NL East Team Fantasy Previews

Atlanta Braves

Projected Starting Lineup (with early prediction):

C: Brian McCann (.305/20/84)
1B: Scott Thorman (.264/23/68)
2B: Kelly Johnson (.285/8/53)
SS: Edgar Renteria (.285/14/73)
3B: Chipper Jones (.297/28/85)
RF: Jeff Francouer (.268/25/101)
CF: Andruw Jones (.267/44/124)
LF: Ryan Langerhans (.256/16/47)
UT: Craig Wilson (.263/21/60)

Top Offensive Producer: Andruw Jones, CF
Top Offensive Dud: Ryan Langerhans, LF
Most Undervalued Player: Chipper Jones, 3B
Most Overvalued Player: Jeff Francouer, RF
Most Likely to Rebound: Scott Thorman, 1B
Most Likely to Regress: Brian McCann, C

The Rest:
Kelly Johnson, 2B: Converted outfielder has never played 2B or led off, below-average power, but some speed, can draw walks and could have starter value in NL-only leagues
Edgar Renteria, SS: Revived his career with return to NL, gives you double-digit HR/SBs, good RBI and run production for his position, a solid AVG and reliability
Craig Wilson, UT: Struggled with league switch, but should platoon at 1B and see some ABs in the outfield, strikeouts too often, but good power and can still hit .260-.270 in NL

The Bench:
Matt Diaz, OF
Pete Orr, INF
Brayan Pena, C
Chris Woodward, UTIL

Overall Bench Rating: 6.5/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. John Smoltz (14/3.39)
2. Tim Hudson (14/3.96)
3. Chuck James (12/3.68)
4. Mark Redman (9/5.04)
5. Lance Cormier (8/5.06)

Top Starting Pitcher: John Smoltz, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Chuck James, LHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Mark Redman, LHSP

The Rest:
Tim Hudson, RHSP: His win totals haven’t faltered, but his strikeout totals have become a serious issue and ERA jumped 1.34 in 2006; primed for rebound, but tops out as #4 fantasy starter
Lance Cormier, RHSP: Converted reliever has shown flashes of brilliance, but is all too hittable and best suited for long relief, his stay in rotation could be short if he is hit to tune of .314 again

The Bullpen:

Mike Gonzalez
Macay McBride
Chad Paronto
Rafael Soriano
Oscar Villareal
Tyler Yates

Top Middle Reliever: Rafael Soriano & Mike Gonzalez (tie)
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Macay McBride
Overall Bullpen Rating: 7.0/10

The Closer: Bob Wickman
Prediction: 31 SV, 48 K, 3.76 ERA

Injuries:
Mike Hampton, SP: He has started all of 12 games since ‘05 and missed all of last season, he was expected to make a full recover during the spring, but an oblique strain set him back and he’ll now miss at least the first two months of the season and his long-term value this season is still very risky based on his injury history
Willy Aybar, INF: A sprained right hand will put him on the 15-day DL to start the season and will likely keep him out ofmajor league action through April. The issue has affected his wrist and his swing, so an extended minor league rehab could be in the cards for the young prospect

Biggest Position Battle: Second Base

Kelly Johnson inherited the starting job at second in another Bobby Cox experiment and while he has the team’s confidence, as shown by his placement atop the order, he’s a lifetime .241 hitter, who didn’t even sniff the majors last season, and has never been anything more than a slightly above average prospect. Pete Orr, utility extraordinaire, can hit for contact and play a solid second base and should steal at bats and make a push for the starting job. Veteran presence and pinch-hitter Chris Woodward also has shown some good offensive upside this spring and could be in the mix as well. Countless intriguing prospects including Willy Aybar, Yunel Escobar, and 18-year old Elvis Andrus are not lurking far off in the distance themselves.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Can the newly-promoted, inexperienced starters at first base, second base, and left field live up to their billing and still allow this offense to be atop the NL in runs scored again in 2007 and will it be enough to make up for the weakest back-end of the rotation the Braves have assembled in a long time?

Top 3Prospects Heading into 2007:

1. Scott Thorman, 1B
2. Matt Harrison, SP
3. Yunel Escobar, INF

Florida Marlins

Projected Starting Lineup (with early prediction):

C: Miguel Olivo (.257/17/54)
1B: Mike Jacobs (.256/25/76)
2B: Dan Uggla (.275/22/78)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (.301/12/61)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (.326/32/118)
RF: Jeremy Hermida (.280/18/68)
CF: Alejandro De Aza (.273/3/38)
LF: Josh Willingham (.272/29/83)
UT: Aaron Boone (.258/14/55)

Top Offensive Producer: Miguel Cabrera, 3B
Top Offensive Dud: Aaron Boone, UT
Most Undervalued Player: Josh Willingham, LF
Most Overvalued Player: Mike Jacobs, 1B
Most Likely to Rebound: Jeremy Hermida, RF
Most Likely to Regress: Dan Uggla, 2B

The Rest:
Miguel Olivo, C: has modest power, the ability to swipe the occasional bag, and is still in his prime, but his inability to draw a walk (9 in 430 ABs in ‘06!) will prevent him from ever being a fantasy starter
Hanley Ramirez, SS: A sensational debut resulting in winning the ROY which saw his raw skills gradually refine and do a very good Jose Reyes impression in ‘06, he’s still got some great upside Alejandro De Aza, CF: a very deep sleeper who was the underdog but won the starting CF job, will be on a short leash, but he’s got some blazing speed, and showed some good contact hitting in spring

The Bench:
Alfredo Amezaga, INF
Joe Borchard, OF
Cody Ross, OF
Matt Treanor, C

Overall Bench Rating: 5.0/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Dontrelle Willis (14/3.63)
2. Scott Olsen (14/3.82)
3. Anibal Sanchez (10/4.14)
4. Sergio Mitre (7/4.91)
5. Ricky Nolasco (10/5.02)

Top Starting Pitcher: Dontrelle Willis, LHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Scott Olsen, LHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Ricky Nolasco, RHSP

The Rest:
Anibal Sanchez, RHSP: Finished with impressive 2.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, but no-hitter embellished stats and already had low K rate. Still a solid #4/5 starter, but not expected to match ‘06 peripherals
Sergio Mitre, RHSP: Still only 25, but has yet to be effective in any longterm stint and appears to top out as a #5 starter with high WHIPs and excessive HRs allowed

The Bullpen:

Kevin Gregg
Matt Lindstrom
Randy Messenger
Henry Owens
Renyel Pinto
Taylor Tankersley

Top Middle Reliever: Taylor Tankersley
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Henry Owens
Overall Bullpen Rating: 6.0/10

The Closer: Jorge Julio
Prediction: 32 SV, 76 K, 3.61 ERA

Injuries:
Josh Johnson, SP: Dealing with a soreness and nerve irritation in his right throwing arm, Johnson will likely miss the first two months of the season, but it was determined surgery won’t be required and he should make a full recovery by mid-to-late June. This is the type of injury that can be cured with some rest, which he’ll receive, so expect him to start throwing again soon and be a fantasy asset in the second half of the season.
Logan Kensing, RP: Kensing underwent Tommy John surgery late last season and his timetable is still very much unknown. Marlins are optimistic he can return after the all-star break, but he’s still in the very early stages of recovery and will not likely be a fantasy factor this season.
Jeremy Hermida, RF: Hermida will start the season on the DL after a hard-luck foul ball ricocheted off his shin causing a deep bone bruise. Hermida has been somewhat fragile in his early stages, so while a full recovery is expected by late April, it is best to still proceed with caution.

Biggest Position Battle: Center Field

Alejandro De Aza, arguably the biggest surprise of the spring, pulled out the starting job in center field despite never playing above AA in his young career. A sharp-hitting spring combined with good baserunning and defense helped him eek out the starting job over veteran journeyman and base-stealer extraordinaire Alex Sanchez and long-time, light-hitting prospect, Eric Reed, but it’s safe to say that he doesn’t have much job security at this point. He has a bright future, but a slow start coupled with decent AAA performances by the more-experienced Reed or Sanchez could call for an early swap. Not to mention, Jeremy Hermida is expected to return in late April, and current platooners Joe Borchard and Cody Ross (both capable CFs) will be tempting options off the bench.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Can the great rookie successes of Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Josh Willingham, Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco, and Taylor Tankersley carry over into 2007 despite being under new management, injury concerns aplenty, and numerous rookies who clearly played over their heads and slowed down in the second half?

Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:

1. Alejandro De Aza, CF
2. Matt Lindstrom, RP
3. Renyel Pinto, RP

New York Mets

Projected Starting Lineup (with early prediction):

C: Paul LoDuca (.298/7/47)
1B: Carlos Delgado (.280/36/121)
2B: Jose Valentin (.252/14/46)
SS: Jose Reyes (.297/17/78)
3B: David Wright (.315/30/115)
RF: Shawn Green (.267/16/62)
CF: Carlos Beltran (.278/35/114)
LF: Moises Alou (.289/24/76)
UT: Endy Chavez (.291/5/41)

Top Offensive Producer: Jose Reyes, SS
Top Offensive Dud: Shawn Green, RF
Most Undervalued Player: Moises Alou, LF
Most Overvalued Player: Paul LoDuca, C
Most Likely to Rebound: Carlos Delgado, 1B
Most Likely to Regress: Jose Valentin, 2B

The Rest:
David Wright, 3B: Despite s econd-half slump, he still put up fantastic numbers and was one of only three players to finish above average in all five major categories, and an improvement this season is not out of the question
Carlos Beltran, CF: Had a huge bounceback year as he found power stroke; SBs on the decline and no longer reliable and he still struggles at Shea, but definitely top-10 OF material
Endy Chavez, UT: Had a great season as fourth outfielder, whose glove, versatility, speed, and pinch-hitting abilities will continue to give him opportunities to be productive and post solid AVG

The Bench:
Ramon Castro, C
Julio Franco, 1B
Lastings Milledge, OF
David Newhan, UTIL

Overall Bench Rating: 7.0/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Tom Glavine (14/3.76)
2. Orlando Hernandez (13/4.48)
3. John Maine (12/4.07)
4. Oliver Perez (9/4.93)
5. Mike Pelfrey (11/4.53)

Top Starting Pitcher: Tom Glavine, LHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Mike Pelfrey, RHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Orlando Hernandez, RHSP

The Rest:
John Maine, RHSP: Always considered an above-average prospect, but may have played a bit over his head last season. BABIP indicates very good luck and unlikely to repeat long unearned run streak which embellished stats.
Oliver Perez, LHSP: Hard to figure out, but since he’s usually going undrafted, he could be worth a gamble with good offense behind him, relative job security, noticable maturation, and still solid K totals.

The Bullpen:

Ambiorix Burgos
Pedro Feliciano
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoeneweis
Aaron Sele
Joe Smith

Top Middle Reliever: Aaron Heilman
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Joe Smith
Overall Bullpen Rating: 6.5/10

The Closer: Billy Wagner
Prediction: 38 SV, 92 K, 2.40 ERA

Injuries:
Pedro Martinez, SP: Martinez, who will be out through the first half of the season as he recovers from shoulder surgery, still has an open timetable and doesn’t appear to be in any rush to return. An early-to-mid July return isn’t out of the question, but August seems more likely at this time. He struggled in the second half, but he’s savvy and smart enough to still be a successful starter even if the injury has some long-term effects.
Duaner Sanchez, RP: Sanchez was originally expected to be back at full health at the start of the season, but he struggled to throw consistently during the spring and further setbacks ensued, resulting on an extended period on the shelf. He is expected to miss 2-3 months and his future with the Mets is in jeopardy at this point.

Biggest Position Battle: #5 Starter

Super prospect Mike Pelfrey will start the season as the #5 starter with potential for much more, but he will be kept on a short leash. His pitch counts will likely be kept low and should he struggle as he did last season, veterans Aaron Sele or Chan Ho Park could get an instant promotion. The rotation in general is an achilles’ heel and the team can’t afford any rookie struggles in the middle of what will likely be a tight pennant race. Pelfrey has some great stuff, but the Mets may feel safer with an innings-eating veteran like Sele or Park, if Pelfrey isn’t lights out. Also in the mix will be competing prospect and 1st-rounder Philip Humber, who is improving quickly and could be fighting for a spot in the rotation sooner than most think.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Can an aging, albeit still most potent and powerful (in the NL), offense combined with a below-average rotation and revamped bullpen win enough games to stave off the Braves from returning to the top of the division?

Top 3Prospects Heading into 2007:

1. Mike Pelfrey, SP
2. Philip Humber, SP
3. Carlos Gomez, OF

Philadelphia Phillies

Projected Starting Lineup (with early prediction):

C: Rod Barajas (.248/20/55)
1B: Ryan Howard (.302/50/142)
2B: Chase Utley (.310/27/101)
SS: Jimmy Rollins (.281/22/78)
3B: Wes Helms (.272/14/54)
RF: Shane Victorino (.290/5/52)
CF: Aaron Rowand (.269/15/61)
LF: Pat Burrell (.263/30/96)
UT: Jayson Werth (.255/15/48)

Top Offensive Producer: Ryan Howard, 1B
Top Offensive Dud: Rod Barajas, C
Most Undervalued Player: Jimmy Rollins, SS
Most Overvalued Player: Aaron Rowand, CF
Most Likely to Rebound: Jayson Werth, UT
Most Likely to Regress: Wes Helms, 3B

The Rest:
Chase Utley, 2B: Joined David Wright as the second of the three-man club that finished above average in all five major categories; far and away the best 2B in baseball
Shane Victorino, RF: showed good contact abilities and should score a ton of runs in two-hole behind Utley/Howard, just waiting on speed to translate into double-digit SBs
Pat Burrell, LF: Much maligned for his up-and-down contact issues, he’s still a good source of power, runs, and RBIs, high strikeouts hurt, but good all-around #3 OF value

The Bench:
Chris Coste, IF/OF
Greg Dobbs, 3B
Abraham Nunez, INF
Carlos Ruiz, C

Overall Bench Rating: 4.5/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Brett Myers (14/3.52)
2. Cole Hamels (14/3.89)
3. Freddy Garcia (14/4.26)
4. Adam Eaton (10/4.75)
5. Jamie Moyer (10/4.43)

Top Starting Pitcher: Brett Myers, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Freddy Garcia, RHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Adam Eaton, RHSP

The Rest:
Cole Hamels, LHSP: Dominant lefty with great K rates, good control, exceptional velocity and refining his control. He has fantasy ace potential written all over him and could meet that potential as early as this year.
Jamie Moyer, LHSP: Gracefully aging thanks in part to great ocmmand and ability to utilize off-speed pitches, can still win double-digit games with league average ERA, but strikeout total could get ugly.

The Bullpen:

Antonio Alfonseca
Clay Condrey
Geoff Geary
Jon Lieber
Ryan Madson
Matt Smith

Top Middle Reliever: Geoff Geary
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Jon Lieber
Overall Bullpen Rating: 5.0/10

The Closer: Tom Gordon
Prediction: 36 SV, 72 K, 3.65 ERA

Injuries:
Freddy Garcia, SP: Limited due to mild bicep tenditis, Garcia, a workhorse in the past, should only miss his first or two turns in the rotation this season before making a full recovery. He’ll start the year on the 15-day DL, but it’s retroactive to March 23rd.
Jon Lieber, RP: Lieber could be back even sooner than Garcia as he heals from an oblique strain and could make some starts in the rotation. Oblique injuries have been hard to predict as of late, but all signs point to a speedy recovery.
Scott Mathieson, P: Mathieson will miss most, if not all of 2007, as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. He has started light throwing, but the Phillies still have an open timetable on him and right now the best case scenario would be an extended minor-league rehab stint by July/August.

Biggest Position Battle: Set-up Man

Antonio Alfonseca, who pitched all of 19 games and posted a 5.63 ERA and a .348 BAA last season, is likely to head a set-up-man-by-committee, and needless to say, the Phillies will not hesitate to replace him if he mirrors his ‘06 production. Alfonseca will likely share 8th inning opportunities to begin with and is only likely heading this group due to the experience factor. There should be a good number of holds to go around this season in Philly, and if Alfonseca doesn’t start racking them up, the Phillies could make a quick change and turn to younger, albeit not much more intriguing, arms like Ryan Madson, Matt Smith, or Geoff Geary. There’s also a very good chance a quality reliever is brought in via trade to hold down the fort in the 8th inning.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Can a much-improved rotation and powerful lineup overcome an inexperienced, injury-prone bullpen which lacks a dominant middle reliever, veteran leadership, any kind of stability, and is filled with low-upside arms and preserve leads for closer Tom Gordon?

Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:

1. Michael Bourn, OF
2. Zach Segovia, SP
3. Carlos Ruiz, C

Washington Nationals

Projected Starting Lineup (with early prediction):

C: Brian Schneider (.259/6/52)
1B: Dmitri Young (.276/21/78)
2B: Felipe Lopez (.278/10/55)
SS: Christian Guzman (.263/9/58)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (.293/24/102)
RF: Austin Kearns (.270/23/82)
CF: Nook Logan (.281/3/30)
LF: Ryan Church (.274/16/56)
UT: Chris Snelling (.258/7/43)

Top Offensive Producer: Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
Top Offensive Dud: Brian Schneider, C
Most Undervalued Player: Ryan Church, LF
Most Overvalued Player: Felipe Lopez, 2B
Most Likely to Rebound: Dmitri Young, 1B
Most Likely to Regress: Nook Logan, CF

The Rest:
Christian Guzman, SS: Formerly average offensive producer in AL put up maybe worst offensive season of all-time in ‘05 and missed all of ‘06, SBs down and never a great hitter to begin with
Austin Kearns, RF: Finally stayed healthy and showed good power production, even in RFK. He has good strength and if he can stay healthy in ‘07, could reap benefits of hitting behind Zimmerman
Chris Snelling, UT: Former top prospect who has struggled with injuries throughout career, had solid spring showing, but his only real asset is speed, and has low ceiling

The Bench:
Ronnie Belliard, 2B
Robert Fick, 1B/OF
Jesus Flores, C
Josh Wilson, INF

Overall Bench Rating: 5.0/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. John Patterson (11/3.99)
2. Shawn Hill (8/4.48)
3. Matt Chico (8/4.93)
4. Jerome Williams (8/4.36)
5. Jason Bergmann (6/5.25)

Top Starting Pitcher: John Patterson, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Shawn Hill, RHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Jerome Williams, RHSP

The Rest:
Matt Chico, LHSP: Diminutive lefty with blazing fastball, who could have streaky dominant periods during the season if he keeps his head on straight, should offer modest K rates
Jason Bergmann, RHSP: Converted reliever doesn’t have much upside, but could be a capable innings-eater on bad rotation, best suited for bullpen, where he’ll likely return soon

The Bullpen:

Micah Bowie
Jesus Colome
Ray King
Jon Rauch
Levale Speigner
Ryan Wagner

Top Middle Reliever: Jon Rauch
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Micah Bowie
Overall Bullpen Rating: 5.5/10

The Closer: Chad Cordero
Prediction: 30 SV, 64 K, 2.97 ERA

Injuries:
Luis Ayala, RP: Ayala missed all of last season after undergoing reconstructive elbow surgery in March of ‘06 and was placed back on the 15-day DL to start ‘07 as he still attempts his recovery. His time out of action will likely well past 15 days and he’ll likely have extended minor league rehab session before he is back in the majors.
Nick Johnson, 1B: Johnson, according to reports, is still hobbling around and is being hindered by his most recent right leg fracture. His timetable is very much up in the air and the possibility of missing the entire season has yet to be ruled out. A July/August, post-al-star break return seems like the best-case, and most likely, scenario at this time.

Biggest Position Battle: Left Field

Ryan Church entered the spring with the starting job in LF his to lose, but by the end of the spring, the Nats had a serious dilemma when Chris Snelling posted some very good numbers. Manager Manny Acta gave the edge to the power-hitting Church, but a platoon with the speedier Snelling is not of the question. Church has the edge for now, but Snelling will be lurking on the bench, as will their most MLB-ready and arguably best-hitting prospect, Kory Casto, who will start the season in AAA.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Can the cornerstones of the franchise still thrive despite weak supporting casts – will Ryan Zimmerman still be able to be a top 5 producer at third base with little protection, can John Patterson be worth a #3 fantasy starter spot despite being on an inferior squad with little run support, and can Chad Cordero be a dominant closer and post a solid save total with a team expected to be amongst the worst in baseball?

Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:

1. Shawn Hill, SP
2. Matt Chico, SP
3. Kory Casto, 3B/OF

AL West Team Fantasy Previews

Los Angeles Angels

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: Mike Napoli (.245/20/62)
1B: Casey Kotchman (.275/17/70)
2B: Howie Kendrick (.297/12/56)
SS: Orlando Cabrera (.276/10/68)
3B: Chone Figgins (.274/6/55)
RF: Vladimir Guerrero (.322/36/125)
CF: Gary Matthews, Jr. (.273/18/83)
LF: Garret Anderson (.278/20/85)
DH: Shea Hillenbrand (.292/16/79)

Top Offensive Producer: Vladimir Guerrero, RF
Top Offensive Dud: Mike Napoli, C
Most Undervalued Player: Orlando Cabrera, SS
Most Overvalued Player: Chone Figgins, 3B
Most Likely to Rebound: Casey Kotchman, 1B
Most Likely to Regress: Gary Matthews, Jr., CF

The Rest:
Howie Kendrick, 2B: Hit well in his ‘06 debut, top prospect with good contact hitting skills and ability to steal bases, sleeper at thin second base position
Garret Anderson, LF: Has strung together back-to-back 140+ game, 17 HR, 80+ RBI seasons, againg but still respectable AVG, good 4th OF
Shea Hillenbrand, DH: Struggled with AVG after move to NL, but posted career high in HRs, not enough walks or pop to start at 1B, but very solid back-up

The Bench:
Maicer Izturis, INF
Jose Molina, C
Tommy Murphy, OF
Robb Quinlan, 1B/3B

Overall Bench Rating: 5.5/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. John Lackey (15/3.70)
2. Jered Weaver (12/3.32)
3. Kelvim Escobar (10/3.53)
4. Ervin Santana (15/4.17)
5. Joe Saunders (10/4.68)

Top Starting Pitcher: John Lackey, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Kelvim Escobar, RHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Jered Weaver, RHSP

The Rest:
Ervin Santana, RHSP: Nasty stuff, good velocity, and youth indicate strikeout totals should improve and could give him #3 starter value in near future
Joe Saunders, LHSP: Lefty filler with good upside, but high ERA and struggles against righties could jeopardize rotation spot if Colon is healthy

The Bullpen:

Hector Carrasco
Dustin Moseley
Darren Oliver
Chris Resop
Scot Shields
Justin Speier

Top Middle Reliever: Scot Shields
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Chris Resop
Overall Bullpen Rating: 9.0/10

The Closer: Francisco Rodriguez
Prediction: 44 SV, 103 K, 2.10 ERA

Injuries:
Bartolo Colon, SP: Returning from rotator-cuff surgery, Colon has begun throwing 50 pitch sessions and has gotten his velocity back up to speed. He is still working on mixing his pitches, but should be ready for some minor league trials in April and coudld be back in the majors by May.
Chone Figgins, 3B: Figgins dislocated two fingers, which are currently in splints, placing him on the DL to start the season and will keep him out for upto six weeks. It could affect his ability to grip a bat, but it doesn’t appear as if it will affect his long term value this season, with his anticipated return tentatively scheduled before June 1st.
Juan Rivera, OF: Rivera, who broke his leg this winter, is still rehabbing slowly and his timetable is still unclear. He could return by the all-star break, but that is likely a best-case scenario. His flexibility, upside, and power make him worth stashing on the DL since a mid-season return is imminent with a good chunk of ABs to likely come in the process.
Jered Weaver, SP: Weaver will likely only miss his first two scheduled starts of the regular season due to bicep tenditis, but it will likely cause his pitch counts to be carefully monitored and could limit his workload and effectiveness early on this season.

Biggest Position Battle: First Base

Former #1 prospect Casey Kotchman will inherit the starting job, but at only age 23 and coming off a 2006 stint resulting in a .152 AVG, with the team likely to be mired in a pennant race his job is far from secure. Current DH and platoon 1B Shea Hillenbrand offers more experience and pop, but less defense, but could take over if need be. Also in the mix will be Robb Quinlan, who may be te best hitter of all three when he’s healthy and on his game, as seen by his .344 AVG in ‘04 and .321 in ‘06. An infield shift to move a hot prospect like Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick, or converted shortstop Brandon Wood isn’t entirely out of the question at this point either, nor is an out-of-house candidate like Todd Helton via trade.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Can the questionable supporting cast around Vladimir Guerrero overcome the struggles of 2006 (Napoli, Kotchman, Hillenbrand), the offseason issues (Matthews, Jr.), and the injury concerns (Figgins, G. Anderson, J. Rivera), and the inexperience (Kendrick, Izturis) and the other questions surrounding it to allow Vlad to be a top 5 fantasy producer and be productive enough to surpass the A’s for the division crown?

Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:

1. Erick Aybar, INF
2. Brandon Wood, SS
3. Dustin Moseley, SP

Oakland A’s

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: Jason Kendall (.282/3/48)
1B: Dan Johnson (.268/24/76)
2B: Mark Ellis (.262/14/57)
SS: Bobby Crosby (.253/21/70)
3B: Eric Chavez (.275/28/89)
RF: Nick Swisher (.260/32/93)
CF: Milton Bradley (.285/16/62)
LF: Shannon Stewart (.290/10/61)
DH: Mike Piazza (.277/26/84)

Top Offensive Producer: Nick Swisher, RF
Top Offensive Dud: Jason Kendall, C
Most Undervalued Player: Mike Piazza, DH
Most Overvalued Player: Bobby Crosby, SS
Most Likely to Rebound: Eric Chavez, 3B
Most Likely to Regress: N/A

The Rest:
Dan Johnson, 1B: Still shows good pop, but struggled mightily to start ‘06 and never rebounded. Current starter, but could be traded or platooned.
Mark Ellis, 2B: Below-average power and speed coupled with two sub-.250 seasons in last three full seasons and still some injury risk make him back-up option at best.
Milton Bradley, CF:Tools have regressed and potential tops out at 20/15 guy at best, still some off-field issues, but couldbe productive with consistent playing time
Shannon Stewart, LF: Returning from injury, still gives good AVG and potential for runs, but never had great power and speed may be sapped

The Bench:
Bobby Kielty, OF
Adam Melhuse, C
Donnie Murphy, INF
Marco Scutaro, INF

Overall Bench Rating: 4.5/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Rich Harden (12/3.41)
2. Dan Haren (14/4.06)
3. Esteban Loaiza (10/4.65)
4. Joe Blanton (13/4.43)
5. Brad Halsey (8/4.78)

Top Starting Pitcher: Rich Harden, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Dan Haren, RHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Esteban Loaiza, RHSP

The Rest:
Joe Blanton, RHSP: Young innings-eater with potential to be better, gave up way to many hits in ‘06 and got some lucky breaks to pick up 16 wins with below-average ERA/WHIP
Brad Halsey, LHSP: Token lefty without much endurance, low velocity and ceiling, but good mix of pitches. Low strikeout totals hinder any possible value.

The Bullpen:

Kiko Calero
Justin Duchscherer
Alan Embree
Chad Gaudin
Joe Kennedy
Jay Witasick

Top Middle Reliever: Justin Duchscherer
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Chad Gaudin
Overall Bullpen Rating: 7.0/10

The Closer: Huston Street
Projection: 35 SV, 72 K, 3.17 ERA

Injuries:
Bobby Crosby, SS: Crosby has been hindered by back problems much of spring, but it hasn’t limited his performance at the plate and he will open the season as the starter at SS. His ability to play back-to-back games and not be a liability in the field are still in question, which could hurt his ABs early on if forced into platoon.
Mark Kotsay, CF: Also suffering from back problems, Kotsay underwent surgery earlier this spring, which will likely put him out until July. He hasn’t been able to return to any form of conditioning yet and will have an approximate six-week program to complete before returning to the field.

Biggest Position Battle: #5 Starter

The A’s haven’t officially decided on Brad Halsey or Joe kennedy for the 5th starter spot, but neither starter-converted-to-reliever lefty appears to be ideal for the spot. Both good look in long relief and as effective pieces in the pen, but to open the season, the A’s need a lefty to fill the five hole in the rotation. The battle could go back and forth early on or could be decided by the acquisition of a veteran or promotion of a tempting young arm like Jason Windsor or Dan Meyer. This two-man race could expand quickly depending on Halsey’s (or Kennedy’s) rebuilt endurance and effectiveness upon returning to the rotation.

Biggest Fantasy Question:Can top offensive members, including Eric Chavez, Dan Johnson, and Shannon Stewart, have bounce back years and provide enough pop to absorb the loss of Frank Thomas, make up for the fact that the team doesn’t have a dominant go-to power hitter, and score enough runs to win another division crown?

Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:
1. Daric Barton, 1B
2. Travis Buck, OF
3. Jason Windsor, SP

Seattle Mariners

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: Kenji Johjima (.285/17/82)
1B: Richie Sexson (.267/32/106)
2B: Jose Lopez (.273/9/71)
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt (.285/11/53)
3B: Adrian Beltre (.270/25/85)
RF: Jose Guillen (.276/23/77)
CF: Ichiro Suzuki (.335/8/67)
LF: Raul Ibanez (.284/27/89)
DH: Jose Vidro (.280/9/52)

Top Offensive Producer: Ichiro Suzuki, CF
Top Offensive Dud: Jose Vidro, DH
Most Undervalued Player: Raul Ibanez, LF
Most Overvalued Player: Richie Sexson, 1B
Most Likely to Rebound: Jose Guillen, RF
Most Likely to Regress: Jose Lopez, 2B

The Rest:
Kenji Johjima, C: Solid debut season showed combination on modest pop and AVG, in his peak, likely to at east duplicate top-5 catcher performance of ‘06
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS: Underrated and undervalued, solid AVG, below-average but not to the degree of liability power, still developing with good speed
Adrian Beltre, 3B: Went from great to awful to slightly above average, he is what he is. High strikeouts, but 20+ HRs, mediocre AVG and handful of steals; back-end starter.

The Bench:
Willie Bloomquist, UTIL
Ben Broussard, 1B
Jeremy Reed, OF
Rene Rivera, C

Overall Bench Rating: 5.0/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Felix Hernandez (13/3.86)
2. Jarrod Washburn (11/4.10)
3. Miguel Batista (11/4.67)
4. Jeff Weaver (10/4.95)
5. Horacio Ramirez (7/4.51)

Top Starting Pitcher: Felix Hernandez, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Jarrod Washburn, LHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Jeff Weaver, RHSP

The Rest:
Miguel Batista, RHSP: Rubber arm with durability, but WHIP is too high, and is often bailed out by ability to induce double plays. Poor K/BB rates and aging.
Horacio Ramirez, LHSP: Oft-injured, but offers potential for a sub-4.00 ERA, despite relaitvely high WHIP and low K totals. Upside has diminished.

The Bullpen:

Jon Huber
Julio Mateo
Chris Reitsma
Arthur Rhodes
George Sherrill
Jake Woods

Top Middle Reliever: Arthur Rhodes
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Chris Reitsma
Overall Bullpen Rating: 5.5/10

The Closer: J.J. Putz
Projection: 32 SV, 94 K, 3.29 ERA

Injuries:
Mark Lowe, RP: Underwent arthoscopic surgery on his right elbow, there is currently no timetable for Lowe’s return. He would likely supplant a current reliever for a spot if he returns healthy by midseason, but he isn’t guaranteed to pitch at all in 2007 and his elbow will need ample time to heal in the process.

Biggest Position Battle: Setup Man

The Mariners’ bullpen as a whole is pretty solid, but they lack an elite arm to preserve saves for Putz. Effective utility pitcher and spot starter turned below-average closer, Chris Reitsma is in the mix but needs to return to form and has some slight injury concerns. The favorite is currenty non-roster invitee Arthur Rhodes, who returns to Seattle at age 37, after a mediocre showing in Philly. His velocity is down, but he still has good K rates and offers the most reliability. If his age starts to show, the Mariners could turn to numerous candidates, including successful lefty specialist George Sherrill, long reliever/spot-starter Jake Woods (in the Reistma mold), or Jon Huber, who posted a sub-2.00 ERA in his’06 debut in the bullpen.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Can King Felix finally reach his potential and develop into an ace and will the rest of the overpaid, average arms of the rotation provide enough veteran experience and eat enough innings to not overwork a middling bullpen?

