Saturday, 2/23/08: The Indians trade Cliff Lee and promote either Aaron Laffey or Jeremy Sowers to the 5th spot in the rotation (leaning toward Laffey). The best guess on Lee’s possible destination: Cincinnati. The Reds currently lack a lefty starter and can easily fit him into a weak rotation.

What actually happened: The Indians, rather than trade Lee, promoted him back into the rotation as their #5 starter. Laffey, along with fellow youngsters Jeremy Sowers and Adam Miller, currently form the backbone of an imposing AAA rotation. Lee’s rotation stay could be short if any of the three get hot and teams start seeking lefty starters.

Wednesday, 2/27/08: After hitting .335 in 173 at-bats last season, Cody Ross carries his hot streak over to spring training and wins the starting centerfield job over superprospect Cameron Maybin and last year’s spring training victor, Alejandro de Aza.

What actually happened: Ross did win the centerfield job, but according to reports, he’ll likely have to share time with utility hitter Alfredo Amezaga. Maybin will open the year in AAA and de Aza was placed on the 15-day DL. It’s Ross’s job to lose at this point, even if he loses some at-bats to Amegaza and possibly Luis Gonzalez, once Jeremy Hermida comes off the DL.

Saturday, 3/15/08: Despite a crowded outfield, newly re-acquired Met, hot-hitting Angel Pagan, makes the team and replaces Moises Alou as the starter in left field until Alou returns from injury. As a result, Endy Chavez opens the season as the fourth outfielder, Damion Easley and Marlon Anderson as pinch-hitters, and superprospect Fernando Martinez in AAA.

What actually happened: Pagan kept his hot streak going through the spring, and as I expected, it was enough to win him the starting left field job while Alou rehabs on the DL. Chavez, Easley, and Anderson could all still see time in left, but the majority of their at-bats will be off the bench. Martinez was optioned back to AA Binghamton.

Wednesday, 3/19/08: Despite Joe Crede’s back issues and disappointing 2007 season, he wins the Opening Day starting third base job with a healthy, solid spring training. As a result, Josh Fields is optioned to AAA so he can play everyday rather than waste away on the major-league bench. Pablo Ozuna, who will also lose his position battle (at second base) will be kept on board as a utility player and Crede’s primary back-up at 3B. The trade rumors swirling around Crede will persist and pick up steam if he gets off to hot start this year.

What actually happened: Crede won the third base job, Fields will open the year as the starting 3B in AAA, and as expected, Ozuna will be relied on as the primary back-up to Crede after losing the 2B competition to Juan Uribe.

Prediction Success: 75%

I was pretty much on the money on the Pagan and Crede predictions. Technically, I was right on Cody Ross winning the CF job, despite a potential platoon lurking in the future once Hermida comes off the DL. But I flat out missed on the assumption that Cliff Lee would be dealt and replaced by Aaron Laffey in the rotation – though I rule out the possibility of this eventually happening at some point this season.

The stories are equally as interesting in the National League as we’ll take a look at a 26-year old pitcher who broke out in 2004 and was considered one of the best young lefties in the game before imploding in back-to-back seasons and returning to dominance in 2007. We’ll also look at a former top pitching prospect who suffered an eternal meltdown, lost his control, nearly retired from baseball, and returned as a power-hitting outfielder, and finally, a 33-year old rookie.

National League East: Oliver Perez, SP, New York Mets

Boom: On talent alone, Perez could be an ace. He’s crafty, has a great mix of pitches, has very good lefty/righty splits, can be virtually unhittable when he’s on his game, and has the ability to strikeout 200+ hitters on a yearly basis. Since leaving the moribund Pirates, he has worked closely with Mets’ pitching coach Rick Peterson and rediscovered the mechanics and success that made him one of the game’s most promising young pitchers in 2004, when he went 12-10 with a 2.98 ERA and striking out 239 batters. Last season, after a three-year hiatus, he returned to fantasy stud status, going 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA and striking out 174 in 177.0 IP. He should continue to thrive in a pitcher’s park, under Peterson’s tutelage, with the same great offense behind him, and minimal pressure as the #3 starter. Perez struggled a bit down the stretch last year (as the entire team collapsed), but despite whispers of him being a headcase, he was generally solid all year long, against righties and lefties, and at home and on the road. Assuming he continues his maturation in this friendly environment, he could be a very cheap and effective #3 fantasy starter while average more than 1 K/IP. He’s still only 26 and even when he struggles he’s a productive lefty, always averaging around one strikeout per inning.

Bust: 2007 was Perez’s best season since 2002. Perez followed up his 2002 campaign by going 7-5 with a 5.85 ERA in 2003, despite being under the same circumstances. He’s shown goog consistency within a given year, but usually he’s consistently getting rocked. In three of the last five seasons, his ERA has been above 5.50 and he’s allowed at least 20 HRs in every full season as a starter. He’s been unable to keep his mechanics under control for extended periods of time and his delivery raises some concerns. He has the propensity to implode at any time and he still struggles with his control. His ERA rose nearly a full run in the second half of the season and his BAA jumped from .207 to .254 after his luck on balls put in play gradually declined. He has electric stuff and ace potential, but he’s still a very risky proposition and can’t be trusted as a top-of-the-line fantasy starter. Considering he’s never put together back-to-back above-average fantasy seasons, he may have more upside than Ervin Santana, but he’s equally as combustible.

Verdict: Despite the criticism the Pirates organization has faced over the last decade, they’ve always seemed to manage their young pitchers well, so it’s hard to blame them for Perez’s implosion. The fact is, Perez is ubertalented, but his talent and potential stardom in the past clearly outweighed his lack of experience. He’s made very good strides as a Met and is learning to harness his talented arm and velocity. He could just as easily improve upon last year’s peripherals and become a top-of-the-line fantasy starter as easily as he could implode again, and for that reason, despite the fact that I think he’s more likely to do the former, I wouldn’t risk drafting him any higher than as a #4 fantasy starter.

National League Central: Rick Ankiel, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

Boom: Like Josh Hamilton (referenced in the AL edition of Boom or Bust), Ankiel is a former top prospect, who had been through a lot on and off the field, before getting a good chunk of major league at-bats last season and emerging as one of the game’s top up-and-coming power hitters. Ankiel, simply put, is a talented athlete and ballplayer. He was an electrifying pitching prospect in his early years as a Cardinal before he lost his control, but revived his career in the outfield. He’s got plenty of tools, great resilience, the trust of the organization, and unmitigated home run power. He showed his tremendous upside upon making his debut as a full-time hitter last year, hitting .358-9-29 in his first 22 games in 2007. He cooled off a bit, but he still finished with a more than respectable .285-11-39 line in one-fourth of a season as a rookie hitter. He hit 32 home runs in AAA Memphis before the call-up last year and averaged a HR every 13.5 at-bats in the minors. He’s secured a spot in the starting lineup for the Cardinals this year and should get some much-needed protection from Albert Pujols. He’s an instant 30-HR threat and could display solid a solid AVG/OBP/SLG line to boot.

Bust: Ankiel has never been a dominant hitter in all facets of the game outside of his white-hot 22 game stint in the majors last year. Even before the call-up, he hit 32 HRs in AAA, but only hit .267, only scored 62 runs, and had a miserable 90 strikeouts to 25 walks in 102 games. Once big league pitchers caught up to him after his torrid start, he hit .220-2-10 in his final 25 games on the season. He has shown no ability to steal bases or score a respectable amount of runs and looked awful on the road, hitting .244-2-6 in 22 games. He was also equally unimpressive against righties, hitting .246-7-23 in 126 at-bats. Despite his power, he’s always been a poor doubles hitter (only 15 to his 32 HRs at AAA last year), and despite displaying annual double-digit HR power, he’s only topped 11 HRs at any stop once in his career. He hasn’t had many opportunities as a full-time hitter, but he also doesn’t have any kind of track record outside of an impressive 2007. He’s a lifetime .265 hitter in the minors and with the holes in his swing, his struggles against righties, his swing-for-the-fences mentality, and his inexperience as a hitter, that’s probably what he’ll hit around this year. He could give you an impressive HR total, but even RBIs could be questionable with his skills and in that lineup. He could be even more one-dimensional than the aforementioned Josh Hamilton, if he doesn’t rebound from a slow finish to 2007. Don’t forget he was implicated in the steroid scandal last season, too.

Verdict: Due to Ankiel’s elusive background, he’s a very hard hitter to project. The best bet is, though, he’s going to crush homers on occasion, ride a few hot streaks, and finish with all-around pedestrian production outside of the power department. Considering that he really came crashing down to earth during his second time around the National League and the fact that the closest he’s ever been to a dominant hitter was one power-laden season at AAA, and it makes him a pretty big risk. He doesn’t have the all-around upside of Hamilton, but might have more power and has less of a chance of losing his job. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t be willing to draft him as anything more than a bench player right now.

National League West: Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Boom: Kuroda may already be 33, but like many other pitchers from Japan, he’s aged well and is still performing at a peak level. He has a fastball in the mid-90′s, and plus-secondary pitches in a forkball, sinker, and slider. He’s a crafty pitcher with good control and good mound presence and has the make-up and experience to carry over his success to the states. He’ll get to ease his way into the majors as the 4th starter with a solid offense behind him in a pitcher’s park in a pitcher’s division. He keeps the ball down and maintains an impressive HRA rate. He threw 74 complete games in Japan and has 200+ IP endurance. He won double-digit games in six of his last seasons in Japan, including going 13-6 with a 1.85 ERA in 2006 and 12-8 with a 3.56 ERA in 2007. His strikeout total won’t be great, but it won’t be a liability either. His upside isn’t tremenouds, but he looked good this spring and should more than hold his own as a back-end starter on a highly competitive team. He appears to be the most polished, major-league ready starter from Japan since Hideo Nomo. He doesn’t have Dice-K’s upside, but he should make a smoother transition.

Bust: For every Hideo Nomo and Daisuke Matzusaka, there’s a Kei Igawa and Kazuhisa Ishii. History has shown us, that for the most part, Japanese starting pitchers’ numbers should be taken with a grain of salt and their peripherals inflated if you plan on extrapolating their numbers. Outside of a dominant 2006 season, Kuroda was a good, but not great pitcher in Japan. He underwent elbow surgery last year, which is why he stayed in Japan the extra season, despite a phenomenal 2006. He doesn’t have great upside and with 1,700 IP already on his arm at age 33, his best bet may be as a solid, unglamorous back-end fantasy starter who can utilize his surroundings with a low ERA, good win total, and pedestrian peripherals. If he was a lifetime 3.69 ERA pitcher with a mediocre strikeout rate in Japan, then even if he doesn’t drop off (which usually happens to Japanese starters), he’s still only a solid back-end fantasy filler. He’s polished, but with limited upside and the combustibility of Japanese starting pitchers, the risks outweigh the rewards.

Verdict: Kuroda won’t be the next Japanese phenom, but pitching in Dodger stadium in the back-end of the rotation and being a crafty pitcher who limits his mistakes and gets out of jams, he should instantly be a solid fantasy starter. He’s not going to wow with strikeout totals, but he could give Chien-Ming Wang-esque production with a strong lineup behind him and being in a winning environment. He might not post a huge win total, but anything short of 12-14 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA should be considered a disappointment especially with only a modest strikeout rate. The arm injury was minor and he’s been consistently productive in Japan. He won’t be great, but with a low ADP, I’d be more than willing to trust him as a #5 fantasy starter.

So, if you feel you’ve put together a solid team this year, but feel you’re still lacking that one piece to put you over the edge, you might want to take a gamble on one of these six high-risk, high-reward players, who could end up paying huge dividends. First, the American League “boom-or-bust” picks for 2008:

American League East: B.J. Upton, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Boom: Upton was the #2 overall pick in the 2002 draft and was considered the top-hitting prospect for much of the early part of his career. He plowed through lower levels of the minors exuding 20-20 potential, despite still being underaged and very raw. He hit a snag in AAA and struggled early on the majors, but it was because he was still so raw. Last season, as he began to refine his skills, he made an instant impact, hitting .300 with 24 HRs, 82 RBIs, and stealing 22 bases. He’ll move to centerfield, where he’ll no longer have to wory about his defense jeopardizing playing time or focus on offense, and he’ll be in the heart of a very productive lineup. He has 30 HR potential, but his speed may be his best asset (as seen by perennial 40+ SB totals in the minors). He’s still only 23 years old and his five-tool talents could have him on the precipice of a monster season, with his potential.

Bust: Upton has plenty of potential, as despite refining his skills last year, he’s still very raw. He’ll be forced to learn a new position in centerfield this year and it could take away from his focus at the plate. He has an awful batting eye and was lucky to hit .300 last year, despite 154 strikeouts to only 65 walks. His batting dropped 35 points from the first half (.320) to the second half (.285) last year, and he hit  .270 and .244 in August and September, respectively.  He’s the type of hitter who can give you power and speed, but his average will eventually regress. He’s shown the ability to struggle long-term against quality pitching and if he doesn’t improve his batting eye, he might just wind up being a flashier version of Mike Cameron this year.

Verdict: Upton is the real deal. Is he a .300 hitter? Probably not, but he should be able to maintain an average in the .270-.280 range. He’s very risky, especially considering he’s gone in the second round of some drafts, but if you can land him at 2B, you should be pretty set. He might not reach 30 HRs this year, but another 20-20 season should be in store for fantasy owners.

American League Central: Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins

Boom: As shown when healthy, Liriano has the talent to be the second-most productive lefty starter in baseball behind Johan Santana. Once he got out of the Giants’ organization, he blossomed under the tutelage of a knowledgeable Twins’ minor league staff and has put together an impressive track record between high-minors and the majors. In 2006, he went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA and struck out 144 in 121.0 IP. He would’ve been the hands-down Rookie of the Year, if it weren’t for an injury that cut his season short and kept him out for all of last season. He’s back at full-strength this year, but the Twins want him to make a few minor-league rehab starts at Fort Myers (A-ball) before calling him back up. Opening the year in the minors will scare away a good amount of owners, so you can benefit by buying low, because if he’s healthy and back in the majors by May (as expected), he’ll pick up where he left off in 2006, baffling hitters with electric stuff, winning double-digit games, and posting a strikeout rate well above 1 K/IP. Considering how carefully he was monitored and not rushed back, despite the elbow injury, there appears to be a very low chance of re-occurrence.

Bust: Prior to breaking out in AAA Rochester for the Twins in 2005, Liriano had a career record of 20-26 with a lifetime 3.80 ERA in the minors and perennially battled arm injuries. He put together two great seasons in 2005 and 2006, but it’s hard to expect him to just “pick up where he left off” this year after not pitching in a major league game in over a year-and-a-half and undergoing Tommy John surgery. He’s starting in the minors because his velocity and arm strength aren’t where they’re supposed to be yet and as we’ve seen with Tommy John survivors, he may not fully recover for months, if ever at all. With more of a track record, maybe he’d be worth the risk, but he was a gamble to duplicate his 2006 success even before the injury. Now, after being out of action for two full years and unable to start the year in the majors, he’s riskier than ever.

Verdict: Despite arm injury concerns and a slow minor-league start, I would still happily invest in Liriano as a frontline fantasy starter in 2008. Maybe he’ll get off to a slow start, but he’s expected to work his way through the minors fairly quickly, and he should be up by May. He’s a nice guy to target since he’ll probably have “N/A” next to his name, which will inevitably lower his value and he could be a second-half stud this year. Don’t expect him to duplicate 2006 peripherals, but expect him to easily assume the role of ace for the Twins once he’s back.

American League West: Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers

Boom: Josh Hamilton has one of the most exclusive skill sets in baseball. He’s got excellent size at 6’4” 220-lb., tremendous power, a good glove, and good enough speed to lead off. Hamilton has always had the talent, he just never had the focus. Now, that he’s focused and assured of a starting job, he’s ready to amount to the potential he had as the #1 overall pick in 1999. He may have lost some seasons due to off-the-field problems, but he was able to pick up right where he left off and is ready to blossom as a 26-year old power stud in his peak. Even last year as a part-time platoon player, he hit .292-19-47, posted a solid 65-33 strikeout-to-walk rate, showed good poise on the basepaths, played everywhere he was asked to in the outfield, and could hit anywhere in the lineup. Now, he’ll get to be a full-time starter in CF for the Rangers, entrenched in a powerful lineup in a hitter’s division in a hitter’s ballpark – an all-around more conducive atmosphere for an up-and-coming hitter like himself. He’s still making adjustments, but showed that when he heats up, no one can slow down his monster power. He had a red-hot spring and he should have no problems carrying over his torrid pace into the regular season.

Bust: It appears as if Hamilton has finally put it all together from a mental standpoint, but do you really feel comfortable investing a starting role on a guy who missed practically four full seasons of baseball? Even if he’s no longer an off-the-field risk, he still has numerous things to work out on the field. For starters, he can’t hit lefties and is a risk to end up back in a platoon because of it. He was shielded from lefties for the most part by the Reds last year, but when he faced them, he was exposed – hitting .222 with 1 HR in 72 at-bats. He also went down with injury last year and only appeared in 26 games after the All-star break. He’s also unlikely to continue to hit .292 with his skill set, 2/1 K/BB rate, emphasis on power, having to play against lefties, and having to adjust to a whole new set of pitchers. The power is there and so is the potential to be a fantasy starter, but there’s still so many red flags. He’s a feel-good story, but that won’t earn you any points in fantasy leagues. Also, despite his ability to lead off, he only stole 3 bases last season and it would be shocking if he stole more than 10 this season. He could wind up being a pure power hitter who doesn’t offer much else, and in my book, an Adam Dunn-lite hitter isn’t worth starting.

