. Betemit was expected to start at third base with Nomar sticking at first base, but Betemit has struggled since arriving in L.A. and with Nomar still capable of handling the hot corner combined with the emergence of 1B prospect, James Loney and a change could be in the works. The other possibility is Nomar swapping back and forth between the corner spots and Betemit and Loney splitting time in between. Combined Loney & Betemit would adequately contribute to all categories while giving you eligibility at every infield position. Should Betemit start the majority of the time, Loney is a solid #2 1B. If Loney starts the majority of the time, Betemit is a very good utility infielder, with some pop and eligibility at 2B/SS/3B. Both have offensive upside and both are still readily available late in the draft, making this a low-risk, high-reward, and non-restricting platoon situation.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Salomon Torres & Matt Capps

Torres is an unglamorous, but deserving choice as closer. He’s been a servicable middle reliever who developed into a very good setup man, but he’s an all-around average pitcher with above-average numbers. He’s not overpowering nor does he strikeout a lot of batters, but he limits his mistakes and keeps the ball on the ground. The Pirates don’t need an all-star closer on a sub-.500 team, and Torres did convert 12 of 13 saves upon taking over as closer in September. The problem is, at age 34 with good experience, and all-around utility, he’s a very tradable commodity. Should he be dealt and take over as a contender’s set-up man midseason, you should already have Matt Capps locked up. Capps garnered 9 wins in mid-relief last season, has a mid-90’s fastball and is developing a slider as an out-pitch. Jim Tracy already stated that Capps will be closing sometime soon and handcuffing these two together could give you a good combo of holds, saves, wins, and strikeouts, and if Torres is dealt, you could get 30-40 saves between the two, with each giving you an even split.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Akinori Iwamura & B.J. Upton

Iwamura dominated pitching in Japan, but translate more along the lines of Tad Iguchi in the majors, which means second-base production at third base, which usually results in a position or role change. Iwamura could hold his own and stick at third all season, but he can handle six positions fairly well and he is probably the best pinch-hitter on the team, which could result in a future utility role. He’s struggled early in spring training, and while B.J. Upton’s glove is a liability at any position, he’s more likely to stick at 3B than SS, if anywhere. Upton’s bat and speed can’t be ignored and he still offers 25/25 potential despite high strikeouts and low AVG. The two could platoon, since Iwamura offers more well-rounded, refined production to match Upton’s raw skills. If a platoon is activated, both would still have a very good value, since the infield is amongst the weakest and they both have good positional flexibility, the one who doesn’t get the nod at third, could start elsewhere in the field.

Texas Rangers
Eric Gagne & Akinori Otsuka

This has been the most utilized handcuff situation since Adam Wainwright was moved to the rotation in St. Louis, and rightfully so. Gagne was the best closer in baseball only three seasons ago, but after a combined 15.1 IP in ‘05 & ‘06, he’s a very risky pick to stick at closer in ‘07. Gagne has pitched the majority of this spring in “B” games and his fastball has currently topped out at or around 91 MPH. He’s reported some soreness and still looks a little rusty, so the risks are still there, but he’s still penciled in as the closer for Opening Day. Whether or not he’s ready, Akinori Otsuka has tremendous value as either a top-5 middle reliever or a mid-to-top tier closer. Otsuka has posted 1 K/IP, 35 saves, a 2.43 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and .223 BAA in three seasons, while proving to be a competent 7th, 8th, or 9th inning man. Otsuka does it all, even averaging 4 wins a season, and will have an immediate impact in either role this season. He’s the perfect handcuff in that he’s certain to get some save opportunities either way, can easily replace Gagne if he gets injured, and he’ll still be productive in his current role. Gagne may be the biggest injury concern of all the players whose ADP is in the top 100, and luckily for those who choose to take the risk, there is an optimal handcuff available a few rounds later.

Fantasy Faux Pas

As I continue to participate in more and more fantasy drafts leading up to Opening Day, I have picked up on numerous trends. Some of this year’s popular trends include stacking up on hitters for the first four rounds, waiting late to grab a catcher, and drafting a 50/50 split of relievers, half of which are closers, half of which are intriguing setup men. All trends are very telling about draft strategies, but not all of them are good. The more you prep and the more observant you are, the more you can utilize the good trends and avoid the faux pas. Without further adieu, here are the top five faux pas I have picked up on this offseason:

1. Rushing for Steals

There were twenty-five players who stole 20 or more bases last season, all of which are still at or around their peak years (excluding Kenny Lofton) and all of which should be expected to steal at least 20 bases again in 2007 (barring any injuries). Scott Podsednik and Bobby Abreu have some slight injury concerns heading into Opening Day, but all twenty-five are expected to be on their active rosters and get a good chunk of playing time. In addition to these 25 are young guys like Carlos Beltran, Rickie Weeks, Chris B. Young, Nick Punto, Alex Rios, Rocco Baldelli, and B.J. Upton who are all capable of 20-25 steals or more with a full season of playing time and are in position to join the group. Doing the math, you’re looking at approximately three 20 SB guys per team (in standard 12 team leagues) and enough base stealers to go around for everyone.