Top 3 Prospect Heading into 2007:
1. Adam Jones, OF
2. Brandon Morrow, SP
3. Jeff Clement, C

Texas Rangers

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: Gerald Laird (.284/12/53)
1B: Mark Teixeira (.287/38/120)
2B: Ian Kinsler (.290/16/65)
SS: Michael Young (.320/17/91)
3B: Hank Blalock (.271/27/88)
RF: Nelson Cruz (.245/11/43)
CF: Kenny Lofton (.285/2/40)
LF: Brad Wilkerson (.247/21/63)
DH: Sammy Sosa (.255/30/74)

Top Offensive Producer: Mark Teixeira, 1B
Top Offensive Dud: Nelson Cruz, RF
Most Undervalued Player: Ian Kinsler, 2B
Most Overvalued Player: Brad Wilkerson, LF
Most Likely to Rebound: Sammy Sosa, DH
Most Likely to Regress: Kenny Lofton, CF

The Rest:
Gerald Laird, C: Finally gets chance to start, well-seasoned with good pop, but little speed and low potential for runs, not much upside, but could be a solid sleeper
Michael Young, SS: Arguably the most overlooked and undervalued hitter in baseball. Great AVG, good pop for his position, tripe-digit potential for runs and RBIs
Hank Blalock, 3B: Struggled mightily in 2006 and power appeared to be sapped. Still starter with good upside, but job security could be in question.

The Bench:
Marlon Byrd, OF
Frank Catalanotto, OF
Jerry Hairston, Jr., INF
Miguel Ojeda, C

Overall Bench Rating: 5.5/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Kevin Millwood (14/4.45)
2. Vincente Padilla (12/4.56)
3. Brandon McCarthy (10/4.05)
4. Robinson Tejada (10/4.89)
5. Jamey Wright (8/5.15)

Top Starting Pitcher: Kevin Millwood, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Brandon McCarthy, RHSP
Most Overvalued Starting Pitcher: Vincente Padilla, RHSP

The Rest:
Robinson Tejada, RHSP:Finished strong in 2006 with 2.32 post-all-star ERA. Not great source of K’s, high HR rate and WHIP, but could pick up good wins with average ERA
Jamey Wright, RHSP: Veteran filler who is league-average at best, and most often, below-average. No standout contributions and could struggle in hitters’ park

The Bullpen:

Joaquin Benoit
Scott Feldman
Kameron Loe
Ron Mahay
Akinori Otsuka
C.J. Wilson

Top Middle Reliever: Akinori Otsuka
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Scott Feldman
Overall Bullpen Rating: 6.0/10

The Closer: Eric Gagne
Projection: 29 SV, 81 K, 3.68 ERA

Injuries: N/A

Biggest Position Battle: Designated Hitter

Sammy Sosa appears to be the favorite for the DH spot, but considering he didn’t play at all in 2006, posted a .221 AVG in 2005, and still has some strides to make as a contact hitter, he will likely be platooned with Frank Catalanotto. Catalanotto complements well with good AVG and little pop, but could be called upon more as a 4th outfielder, emergency utility guy rather than a DH. Jason Botts, a 6′6” 250 lb., 26-year old established power hitter in the minors would appear to be a perfect, cheap solution to the job should either veteran struggle. If all else fails, back-up OF Marlon Byrd or recently called-up 3B prospect Adam Fox could get some at bats at DH, as they offer more less risk than Sosa, more speed than Botts, and more pop than Cat.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Can Eric Gagne stay healthy and return to form as one of the league’s most dominant closer and allow the bullpen to thrive with Akinori Otuska to thrive as the setup man, or will injuries strike again, forcing Otsuka to take over as closer and the putting the bullpen in a state of disarray?

Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:
1. Jason Botts, 1B
2. Edinson Volquez, SP
3. Eric Hurley, SP

Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, & Minnesota Fantasy Previews

I’ve come to the unfortunate conclusion that I won’t have adequate time to give a full, in-depth breakdown of all 30 teams before Opening Day, so I’m going to do my best with the express version here on out. Here’s the fantasy previews for the remaining AL Central squads.

Cleveland Indians

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: Victor Martinez (.304/17/89)
1B: Casey Blake (.266/24/74)
2B: Josh Barfield (.293/16/65)
SS: Jhonny Peralta (.263/20/66)
3B: Andy Marte (.258/16/58)
RF: Trot Nixon (.276/10/53)
CF: Grady Sizemore (.297/27/85)
LF: David Dellucchi (.262/26/73)
DH: Travis Hafner (.310/44/114)

Top Offensive Producer: Grady Sizemore, CF
Top Offensive Dud: Trot Nixon, RF
Most Undervalued Player: Josh Barfield, 2B
Most Overvalued Player: Jhonny Peralta, SS
Most Likely to Rebound: Travis Hafner, DH (rebounding from a late-season injury)
Most Likely to Regress: Casey Blake, 1B

The Rest:
Victor Martinez, C: Power has regressed, but average has improved; solid all-around production keeps his status as a top 3 catcer
Andy Marte, 3B: Marte was once considered the best hitting prospect in baseball, but has fallen off fast, and his ceiling is considerably lower than most expected
David Delluchi, LF: He can hit for average in small doses or power in larger doses, but all in all, tops out as a 4th OF

The Bench:
Ryan Garko, 1B
Hector Luna, INF
Jason Michaels, OF
Kelly Shoppach, C

Overall Bench Rating: 7.5/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. C.C. Sabathia (14/3.56)
2. Jake Westbrook (16/4.23)
3. Cliff Lee (15/4.75)
4. Paul Byrd (11/5.02)
5. Jeremy Sowers (13/4.10)

Top Starting Pitcher: C.C. Sabathia, LHSP
Starting Pitching Dud: Paul Byrd, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Jake Westbrook

The Rest:
Cliff Lee, LHSP: He’ll miss the beginning of the season due to injury, but should be back by May to be a durable #3 with good K rates
Jeremy Sowers, RHSP: Very low K totals could catch up, but he’s a low-risk, low-reward, savvy pitcher capable of a sub-4.00 ERA and low WHIP

The Bullpen:

Rafael Betancourt
Fernando Cabrera
Fausto Carmona
Jason Davis
Roberto Hernandez
Matt Miller

Top Middle Reliever: Rafael Betancourt
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Fausto Carmona
Overall Bullpen Rating: 4.5/10

The Closer: Joe Borowski
Projection: 35 SV, 58 K, 4.04 ERA

Injuries
Cliff Lee: Will start the season on 15-day DL due to abdominal strain, but expected to be 100% by May
Trot Nixon: A bad back has limited him to DH-ing duties in spring training, but he’s expected to be healthy enough to start season in RF

Biggest Position Battle: Right Field
If Nixon is unable to go, Casey Blake could likely shift, or the spot could be inherited by numerous potential back-ups, including last year’s starting LF, Jason Michaels, or prospects Shin Soo Choo and Franklin Gutierrez.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Can the bullpen improve upon their 30th ranked status of a year ago and preserve victories for the starters and allow Borowski to reach 30-35 saves?

Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:
1. Ryan Garko, 1B
2. Andy Marte, 3B
3. Adam Miller, SP

Detroit Tigers

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: Ivan Rodriguez (.293/12/63)
1B: Sean Casey (.283/9/57)
2B: Placido Polanco (.304/6/45)
SS: Carlos Guillen (.291/27/101)
3B: Brandon Inge (.264/22/86)
RF: Magglio Ordonez (.303/28/106)
CF: Curtis Granderson (.271/16/67)
LF: Craig Monroe (.270/26/89)
DH: Gary Sheffield (.284/31/97)

Top Offensive Producer: Carlos Guillen, SS
Top Offensive Dud: Sean Casey, 1B
Most Undervalued Player: Brandon Inge, 3B
Most Overvalued Player: Placido Polanco, 2B
Most Likely to Rebound: Gary Sheffield, DH
Most Likely to Regress: N/A

The Rest:
Ivan Rodriguez, C: Three straight seasons of productivity make him one of the safest, mid-level picks at catcher, and he still adds some steals
Magglio Ordonez, RF: As long as he can stay healthy, he has proven that he is capable of being a fantasy starter in OF/RF
Curtis Granderson, CF: He got some good publicity in the postseason, and is an all-around solid producer, despite poor AVG, but needs to reduce strikeout rate
Craig Monroe, LF: Power bat without much AVG or speed, he does his job well and makes for a good 4th OF who can put up good power production

The Bench:
Omar Infante, INF
Chris Shelton, 1B
Marcus Thames, OF
Vance Wilson, C

Overall Bench Rating: 6.0/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Jeremy Bonderman (16/4.21)
2. Justin Verlander (12/4.33)
3. Kenny Rogers (14/3.90)
4. Nate Robertson (13/3.41)
5. Mike Maroth (9/5.01)

Top Starting Pitcher: Jeremy Bonderman, RHSP
Starting Pitching Dud: Mike Maroth, LHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Nate Robertson, LHSP

The Rest:
Justin Verlander, RHSP: Coming off ROY season, could see regression after getting overworked late in season and already low strikeout totals
Kenny Rogers, LHSP: Low strikeout totals, age, and postseason pinetar scandal raise some big questions, but takes advantage of big park and should still win double-digit games

The Bullpen:

Roman Colon
Jason Grilli
Wil Ledezma
Zach Miner
Fernando Rodney
Joel Zumaya

Top Middle Reliever: Joel Zumaya
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Roman Colon
Overall Bullpen Rating: 8.5/10

The Closer: Todd Jones
Projection: 33 SV, 37 K, 3.75 ERA

Injuries: N/A

Biggest Position Battle: Utility Infielder
Most of the Tigers’ positions have already been decided, with the exception of a few bench spots and the back of the bullpen. The spot for utility infielder is particularly valuable, considering the injury histories of the right side of the infield (Polanco, Casey) and the fact that Guillen is expected to see time at 1B/3B/DH and opens up a hole at short. Omar Infante is the favorite, but journeyman Neifi Perez, light-hitting stud-defender Ramon Santiago, and non-roster invitee and pinch-run specialist Kevin Hooper are still in the mix.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Can a pitching staff that was terribly overworked late in the regular season and postseason stay healthy all season, despite a rookie and a 42-year old coming off 200+ IP, and Mike Maroth returning from major arm surgery?

Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:
1. Andrew Miller, SP
2. Brent Clevlen, OF
3. Ryan Raburn, 2B/OF

Kansas City Royals

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: John Buck (.251/15/54)
1B: Ryan Shealy (.267/28/90)
2B: Mark Grudzielanek (.291/4/41)
SS: Angel Berroa (.265/7/51)
3B: Alex Gordon (.285/26/100)
RF: Emil Brown (.280/19/79)
CF: David DeJesus (.291/10/61)
LF: Mark Teahen (.280/21/82)
DH: Mike Sweeney (.267/16/58)

Top Offensive Producer: Alex Gordon, 3B
Top Offensive Dud: Angel Berroa, SS
Most Undervalued Player: Ryan Shealy, 1B
Most Overvalued Player: Mike Sweeney, DH
Most Likely to Rebound: Mark Teahen, LF (from injury)
Most Likely to Regress: Mark Grudzielanek, 2B

The Rest:
John Buck, C: Looked like he was about to put it all together at end of ‘05, but came back with similarly disappointing ‘06, but could show more pop in ‘07
Emil Brown, RF: Back-to-back solid seasons of double-digit HRs, modest runs and SBs, and solid AVG prove he’s not a fluke and worthy of #4/#5 OF spot
David DeJesus, CF: Like Buck and Brown, has put together two nearly identical seasons. He offers all-around average numbers, with good chance to score runs

The Bench:
Esteban German, INF
Ross Gload, 1B
Jason LaRue, C
Reggie Sanders, OF

Overall Bench Rating: 7.0/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Gil Meche (12/4.48)
2. Odalis Perez (9/4.39)
3. Luke Hudson (9/5.45)
4. Jorge de la Rosa (7/4.97)
5. Brian Bannister (9/4.28)

Top Starting Pitcher: Gil Meche, RHSP
Starting Pitching Dud: Luke Hudson, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Brian Bannister, RHSP

The Rest:
Odalis Perez, LHSP: His value has certainly plummeted, but he can still be worthy of starting in big leagues if he can take advantage of defense behind him
Jorge de la Rosa, LHSP: Former intriguing prospect tops out at #5 starter, long reliever. Posted decent numbers in 2006, but may just be keeping spot warm for Zach Greinke

The Bullpen:

Jimmy Gobble
Joel Peralta
Ken Ray
David Riske
Joakim Soria
Todd Wellemeyer

Top Middle Reliever: David Riske
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Todd Wellemeyer
Overall Bullpen Rating: 5.0/10

The Closer: Octavio Dotel
Projection: 24 SV, 73 K, 4.45

Injuries:
Scott Elarton: He’s slated to miss the first two months due to shoulder surgery. He’s been throwing some simulated sessions, and if he’s needed, he could be back by mid-June.
Joe Nelson: He has decided to undergo surgery on his arm, which was no surprise, since he was way behind scheduled. His long-term status is currently unknown.
John Bale: He just had an MRI that revealed a shoulder strain in his pitching arm, which will temporarily put him on the shelf and take him off the Opening Day roster.
Mark Grudzielanek: He has been rehabbing from knee surgery much faster than expected and is now aiming at being ready for Opening Day, though it not a certainty at this point.

Biggest Position Battle: Designated Hitter
Mike Sweeney appears to be the favorite to open up the season as the DH, but with his flaky health over the past few seasons and his general ineffectiveness last season, his job security is almost non-existant. Ross Gload and Reggie Sanders are capable veterans on the bench, or an infield shift could put 6′5” 250 masher Ryan Shealy into the DH spot, where he’s best suited. Justin Huber, who will likely start at AAA, as well as back-up catcher Jason LaRue, and super-prospect Billy Butler are in the mix, as well.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Seeing as the team is clearly inferior to their division-mates, at which point do the veteran placeholders in the starting lineup and rotation get shipped out so that the intriguing bench players and top level prospects can showcase their talents on a regular basis?

Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:
1. Alex Gordon, 3B
2. Luke Hochevar, SP
3. Billy Butler, OF

Minnesota Twins

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: Joe Mauer (.329/16/81)
1B: Justin Morneau (.305/35/118)
2B: Luis Castillo (.302/4/45)
SS: Jason Bartlett (.281/8/46)
3B: Nick Punto (.279/5/53)
RF: Mike Cuddyer (.268/19/93)
CF: Torii Hunter (.275/27/91)
LF: Rondell White (.265/15/52)
DH: Jason Kubel (.273/17/70)

Top Offensive Producer: Justin Morneau, 1B
Top Offensive Dud: Rondell White, LF
Most Undervalued Player: Nick Punto, 3B
Most Overvalued Player: Luis Castillo, 2B
Most Likely to Rebound: Jason Kubel, LF
Most Likely to Regress: Mike Cuddyer, RF

The Rest:
Joe Mauer, C: The best catcher in baseball and fantasy baseball, bar none. AVG and OBP ridiculous for catcher of his age, nice SB and Run totals, and power stroke still developing
Jason Bartlett, SS: Played well in 2006 after rough patch in big leagues in 2005. Good steals, not much pop, but could be a .280-.290 hitter
Torii Hunter, CF: Put up career-best power numbers and entering contract year while still at peak. Steals down, but all-around value is at an all-time high in 2007

The Bench:
Jeff Cirillo
Lew Ford
Alejandro Machado
Mike Redmond

Overall Bench Rating: 7.0/10

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Johan Santana (20/2.83)
2. Ramon Ortiz (12/5.14)
3. Carlos Silva (10/5.25)
4. Boof Bonser (11/4.06)
5. Matt Garza (9/4.45)

Top Starting Pitcher: Johan Santana, LHSP
Starting Pitching Dud: Carlos Silva, RHSP
Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Boof Bonser, RHSP

The Rest:
Ramon Ortiz, RHSP: Gives up way too many HRs, low strikeout totals, below-average stuff and high BAA; he will struggle to eat innings while getting overmatched by other #2 starters
Matt Garza, RHSP: Still considered the top prospect in a deep farm system, he struggled in ML debut last season; has great velocity, dominated minors, and modest control, may just need a little more time to develop into top-of-the-line starter

The Bullpen:

Jesse Crain
J.D. Durbin
Matt Guerrier
Pat Neshek
Dennys Reyes
Juan Rincon

Top Middle Reliever: Juan Rincon
Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: J.D. Durbin
Overall Bullpen Rating: 9.5/10

The Closer: Joe Nathan
Projection: 37 SV, 102 K, 2.67 ERA

Injuries
Alejandro Machado: He has been sidelined all spring with shoulder tenditis, but he’s expected to recover by Opening Day, but could be placed on the DL, so that the Twins don’t have to return the Rule V draftee.