Verdict: I’m not as sold on Hamilton as I am Upton and Liriano, but I’m not about to doubt his abilities. I personally would only draft him as a fourth fantasy outfielder to open the season. His lefty/righty splits definitely raise concerns about a potential platoon, especially considering he’s never been a full-time starter and Marlon Byrd, a right-handed bat, who hit .307-10-70 and .327 against lefties last year, will be on the bench pushing for playing time. Hamilton could be an instant 30-HR guy, but questions about his average dipping, the fact that he only scored 52 runs for the Reds last year, and a low RBI to HR rate, and he could end up being a one-dimensional power hitter in fantasy baseball this year. My guess is he extrapolates on his power numbers last year but the average dips into the .260-.280 range.

Please note that in an effort to avoid repetition, we opted not to consider our Rookie of the Year picks for each league in our divisional top prospect picks. Also, the utility/DH position in each divisional fantasy starting lineup is essentially the best hitter who’s not the best at his position – it is not reserved exclusively for DHs or players without any positional eligibility.

Without further adieu, our 2008 regular season, playoff, and fantasy baseball picks and predictions:

The View: There are quite a few developments here that could have fantasy relevance. First, John Patterson’s release apparently did not have anything to do with his recent arm injuries. He was getting shelled this spring and his fastball was peaking in the mid-80′s. It’s a bit conspicuous, considering Patterson has the control and stuff to get by without a blazing fastball and the state of the rotation is pretty shaky at this point without him. Manager Manny Acta said the organization didn’t think he was worth the risk again and GM Jim Bowden said he’s welcome to come back as a minor leaguer. Considering there seems to be something at play behind the scenes here and the decision wasn’t entirely performance-based, it’s very possible Patterson could get scooped up rather quickly and inserted into another team’s rotation. Possible suitors could include: Los Angeles Angels (who will be without Lackey and Escobar for at least a month), Florida (where he could feasibly be their ace tomorrow), Texas (who has some serious back-of-the-rotation questions), and Toronto (who lost Casey Janssen for the season after planning on making him their #4 starter and have all but given up on Gustavo Chacin). He’ll probably never be as good as his 2005 season and he’s not a great strikeout pitcher, but on a competitive team, he could be a solid back-end fantasy starter, despite injury risks.

Shawn Hill’s injury doesn’t appear to be serious and it seems to be more of a precautionary measure. Nevertheless, he was hurt on and off last season and already has a bit of a history with injury concerns despite his young age. He’s expected be to be activated on April 13 (only missing two starts), but that’s not written in ink. The staff definitely needs him back, but with this expected to be another lost season, don’t expect him to be rushed, consider this injury has already lingered for months. When healthy, he’s a good back-end fantasy starter, but right now, he’s best left on the waiver wire unless you have the room to stash him on the DL.

Odalis Perez was expected to get his major-league contract purchased from the day he signed with the Nationals, considering the rotation prospects, but it’s still too soon to consider him a viable fantasy starter. He had a good showing this spring and he’ll be at the top of this rotation, but he’s always had the look and tools of a front line starter, he just hasn’t had the focus to turn his potential into results. We saw Dmitri Young clean up his act under similar circumstances and Perez could see the rebirth of his career under the well-respected Manny Acta, but like the rest of the rotation, his immediate value is still minimal. He’s coming off a 8-11 season with the Royals, where he posted a 5.57 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and an eyesore of a BAA at .318. He also posted his worst strikeout rate of his career with 64 in 137.1 innings. He never really looked better than mediocre at any point last season and his best month was May, where he went 0-2 with a 4.40 ERA and 14 K in 30 IP. Set the bar low right now, regardless of where he sits in the rotation.

As far as the rest of the rotation is concerned, Tim Redding is coming off the best half-season of his career, is unlikely to duplicate last year’s success, and will have a tenuous grip on his job as the veteran target with pitching prospects closer than they appear in his rear view mirror. Jason Bergmann had a strong showing last year and unlike the rest of the team, can be an above-average strikeout pitcher, but he has low endurance, and is best suited for the bullpen. Matt Chico is a lefty with a cannon for an arm and repeatedly hit high 90′s with his fastball. The problem is his control is awful and despite his velocity, isn’t a strikeout pitcher. He’s still very raw, but as he continues to hone his skills, he could be a useful fantasy piece a year or two down the road. Finally, John Lannan is another young lefty who the team has become pretty high on. He plowed through A+ ball (6-0, 2.13 ERA), AA ball (3-2, 3.25 ERA), and AAA ball (3-1, 1.66 ERA) before climbing the prospect ladder to the majors. He showed pretty good poise for a pitcher, who one year earlier was toiling in A ball, and went 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in 6 starts. He’s had control issues every step of the way despite his success and won’t be a pitcher who racks up strikeouts. Despite this, he’s got a god arm and has impressed scouts this spring. The problem is, even if he posts similar numbers to last year’s major outing, he’ll likely be the odd man out when Shawn Hill is ready to return.

With the rotation in a state of chaos, all the veteran free agent pitchers probably have their agents zeroing in on Washington, in hopes of not having to settle for a minor-league deal elsewhere. The first and most prominent is Jeff Weaver, whose brother, Jered, confirmed he is in talks with the Nationals to sign a contract. The Nationals haven’t officially confirmed their interest, but it does make sense. Weaver, like Perez, needs a career revival in a low-key environment or he’s in risk of losing his “major league starter” status. Other names that could be pursued include: Freddy Garcia (if and when he’s ready to make his return), Rodrigo Lopez (health also pending), and Eric Milton (who could fill a lefty void if Chico and Lannan aren’t ready for a full season in the rotation). Right now, other than Garcia, no one is really worth tracking in terms of fantasy value.

Sleeper: Yunel Escobar
There’s not much left for me to say about Escobar that I haven’t already said in about five other articles, but when you consider the environment he’ll be playing, his hitting talents, his low ADP, and the fact that he carries three infield position flexibility, he might be the most undervalued player going into the season. He hit .326-5-28-5, walked 27 times to only 44 strikeouts, and scored 54 runs in just over a half-season’s work. The Havana, Cuba native joined the Braves at age 22 and only played 223 minor league games before his call-up. His power is still developing and with his 6’2’’ 200 lb. frame, he could be a 15-20 HR hitter in due time. He’s already got a great betting eye, good speed, and game-changing abilities, and he’ll get every opportunity to flaunt them on a full-season basis this year as the starting shortstop atop of a productive lineup.

Deep Sleeper: Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens, who came over from Detroit with only 30.2 IP in his career above AA, is now the favorite for the 5^th rotation spot with a strong spring and Mike Hampton likely to open the season on the DL. Jurrjens allowed only one run in his first nine innings of work this spring and is building off a solid 2007 season in which he went 7-5 with a 3.20 ERA in 19 AA starts and held his own in his major-league debut as a 21-year old last season, going 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA in 7 starts. He’s got above-average command of his pitches and though he only struck out 13 in 30.2 major league innings last year, he was a near 1 K/IP strikeout pitcher in the minors. He doesn’t have tremendous upside, but he’s pretty developed for a 22-year old with limited high-minors experience and could have a quietly solid season with a chance to win a good number of games with average peripherals and an impressive home run allowed rate.

Bust: Tom Glavine
Glavine’s season-ending numbers look pretty good on paper: 13 wins, 4.45 ERA, 1.41 WHIP. Then, when you consider he only struck out 89 in 200.1 IP of work and had a BAA of .281 (the third-worst in his 21-year career) as a result of declining velocity, it’s hard to imagine him duplicating last year’s numbers without a good amount of luck. He returns to the Braves, who probably won’t get him the 5.21 runs per start the Mets got him last year or the .277 BABIP (as a result of very good defense), so he’ll probably have to pitch better than he did a year ago, which is asking a lot from a 42-year old. It’s also asking a lot from a pitcher who looked like he started to wear down in June before completely collapsing at the end of the season. Glavine’s ERA only jumped slightly in the second half of the season, but his BAA was 28 points higher and only struck out 36 in 84.0 IP and had a 6.10 ERA in September.

Florida Marlins
Surprise: Matt Lindstrom
Lindstrom spent all of last season as a set-up man and late-inning reliever for the Marlins without recording a save, and with Kevin Gregg set as the team’s closer, he’s not going to draw very much attention this offseason. The save opportunities will be limited regardless who is the closer in Florida, but Gregg, coming off a career year and as an established reliever, could have good trade value for the rebuilding Marlins. Gregg also has a relatively high bust factor with a very mediocre track record, a career 4.59 ERA in the minors, and benefiting from a .253 opposing batting average on balls put in play (well above league-average .290, indicating a high degree of luck last year). Lindstrom never pitched above AA before last year, when he made 71 appearances, boasting a 62/21 K/BB rate, a 3.09 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and allowing only 2 HRs in 67.0 IP and as he continued to acquiesce himself to the majors, only got better. In the second half, he had a 2.35 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 32 appearances. He’s an intimidating presence at 6’5’’ with a fastball in the upper nineties and surprisingly good control – he has all the tools needed to be a closer and with the Marlins in rebuilding mode, may get his chance to garner saves in 2008.

Sleeper: Jeremy Hermida
Easier said than done, the only thing that is preventing Hermida from achieving stardom is his (lack of) health. He was a headlining sleeper as a rookie in 2006, but his full-season debut was cut short after 99 games and he hit .251-5-28. He continued the trend last year, but lasted 123 games this time around and showed great offensive upside, hitting .296-18-63 on the year, and was white-hot down the stretch, posting a .340-10-36 line in the second half. He’s got great size, good power, an ability to draw walks, and is most likely to replace Miguel Cabrera as the team’s primary source of RBIs. He has legitimate 30 HR potential and has been a significantly better hitter outside of his pitcher-friendly home park. If he lasts 123 games as he did last year (or more), he should be an automatic fantasy starter. The only problem is he’s already being hampered by a hamstring injury, but all signs point to him being a go on Opening Day and building off last year’s momentum. He can currently be drafted as a bench player so the risk is pretty minimal right now.

Deep Sleeper: Andrew Miller
The Tigers’ first-round pick in 2006, Miller would’ve probably gone #1 overall if it weren’t for signability issues. At UNC, he was one of the most polished, accomplished college pitchers in recent history and carried his success over, dominating hitters at the low minor league levels. He powered his way through the Tigers’ system before making 13 starts in the majors last year and getting dealt to the Marlins this offseason, where he’ll likely take over as staff ace. Despite his limited professional experience, Miller is ready for the majors. He’s 6’6’’ with a fastball in the upper-to-mid 90’s, a slider with great movement, and good control. His 2007 numbers don’t look very impressive, but note that seven of his starts came on the road, and three of six home starts were against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets, three of the best lineups in baseball. As expected, he had a high HRA rate, but a polished lefty like he is, should develop quickly in a low-pressured, pitcher-friendly environment in Florida as he continues to make strides of improvement with only 19 career starts above A-ball.

Bust: Sergio Mitre
Mitre will invariably be on the draft boards of most teams in each league thanks good size, good stuff, being at a peak age of 27, and coming off a season with a 4.65 ERA and 2/1 K/BB rate. Before his 15-start hot streak before the All-Star break last year, his best stint was posting a 5.37 ERA in seven starts and fourteen mop-up jobs for the Cubs in 2005. After the All-Star break, his ERA rose nearly 5 full runs, posting a near 1/1 K/BB rate (25:22), and getting shellacked with a .348 opposing batting average. There’s nothing in Mitre’s resume to indicate another white-hot half-season and without one, he’s a mediocre pitcher with a high rate of implosion.

New York Mets
Surprise: Pedro Martinez
After missing nearly the entire season in 2007 and looking like his career may be in jeopardy, Pedro fought through injury, made his return in September and revived his career. In his five starts last year, he looked like the Pedro of old, pitching in high pressure situations and not faltering, going 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA while striking out 32 in 28.0 innings of work. His velocity was down and he was much more hittable than he was in his prime, but he was able to get out jams and display more craftiness than ever. He’s carried over his hot streak and good health to the spring, where’s he off to another good start. He’s hitting about 90 mph on his fastball (higher than last year), but he looks sharp enough where that’s all the velocity he’ll need to succeed. He may be 36, but he’s the type of pitcher who projects well into his early-40’s; he just needs to stay healthy. People forget that he’s only two seasons removed from being one of the best pitchers in fantasy baseball and he might able to return to similar form with little mileage on his arm over the past two years.

Sleeper: Ryan Church
Church isn’t your typical Met starter in that, other than he’s white, he’s a low-key producer who won’t steal headlines. He’s a well-rounded hitter entering a late peak at age 29 and has overcome injuries early on in his career. He’ll benefit with a better protection in a stronger lineup in a more conducive offensive atmosphere. Last year, he hit .272-15-70 with the Nats and outside of cavernous RFK stadium, hit .278-10-40 in 70 games, which is the split the Mets are hoping Church will extrapolate upon in 2008. He can be inconsistent from month-to-month, but this will be his first opportunity to secure a starting job on a good offense and outside of Washington. He has the capabilities to hit 20 HRs and post a respectable average in a much better situation in 2008.

Deep Sleeper: Angel Pagan
With Moises Alou opening the season on the DL and the Mets not ready to turn the job over to prospect Fernando Martinez, it creates a void in left field that will likely be filled by Pagan. He was originally drafted by the Mets in 1999 before making his debut with the Cubs and ultimately getting traded back to the Mets this offseason. He’s a 25-year old switch hitter, who excels in every facet of the game without overwhelming production. His power has improved as he’s reached the majors, and though he only has 8 career stolen bases in 148 minor-league games, he was held back often as a Cub and isn’t far removed from his 63 stolen base season in AA in 2004. As a back-up with the Cubs, he showed good versatility, handling all three outfield spots and being able to bat almost anywhere in the lineup. He got off to a white-hot start this spring, hitting .471 as March 11^th, and though he cooled down a bit, is hitting .333 in 60 at-bats and has been the most impressive and consistent Met hitter in spring training. He should open the season as the starting leftfielder, and if he holds his own, should be a productive asset off the bench when Alou finally returns.

Bust: Orlando Hernandez
El Duque turned around a dismal 2006 season with the Diamondbacks, where he was 2-4 with a 6.11 ERA, when he was dealt to New York and posted an ERA two runs lower with the Mets. Despite his career rebound, he was still a fragile pitcher, who despite good movement and an above-average strikeout rate, was error-prone with league-average peripherals. Then last season, he put up arguably the best half-season of his career at age 38 (?), despite giving up 10 HRs in 78.0 IP, an uninspiring K/BB rate, yet posted a 3.22 ERA while hitters only hit .210 against him. In the second half, his ERA rose a full run, he gave up the long ball at a much higher rate, but yet only gave up a .202 BAA. Further scrutiny of El Duque’s unexplained success revealed the lowest BABIP (batting average on balls put in play) of all pitchers with 100+ IP in 2007 with a .214 (21 points lower than the next lowest), indicating that he was arguably the luckiest pitcher in baseball by a good margin last year. He’ll still have a good offense and defense to work with, but at his age, with his league average peripherals, with average luck, he’s but an average pitcher, with a high risk of injury.

Philadelphia Phillies
Surprise: Brett Myers
Many are worried about whether Myers is still worthy of ace status after a disappointing 2007 season. It’s true Myers got off to a bad start in the rotation before getting hurt, but he only made three starts before his injury (not nearly enough work to project him struggling in the rotation the whole season if healthy). He came back and despite having no extensive relief experience in his career was named closer by manager Charlie Manuel. He rebuilt his arm strength and worked out the kinks in his mechanics despite learning a new role and posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the three months when he was the closer. He finished the year with 83 strikeouts in 68.2 IP and his lowest single-season BAA of his career (.234). Now, he’s back as a starter, spending the spring reestablishing his endurance, and has looked good enough to win the Opening Day start over phenom Cole Hamels. Prior to last season, as the staff ace in 2005 & 2006, Myers averaged 12.5 wins, 199 strikeouts, with a 3.81 ERA. Expect him to post similar production again back at full strength and as a full-time starter in 2008.

Sleeper: Jayson Werth
Werth looked like he was on the verge of reaching his potential after a solid 2004 with the Dodgers. He struggled in 2005, despite flashing good speed, and missed all of 2006 with injury. He came back with the Phillies last year and despite his lack of experience and success in the recent past, he showed enough talent to win a roster spot. As a back-up/injury fill-in/platooner, he hit .298-8-49 in only 255 at-bats, while getting on base at a .404 clip and tacking on seven steals. With his size (6’5’’, 210), strength, and versatile tool set, he could be a version of Corey Hart-lite in 2008 in a great lineup in a glorious hitter’s park. He’s only 28 and could be entering his peak. He’ll need to shed a potential platoon with Geoff Jenkins, but if he hits like he did to finish 2007 (.329-5-39-7 in the second half), he shouldn’t have a problem securing an everyday job.