Of the 25, of course guys like Jose Reyes, Carl Crawford, Ichiro, David Wright, and Alfonso Soriano will fly off the boards in the first round or two, but most can be found in the mid-to-late rounds. According to the the most recent ADP report, 12 of the top 25 are still available after the first 50 picks and guys like Willy Taveras, Orlando Cabrera, Ryan Freel, and Eric Byrnes are still available after the top 100 selections are made. Some of the one-dimensional, low power base stealers including Chris Duffy, Joey Gathright, Alfredo Amezaga, and Omar Vizquel can even be picked up off the waiver wire after the draft.

Obviously, the 20/20 guys are going to go high and as well they should, but there’s no reason to reach on a one-dimensional base stealer (as many will do - just look at their ADPs) like Felipe Lopez (44 steals, 70th on ADP), Chone Figgins (52 steals, 42nd on ADP), or Corey Patterson (45 steals, 87th on ADP) when guys like Dave Roberts (49 steals, 148th on ADP), Scott Podsednik (40 steals, 169th on ADP), and Ryan Freel (37 steals, 144th on ADP) are still available much later on in the middle rounds of the draft. Even if you miss out on the 30-40 SBs guys, all-around hitters with 20-25 SBs like Josh Barfield and Eric Byrnes are still usually on the board in the second half of 20-24 round drafts. Stolen bases are still a valued commodity, but there’s no need to rush the affair by reaching on one-dimensional base stealers as starters, when they’ll be a surplus of them available when it comes time to address your bench.

2. Overvaluing Postseason Heroics

The last baseball memories etched in many of our minds during spring training are those that occurred in October during the playoffs. Often it is the good players achieving great status, but equally likely it is an average player hitting his stride under the bright lights at just the right time. Not to take anything away from last postseason’s heroes, but just take a look at the comparables.

#1: Jeff Weaver

Jeff Weaver, ADP: 177 in AL-only leagues
2006 stats: 8-14, 107 K, 5.76 ERA, 1.51 WHIP

Gil Meche, ADP: 182 in AL-only leagues
2006 stats: 11-8, 156 K, 4.48 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Miguel Batista, ADP: 199 in AL-only leagues
2006 stats: 11-8, 110 K, 4.58 ERA, 1.53 WHIP

Esteban Loaiza, ADP: 200 in AL-only leagues
2006 stats: 11-9, 97 K, 4.89 ERA, 1.42 WHIP

Granted, people who took Weaver higher than they should weren’t passing on future Cy Young winners, but after an atrocious ERA of 5.76 and only managing to garner 8 wins with two playoff contenders, you’d have to think he’d go undrafted in most leagues. This is the case in most mixed leagues, but I’ve seen him go even higher than the above ADP shows and ahead of even better available options than the ones listed.

#2: David Eckstein

David Eckstein, ADP: 349 in mixed leagues
2006 stats: 68 R, 2 HR, 23 RBI, 7 SB, .292 AVG

Yuniesky Betancourt, ADP: 374 in mixed leagues
2006 stats: 68 R, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 11 SB, .289 AVG

Maicer Izturis, ADP: 392 in mixed leagues
2006 stats: 64 R, 5 HR, 44 RBI, 14 SB, .293 AVG

Again, those who reached for Eckstein, didn’t pass on much better options, but taking anyone with 23 RBIs over guys who put up close to league-average fantasy numbers for their position, must have something to do with postseason heroics. The ADP rankings are a little misleading since Eckstein has recently suffered an injury to his left side that is expected to keep him out for a good portion of spring training and possibly hampering him at the start of the season. He was recently ahead of shortstops Jason Bartlett and Khalil Greene on ADP reports prior to getting nicked up.

#3: Placido Polanco

Placido Polanco, ADP: 262 in mixed leagues
2006 stats: 58 R, 4 HR, 52 RBI, 1 SB, .295 AVG

Mark DeRosa, ADP: 264 in mixed leagues
2006 stats: 78 R, 13 HR, 74 RBI, 4 SB, .296 AVG

Jose Lopez, ADP: 273 in mixed leagues
2006 stats: 78 R, 10 HR, 79 RBI, 5 SB, .282 AVG

Nick Punto, ADP: 343 in mixed leagues
2006 stats: 73 R, 1 HR, 45 RBI, 17 SB, .290 AVG

Polanco may have more offensive upside than the more productive options that he was chosen over, but when you factor injuries and positional eligibility into the mix, it’s safe to say his postseason play bumped him up a bit. DeRosa could fall off, but has consistently been drafted after Polanco in all leagues I’ve been in, despite outproducing him in every stat, being younger, and offering much more flexibility. Punto, who offers a similar skill set (albeit not the same track record), went, on average, 80 picks later. Polanco could rebound for a big year, but had it not been for his ALCS MVP, he would’ve likely been passed by the other three options at second.