Biggest Position Battle: #5 Starter
Top pitching prospect Matt Garza has been penciled in the final spot of the rotation, but only four have been assured of their rotation spots thus far. Garza has been up and down since reaching the majors and has a slew of young arms to battle off, including Glenn Perkins, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker. Also in the mix is veteran journeyman Sidney Ponson, who despite his recent implosions, has made 2 starts so far this spring and is considered a legitimate contender.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Are the #2-#5 starters capable of at least eating innings with league-average numbers and take enough pressure off of Cy Young winner Johan Santana, the best bullpen in baseball, and a middle-of-the-pack offense so the Twins can repeat as division champs?

Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:
1. Matt Garza, SP
2. Glenn Perkins, SP
3. Alexi Casilla, 2B

Chicago White Sox Fantasy Preview

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: A.J. Pierzynski (.283/17/74)
1B: Paul Konerko (.290/38/114)
2B: Tadahito Iguchi (.275/15/72)
SS: Juan Uribe (.260/20/58)
3B: Joe Crede (.276/26/88)
RF: Jermaine Dye (.285/35/98)
CF: Brian N. Anderson (.250/7/45)
LF: Scott Podsednik (.273/4/42)
DH: Jim Thome (.274/39/102)

Top Offensive Producer: Paul Konerko, 1B

While the breakout years of Jermaine Dye and Joe Crede plus the re-emergence of Jim Thome stole the show in Chicago, team captain Konerko kept quietly producing, posting a .313/.381/.551 line with 35 HRs and 113 RBIs. Konerko has averaged 39 HRs and 110 RBIs over the past three seasons, has topped 100 RBI 4 times in the last 5 years, and his batting average has risen each of the last four seasons. Konerko has scored 98 and 97 runs respectively in ‘05 & ‘06, and while he does post triple-digit strikeout totals, he adds a respectable number of walks. He may lack the flashiness of some of the other hitters in the lineup, but his productivity and consistency is unmatched.

Top Offensive Dud: Brian N. Anderson, CF

As the case for most guys who can’t hit double-digit totals in HRs or SBs and still don’t come anywhere near .300, Anderson has kept his spot in the lineup due to his glovework. Luckily for Anderson, after a hideous .225-8-33-4 ‘06 campaign, he is still only 22 and has room for growth. He wasn’t a great hitter in the minors, but much better than his numbers of a year ago give him credit for. He’s 6′2”, 220 and he could develop a power stroke. He doesn’t have much higher of an offensive ceiling and he may still need time to reach it, so at this point, his fantasy value is non-existant.

Most Undervalued Player: A.J. Pierzynski, C

In six years as a starter, very year Pierzynski has beat out league-average catcher totals in either Runs & AVG or HR & RBI, and last year, for the first time, he beat league-averages across the board in all four categories. Pierzynski may be devalued because he doesn’t have the greatest of reputations or because he was on the wrong side of one of the most lopsided trades in history, but he’s developed into a solid offensive weapon. The best part is, he is still almost always available after the first 8-10 catchers have been taken and can be nabbed in the very latter stages on draft day. At age 30, he should still be considered in the midst of his peak, and after a two-year average of 63-17-60-.276 since ‘05, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better value at a “weak” position so late in so many drafts.

Most Overvalued Player: Jim Thome, DH

Thome proved that he is still a very good masher and adding on 100+ BB and .288 AVG and he showed some good all-around hitting skills. Unfortunately, at age 36 and a perennial strikeout leader, he will have a very difficult time maintaining similar numbers in his second season back in the AL. Thome can only be used in utility positions as he’s lost all eligibility in the field, and while he’s more than just the one-dimensional power producer, his power is far and away his best asset and there are players who are being drafted later on with similar power, more upside and speed, and better position eligibility. Thome should continue his power dominance if he’s healthy, but the peripherals could drop and after a pedestrian 12-32-.274 second half, it’s possible AL pitchers may have re-familiarized themselves with him.

Most Likely to Rebound: Scott Podsednik, LF

Podsednik is still well overvalued, since his lone contribution at this point in stolen bases, but he’s a much better hitter than his .261 AVG of a year ago indicates. There is still a possibility for lingering injury effects, but after posting a career low 40 SBs, one should expect that number to be on the rise as well.

Most Likely to Regress: Jermaine Dye, RF

The Rest:

Tadahito Iguchi has been a modest all-around producer and has posted nearly identical seasons in both major league campaigns, but with a significant spike in runs scored in ‘06 (97). He’s got good back-end starter value and should be a solid contributor to all areas in a good lineup in 2007……Juan Uribe’s tumultous offseasons could be responsible for his struggles at the plate, but he’s never displayed good plate discipline or speed and tops out at 20-25HR potential. With a dropping average and playing time in question, his stock is falling fast…..Some players put up monster years out of nowhere and they get labeled as guys who were playing over their head. Joe Crede put up a big year after years of mediocrity, but it appears as if he was always playing under his head. He might not match last season’s totals, but he’s a strong, young hitter who could fight for a spot in the top ten rankings at his position.

The Bench:

Darin Erstad, 1B/OF……Could end up starting and should get good number of at-bats, modest AVG and steals, but no real production
Toby Hall, C…………………Has shown flashes of offensive brilliance, but hasn’t been able to put it together for a full season and doesn’t draw enough walks
Rob Mackowiak, UTIL…Ultimate super-utility guy with great flexibility, and modest all-around tools, but can’t put them all together at same time
Pablo Ozuna, 2B/OF……Won’t match .328 AVG of ‘06, but very good against lefties and has 20-25 SB potential

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Javier Vazquez (14/4.70)
2. Jose Contreras (15/4.10)
3. Jon Garland (15/4.75)
4. Mark Buehrle (13/4.20)
5. Gavin Floyd  (8/4.90)

Top Starting Pitcher: Javier Vazquez, RHSP

Jose Contreras may have a higher ceiling at this point in their careers, but Vazquez has two things Contreras doesn’t: durability and 200K potential. Vazquez has started 32 or more games for seven straight seasons, each season resulting in 10 or more wins, 150 or more strikeouts, and never topping an ERA of 4.91. He’ll never be a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher in the AL, but he has good enough control to stay at league-average, the durability and offense behind him to win 15 games, and limited hitters to a .259 BAA last season. His ERA and win totals over the past few seasons have been rocky, but he still strikes hitters out, maintains an impressive WHIP, and takes the ball and contributes something each and every week.

Starting Pitching Dud: Jon Garland, RHSP

One of the best examples of how overrated wins are in baseball is the belief that Jon Garland is anything more than a #3 starter. Fortunately for Garland (and his fantasy owners), wins are not overrated in fantasy baseball and Garland has posted 36 of them in the last two years. Now factor in arguably the weakest team the White Sox have fielded in three years, the fact that Garland’s ERA went up a full run last season and that he doesn’t offer more than about .5 K/IP, and you could be looking at a significant decrease in wins. Garland was hit to the tune of .296 by opposing hitters and has allowed 26 or more HRs for four straight years. Strip away that big win total (which could happen in a tough division) and you’re looking at Gil Meche-lite. Garland does offer good durability, but his numbers are league-average at best.

Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Jose Contreras, RHSP

Contreras was clearly overhyped upon arriving in the majors, but has since fell to relative obscurity after getting traded to the White Sox in 2004. Obscurity has treated Contreras well, though, as he’s won a World Series and has become a savvy, smart pitcher with a good mix of pitches, and while he isn’t overpowering, hitters have been limited to a mere .242 BAA against him in his career. Contreras gives solid K rates, good win totals, and slightly above-average ERA and WHIP, which makes him a very good candidate for a sleeper pick as your #4/#5 starter.

The Rest:

Mark Buehrle was his usual savvy, sub-4.00 ERA self until an 0-5, 11.48 ERA July diminished any chances of another solid season. Buerhle finished with an unrespectable 4.99 ERA and a mere 98 K. He was never a big strikeout guy, so he may never be the same pitcher he was, but take away the month of July, and he had a 3.86 ERA for the rest of the season. He’s still valued pretty high, so he’s a high risk/high reward pick at this time…….The White Sox traded Freddy Garcia to acquire Gavin Floyd, who was formerly a top prospect for the Phillies. Floyd has electric stuff and all the measurables, but has yet to find his command. He could be a sleeper, but he’s still fairly raw and will see some much better hitters.

Projected Bullpen:

David Aardsma
Charlie Haeger
Mike MacDougal
Nick Masset
Andy Sisco
Matt Thornton

Top Middle Reliever: Mike MacDougal

The only thing preventing MacDougal from becoming a closer in his inconsistent injury history. MacDougal has pitched 68,13,68, and 29 games in each of the last four seasons, and according to the trend, this should be another healthy year. Over the past two seasons, MacDougal has posted a 2.82 ERA, averaging just shy of 1 K/IP, and has still shown an ability to handle high pressure situations and be a closer. He will rack up holds and K’s in his current role, but with Bobby Jenks’ second-half dropoff and spring training conditioning issues, MacDougal could get some save chances or perhaps usurp the job by midseason.

Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Nick Masset

It’s hard to single out a guy who has only thrown 8.0 IP in his major league career, but Masset is the most likely to get eaten alive in this division (a la Cliff Politte a year ago). Masset’s minor league and prospect career indicate more of a spot starter/journeyman future, and while he did well in his debut, he allowed a .300 BAA and didn’t show off any great skill in any particular area. He could handle mop-up duty well, but he’s a league-average arm in an above-average division with little experience and job security.

The Rest:

David Aardsma…….former first rounder with minor league closing experience, at age 25, could hit a nice peak as setup man
Charlie Haegar…….all-around average pitcher, but knuckleball gives added intrigue and value, good K rate, with starter potential
Andy Sisco…………massive pitcher with strong arm and good repetoire, but ERA doubled to 7.10 last year, but with 1 K/IP and his makeup, could rebound
Matt Thornton……good utility lefty reliever, who can eat innings and post modest production and limit hits

The Closer: Bobby Jenks

Jenks is genuine power pitcher with a huge 280-lb. frame, hitting triple-digits on the radar gun and striking out 130 in 109.0 career IP. He even possesses pretty good control for a guy who can throw with such amazing veloctiy and hasn’t been overly susceptible to the longball. He’s got nasty stuff and a closer mentality, but he doesn’t have much of a repetoire of pitches, he runs out of gas far too early in games and in the season, and his conditioning should cause a very short peak. Jenks has suffered arm fatigue numerous times in his short career and has already been hindered by it this spring training. It’s only a minor hit to his fantasy value, and he’s still a lock to begin the year as the closer, but after a dip in post all-star production and a second-half meltdown, he’s a tricky risk/reward closer. His value right now sits as a mid-tier #2 closer with a high ceiling and low basement. He’ll strike hitters out wherever he pitches, but could struggle with keeping a sub-4.00 ERA if he doesn’t improve his conditioning.

Injuries: With Jenks making a return after the arm fatigue scare, Scott Podsednik’s recovery from sports hernia surgery is the only primary injury concern at this point. Podsednik underwent surgery in January and while it was originally expected that he would miss the start of the season, he has made rapid progress and it would not be surprising that he is back at 100% in time for Opening Day. If the injury is still nagging, Podsednik will still likely start the season on the active roster, but could platoon with Erstad or see time off the bench or as a pinch runner. Time will tell whether or not it affects his speed on the basepaths, but right now, it doesn’t sound as if it will be a significant, lingering concern much past April.

Biggest Position Battle: #5 Starter

Once acquired from the Phillies, Gavin Floyd was automatically penciled in as the 5th starter and while it still appears to be his job to lose, he has some stiff competition. The job is still up for grabs and Floyd is feeling the pressure from quite a few darkhorse candidates. In-house prospects including the aforemention knuckleballer Haegar as well as Sean Tracey are capable pitchers, as is newly-acquired John Danks from the Rangers. Career minor-leaguer Heath Phillips, at age 25, has put together some impressive totals on the farm and has some good intrigue as big lefty with major league readiness. Floyd needs to show a noticable adjustment on his mechanics and improved control to keep the job, but with only a mediocre spring thus far, he hasn’t sealed the deal just yet. Haegar may be best suited for long relief for now, but Danks is an impressive, young lefty, who was a key part of the Brandon McCarthy trade and has some very good stuff. Also in the mix are rookies Lance Broadway and Gio Gonzalez, but they are long shots, and unlikely to really factor in. There’s plenty of candidates, but Floyd will likely stave them off for the time being.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Can the breakout hitters of 2006 maintain their level of offense in 2007 to make up for a lack of starting pitching?

Jermaine Dye, Joe Crede, Tadahito Iguchi, and Pablo Ozuna all put up the best offensive numbers of their MLB careers in 2006 and all played an integral part in keeping the White Sox in the hunt last season. Combined with the surprising re-emergence of AL Comeback Player of the Year, Jim Thome, and the White Sox got a much needed boost of offense from a unlikely slew of players. Thome’s track record indicates he’s capable of maintaining this level of power, but at age 36, will signs of aging show? Dye has always been a good hitter, but never was he an MVP hitter, and contract year or not, no one in their right mind should predict him to even match his totals of a year ago. Joe Crede’s breakout has been much anticipated, but he’s still victim to high strikeouts and will have to fight off the fluke tag from the get-go. Iguchi has quietly been a solid, consistent producer at 2B, but it’s hard to imagine three straight seasons of near identical production. Take away a 2 HR, 7 RBI game in Houston last year and his numbers are noticably closer to league-average. Nothing in Ozuna’s track record show anything remarkably close to being a .328 hitter, but with good speed and contact skills, he could be a valuable tool off the bench, but there is some serious potential to regress. The White Sox already have some offensive weaklinks in the lineup (Pods, Anderson, Uribe) and if these hitters can’t match their surprising totals of a year ago, this entire offense could struggle. Combined with a dropoff in pitching, and the whole team could struggle, so the fate may lie in the hands of these hitters.

Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:

1. Josh Fields, 3B – After annihilating AAA pitching to the tune of .305/.379/.515 last season, Fields put together his second straight above-average offensive season and has held his own at third base. If it weren’t for Crede’s breakout, he’d likely be starting at third this season. He’s 24 years old with nothing left to prove in the minors, and after adding 28 SBs to his already premier power, he could be an instant 20/20 guy if given an opportunity. A trade could in the works so that Fields can hit the majors this season, and if he does, he should be a solid fantasy bench player right off the bat.

2. Ryan Sweeney, OF -Like Fields, after posting a career .295 minor league average and hitting at every stop, Sweeney has nothing left to prove in the minors, but a logjam at his position hinders his value. With their three starters in place in the OF and three guys on the bench capable of handling the outfield and infield, Sweeney has nowhere to go until injury occurs. He’s a big, strong prospect who is more ML-ready than Fields, but with less power and speed. He’s got a good bat and would make for a solid #4/5 fantasy OF should he reach the majors.

3. Lance Broadway, SP – Broadway, the team’s first round pick in 2005, ate up AA hitting last season, with a sub-3.00 ERA and while he seems destined to perfect his trade at AAA, the opening in the five slot in the rotation gives him added intrigue. He’s developing a solid mix of pitches, he’s got a strong arm, and has shown the ability to handle a modest workload. He’s got a higher ceiling than Haegar, but still needs some fine-tuning in the minors. A call-up due to injury or ineffective from the #5 pitcher by midseason isn’t out of the question.

Toronto Blue Jays Fantasy Preview

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: Gregg Zaun (.263/14/57)
1B: Lyle Overbay (.291/19/92)
2B: Aaron Hill (.297/6/44)
SS: Royce Clayton (.243/4/41)
3B: Troy Glaus (.257/34/94)
RF: Alex Rios (.288/18/75)
CF: Vernon Wells (.285/35/112)
LF: Reed Johnson (.279/16/62)
DH: Frank Thomas (.267/36/109)

Top Offensive Producer: Vernon Wells, CF

Wells’ 2006 campaign exemplifies the talent he possesses and his ability to be a top-20 fantasy producer. At age 28 and on the heels of a massive contract extension, Wells is very much in his prime and primed to continue to produce in every aspect on fantasy baseball. The biggest knock on Wells has been his year-to-year consistency, and while his batting average has fluctuated over the past five seasons, he still owns a lifetime .288. In additional to a respectable batting average, Wells has topped 23 HRs in each of the past five seasons and has driven in 97 or more four of those seasons. Wells put it all together last year, hitting .309-32-106, and posting career highs in walks (54) and stolen bases (17). If he continues to produce at this level into his peak years, he could put up Carlos Lee-esque production, especially with a great lineup around him.