Deep Sleeper: Greg Dobbs
Dobbs will open the season relegated to back-up and pinch-hitting duty, but like Werth, has an all-around good offensive skill set and can really mash against righties. He’s a good pinch hitter, can handle all the corner spots (1B, 3B, RF, LF), is a hard worker, can draw walks, and has the potential to grow and feasibly force a platoon at third base with Pedro Feliz. He’s the best lefty hitter on the bench and after .272-10-55 in mop-up work last year, has earned the respect of the staff and will continue to get extended playing time. If he forces the platoon, he could have solid value in NL-only leagues, and should injury strike, he could be on the precipice of an everyday job, where he would project roughly as a Kevin Youkilis-type producer, without the excessive walk rate.

Bust: Pedro Feliz
Example #1,678,392 of how power hitters are overvalued in fantasy baseball. Feliz still is drafted as a borderline starter in some formats simply because he has hit 20 HRs in each of the last four seasons. He did drive in 98 once over that span, but his next best RBI total was 84. He’s never scored more than 75 runs, has never stolen more than 5 bases, and has hit .250 or lower in four of his five full seasons of work. It’s possible that his all-around production struggled due to a poor lineup and a pitcher’s division, but it’s also possible that if he only hit 15 HRs a year, no one would care. The difference between 15 and 20 HRs at 3B won’t win you a championship. If he was a utility player with the Phillies (as he probably should be) and had multi-position eligibility, he’d probably make for a good fantasy bench player. Unfortunately, with only eligibility at 3B, there are much better options available.

Washington Nationals
Surprise: Lastings Milledge
Milledge earned a bad reputation for his off-the-field issues and questionable personality and work ethic as a Met, but has developed well in each of the last two seasons despite the distractions. He was dealt to the Nationals where he’ll get the opportunity to focus on one position, play everyday, and continue to grow as a cornerstone of the franchise. Despite bouncing from majors to minors, to right, center, and left field, and falling out of favor with the coaching staff, he went on to hit a solid .272-7-29 in 181 at-bats as a 22-year old. He’s bulked up and looks like he could flirt with 15-20 HRs coming off a solid showing last year. He’s not a fantasy starter yet, but he’s worth stashing on the bench in hopes he’ll quickly develop into a five-category producer playing everyday. If he gets to bat behind Ryan Zimmerman, it could work wonders for his stats and make him a starter-quality fantasy outfielder when it’s all said and done this year.

Sleeper: Nick Johnson
Johnson has earned one of the biggest injury red flags amongst all position players and while it’s somewhat deserved, it’s safe to say that his freak injury could’ve happened to anyone and would’ve likely ended their season, too. He missed all of 2007, but in the two years prior, played 278 games, and averaged a line of .290-19-76-6 despite playing in RFK and the team in rebuilding mode. He looked like he wouldn’t even get a sniff at the majors this year, and as a result, has zero draft value right now. Despite this, he’s looked good this spring, is expected to open the season on the roster, and there are whispers that he will at least force a platoon with Dmitri Young at 1B, while Young is shopped around

Deep Sleeper: Collin Balester
With the injury to Shawn Hill and the release of John Patterson, the Nationals have an extremely thin and unstable rotation and plenty of mid-to-upper level pitching prospects waiting in the wings. One of the most qualified, respected, and accomplished prospect is Collin Balester, who unlike his competitors hasn’t had any injury concerns, already had success above AA, and projects as a top-of-the-rotation starter within the next 2-3 years. Balester was the Nats’ #1 ranked prospect according to Baseball America last year and didn’t disappoint, making 27 starts between AA and AAA, posting a sub 4.00 ERA, striking out approximately 7 hitters per nine innings and showing good movement on his pitches. He’s still only 21, but has swiftly conquered the minor league ranks, and as a 6’5’’ righty with good command, could be the first big-name prospect to crack the rotation this year and could have moderate success immediately.

Bust: Dmitri Young
Young was a feel-good story last year, hitting .320 en route to winning Comeback player of the Year, but it looks like the Honeymoon won’t last much longer. First, it appeared as if he put on some of the weight he lost last spring, then he strained his side and missed the start of spring training, and now he’s being challenged for playing time and could platoon with Nick Johnson. With a potential logjam at first, it’s Young, not the oft-injured Johnson, whose name is being whispered in trade rumors and it sounds to an outsider like the Nats are growing tired of Young already after one season. Even if he keeps his head on straight, stays healthy and his weight has no adverse effects on him, it would extremely optimistic to expect him to duplicate his .320/.378/.491 2007 season. His power looked like it regressed despite his re-emergence as a contact hitter and he didn’t finish strong, hitting 51 points lower in the second half of the season with only 5 HRs and 15 doubles. A regression is naturally expected at age 34, but now he’ll have an uphill battle to be an everyday player again in 2008.

Catcher

Highest Rated: Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
Average Draft Position: 29.27 (mid 3rd round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 22/38
Comments: Martinez has been doing battle with Russell Martin this preseason for the #1 fantasy catcher spot, but according to the ADP Report, he’s got a slight lead on him (Martin’s ADP is currently 31.08). This really shouldn’t come as a surprise considering Martinez is the better power hitter, drives in more runs, and has been putting up elite production from the catcher position a little bit longer than Martin has.

Surprisingly High: Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners
Average Draft Position: 124.08 (10th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 96/147
Comments: Most people would agree that there are five elite catchers this season (Martinez, Martin, Mauer, McCann, and Posada) and that if you don’t land one of them, you can wait until the latter stages of the draft to fill the position. Johjima is ranked as the 6th best catcher on the ADP and I have no qualms with that, but he is going, on average, 28 picks (approximately 2 1/2 rounds) before the #7 ranked catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Johjima is a good hitter and has shown good consistency in both his pro seasons, but there really shouldn’t be that much urgency expressed in landing Johjima after the top five are gone; he’s good, but he’s not that much better than the other top catchers still on the board.

Surprisingly Low: Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles
Average Draft Position: 254.96 (22nd round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 174/Undrafted
Comments: Hernandez is currently the fourteenth ranked catcher and that’s not too hard to believe since he hit .258-9-62 last year, but it’s a bit surprising a player with his offensive upside, despite coming off a down year, would be drafted behind an aging Jason Varitek, low upside A.J. Pierzynski, and a relative unknown in J.R. Towles. It was only two years ago that Hernandez hit .275-23-91 and was considered an up-and-coming talent at the position. He struggled with injuries last year, but he’s bulked up and is back at full strength for 2008 and has more upside than most of the catchers immediately listed ahead of him, despite sharing relatively equal injury risks.

First Base

Highest Rated: Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
Average Draft Position: 10.38 (late 1st round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 5/15
Comments: For the first time in a long time, Albert Pujols is no longer the top-ranked fantasy 1B, despite spending almost the entire preseason in the #1 position. He has since been passed up by power-hitting beast, Ryan Howard, as concerns surrounding his elbow and potential season-ending surgery loom. Howard has been pushing Pujols for top placement amongst first basemen for sometime now, but has finally pulled ahead of him for the first time, but by a very slight margin (Howard’s ADP is 10.38, Pujols’ is 10.90). Both are coming off relatively disappointing seasons, but considering Howard still hit 47 HRs (third-best in all of baseball) in his “disappointing season” and has no injury concerns, it’s not surprising he’s passed Pujols on the ADP report.

Surprisingly High: Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates
Average Draft Position: 219.76 (18th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 146/Undrafted
Comments: Upon scanning the first basemen in terms of ADP, no one actually stuck out as being drafted significantly too high. I chose LaRoche not because I disagreed with his 16^th overall 1B ranking in terms of draft position, but because Joey Votto, the 17^th ranked 1B and a Rookie of the Year frontrunner who could be on the verge of a monster season, is going, on average, 63 picks later. LaRoche has become infamous for his first half slumps and second-half rebounds and as a result is usually on the waiver wire of most leagues deep into July, early August, so I see no need to rush the affair. It’s especially surprising to me to see him going five full rounds earlier than Votto, who has more offensive upside and plays in a more conducive offensive environment.

Surprisingly Low: Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
Average Draft Position: 37.51 (early 4th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 27/49
Comments: For the second straight year, I think Morneau is being vastly undervalued in terms of draft position. His 2007 average did take a fifty-point dip from 2006, but he still put together a very good campaign, hitting .271-31-111. He doesn’t have the 40 HR-potential Mark Teixeira does and Teixeira will probably hit for average slightly better than Morneau will over the course of time, but I don’t see enough of a difference between the two to warrant a 16 pick gap. Teixeira is usually off the board by early-to-mid second round, but Morneau is teetering between late third to early fourth round value. Teixeira may have more power potential, but over the last two years, Morneau has more HRs and more RBIs, but despite this he has still fallen and sits only three picks higher than Derrek Lee in terms of ADP.

Second Base

Highest Rated: Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Average Draft Position: 8.18 (mid-to-late 1st round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 4/12
Comments: To no one’s surprise, Utley has a stranglehold on the 2B position for the second straight season and his ADP is one full round higher than the next highest second baseman, Brandon Phillips. Utley missed 30 games last year with injury and had he not gotten hurt, it might’ve been him who won MVP, not teammate Jimmy Rollins. Utley finished with a line of .332-22-103-9, raising his career batting average to .300, and posting back-to-back 40+ double, 100+ run, 100+ RBI seasons. If he stays healthy in all of 2008 (as he did for 2006 & 2007), he could even separate himself further from the pack and return to the 30-HR plateau.

Surprisingly High: Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers
Average Draft Position: 116.54 (9th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 81/147
Comments: I hate to use the same players from last year’s ADP reports in the same categories as I did a year ago because it makes it seem more like a personal vendetta against a particular player than providing unbiased observations, but I still don’t understand why Rickie Weeks has asserted himself as a surefire fantasy starter. He has a great power/speed combo and he’s in a great lineup, but he’s a terrible hitter with runners in scoring position, has too many holes in swing and strikes out too often, and has never played more than 118 games in a season. He’s got a skill set that tantalizes scouts and his upside is probably why he continues to be drafted over more productive, safer options, but he’s either eventually going to have put it all together or accept the bust label, and the time is running out. He’s made progress as shown by a good second half last year, but he’s still raw and still making the same mistakes he did as a rookie. He could be the #7 best fantasy 2B by season’s end (as his draft position would have you believe) just as easily as he could get hurt and hit .235 again, which surprises me that he’s being drafted higher than Howie Kendrick, Jeff Kent, and Aaron Hill.

Surprisingly Low: Placido Polanco, Detroit Tigers
Average Draft Position: 164.25 (13th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 112/207
Comments: Polanco is currently being drafted as the 12^th highest 2B, which means he’s a borderline starter in standard leagues, despite hitting .341 last season. He does have a history of occasional injury and outside of his batting average, he doesn’t really contribute to any statistic at an above-average rate, but you would think he is still at least a top 10 2B. Last year he hit nine HRs and stole seven bases, nothing fantastic, but he did score 105 runs, and he has shown double-digit HR potential in the recent past (he hit 17 in 2004). While he’s not a great HR hitter, his slugging percentage is still respectable (thanks to 36 doubles last year) and he had the third-highest OPS amongst qualifying second basemen in 2007. It’s unreasonable to expect anyone to hit .341 in a season as Polanco did last year, but if anyone could duplicate it, he’d be a prime candidate as the hardest hitter in baseball to strikeout and as a player who has hit .338 and .341 in two of his three seasons in Detroit. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s likely to hit second and score plenty of runs in arguably the deepest lineup in baseball.

Shortstop

Highest Rated: Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins
Average Draft Position: 2.64 (early 1st round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 1/6
Comments: Ramirez is in a highly-contested battle for the top shortstop position with fellow division-mates, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins. It’s not surprising though that Ramirez has the edge in ADP after he finished just one HR shy of joining the 30-50 club, while hitting .332, stroking 48 doubles, and driving in 81 runs. He also scored 125 runs, a total that could take a dip without Miguel Cabrera in the lineup anymore, but a number that would still be impressive even if there was a 20% attrition rate in 2008. Meanwhile, Jose Reyes slumped to end the year and was pretty much dominated across the board from a statistics standpoint by Ramirez. His edge over the competition is narrow, but it is well-earned.

Surprisingly High: Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians
Average Draft Position: 172.12 (14th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 132/208
Comments: Peralta’s ADP and draft status are prime examples of fantasy owners’ uncontrollable urge to overdraft power hitters at every position. Peralta is currently the 13^th ranked shortstop in terms of ADP, despite his 21 HRs being his only numbers above-average amongst the top shortstops in fantasy baseball. He did score an impressive 87 runs and should continue to do so in a solid lineup, but he’s a .266 lifetime hitter and despite his power, has never been a great source of RBIs. He had a solid season in 2008, hitting .270-21-72, but with no speed and high strikeout rate, we saw just how harmful he could be as a starting shortstop if he struggles with his power as he did in 2006 (hitting .257-13-68). Despite being a borderline-starter, he doesn’t really offer any other starting qualities besides his power and is being drafted two full rounds ahead of Khalil Greene, who is a similar hitter with more pop than Peralta.

Surprisingly Low: Yunel Escobar, Atlanta Braves
Average Draft Position: 195.71 (16th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 128/Undrafted
Comments: I can’t help but continue to wax poetically about Escobar every opportunity I get this preseason. Escobar’s 195.71 ADP means you can usually find him still available in the 15^th-16^th round range and after less inspiring options like the aforementioned Jhonny Peralta and J.J. Hardy. He’s a bit risky as a second-year starter, but after hitting .326-5-28-5 last year as a rookie, concerns should significantly diminish. He also carries 2B, SS, and 3B eligibility in a year with so few flexible utility infielders and will be an everyday starter despite his flexibility. Taking into consideration his potential, his usefulness as a bench player, and the lineup he’ll be hitting in, if he’s worth a top 10 round pick by next season.

Third Base

Highest Rated: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Average Draft Position: 1.07 (first overall)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 1/2
Comments: After hitting 54 HRs, driving in 156 runs, scoring 143 runs, stealing 24 bases, hitting .314, and posting a ridiculous 1.067 OPS, A-Rod has earned the undisputed #1 overall pick tag going into 2008. He re-upped with the Yankees with the richest contract in history, so more of the same should be expected from the future all-time home run king and man who hasn’t hit less than 35 homers, drove in less than 105 runs, or hit under .285 in a decade. His 1.07 ADP means that he’s going #1 overall in 93 out of every 100 drafts and the fact that he hasn’t gone lower than 2^nd overall in any of them means that he’s the #2 pick in the other 7 drafts. History shows us that the #1 undisputed pick isn’t always the best option, but with his numbers, track record, and fantasy trade value, it’s almost entirely too difficult to pass him up.

Surprisingly High: Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs
Average Draft Position: 34.22 (late 3rd round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 26/45
Comments: Ramirez is what he is, a very good power hitter, who has stabilized a respectable batting average over the past four seasons. He’s been good for 30+ HRs in three of the last four years, 100+ RBIs in three of the last four years, and a .300 batting average in three of the last four years. The only thing is Ramirez isn’t ever going to get much better than he did in 2008, hitting .291-38-119. That’s not a bad thing per se, but after a 12-HR did in 2007, it’s surprising he’s still ranked ahead of the Rockies’ Garrett Atkins. He’s definitely top-tier starter quality, but he lacks the upside of Atkins or Ryan Zimmerman, and even though he strung together four very good seasons, he’s still a bit risky with injury concerns and his proneness to extended slumps and power outages (hitting only 6 HRs between June, July, and August last year). He’s going in the mid-to-late third, but he’s probably better suited as a 4^th/5^th round pick.

Surprisingly Low: Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
Average Draft Position: 90.22 (mid-7th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 57/116
Comments: Zimmerman’s statistical regression was inevitable last season on a moribund offense, in arguably the most favorable pitcher’s park in baseball, and having to shoulder the load of the entire team. Prior to a disappointing 2007, people were bridging the gap between him and David Wright, and while he’s not in that class yet, he showed in 2006 as the Rookie of the Year runner-up, he’s got top-5 3B potential with good support. The Nationals patched up the lineup and Zimmerman got a much needed year of seasoning as a team leader under his belt and the Nationals will leave cavernous RFK for a new more offensively-conducive stadium this season. He’s showed great endurance playing every game last season, and though his average dipped a bit, his power numbers and walk-to-strikeout rate remained nearly identical. At age 23 on a team on the rise, he could be due for the breakout year many wanted to see last year. He hit nearly 30 points higher after the All-Star break and finished strong, making him a very good value as the #9 ranked 3B in terms of ADP.

Outfield

Highest Rated: Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
Average Draft Position: 5.19 (mid-1st round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 2/9
Comments: Holliday is the only outfielder whose ADP falls in the first round of standard-sized leagues and despite a thinner than usual outfield pool, he might be a better #1 overall OF than Alfonso Soriano was a year ago. Holliday hit .340-36-137-11 and is entrenched in one of the best lineups in baseball and gets to play his home games in the boombox that is Coors Field. Some may write Holliday off as a top-tier outfielder because he gets to play his home games at Coors (where he hit .376-25-82 last year), but that isn’t going to change anytime soon and we saw Larry Walker put up top-notch fantasy production year in and out despite uninspiring home/away splits. Holliday has tremendous power, will drive in and score triple-digit run totals, and he’s still a well-above-average hitter on the road, hitting .301-11-55 away from Coors last year, en route to earning the #1 OF spot for 2008.