3. Underestimating the Depth at Shortstop

We’re all aware of the sense of urgency at second base as there is a noticable dropoff after the first 4-5 come off the board, but this sense of urgency need not be extended to shortstops. There are eight shortstop-eligible players going into 2007 which I consider elite, and all of which will likely go in the first five rounds. This group of elite eight include the following: Jose Reyes, Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Michael Young, Rafael Furcal, and Carlos Guillen. Guillen has the lowest ADP of the eight with an average draft position of 58th. Based on a standard 12-team league, Guillen would still be available in the tail-end of the 5th round. Should you not choose to draft one of these elite shortstops in the first five rounds, you can still wait it out a bit and target a mid-level player.

Again, if we’re discussing a standard league here, if 8 of the 12 teams already have a shortstop by round 5, then only four more players technically need one, and you can bet there are more than four capable starters still on the board. The second wave of shortstops include guys like Bill Hall, Felipe Lopez, Edgar Renteria, Troy Glaus, Julio Lugo, and Orlando Cabrera, all of which are rated within the top 120 on most website rankings, and all of which will still be available over the next 4-5 rounds. Included with these veteran standouts are Freddy Sanchez, coming off a .344 season, and top prospects Stephen Drew and Troy Tulowitzki. If somehow you still miss out on these seventeen options, all of which are viable starters, you can even luck out by taking a flier on an intriguing late round option like Johnny Peralta, Bobby Crosby, Jason Bartlett, or Yuniesky Betancourt; all of which could survive as a starter in a strong lineup.

People start to feel rushed at the shortstop position mainly because of the notion that there is no depth at middle infield positions and possible because they just don’t realize how many potential starters are available. Sure, if you miss out on the top eight, they’ll be a significant dropoff (as there is at any position), but after the dropoff, there’s a deep field of viable mid-level players who can still be uncovered in the late round of the draft. Guys like Bill Hall and Felipe Lopez are quality starters, but don’t feel rushed to pluck them off the board in round 6 after all the elite shortstops are gone, you can still wait four or five more rounds and target a productive veteran worth a starting spot.

4. Drafting Aces Just Because Their Aces

Any pitcher who gets annointed the ace of their staff must have some degree of fantasy value, regardless of how bad of a rotation he’s in. Obviously, there are thirty aces in all of baseball heading into Opening Day, but just because a pitcher has earned the label of “ace,” doesn’t necessarily mean he instantly becomes more valuable than he was before he was an ace, nor does it mean he is more valuable than other team’s #2/#3 starters, depending on the rotation. The talent pool at pitching this season is about as thin as I can remember and there aren’t too many surefire aces available; there are even some aces who might not be worth a draft pick at this time.

One of the biggest issues of drafting an ace just for the label is the fact that it can have an adverse effect on the pitcher, especially if he’s not deserving of being an ace. Achieving ace status has its perks as far as more money and publicity go, but not necessarily in regards to fantasy value. Take Gil Meche, who will be the Royals’ ace at the start of the season. Meche has never put together anything above a mediocre season as a middle-of-the-rotation starter in Seattle. Now he takes over the #1 slot in Kansas City and he will be forced to matchup against opposing aces like Johan Santana, C.C. Sabathia, Jeremy Bonderman, and others for the majority of his starts, making it much harder to earn wins. He also will face the best each team has to offer because they’ll consider him their top pitcher. Going up against other aces will likely limit your team’s production and if a guy like Gil Meche can’t reduce his league-average ERA of 2006, even if his ERA stayed the same, one should expect a significantly worse record in 2007.

Gil Meche isn’t the only pitcher who posted league-average numbers (or worse) in 2006 and will be taking over as his staff’s ace. Meche will be joined by the Nationals’ John Patterson, Mariners’ Felix Hernandez, and Pirates’ Zach Duke. All four have earned the role of ace for a very good reason, but each must now show significant strides of improvement because with the added pressure and more difficult matchups, merely pitching at the same level will result in lesser production.

If you think these four can develop as starters and live up to their ace tag, then they’re certainly worth the gamble, because they weren’t made aces for no reason. They have the faith of scouts, managers, and pitching coaches and these experts are promoting them for a reason. But should you have your doubts about their capabilities and think that they will continue to produce at a league-average rate and not make significant improvements, then these are players you should avoid at all costs. Drafting a pitcher just because he has been promoted to the role of ace could backfire if he turns out not to be deserving of the promotion. If you’re torn between two players, one of which is an ace, you might just be better off selecting the one who won’t have to face opposing aces in the majority of their starts.

5. Drafting Interdivisional Closers

This last faux pas isn’t something to get overly concerned with, but if it’s something you can avoid, it’s worth making the extra effort. In a year where half of the league’s closers have some pretty big question marks, anything that can be done to increase the potential number of saves amongst your staff of closers should be done. One particular thing that can be done is avoiding interdivisional closers, or closers who pitch in the same division. With each divisional rivals scheduling to face each other 19 or so times in 2007, you lose about 20 save opportunities right off the bat if both your closers are in the same league.