Top Offensive Dud: Royce Clayton, SS

Clayton joins him 10th team this season, and as the nine teams before the Blue Jays can tell you, he is in the starting lineup for one reason – his defense. Unfortunately, his defense, like his hitting, has deteriorated. So, the Blue Jays will be potentially forced to endure 162 games of mediocre defense and absolutely no hitting from the shortstop position. Clayton, as a 37 year-old journeyman, never had any fantasy value at his peak almost a decade ago and cetainly has none now. He’s a lifetime .258 hitter (which, coincidently, is what he hit last season) and he has hit a whopping 4 HRs over the last two seasons. He doesn’t score a lot of runs, draw walks, and while he can still steal 10-15 bases it isn’t enough to even warrant him consideration for a roster spot on any fantasy team.

Most Undervalued Player: Lyle Overbay, 1B

Overbay put together two very good seasons in Milwaukee in ‘04-’05, but he was continually overlooked thanks in part to his relatively low HRs, his mild-mannered approach, and the focus on some of the younger stars the Brewers were bringing up through the system. Overbay was freed up, set to Toronto, took over as the starting first baseman, and had it all come together. He doesn’t offer much more than 20 HRs a season, but with an average likely to hover around .300, along with an RBI total that topped 90 last season and the ability to draw walks, he doesn’t need to be a HR hitter, especially in this lineup. He is the prototypical doubles hitter, who takes advantage of his skill set, and has tremendous fantasy value, but most people overlook it because as a 1st baseman, they want to see 30+ HRs on his stat sheet. He’s starter material, who can still be unturned in the middle rounds of most drafts.

Most Overvalued Player: Reed Johnson, LF

After last year’s 12-49-.312-8 season, Johnson will inevitably draw some attention as a potential #3 OF starter. When Johnson is on a hot streak, there’s no denying he’ll put up numbers capable of starting, but his hot streaks never seem to last long enough. Johnson is a good all-around outfielder, but has a low ceiling, much lower than last year’s stats. He could have been one of the prime beneficiaries of luck last season, with one of the best batting averages on balls put in play and doing a solid chunk of his damage against the Devil Rays. Johnson offers modest power, but he doesn’t draw walks and is unlikely to hit anywhere near .312 again in 2007. He may have some value as a bench player, should he be able to sustain a level of play relative to last season, but he definitely isn’t fantasy starter material.

Most Likely to Rebound: Alex Rios, RF

Riose posted solid final numbers (.302-17-82-15), but was on pace for a much bigger year prior to going on the DL on July 1st with a staph infection. He has five-tool talents, a good stroke, and the ability to hit for average and power, and tack on stolen bases. Prior to his staph infection, he hit .330-15-53, but after returning, he put up a disappointing .261-2-29. The struggle was attributed to his timing being off due to the lingering effects of the issue, but it has since said to be resolved, which could mean big things for Rios in ‘07.

Most Likely to Regress: Frank Thomas, DH

The Rest:

Gregg Zaun was half of one of the best offensive tandems at catcher in all of baseball last season, but with Bengie Molina gone, he will be forced to shoulder the load. He has peaked offensively over the last three years (starting at age 33) so he’s hard to project, but it doesn’t appear as if he’ll be much of a fantasy contributor…..Aaron Hill gives the Blue Jays a pure contact hitter, fir for the #2 spot in the lineup. He doesn’t have much power or speed, but should score runs and maintain a good average, giving him Mark Grudzielanek-esque value at 2B…..Troy Glaus is the Jason Giambi version of third basemen, his primary asset is power, and despite his low batting average and high strikeouts, he is in a good lineup and can draw walks, so at least he can score a good number of runs.

The Bench:

Adam Lind, 1B/OF…….Tore up ML-hitting in short stint and showed good power stroke, playing time in question, but darkhorse ROY candidate
John McDonald, SS…….Will likely platoon with Clayton at SS and see time in INF, but carries no bat and little speed
Jason Phillips, C…………Should get good number of at-bats, but hitting .230 over last three seasons and not much upside
Jason Smith, INF……..All-around back-up, who can fill many voids, but despite moderate power/speed combo, carries a fairly light bat

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Roy Halladay (17/3.07)
2. A.J. Burnett (14/3.76)
3. Gustavo Chacin (12/4.75)
4. Tomo Ohka (9/4.12)
5. John Thomson (7/4.83)

Top Starting Pitcher: Roy Halladay, RHSP

Nobody, but nobody, is in Johan Santana’s league at this stage, but when Roy Halladay is healthy, he may be the closest thing in baseball to a dominant, consistent ace on which a team could be built around. Unfortunately for Halladay, injury has struck in each of the last three seasons. Fortunately for Halladay and his fantasy owners, he’s good enough that he still has some serious fantasy value even if he goes down with injury, as noted by his last two campaigns (12 W/2.41 ERA in ‘05, 16W/3.19 ERA in ‘06). When healthy, he’s a #1 fantasy starter, who can eat innings and maintain a low BAA and WHIP. Unfortunately, his strikeout total has dwindled to the point of slightly-below-league-average standards, but he makes up for it with his all-around value. He may be forced to rely more on his defense, but with the additions of guys like Royce Clayton, it shows Toronto is committed to keeping its star pitcher productive.

Starting Pitching Dud: John Thomson, RHSP

Thomson is easy to single out as the only pitcher over 30, coming off of a 2-7/4.82 ERA campaign, but he is really the ultimate weaklink in this rotation. He got off to a hot start, posting a 1.93 ERA in April, but put up a 6.62 the rest of the way. Thomson at his best was merely a #4/#5 innings-eater with durability issues, susceptibility to the long ball, and league average strikeout rates, which happens to be his ceiling at this stage of his career. He could give the Jays a couple of impressive starts early on, but his fantasy value, as their #5 starter fending off more talented prospects, is nil right now.

Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: A.J. Burnett, RHSP

Burnett was the poster child for undeserving pitchers getting big contracts going into last season, but after the some oft he deals given out this offseason, he has been entirely overshadowed in that respect. His value was clearly hurt by a lot of the negative publicity, and despite him getting injured early on (as most nay-sayers predicted he would), he came back strong and put together respectable final numbers of 10 wins, 3.98 ERA, and 118 K’s in only 135 IP. He had one of the worst batting averages of bals put in play, showing that he was fairly unlucky, and his mechanics were a little rusty early on, but he pitched like a true #2 starter down the stretch. His value is still limited by those scared off by injury, but he showed good druability earning a decision in 14 of his last 15 starts, and he has started at least 19 games in five of the last six seasons. He could prove to be a fairly cheap #3/#4 starter with the potential for much more.

The Rest:

Gustavo Chacin is the key to the rotation as he is the relative midpoint between the dominante #1-2 starters and the #4-5 innings eaters. His ERA could fluctuate throughout the course of the season, but he has a penchant for winning games, despite low strikeout totals…Tomo Ohka may have a low ceiling, but he can be successful as a low-mistake, finesse pitcher. Unfortunately, he has been hampered with injuries, and with low strikeout totals, he relies on an above-average ERA to give him any fantasy value, and his ERA hit a career full-season worst high of 4.82 in 2006.

Projected Bullpen:

Jeremy Accardo
Scott Downs
Jason Frasor
Brandon League
Shaun Marcum
Brian Tallet

Top Middle Reliever: Jason Frasor

Frasor proved to be an adequate closer before the arrival of B.J. Ryan and has shown the capabilities to fill the void caused by the departure of Justin Speier as the set-up man. Frasor has put up two unspectacular, but solid seasons of filler middle relief innings, in which he raked in a decent number of holds, while striking out nearly a batter an inning, and while his ERA jumped up a run to 4.32 last season, he still owns a career sub-4.00 ERA of 3.82. He doesn’t have the stuff to blow hitters away, but he’s a smart, consistent pitcher, who could quietly fill the void in the 8th inning, with modest strikeout totals, a decent ERA, and a handful of Holds.

Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Jeremy Accardo

Everyone knew the Blue Jays had to move Shea Hillenbrand or face getting nothing in return, but it would’ve appeared that they could’ve gotten more than just Accardo, a 26-year old reliever, with a career 4.93 ERA, who is best suited for long-relief mop-up duty. He never had high strikeout rates throughout his career, but when he posted 40 K’s in 40 IP with a marginal 4.91 ERA in San Francisco before the trade, he must’ve shown some appeal. Unfortunately, he returned to his normal league-average strikeout rates and was feasted on by the superior-hitting American League to the tune of .325, resulting in a 5.97 ERA upon arrival. He’s struggling to win a job in the bullpen this season and even if he does, he should be avoided at this point.

The Rest

Scott Downs………..solid lefty who can spot-start or handle multiple innings in relief, doesn’t do anything spectacular, but decent all-around production
Brandon League…..Posted 2.53 ERA, 1.01 WHIP in ‘06, and has high ceiling, good K rate, but will need to hold up with expanded workload
Shaun Marcum……could win 5th starter spot, but if not, will see action as right-handed long reliever, struggles with ERA, but good upside
Brian Tallet…………..6′7”, lanky, converted starter, had good year, but better than his career averages and still has a lot to prove

The Closer: B.J. Ryan

In his two full seasons as a closer (one in Baltimore, one in Toronto), Ryan has recorded 74 saves, 186 strikeouts in 142.2 IP, a 1.90 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a sub-.200 BAA. Ryan doesn’t have electric stuff, but an overpowering fastball and enough of a back-up repetoire to not let hitters completely figure him out. He has the size and power arm of a dominant closer in the making, and while he may have pitched slightly over his head with a 1.37 ERA last season, it may not have been that much over his head. With Rivera gradually pushing 40 and Papelbon returning to the rotation, he and Joe Nathan should be considered 1a and 1b in the AL in the closer department. People will note that his ERA rose 1.28 after the all-star break, but he still posted a mere 2.12 in the second half, and despite a mid-season cooldown, he picked up 9 saves and 1 win and allowed but one run in his final 10 appearances in 2006.

Injuries: Two of the Blue Jays’ top young relievers, Brandon League and Davis Romero, have been held out of action thus far. League has been hampered by a sore shoulder that has limited his throwing thus far and could push back his timetable and cause him to miss the start of the season. League was slated to be the primary 8th inning man this offseason, but will likely surrender the role to the more experienced Jason Frasor, partly due to the setback. Romero has also been bothered by a should injury that forced him to miss a good portion of pre-spring training practices, but he should gradually get back into the flow now, but is still likely to start the season in the minors.

Biggest Position Battle: Shortstop

While the fight for the right to play shortstop may be quite the battle with a variety of possibilities, none of them will likely have much bearing on fantasy baseball owners. Right now, the light-hitting, 37-year old incumbent, Royce Clayton, is slated as the starter thanks due to defensive prowess and veteran presence, but it has already been announced that John McDonald will likely force a platoon between the two. McDonald is also a defensive specialist with modest speed, but a very light bat. So, seeing as they share a similar skill set and are both light-hitting righties, a platoon seems redundant. Which is why there is the possibility of another candidate emerging and earning playing time at short. Jason Smith, who is a super-utility player, was selected in the Rule V Draft and is expected to stick with the team, and should get some time at short. Meanwhile, former first-rounder, Russ Adams, with the most upside of all, will attempt to bounce back in AAA after a horrific showing both offensively and defensively last season. Should he make improvements and return to the form expected, he could make all three obsolete, but he has some serious development ahead of him first.

Biggest Fantasy Question: Can the starting pitching stay healthy and not cause the bullpen to be overworked?

Here’s a scary fact: All five of the Blue Jays tentative starting pitchers missed some portion of the 2006 season due to an injury. Sure, Roy Halladay still made 32 starts, and guys like Chacin, Ohka, and Burnett dealt with and sorted out their injury problems early on in the season, but it raises the qestion of health nonetheless. Halladay and Burnett are the foundation of this team, and both have had multiple years of injury, so the general success of this entire staff is likely built on the health of these two arms. Chacin bounced back from injury aorund midseason, though not quite as effective as in his rookie year, but showed capabilities of a durable #3 starter. Meanwhile, both Ohka and Thomson, have also had significant health issues on their track records, yet will be expected to be league-average inning eaters. Should they not be able to stay healthy and fulfill their roles, we could see a moderately inexperienced, shallow bullpen find themselves overly taxed by midseason. Luckily for the Jays, they have two members of the pen in Downs and Marcum, who can eat innings and still make the transition back to starter, as well as a whole bunch of hungry arms who are borderline-capable starters who will start the year in AAA. Dustin McGowan, Josh Towers, Casey Janssen, and Ty Taubenheim give the Jays the added depth at starter, should injuries strike their starters again. They may not be glamorous options, but they are capable, and could prevent the bullpen from getting overworked.

Top 3 Prospects Heading into 2007:

1. Adam Lind, OF – Lind offers everything you look for in a nice late-round fantasy sleeper prospect. He’s got good size and strength, he should be locked in as the team’s 4th outfielder and get a good chunk of at-bats, he’s hit well at every stop in the minors and is major-league ready. Best of all, he seems naturally slotted for a spot in left field in the future, and only Reed Johnson stands in the way from a starting job. He hit .394 in AAA before coming up and hitting .367 in the majors. He has the capabilities of a .280-.290 hitter who can offer 15-20 HRs right away.

2. Curtis Thigpen, C – A top-tier defensive catching prospect, Thigpen carries a decent bat, but not enough to have an immediate fantasy impact. He offers more upside than both tentative big-league catchers, so he could see some time in the bigs, should either struggle or get hurt. He owns a .279 lifetime batting average in the minors, with mild speed and power. If all pans out, he could be a Paul LoDuca-type hitter with moderate offensive value, should he reach his peak in the next few seasons.

3. Davis Romero, RP – A converted starter, who owns a sub 4.00 ERA as both a starter and reliever in the minors after seven seasons, he is as major-league ready as they come. He’s a 23 year old lefty, who has shown good durability, a good mixup of pitches, and some finesse. He owns a ridiculous strikeout rate well over 1 K/IP in the minors and could be a sleeper for a spot in the back of the bullpen. Should he make the team, he gives them an intriguing young arm with some very good upside.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays Fantasy Preview

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: Dioner Navarro (.265/11/60)
1B: Ty Wigginton (.258/27/82)
2B: Jorge Cantu (.278/19/78)
SS: Ben Zobrist (.262/7/53)
3B: Akinori Imawura (.303/14/72)
RF: Delmon Young (.293/30/96)
CF: Rocco Baldelli (.305/20/91)
LF: Carl Crawford (.298/16/76)
DH: Jonny Gomes (.257/29/74)

Top Offensive Producer: Carl Crawford, LF

Jose Reyes finds himself in the discussion of top five fantasy players, but Carl Crawford doesn’t. Why? Because, plain and simple, the Devil Rays suck. Crawford’s 18 HRs and 58 SB show that he has power to spare and speed to burn. He drove in an impressive 77 RBIs for a leadoff-type guy, primarly built on speed. He keeps an AVG hovering around .300 or better and while he doesn’t draw enough walks, he has a better eye than the aforementioned Reyes. The difference is, in the best lineup in baseball, Reyes managed to score 33 more runs on only 11 more hits. Crawford does it all and is a solid contributor to every category on any fantasy team regardless of how bad his team in reality may be.

Top Offensive Dud: Ben Zobrist, SS

Zobrist was a nice mid-level prospect going into 2006, but had no business starting on any ball club, Devil Rays included. Zobrist was overmatched from the get-go and while he improve gradually, he still finished with a ghastly .224/.260/.311 line and had just 12 extra-base hits in 183 at-bats. He has shown good hitting tools in college and in the minors, but he never showed favorably-translatable skills, and while we should expect to see a significant rise in AVG should he be the starter in 2007, he doesn’t have enough power or speed to warrant any fantasy value at this point.