Surprisingly High: Nick Swisher, Chicago White Sox
Average Draft Position: 83.79 (late 6th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 63/108
Comments: Like Rickie Weeks, this is the second straight year I find Nick Swisher’s draft position well higher than I would ever take him. He’s currently ranked as the 24^th drafted outfielder, making him a borderline #2 OF in standard-sized leagues, despite hitting .262-22-78 last year. Perhaps a trade out of pitcher-friendly Oakland to a more stable White Sox lineup will give him a power boost, but it’s doubtful it will work wonders on his .251 lifetime AVG. He’s a better power hitter than his 22 HRs and 78 RBIs indicate and he could hit 30 home runs in any given season, but other than his ability to draw walks (something most leagues don’t directly reward), he possesses little speed, doesn’t score a ton of runs, and has never topped 100 RBIs. He’s currently being drafted ahead of Hideki Matsui, Jason Bay, and Matt Kemp.

Surprisingly High: Johnny Damon, New York Yankees
Average Draft Position: 122.44 (10th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 101/148
Comments: Damon looked like he aged about five years both at the plate and in the field over the course of last season and though he greatly benefited from a late-season hot streak, he still finished with an uninspiring line of .270-12-63-27. His best asset last year was his 93 runs scored, something owners should continue to benefit from in a great lineup, but owners should be cautious that Damon could lose the leadoff spot after hitting .270 last year and posting his lowest OBP in four years. He’s still sharp on the basepaths, but at age 34, it’s likely he’s turning into a more power-emphatic hitter than the speed/average producer he was in years past. The problem for Damon owners is he’s only hit more than 20 HRs once in his career and as his AVG continues to decline (as it did last year for the third straight year), he’s probably best suited as a back-up, despite being drafted as a starter.

i>Surprisingly Low: Magglio Ordonez, Detroit Tigers
Average Draft Position: 32.34 (mid-to-late 3rd round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 23/41
Comments: Some players’ reputations will be forever tainted because of the most untimely injuries and such is likely the case for Magglio Ordonez. In his first six seasons as a pro, he played 145+ games every season and has only missed twelve games over the last two years. In between, though, just as Ordonez was on the verge of reaching superstar status, he had back-to-back injury-riddled campaigns in 2004 and 2005, and he probably single-handedly ruined many teams chances of winning championships those two years. The facts stand, though, Ordonez has been fully healthy for 8 of his 10 pro seasons, and in each of those healthy seasons has hit at least 24 home runs, drove in 100 runs every year except once (when he had 99 RBIs in 2003), and has maintained a lifetime .312 AVG. Since coming back from injury, he’s looked better than ever, despite his home run power tailing off a bit, and put up Ted Williams-esque production last year with 54 doubles, 28 HRs, 139 RBIs, a 76/79 BB/K rate, hitting .363, and slugging .595. It may have been a bit over his head, but not by much, and has he continues to hit in the heart of baseball’s best lineup, more of the same should be expected – which is why it is so surprising that he is the 12^th ranked OF in terms of ADP (making him a borderline #1 OF in standard formats).

Surprisingly Low: Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles
Average Draft Position: 47.38 (late 4th round, early 5th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 31/63
Comments: Markakis has thrived in Baltimore with little fanfare as the team has struggled to be competitive and has been stripped of its stars, which has been a blessing in disguise for fantasy owners who know what he is capable of accomplishing. In his second season, he continued the trend of a slow start followed by a red-hot second half, but this time, the numbers were better all-around. He’s continuing to improve as the 24-year old centerpiece of the Orioles’ lineup and while he could have a minor setback like Ryan Zimmerman did shouldering the load for the Nats last year, it’s hard to argue with his numbers: 23 HRs, 112 RBI, 18 SB, and a .300 AVG. Despite his tremendous upside, his success thus far, and the fact that he’s building off of a .325-14-61-9 second half, he’s still falling to the late fourth, early fifth rounds of most drafts, a boon for owners, considering his youth and 30/30 potential.

Starting Pitchers

Highest Rated: Johan Santana, New York Mets
Average Draft Position: 13.01 (late 1st round, early 2nd round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 2/19
Comments: For the first time since 2003, last year was not a Cy Young-worthy season from Johan Santana and he was out-produced and performed by a handful of young pitchers. Nevertheless, he was the #1 starting pitcher by such a wide margin and long period of time that even if he wasn’t the best last season, he’s still the odds-on favorite to be the best this season. He still went 15-13 with a 3.33 ERA and 235 K, but those will be expected to be improved upon, considering his career season averages and the fact that he is now a New York Met. The Mets will give him better run support and he’ll get to avoid facing the Indians, who he went 0-5 against in 6 starts last year, and should benefit from his new home park in a lighter-hitting division and league. His imminent rebound expected and his past credentials justify him as the #1 selected SP despite a setback season in 2007.

Surprisingly High: Chris Young, San Diego Padres
Average Draft Position: 85.88 (early 7th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 72/108
Comments: Prior to last season, Chris Young was an above-average pitcher. He wasn’t great, but he was a serviceable #3 fantasy starter with a good strikeout rate and improve peripherals. In 2007, Young broke out in the first half of the year, nearly outshining teammate and Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy, going 8-3 with a 2.00 ERA and 99 Ks in 103.2 IP. While continuing his success in July and leading the majors in opposing batting average, Young suffered an oblique injury on July 24^th that put him on the 15-day DL, but he did not come back as the same pitcher. In August and September, he made a combined ten starts, going 0-5 with a 5.97 ERA to finish the season. He’s rehabbed the injury and claims to be back at 100%, but his velocity is down this spring (and he only threw about 85-88mph before the injury), and with his frame (at 6’10’’) and pitching motion, he could be a high risk for re-injury in the future. Obviously, the rewards can be bountiful, but they’ll come with high risk of injury and attrition, which makes it surprising that he’s entrenched as a #2 fantasy starter this year despite being at best a #3 for his entire career, the first half of last year excluded.

Surprisingly High: Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs
Average Draft Position: 132.42 (11th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 110/150
Comments: Lilly had the best year of his career and his first full-season sub-4.00 ERA in his first year with the Cubs. He probably benefited from the league switch to the NL, but even with 15 wins, 174 strikeouts, and a 3.83 ERA at age 32, he tops out as a fantasy #3/#4 starter. Coming off his career year of 2007, he’s currently 31^st amongst starting pitchers in ADP, meaning he’s being drafted a mid-tier #3 starter, but more importantly, over the likes of Chad Billingsley and superprospects Yovani Gallardo and Phil Hughes, all with much higher ceilings and better run support. Lilly has been solid in the last couple of seasons, but he’s more of a veteran staff filler in fantasy leagues than the type of pitcher than can push you over the top, like some of the higher-upside young pitchers he’s being taken ahead of. A slight regression to his career averages and he’s not that distinguishable from the best available waiver wire starters.

Surprisingly Low: Aaron Harang, Cincinnati Reds
Average Draft Position: 70.76 (late 6th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 52/88
Comments: Harang has been a model for consistency, endurance, and successful power pitching as the Reds’ ace for the last three seasons, thriving despite his team’s lack of success and making half his starts in a hitter’s park. Harang is the glamorous version of Livan Hernandez at his peak; he’s young, he can pitch 200+ innings annually, pitches late in games to pick up hard-fought wins, and has a great strikeout rate. He’ll give up a lot of HRs, but limits his mistakes, and has seen his ERA, strikeout total, and WHIP improve each of the last three seasons. He’s also got 8 complete games and 3 shutouts over the last two seasons, but is still barely cracking fantasy ace status as the 12^th starter selected on average, according to the ADP report. He’s currently behind an injured John Lackey, Carlos Zambrano, who he surpassed last season as the NL Central’s best starter, and Dan Haren, who despite a breakout year in 2007, had a lower strikeout rate, one less win, and a higher WHIP than Harang last year.

Surprisingly Low: Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
Average Draft Position: 134.64 (11th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 108/162
Comments: Gallardo has been hyped up as a future ace and strikeout king since dominating rookie ball in 2004. He sailed through every stop in the minors, always posting a sub-3.00 ERA, a strikeout rate greater than 1 K/IP, and throwing electrifying stuff, en route to garnering more publicity and fanfare as he approached the majors. Then, he finally broke through to the big leagues in 2007 and did not disappoint, going 9-5 with a 3.67 ERA and striking out 101 in 110.1 IP. His rookie accomplishments get even better when you take into consideration he had a slip-up at hitter-friendly Coors Field last year, allowing 11 ER in 2.2 IP, and with that aberration removed from his stats, he would’ve finished with a 2.86 ERA. It’s surprising, though, considering his track record, fanfare, pedigree, pitching arsenal, strikeout rate, and fact that he’s secured the # spot on a good team in a bad division, that he’s not being championed as at least a #2 fantasy starter. Instead, he’s being drafted as a #3, behind the likes of Ted Lilly and John Maine, as well as fellow youngsters Tim Lincecum and Rich Hill. Gallardo may be young and may only have 17 starts under his belt, but the potential rewards, low risk factor, and fact that he’ll get to match up against inferior #3 starters all year, should have his value on the verge of skyrocketing to potential ace status.

Relief Pitchers

Highest Rated: Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Average Draft Position: 45.74 (mid-to-late 4th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 32/58
Comments: It seems as if there are four closers this preseason (Papelbon, Putz, Nathan, or K-Rod) that are worthy of #1 RP status. The winner appears to be Papelbon, the owner of a 10.86K/9IP rate, 72 saves, and owner of a miniscule 1.34 ERA over the last two seasons since becoming the Red Sox closer. He’s shown no weaknesses, has dominated from start to finish in both seasons, benefits from plenty of save opportunities on a winning ball club coming off a World Series championship, and has not faltered under pressure. Unlike K-Rod, he has no contract issues, unlike Nathan, he won’t have to worry about save opportunities, and unlike Putz, he’s strung together back-to-back historically great seasons. He’ll be 27 this season and in his third year as Boston’s stopper, which means he probably hasn’t even peaked yet. This is a scary thought considering the success he’s had already, which further justifies his #1 RP status in terms of draft position.

Surprisingly High: Manny Corpas, Colorado Rockies
Average Draft Position: 123.18 (10th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 96/145
Comments: Corpas had a great debut as closer, taking over for incumbent Brian Fuentes in the second half of the season, and help guiding the team to the World Series last year. He made 34 post-All Star Break appearances, picked up 18 saves, striking out 25 in 35.0 IP, and posting a 1.54 ERA, but without any kind of track record indicating he will pitch at this level annually, it’s surprising he was so quickly rewarded with a huge contract from the Rockies and has rocketed up the ADP charts. He was solid but unspectacular for most of his minor league career prior to posting a 0.98 ERA in AA in 2006, but his rookie season in the majors was rather pedestrian. He could be bound for great things, but he’ll need to cut down on his HR rate (no easy task while pitching at Coors), still have to fend off Fuentes for saves, and improve his strikeout rate if he’s to have #1 closer value, as he’s already being drafted as in 2008 mock drafts.

Surprisingly Low: Billy Wagner, New York Mets
Average Draft Position: 94.20 (8th round)
Highest/Lowest Draft Positions: 78/111
Comments: There’s really nothing else Billy Wagner can do or improve upon as a closer, but yet he hasn’t climbed into that upper-echelon of closers, in terms of ADP, in his two seasons as a Met. Since 2001, Wagner has seven straight sub-2.75 ERA seasons all with strikeout rates well above 1 K/IP, and all but one (a 2004 season hindered by injury) resulting in 34 or more saves. Wagner is still a strikeout king amongst closers and though he’s become more hittable (.219 and .216 opposing batting averages as a Met after five straight sub-.200 BAAs), he’s still producing near peak levels at age 36. He has 74 saves in his two seasons as a Met (2 more than Papelbon in that timespan), and will continue to rack them up as the undisputed closer on a team expected to be amongst the winningest teams in baseball in 2008. Despite his production, reliability, and high chance of save opportunities this season, he is drafted as the 8^th closer overall, behind less reliable options such as Francisco Cordero and Jose Valverde, both on new teams expected to be in the middle-of-the-pack in the NL Central and both with much higher likelihoods of regressing or imploding.

The View: Olson is powerful lefty with a lot of upside, but he might project better in the bullpen in the long run. He still has control issues to work out and there’s no need to rush him at this point. The Orioles’ have plenty of young pitchers competing for a 5th spot this spring and even with Olson out of the picture, it’s still murky. The odds-on favorite right now is newly-acquired Matt Albers, who came over in the Miguel Tejada trade from the Astros. Other possible candidates are in-house options Brian Burres and Jim Johnson, neither of which impressed in the majors last year.

Update: Equally disappointing news for baseball’s other Olson/Olsen twin was on display as AP sportswriter Steven Wine published this piece from the Marlins’ spring training site, which as many of us expected, states that Scott Olsen is still struggling to maintain control of his pitches (and his life). Olsen is one of four starters battling for the Opening Day nod and the role of ace, but if he’s still as erratic as he was last year as the article claims, he’s not likely to win.

The View: In 2006, Olsen emerged as a top-of-the-line quality young lefty, going 12-10 with a 4.04 ERA as a rookie. Then last season, he imploded under new managerment. It’s possible, he was overworked under Joe Girardi in 2006 or it’s possible he’s struggling with the mental aspects of the game, as he’s shown to lose his temper and control at times and has had some off-the-field issues. Whatever the reasons, when the load was placed upon his shoulder last year, he collapsed, going 10-15 with a 5.81 ERA and .315 BAA. He lost his control to a degree and saw his walk rate jump a bit, but the bigger problem was he was all too hittable. His strikeout total dropped by 33 and he gave up 66 more hits in four less innings from 2006 to 2007. Arm fatigue seems likely, but he never got it together in 2007 and it doesn’t sound like the kinks have been worked out yet in 2008. Right now, he should be avoided in all formats but the deepest NL-only leagues. It’s likely he’ll improve to some degree, but with minimal run support on a team likely to finish in dead-last and his draft value at an all-time low, you’ll be able to pluck him off the waiver wire rather than use a draft pick on him.

Notes: For 2008, the first number represents (on a scale from 1-10) the likelihood that the closer and/or other relievers blocking the player from taking over as closer get injured, are ineffective, or traded. It also includes the likelihood of that player getting traded to become another team’s closer or assuming the role of closer due to exceptional performance – basically it is a scaled number to indicate the possibility of receiving save opportunities on a regular basis. The second number (also on a 1-10 scale) indicates how effective I believe the player would be if they inherited the role of closer. Also, some of the closer battles have not yet been officially decided, but I have included those who I do not think will open the season as their team’s closer (i.e. Kerry Wood & Bob Howry).

The Top 25 Middle Relievers

1. Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers
2007: 82.0 IP, 4 W, 2 SV, 99 K, 32 HLD, 2.85 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
2008: 5.5; 9.0

2. Hideki Okajima, Boston Red Sox
2007: 69.0 IP, 3 W, 5 SV, 63 K, 27 HLD, 2.22 ERA, 0.97 WHIP
2008: 2.0; 8.0

3. Scot Shields, Los Angeles Angels
2007: 77.0 IP, 4 W, 2 SV, 77 K, 31 HLD, 3.86 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
2008: 3.0; 8.0

4. Joba Chamberlain, New York Yankees
2007: 24.0 IP, 2 W, 1 SV, 34 K, 8 HLD, 0.34 ERA, 0.75 WHIP
2008: 2.0; 7.0

5. Pat Neshek, Minnesota Twins
2007: 70.1 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 74 K, 15 HLD, 2.94 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
2008: 4.5; 7.5

6. Brian Fuentes, Colorado Rockies
2007: 61.1 IP, 3 W, 20 SV, 56 K, 8 HLD, 3.08 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
2008: 7.0; 8.0

7. Rafael Betancourt, Cleveland Indians
2007: 79.1 IP, 5 W, 3 SV, 80 K, 31 HLD, 1.47 ERA, 0.76 WHIP
2008: 5.0; 7.5

8. Joaquin Benoit, Texas Rangers
2007: 82.0 IP, 7 W, 6 SV, 87 K, 19 HLD, 2.85 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
2008: 5.5; 7.0

9. Derrick Turnbow, Milwaukee Brewers
2007: 68.0 IP, 4 W, 1 SV, 84 K, 33 HLD, 4.63 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
2008: 6.5; 7.5

10. Tony Pena, Arizona Diamondbacks
2007: 85.1 IP, 5 W, 2 SV, 63 K, 30 HLD, 3.27 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
2008: 7.5; 7.0

11. Justin Speier, Los Angeles Angels
2007: 50.0 IP, 2 W, 0 SV, 47 K, 24 HLD, 2.88 ERA, 0.96 WHIP
2008: 2.0; 6.5

12. Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
2007: 93.2 IP, 6 W, 2 SV, 102 K, 34 HLD, 2.02 ERA, 0.96 WHIP
2008: 4.0; 7.0

13. Jon Rauch, Washington Nationals
2007: 87.1 IP, 8 W, 4 SV, 71 K, 33 HLD, 3.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
2008: 5.0; 6.5

14. Masahide Kobayashi, Cleveland Indians
2007: N/A
2008: 6.0; 7.5

15. Bob Howry, Chicago Cubs
2007: 81.1 IP, 6 W, 8 SV, 72 K, 22 HLD, 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
2008: 7.0; 7.0