Take Francisco Rodriguez and Huston Street for example. Both are ranked amongst the top ten closers in baseball and both should rack up about 35-40 saves, if fully healthy, but twenty times this season, their teams will go head-to-head, and each time they do, you’ll only be able to earn a maximum of one save on those nights, as opposed to two, as you would if they weren’t in the same division. It doesn’t seem like a big deal on the surface, but when these teams play each other three or four times in a given week, you have a very good chance of losing in the saves department during a short time span of one week. If you figure these teams play six series over the course of the season, you’re significantly reducing your chances of winning saves six weeks of the season, which can certainly have an adverse effect in the long run.

No one is saying to pass up on Huston Street for David Weathers, but if two closers are both available and both closely rated and the difference between the two is marginal, it’s worth taking a slight downgrade to avoid interdivisional closers. Again, this isn’t something that should remodel your entire draft strategy, but it is something worth avoiding, especially in a year where you should do whatever you can to maximize the value of a weak closer class.

Average Draft Position Report

One way to prep for a draft is to plan ahead for the middle rounds, and the best way to do it is to know who will still be on the board. An Average Draft Position Report gives you the data needed to do this successfully, including the particular player’s average draft slot, and the earliest and latest they’ve gone in any draft. Of course, each website’s ADP rankings will be exclusive to their website, as the default rankings on any website will greatly influence the ADP report, as well will the type of league. The following ADP report is based on the data from Mockdraftcentral.com using all draft results from standard 5×5 leagues. I’ll break it down by position and pick out the ones I found most surprising. It is worth noting that a standard league will usually consist of 12 teams with 23 man rosters, so the total number of picks would be 276 in a given draft.

Catcher

Highest Rated: Joe Mauer, MIN
Average Draft Position: 31 (mid 3rd round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 18/45
Rank Amongst Catchers: 1st
Comments: No arguments here, Mauer is the best the game has to offer at the position. He is far and away the best hitter for average at the position, can steal a few bases, drive in runs, and his power is still developing.

Surpisingly High: Mike Piazza, OAK
Average Draft Position: 135 (11th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 82/178
Rank Amongst Catchers: 5th
Comments: Piazza has all the characteristics of an over-valued pick, he’s got a great reputation based on his past career heroics, and he showed modest power with a respectable average. His 22 HRs and .283 AVG are certainly quality numbers that have mid-round value, but with a very low peak and potential regression at age 38, it’s hard to expect anything more than that this season. It also doesn’t help that the rest of Piazza’s numbers are borderline terrible with 68 RBI, 39 R, and 0 SB.

Surprisingly Low: Ramon Hernandez, BAL
Average Draft Position: 181 (15th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 109/250
Rank Amongst Catchers: 10th
Comments: Hernandez has put together four straight solid offensive seasons, and at age 30, playing in an offensive boombox in Baltimore, on a team with a score-first mentality, there’s no reason to think he won’t prolong a pretty solid peak. He hasn’t hit under .273 in the least four years and has averaged 18.5 HRs over that timespan. His 66 runs scored last year isn’t anything to crazy over, but it’s above-average for catchers, that’s for sure.

First Base

Highest Rated: Albert Pujols, STL
Average Draft Position: 1
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 1/3
Rank Amongst First Basemen: 1st
Comments: Pujols is the best player in both baseball and fantasy baseball, and his top-ranking is nothing to be surprised about. I’m actually just surprised he fell to #3 in a few leagues, according to the ADP report. His actual average is 1.08, which is about as close to a consensus #1 overall as you’ll ever get.

Surprisingly High: Derrek Lee, CHC
Average Draft Position: 33 (late 3rd round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 18/42
Rank Amongst First Basemen: 5th
Comments: Lee has always been a very good hitter and fantasy contributor, who was capable of giving you 90 R, 25-30 HR, 10-20 SB, and average just under .280. Those are very solid numbers and to think that prior to 2005 he hit 20+ HRs for five straight years solidifies his reputation. Unfortunately his SBs have fluctuated, and prior to ‘05, he never once topped 100 R or RBIs, which is nothing to be ashamed about, but it’s hard to have third-round value with only one premier season. He was still strong upon returning from injury in 2006, but it looks like he’s back to being a very good player, not a great one.

Surprisingly Low: Conor Jackson, ARZ
Average Draft Position: 221 (18th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 155/Undrafted
Rank Amongst First Basemen: 16th
Comments: The biggest knock against Jackson will be his lack of power at a corner position. 15 HRs is solid, but fantasy owners often look for 30+ HR power, especially at first base. Overlooking a 6′2, 225 24-year old, who should increase his power with time would be a mistake. Jackson is a lot like former D’Backs 1B prospect Lyle Overbay, he’s big and strong and capable of 20-25 HRs, but he’s best suited as a doubles hitter. Jackson walks at a very high rate, which will help him as a run scorer, and posting 79 RBIs with a .291 AVG in his first full season isn’t too shabby, either.