Most Undervalued Player: Rocco Baldelli, CF

It’s hard to consider anyone who’s only played in 92 games over the past two seasons an undervalued commodity, but Baldelli truly is. When he’s healthy, as he has been for much of his professional career, Baldelli is a five-tool talent who may not have Crawford’s speed, but has a leg up in the power and contact-hitting department. Baldelli had 46 extra base hits (including 16 HRs), 57 RBIs, 110 hits, and 10 SBs in just over a half-season’s work last year. His name has been rumored on the trading block, which could only work in his favor, and if he’s healthy, he’s definitely starter material. Most will back off due to injury, but he’s a great all-around filler as your #3 OF, who can often be found in the very latter stages on draft day.

Most Overvalued Player: Ty Wigginton, 3B

Wigginton became a hot pick-up in many leagues last year, thanks solely in part to his 24 HRs. He does possess above-average power as his 24 HR and 25 doubles would suggest, but like many other .265 career hitters, it is his sole asset. Wiggy did post a respectable .275 hitter, but he strikes out far too often, is way too sluggish on the basepaths, and is not an RBI-machine, regardless of the lineup. He offers good positional flexibility as he can handle almost any infield position, but he’s best suited as your utility fantasy infield, not starting, as some have drafted him to do.

Most Likely to Rebound: Jorge Cantu, 2B

Most Likely to Regress: Akinori Iwamura, 3B

He should be able to hold his own with the bat this year, but expect significantly less power and he could have a difficult initial adjust period. Ichiro kept his average and run totals up, but many more in a similar mold, a la Kazuo Matsui and Tsusyoshi Shinjo, have not, and Iwamura looks closer to Kaz than he does Ichiro at this stage of the game. It’s hard to regress as a technical rookie, but I meant it in the sense that he won’t match his numbers in Japan.

The Rest:

Dioner Navarro finally gets his chance to start, after being a top-rated prospect at catcher for the past couple of seasons. He won’t offer much pop, but could prove to be worthy of a starting role in larger leagues…….Jonny Gomes started off scorchingly hot before coming to an ice cold halt, after hitting .124 in 105 post all-star at-bats. His dwindling power and complete dropoff in AVG were attributed to a shoulder injury that eventually caused him to miss the remainder of the season. With the shoulder repaired, we could see Gomes return to the form we saw in April last year (11/23/.305)……..No prospect has more to offer offensively this season than Delmon Young. Young has every tool and has enough of each to flaunt. He’s a top 10 fantasy player just waiting to happen. If he keeps his head on straight, he should be the ROY favorite in the AL and could give you 20-30 HRs with a respectable AVG and a side of 15-20 SBs.

The Bench:

Elijah Dukes, OF….Can back-up in all 3 OF spots, has good raw power and upside, but has some major off-the-field issues and is a liability at this point
Greg Norton, IF…..17 HRs with .296 AVG n ‘06 as good as its going to get, Norton has good versatlity, but a light bat in large workloads
Josh Paul, C………..Carried for his defense, he won’t get too many at-bats regardless of who’s starting, doesn’t off much of anything in fantasy
B.J. Upton, SS/3B…20/20 potential, but his atrocious defense has limited playing time, swing still needs work, infield a mess so could get ABs this year

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Scott Kazmir (15/3.48)
2. James Shields (11/4.76)
3. Jae Seo (9/4.04)
4. Casey Fossum (7/4.93)
5. Tim Corcoran (9/4.46)

Top Starting Pitcher: Scott Kazmir, LHSP

Kazmir is not only the Devil Rays’ best starting pitcher, he is the only pitcher in the organization that has any fantasy value at this point. He’s better than just being labeled as the best pitcher in the worst rotation in baseball, he is a crafty lefty, with an outstanding arsenal of pitches and great velocity. He has the tools, the makeup, and the potential to be a top 10 fantasy pitcher. He lacks the run support, defensive help, and durability to win a ton of games, but his all-around package will make up for it. He has legitimate 200 K potential, limits his mistakes and keeps his HRs allowed total low. He still has work to do and has some questions to answer regarding his health and the strength of his arm, but he’s looked sharp thus far and should be 100% come Opening Day, giving him the look of a solid #2 fantasy starter.

Starting Pitching Dud: Casey Fossum, LHSP

Even in the worst rotation in baseball, Fossum is still a liability. He is best suited as a Quadruple-A’er who can make a spot start, but he has made 77 starts in the last three seasons, most likely due to the fact that he’s a lefty. His strikeout rates aren’t terrible and he has mdoest command, but he doesn’t have the potential for anything above mediocrity and has yet to reach that potential. He could do well in a mop-up role, but will continue to be overmatched as a starter. His career ERA is well over 5.00, he is susceptible to the long ball, and averages well more than 1 H/IP every season.

Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Tim Corcoran, RHSP

Corcoran still has little to no value in any league that could remotely resemble “standard” settings, but he could be an intriguing, very deep sleeper. He doesn’t do anything overly well and he doesn’t have the stuff nor velocity to blow anyone away or dominate hitters, but he showed good poise, has good versatility as a starter or reliever, and has the potential to be an innngs eater. He gives up too many walks and doesn’t strikeout enough batters, but he’s consistent and was much better than his post all-star 1-9 record indicated. He’s not worth a roster spot, but he’s worth keeping on the radar, should an injury strike and you’re in need of low-risk filler innings.

The Rest:

James Shields had a quietly solid rookie season, thanks in part to the obscurity of Tampa Bay and the amazing rookie class of 2006. He ’s big-bodied, strong-armed, and comes close enough to 1 K/IP to have some value in deep leagues. He’s still raw and fairly hittable, but he made good strides and has some upside……Jae Seo followed up his stellar 2005 campaign with a dud in 2006 and has a lot to prove. He’s a good finesse pitcher, who has a high ceiling when he’s on his game, but he makes a lot of mistakes and doesn’t have overwhelming power. He could rebound, but he’s never likely to put anywhere near 2005 numbers in the AL.

Projected Bullpen:

Shawn Camp
Edwin Jackson
Ruddy Lugo
Dan Miceli
Chad Orvella
Jon Switzer

Top Middle Reliever: Ruddy Lugo

Lugo isn’t a very intriguing reliever in any league, but he’s the best the Devil Rays have to offer at this point. He may not have the upside of Edwin Jackson or the experience of Dan Miceli, but he put together a solid rookie season, a sub-4.00 ERA and showed the ability to pitch on short rest and throw multiple innings effectively in an appearance last year. Due to those aforementioned attributes as well as the lack of depth on this staff, Lugo not only could give you some solid relief numbers and has a chance to see time as closer, should Seth McClung struggle. He’s young and has shown potential for growth, so while he may not rack up Holds (thanks in part to playing in Tampa Bay) or K’s, he’s a decent deep sleeper, with the possibility of getting in the mix for some saves.

Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Dan Miceli

Miceli’s best asset at his peak (which wasn’t very good to begin with) was holds, which he won’t earn many of on a perennial last-place Devil Rays team. His upside is nil at age 36 coming off surgery. He walked more than he struck out last season and looked very shaky as the closer. On a team built on youth, he is unlikely to get thrust back into the closer position so he will likely have little to offer to any category even if he’s healthy, which is a fairly big if.

The Rest:

Shawn Camp……..can eat innings, limit his walks, and held his own as a closer, but low upside and .313 BAA last season
Edwin Jackson….still could be converted into starter, once top prospect, has struggled with walks and consistency
Chad Orvella…….hitters figured him out in 2006, as his BAA rose 100 points, his ERA doubled to 7.20, and he lost all fantasy value
Jon Switzer……….mediocre peripherals, low strikeout rates, and crushed by righties could limit him to LOOGY role in 2007

The Closer: Seth McClung

McClung is 6′6”, 250 pounds and has a cannon for an arm. He was moved to the bullpen, not so much because he has the makeup of a closer, but more because he couldn’t cut it as a starter and was far too intriguing of a pitcher to just throw in a mop-up role. He’s got great velocity, but he doesn’t have much of a repetoire to work with, he lacks consistency and discipline and is a base-on-balls machine. He doesn’t have much to hold off in terms of closer competition, but his inability to keep the ball on the ground or in the strikezone on a consistent basis, regardless of his powerful arm and raw upside, could make it difficult to sustain the closer job. He’s high-risk, high-reward and will get drafted inevitably because of the closer tag, but especially on a losing team, there are a lot of middle relievers who will give you more value at this point. The biggest issue here, when all this is considered, is that he doesn’t even offer great strikeout rates to absorb his lack of consistency.

Injuries: There isn’t any significant injuries news in Tampa Bay right now, with Scott Kazmir’s shoulder inflammation looking to be a thing of the past. The coaches are still treading cautiously due to his superstar potential, but he’s been pitching well off a mound and should make his spring training debut soon. Similarly, Jonny Gomes, who missed the end of last season with shoulder surgery, arrived at camp reportedly in the best shape of his life and showing no lingering effects of last year’s injury.

Biggest Position Battle: Third Base

The job is Akinori Iwamura’s to lose, but should he falter at any point from now until September, he will have some serious competition to fend off. Iwamura’s most likely competitor is former first-round pick and #1 organization prospect, B.J. Upton, who carries a big bat and some serious speed, but his offensive productivity has been countered by his terrible glove and poor batting eye. He should make a push from the bench, as will another former top prospect in Brendan Harris. Harris has the look of a utility infielder, who can do everything well, but nothing great, but he has upside and could still put it all together as a starter. Also, on the current roster, both tentative first base options, Ty Wigginton and Greg Norton, can handle the hot corner, have good experience, and offer more power than would Iwamura. To top it all off, Evan Longoria, the Devil Rays first round pick last season, is in major-league camp this spring, has shown all around good hitting tools, and appears much improved as a player. He will likely start the year in the minors, but should he match his potential quickly, the Devil Rays won’t hesitate bringing him up to the big leagues.

Biggest Fantasy Question:

Can any of the Devil Rays’ current starters or prospects, other than Scott Kazmir, put together productive seasons and be a legitimate fantasy option in 2007?

The most likely foursome behind Kazmir doesn’t offer much of an immediate impact, but both Tim Corcoran and James Shields are young, did well in their debuts as fulltime starters and made progress throughout the season. They have a long way to go before they have legit fantasy value, but they could help you out in a pinch. Jae Seo has shown he can be a fantasy force, but he has a lot to prove before he can return on the fantasy radar. Current members of the bullpen including Edwin Jackson and Jon Switzer were both highly-touted starters who are still young enough to make a successful return to the rotation, but Jackson especially has some serious work to do on his mechanics to meet the bar that was once set so high for him. Former first-round pick, 6′9” Jeff Neimann could factor into the mix with an impressive spring as could former Royals top prospect, lefty J.P. Howell. There are quite a few intriguing options, all with their flaws, and while none will likely come anywhere near #2 fantasy SP value, there are a few who, if everything breaks right, could hold their own as the Devil Rays’ #2 and have some moderate fantasy value.

Top 3 Fantasy Prospects Heading into 2007:

1. Delmon Young, OF – The most-ready, most-talented offensive prospect in any organization, Young’s potential is through the roof. He’s a five-tool player with high productivity, a good eye, and great athleticism. He’s even got some ML experience, which he fared well in, in 2006. He clobbered his way through the minors and will be given a starting job from Opening Day on. He’s got untapped power, good speed, and can hit for average. The only question is his mental makeup, but with his level of skill, not even an alleged lack of emotion or his occasional outburst could stop him from putting up big numbers as early as this season.

2. Jeff Niemann – He’s a monster pitcher, with a blazing fastball and a good mix of pitches. He can pitch on both sides of the plate, has unlimited potential and has shown the makeup of a future ace. He still has some work to do and hasn’t logged quite enough minor league innings to think he’ll get a spot in the rotation regardless of how well he performs this spring, but with the lack of depth at SP and the fact that the Devil Rays are already out of contention, a midseason call-up isn’t out of the question.

3. Evan Longoria, 3B – He tore through A ball in his pro debut last season, and while his power didn’t slow down upon reaching AA, he walked but once in 105 at bats. He was a top five pick for good reason as he offers good power and can hit to all directions, but he needs some refinement and to work on pitch selection. He came to camp with an added 15 pounds of muscle and looking very impressive. He’ll start in the minors, but again, without much to play for and not much depth at the position, he could be pushed rapidly, if he can draw some walks and would likely have an immediate fantasy impact.

New York Yankees Fantasy Preview

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: Jorge Posada (.270/19/75)
1B: Doug Mientkiewicz (.268/10/56)
2B: Robinson Cano (.307/19/91)
SS: Derek Jeter (.318/16/92)
3B: Alex Rodriguez (.282/42/120)
RF: Bobby Abreu (.290/26/115)
CF: Johnny Damon (.285/16/73)
LF: Hideki Matsui (.289/27/105)
DH: Jason Giambi (.261/32/98)

Top Offensive Producer: Alex Rodriguez, 3B

Say what you want about in his inability to hit in pressure situations, his ugly postseason numbers, and his lack of leadership, but his fantasy production over the last half-decade has been amongst the best in baseball. A-Rod posted his lowest power output in his career with only 62 extra base hits in 2006, but still led all 3B with 35 HRs and drove in a very respectable 121 RBIs. Not only is he a guaranteed source of power, he’s consistent, is a good source of walks and runs, and has even added some speed to repetoire in past seasons, as he posted 15+ steals for the 4th straight season. He will strike out more often than some would like, but his average still perennially hovers around .300 and he offers one of the best OPS in baseball. Like him or not, he has no weaknesses in fantasy baseball.

Top Offensive Dud: Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B

Mientkiewicz was signed and given the starting job at first base for one reason: his defense. Mientkiewicz did hit a respectable .283 in obscurity with the Royals last season, but it was only over the course of 91 games and showed no ability to hit on the road (.236/.321/.354). Prior to last season, he posted back-to-back sub-.240 seasons at the plate and while he has a good eye, he has too many holes in his swing. Combine an unstable batting average with relatively no power, speed, or ability to score runs and Mientkiewicz is not worth drafting regardless of the lineup or league he is in.

Most Undervalued Player: Hideki Matsui, LF

Matsui is also a good candidate to be the player most likely to rebound, but injury aside, he still looked like one of the best hitters in baseball last season when he was healthy. Matsui has been disrespected in fantasy drafts long before his injury and now he’s certain to see his recent wrist injury over-dramatized and again limit his draft status. Matsu has been back at 100% well before the offseason began, and prior to his injury, held the longest active games played streak. He’s durable, he’s still at his peak, he possesses 25+ HR/40+ double capabilities, and owns a .297 career batting average. Even more impressive, he’s posted a career .393 OBP and has cut back on his strikeouts since arriving in the U.S., yet he’s still seen as a 3rd OF on draft day.

Most Overvalued Player: Jason Giambi

Perhaps the only superfluous commodity in fantasy baseball this season is the ability to hit HRs. Unfortunately for Giambi, that happens to not only be his most valuable commodity, but perhaps his only commodity. He still drove in 100+ RBI and drew 100+ BB last season, but with 100+ strikeouts and a .253 AVG (including .243 after the all-star break), and while Giambi’s power is quite an asset, it is replacable. Walks are hard to come by for hitters who solely possess power, but in most leagues, it is a stat that is vastly undervalued. Giambi is still worthy of starting, but he showed a power slump late in the season and was ultimately useless down the stretch.

Most Likely to Rebound: Bobby Abreu, RF

Not that he had an off-year by any means, but his 15 HRs were a disappointment. With a spike in HR upon coming to the Bronx, we should see that total rise in 2007 (a la Johnny Damon last season).

Most Likely to Regress: Jorge Posada, C

The Rest:

Derek Jeter put up arguably the best offensive season of his career and posted a fantasy-favorable line of .343/.417/.483. He was amongst the best in the AL in runs scored (118), stolen bases (34), and of course, hits (214). He may not hit a ton of HRs, but he still drives in runs without a problem and still offers goodpower numbers thanks to his ability to hit for doubles…….Robinson Cano had a monster second half and while his peripherals may regress, he has 20 HR potential and a batting eye capable of being a perennial .300 hitter; he could establish himself as the best the AL has to offer at the position this season…….Johnny Damon may have seen his AVG dip, but it came at the expense of a season one HR shy of 25/25. He has good all-around tools and should score a ton of runs atop of this lineup.