16. Aaron Heilman, New York Mets
2007: 86.0 IP, 7 W, 1 SV, 63 K, 22 HLD, 3.03 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
2008: 3.5; 6.5

17. Matt Lindstrom, Florida Marlins
2007: 67.0 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 62 K, 19 HLD, 3.09 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
2008: 5.0; 7.0

18. Jeremy Accardo, Toronto Blue Jays
2007: 67.1 IP, 4 W, 30 SV, 57 K, 2 HLD, 2.14 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
2008: 6.5; 7.0

19. Scott Downs, Toronto Blue Jays
2007: 58.0 IP, 4 W, 1 SV, 57 K, 24 HLD, 2.17 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
2008: 3.5; 6.0

20. Chad Qualls, Arizona Diamondbacks
2007: 82.2 IP, 6 W, 5 SV, 78 K, 21 HLD, 3.05 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
2008: 4.0; 6.0

21. Damaso Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates
2007: 45.1 IP, 2 W, 0 SV, 51 K, 15 HLD, 2.38 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
2008: 3.5; 6.5

22. Rafael Perez, Cleveland Indians
2007: 60.2 IP, 1 W, 1 SV, 62 K, 12 HLD, 1.78 ERA, 0.92 WHIP
2008: 3.0; 6.5

23. Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs
2007: 24.1 IP, 1 W, 0 SV, 24 K, 0 HLD, 3.33 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
2008: 7.5; 7.0

24. Russ Springer, St. Louis Cardinals
2007: 66.0 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 66 K, 11 HLD, 2.18 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
2008: 4.5; 5.5

25. Brandon Morrow, Seattle Mariners
2007: 63.1 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 66 K, 18 HLD, 4.12 ERA, 1.67 WHIP
2008: 2.5; 6.0

Also Receiving Consideration: Tom Gordon, Philadelphia Phillies; Peter Moylan, Atlanta Braves; Manny Delcarmen, Boston Red Sox; David Weathers, Cincinnati Reds; Scott Linebrink, Chicago White Sox; Bobby Seay, Detroit Tigers; Justin Miller, Florida Marlins; Yasuhito Yabuta, Kansas City Royals; David Riske, Milwaukee Brewers; Matt Guerrier, Minnesota Twins; Duaner Sanchez, New York Mets; Pedro Feliciano, New York Mets; Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals; Al Reyes, Tampa Bay Rays

Observations: Jonathan Broxton has the edge over Hideki Okajima, Joba Chamberlain, and Pat Neshek, because he has proved he can do this on a yearly basis. While the aforementioned three had phenomenal seasons, it was Okajima’s and Chamberlain’s rookie seasons and Neshek’s first full-season. Chamberlain and Neshek have about as much upside as Broxton, they’ll just need to prove their reliability before they’re in his class……….On numbers alone, Rafael Betancourt could arguably be #1 overall, but he’s slid a few notches with a slow start and rumors that newly-acquired Masahide Kobayashi would be first in line for save opportunities if something happens to Joe Borowski……….Tony Pena has everything but the strikeout rate, but with such a good chance of closing by season’s end, he had to slide into the top ten……Heath Bell, on last year’s performance alone, could be a top 5 middle reliever, but there’s a high chance of regression after emerging from obscurity. If he duplicates his success from last year, he could be in the top 5 next season if he’s not already the Padres’ closer………….Matt Lindstrom can hit 100 mph on the radar gun on occasion and has the make-up of a closer; the problem is Kevin Gregg is entrenched in the role already and when Henry Owens is healthy, Lindstrom might not even be the set-up man. Plus, as the team undergoes a rebuild, the opportunities for saves and holds could be very slim with such a deep bullpen, other he could be higher on the list.

Sleeper: Kendry Morales
One reason the Angels didn’t go shopping for a first baseman this season other Casey Kotchman’s breakout is because they have Morales waiting in the wings. He’s a 24-year old, 6’2’’ 225 masher with power to spare, surprisingly good contact-hitting abilities, and is well beyond his years in terms of polish. He’s got a smooth swing and he’s good enough in the field to not be a liability. He also picked up some time in right field and if he makes the roster, could pick up 1B/OF elibigility by midseason. He hit .324-21-82 and .391-9-42 in his two seasons in Cuba as a 19 & 20 year old and has hit .320-12-52 and .341-5-37 in AAA in parts of the last two seasons. He’s got a career 2:1 K: rate in his career and has hit at every stop. He’s ready to play everyday, he just needs an extended opportunity. It could come sooner than people think with Kotchman nursing a shin injury and possibly starting on the DL while Morales is hitting .375 with 2 HRs and 6 RBIs this spring.

Deep Sleeper: Justin Speier
Despite missing two full months last year as a result of flu-like symptoms and getting bombed in August after making his return (14.1 IP, 3 HRA, 6.28 ERA), he still finished with top-20 mid-relief numbers. He made 51 relief appearance (his seventh straight year of 50+ games), posted a 2.88 ERA (his third straight sub-3.00 ERA), recorded 24 holds, maintained a 4:1 K:BB rate, and had a sub-1.00 WHIP (0.96). He’s in a great bullpen on a team that wins plenty of close games, giving him ample opportunities to rack up holds. The team is also partial to him as their 7^th inning man (as seen by his 51 appearances is just over half of a season last year) and he thrives in the lower-pressured middle innings. He’ll get plenty of work, has no injury track record, and is a good source of holds and strikeouts, and assuming he doesn’t catch the flu again, he’s a potential top-10 non-closer amongst eligible RPs.

Bust: Maicer Izturis
The idea behind dealing Orlando Cabrera was that Izturis would pick up where he left off. Izturis is clearly better than a bench player with a good glove and hitting .293-5-44 and .289-6-51 in the last two seasons, but whether he’s meant to be a full-time starter or a utility player is still yet to be determined. He’s got everything you’d look for in a platoon/utility role, hitting for average, playing good defense, and flashing some speed, the question is if his bat would hold up for a full-season. The Angels are apparently pretty concerned about that, and as a result, it looks like Izturis could be platooning with the more offensive-minded Erick Aybar. Izturis could be a valuable fantasy bench player, but now that the position battle is looking like a future timeshare, you can cross off any expectations of him duplicating Cabrera’s success of a year ago.

Oakland A’s
Surprise: Justin Duchscherer
Prior to a disappointing 2007 season cut short by injury, Duchscherer had established himself as one of the best setup men in the AL. Between 2004-06, he made 171 relief apperances, vultured 14 saves, striking out 195 hitters to walking 60, and posting a 2.80 ERA as the team’s primary set-up man and temporary closer. Before moving to the bullpen, he was an accomplished minor league starter who was 12-2 with a 3.12 ERA in his last minor league stint. Now, he’ll be back in the rotation and as the A’s transformed Chad Gaudin back into a successful starter last year, they could do the same to Duchscherer, who has more upside, this year. He’s 30 years old with minimal mileage, a defined role, and good pedigree – if he’s healthy, he could make Joe Blanton easier to part with and assume the #2 starter spot.

Sleeper: Daric Barton
There were a number of young first basemen who got their first crack at an extended major-league stay last year and made the most of their opportunities. As a result, despite Barton’s pedigree, successful minor league career, and the fact that he’ll be expected to be the full-time starter in 2008, he’s overshadowed by the likes of James Loney and Joey Votto. Nevertheless, Barton is still a more than adequate back-up 1B option, as his power stroke continues to develop and he maintains his ridiculously high walk rate (313 BB to 266 K in 1,970 career minor league plate appearances). He hit .347-4-8 and walked 10 times in his 18-game debut last year and it sets the table for a big 2008 despite little fanfare as a potential ROY frontrunner.

Deep Sleeper: Ryan Sweeney
Sweeney may not overly excel in any particular aspect of the game, but as a 6’4’’ 200 lb. hitter with good pop, respectable defense, and deceivingly good speed, he should make for a solid pro. His major-league career should take off in 2008 as the anticipated left field starter for the A’s and he looks like he could be a Nick Markakis-lite fantasy option, adjusting to the league and hitting his stride by midseason. He could feasibly contribute to all five fantasy categories depending on the hitters before him getting on base and getting an opportunity to score runs. He’s a .289 career minor league hitter who’s hit 23 HRs in the last two seasons, but with his frame, he could develop 20 HR power. In addition to his budding power, he could also steal double-digit bases with enough playing time.

Bust: Bobby Crosby
No player in the last five years may have accomplished less despite earning a good reputation. The only thing consistent in Crosby’s career is his penchant for injury. Since winning Rookie of the Year despite only hitting .239 in 2004, he hasn’t topped 96 games played in any of the last three seasons. He’ll still get his name kicked around as a potential back-end fantasy starter, but with his reputation gradually deteriorating and the depth at shortstop, there’s no reason to even consider drafting him this year. His power is overstated, his walk rate is merely adequate, and he’s hit .226 and .229 in the last two seasons, respectively. The A’s could finally grow tired of his lack of performance and deal him, but until then, he’s an injury-prone shortstop who can’t hit for average and plays in a weak lineup.

Seattle Mariners
Surprise: Yuniesky Betancourt
In two full seasons as a pro, Betancourt has shown great consistency, good production, and improved confidence as he continues to adjust to the league since coming over from Cuba. He’s 26 years old, is a career .284 hitter, and his power is starting to develop. He went from 8 home runs and 28 doubles in 2006 to 9 home runs and 38 doubles last year and with modest size and strength, he is a viable candidate for a third-year breakout. He won’t steal much more than 10-15 bases, but with budding power, good contact-hitting abilities, and little fanfare in a solid lineup, he could be a cheap, effective back-end fantasy starter in 2008.

Sleeper: Brandon Morrow
The 2006 5^th overall draft pick, Morrow has glided through the minors on well-polished mechanics and good repertoire of pitches that help him project successfully as a starter or reliever. If he were dealt in the Bedard deal, he’d probably be the Orioles’ ace right now. Since he’s still a Mariner and the rotation is full, he’ll be expected to be J.J. Putz’s primary set-up man. Similarly to Chad Billingsley’s debut in 2006, last year Morrow flexed all the tools and stuff of a future ace and lived up to his minor-league billing despite control issues. As he gets some more playing time under his belt and gets his control under…control, he has the potential to be a great source of holds and strikeouts in 2008. He allowed only 3 HRs in 63.1 IP in his rookie season and eventually found his niche in the bullpen. His peripherals were only league-average but they should significantly improve as he continues his development and turns 24 this season.

Deep Sleeper: Wladimir Balentein
Like fellow Curacao native, Andruw Jones, Balentein possesses premier power, can hit somewhat for average, but has a propensity for triple-digit strikeout totals. He’s got one of the coolest names in the minors and one of the best power strokes. He came over as a scrawny 19-year old, but has added muscle and has been a power-hitting fixture since he joined the system. He’s hit at least 16 HRs in all five years he’s been in the minors and has 22+ in each of the last three years. He could use a little more refinement in the minors, but with a wide-open fourth outfielder battle and an uninspiring Brad Wilkerson in right field, he could get his chance to crack the majors very soon. In his first three at-bats in the majors last year, he wasted no time displaying his power, belting a home run and driving in 4 runs. He’s an instant power option, despite some holes in his swing and questions regarding how he’ll project in the field. Luckily for him, with an injury-prone Jose Vidro, he could even get a shot as the primary DH in 2008.

Bust: Brad Wilkerson
Now that Wilkerson’s stolen base totals have all but dissipated, his primary asset is his power and even that’s not worth writing home about. He’s a lifetime .250 hitter, but hasn’t topped .250 in three seasons and has only topped 20 HRs once in his career. He’s been injury-prone over the last three years, has struck out 100+ times in every full-season as a pro, and regardless of the lineup he hits in, his RBI totals have always been subpar. He still earned a major-league deal from the Mariners and will likely be their everyday starter in RF, despite declining speed, walk rates, and health. He still gets decent reviews and is often considered a borderline viable fantasy option, but when his lone asset is power and he has a combined 46 HRs in the last three years, he’s got to be considered one of the most overrated positional players in the AL.

Texas Rangers

Surprise: Jason Botts
Like Ryan Shealy with the Royals last year, with Botts’ size, power, and minor league track record, it mystified scouts when his power numbers were so atrocious in the majors. As a 6’5’’ 250 lb. 27-year old in a hitter’s park with 75 HRs in his last four minor league season, it would borderline-shocking if his power numbers didn’t make a steep boost in 2008 as the fulltime DH. It wasn’t a matter of him not being able to handle major-league pitching and getting overpowered as much as it was just poor performance. He has no injury concerns and still had enough faith in him by the Rangers’ organization to let Sammy Sosa go and make him a fulltime starter, and they, as well as many fantasy owners, expect to be rewarded with big power numbers this year. He probably won’t hit for average or contribute outside of HRs and RBIs, but with strength, that should be all he needs to be a productive fantasy option.

Sleeper: C.J. Wilson
Wilson has quickly become my favorite sleeper at closer this year and his value is still very good leading up to Opening Day. As stated before, almost every closer has some red flag this year and other than Wilson’s lack of experience in the ninth-inning (despite an excellent run as the Rangers’ fulltime closer in the second half last year), he really doesn’t have a weakness. He’s improved each year as a pro and it’s shown in his stats. In the second half, once he earned the role of closer, he racked up 12 saves, struck out 28 in 29.0 IP, and posted a 3.07 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .218 BAA, and allowed only 1 HR after May 22nd. He completely owns left-handed hitting and holds his own against righties. The Rangers got off to a bad start last year, but over the stretch of the season, were pretty close to a .500 team. With strong support from the middle relievers, they should preserve plenty of save opportunities for the up-and-coming Wilson in 2008.

Deep Sleeper: Franklyn German
German appeared as a top-10 AL West non-roster invitee in my last article, but has the potential to be much more. He’s always been a phenomenal strikeout pitcher who has a fastball reaching the upper-90’s, but has always struggled with control. Unlike others with a similar make-up, he has stuck with it and has worked closely with the Rangers’ coaching staff to work out the kinks in his mechanics. He’s under a close eye by the staff this spring and has looked sharper than ever so far en route to being a frontrunner for one of the final bullpen spots. He’s done well as a minor-league closer with 86 career saves and has 531 strikeouts in 496.2 career minor-league innings; he just needs to find a way to carry over his success and confidence to the major league level. Now an established minor leaguer at age 28, this big-bodied power-armed potential closer could finally have the experience needed to thrive in the big leagues and as a result makes for a very interesting sleeper in AL-only leagues and leagues that count Holds as a stat.

Bust: Ben Broussard
Broussard will open the season as the Rangers everyday first baseman over better hitters like Chris Shelton and Kevin Mench and franchise cornerstone Jarrod Saltalamacchia simply because he’s the only non-liability defensively. Broussard’s glove is solid, but his bat is overrated. Outside of a great half-season in Cleveland in 2006 (when he hit .321-13-46), but then struggled after being dealt to the Mariners, he’s never displayed starter-quality offensive upside. He tops out as a 15-20 HR on his best days, but his average fluctuates and is hard to pinpoint. He’s a good platoon option and will be expected to hit double-digit homers, but he’s not worth investing as a starter despite winning the first base job. His stranglehold on the job could be tenuous as well as Saltalamacchia continues to develop as a hitter without a spot in the lineup.

Before the division-by-division breakdown, please note I will be using the same criterion as last season to gauge potential value. It is a combination of predicted playing time and the potential success of the player if they receive adequate playing time. Each non-roster invitee will be followed by two numbers representing the following:

1) On a scale from 1-10, the likelihood of making the team, either out of spring training or getting a call up during the season. It is a rough scale to predict potential playing time, and the more immediate the playing time, the better the score.
2) On a scale from 1-10, the impact the player is likely to have upon receiving adequate playing time.