Second Basemen

Top Rated: Chase Utley, PHI
Average Draft Position: 8
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 4/13
Rank Amongst Second Basemen: 1st
Comments: Utley may have a greater dominance over his position than any other player going into 2007. He’s the undisputed best 2B in fantasy baseball and no one is even in the rear view mirror, and at a very thing position, his value has further increased. Overall, he may not be the 8th highest ranked player come season’s end, but he’ll still be in the top 15, and good luck finding another 2B who can hit .300-30-100.

Surprisingly High: Rickie Weeks, MIL
Average Draft Position: 97 (8th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 61/138
Rank Amongst Second Basemen: 6th
Comments: Weeks is loaded with talent and potential, but saying that a guy who was expected to be Rookie of the Year two years ago still has potential just means he hasn’t done much yet. Weeks suffered a wrist injury last season which could hurt his timing at the plate, and with his defense not up to par, a position change could be in the works, which would definitely limit his long-term value. He hasn’t hit very well in the minors and while his ML numbers have been solid based on limited playing time, there’s still quite a risk and we haven’t seen much reward yet. He could break out as many expected last year or he could continue to strikeout at a very high rate and prolong his career AVG of .257.

Surprisingly Low: Ray Durham, SFO
Average Draft Position: 164 (13th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 109/Undrafted
Rank Amongst Second Basemen: 12th
Comments: Durham may be the most likely candidate to regress following a contract year, but people forget that not too long ago, Durham was considered an elite, consistent producer at 2B. At age 35, a regression of .293-26-93 is naturally expected, but even the pessimistic PECOTA (see Baseball Prospectus Review, Part I) thinks he’ll be a solid contributor for a second straight season. He’s a career .281 hitter, with a .292 average over the last two years, who still has 15-20 HR potential with good RBI totals and a few SBs on the side. He’s right at the cutoff point for a starting job in fantasy baseball, but he just makes it and should prove worthy of the label.

Third Basemen

Highest Rated: Alex Rodriguez, NYY
Average Draft Position: 4
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 2/8
Rank Amongst Third Basemen: 1st
Comments: For all the heat A-Rod takes for his defense, consistency, and ability to crack under pressure, he has maintained excellent fantasy production along the way and is definitely deserving to be atop the 3rd baseman rankings. He’s going to be pushed by David Wright and Miguel Cabrera in the very near future, but he’s still a star, playing at his peak, and after a “down year” in 2006 (based on his career numbers), if he even slightly rebounds in 2007, he’s undoubtedly a top 5 producer.

Surprisingly High: Mark Teahen, KAN
Average Fantasy Value: 143 (11th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 89/191
Rank Amongst Third Basemen: 11th
Comments: I like Teahen as much as anybody and was glad to see him match his potential in ‘06, but it’s hard to expect much more and for him to be worthy of a starting job at 3B in most fantasy leagues. Teahen was the best hitter on the worst team in baseball, so he’ll naturally gain some good publicity, but he’s already being pushed to a different position (which, as we’ve seen, can occassionally have an adverse effect at the plate), but more importantly, will have a very difficult scoring and driving in runs in this lineup. He tops out at about 20-22 HR potential and while he can add a handful of steals and hit well enough to hold his own, he looks to better served as a spare part off the fantasy bench rather than as your starting third baseman (especially if he adds OF eligibility).

Surprisingly Low: Eric Chavez, OAK
Average Draft Position: 175 (14th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 113/Undrafted
Rank Amongst Third Basemen: 17th
Comments: Last year was downright terrible for Chavez, posting career full-season lows in HRs, RBIs, R, and AVG, but at age 29, there’s no reason to think he can’t rebound and return to form. His AVG was always dangerously close to being a liability, but hitting within a 20 point curve (.269-.288) for six straight seasons prior to last season at least offered reliability. He also drove in 100+ 4 of 5 years prior to last year and produced 6 straight seasons of 85+ R and 25+ HRs. He’s always healthy and has a tremendous track record. Last year could indicate a deterioration in strike-zone skills or bat speed, but it’s hard to imagine that occurring during a peak age, it seems more likely as a result of bad luck on balls put in play and a rebound seems imminent.

Outfielders

Top Rated: Alfonso Soriano, CHC
Average Draft Position: 2
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 1/6
Rank Amongst Outfielders: 1st
Comments: He’s the only player not named Pujols or Santana to earn a #1 overall pick in a draft on this ADP report and is clearly the best OF available in terms of all-around production. It will be difficult to sustain 40 SBs with a shift in his expected role and joining a potential contender, but he still did it last year as the only power hitter on the Nationals. His AVG is somewhat of a concern, but a better lineup could be the cure to that. After a 40/40 season, there’s no sense in debating whether or not he should be #1 amongst OF.