The Bench:

Melky Cabrera, OF…….worth a late round flier on potential of getting good number of at bats; solid all-around tools with good speed
Miguel Cairo, IF…………offers nice positional flexibility and clutch hitting, but .239 AVG and 0 HR indicates absolutely no value
Wil Nieves, C……………Relatively unknown quadruple-A’er who will get shot at backup, has good power potential
Andy Phillips, 1B……….Inexperienced with room to grow, but low ceiling and not much offensive value in general

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Mike Mussina (16/3.90)
2. Chien-Ming Wang (14/3.81)
3. Andy Pettitte (16/3.76)
4. Kei Igawa (12/4.10)
5. Carl Pavano (12/4.56)

Top Starting Pitcher: Mike Mussina, RHSP

Chien-Ming Wang may offer more upside, but Mussina, who has won 11+ games every season since 1992 offers the unquestioned durability and reliability fantasy owners desire. Mussina hit an apparent rough patch in ‘04-’05, but after lowering his ERA by nearly a full run and finally getting some run support when took the mound, 2006 revived a career that appeared destined for a sharp dropoff. Mussina, if given the run support, can still be a 15 game winner, and unlike Wang, offers 150+ K’s with a ridiculously low walk total. There are some caution signs that could indicate a gradual decline, but his track record shows that he’ll stick with it and win games either way.

Starting Pitching Dud: Carl Pavano, RHSP

It’s easy to single out Pavano in this rotation as a potential anchor and weak spot, but after another unfortunate incident regarding his health, his stock took another turn for the worst. He was never much more than a #5 fantasy starter to begin with, and after a great season during his contract-year, 2004 is looking more like a fluke everytime Pavano hits another roadblock. He should be healthy by the start of the season, but who knows howrusty he will be, how long his health will uphold, and whether or not he’ll ever be anything more than a waiver-wire pick-up again in his career. The risk is low as he won’t likely be drafted, but the potential rewards ar equally low as of right now.

Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Andy Pettitte, LHSP

Prior to his injury in 2004, Pettitte was considered a top 10 fantasy pitcher, and while he’s never regained his full value, he may offer more fantasy productivity than ever before. Pettitte returned and posted a Cy Young worthy season in 2005 with 17 wins and a 2.39 ERA and while his ERA rose almost two earned runs last season, he still posted 14 victories and caught fire in the second half, lowering his BAA by 50 points and posting a 2.80 ERA. He offers double-digit win totals each season and while he was never known for strikeouts, he has posted back-to-back 170+ K seasons and makes for a relatively cheap #3/#4 fantasy starter.

The Rest:

Chien-Ming Wang is a savvy young pitcher with good command and limits his mistakes, but is susceptible to poor outings that are made even worse due to his low strikeout totals. He has a great pickoff move that saves him some runs and has the potential to win 20 games in the future…….Kei Igawa is still an unknown after getting overshadowed by Dice-K, but from his career in Japan based on what we’ve seen, he seems fully capable of filling the #4 spot and taking advantage of the offense behind him and putting together a solid debut season.

Projected Bullpen:

Chris Britton
Brian Bruney
Kyle Farnsworth
Mike Myers
Scott Proctor
Jose Vizcaino

Top Middle Reliever: Jose Vizcaino

Middle relievers get very little recognition as it is, but Vizcaino may be the most underappreciated of all in fantasy baseball. Vizcaino has spent the last three seasons with three different teams in both leagues and yet has posted remarkably similar numbers at each stop. Vizcaino, on the surface, is but an average pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 over the last three seasons, but he has averaged about 1 K/IP during that span and has won at least 4 games each year since 2002. He showed he could handle pressure as a member of the 2005 Chicago White Sox World Series championship team, but his greatest asset is his timely appearances to rack up nearly 20 Holds a season. Scott Proctor has a much higher ceiling, but after Joe Torre lived out his reputation as a bullpen killer having Proctor throw 100+ IP last year, Vizcaino is a safer pick with a better track record.

Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: Mike Myers

Similarly to Jamie Walker of the Orioles, Myers posted a career-year in terms of peripherals, but he still offered no fantasy value because of his LOOGY role that usually limits him to one batter per appearance. Myers only threw 30.2 IP at season’s end, which isn’t enough to register any fantasy value to begin with, but he didn’t even offer a high strikeout rate or above-average WHIP. Even worse for Myers, lefties still hit .257 off him last year and he could be pushed for his job in 2007.

The Rest:

Chris Britton………Massive-bodied hurler with unexpected command and finesse, low BAA, ERA, and WHIP, but not ovelry productive
Brian Bruney………High ceiling, low basement, risky, raw pitcher who has a great arm and K potential, but still needs refining
Kyle Farnsworth….Impressive strikeout totals and did well as interim closer, but major dip in peripherals struggling with pressure of NY
Scott Proctor……..Good young arm, who still could be converted into starter. Good durability and with it comes solid production

The Closer: Mariano Rivera

Rivera’s save total may have dipped for the third straight season, but he still posted a respectable 34 in the category, despite some nagging injuries. There are few superlatives that haven’t been used on Rivera, and for good reason, he’s the most reliable, consistent, and productive closer in baseball and has been for just over a decade. A modest helping of strikeouts varying anywhere from 0.75-1.05 per IP, combined with an average of 5 wins, 41 saves and an average of 3.4 HR allowed per season since 1996 are remarkable. Combined with 4 straight seasons of sub-2.00 ERA with a lifetime WHIP of 1.04 and BAA of .213 and a cut-fastball to die for, Rivera has never disappointed fantasy owners and shows no signs of slowing down.

Injuries: Carl Pavano, who has made a home on the DL over the past two season, took a batted ball off his left foot early in spring training and his status is still generally unclear, but he should be healthy come opening day, barring any additional setbacks.

Bobby Abreu strained his right oblique and may miss upto two weeks, but he is expected back by late March and should be ready to go come Opening Day.

Biggest Position Battle: First Base

Doug Mientkiewicz, as previousy discussed, is the tentative starter at 1B, but if he doesn’t start swinging the bat better, his defense will need to be flawless in order to maintain job security. Mientkiewicz will have to stave off most notably Andy Phillips, who offers solid, but not as good defense but with a marginally better bat. Also in the mix are 28-year old Josh Phelps, who possesses solid raw power but is susceptible to excessively long slumps, as well as 22-year old Cuban prospect Juan Miranda. Jason Giambi could be forced to take the field if all else fails, but knowing the Yankees an out-of-house candidate could already be lurking in the form of Todd Helton or someone similar.

Biggest Fantasy Question:With numerous key players well into their thirties, can the Yankees’ stars stave off injury and remain productive all season long? Last year, one of the primary downfalls of the Yankees, besides their lack of continuity, pitching, and depth, was their penchant for injury. Hideki Matsui, Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, Robinson Cano, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, and Mariano Rivera amongst others all spent time on the disabled list and limited both the overall value of the offense and the team’s potential. With some of the aforementioned injury-prone players gone, but with the team yet a year older, injuries will inevitably strike at some point in 2007. Of course, injuries are an issue every team deals with, but it will be significantly on the forefront with one of the oldest teams in baseball. Carl Pavano and Bobby Abreu have already faced setbacks this spring training, but Hideki Matsui and Jason Giambi are both back at full strength and everything appears to be quiet on the injury front so far. Unlike last season, though, when almost the entire team struggled with fantasy productivity due to key injuries, the Yankees have improved their depth and revitalized their farm system, so that while injuries may still strike, the effect on those who stay healthy should be significantly less.

Top 3 Fantasy Prospects Heading into 2007:

1. Philip Hughes, SP – The Yankees’ future ace waiting-in-the-wings, not only possesses a live arm, great size, and a good repetoire, he could find himself in the mix for a major league roster spot, depending on the health of the back of the rotation. He is still extremely young and needs some mentoring, but he has enough raw talent to make an immediate impact if he gets called up and could be the most sought after Yankees fantasy prospect in recent memory.

2. Humberto Sanchez, SP – The key piece of the puzzle to the Gary Sheffield deal, Sanchez, like Hughes, is extremely talented, very young and still raw. He isn’t major league ready at this point, but he has a good comination of finesse and power and should move up the prospect depth chart rapidly in a relatively weak system. He’s done well at every stop in the minors and has the potential to rack up strikeouts at the major league level.

3. Tyler Clippard, SP – Possibly the most major-league ready of the Yankees’ premier starting pitching prospects, Clippard has posted a 3.32 ERA in A-ball in ‘05 and 3.35 ERA in AA last season. He’s tall and lean with the expectancy that he’ll gain muscle, add some velocity to fastball, refine his skills and develop into a major-league ready pitcher by season’s end. He’s won 22 games over the last 2 seasons and has averaged more than 1 K/IP, so he could be worth watching should he get off to a hot start in AAA this season.

Boston Red Sox Fantasy Preview

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: Jason Varitek (.262/14/68)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (.286/16/83)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (.265/9/60)
SS: Julio Lugo (.281/8/53)
3B: Mike Lowell (.277/25/88)
RF: J.D. Drew (.287/21/93)
CF: Coco Crisp (.283/14/57)
LF: Manny Ramirez (.297/37/110)
DH: David Ortiz (.296/46/135)

Top Offensive Producer: David Ortiz, DH

I think it’s suffice to say that Big Papi has finally surpassed Manny as not only the most feared hitter on the team, but the most productive and most reliable. Manny is still Manny, but Ortiz’s raw power, ability to draw walks and hit for average, and his uncanny ability to deliver in clutch situations, may make him the most feared hitter in the entire AL. Over the past three seasons, Ortiz has offered near-perfect health, combined with an average of 47 HRs, 141 RBIs, and .600+ SLG, not to mention a BB total that has increased four straight seasons. Obviously a man of his size won’t offer any SB, but he is a generous contributor to every other major category and is especially favorable in leagues that offer OBP/SLG/OPS.

Top Offensive Dud: Julio Lugo, SS

It’s not so much that Lugo is an offensive dud as much as he happens to possess the least upside in one of the best lineups in baseball. Nevertheless, after Lugo played over his head during the first half of the season with the Devil Rays, he earned a trade to the Dodgers, where he proceeded to royally tank. In the past, drafting or signing Lugo meant one thing – you needed a punch in the arm in the stolen base category, so when Lugo deviated from what we expected and was hitting HRs at a much higher rate, it peaked our interest. Unfortunately, Lugo’s adjustments earned him a .219 AVG and 0 HRs in 146 at bats in the NL. If Lugo returns to form, he can give you a decent AVG with a good number of steals, but if he tries to turn himself into a power hitter, he could end up with numbers similar to his predecessor Alex Gonzalez (which would be a significant downgrade).

Most Undervalued Offensive Player: Mike Lowell, 3B

Lowell’s 2005 campaign wasn’t  just bad, it was UPN sitcom bad, but after last year’s return to respectability (.284/20/80), his draft value should continue to increase. 2005 was bad enough to permanently scar some Lowell believers, but a change of scenery and an upgraded power output should convince most that Lowell is back. No one quite knows just why Lowell’s 2005 season was that bad, as his peripherals didn’t significantly fall off, but we all know what Lowell is capable of when he’s atop of his game. Lowell is still only 33 and capable of prolonging his peak years for another couple of seasons. So while some will never touch him again, their loss could be your gain, as Lowell should offer 20-25 HR potential with a solid AVG, despite slipping into the latter stages of most drafts.

Most Overvalued Offensive Player: J.D. Drew, RF

Remember a few years ago when Adrian Beltre put up a career year for the Dodgers and came over to the AL? That didn’t work out so well. While Drew is a better hitter than Beltre and should significantly outproduce Beltre’s AL debut, Drew has been overhyped this offseason, thanks in part to his new $70 million deal. Drew, when healthy, is not only an above-average contact hitter, but offers a solid power output and can even steal a few bases. Unfortunately for Drew, putting all these skills together combined with good health has often been enigmatic. Drew is coming off a very impressive ‘06 campaign that saw 100 RBIs and an impressive .283/.398/.498 line, but let’s not forget that in eight full seasons, Drew has topped 20 HRs but three times and 75 RBIs but once. He offers good peripherals and a good source of all-around production when healthy, but his health is often a  very big if. Power hitting outfielders aren’t exactly a dime-a-dozen, but there are outfielders with much better track records that can give you similar power in later rounds.

Most Likely to Rebound: Jason Varitek, C

Most Likely to Regress: N/A

The Rest:

Manny Ramirez has arguably been the most consistently productive hitter of the last decade and while he posted a career low 79 runs scored in ‘06, his power numbers are still impressive and he added a career high 100 walks. There are off-the-field issues every season, but they’ve never slowed him down or hindered his value…..Coco Crisp showed 20/20 potential upon coming to Boston last season, but battled injuries and posted an uninspiring .264 batting average. Back at full health, he’s a nice 4th fantasy OF, who offers a little of everything…..The job at first is Kevin Youkilis’ to lose, and while the Red Sox may seek more experienced, glamorous options, Youkilis carries a solid bat and may have one of the best batting eyes in baseball. He’s an OBP machine…..One of the most scrutinized rookies this season will be tentative 2B starter Dustin Pedroia, who was eaten alive by veteran pitchers during his short stint last season. He’s hit well at all minor league stops and made some siginificant adjustments toward season’s end, so he could be a nice sleeper pick in deeper leagues.

The Bench:

Alex Cora, INF…………..A younger version of Royce Clayton, good glove, but no bat and little speed, and absolutely no fantasy value
Eric Hinske, 1B/3B…….Typical utility player with moderate power and a .260-.270 AVG, offers some flexibility but not worth drafting
Doug Mirabelli, C……..Moderate power, but not enough at-bats, and hitting .207 over last two years
Wily Mo Pena, OF……Spike in AVG was impressive and nice addition to raw power, but way too many K’s

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA – predictions based loosely on good health and spending majority of season in rotation – it is more of a projection of numbers expected should the pitcher stay healthy and keep rotation spot all season than attempt to predict for injuries, demotions, etc.):

1. Curt Schilling (16/3.63)
2. Josh Beckett (14/4.54)
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka (15/3.75)
4. Jonathan Papelbon (14/3.90)
5. Tim Wakefield (9/4.71)

Top Starting Pitcher: Curt Schilling, RHSP

No one knows what to fully expect from Matsuzaka or Papelbon in the rotation and while Beckett should bounce back, until he shows he can reduce the number of HRs he gives up, Schilling is the safest bet to succeed in this rotation. Schilling may be 40 years old, but he’s a free agent at the end of the year, who’s already indicated he’s looking for one more big payday, and what better way to earn it than putting up another double-digit win total and sub-4.00 ERA. Schilling’s arm could fall off at some point, as we’ve seen with recent injury, but after a healthy 2006 campaign and still averaging nearly a strikeout per inning, he offers everything you look for in a back-end #1/top-tier #2 fantasy starter.

Top Starting Dud: Tim Wakefield, RHSP

Wakefield could be a #3 starter in a good number of rotations, but at age 40 and coming back from injury, he could be looking at a rapid decline in production. He’s got moderate stuff, but relies mostly on a knuckleball that has kept him playing at a higher level than most pitchers of his age and skill set. A sharp dropoff in strikeouts indicate that he’s losing his touch and hitters are figuring out the ol’ knuckler and it led to an unimpressive win total of 7 with a 4.63 ERA. He still has enough in the tank to hold his own in 2007, but with guys like Matt Clement and Jon Lester stil on the roster, he could have a very short leash.

Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Jonathan Papelbon, RHSP

Papelbon wants to be a starter and Theo Epstein is savvy enough to find a capable closer so that the back-end of this rotation is the best in baseball. People forget that Papelbon owns a sub-3.00 ERA as a minor league starter and in 3 starts in 2005 for the Red Sox, he posted a 2.25 ERA. Just because he hasn’t started a game in a season and he’s penciled in as the #4 starter doesn’t mean he can’t return to his previous form, especially with relatively low mileage on his arm. He absolutely dominated as a closer and should translate favorably as a starter, while getting overshadowed by Dice-K.

The Others:

Josh Beckett was a favorite for the AL Cy Young going into 2006, but he had difficulty making adjustments to the superior hitting of the American League. He showed the best durability of his career, but finished with a deplorable 5.01. He maintained a respectable K/BB ratio, but gave up too many HRs….There isn’t much else to say about Daisuke Matsuzaka, he’s the most talented #3 starter in baseball and he should take advantage of his unfamiliarity, but there is a good deal of risk involved with making him your #1 fantasy starter.