American League East Top 10 Non-Prospect Non-Roster Invitees:

1) Bartolo Colon, SP, Red Sox (7.5/6.0)
2) Morgan Ensberg, 1B/3B, Yankees (6.5/5.0)
3) Steve Trachsel, SP, Orioles (8.0/4.5)
4) Darrell Rasner, SP, Yankees (6.0/4.5)
5) Eric Hinske, 1B/3B/OF, Rays (5.5/4.0)
6) Shannon Stewart, OF, Blue Jays (5.5/4.0)
7) Kevin Cash, C, Red Sox (7.5/3.0)
8) John Rodriguez, OF, Rays (4.5/3.5)
9) Armando Benitez, RP, Blue Jays (5.0/3.0)
10) Heath Phillips, SP, Yankees (3.5/3.5)

Recap: The former 2005 Cy Young award winner, Bartolo Colon, had to settle on a minor-league, incentive-based deal after two straight disappointing seasons marred by injury. His arm strength is still not 100%, but with recent injuries to rotation, could be a favorite to fill-in for time being. He still has upside and with a solid showing this year, could regain middle-of-the-rotation form for 2009……..Morgan Ensberg could be a corner-infield back-up for Yankees this year, but will need to learn 1B and show some contact-hitting abilities to go with above-average power……..Steve Trachsel’s upside is severely limited, but he’s the favorite to be the veteran presence in the rotation as the team rebuilds…….Darrell Rasner doesn’t have the upside of other Yankee pitching prospects, instead he has more experience, trade value, and interest from several NL teams looking for a 5th starter……..Kevin Cash will make the Red Sox roster as the back-up catcher, but he doesn’t carry much of a bat; his value is limited to being able to catch Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball……..Shannon Stewart is back in Toronto and could be a source of modest average and some speed, but will have to surpass Matt Stairs and Buck Coats for a back-up outfield spot

Other AL East NRIs: Luis Terrero, OF, Orioles (good pop, may get playing time); Dan Kolb, RP, Red Sox; Joe Thurston, IF, Red Sox (can hit for average, could fill middle infield spot); Bobby Kielt, OF, Red Sox (power, but inconsistent, brought back but passed up by younger hitters); Bernie Castro, IF, Yankees (stolen base machine, could fill Miguel Cairo’s void); Chris Woodward, IF, Yankees; Jason Lane, OF, Yankees (20 HR power, strikeouts a lot, could be in mix for 5th OF spot); Chris Richard, OF, Rays; Shawn Camp, RP, Blue Jays (important piece of Rays’ pen last year, but far too hittable); Lance Carter, RP, Blue Jays (former Rays’ closer spent last year in Japan); John Parrish, RP, Orioles (lefty starter got off to hot start in ’07 with Orioles before struggling and getting traded)

American League Central Top 10 Non-Prospect Non-Roster Invitees:

1) Mike Maroth, SP, Royals (6.5/4.0)
2) Angel Berroa, SS, Royals (5.5/4.5)
3) Brendan Donnelly, RP, Indians (6.0/3.5)
4) D.J. Carrasco, RP, White Sox (6.0/3.0)
5) Brian Lawrence, SP, Royals (4.5/4.5)
6) Chin-hui Tsao, RP, Royals (5.0/3.5)
7) Zach Day, SP, Twins (4.5/4.0)
8) Jorge Julio, RP, Indians (5.0/3.0)
9) Damon Hollins, OF, Royals (4.5/3.5)
10) Jason Tyner, OF, Indians (3.5/3.0)

Recap:The theme for the AL Central non-roster invitees is a good chance of making a roster combined with low upside. Mike Maroth is a prime example of this, as he’s currently a front-runner for the Royals’ 5^th spot in rotation and to be their lefty-filler. He’s also a former 20-game loser and went 0-5 with a 10.66 ERA with the Cardinals last year. He’s better than that, but low strikeout totals and league-average ERA is his ceiling…….Brendan Donnelly and Jorge Julio are both established relievers and are still major-league quality arms, but are coming bad seasons and Donnelly has to rebound from injury and being implicated in the Mitchell Report to crack a deep bullpen…….D.J. Carrasco, who once closed briefly for Royals, has been a solid AAA pitcher and is in mix for last bullpen spot against White Sox remaining major-league prospects……..Brian Lawrence has the potential to be a middle-of-the-rotation starter if he can regain his arm strength and improve his control. He struggled with the Mets last year, but has enough talent to continue to warrant teams’ interest for back-of-the-rotation spots each year…….Chin-hui Tsao didn’t allow a run in his first ten appearances in the Dodgers’ bullpen last year and could be a sleeper for a spot this year, with Trey Hillman’s penchant for Asian players and his overall upside as a former top prospect

Other AL Central NRIs: Tomo Ohka, SP, White Sox (could be first in line for back-end rotation spot if injuries strike); Brad Eldred, 1B, White Sox (monster power, hasn’t been able to put it all together); Scott Elarton, SP, Indians (recovering from arm injuries); Brandon Duckworth , RP, Royals (potential long reliever, spot-starter); Hideo Nomo, SP, Royals (ties to manager Hillman, still has upside, fighting for last spot in rotation); Jason Smith, IF, Royals (super-utility type); Alejandro Machado, IF, Twins (last year’s rule V pick stuck with team but was hurt most of year); Jon Knott, 1B/OF, Twins

American League West Top 10 Non-Prospect Non-Roster Invitees:

1) Kevin Mench, OF, Rangers (7.5/5.0)
2) Mike Sweeney, DH, A’s (6.5/5.5)
3) Chris Reitsma, RP, Mariners (6.0/4.0)
4) Franklyn German, RP, Rangers (5.0/4.5)
5) Chris Shelton, 1B, Rangers (5.0/4.5)
6) Greg Norton, 1B/3B/OF, Mariners (5.5/4.0)
7) Kirk Saarloos, SP, A’s (6.0/3.5)
8) Arthur Rhodes, RP, Mariners (5.0/3.5)
9) Bronson Sardinha, OF, Mariners (4.0/3.5)
10) Jake Woods, RP, Mariners (3.5/3.5)

Recap: The Rangers brought back Kevin Mench as a NRI, but fully expect him to fill some role with the major-league team this year. He’s a great source of power when he’s hot, but his cold spells can be brutal. He’ll compete for a back-up outfield spot and is even seeing time at 1B where he could serve as a back-up, as well…………..Mike Sweeney’s career has been ravaged by injuries, but he’s still been able to put together modest production when healthy in the recent past. This could be the brittle veteran’s last hurrah, but it could be a fantasy relevant one (a la Frank Thomas in Oakland in 2006). If he makes the team, he could be their starting DH and if he still has pop and stays healthy, could be a reasonable bench filler in deep leagues………Chris Reitsma was the Mariners’ set-up man last year, but prolonged his struggles and got hurt. He was brought back on a minor-league deal and could be in the mix for a long relief spot, which is much better suited to his skills………..Franklyn German is a fireballer with monstrous size and a cannon for an arm. He can strikeout hitters at above-average rates, but his primary issue is his control. He’s wowed the Rangers’ staff so far and has worked closely on his control. If he can find a spot in the pen, he could be a nice sleeper in deep leagues……..Chris Shelton will be forever remembered for his record-setting April of 2006, but he’s still mashing at AAA and is dedicated to making it back to the majors as a power-hitting first-base back-up and is a potential DH with a great batting eye.

Other AL West NRIs: Dee Brown, OF, Angels (returned to majors for first time in almost a decade last year and hit well, but OF is crowded); Justin Knoedler, C, A’s (some pop, good defense, could fight for back-up catcher spot); Brooks Conrad, 2B, A’s (almost made top ten, spent six years in Astros system, has good pop, never got call-up); Todd Linden, OF, A’s; Roy Corcoran, RP, Mariners; Mark Kiger, IF, Mariners (former A’s top prospect’s only major-league experience is in playoffs); Jason Davis, RP, Mariners (was solid 12th pitcher for Indians recently); Sidney Ponson, SP, Rangers (could win rotation spot, but is an implosion waiting to happen); Jamey Wright, SP, Rangers; Edgardo Alfonzo, IF, Rangers (still capable defensively; bat has regressed rapidly but he isn’t giving up); Jason Ellison, OF, Rangers (potential source of SBs)

National League East Top 10 Non-Prospect Non-Roster Invitees:

1) Jorge Cantu, 3B, Marlins (8.0/5.0)
2) Odalis Perez, SP, Nationals (6.0/4.5)
3) Kris Benson, SP, Phillies (4.5/5.5)
4) Raul Casanova, C, Mets (5.5/3.5)
5) Jose Valentin, IF, Mets (5.0/3.5)
6) Val Pascucci, 1B/OF, Phillies (4.0/4.5)
7) Olmedo Saenz, 1B/3B, Mets (4.5/3.5)
8) Javy Lopez, C, Braves (4.0/4.0)
9) Pete Orr, IF, Nationals (4.5/3.0)
10) Joe Borchard, OF, Braves (4.0/3.0)

Recap:Now three years removed from his .286-28-117 breakout season of 2005, Jorge Cantu has gone from starter to back-up to now a non-roster invitee. His numbers have fallen each of the last three seasons, but as the favorite to win the Marlins’ third-base job, this is his best bet to finally rebound. His power was probably a bit overstated in 2005, but he can still be a useful bottom-of-the-order hitter if he stays focused…….Focus is something that has continually eluded starter Odalis Perez. He has the tools that scouts love, but he’s been a head case for most of his major-league career. He shows flashes of brilliance but they’re usually combated by a terrible walk rate and a susceptibility to the long ball. If he puts it all together, he could still be a useful fantasy starter, and he’s in the right place to do it, but he’s still a long shot……….Kris Benson was over-valued earlier in his career as a potential ace, but he’s shown he can be a capable middle-of-the-rotation innings-eater when healthy. He still has upside, but after missing all of 2007 with Tommy John surgery, he’ll have to fight his way back to the majors. He’ll open in AAA, but might not be there long if he’s fully recovered, especially with a weak back-of-the-rotation for the Phillies………….Val Pascucci hit .284-34-98 in AAA last year and has continually displayed great minor-league power. He hasn’t gotten an opportunity yet at age 29, mainly due to a high strikeout rate and poor defense. There’s not much room on the Phillies, but his power will eventually draw him some attention……Raul Casanova revived his career as a back-up for the Devil Rays last year and displayed surprising power. He could open as the Mets’ back-up to light hitting Brian Schneider with Ramon Castro nicked up…….Arguably the most intriguing of the bunch, former top-10 catcher Javy Lopez looks to reestablish his major league career with a return to his former team. It wasn’t long ago Lopez was one of the best hitting catchers in baseball and with dedication to his defense and arm this offseason, he could make for a solid back-up to Brian McCann.

Other NL East NRIs: Matt DeSalvo, SP, Braves (former Yankees upper-tier prospect who struggled in major league debut); Tim Corcoran, SP, Marlins; Bob Keppel, SP, Mets (former top Mets prospect has bounced around but is still young and has potential); Joe Nelson, RP, Marlins (looked very good in Royals’ pen in 2006, missed all of ’07 with arm injuries, potential closer); John Baker, C, Marlins (catcher spot is wide-open); Taggert Bozied, 1B/3B, Marlins; Jason Wood, IF, Marlins (long-time, organization favorite utility guy who could win roster spot despite pushing 40); John Gall, OF, Marlins; Alexis Gomez, OF, Marlins (AAA success has yet to be duplicated in majors; power overestimated); Tony Armas, SP, Mets (potential starter if injuries strike despite imploding last year); Juan Padilla, RP, Mets; Ricardo Rincon, RP, Mets (could be a Darren Oliver circa 2006 type to revive career in Mets’ bullpen); Anderson Hernandez, IF, Mets (good defense, no bat, no room in infield); Fernando Tatis, 3B, Mets; Brady Clark, OF, Mets (has 5th OF potential with some speed); Ben Johnson, OF, Mets; Matt Smith, RP, Phillies (solid lefty with good upside who could be a useful bullpen piece); Andy Tracy, 1B, Phillies (monster power in AAA, but past his prime now); Rob Bell, SP, Nationals; Ray King, RP, Nationals (was decent as lefty in pen last year, could return to role in 2008); Mike O’Connor, SP, Nationals; Dennis Tankersley, SP, Nationals (revived career with solid season in AAA, getting rotation shot at some point not out of the question); Jason Stanford, RP, Nationals; Wil Nieves, C, Nationals (backed up Jorge Posada last year, good defense, but couldn’t hit major league pitching); Bret Boone, 2B, Nationals (dominated in early 2000′s, but hasn’t played in two years and refuses to switch positions); Alex Escobar, OF, Nationals; Tommy Murphy, OF, Nationals (underrated; simply no room to stay in Angels’ system)

National League Central Top 10 Non-Prospect Non-Roster Invitees:

1) Corey Patterson, OF, Reds (8.0/6.0)
2) Josh Phelps, 1B, Cardinals (6.0/4.5)
3) Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B, Pirates (6.5/3.5)
4) Alex Cintron, IF, Cubs (6.5/3.5)
5) Brian Moehler, RP, Astros (6.0/3.0)
6) Juan Gonzalez, OF, Cardinals (5.0/4.0)
7) Andy Phillips, 1B/3B, Reds (5.5/3.5)
8) Nick Gorneault, OF, Astros (4.5/4.0)
9) J.R. House, C, Astros (4.0/3.5)
10) Jose Cruz, Jr., OF, Astros (4.0/2.5)

Recap:Much to the surprise of many, Corey Patterson was virtually ignored by many GMs and settled for a minor-league deal with the Reds, who have plenty of solid young prospects capable of handling CF, but also have Dusty Baker and his penchant for veterans. Patterson has emerged as the favorite in CF and as the team’s leadoff hitter and could be a nice deep sleeper. He has all the tools, but hasn’t been able to put them all together at once. At worst, he’ll be a great source of steals and show some pop……….Josh Phelps was a Yankee castoff last year after their 1B platoon went south, but joined the Pirates and hit .351 in 77 at-bats. It was enough to earn him a contract with the Cardinals, who could use a solid corner infield back-up with Scott Spiezio gone due to personal problems and potential surgery looming for Albert Pujols……Doug Mientkiewicz’s primary asset is his defense, but has occasionally surprised us with modest batting averages and occasional power. The Pirates want to make him a super-utility player and have him learning 3B, LF, and RF in addition to first base wizardry. He should make the team, but his offensive impact isn’t likely to warrant any fantasy attention…….Juan Gonzalez, like Javy Lopez, is attempt to revive his career after being one of the best hitters at his position in the 90’s. Sure, he probably did steroids and hasn’t been major-league relevant in almost five years, but in his last healthy season, he still put up quality production and appears to be in great shape. The problem is the Cardinals outfield is already crowded and he’s missed the last week of action due to injury…….Nick Gorneault was another Angels’ farm-system casualty as his eligibility ran out and the outfield was way too crowded to keep him around. He’s spent the last three years in AAA, hitting .293-26-108 in 2005, .283-15-73 in 2006, and .261-19-59 in 2007. He’s got a good enough bat to be a solid back-up and is a versatile defender. At age 28, if he finally gets his shot, he could reproduce Luke Scott’s success in Houston.

Other NL Central NRIs: Chad Fox, RP, Cubs (extensive arm injury, long shot, but phenomenal strikeout pitcher); J.D. Closser, C, Cubs; Koyie Hill, C, Cubs (former top prospect looking to regain offensive upside); Andres Blanco, IF, Cubs; Justin Lehr, RP, Reds (could fight for open spot in pen, former AAA closer, good source of strikeouts); Jerry Hairston, Jr., IF/OF, Reds (longshot for superutility role, could still be a source of steals); Runelvys Hernandez, SP, Astros; Mike DeJean, RP, Astros; Lance Niekro, 1B, Astros (could fight for back-up role, good power, not much else); Victor Diaz, OF, Astros; David Newhan, IF/OF, Astros (in mix for superutility role, could still surprise with bat); Abraham Nunez, IF, Brewers (defensive specialist whose offensive upside is well below 2006 career year); Laynce Nix, OF, Brewers (talented but inconsistent and earning bad rep as stubborn); Chris Narveson, SP, Brewers; Hector Carrasco, RP, Pirates (could be in mix for set-up man spot, has been surprisingly successful despite age and wear and tear); Casey Fossum, RP, Pirates; Jaret Wright, SP, Pirates (if injuries strike maybe he’ll a shot, but injuries will likely strike him first); Jorge Velandia, IF, Pirates; Ron Flores, RP, Cardinals (has been extensively used by LaRussa recently and could be back with thin bullpen); Cliff Politte, RP, Cardinals; Ron Villone, RP, Cardinals (pedestrian results with Yankees last year, but good veteran presence and possible lefty bullpen filler); D’Angelo Jimenez, IF, Cardinals

National League West Top 10 Non-Prospect Non-Roster Invitees:

1) Trot Nixon, OF, Diamondbacks (7.0/4.5)
2) Marcus Giles, 2B, Rockies (5.0/5.0)
3) Scott Podsednik, OF, Rockies (4.5/5.5)
4) Shawn Estes, SP, Padres (5.5/3.5)
5) Glendon Rusch, SP, Padres (5.0/3.5)
6) Rene Rivera, C, Dodgers (4.0/3.5)
7) John-Ford Griffin, OF, Dodgers (3.5/3.5)
8) Tanyon Sturtze, RP, Dodgers (4.0/3.0)
9) Jeff DaVanon, OF, Padres (4.5/3.0)
10) Chan Ho Park, SP, Dodgers (3.5/3.0)

Recap:After a solid finish to last year and a strong post-season showing, Trot Nixon is a favorite to fill the back-up outfield role for the Diamondbacks and give them the strong veteran presence they need. He doesn’t have much power in the tank any more, but can still be a quality back-up, hit for average, and be a solid option off the bench. His fantasy value is limited right now, but if Justin Upton struggles in right field, Nixon could be first in line for a starting opportunity……….Marcus Giles has watched his career rapidly go downhill and though he currently out of the mix for the Rockies 2B job, he has too much talent and too many hitting skills as a second baseman to think he won’t get another opportunity in the very near future. He’s got 15/15 potential but he’s struggled with his pitch selection and has been extremely inconsistent recently. If he gets another shot at the Rockies’ 2B job, he could be worth keeping an eye on, playing his home games in Coors Field………Scott Podsednik, like Giles, has watched his status gradually decline, but if he’s healthy, he’s still an instant fantasy option with his speed, assuming he’s on a major-league roster. Podsednik isn’t great defensively, doesn’t draw many walks, and has very little power, but his speed and intangibles have made him a worthy major-leaguer. If he’s healthy again, he should be back in the bigs at least as a back-up…………Padres’ GM Kevin Towers recently said veteran Shawn Estes is the tentative favorite for the 5^th rotation spot. It’s hard to put much stock into that considering Towers’ history of deceptiveness and the fact that Estes has been on the verge of retirement for the last five years. It’s not out of the realm he could win the 5^th spot and he’d benefit from playing in Petco Park, but it’s hard to imagine him ever having any fantasy value again…….Jeff DaVanon is a prototypical veteran back-up outfielder (who is actually older than Trot Nixon). He’s hit well in spurts, but is best served as a pinch-hitter and bench filler. His offensive upside is limited and his power has faded, but with the team’s make-up and lack of outfield depth, he should be back at some point, filling his role as a 5^th outfielder

Other NL West NRIs: Tim Raines, Jr., OF, D’Backs (not half as good as his father); Micah Bowie, RP, Rockies; John Koronka, SP, Rockies (great minor league pitcher, but stuff is lacking, doesn’t strikeout hitters); Victor Zambrano, SP, Rockies (if healthy, could make for intriguing bullpen arm); Matt Kata, IF, Rockies; Rick Asadoorian, RP, Dodgers (anti-Ankiel: former top hitting prospect struggled with mechanics and converted to pitcher); Jason Johnson, SP, Dodgers (was top-of-the-rotation starter for Orioles in last nineties, but career running on fumes now); Mike Koplove, RP, Dodgers; Mike Myers, RP, Dodgers (prototypical LOOGY, which means good chance at roster spot, but zero fantasy value); Ramon E. Martinez, IF, Dodgers; Terry Tiffee, 1B/3B, Dodgers (cheap potential corner infield back-up with some pop); Robert Fick, C/OF, Padres (could make roster in undefined role); Jody Gerut, OF, Padres; Victor Santos, SP, Giants; Brett Harper, 1B, Giants; Justin Leone, 3B, Giants (has hit well in AAA in career, still at prime age, could potentially do what other high-priced backup infielders do offensively at fraction of cost)

Before posting the results and recap of my own one-man mock draft, it is worth noting the criterion for the league in which I was drafting. The league settings employed are as follows: 12 teams, 24-man rosters (9-man starting lineup with flex/utility spot, 5-man starting rotation, 3 relief spots, 2 flex pitching spots, and 5 total bench spots), 6 x 6 head-to-head scoring (Hitting: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OPS; Pitching: W, K, SV, HLD, ERA, WHIP), and a mixed-league draft pool.