Surprisingly High: Chone Figgins, LAA
Average Draft Position: 43 (4th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 33/58
Rank Amongst Outfielders: 14th
Comments: Figgins has great actual-MLB value as a scrappy player with great versatility in both the lineup and the field, but after a .267 AVG of a year ago, it’s time to question his fantasy value. Unless Figgins raises his average by at least 20 points, he’ll offer primarily one thing this season, stolen bases. SBs are a commodity to be valued, but with less than 10 HRs and 60 RBIs, he doesn’t carry the bat to play the OF. Of course, his ADP ranking is embellished by his ability to handle the infield positions, but with a sub-100 total in runs scored, he fits in perfectly as a super-utility fantasy player rather than a starter.

Surprisingly High: Nick Swisher, OAK
Average Draft Position: 77 (6th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 58/104
Rank Amongst Outfielders: 21st
Comments: Swisher may be the best young example of a one-dimensional power hitter, and unlike Figgins, his commodity is not to difficult to find. Swisher is a fun player, who gets some good publicity, which will naturally enhance his value. The bottomline is, despite 30-35 HR perennial potential, he doesn’t offer much else. He struggles to hit .250, strikes out way too often, doesn’t steal bases, and although he posted a solid RBI total of 95, he leaves too many runners on base and with the number of times he’ll strikeout, he may not have room for much more than 95 RBIs in the future. He can still adjust, but he’s got old-player skills and is a one-dimensional producer at this point.

Surprisingly Low: Hideki Matsui, NYY
Average Draft Position: 57 (5th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 40/72
Rank Amongst Outfielders: 18th
Comments: Power, average, RBIs, runs scored, and a spotless injury track record prior to 2006 make Matsui a potential top-10 OF. No one would’ve played through a broken wrist so let’s not hold that against him. Matsui came back strong despite his wrist injury and showed the .300-30-100 potential we all knew he possessed. He’s a prime sleeper candidate after missing most of last season, and combine a great lineup with the opportunity to feast on BAL/TB pitching 40 times this season, and it’s amazing how Juan Pierre and Gary Sheffield are ranked higher on this ADP report than he is.

Surprisingly Low: Raul Ibanez, SEA
Average Draft Position: 114 (9th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 80/157
Rank Amongst Outfielders: 27th
Comments: Ibanez has quietly put together five straight very good offensive seasons for five very bad teams. You would think after last year’s .289-33-123 on the last place Mariners the cat would be out of the bag, but apparently it’s not. Ibanez may have played over his head a bit last season, but career .284 hitters with 5 straight seasons of 30+ doubles, and averaging 22 HRs and 93 RBI over the last five seasons don’t just fall from trees. Ibanez is nearing the end of a pretty good (and vastly underrated) peak, but is still capable of at last 1-2 more seasons of similar production. With only 36 starting OF spots in standard leagues, his rank of 27th amongst his outfield peers is hard to believe.

Pitchers

Highest Rated: Johan Santana
Average Draft Position: 6
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 1/12
Rank Amongst Pitchers: 1st
Comments: He hasn’t missed a start in three seasons, he’s got eletric stuff, he gets better as the season goes on, and he won the triple crown in pitching for the entire MLB last season, if anything his 6th ranked draft position is a little low.

Surprisingly High: Jeremy Bonderman, DET
Average Draft Position: 71 (5th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 54/98
Rank Amongst Pitchers: 15th
Comments: Bonderman’s spiked strikeout rate of a season ago has solidified his value as a #2 fantasy starter, but with numerous relievers off the board before him, his draft rankings put him as a mid-tier #1 starter, which just isn’t the case at this time. He could develop into a #1 as early as this season, but with a career 4.72 ERA (and 4.08 ERA in 2006), and a career strikeout rate well below 1 K/IP, there is still quite a risk drafting him this high. He’s shown very good durability and can win double-digit games on a perennial basis, but his average-to-slightly-above-average WHIP and BAA show he still has work to do. 

Surprisingly High: Bobby Jenks, CWS
Average Draft Position: 86 (7th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 62/112
Rank Amongst Pitchers: 20th
Comments: His strikeout rate is amongst the best, and he has the stuff and makeup to be a closer, but there are quite a number of red flags here. He melted down in the 2nd half last season, likely due to poor conditioning, and he has been delayed this spring training, also likely due to poor conditioning. His season-finishing ERA of 4.00 was nothing impressive and it apears as if his value is solely based on his ability to strike hitters out. He offers a modest walk rate and peripherals and while he should be amongst the saves leaders, they won’t be easy to come by in a very competitive AL Central.

Surprisingly Low: Matt Cain, SFO
Average Draft Position: 118 (9th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 90/152
Rank Amongst Pitchers: 38th
Comments: Cain showed #1 starter capabilities last season, but at only age 22 and already far surpassing any number of innings thrown in a single season, he was overworked late in the season. Prior to tiring out in his final three starts, he posted a solid 3.75 ERA and still finished with a 3.26 ERA in the second half (despite his late season meltdown). He’s not ready for 200 IP, but behind a durable Barry Zito, he’ll fit in perfectly. He’ll have a good offense behind him in a pitcher’s park in a pitcher’s division, under Bruce Bochy, who saw the development of the budding Jake Peavy. He strikes out nearly 1 K/IP can go 9 innings and earn hard-fought wins and in a span of six straight starts, in which he allowed a combined 1 ER, he’s shown that he still has untapped potential.

