One way to help gauge a player’s fantasy value is to explore his potential and see where his extremes lie. Determining and comparing a player’s ceiling to his basement will help establish a reasonable scope of risks and rewards and give you an idea what to look forward to in the upcoming season. Since the best and worst case scenarios are more than likely absolute extremes, creating a middle ground by which to judge an average, expected performance is not a bad idea. Fantasy baseball isn’t an exact science and obviously either is this. What’s the Worst/Best that Could Happen? will take historically good and bad seasons which seem relevant to the player discussed as potential extremes and attempt to fabricate a reasonable middle ground (averaging out the two seasons) as a safe-side projection.
One Note: Each worst case, best case, and average scenario are based strictly on performance and do not take into account injury, because obviously, the worst case scenario for any player is missing the entire season on the DL – listing that for every player would be quite boring.
For this particular version, I’m going to take one player from each division, with an even split amongst hitters and pitchers.
National League West:
Will Taveras, Outfielder, Colorado Rockies
2006: 83 R, 1 HR, 30 RBI, 33 SB, .278
What’s the Worst that Could Happen?
Pat Listach, Milwaukee Brewers, 1993
50 R, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 18 SB, .244
What’s the Best that Could Happen?
Juan Pierre, Colorado Rockies, 2001
108 R, 2 HR, 55 RBI, 46 SB, .327
Calculated Middle Ground:
79 R, 3 HR, 43 RBI, 32 SB, .286
Pat Listach’s 1992 Rookie of the Year season is eerily similar to Willy Taveras’ 2004 Rookie of the Year campaign, in which they both debatedly beat out players who had much better immediate futures in Kenny Lofton and Ryan Howard, respectively. Taveras hit well enough in 2005 to stave off the fluke tag for the time being and appears to be for real, but as did Listach after his 54 SB rookie campaign. Juan Pierre, with a very similar, but superior, skill set, put up a much better average and SB totals than we could reasonably expect from Taveras, but who knows how great of an effect Coors can have. The middle ground nails Taveras’ career AVG and SB rates, though it exaggerates his power, but again, we have to factor in a move to Coors.
National League Central:
Jason Jennings, Starting Pitcher, Houston Astros
2006: 9-13, 212 IP, 142 K, 3.78 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
What’s the Worst that Could Happen?
Jamey Wright, Milwaukee Brewers/St. Louis Cardinals, 2002
7-13, 129.1 IP, 77 K, 5.30 ERA, 1.59 WHIP
What’s the Best that Could Happen?
Darryl Kile, St. Louis Cardinals, 2000
20-9, 232.1 IP, 192 K, 3.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Calculated Middle Ground:
14-11, 180 IP, 135 K, 4.60 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
When Jamey Wright left Coors, he was exposed as a below-average pitcher who could no longer use a poor park factor as an excuse. Jennings put up better numbers than Wright during his tenure at Coors, but with some arm problems, a low strikeout rate, and a middling ERA, he may end up topping out as an average pitcher at best (see middle ground projection). Darryl Kile was an established arm prior to the move to Coors, and always had average strikeout rates, but upon relocating to the NL Central put up some very good numbers and won 20 games – which is something that Jennings, a former ROY winner, has the potential to match on a good team.
National League East:
Wes Helms, Third Baseman, Philadelphia Phillies
2006: 30 R, 10 HR, 47 RBI, 0 SB, .329
What’s the Worst that Could Happen?
Abraham Nunez, Philadelphia Phillies, 2006
42 R, 2 HR, 32 RBI, 1 SB, .211
What’s the Best that Could Happen?
Morgan Ensberg, Houston Astros, 2003
69 R, 25 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB, .290
Calculated Middle Ground:
56 R, 14 HR, 46 RBI, 4 SB, .251
The Phillies took a gamble on Abraham Nunez last season as their starting third baseman after he parlayed a couple of months of good, well-over-his-head hitting into a nice size contract and a starting job. Needless to say he didn’t match his 2005 numbers, but also returned to his Quadruple-A’er status, hitting well below even the lowest expectations. Morgan Ensberg, who proved he was worthy of his debut stint as a starter, turned in a big year in 2003 in his first full season as a starter. You would think a best-case scenario would call for more than 60 RBIs, but Helms has only topped that number once. The best case scenario would be Helms extrapolating last year’s averages into a full-season workload, but this is a much reasonable best-case scenario based on Helms’ prior trials as a starter. The middle ground should call for more pop, but it took a tremendous hit due to Nunez’ natural lack of power and just how extraordinarily terrible he was in 2006, and the rest looks pretty good.