Round 1:
1. Team 1: Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY
2. Team 2: Hanley Ramirez, SS, FL
3. Team 3: David Wright, 3B, NYM
4. Team 4: Matt Holliday, OF, COL
5. Team 5: Jose Reyes, SS, NYM
6. Team 6: Miguel Cabrera, 3B, DET
7. Team 7: Chase Utley, 2B, PHI
8. Team 8: Albert Pujols, 1B, STL
9. Team 9: Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI
10. Team 10: Johan Santana, SP, NYM
11. Team 11: Jimmy Rollins, SS, PHI
12. Team 12: Alfonso Soriano, OF, CHC

Last year’s consensus #1 overall pick, Pujols drops to the mid-to-late first round this year partially because his line of .327-32-103 last season was arguably his worst pro season. More importantly, he has a torn ligament in his right elbow that will eventually require surgery. According to Pujols, it hasn’t effected his swing and he doesn’t plan to undergo surgery anytime soon. He’s hit 4 HRs already this spring, but if the Cardinals are out of contention by June or July and Pujols is in pain, they could opt to shut him down and have him undergo surgery so that he’s 100% for 2009.

Round 2:
13. Team 12: David Ortiz, 1B, BOS
14. Team 11: Grady Sizemore, OF, CLE
15. Team 10: Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL
16. Team 9: Carl Crawford, OF, TAM
17. Team 8: Ryan Braun, 3B, MIL
18. Team 7: Carlos Lee, OF, HOU
19. Team 6: Carlos Beltran, OF, NYM
20. Team 5: Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA
21. Team 4: Lance Berkman, 1B/OF, HOU
22. Team 3: Magglio Ordonez, OF, DET
23. Team 2: Brandon Phillips, 2B, CIN
24. Team 1: Vladimir Guerrero, OF, LAA

Lee often falls to the early third round after guys like Beltran, Ichiro, and Guerrero, as recent ADP reports show, but he has more power than any of them, has the most protection in the lineup, and might be one of the safest bets to hit 30 HRs and drive in 100 RBIs in a given season. He lacks the elite speed of Beltran, but he still swipes double-digit bags on an annual basis and the difference in total SBs is usually neglible. Meanwhile, he’s a lifetime .288 hitter, an RBI machine, scores around 100 runs every season, and gets to play his home games in hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park.

Round 3:
25. Team 1: Jake Peavy, SP, SD
26. Team 2: Victor Martinez, C, CLE
27. Team 3: B.J. Upton, 2B/OF, TAM
28. Team 4: Alex Rios, OF, TOR
29. Team 5: Mark Teixeira, 1B, ATL
30. Team 6: Brian Roberts, 2B, BAL
31. Team 7: Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN
32. Team 8: Nick Markakis, OF, BAL
33. Team 9: Curtis Granderson, OF, DET
34. Team 10: Russell Martin, C, LAD
35. Team 11: Brandon Webb, SP, ARZ
36. Team 12: Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL

Markakis’ current ADP of 47.15 has him going at the tail end of the 4th round, despite just turning 24 and coming off a .300-23-112-18 season and a .325-14-61-9 second half. He’s struggled in the first half of both pro seasons but has continued to heat up down the stretch and perform like an elite outfielder. He has 30/20 potential as his power continues to develop, and while the O’s will be rebuilding, the offense still has a strong core and will give Markakis ample opportunities to at least score runs if not drive them in as well. He could be one of the top 5-10 most well-rounded offensive producers in the OF.

Round 4:
37. Team 12: Hunter Pence, OF, HOU
38. Team 11: Adam Dunn, OF, CIN
39. Team 10: Garrett Atkins, 3B, COL
40. Team 9: Erik Bedard, SP, SEA
41. Team 8: Carlos Guillen, 1B/SS, DET
42. Team 7: Cole Hamels, SP, PHI
43. Team 6: Derek Jeter, SS, NYY
44. Team 5: Bobby Abreu, OF, NYY
45. Team 4: C.C. Sabathia, SP, CLE
46. Team 3: Travis Hafner, 1B, CLE
47. Team 2: Manny Ramirez, OF, BOS
48. Team 1: Chone Figgins, 2B/3B/OF, LAA

After hitting 42 HRs in 454 at-bats in 2006, Hafner looked like he could be the AL’s version of Ryan Howard in 2007, a pure-power masher who could draw a ton of walks even in a great lineup. Maybe it was because Hafner is older than most people think (30) or maybe he just couldn’t get his timing and contact down, but he fell well short of expectations while the offense around got better. Hafner has what scouts call “old player skills” – he hits for power, draws walks, but strikeouts a lot and isn’t useful on defense. The problem with old player skills is they make players age faster than they normally would and it could explain Hafner’s struggles. Either way, he’ll still give you 20-30 HRs a year, but he’s a high-risk, high-reward play this year.

Round 5:
49. Team 1: Corey Hart, OF, MIL
50. Team 2: Chris B. Young, OF, ARZ
51. Team 3: Justin Verlander, SP, DET
52. Team 4: Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY
53. Team 5: Jonathan Papelbon, RP, BOS
54. Team 6: Josh Beckett, SP, BOS
55. Team 7: Chipper Jones, 3B, ATL
56. Team 8: Torii Hunter, OF, LAA
57. Team 9: Aramis Ramirez, 3B, CHC
58. Team 10: Dan Haren, SP, ARZ
59. Team 11: Derrek Lee, 1B, CHC
60. Team 12: Aaron Harang, SP, CIN

Last year, I was able to snag Corey Hart in the 23rd round of my draft. This year, he’s not likely to make it past the 6th round. There’s still some risks here and some might be concern with his lack of resume’, but after joining the 20/20 club in his first full season as a pro, the sky is the limit for the 6’6” power-hitting righty. Hart is entering his prime at age 26 and despite a big frame with big power, he has a nice balance of speed, a good batting eye, a very few holes in his swing. Once he locked down an everyday job last season, he settled into the lineup and flirted with .300 for most of the season before finishing with a .295 AVG. He’ll score plenty of runs in a loaded lineup this year and could push for 30 HRs in 2008.

Round 6:
61. Team 12: Hideki Matsui, OF, NYY
62. Team 11: J.J. Putz, RP, SEA
63. Team 10: Vernon Wells, OF, TOR
64. Team 9: Carlos Zambrano, SP, CHC
65. Team 8: Eric Byrnes, OF, ARZ
66. Team 7: Joe Nathan, RP, MIN
67. Team 6: Joe Mauer, C, MIN
68. Team 5: John Smoltz, SP, ATL
69. Team 4: Scott Kazmir, SP, TAM
70. Team 3: Brad Hawpe, OF, COL
71. Team 2: Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA
72. Team 1: Jason Bay, OF, PIT

Zambrano was the 11th pitcher selected in this draft and while he’s been a top-ten stalwart in years past, he’s dropped down a bit in the rankings after a questionable 2007 season. He’s still one of the most reliable pitchers in fantasy baseball, winning 13+, striking out 168 or more batters, and posting a sub-4.00 ERA for the fifth straight season last year, but there were bouts of inconsistency and he battled all season to keep his ERA under 4.00. He finished strong and got his ERA just under 4.00 (3.95) en route to winning a career-high 18 games, but his struggles with runners on base and in scoring position and a noticeable dropoff in strikeouts drops him out of the top ten this year. He might’ve tried voerpitching a bit before he settled down after getting his new contract, and though he may be a safer pick than some of the starters that went before him, he seems to have lost a bit of his dominating edge going into 2008.

Round 7:
73. Team 1: Francisco Rodriguez, RP, LAA
74. Team 2: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, SD
75. Team 3: Miguel Tejada, SS, HOU
76. Team 4: Brian McCann, C, ATL
77. Team 5: Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS
78. Team 6: Carlos Pena, 1B, TAM
79. Team 7: Tim Linecum, SP, SF
80. Team 8: Roy Halladay, SP, TOR
81. Team 9: Gary Sheffield, OF, DET
82. Team 10: Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX
83. Team 11: Roy Oswalt, SP, HOU
84. Team 12: Howie Kendrick, 2B, LAASecond base is the deepest it’s ever been thanks to in part to hitters like Kendrick, who is one of the premier second-tier 2B after the elite names (Utley, Phillips, Cano, Upton, Roberts). He’s one of many second basemen, who can hit for average, display some pop and speed, and score runs at the top of his lineup. The only thing that has stopped Kendrick from a complete breakout has been injuries, but he’s healthy going into this season. He’s a career .306 hitter in 160 major-league games, including hitting .322 last year with 5 HRs, 5 SBs, and 39 RBI in a half-season’s workload. He projects as a 10-15 HR/SB guy who can be in the top ten in batting average when the season’s over. He’s a solid defender who has the second base job locked up and while he’s also a good double hitter, his best asset is his ability to find the gap and get on base.

Round 8:
85. Team 12: Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN
86. Team 11: Matt Kemp, OF, LAD
87. Team 10: Delmon Young, OF, MIN
88. Team 9: Mike Young, SS, TEX
89. Team 8: John Lackey, SP, LAA
90. Team 7: Raul Ibanez, OF, SEA
91. Team 6: Brett Myers, SP, PHI
92. Team 5: Chris Young, SP, SD
93. Team 4: Takashi Saito, RP, LAD
94. Team 3: Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL
95. Team 2: Ben Sheets, SP, MIL
96. Team 1: Todd Helton, 1B, COL

This year’s sleeper of all sleepers, Matt Kemp appears to be on the precipice of a complete emergence to stardom. He’s a five-tool talent who has everything you look for in a great hitter: he’s got plenty of power, he’s big and plenty of natural strength, he can hit for average, he can draw walks, and is nimble on the base paths. When he got his first cup of coffee in 2006, he tore up major-league hitting before pitchers caught up with him. In 2007, he got his call-up and did the same thing, except this time, pitchers didn’t catch up with him. He hit .342-10-42-10 in only 298 at-bats last season. He’s still very raw at age 23, but he’s a seasoned minor league hitter who is ready for an everyday gig and he’ll get his chance under new manager Joe Torre. He’ll be drafted as #3 OF, but if all goes right, he could be a high-end #2 OF by the end of the year.

Round 9:
97. Team 1: Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
98. Team 2: Chad Billingsley, SP, LAD
99. Team 3: Fausto Carmona, SP, CLE
100. Team 4: Edgar Renteria, SS, DET
101. Team 5: James Shields, SP, TAM
102. Team 6: Shane Victorino, OF, PHI
103. Team 7: A.J. Burnett, SP, TOR
104. Team 8: Orlando Cabrera, SS, CWS
105. Team 9: Billy Wagner, RP, NYM
106. Team 10: Mike Lowell, 3B, BOS
107. Team 11: Adrian Beltre, 3B, SEA
108. Team 12: Javier Vazquez, SP, CWS

Billingsley will be inevitably overlooked by many owners since he’s technically the Dodgers’ #5 starter, but he could outperform half of the league’s top-of-the-rotation starters in 2008. He was the Dodgers’ #1 pick in 2003 and sailed through the minors, earning top prospect billing. He got his call-up in 2006 and while he posted a 1/1 K/BB rate, struggled with control, and didn’t overpower hitters like scouts knew he could, he still posted a 3.80 ERA as a rookie. He worked out his control problems last year, became a fixture in the rotation, and began to reach his untapped potential. First he was an effective reliever, but then finished the year making 20 starts and going 12-5 with a 3.31 ERA. His control resolved, he not only lowered his WHIP by 0.34, he also increased his strikeout rate to nearly 1 K/IP (141 K in 147.0 IP) and avoided mistakes, allowing only 15 HRs. He may have to wait to become a top-of-the-rotation pitcher for the Dodgers, but there’s nothing stopping him from becoming a top-of-the-rotation pitcher in fantasy baseball in 2008.

Round 10:
109. Team 12: Jorge Posada, C, NYY
110. Team 11: Rich Hill, SP, CHC
111. Team 10: Pedro Martinez, SP, NYM
112. Team 9: Dan Uggla, 2B, FL
113. Team 8: Jose Valverde, RP, ARZ
114. Team 7: Rafael Furcal, SS, LAD
115. Team 6: Matt Cain, SP, SF
116. Team 5: Andruw Jones, OF, LAD
117. Team 4: Chien-Ming Wang, SP, NYY
118. Team 3: James Loney, 1B, LAS
119. Team 2: Bobby Jenks, RP, CWS
120. Team 1: Ken Griffey, Jr., OF, CIN

One player whose value is amongst the hardest to gauge this offseason is Pedro Martinez. He’s truly one of the players that fantasy owners either love or hate and the most recent ADP report says it all, as he’s gone as high as the 10th round and as low as the 18th round in drafts. For every positive about Pedro this year, there’s an equally convincing negative, and vice versa. He’s an established dominating pitcher (but he’s lost some speed on his fastball), he’s healthy this spring (but he’s aging and fragile), he’s got a great lineup behind him to win games (but the lineup is banged-up), and he pitches in a pitcher’s park (but he’s struggled mightily on the road since joining the Mets). The fact is, when he came back last year, he looked like the Pedro of old, going 3-1 in 5 starts, posting a 32/7 K/BB rate in 28.0 IP and not allowing a single HR. The problem is at age 36 and with his recent injuries, he’s as likely to look like he’s in his prime as he is being past his prime, depending on his health and velocity.

Round 11:
121. Team 1: Phil Hughes, SP, NYY
122. Team 2: Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS
123. Team 3: Kelvim Escobar, SP, LAA
124. Team 4: Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, CIN
125. Team 5: Tim Hudson, SP, ATL
126. Team 6: John Maine, SP, NYM
127. Team 7: Jeff Francoeur, OF, ATL
128. Team 8: Jeff Francis, SP, COL
129. Team 9: Francisco Cordero, RP, CIN
130. Team 10: Yunel Escobar, 2B/SS/3B, ATL
131. Team 11: Jim Thome, DH, CWS
132. Team 12: Clay Buchholz, SP, BOS

One of my favorite undervalued players in 2008, Escobar is not only ready to be an instant fantasy starter despite having the ADP of a back-up, but he’s also eligible at 2B, SS, and 3B in most fantasy leagues. He did a great Edgar Renteria impression when Renteria got hurt last year and finished the year filling in more than adequately as needed. He’s a 25-year old former 2nd round pick who’s ready to take over at SS for the Braves on an everyday basis after hitting .326-5-28-5 in 319 at-bats last year. Most impressively, for a free swinger who’ll rack up plenty of hits, he maintains an impressive walk-to-strikeout rate (27:44 in 2007), and had a .385 OBP last season. He won’t develop much more power, but he’ll get more opportunities to steal bases in 2008 and could usurp Kelly Johnson for the leadoff role and post a triple-digit runs scored total.