Surprisingly Low: Brian Fuentes, COL
Average Draft Position: 137 (11th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 101/173
Rank Amongst Pitchers: 48th
Comments: Being the greatest closer in Rockies’ history may not count for much, but Fuentes has put together two straight 30 save seasons with sub-3.50 ERAs, sub-1.25 WHIPs, and strikeout rates well above 1 K/IP. He’s shown he can handle Coors Field better than anyone we’ve seen before and with the sharp drop in offensive production in Colorado combined with upto 60 appearances in cavernous parks like Dodger Stadium, Petco Park, and AT & T Park, any effect from Coors can be balanced out. He’s a smart, savvy pitcher, who may struggle to get 35-40 saves, but his all-around numbers solidfy his value as a good mid-level closer.

Niche Players, Vol. 1

Whether it be auction style or in a draft, once your fantasy starting lineup is filled, properly addressing your bench is key. Just like in Major League Baseball, filling out those final roster spots with care can have a lasting effect on off days, during slumps, and when injuries strike, especially in leagues that limit your number of transactions. In order to maximize the value of a good bench, you need players who thrive in areas your lineup may have deficiencies in or serve particular functions that can make the difference in close matchups. Utilizing the strategy of the latter, selecting role players, often gives you the extra contributions needed to edge your opponents in the categories you find yourself particularly weak in .These players serve a function and are affectionately known as “niche players.”

Not every player can be a niche player, and most niche players are players who are not stars or usually worthy of a starting role on their own. They are players who do one or two particularly well and can thrive in a certain facet of fantasy baseball. A niche doesn’t necessarily have to be limited to one exclusive category, or even any category at all. A niche player could be someone with greater positional flexibility, or someone who hits well in certain situations, etc. Just like major league teams have borderline players (sometimes known as the 25th man) who have certain exclusive skills that make them valuable, as can your fantasy team. While the Brewers haven’t had much success in recent memory, they may have capitalized on this concept better than anyone else when they made outfielder/relief pitcher/pinch hitter-extraordinaire Brooks Kieschnick as their 25th man.

Even the best niche players can have very little value if they’re used improperly or on the wrong team. For instance, Joey Gathright, a one-dimensional base stealing outfielder would have very little purpose sitting on the bench of a team who starts Juan Pierre and Carl Crawford in the OF. Niche players are often only as valuable as their environment/manager allows them to be and the best niche players, in fantasy terms, are the ones who can be best utilized to fit the characteristics of your team. Great niche players who don’t serve a purpose are dead wood on fantasy teams, but can often have good trade value for someone who can utilize that particular niche. All in all, these niche players give fantasy a more realistic approach; it goes beyond just drafting stars at every position and filling your bench with your favorite hometown guys, it gives you an edge by micromanaging and creating a solid all-around fantasy-cohesive unit.

This is the first wave of this particular series, which I intend on expanding upon sometime around Opening Day or shortly thereafter, once roles are better defined. So, without further adieu, here are some of the best niche players going into 2007, and which situations they will achieve maximum value.

Player #1: Ryan Freel
Niche: Base-stealing super-utility hitter

Description: Freel showed an increase in power with 8 HRs last season, but there is one reason why fantasy owners carry him as their 4th OF. He is a consistent stolen base machine, who has stolen 37, 36, and 37 bases respectively in three full seasons in the majors. He can fill-in for a short term injury to one of your OFs without killing your team and while his primary asset is SBs, he can draw walks and help out your OBP. More importantly than his ability to play all three OF spots, which makes him a great 4th outfielder; he still carries eligibility at 2B, one of the weakest positions in fantasy baseball this season. He ven has additional eligibility at 1B & 3B, depending on league requirements, which truly makes him the ultimate fantasy super-utility guy.

Optimal Situation: Freel is best suited on a team who drafts outfielders early, since they will likely be of the 30-100-.300 variety, who may offer a handful of steals, but not enough to consistently win the category each week. Also, a team who rolls the dice on a 2B returning from injury or a tempting prospect, since Freel may not carry much of a bat, but enough of one to hold up at 2B, should the gamble not pan out at starter.

Player #2: Rich Aurilia
Niche: Jack-of-almost-all-trades utility infielder

Description: Aurilia had a career revival in 2005 when he hit 14-68-.282 and followed that up with one of his best offensive seasons at age 35, with an impressive 23-70-.300. Aurilia is a wily veteran, who offers great versatility at every infield positions, simply because he doesn’t have a set starting position. His role in the lineup and in the field is often interchangable and he did a good portion of his damage coming off the bench. He offers modest power and runs scored, with a solid AVG/OBP/SLG line (especially at the middle infield spots) and most importantly gives you a capable spot starter anytime an infielder goes down temporarily. His 2006 line, on the surface, looks like he wouldn’t kill you as your utility hitter, but that would limit his ability to fill-in all of the place and his lack of playing time could make him useless on given weeks and cold severely hurt production in a starting role.