American League West:
J.J. Putz, Closer, Seattle Mariners
2006: 4-1, 36 SV, 104 K, 2.30 ERA, 0.92 WHIP
What’s the Worst that Could Happen?
Jorge Julio, Baltimore Orioles, 2003
0-7, 36 SV, 52 K, 4.38 ERA, 1.52 WHIP
What’s the Best that Could Happen?
Brad Lidge, Houston Astros, 2005
4-4, 42 SV, 103 K, 2.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Calculated Middle Ground:
2-5, 39 SV, 78 K, 3.34 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
Putz emerged from middle-of-the-pack, middle-relief obscurity and inherited a closer role that suited his profile perfectly and allowed to him showcase his nasty stuff, while striking out batters at a well-above-league-average, and racking up saves. Jorge Julio saved 25 games in his first season as closer after a few stints in middle relief and put tremendous peripherals, and while he increased his save totals, his peripherals came back down to earth, along with his strikeout rate and an ugly 0-7 record. Putz was way better than Julio in his first stint as closer, as good as Julio was, and the Lidge comparisons seem fair considering they are both big, strong powerarms with great strikeout rates. People may have forgotten how good Lidge was in his second year as closer in 2005, so Putz will have his work cut out for him. A full run spike, but still very good numbers as the middle ground suggests seems likely on a bad team with hitters who will now be more familiar the second time around.
American League Central:
Jermaine Dye, Outfielder, Chicago White Sox
2006: 103 R, 44 HR, 120 RBI, 7 SB, .315
What’s the Worst that Could Happen?
Moises Alou, Chicago Cubs, 2002
50 R, 15 HR, 61 RBI, 8 SB, .275
What’s the Best that Could Happen?
Juan Gonzalez, Texas Rangers, 1993
105 R, 46 HR, 118 RBI, 4 SB, .310
Calculated Middle Ground:
78 R, 31 HR, 90 RBI, 6 SB, .292
Moises Alou had put together a string of great seasons after an above-average numbers earlier in his career, but it all toppled down temporarily after he lost his power stroke and with it went his AVG and runs scored. Alou has since rebounded but 2002 marred his future value as it would do to Dye, who is entering his walk year. Gonzalez’ 1993 season was his break-out year and while his numbers in the late nineties may better reflect the situation, his numbers were either way too good or not good enough to represent a best-case scenario. Ideally, Dye should duplicate his 2006 season, but Gonzo’s ‘93 numbers would be slightly better. The middle ground is a nice representation of Dye’s potential if he’s healthy, and a very good foundation for fantasy owners to shoot for.
American League East:
Kei Igawa, Starting Pitcher, New York Yankees
2006: N/A
What’s the Worst that Could Happen?
Masato Yoshii, Colorado Rockies, 2000
6-15, 167.1 IP, 88 K, 5.86 ERA, 1.52 WHIP
What’s the Best that Could Happen?
Hideo Nomo, Los Angeles Dodgers, 1995
13-6, 191.1 IP, 236 K, 2.54 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
Calculated Middle Ground:
10-11, 179.1 IP, 162 K, 4.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
First off, the best-case/worst-case scenarios should are not simply because they are Asian pitchers but because their situations as baseball veterans in another league with little MLB experience match up well with Igawa’s 2006 situation. Yoshii did well in his debut in a spacious Shea, but when he entered Coors he was exposed as an inferior pitcher and didn’t live up the hype nor his Japan numbers. Igawa has a much better team, much better ability to miss bats, and is younger, so this worst-case scenario may be pushing the envelope, but it’s a reminder that the MLB is a lot less friendly to average-to-above-average arms. Nomo’s rookie season was something to be marveled, but matches up well with Igawa’s career in Japan, and one would think if Igawa could translate his Japan numbers in America, similar to Nomo, this would be an absolute best case scenario. The middle ground seems very fair, considering he’s a #4 starter, who was never dominant in Japan, but was a strikeout king. Give him a winning record, since he’s on the Yankees, and I don’t see much reason for anyone to complain.
Posted by James 