Round 12:
133. Team 12: Mariano Rivera, RP, NYY
134. Team 11: Brad Penny, SP, LAD
135. Team 10: Kosuke Fukudome, OF, CHC
136. Team 9: Paul Konerko, 1B, CWS
137. Team 8: Chad Cordero, RP, WAS
138. Team 7: Dustin McGowan, SP, TOR
139. Team 6: Rafael Soriano, RP, ATL
140. Team 5: Placido Polanco, 2B, DET
141. Team 4: Adam Wainwright, SP, STL
142. Team 3: Willy Taveras, OF, COL
143. Team 2: Kevin Youkilis, 3B, BOS
144. Team 1: J.J. Hardy, SS, MIL

Soriano sldies pretty far down the closer rankings since he’s never been a fulltiem closer and only racked up 9 saves last year, while battling injuries. This year he’s the undisputed closer and despite extensive ninth-inning experience, his track record says he’s more than ready for the job. As the Mariners’ set-up man in 2006, he struck out 65 in 60.0 IP while posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Last year, he maintained a near 1 K/IP strikeout rate and lowered his WHIP to 0.86, but saw his ERA jump to 3.00 as he pitched a handful of games not at 100% and gave up twice as many HRs as he did in 2006. The good news is he didn’t cave under pressure, looking sharp in the ninth-inning and posting a 2.89 ERA with runners in scoring position. The Braves are sure to be in contention and it should present plenty of save opportunities for Soriano in 2008. Just about every closer has some red flags this year, but not all of them have Soriano’s upside.

Round 13:
145. Team 1: Jered Weaver, SP, LAA
146. Team 2: Trevor Hoffman, RP, SD
147. Team 3: Joakim Soria, RP, KC
148. Team 4: Aaron Rowand, OF, SF
149. Team 5: Alex Gordon, 1B/3B, KC
150. Team 6: B.J. Ryan, RP, TOR
151. Team 7: Manny Corpas, RP, COL
152. Team 8: Jeremy Bonderman, SP, DET
153. Team 9: Tom Gorzelanny, SP, PIT
154. Team 10: C.J. Wilson, RP, TEX
155. Team 11: Kenji Johjima, C, SEA
156. Team 12: Pat Burrell, OF, PHI

Like Soriano, Wilson goes slightly later than I think he should, mainly because he lacks extensive ninth-inning experience and has never been a full-season closer before. But, like Soriano, he’s a great strikeout pitcher with a good repetoire of pitches who has thrived in the last two seasons as a reliever in every situation and role. He earned 12 saves after assuming closer duties in the second-half of the season and finished with a .303 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and .208 BAA. He’s improved in each of his three seasons as a pro, completely owns left-handed hitters (.112 BAA in ’07), and could blossom into a #1 CL by the end of the season.

Round 14:
157. Team 12: Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL
158. Team 11: Matt Garza, SP, TAM
159. Team 10: Ted Lilly, SP, CHC
160. Team 9: Jeremy Hermida, OF, FL
161. Team 8: Jeff Kent, 2B, LAD
162. Team 7: Michael Cuddyer, OF, MIN
163. Team 6: Ryan Garko, 1B, CLE
164. Team 5: Oliver Perez, SP, NYM
165. Team 4: Huston Street, RP, OAK
166. Team 3: Johnny Damon, OF, NYY
167. Team 2: Jose Guillen, OF, KC
168. Team 1: Joe Blanton, SP, OAK

A more-than-occasional victim of injury and bad luck, Hermida did his best to stay healthy (despite sporadic impediments) and his most satisfying season since being drafted in 2002. He finished as the everyday RF, hitting .296, slugging .501, and swatting 18 HRs and driving in 63 runs in 123 games. Like the rest of the lineup, he’ll miss Miguel Cabrera’s presence, but he’s got the talent and potential to be an adequate replacement and will get an opportunity to fill his void in the heart of the order. He’s 6’4”, 210 with a big frame and untapped power and if he can continue to stay healthy as he did last season, he could develop into a premier lefty power hitter. He has good left/right splits, hit .324 on the road, and .340-10-36 after the all-star break last year.

Round 15:
169. Team 1: Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS
170. Team 2: Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, SD
171. Team 3: Matt Capps, RP, PIT
172. Team 4: Billy Butler, 1B/OF, KC
173. Team 5: Geovany Soto, C, CHC
174. Team 6: Garret Anderson, OF, LAA
175. Team 7: Josh Hamilton, OF, CIN
176. Team 8: Mark Buehrle, SP, CWS
177. Team 9: Kelly Johnson, 2B, ATL
178. Team 10: Eric Gagne, RP, MIL
179. Team 11: Orlando Hudson, 2B, ARZ
180. Team 12: Hank Blalock, 3B, TEX

Kouzmanoff is still best drafted as a back-up in standard-sized leagues to open 2008, but after overcoming a .108 AVG to start the season, seeing his power gradually develop over the course of the year, and finishing with a solid line of production of .275-18-74, he could be an undervalued bench player this year. His home park and lineup won’t do him any favors and while he has tape-measure power, it’s still too inconsistent to expect it to result in more than 20-25 HRs in the immediate future. If he can continue to hit for doubles as he did last year and improve his batting eye, he could rival teammate Adrian Gonzalez’s production.

Round 16:
181. Team 12: Ian Snell, SP, PIT
182. Team 11: Joe Borowski, RP, CLE
183. Team 10: Stephen Drew, SS, ARZ
184. Team 9: Rich Harden, SP, OAK
185. Team 8: Evan Longoria, 3B, TAM
186. Team 7: Joba Chamberlain, RP, NYY
187. Team 6: Josh Willingham, OF, FL
188. Team 5: Juan Pierre, OF, LAD
189. Team 4: Dontrelle Willis, SP, FL
190. Team 3: Jason Isringhausen, RP, STL
191. Team 2: Derek Lowe, SP, LAD
192. Team 1: Joey Votto, 1B/OF, CIN

I don’t doubt Joba Chamberlain’s legitimacy and the fact that he’ll thrive in the right situation, but until his role is set, it’s hard to draft him much higher ebcause you don’t know how or when he’ll contribute. One thing is for sure, he’s not going to be the closer, so he can either return as a set-up man, racking up holds and strikeouts or move back into the rotation, which makes him much harder to project. The worst thing the Yankees could do is keep him guessing, not allow him to properly prepare for his role, and continually adjust his responsibilities throughout the season. The best bet is he’ll return to the bullpen, but with Joe Girardi high on Kyle Farnsworth and the acquisition of LaTroy Hawkins, his chances of racking up holds and vulturing saves will probably be fairly reduced. In the long term, he could be a great keeper to stash away, in the immediate future, it’s too murky to tell if and when he’ll be a serious fantasy contributor.

Round 17:
193. Team 1: Carlos Marmol, RP, CHC
194. Team 2: Randy Johnson, SP, ARZ
195. Team 3: Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, COL
196. Team 4: Lyle Overbay, 1B, TOR
197. Team 5: Andy Pettitte, SP, NYY
198. Team 6: Brad Lidge, RP, PHI
199. Team 7: Zach Grienke, SP, KC
200. Team 8: Rick Ankiel, OF, STL
201. Team 9: Jonathan Broxton, RP, LAD
202. Team 10: Kevin Gregg, RP, FL
203. Team 11: Jermaine Dye, OF, CWS
204. Team 12: Brandon Lyon, RP, ARZ

Marmol would probably go about five rounds higher if he was assured the role of closer after a brilliant 2007 season and a ridiculous 96 strikeouts in 69.1 IP. A regression would be expected even for the greatest pitchers, but he’s got a cannon for an arm and projects well into the future. His 1.43 ERA, his pitching arsenal, and his ability to sit down hitters at remarkable rates should give him the dge as closer. Nevertheless, Kerry Wood has been an organizational closer and Marmol might fit best as multi-inning set-up man or part of a closer-by-committee depending on how Piniella sorts things out.

Round 18:
205. Team 12: Todd Jones, RP, DET
206. Team 11: Rafael Betancourt, RP, CLE
207. Team 10: Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, CWS
208. Team 9: Shaun Marcum, SP, TOR
209. Team 8: Troy Percival, RP, TAM
210. Team 7: Ty Wigginton, 1B/2B/3B, HOU
211. Team 6: Gil Meche, SP, KC
212. Team 5: Brian Wilson, RP, SF
213. Team 4: George Sherrill, RP, BAL
214. Team 3: Jhonny Peralta, SS, CLE
215. Team 2: Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAS
216. Team 1: Kerry Wood, RP, CHC

Like Yunel Escobar, Wigginton is capable of being at least an adequate starter while simultaneously offering three-positional flexibility. He’s got plenty of pop, will play everyday in a powerful lineup in a hitter-friendly home park and hitter-friendly NL Central, and drafting him in the latter stages is an efficient way to fill out your bench.

Round 19:
217. Team 1: Julio Lugo, SS, BOS
218. Team 2: Felipe Lopez, 2B/SS, WAS
219. Team 3: Barry Zito, SP, SF
220. Team 4: Hideki Okajima, RP, BOS
221. Team 5: Jason Schmidt, SP, LAD
222. Team 6: Akinori Iwamura, 3B, TAM
223. Team 7: Brian Fuentes, RP, COL
224. Team 8: Ivan Rodriguez, C, DET
225. Team 9: Scott Rolen, 3B, TOR
226. Team 10: Jeremy Guthrie, SP, BAL
227. Team 11: Chuck James, SP, ATL
228. Team 12: Casey Blake, 1B/3B/OF, CLE

Any chance of Julio Lugo being a fantasy starting SS in standard sized leagues this year went out the window when he finished with a .237 AVG last year. Take away the .237 AVG though and replace it with his .271 lifetime mark or the .280 clip he hit in the second-half and his numbers are just as good, if not better, than Rafael Furcal’s. Lugo benefitted from a great lineup, but showed decent power for the second year in a row, hitting 8 HRs and 36 doubles, and driving in 73 runs. Most importantly, his elite speed didn’t disappoint, racking up 33 SBs in 39 attempts. The Red Sox were tempted to move Lugo, but stayed committed to him. We saw Renteria struggle under the bright lights of Fenway and perhaps he could’ve improved in a second season. Lugo will get the opportunity as he’ll back in 2008, immersed in their deep lineup, and expected to rebound to borderline starter-quality value.

Round 20:
229. Team 12: Scott Shields, RP, LAA
230. Team 11: Mike Lamb, 3B, MIN
231. Team 10: Derrick Turnbow, RP, MIL
232. Team 9: Ramon Hernandez, C, BAL
233. Team 8: Jon Lester, SP, BOS
234. Team 7: Ryan Theriot, 2B/SS, CHC
235. Team 6: Jake Westbrook, SP, CLE
236. Team 5: Pat Neshek, RP, MIN
237. Team 4: Kazuo Matsui, 2B, HOU
238. Team 3: Andrew Miller, SP, FL
239. Team 2: Carlos Delgado, 1B, NYM
240. Team 1: Joaquin Benoit, RP, TEX

Turnbow has everything you look for in a middle relief pitcher in 2008. He’s a strikeout machine, his career ERA is solid, he has closing experience and the trust of his team, and he’s the set-up man to an oft-injured tentative closer. If Eric Gagne doesn’t get hurt, Turnbow should rack up plenty of holds and strikeouts as the set-up man. If he does get hurt, he could be a mid-tier fantasy closer on what is expected to be a winning ball club.

Round 21:
241. Team 1: Bengie Molina, C, SF
242. Team 2: Heath Bell, RP, SD
243. Team 3: Tony Pena, RP, ARZ
244. Team 4: Justin Upton, OF, ARZ
245. Team 5: Richie Sexson, 1B, SEA
246. Team 6: Aaron Hill, 2B, TOR
247. Team 7: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, TEX
248. Team 8: Masahide Kobayashi, RP, CLE
249. Team 9: Jeremy Accardo, RP, TOR
250. Team 10: Kyle Kendrick, SP, PHI
251. Team 11: Bronson Arroyo, SP, CIN
252. Team 12: Scott Baker, SP, MIN

Team 4 was almost entirely devoid of power at this stage and while they could’ve used a veteran base stealer to ease their concerns, Justin Upton is a much more intriguing option. The uber-talented, arguably-most-toolsy prospect in all of baseball right now is in line to win the starting right field job for the Diamondbacks and they are not only watching flex his power but emphasizing his use of speed. Upton has 20 HR potential, but he also has a 50 SB ceiling and he could reach sooner than owners may think if the Diamondbacks are as committed to turning him into a stolen base machine as they say they are. He’s still extremely raw, but like his brother, his talent will eventually shine through. Until it does, he should at least get plenty of playing time and plenty of opportunities to rack up the steals.

Round 22:
253. Team 12: Carlos Villanueva, SP, MIL
254. Team 11: Justin Speier, RP, LAA
255. Team 10: Aaron Heilman, RP, NYM
256. Team 9: Jon Garland, SP, LAA
257. Team 8: Mike Mussina, SP, NYY
258. Team 7: Greg Maddux, SP, SD
259. Team 6: Orlando Hernandez, SP, NYM
260. Team 5: Khalil Greene, SS, SD
261. Team 4: Bob Howry, RP, CHC
262. Team 3: Gary Matthews, Jr., OF, LAA
263. Team 2: Ian Kennedy, SP, NYY
264. Team 1: Chad Gaudin, SP, OAK

Speier missed all of May and June last season due to an extended version of a stomach flu and he didn’t regain his full strength until almost September, struggling mightily in the month of August. Despite his poor health and August implosion, he still finished the year with 47 strikeouts in 50.0 IP, a 2.88 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 24 holds. He’s never had any major arm injury and has pitched in 50+ games for seven straight seasons (last year included). Considering it’s highly unlikely he’ll catch the flu again in 2008 and he’s had three straight sub-3.00 ERA season, there’s no reason to doubt his abilities as a top 10-12 non-closing fantasy RP. He may not be the setup man with Scot Shields, but benefits by garnering more holds in a less-pressured environment on a winning team with plenty of close games as a result of their team philosophies.

Round 23:
265. Team 1: Miguel Batista, SP, SEA
266. Team 2: Jon Rauch, RP, WAS
267. Team 3: A.J. Pierzynski, C, CWS
268. Team 4: Shawn Hill, SP, WAS
269. Team 5: David Weathers, RP, CIN
270. Team 6: Rafael Perez, RP, CLE
271. Team 7: Matt Guerrier, RP, MIN
272. Team 8: Manny Delcarmen, RP, BOS
273. Team 9: Scott Linebrink, RP, CWS
274. Team 10: Michael Bourn, OF, HOU
275. Team 11: Luis Castillo, 2B, NYM
276. Team 12: Daric Barton, 1B, OAK

Barton has always been considered a prized prospect since he was drafted by the Cardinals as a catcher. Since then, he’s been dealt to the A’s, converted to first base, and is ready to become an everyday starter and make Dan Johnson obsolete. He’s a smallish player at 5’11 195 but has underestimated power and has one of the best batting eyes in all of baseball; his career 313:266 BB:K rate in the minor leagues is a testament to this. His power could develop as a major leaguer despite low HR outputs in the minors (a la James Loney), but at worst, he should be a .290-.300 hitter, an OBP machine, and drive in a good chunk of runs. Considering he usually goes undrafted despite being an AL ROY front-runner, he’s a great low-risk, high-reward pick as the draft nears an end.

Round 24:
277. Team 12: Peter Moylan, RP, ATL
278. Team 11: Yasuhiko Yabuta, RP, KC
279. Team 10: Adam Loewen, SP, BAL
280. Team 9: Wandy Rodriguez, SP, HOU
281. Team 8: Frank Thomas, DH, TOR
282. Team 7: Brian Bannister, SP, KC
283. Team 6: Kevin Correia, SP/RP, SF
284. Team 5: Chad Qualls, RP, ARZ
285. Team 4: Chris Carpenter, SP, STL
286. Team 3: Al Reyes, RP, TAM
287. Team 2: Brandon Morrow, RP, SEA
288. Team 1: Matt Lindstrom, RP, FL

One of my favorite things to do toward the end of the draft is stash away elite players who will miss a good chunk of the season due to injury. Chris Carpente, when healthy, has been a top-5 pitcher in the NL in years past and with plenty of time to recover and work his way back to full strength, he could regain his old form by the All-Star break. Until then, he’ll merely take up a currently unused DL spot. He’s the definition of a low-risk, high-reward pick here, as you can easily move him to the DL once the season starts and probably pick up whoever you were targeting in the final round in his place off waivers.

Team-by-team Breakdown:

The View: After winning 13 games, striking out 239 batters, and posting a 3.48 ERA, Kazmir should’ve been in the top 10 drafted SPs, but did not for a variety of reasons. Many owners are concerned about his injury history and potential fragility, others worry that 13 wins is a ceiling for him on a team with such a proclivity for futility, and his WHIP of 1.38 is not much better than league-average. With the latest injury news, regardless of severity, it’ll likely scare off even more owners. Considering he’s averaging 30 starts over the last three seasons, he might only miss one start while opening the season on the DL, and the fact that the Rays are improved team, he could be a steal as a #2 SP in 2008.

He’s got the potential to get even better and he’s capable of leading the majors in strikeouts (he finished one short of ML lead behind Jake Peavy last year). He’ll still carry the injury red flag for the next couple of seasons, despite relative good health over the last three years, and it will hurt his draft status as a result. Nevertheless, he’s got everything needed to be a bona fide ace and a top-5 SP in the coming seasons. He may never be a 20-game winner in Tampa, but with his strikeout rate and peripherals he doesn’t need to be. If you’ve already drafted, now might be the best time to make an offer to Kazmir owners, who could be nervous that he’ll start the year on the DL and may be willing to sell low on the 24-year old lefty.