Optimal Situation: Aurilia isn’t a base stealer, so grabbing two speedy middle infielders, who may not offer much pop to counteract the 30-100-.300 types in the OF, would give Aurilia maximum value. Taking older corner infielders with good pop and reputation, but who seem to need that extra day of rest, are good compliments to Aurilia, as well. With Aurilia’s flexibility and modest contributions to all major categories, but SBs, he fits well in just about any situation where a team doesn’t have Chase Utley and Jose Reyes up the middle.

Player #3: Paul LoDuca
Niche: Run-scoring, contact-hitting back-up catcher

Description: Paul LoDuca, like just about all catchers out there, was never a big run-scorer. Once joining the highly potent Mets offense and using the pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium to utilize his doubles power, LoDuca not only found himself on base more, but found himself crossing home plate a career-high 80 times last season. LoDuca’s 80 runs scored ranked him third amongst catchers (behind only Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez), and first amongst NL catchers. He doesn’t carry a big enough bat to warrant a starting role in standard leagues or leagues that emphasize power, but his .318 average of a year ago (and .290 lifetime average) make him a good contact-hitting option, who can give you the slight boost needed in average, while providing something only the upper-echelon of offensive catcher can provide – runs scored. Very rarely do you see a #2 catcher utilized, but it is a very good idea, simply because catchers get more days of rest than any other position and there are now enough solid offensive options at the position where teams can actually afford to carry two backstops. LoDuca fits the mold of the ideal #2 catcher, with his odd skill set and the fact that, if all else fails, he is a capable (though not suggested) starter.

Optimal Situation: LoDuca best suited for a power-oriented team that doesn’t emphasize run scoring and may be more interested in productivity (i.e. HRs, RBIs, SBs, etc.) rather than batting averages, on-base percentages, etc. LoDuca’s role on this power-oriented team would be as the back-up catcher, who would compliment the power-primary starter, a guy like Mike Piazza (who is still catcher-eligible in ’07) or David Ross, who doesn’t offer the secondary skills LoDuca does.

Player #4: Kevin Youkilis
Niche: OBP-machine Corner infielder

Description: Youkilis currently has eligibility at 1B, 3B, and LF, all of which are primarly power-emphasized positions. Youkilis has some pop in his bat, but not the pop that will win you a starting gig at one of those positions in any standard league. Youkilis drew 91 BB in his first full season, which led to the 14th (t) best OBP in the AL, just one point shy of Vladimir Guerrero. Even in leagues that don’t carry OBP as a stat, that offers some serious indirect value. Despite Youkilis fairly-low total of 13 HRs, he still scored 100 runs, hit a respectable .279, and tacked on an impressive 42 doubles. He doesn’t have the raw power skills expected, but gives you good all-around power and contact numbers (including 79 RBI), without the HRs, making him a great compliment to those 30-40 HR guys who offer very little else.

Optimal Situation: Once the premier corner infielders fly off the board (which they will very quickly) with a shallow upper-echelon pool, the secondary hitters are either risky up-and-comers or veterans whose primary (and in some cases, sole) asset is power. If you find yourself stockpilng pitching and outfielders early on, and settle on guys like Jason Giambi, Troy Glaus, and the like at 1B or 3B, Youkilis is the perfect complement. He provides the youth and durability that particular genre of hitter lacks and makes up for their contact-hitting shortcomings with solid runs scored, doubles, and of course, OBP.

Player #5: Eric Byrnes
Niche: All-Around offensive-minded outfield extraordinaire

Description: Byrnes put it all together, as he settles in with the Diamondbacks last season and finally met the potential scouts had annointed him with years prior. Byrnes not only provides eligibility at all three outfield positions, but handles each one with Gold Glove-like prowess. Which can have additional value in newer leagues that are initiating defensive statistics into fantasy baseball. Not only does he carry an above-average glove and positional versatility, he proved to be a versatile hitter last season. He showed the ability to hit to all fields, hit for doubles, and show modest power, with 26 HRs and 79 RBIs. He also tacked on 25 stolen bases and while his average should fluctuate and isn’t an asset, it won’t kill your team. He’s an all-around producer with good upside and versatile in every way imaginable.

Optimal Situation: Byrnes fits well as any team’s 4th outfielder. He could even be a 3rd OF in deeper leagues or those willing to bet on a Gary Matthews-like outburst in his contract year after getting some big-time exposure thanks to his defensive heroics. Byrnes can give you adequate power and speed off the bench, and while he is susceptible to slumps, he could be a very intriguing platoon in a shallow CF pool in 2007 or as part of a utility hitter package that offers another low-rated, late-rounder with decent all-around tools.