Projected Bullpen:

Brendan Donnelly
Craig Hansen
Hideki Okajima
J.C. Romero
Julian Tavarez
Mike Timlin

Top Middle Reliever: Brendan Donnelly

Assuming Donnelly doesn’t win the battle for closer and gets to remain a set-up man, he offers good value in most leagues as he’s shown an ability to win games, rack up holds, and put up modest strikeout totals without often getting into too many jams. Donnelly has won 20 games over the last three seasons and while his ERA has gradually risen, he still owns a 2.87 lifetime ERA with a miniscule .219 BAA. In non-holds leagues, you’re likely better off with a shaky closer who can give you some saves, but Donnelly does his job well and in fantasy leagues where middle relievers get some respect, he has decent value.

Top Middle Reliever to Avoid: J.C. Romero

Many still reflect upon Romero’s stellar 2002 campaign and remember when he had closer potential, but now he’s best served as your team’s mop-up man. He always got by despite a high number of walks, but with regressing stuff and too many mistakes, hitters have gotten the best of him in recent past. He has posted a WHIP of 1.56 or higher in three of the last four seasons and after hitters posted a .298 (including a .382 pouncing by righties), he may be limited to a LOOGY role.

The Rest:

Craig Hansen……….Still viewed as the team’s closer, he could post some impressive numbers in middle relief, should he make the squad
Hideki Okajima……With the recent successes of Otsuka and Saito, this savvy Japanese vet could be productive if used in moderation
Julian Tavarez…….Can still eat up innings and rack up Holds, but low K totals and deteriorating peripherals are a bad sign
Mike Timlin……….Got rocked as a closer in pressure situations, but can still have good value if used in the 7th or 8th

The Closer: Joel Pineiro

Whether or not Pineiro will win the job come Opening Day is still very much in the air, but right now he seems to be the most likely in-house candidate, assuming Terry Francona avoids using a closer-by-committee approach (which didn’t work out so well for the Sox in ‘03). Pineiro seems to fit that Eric Gagne mold of nasty stuff, high velocity, but not enough consistency or control to make it through the lineup more than once. Pineiro has looked downright awful at times, but had a semi-revival in the pen. People may forget that he posted three straight sub-4.00 ERA seasons upon entering the league before he started walking an excessive number of batters and his BAA spiraled out of control. He still has a ton of upside and with a good pitching coach, he’s got the tools to make it as a reliever. Can he cut it as a closer? Time will tell, but on a scale of Ryan Dempster to Eric Gagne on the converted starter scale, after last season’s 1.65 WHIP, he’s looking more like Ryan Dempster.

Injuries: Jon Lester’s battle with lymphona seems to be all but over and the Red Sox expect to announce his first scheduled spring training appearance shortly, but with all five spots in the rotation tentatively locked up, the Sox could put the training wheels back on after a tumultous offseason and have him start in AAA

Matt Clement underwent shoulder surgery to have his rotator cuff and labrum repaired and has since been on a fast track to recovery but any timetable is still out of the question at this point. He has already said he hopes to pitch at some point this season, but like Lester, with a loaded rotation, the Red Sox will not likely rush him back.

Biggest Position Battle: Closer

A four-way battle for the spot of closer seems to be well under way this spring training as journeyman Brendan Donnelly, longtime setup men Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez, and converted starter Joel Pineiro are the top candidates. Timlin has already shown that he’s best kept as a set-up man and Donnelly could be labeled similarly after his recent success in middle relief, but converting only 4 of 14 save opportunities. Tavarez has deteriorated into a mediocre spot-starter/innings-eater, so Pineiro may have a leg up on the competition by default. Pineiro offers the most intrigue but the most instability, with a good spring training, though, and not much serious competition, the job could be his. Chad Cordero has already been rumored in trades, but should the Sox avoid a committee and stick with an in-house option, Pineiro could win this race by a hair.

Biggest fantasy question:Can the top of the order provide some stability and get on base for Manny and Big Papi?

Coco Crisp and Julio Lugo look to be penciled in atop of the order, with the leadoff role still up for grabs. Both Crisp and Lugo showed serious signs of struggle late in the season and both will need a serious rebound to spark the top of this order. Manny and Big Papi will get their 100 RBIs one way or another, but whether or not Lugo and Crisp can provide the sparkplug needed is up for debate. Lugo seems to be the favorite for the leadoff spot with his base stealing capabilities, but will need to return to his prior contact-first form, while Crisp will have to overcome an injury-plagued 2006 campaign. If either falters, Kevin Youkilis, with a OBP that hovers around .400, could push his way up the lineup. The top of the lineup doesn’t need much stability to score runs and have success, but they could have a minor effect on the seasons of Ortiz and Ramirez if they don’t meet their potential.

Top 3 Fantasy Prospects Heading into 2007:

1. Dustin Pedroia, 2B – He’s hit well at every level and with only Alex Cora as his current competition, he’ll get plenty of opportunities to hit at the big-league level. He doesn’t offer much power, but he could put Eckstein-lite numbers and minor league managers rated his strike-zone discipline the best in his league in 2004. He’s got a good track record and while he’ll need to make adjustments, he’s got the right amount of opportunities and readiness to have moderate fantasy success.

2. Craig Hansen, RP – Hansen has a live arm with good upside, but he’s still fairly raw after a rapid promotion since being drafted. Hansen has shown the poise and makeup needed to be a future closer in this league and with the Sox bullpen very much undecided, there could be a spot in mop-up duty with his name on it. He’s got good enough stuff to put up some impressive numbers in a low-pressure role and as he continues to hone his skills, he could gradually make a run at a wide-open closer spot.

3. George Kottaras, C – One of the best all-around catching prospects in baseball, Kottaras was looking to be on the fast track to success, but that came to a grinding halt after posting a .210 AVG in AAA last year. He still needs some work, but he’s still young and has a very high ceiling. He could make a run at the back-up catcher spot if Mirabelli continues his downfall.

Baltimore Orioles Fantasy Preview

Since we’ve still got over a month until the season kicks off, I have ample time to do a fairly detailed preview of each team. I’ll kick it off in the AL East, in alphabetical order (to remove any bias):

Projected Lineup (with early prediction on batting line):

C: Ramon Hernandez (.278/20/72)
1B: Aubrey Huff (.275/28/78)
2B: Brian Roberts (.290/11/48)
SS: Miguel Tejada (.309/30/97)
3B: Melvin Mora (.280/19/85)
RF: Nick Markakis (.287/26/80)
CF: Corey Patterson (.269/15/50)
LF: Jay Payton (.266/12/61)
DH: Jay Gibbons (.270/16/62)

Top Offensive Producer: Miguel Tejada, SS

Tejada posted his lowest HR total in seven years in 2006 with 24 round-trippers, but still topped 100 RBIs for the sixth time in seven seasons and posted career highs in AVG and OBP. The last two years for Tejada have been relatively lacking in the power department, but still good enough to find himself atop the rankings at his position and in the AL. One possibility for the dropoff could be due to a lack of consistent hitting around him, as Tejada accounts for as a big of a chunk of his team’s offensive output as almost anyone. The Orioles have added Aubrey Huff to give him some protection, but Tejada will still have a tough time breaking 100 RBIs again in 2007. Nevertheless, after a 212-hit campaign, he’s far and away the premier offensive star for the Orioles, despite a solid supporting cast.

Top Offensive Dud: Jay Gibbons, DH

Gibbons has shown flashes of solid offensive repetoire, but he has never been able to combine power hitting, a good batting eye, and health for a full season. Gibbons has a nice stroke and pretty good power, but his inability to draw enough free passes and his complete lack of speed make him a one-dimensional, oft-injured, mediocre corner infield option. He’s hit a respectable .277 three times in the last four seasons and has since twice topped 20 HRs, but with superior options in the lineup and without being secured of a starting role, he could find himself platooning toward the bottom of the lineup and putting up similar production to his .277/13/46 season of a year ago.

Most Undervalued Offensive Player: Nick Markakis, RF

Markakis was the most solid, consistent AL offensive rookie in 2006, but he was outshined by the likes of Jered Weaver, Francisco Liriano, Justin Verlander, and Jon Papelbon, with their dominating pitching performances for actual contenders. Markakis, playing in relative obscurity, posted impressive season-ending totals including a .292 AVG, .351 OBP, 16 HRs and 62 RBI. He even caught a major power stroke toward season end, hitting 12 of 16 HRs in the final two months of the season. He also hit 43 points higher in the second half and his post-all star OPS was .216 higher than his pre-all star OPS, not too bad considering most are drafting him as a 4th/5th OF at this point.

Most Overvalued Offensive Player: Aubrey Huff, 1B

Huff’s current draft status right now is much higher than a player who is averaging .265/21/74 over the past two seasons, partially because we all know he is capable of much better production and we all saw his top-notch numbers despite playing in a low-level offense for numerous years in Tampa Bay. He still has above-average power, but he has become victim to rough slumps, inconsistency, and a deteriorating AVG and run total. He’s still good for a bench spot on your fantasy squad, but with much better options at 1B, he shouldn’t more than a late-round acquistion at this point.

Most Likely to Rebound: Melvin Mora, 3B

Most Likely to Regress: Corey Patterson, CF

The Rest:

Ramon Hernandez has solidified himself as a top-12 catcher and took advantage of the hitter-friendly confines of Camden with a significant power spike. He’s now entering the prime of his career and should get the respect he deserves….After a blazing start to 2005, Brian Roberts has regressed, but has still shown an increased power spike to go with his base-stealing and run scoring abilities making him a pretty valuable commodity in a shallow 2B pool…..Jay Payton had good peripherals, but his lack of production makes him nothing more than an intriguing waiver wire pick-up should you be faced with a significant injury.

The Bench:

Paul Bako, C…All defense, no-hit catcher past his prime with no fantasy value
Brandon Fahey, IF….Decent batting eye, but offers just about no speed or power
Jeff Fiorentino, OF….Young with upside, but playing time and readiness in question
Kevin Millar, 1B….Still capable of a fantasy bench role, could fight for platoon with Gibbons

Projected Rotation (with early line on Wins/ERA):

1. Erik Bedard (16/3.89)
2. Adam Loewen (14/4.58)
3. Steve Trachsel (10/4.67)
4. Jaret Wright (11/4.23)
5. Daniel Cabrera (11/5.15)

Top Starting Pitcher: Erik Bedard, LHSP

Bedard has improved upon his innings pitched, strikeout totals, ERA, WHIP, and BAA for three consectutive seasons. He’s a finesse lefty with good command and knows how to mix up his pitches. He’s continued to improve his K/BB ratio and in turn he has stayed healthy and become more successful as a starter. With Kris Benson lost for the season, he’s the staff’s undisputed ace, and for good reason. He picked up 15 hard-earned victories a season ago and has famliarized himself with a hitter-friendly Camden Yards (3.03 Home ERA in 2006). He has all the tools to improve and put together a top-25 fantasy SP season.

Starting Pitching Dud: Daniel Cabrera, RHSP

Monster size, good velocity and a strong arm, but a complete devoid of control and consistency make Cabrera an absolute headcase for fantasy owners. He’s the prototypical Jekyll-and-Hyde pitcher, as he didn’t allow a single unearned run in 6 starts, but then found himself getting pounced on for 5+ ER in seven starts. What’s most baffling is that these starts usually are mixed in together and his numbers before and after the all-star break are pretty similar. He’s way too unpredictable and subject to way too many walks. He has raw talent and potential, but with 314 walks in the last two seasons and only 19 wins, the reward doesn’t quite meet the risks.

Most Undervalued Starting Pitcher: Adam Loewen, LHSP

A bulky lefty with a strong arm and much more command than Cabrera, Loewen has good upside and a good pedigree. He took some licks as a rookie last season, but held his own and allowed an impressively-low 8 HRs in 112. IP. He has room for improvement with his K/BB rate, but he posted solid all-around numbers for a 4th place team with a lack of offensive punch against some of the best the AL had to offer. He has #2 SP potential and could meet that with his gradual progress under Leo Mazzone.

The Others:

Jaret Wright’s failures in New York are well-publicized (and come of no surprise to most), but his 2006 campaign as a whole wasn’t overly terrible and if he can take advantage of a potentially high-octane offense as he did with the Yankees, he could win double-digit games back under Mazzone. Of course, that’s barring he stays healthy….Speaking of health, last-minute signing Steve Trachsel is a nice filler in the back of the rotation and offers a nice veteran presence, but with injuries and a gradually rising ERA, his fantasy value is at an all-time low this offseason.

Projected Bullpen:

Danys Baez
Kurt Birkins
John Parrish
Jamie Walker
Todd Williams
Scott Williamson

Top Middle Reliever: Danys Baez

Baez inherits the role of the 8th inning man for young Chris Ray and puts him in a very favorable position, with his big contract, should Ray stumble in his sophomore season as closer. Baez battled injuries, unfamiliar territory, a midseason trade, and a good chunk of the season in a Braves bullpen, in which everyone not named Bob Wickman seemingly failed. He still put together modest numbers, but he now returns to the AL East, where he was a former All-Star and 40-save closer. He may not fully rebound, but he can only go up, if he’s healthy.

Top Middle Relieve to Avoid: Jamie Walker

Not to take anything away from Jamie Walker, as he did a great job as the Tigers’ LOOGY last season, but he played over his head and even with a career year, he has no fantasy value. He throws less than an inning an appearance, which greatly limits his ability to garner wins, holds, and strikeouts and he doesn’t have what it takes to be a closer. He’s a 35-year old career minor leaguer who just got his big payday and has a very low ceiling.

The Rest:

Kurt Birkins….young with a good arm, won 5 games and had a .221 BAA, but it came with a 4.94 ERA
John Parrish…He didn’t pitch in the majors in 2006 and he didn’t exactly blow anyone away in ‘05
Todd Williams….servicable mop-up man who can eat innings, but whose peripherals have gradually deteriorated
Scott Williamson…struggled with constant change, but could return to form with some stability and health

The Closer: Chris Ray

Ray appears to be legit, after tallying over 100 career major-league innings and maintaining a 2.70 career ERA, .205 BAA, and 2:1 K:BB ratio. He held his own as closer and while he didn’t have much pressure on him mired in 4th place, he fared well enough on the road (2.34 ERA) and against the division’s best. He ate up the Devil Rays for 7 saves and 0.00 ERA and while it may indicate he’s not as good as advertised, it’s meaningless from a fantasy perspective, since he’ll get the same number of opportunities against them again in 2007. He may not peak much higher, but if this is as good as it gets, it’s not too bad and it’s good enough to be a perennial top 15-20 closer.

Injuries: Arguably the biggest injury news of the year, Kris Benson’s partially torn rotator cuff has put him on the shelf for the entire 2007 season, causing a significant shuffle in the rotation and propelling Bedard to ace-status.

Biggest Position Battle: Designated Hitter

Jay Gibbons will likely slug it out with Kevin Millar for the DH spot toward the back-end of the lineup. Both top out at about 20 HR potential going into the season and have moderate health risks. Neither offer much speed, but have smiliar, but decent skills sets, so a platoon is not only likely, but expected here.

Biggest Fantasy Question:

Can the newly-acquired savvy veteran pitchers revive their careers under Leo Mazzone and offer some legit fantasy value?

Jaret Wright had his most successful campaign under Mazzone’s tutelage, and Trachsel’s command and experience make him a good candidate to be a successful post-peak Mazzone project. Both are overcoming recent struggles in New York and could thrive without the added pressure of the tri-state media blitz. Similarly, in the bullpen, Danys Baez took a lot of heat last year after flopping in the NL, but Mazzone could turn him back into all-star shape. One interesting project will be former NL ROY Scott Williamson, who has shown flashes of success in recent years despite battling injury and swapping jerseys far too often.

Top 3 Fantasy Prospects Heading into 2007 (based on an undetermined formula using raw talent, readiness, potential playing time, and the ability to translate successfully at the big-league level – basically, the most likely to offer the most fantasy value this season):

1. Jeff Fiorentino, OF – He’s refined his skills after good experience in the minors and he’s ready for the fourth outfielder spot. With only oft-injured Corey Patterson and Jay Payton standing between him and one of two outfield spots, he should see some solid playing time and could put up Markakis-lite production.

2. Garrett Olson, SP – He’s held his own with a heavy workload and put up a solid 3.42 ERA in his first season in AA. He has translated favorably into the majors and since there’s always an opening on the Orioles’ staff, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get his chance to play at some point.

3. Hayden Penn - He’s slowly losing his luster after two very unproductive stints in the majors, but he’s still only 22 and has a good minor league track record and has shown the ability to bounce back from rough patches. It doesn’t hurt that he’s the unofficial 6th starter right now and will most certainly get another shot in the rotation at some point in 2006.